Search found 10856 matches

by HomerJ
Wed May 23, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]
Replies: 71
Views: 4610

Re: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]

In that sense, the world cap protected against the risk of guessing wrong, and returned a solid return. If a Eurozone index fund had existed in 1900 it would have been the slam dunk choice, and it would have underperformed a hypothetical world index. This is a very good point. In 1900, Europe was a...
by HomerJ
Wed May 23, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]
Replies: 71
Views: 4610

Re: Theory: Total World Index a Sure Fire Win [VT/VTWSX]

I suppose some would argue that holding US only is also a surefire way to achieve acceptable results since our stock market is so large it is unlikely to deviate to greatly from the world mean. This is my argument. Everything is so connected these days that investing 100% U.S. is still pretty likel...
by HomerJ
Wed May 23, 2018 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you stop moving the goal posts.
Replies: 62
Views: 4520

Re: How do you stop moving the goal posts.

If I measure anything by my financial balances it is a sense of security There is no number higher than 100%. By definition, that is the highest it can be. :) Not sure I understand what you are driving at. You're already secure. 100% you won't run out of money. Continuing to work longer will not in...
by HomerJ
Tue May 22, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Career planning in IT/software development when over 40
Replies: 68
Views: 5252

Re: Career planning in IT/software development when over 40

Plenty of local IT jobs, both coding and support, in my midwest city. I laugh every time someone says "Everything is going to the cloud". Programmers aren't in the cloud, they use the cloud instead of local infrastructure, so coding jobs aren't going to go away because of the "cloud", and if datacen...
by HomerJ
Tue May 22, 2018 5:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Career planning in IT/software development when over 40
Replies: 68
Views: 5252

Re: Career planning in IT/software development when over 40

mrgeeze wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 8:47 am
One more thought.

Assuming your lifestyle will allow it,perrhaps you can get a security clearance beyond TS.
How does one get a security clearance anyway?
by HomerJ
Tue May 22, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you stop moving the goal posts.
Replies: 62
Views: 4520

Re: How do you stop moving the goal posts.

TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 4:13 pm
If I measure anything by my financial balances it is a sense of security
There is no number higher than 100%. By definition, that is the highest it can be.

:)
by HomerJ
Tue May 22, 2018 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: will the SP500 double in 7 years?
Replies: 100
Views: 10908

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

I'm mildly surprised by how many cast a vote for "yes," unless those BHs are guessing that based on unexpectedly-high inflation. If we have 10% nominal returns over the next 7 years and there is anything close to normal inflation over that time period, I'll turn cartwheels. Let's all meet back here...
by HomerJ
Tue May 22, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3
Replies: 950
Views: 74173

Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

I cant say its a snake oil scheme but It seems to me that at its core the Tesla series can be a fine product but doesn't have the manufacturing prowess, a good supply line and some quality control issues. It appears Musk has moved on and is more interested other endeavours might the time be right f...
by HomerJ
Tue May 22, 2018 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you stop moving the goal posts.
Replies: 62
Views: 4520

Re: How do you stop moving the goal posts.

Keep setting goal posts. However, the new goal posts may be more about personal growth, family and friends and experience etc rather than work and accumulating money. You will also need to continue managing your resources so redefine those goals as appropriate for you. I already do goal setting in ...
by HomerJ
Tue May 22, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Difficulty with Parents-In-Law
Replies: 25
Views: 1341

Re: Difficulty with Parents-In-Law

3. The Whole Life Insurance became my wife's at 21. So while yes, my MIL pays the premiums, it's my wife's. I see that as under our financial house. I'd even take over the payment if necessary...only to terminate it in a few months after the smoke had cleared. That wasn't an option though. So no, i...
by HomerJ
Tue May 22, 2018 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Difficulty with Parents-In-Law
Replies: 25
Views: 1341

Re: Difficulty with Parents-In-Law

You're a punk 20-something sticking your nose where it doesn't belong, as far as they are concerned. Maybe AFTER you get that MBA, and AFTER you get your CFP, and AFTER you've been married to their daughter for 10-20 years, maybe just maybe they'll seek your advice. But probably not. Your in-laws fi...
by HomerJ
Fri May 18, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you send your children to private school in my situation?
Replies: 93
Views: 5970

Re: Would you send your children to private school in my situation?

But, what better thing would you spend that million on, if not education? Except his kids can already get education at the public schools. Seriously, what are the odds that the private school education is ONE MILLION DOLLARS better? (Impossible to quantify, of course, which makes spending that kind...
by HomerJ
Fri May 18, 2018 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%
Replies: 81
Views: 7334

Re: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%

When the Fed promises...promises...to raise interest rates multiple times this year, you can be fairly certain rates are going to go up. When those rates go up, you know the price of the bond fund is going to go down , and very likely the total return. You don't know that. It's a decent assumption,...
by HomerJ
Thu May 17, 2018 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 427
Views: 21101

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

To many Americans with less savings for retirement, their projected retirement tax bracket will be lower. To a lot of BH, due to their sizable savings, their future tax bracket could be higher with addition SS income and less deduction (dependent, mortgage interest. ect). Maybe when RMDs start at 7...
by HomerJ
Thu May 17, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Friend says "Stock market will crash, invest in silver" - thoughts?
Replies: 127
Views: 7553

Re: Friend says "Stock market will crash, invest in silver" - thoughts?

One last thing. SmilerUK. Note that we are NOT saying there won't be a crash. There might be. Maybe even tomorrow. Maybe in October or March. We don't know. We're just saying he doesn't know either. You should always be ready for a crash tomorrow that takes a while to recover. Because it might happen.
by HomerJ
Thu May 17, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Friend says "Stock market will crash, invest in silver" - thoughts?
Replies: 127
Views: 7553

Re: Friend says "Stock market will crash, invest in silver" - thoughts?

One of the most amazing things I have noticed, is that DW and I are better off than most of the other people in our little rural community. Maybe this is because many years ago we adopted a "get rich slowly" plan. No one ever asks us for financial advice, but every time a "get rich quick" scheme co...
by HomerJ
Thu May 17, 2018 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Friend says "Stock market will crash, invest in silver" - thoughts?
Replies: 127
Views: 7553

Re: Friend says "Stock market will crash, invest in silver" - thoughts?

Obviously nobody knows what's happening next This is true. Even if your friend is an "expert in macroeconomics", you should stop listening to him whenever he opens his mouth about investing. Very weird that he was so specific about October OR March (but nothing in-between?). A prediction that speci...
by HomerJ
Thu May 17, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 427
Views: 21101

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

I'm just trying to open up the conversation with scenarios. Personally I will have 15-20 years to convert our 401ks so I think we might come out ahead, but it will be pretty tight. CnC, can you please clarify what you mean by the above? Why are you converting your 401ks? how? to what end? and why w...
by HomerJ
Thu May 17, 2018 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%
Replies: 81
Views: 7334

Re: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%

The philosophies advocated here are not about reaping the greatest reward. They are about maximizing your chances of success, thereby minimizing your chances of losing everything and working decades longer than necessary or even dying with nothing. This is what makes the Bogleheads board special. M...
by HomerJ
Thu May 17, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%
Replies: 81
Views: 7334

Re: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%

1. Everyone is quick to point out that yield is increasing. But THE DROP IN NAV IS MUCH MORE THAN THE INCREASE IN YIELD. You start with $100. You lose $20 but gain $10. That's NOT good. And then you gain another $10 next year, and another $10 the year after. This is how bond funds work. They are se...
by HomerJ
Wed May 16, 2018 4:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you send your children to private school in my situation?
Replies: 93
Views: 5970

Re: Would you send your children to private school in my situation?

I'm not sure why many people on this thread throw out the money factor in this debate. With two children, each costing 20k per year, that's 40k per year for private school. Right now we're saving about 400-500k per year. Although we can spend 40K on private school, it would still eat into 10% of ou...
by HomerJ
Wed May 16, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you send your children to private school in my situation?
Replies: 93
Views: 5970

Re: Would you send your children to private school in my situation?

masonstone,

Where did you and your spouse go to elementary school, high school, and college?
by HomerJ
Wed May 16, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you send your children to private school in my situation?
Replies: 93
Views: 5970

Re: Would you send your children to private school in my situation?

The public elementary school in my community is very good. However there is also a very good private school in my community as well. Based on your very limited description, the schools are identical ("very good") except that one is public and one is private. So without additional information, it is...
by HomerJ
Wed May 16, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%
Replies: 81
Views: 7334

Re: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%

I'm sorry, it still does not make sense. I am perfectly fine with stocks dropping 30% because they have the potential to rise 30% the other way. Bonds will never have that potential, which is why I agree with some other posters that a penalty free CD may be a better option. I don't know what the pu...
by HomerJ
Wed May 16, 2018 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Golden Handcuffs
Replies: 53
Views: 8430

Re: Golden Handcuffs

Did you unlock the handcuffs and go search for a rewarding careeer? Or did you tighten those suckers and just go with the flow? I can tell you to the day (and almost minute) I decided how to handle this. I was driving home the week before Christmas on Friday afternoon in 2011 from my well paid big ...
by HomerJ
Wed May 16, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Golden Handcuffs
Replies: 53
Views: 8430

Re: Golden Handcuffs

In your situation, I would remain in the safe job until my spouse started working again and the kids were a few years older. Then I would reconsider making a move. If the new job doesn't work out, leaving that job and re-entering the job market wouldn't be so painful with your wife working and prov...
by HomerJ
Wed May 16, 2018 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%
Replies: 81
Views: 7334

Re: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%

If your investment horizon is over ten years, there is absolutely no reason to own bond funds right now. VBTLX has a 2.64% dividend yield, while VBILX has 2.76%. VTSAX has 1.74%. Why chase the less than 1% difference in yield, when bond funds have fallen so much harder than VTSAX? If you have an in...
by HomerJ
Tue May 15, 2018 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to think about schools/homes (Greatschools/Niche)
Replies: 70
Views: 4476

Re: How to think about schools/homes (Greatschools/Niche)

Is the idea of private school at all being considered? Because if so, the more expensive house is definitely cheaper than private school. Yes, it's almost always better to pay more for a home in a better school district instead of paying for private school. (1) You get to live in a nicer home for 1...
by HomerJ
Tue May 15, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%
Replies: 81
Views: 7334

Re: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%

but I don't believe VTSAX has undergone any 10 year segments where the price went down Oh, are you saying it's impossible then? Because it hasn't happened yet? And what if you need the money before 10 years? Are you saying it's impossible to lose one's job as well? I mean, if that is your entire ar...
by HomerJ
Tue May 15, 2018 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How can I clear $40-60,000/yr with $1,000,000 cash... Low Risk?
Replies: 71
Views: 10417

Re: How can I clear $40-60,000/yr with $1,000,000 cash... Low Risk?

advice on how to generate $40-60K from $1,000,000 50-50 equities-bonds, withdraw 4%. So years more than $40k, some years maybe less, but long term data suggests this can be done. But there’s downside risk. You’ll have to take some risk to get those returns. This. $1 million can easily generate $40,...
by HomerJ
Tue May 15, 2018 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?
Replies: 27
Views: 1484

Re: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?

I will give a different opinion: Most market corrections are of the "ordinary" kind, just due to economic cycles and lower expected earnings for most companies. However, 2008 was very different, IMO. Our economic system was coming apart at the seems with major companies going bankrupt. Lehman Broth...
by HomerJ
Tue May 15, 2018 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?
Replies: 27
Views: 1484

Re: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?

What if turns out to NOT be "another 2008 type correction"? What if you go 100% stocks at 50% down, and the market continues to crash, and it's a Great Depression II, and you lose your job, and it takes 10 years before the market recovers? If there's a Great Depression II, our retirement is probabl...
by HomerJ
Tue May 15, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can a <median household save 1 year of expenses every year?
Replies: 158
Views: 7490

Re: Can a <median household save 1 year of expenses every year?

Without childcare, tuition and associated costs, and possibly refinancing to a 30yr mortgage we could easily get household expenses <$25k/yr. I'm a guy who has stated before that it's not that hard to retire well with low expenses. But I assume a LCOL area, a paid-off house, and no kids. I mean, fo...
by HomerJ
Tue May 15, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%
Replies: 81
Views: 7334

Re: YTD: VBTLX down 2.28%; VBILX down 2.99%; VTSAX down 0.23%

fantasytensai wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 11:59 am
but I don't believe VTSAX has undergone any 10 year segments where the price went down
Oh, are you saying it's impossible then?

And what if you need the money before 10 years? Are you saying it's impossible to lose one's job as well?
by HomerJ
Tue May 15, 2018 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?
Replies: 27
Views: 1484

Re: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?

If we had another 2008 type correction, with blood in the streets, stock prices down -50%, would you be willing to sell some, or all of your bond position and just load up on equities? Obviously, this question is based on someone like me with a long 22-year time horizon before retirement. So you'd ...
by HomerJ
Tue May 15, 2018 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can a <median household save 1 year of expenses every year?
Replies: 158
Views: 7490

Re: Can a <median household save 1 year of expenses every year?

Is there anyone here, in this forum, that lives in a household making less than $59,000 gross income per year that saves as much money as they spend, every year? It's certainly possible, but not really necessary. Work on getting the house paid off over 30 years, and SS alone would cover a large per...
by HomerJ
Mon May 14, 2018 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Sports Betting Opportunities
Replies: 25
Views: 1996

Re: Investing in Sports Betting Opportunities

DanMahowny wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 6:27 pm
Strider wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 4:48 pm
OP here. To date, most of the current volume of sports betting has been underground. Going forward such betting will be channeled through legal entities.
My illegal bookie thinks legal sports betting will drive even more business his way. I think he's right.
Why?
by HomerJ
Mon May 14, 2018 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Whole Life Insurance Worth It?
Replies: 54
Views: 3878

Re: Is Whole Life Insurance Worth It?

You are mixing investment types, HomerJ, Total Stock Market Index fund is not a bond fund and it carries with it a TON of risk compared to one. Of course it is more tax friendly because it is a STOCK fund. I am talking about the "safe" part of my portfolio, not the risky part. I think you would agr...
by HomerJ
Mon May 14, 2018 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doubling Your Money
Replies: 32
Views: 6660

Re: Doubling Your Money

The problem with $120K is that it is quite a bit less than we make now. Our share of the apartment building should provide an additional $75-100K most years once the mortgage is paid off. It doesn't matter what you make now. What matters is what you'll spend in retirement. With the mortgage paid of...
by HomerJ
Mon May 14, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to think about schools/homes (Greatschools/Niche)
Replies: 70
Views: 4476

Re: How to think about schools/homes (Greatschools/Niche)

However at an above averge school there are usually enough honors and AP classes that a good student will get a good education. This. A good school can be just as good for a bright student as an elite school (This holds for high school AND college). Because you don't need 90% of the students to be ...
by HomerJ
Mon May 14, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Whole Life Insurance Worth It?
Replies: 54
Views: 3878

Re: Is Whole Life Insurance Worth It?

IMHO, once you are out of tax-advantaged options whole life CAN absolutely make sense as a part of your portfolio (the "safe" part, similar to how people use bonds but without any of the risk). No it doesn't make sense at all. There are a ton of tax-efficient choices out there that are far superior...
by HomerJ
Mon May 14, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Whole Life Insurance Worth It?
Replies: 54
Views: 3878

Re: Is Whole Life Insurance Worth It?

JoeChick10 wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 3:15 pm
I have a good friend in the insurance industry who has recommended looking into a whole life policy.
I have a good friend who is a barber who has recommended I get a haircut every week instead of once a month. :)
by HomerJ
Sun May 13, 2018 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Calculating 25X Expenses
Replies: 19
Views: 2787

Re: Calculating 25X Expenses

Is there a right or best way to calculate a 25X expenses number? As an example, assume Boglehead Joe wishes to retire at age 55. His anticipated expenses are $100K per year before health care. From ages 55 to 65 he wants to allow for an additional $20K per year for health care costs. At age 70 Bogl...
by HomerJ
Fri May 11, 2018 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: <Future> Marketable Skills
Replies: 17
Views: 1369

Re: <Future> Marketable Skills

livesoft wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 4:10 pm
Managing other people will never go out of style.
And you don't need any actual skills, either! Win-win! :D
by HomerJ
Wed May 09, 2018 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Living off Dividends of Vanguard Total Stock
Replies: 49
Views: 6480

Re: Living off Dividends of Vanguard Total Stock

What does everyone think of retiring when you can live off of the Dividends of the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index, and having 100% in stocks? This is two different questions. The answers are not necessarily related to each other. If you can live off the dividends of a total stock index, you have...
by HomerJ
Wed May 09, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Living off Dividends of Vanguard Total Stock
Replies: 49
Views: 6480

Re: Living off Dividends of Vanguard Total Stock

I don't think it's a bad idea under certain circumstances. A lot business owners have 100% of their net worth in their business which generates income to live on. That income can fluctuate with the economy. Not a whole lot of difference IMO...if you have the temperament to weather the market's ups ...
by HomerJ
Tue May 08, 2018 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Living off Dividends of Vanguard Total Stock
Replies: 49
Views: 6480

Re: Living off Dividends of Vanguard Total Stock

If you don't mind working an extra 5-10 years to get to 50x expenses instead of 25x expenses, then it's all good. Some people hit 25x expenses at 45, and the extra years are no big sacrifice. If you hit 25x expenses at 55-60, working another 5-10 years is actually cutting into a significant part of ...
by HomerJ
Tue May 08, 2018 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it time for me to change jobs or should I stay put?
Replies: 69
Views: 6027

Re: Is it time for me to change jobs or should I stay put?

Or maybe you will decide that you enjoy being in the hole. Your particular hole does have some real advantages. The problem is that the hole might not last until the OP is ready to retire since he or she is only 39. Yeah, that's a pretty dangerous hole to be in. I don't believe age-ism is as bad as...
by HomerJ
Tue May 08, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Living off Dividends of Vanguard Total Stock
Replies: 49
Views: 6480

Re: Living off Dividends of Vanguard Total Stock

That seems to me to be unnecessarily aggressive on the allocation side, since you would be in 100% stocks, but unnecessarily conservative on the withdrawal rate side, since you can expect capital gains, and historically you can safely withdraw 4% of a total portfolio of diversified stocks and bonds...
by HomerJ
Tue May 08, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it time for me to change jobs or should I stay put?
Replies: 69
Views: 6027

Re: Is it time for me to change jobs or should I stay put?

I have worked at the same job for the last 10 years and have been in the IT field for almost 20 years. How close are you to retirement? In IT, I feel like you should change jobs every so often to experience new infrastructure/problems/cultures/designs. If there's a high rate of change in your curre...