Search found 10056 matches

by HomerJ
Wed Oct 18, 2017 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: anhybody buying bitcoin
Replies: 23
Views: 1205

Re: anhybody buying bitcoin

anybody buying bitcoin I'm buying with a small amount when I hear one guy just made 6 million with the investment of $ 50 k ( true story ????) so what do you take on this Back in 2011, I almost went through the trouble of making a coinbase account and putting maybe a hundred bucks in there just for...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction
Replies: 38
Views: 2942

Re: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction

Noted author Peter Bernstein provided this insight: “In the end, what matters is the quality of our decisions in the face of uncertainty.” I agree with Bernstein. If the decision is full speed ahead with CAPE at 31, I doubt the quality of the decision. Our uncertainty about the dates of corrections...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction
Replies: 38
Views: 2942

Re: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction

I think the primary benefit of being concerned about a market correction is that it focuses attention on the investor's risk tolerance. If you are so concerned about current market valuations that you are willing to withdraw money from stocks to pare your allocation, or to defer adding stocks to ma...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction
Replies: 38
Views: 2942

Re: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction

Elm noted that while the CAPE ratio for the U.S. market is currently hovering around two standard deviations above average, there aren’t enough equivalent periods in the historical record to construct a statistically significant data analysis.
The irony is thick enough to cut with a knife.
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is Florida Over, 2017
Replies: 48
Views: 5390

Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Florida is flatter than Kansas. In 100 years, it may be 80% underwater. But maybe not. In 10-30 years, most of it will still be fine. Miami's flooding will get worse and worse though, I definitely wouldn't invest there, even in the short term. You can't even put up walls around Miami, because it's b...
by HomerJ
Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla roof deposit: Anyone paid one?
Replies: 16
Views: 2064

Re: Tesla roof deposit: Anyone paid one?

chuppi wrote:
Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:52 pm
Tesla roof comes with lifetime warranty.
What happens if Tesla goes out of business?
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Boglehead vs Mr Money Mustache philosophies]
Replies: 203
Views: 13625

Re: [Boglehead vs Mr Money Mustache philosophies]

And if you want to feel good about your 'footprint', plant a few trees! They _eat_ carbon :D You need money to buy land and seedlings. :) Me, I feel good about my "footprint" by buying a jetski that has 99% less emissions than (I'm guessing) the original jetski invented in the 70s. To paraphrase MM...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Made a career mistake- advice/next steps
Replies: 35
Views: 5561

Re: Made a career mistake- advice/next steps

The OP is thinking about leaving after 4 months. We tell him that's fine, but don't make a habit of it (leaving jobs very quickly), because it gets harder to find a new job if you start to look like a "job hopper". You stated that "job hopping" worked out very well for you without a time context. Th...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Boglehead vs Mr Money Mustache philosophies]
Replies: 203
Views: 13625

Re: [Boglehead vs Mr Money Mustache philosophies]

It is interesting reading the responses on this thread. Bringing the thread back on topic. Would you all agree then that the MMM philosophy in a nutshell is to lower your living expenses to the bare minimum, and then pursue an early retirement via a big enough portfolio that it provides you with th...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 11, 2017 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Boglehead vs Mr Money Mustache philosophies]
Replies: 203
Views: 13625

Re: [Boglehead vs Mr Money Mustache philosophies]

The topic is supposed to be the MMM PHILOSOPHY vs the BH one... The MMM philosophy is that one can live extremely frugal and happy for 50 years. Trouble is, he doesn't know if that's true. Living like that for a couple of years when young and healthy, sure. I lived extremely frugal in college, and ...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Made a career mistake- advice/next steps
Replies: 35
Views: 5561

Re: Made a career mistake- advice/next steps

Don't believe anything from your previous employer. Several months is not enough time to find out if this is a bad fit. Work with your new employer to see what plans they have for you and show them they are getting value for you by correcting the dysfunction. Give it at least 6 months, and before y...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Made a career mistake- advice/next steps
Replies: 35
Views: 5561

Re: Made a career mistake- advice/next steps

basspond wrote:
Tue Oct 10, 2017 3:21 am
you don't want to be known as the person who hops from job to job.
The OP can make one more quick jump without being labeled a job hopper, but he'll want to be sure the next job is a good fit, because jumping again right away will be more difficult.
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% in bond to wait for market crash?
Replies: 122
Views: 11639

Re: 100% in bond to wait for market crash?

One more note. There WILL be a crash. It could indeed start tomorrow, or maybe not for another 5-10 years. No one knows. But since it COULD happen tomorrow, you should set an AA (Asset Allocation) that you can hold through a crash. That's why I'm 50/50. Don't make huge bets with your money by going ...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% in bond to wait for market crash?
Replies: 122
Views: 11639

Re: 100% in bond to wait for market crash?

Sure, if you could just invest in stocks during the good times, and avoid stocks in the bad times, you'd make more. But there are too many variables to make predicting the stock market possible. A single variable like PE ratio is not enough. PE ratios have been historically high since 1992. (Since 2...
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Boglehead vs Mr Money Mustache philosophies]
Replies: 203
Views: 13625

Re: [Boglehead vs Mr Money Mustache philosophies]

You cannot live on 25k for a family of three and be able to afford full health insurance without subsidies or fund a college education. You can opt out of insurance or not pay for your kids education which is a huge risk and a bad idea for most people. This is one of my biggest questions in the MMM...
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Boglehead vs Mr Money Mustache philosophies]
Replies: 203
Views: 13625

Re: [Boglehead vs Mr Money Mustache philosophies]

I would say bogleheads desire to live a “normal” lifestyle, ie, car, own their own home, desire to live a middle class to upper middle class lifestyle, expect to retire a Little early (say 50-60) with a very substantial nest egg. Savings rate in the 15-30% range. Mustachians live extremely modest l...
by HomerJ
Sun Oct 08, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Third time in my 32 year career I have been laid off
Replies: 87
Views: 10014

Re: Third time in my 32 year career I have been laid off

I have only been investing in real estate since late 2013.. Edit 2: Yes, only on BH.org is investing in one of the most profitable and desirable market in the U.S. "risky" and "not diversified enough". You really don't have enough experience to be lecturing people about investing. You are EXACTLY t...
by HomerJ
Sun Oct 08, 2017 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17
Replies: 87
Views: 11992

Re: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17

If I were 15-20 years younger I would not touch anything. Let the money ride. However being 60.5years and retirement (my choice or not) possible at any time, I have moved to a much more conservative stance. My top priority is to preserve funds for use before SS starts. One should definitely be more...
by HomerJ
Sun Oct 08, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17
Replies: 87
Views: 11992

Re: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17

""One thing that I strongly urge: Don't ever, ever, ever if you're an investor think of being out of the market or in the market," Bogle said. Instead, an investor should adjust his or her asset allocation." Ugh, what happened to stay the course? "Adjusting" one's asset allocation based on what the...
by HomerJ
Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla S
Replies: 1002
Views: 171925

Re: Tesla S

Read an article today. A little scary. http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/tesla-is-struggling-to-build-the-model-3-%e2%80%94-heres-why/ss-AAt1Jfk?ocid=spartandhp#image=1 The carmaker is on pace to sell 100,000 vehicles in a year for the first time in its 14-year history. But it's also far, far...
by HomerJ
Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area Real Estate
Replies: 154
Views: 14124

Re: Bay Area Real Estate

Yes, millionaire next door metric. It's extremely flawed for people who invest a lot of money in their personal skill capital, like doctors, but it's a useful for the vast majority of people as a validator of prodigous accumulators of wealth or spendthrift Calvinists It's flawed because it uses "in...
by HomerJ
Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area Real Estate
Replies: 154
Views: 14124

Re: Bay Area Real Estate

Again, the suggestions to get a tech job elsewhere is mostly the same as suggesting that NY high finance folks get a job at a bank in Des Moines so they can buy a cheaper house. You have a very limited view of the rest of the country. BATS exchange, which was started and is headquartered in Kansas ...
by HomerJ
Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area Real Estate
Replies: 154
Views: 14124

Re: Bay Area Real Estate

Comparing San Francisco (http://www.jackandpatty.com/2016/03/03/how-common-are-all-cash-sales-in-san-francisco/) to new york city (https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/24/realestate/buy-it-with-cash-mortgage-it-later.html): San Fransico all cash offers ~37%, NYC All cash offers ~44%. Different, but not ...
by HomerJ
Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area Real Estate
Replies: 154
Views: 14124

Re: Bay Area Real Estate

SV Housing doesn't have to crash, by the way. It could stabilize at 6x, 7x in 2-3 years, and then just be stagnant for a decade or two. But 10% annual increases going forward long-term is very unlikely. I was looking through the thread again, I don't think anybody is saying that the RE here will co...
by HomerJ
Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area Real Estate
Replies: 154
Views: 14124

Re: Bay Area Real Estate

Here's another interesting article https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/12/heres-why-some-start-ups-are-leaving-silicon-valley.html Still, Silicon Valley obviously maintains an appeal for many would-be entrepreneurs, as it offers deep funding and talent reservoirs that are largely unrivaled. But as people n...
by HomerJ
Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area Real Estate
Replies: 154
Views: 14124

Re: Bay Area Real Estate

Where would a very good programmer work in KC? How many such employers are there? What happens if you want to start a company? Venture capital? Talent? First off, I'm not talking just about KC. 95% of the U.S. is cheaper than NYC/SF/LA. California only has 10% of the Fortune 500 companies, NY has a...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 04, 2017 11:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area Real Estate
Replies: 154
Views: 14124

Re: Bay Area Real Estate

ZipRecruiter defined a technical job by its content, not its employer. For example, receptionists working for software companies didn't count as tech jobs, but network administrators did, regardless of what company they worked for. I'm sorry but counting "network administrator" at a non-tech compan...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 04, 2017 11:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area Real Estate
Replies: 154
Views: 14124

Re: Bay Area Real Estate

Interest rates going up is not exactly a black swan event. As prices go up, and higher interest rates make mortgages more expensive, the demand part of the equation will decrease. <SNIP> In the context of this thread, there is nothing special about the Bay Area wrt interest rates. Sure the interest...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds
Replies: 64
Views: 7346

Re: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds

Copernicus wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:10 pm
the 1989 article
Total Bond Market Index Fund has returned about 6% a year since 1989. How much has cash returned?
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area Real Estate
Replies: 154
Views: 14124

Re: Bay Area Real Estate

https://www.cbsnews.com/media/americas-top-10-tech-cities-arent-on-the-coasts/ Hear the words "tech economy," and you're likely to think of the major cities that house the country's biggest companies: the San Francisco Bay area, Seattle, New York, possibly Boston. But if you're looking for a job in...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area Real Estate
Replies: 154
Views: 14124

Re: Bay Area Real Estate

There are not enough high income people to support that. I think that's where you're wrong. Why wouldn't the income and wealth (such as stock holdings and RSUs and foreign money) of enough people in the area keep up with the rate of growth of the stock market? Because the companies that pay those p...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 04, 2017 4:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area Real Estate
Replies: 154
Views: 14124

Re: Bay Area Real Estate

Not sure why people can accept that the stock market can do something like double in value every 10 years on average, but cannot accept that real estate in the economically strongest and most attractive areas in the US is likely to do something similar. They are not remotely the same thing. Human c...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 04, 2017 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM
Replies: 162
Views: 16209

Re: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM

I think there are some natural constraints, including that companies will increasingly arbitrage wage differentials - they may be willing to tolerate a labor force costing 1.5X the national average for a given profession, to be in the Bay Area. Maybe 2X. But at 3X, 4X, 5X, I think companies will be...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 04, 2017 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM
Replies: 162
Views: 16209

Re: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM

You conveniently ignored everything in my post. Once you stated that real estate investing is zero risk (#1), and it's easy to retire on a teacher's salary in 3-5 years after heavily investing in real estate (#6), I decided to stop reading. Do you realize how silly those claims are? Prices and rent...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 04, 2017 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM
Replies: 162
Views: 16209

Re: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM

goodenyou wrote:
Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:55 am
Real estate fluctuates just like any asset class. Over time, real estate goes up just like stocks
It's impossible for ALL real estate to go up as fast as the stock market, because wages do not go up that fast.
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 04, 2017 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM
Replies: 162
Views: 16209

Re: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM

Real estate in NYC, SF, LA, San Jose, and Honolulu has returned 9-11% YoY in capital appreciation and 6%+ in rent growth, over the last 40-50+ years. Year over year. This includes the downturns!! This is publicly available data. Stock market returned 11% a year over the past 40-50+ years. Year over...
by HomerJ
Wed Oct 04, 2017 12:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM
Replies: 162
Views: 16209

Re: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM

Among possible triggers: * Unfavorable tax changes at the city/state/national level * Unfavorable developments in the industry(s) that these cities dominate (tech, entertainment, finance, etc) * Shifts in those industries to cheaper areas * Political/social discord and/or spike in crime leads to lo...
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM
Replies: 162
Views: 16209

Re: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM

It's amazing to me that these people have put themselves in a position (by spending too much) where they still have to worry about money. To be fair though, it does take a lot of money to live and raise a family in those areas. It takes a lot of money to own two homes and rent in the Hamptons, yes....
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM
Replies: 162
Views: 16209

Re: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM

Some of the areas you mentioned are far from being a one-trick pony like you think. They are the most desirable areas for the educated, creative, entrepreneurial, and wealthy, and the industries there keep getting re-invented. If areas like NYC/SF/LA go down, the economy goes down, and with it the ...
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM
Replies: 162
Views: 16209

Re: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM

My friend who is worth $20M has $19.5M equity in real estate (but a lot more in total exposure to real estate because of his mortgages) and $500k in cash, and he just holds onto his properties forever, or 1031 exchanges them (deferring the taxes), in which case he would pass it onto his children an...
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM
Replies: 162
Views: 16209

Re: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM

Owning more real estate is always better than stock or MFs. Can rent out and declare huge paper loss in a pinch. Can pull out via HELOC or cash out refi. Plus, NYC and Bay area is as good as it gets. If you gave me an option of $10M of SF/LA/NY real estate or $10M in equities split 50/50 between ta...
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM
Replies: 162
Views: 16209

Re: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM

NYCguy wrote:
Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:31 pm
Thanks. Health and family is what really matters. Life is fragile.

Unfortunately, I don’t think $10 million is going to do it based on the numbers. That is what is stupid crazy about my life choices and situation.
Is it an option to make different choices and change your situation?
by HomerJ
Tue Oct 03, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM
Replies: 162
Views: 16209

Re: $10 million+ - Still Working and LBYM

OK, we have a mid-7 figure portfolio, so not quite in this crowd. But we can eat anything we want to ... either cooking at home or going out to a restaurant. So what do we do? Not anything special. How about you? As dinnertime approaches, do you already have plans? Or do you say, what do you want t...
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Go to cash now or in late December when i need the cash
Replies: 28
Views: 1920

Re: Go to cash now or in late December when i need the cash

I have decided (with helpful advice) to take money I need to assist with the down payment, flooring, and blinds from my Brokerage account. I will need around $7500- 10,000 from the account. I can sell now and hold as cash for 3 months, or wait until late December and then go to cash. I know it is c...
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Bull Market could last years
Replies: 89
Views: 9700

Re: Current Bull Market could last years

I'm pretty close to 100% stocks (with a little cash from dividends that I haven't reinvested yet). With the Federal Reserve ending QE and raising rates I think bonds are a bigger risk than stocks right now. The Vanguard Total Bond ETF (BND) has a negative return over the past year and has only retu...
by HomerJ
Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Bull Market could last years
Replies: 89
Views: 9700

Re: Current Bull Market could last years

I ignore stuff like this when it comes to investing. However, I have noticed a large uptick in unsold real estate (residential and commercial) around me. Two grocery chains have closed stores and the BJs that just opened a year ago is rumored to be considering closing. Also, the car dealerships aro...
by HomerJ
Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lost my job and looking for advice on next steps
Replies: 43
Views: 5197

Re: Lost my job and looking for advice on next steps

djpeteski wrote:
Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:30 am
I can't imagine considering retirement with a .5 million dollar mortgage and a kid in college. The ARM aspect of the mortgage would also scare the crap out of me.
You're ignoring the rest of the details.
by HomerJ
Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lost my job and looking for advice on next steps
Replies: 43
Views: 5197

Re: Lost my job and looking for advice on next steps

Many would rethink the aggressiveness of your portfolio, but you might be fine with it. It's not really if he's "fine with it". It's objectively very risky to have such an aggressive portfolio on the eve of retirement. Everything else looks pretty good, but I absolutely would dial back that AA to 5...
by HomerJ
Sat Sep 30, 2017 12:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area Real Estate
Replies: 154
Views: 14124

Re: Bay Area Real Estate

There's a tremendous supply/demand disparity in the Bay Area. Prices will stay strong. There are enough people with means to bid up any inventory that becomes available. If you can afford it and you think you'll stay for at least a few years, definitely buy. You don't know that prices will stay str...
by HomerJ
Sat Sep 30, 2017 12:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?
Replies: 99
Views: 6132

Re: Which is better a Cryptocurrency or Gold?

Not sure where the word worthless is coming from, talking crisis not end of the world stuff I was extrapolating from words like crisis and plummet. But if we assume a nice civilized crisis, with a leisurely plummet that allows everything to go on working much as before, then transacting in Bitcoin ...