Search found 12793 matches

by HomerJ
Thu Jul 18, 2019 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Just sat through a wealth-management sales pitch.
Replies: 41
Views: 2994

Re: Just sat through a wealth-management sales pitch.

A 2% guarantee is still a guarantee. What is a 10-year Treasury paying these days? And the Treasury doesn't have the upside of the annuity, if the market returns more than 8% CAGR (long term returns on the S&P are more like 10%). Why are you defending this? Serious question. (1) The written "guaran...
by HomerJ
Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Just sat through a wealth-management sales pitch.
Replies: 41
Views: 2994

Re: Just sat through a wealth-management sales pitch.

I just sat through 1-hour wealth-management sales presentation phone-call with a well-established 1% manager firm. It was a favor to a family friend whose daughter just started with that firm fresh out of college, and needed to meet a first month pitch quota. I provided my financial information in ...
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 17, 2019 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest
Replies: 28
Views: 1888

Re: Larry Swedroe: Next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest

columbia wrote:
Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:34 pm
I would interested in hearing about the most up to date version of the Larry Portfolio.
Follow up question: If it changes, doesn't that limit it's usefulness?
by HomerJ
Tue Jul 16, 2019 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

nedsaid wrote:
Tue Jul 16, 2019 12:44 pm
But in a market, nothing is independent of human behavior. In fact, people doing stupid things create lots of problems for the rest of us. It seems we are torturing the language here.
Excellent point.
by HomerJ
Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: No A/C in Office [not a safe work environment]
Replies: 86
Views: 7514

Re: No A/C in Office [not a safe work environment]

Ask to work from home. If not possible, bring in a fan.

And then start looking for another job.
by HomerJ
Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a home; Very HCOL Area
Replies: 40
Views: 3537

Re: Buying a home; Very HCOL Area

HCOL Area, property taxes well north of 10K annually (for not much property) - Is there ever a break-even point where home ownership in these kinds of areas are actually "worth it" financially? Perspective: In my area, you are spending 400K for a "fixer upper". For half a million, you're buying som...
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 15, 2019 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What to do in Little Rock
Replies: 23
Views: 1589

Re: What to do in Little Rock

Horse track is pretty cool
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 15, 2019 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

HomerJ - I can understand the policy of one-way rebalancing which amounts to a policy of not selling bonds in order to buy stocks -- i.e, the stock allocation is allowed to drift lower, but not higher than the initial AA. So, let's say that stocks have lost value and now represent 30% instead of yo...
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

50/50 stocks/bonds baby... And stop worrying about what people are writing on the Internet. Including me. :) I'd worry a lot less with about 25% in stocks and 75% in bonds. 50/50 has most of the risk concentrated in stocks. During those big drawdown periods, you'll be siphoning off your safe bonds ...
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Activity tracking- Fitbit charge versus Apple Watch 3
Replies: 7
Views: 474

Re: Activity tracking- Fitbit charge versus Apple Watch 3

Garmin makes the best fitness watches.
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Switching from passive to active management
Replies: 100
Views: 6875

Re: Switching form passive to active management

To be clear, I’m not exactly thrilled by the obscene fees I’d be paying. If everything goes as expected, they estimated I’d pay close to half a million dollars per year in fees. These fees include more than just portfolio management but still, it’s an insane amount of money per se no matter the siz...
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Switching from passive to active management
Replies: 100
Views: 6875

Re: Switching form passive to active management

And yet, I’m now considering a 70/30 allocation at this family office. Part of it is because they seem to limit the volatility quite a bit, and part of it is because I’m not “responsible” for major losses anymore, so somehow I feel comfortable with a more aggressive portfolio. Overall, it means I’l...
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

Forester wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:27 am
Frequency of correct guesses is much less relevant, than the payoff (or otherwise) from nailing the big calls.
True enough. Very good point.
by HomerJ
Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

Interest rates have dropped over the past 30 years from a high of 15%. This cannot repeat starting from today's rates. It most certainly can repeat. I don’t know what makes people think it can’t continue to happen. You think rates can drop from 3% to -9%? Dropping from 15% to 3% is a drop in 80% of...
by HomerJ
Sun Jul 14, 2019 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

Hey -- what's wrong with 50%? If I could bat .500 I'd be the greatest baseball player of all time! I'm sure I'm not one of the greatest baseball players of all time, so I'll take the guru. :D You can flip a coin and get 50%. Any "guru" who is less than 50% over 20+ years should be banned from TV an...
by HomerJ
Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

Larry has posted about gurus and forecasts. That is correct. Those are excellent articles, which is why I'm always confused when he makes forecasts himself. He didn't make a forecast but he was just sayin'. "just saying" is still a forecast. So I am gradually doing a program of Growth to Value reba...
by HomerJ
Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

Who are the most (least) accurate stock gurus? https://www.cbsnews.com/news/who-are-the-most-least-accurate-stock-gurus/ The following is a summary of CXO's findings: Across all forecasts, accuracy was worse than the proverbial flip of a coin -- just under 47 percent. The average guru also had a for...
by HomerJ
Sun Jul 14, 2019 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

My gosh, you can't make rational decisions without some form of forecasting. Of course you can. Sure, yes, you need to expect POSITIVE real returns to invest in something, but beyond that, no you don't need to forecast any finer than that. You're an old guy like me... You've seen the world. You wat...
by HomerJ
Sun Jul 14, 2019 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

Interest rates have dropped over the past 30 years from a high of 15%. This cannot repeat starting from today's rates. It most certainly can repeat. I don’t know what makes people think it can’t continue to happen. Are you saying that you see a reasonable possibility of the 10 year treasury yieldin...
by HomerJ
Sun Jul 14, 2019 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

I would agree that market and economic forecasts should be viewed with skepticism. They must have some value or no one would pay for them. Incorrect. People are dumb. I mean, really dumb. Look at me! But incomplete knowledge is sure a whole lot better than total ignorance. Nope... in investing, it'...
by HomerJ
Sun Jul 14, 2019 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

vineviz wrote:
Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:22 am
HomerJ wrote:
Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:06 pm

Interest rates have dropped over the past 30 years from a high of 15%.

This cannot repeat starting from today's rates.
It most certainly can repeat.

I don’t know what makes people think it can’t continue to happen.
You think rates can drop from 3% to -9%?
by HomerJ
Sun Jul 14, 2019 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

50/50 stocks/bonds baby... And stop worrying about what people are writing on the Internet. Including me. :) I'd worry a lot less with about 25% in stocks and 75% in bonds. 50/50 has most of the risk concentrated in stocks. During those big drawdown periods, you'll be siphoning off your safe bonds ...
by HomerJ
Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 27031

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

Many with whom I spend most mornings of a weekend day are retirees. I have been doing this for about 10 years. Most of them are highly educated, were quite successful in their career and are financially secure. My takeaway: I do not envy them. They have too much free time to put to meaningful use ....
by HomerJ
Sat Jul 13, 2019 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire
Replies: 284
Views: 27031

Re: Americans believe they need $1.7 million, on average, to retire

The very notion that any American household needs a minimum of $5 million to retire before age 65 is beyond ludicrous, even for those with a low risk tolerance. $5M lets you put aside $1M for LTC and other disasters, and spend $120K/yr at 3% from the other $4M. Doesn't seem all that ludicrous in an...
by HomerJ
Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why mutual funds are more dangerous than ETFs
Replies: 32
Views: 3433

Re: Why mutual funds are more dangerous than ETFs

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:59 pm
I am exposed to significant risk if there is a human error that causes the end-of-day execution price to be much higher than usual.
I disagree it's "significant". But if you feel strongly about this, I'm willing to agree to disagree.
by HomerJ
Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

I think the factor versus cap weight horse has been beaten to death in these 5 pages. Perhaps it's best to call a truce for a while and rest a while before the next round of combat. Garland Whizzer +1 Care to comment on "Nedsaid's" post (bottom page 8) on "Large Growth Trend" going forward? Thanks ...
by HomerJ
Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

This is a great point. But taken to the logical conclusion, there's also no way to be sure that investing in stocks is right. Is has been, historically, in many countries. Will that be true for the next 10, 100, 1000 years? Yep, that’s my point. We can’t be sure the equity premium is still there. E...
by HomerJ
Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why mutual funds are more dangerous than ETFs
Replies: 32
Views: 3433

Re: Why mutual funds are more dangerous than ETFs

If you're not buying/selling your fund daily, does it make a difference? Wouldn't any errors be smoothed out over time? I see it not affecting a buy and hold boglehead Do buy and hold investors not need to buy shares during their accumulating years and sell shares during their decumulating years? Y...
by HomerJ
Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why mutual funds are more dangerous than ETFs
Replies: 32
Views: 3433

Re: Why mutual funds are more dangerous than ETFs

So many posts by mutual fund lovers these days. Here is a strong counterpoint: https://www.wsj.com/articles/floor-traders-clash-with-nyse-11563010201?emailToken=e9c5d9fb13f39b97bdfce3a3b90950f1SyOhWkVQHYT++eDc5S8rMUvbfTEpwH7FRfUmXpaAbt5MSMQytn73hGLqm2RnusiA6Ijn2ABjiXB3a7B86h9yxw%3D%3D&reflink=artic...
by HomerJ
Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Timing the market
Replies: 28
Views: 1697

Re: Timing the market

It could go up 10 percent in that time. What if it goes up 45% before dropping? Here's a guy who inherited some money 3 years ago, and said the exact same thing. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=192940&p=2934858&hilit=timing#p2934858 I recently received an inheritance of ~$30,00...
by HomerJ
Fri Jul 12, 2019 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

Homer, I just give up. What is the point of the discussion? This is like debating how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. My advice is that you go to 100% Certificate of Deposit portfolio since no one knows anything about the stock market, nobody knows anything about risks, and nobody knows...
by HomerJ
Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

I guess my point is that the guesses are NOT well-informed or educated. They are still random shots in the dark. I guess you are making a much stronger point than I thought you were. I don't think we can be 100% confident in our predictions (or even 90%) but random shots in the dark seems like a pr...
by HomerJ
Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

One key metric I asked for was how long we should expect to wait. I didn't ask for an exact number or a perfect prediction. I simply asked for the expected value. I'm still not clear on what you mean by "how long we should expect to wait"? Wait for what, exactly? Expected out performance as compare...
by HomerJ
Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

I got some references to past historical data, which is largely meaningless to my current investment decisions. There's only one kind of data, and that is historical data. That is 100% false. You have a very different definition of "data" than I do. I use it in the context of scientific inquiry, to...
by HomerJ
Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

I think you are being a bit too dismissive of HomerJs larger point. We certainly know what the past data says and what it predicts if the future closely resembles the past. And we know what could happen is described by ranges of outcomes. What we don't know is how likely the future is to resemble t...
by HomerJ
Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

I think you are being a bit too dismissive of HomerJs larger point. We certainly know what the past data says and what it predicts if the future closely resembles the past. And we know what could happen is described by ranges of outcomes. What we don't know is how likely the future is to resemble t...
by HomerJ
Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

You don't have enough data points to be sure. You are proposing a definition of "information" which includes only data which represents past processes with 100% certainty AND describes processes that have a 0% of changing in the future. There is literally no data, in any field of knowledge, that me...
by HomerJ
Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

That's my problem with economic statistics. The math is correct. But it still doesn't let you predict the future with any accuracy. To be honest, I think the problem is that you think that what I wrote was a prediction. If I have a fair coin, observing 50% probability of "heads" on the next flip of...
by HomerJ
Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

That said, such quantification is certainly possible. I could tell you that a US SCV strategy is likely to outperform a US large cap strategy in 65% of five-year periods, for instance. Or that there is 7% chance that it will underperform by ten percent or more and a 15% chance it will outperform by...
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

That's why the scientific method was created - so that what is right or wrong is more than ever-changing opinions and rationalizations for why ones own position is correct no matter what the results. There is too much contradiction between stating we can't look at data within 10 or 20 or 30 years a...
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

What makes it REALLY hard is if ten years go by, it starts to look like the "best" strategy from 10 years ago isn't working, maybe information has changed, you think, but the guy who sold it to you tells you you're wrong to even question it. Wouldn't that be LESS hard if you had made the decision u...
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

DFSVX only did okay in the 1990s compared to Total Stock Market (since the stock market in general was doing so well) Where DFSVX really shined was in the early 2000s. The portfolio with DFSVX trounced the one with TSM for a few years (plus it was heavier on bonds and bonds did pretty well in the e...
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

I disagree that any economist can make the "best" decision today. There are too many unknown variables. Too many known variables with wide dispersions. No one knows the true odds. I don't think you're using the word "best" the way that the rest of the world uses that word. Making the best possible ...
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

But there's ALSO a chance your models are missing a variable or a variable has changed, and the "best" or right strategy is no longer what it was 10 years ago. Yes. And? If you make the best decision that you can today , based on the facts you have today , then your strategy is the optimal strategy...
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 483
Views: 19832

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

abc it simply comes down to who has the best strategy, which is difficult to know in advance This is the wrong way to frame the issue. And it is easy to demonstrate why as it is the mistake known as resulting. The "best" or right strategy is known in advance, what we don't know is if it will result...
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retiring Early Correlates with Greater Longevity ?
Replies: 47
Views: 4586

Re: Retiring Early Correlates with Greater Longevity ?

Interesting topic but way too many variables to take into account to reach any useful conclusion. The way I see it is if you have a job you enjoy, watch your diet and exercise, how many years you work in that field most likely will not impact your health. In fact it may improve it as you engage in ...
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1289
Views: 121417

Re: S&P 500 hit 3,000 today

MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:16 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:55 am
In 20 years, it will probably be over 12,000
That would be a 7% price CAGR alone (no dividends). Seems unlikely but would be nice.
10% nominal is the historical average (take away dividends makes it 7%-8%). May not happen, but I wouldn't call it unlikely.
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: De-Risking and Diversification aren't the same thing.
Replies: 45
Views: 2205

Re: De-Risking and Diversification aren't the same thing.

For the pre-Volcker era, the simulated data we have for long-term bond returns isn't directly comparable to the performance of long-term bonds after that for reasons that have nothing to do with inflation. That's a topic for another thread, just know that long-term bond returns before 1981 aren't r...
by HomerJ
Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: De-Risking and Diversification aren't the same thing.
Replies: 45
Views: 2205

Re: De-Risking and Diversification aren't the same thing.

My advice is to focus on the LTT only as they relate to the entire portfolio. If interest rates take a sharp turn upwards, that might hurt long-term Treasuries in the short-run but that would likely correspond to a HUGE surge in stocks. This is not something I've heard before... Didn't the market j...