Search found 14280 matches

by HomerJ
Tue May 26, 2020 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18802
Views: 2628427

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

We never hear from those people again. Ever... Personally, I think it might just be the same three people who come back every year with different usernames. Sooner or later, they will predict correctly, and then they can stick with those usernames going forward, with a nice shiny guru reputation.
by HomerJ
Tue May 26, 2020 2:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 335
Views: 23127

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

I would bet that if there was true hyperinflation in the US (and not just using inflation in as hyperbole), nobody here is going to have a portfolio that will withstand that. squirm, Some people with a significant position in Gold/Silver will do very well. You will lose your bet. KlangFool Huh? The...
by HomerJ
Tue May 26, 2020 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Avoiding keeping-up-with-the-joneses w.r.t. private schools
Replies: 70
Views: 3153

Re: Avoiding keeping-up-with-the-joneses w.r.t. private schools

OP: If your child is bright And inquisitive , you might consIder surrounding him with others with the same qualities. In a public school, you are at risk of regression toward the mean, and that mean may be well below your child’s abilities. This really is not a question of keeping up the the Jonese...
by HomerJ
Tue May 26, 2020 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Avoiding keeping-up-with-the-joneses w.r.t. private schools
Replies: 70
Views: 3153

Re: Avoiding keeping-up-with-the-joneses w.r.t. private schools

I was a public school kid in a very very very humble system. I’m pretty sure less than 25% of my high school went on to higher education. And what's funny is that you are now widely successful in the top 1% of earners in the U.S. So did a humble public school system really hold you back? Seems like...
by HomerJ
Tue May 26, 2020 1:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Avoiding keeping-up-with-the-joneses w.r.t. private schools
Replies: 70
Views: 3153

Re: Avoiding keeping-up-with-the-joneses w.r.t. private schools

Spend the extra money to buy a house in a good public school district. This is almost always the correct choice in most of the country. Because when you go to sell the house after your kids are grown, you get the money back. Money spent on private school tuition is just gone. Now, education is local...
by HomerJ
Tue May 26, 2020 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 335
Views: 23127

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

Sorry to hear about your layoff. I know through your posts you've been planning for it for a while and it sounds like you are well prepared. I don't have much other advice other than I've worked as a contractor for the bulk of the last 25 years in IT and can say part-time work is hard to come by. I...
by HomerJ
Tue May 26, 2020 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Making the most of the Shiller-CAPE ratio?
Replies: 13
Views: 565

Re: Making the most of the Shiller-CAPE ratio?

According to a Vanguard research paper, CAPE (and p/e) have done better than other valuation metrics. However, they don't do a very good job. Great point. You'll see a lot of CAPE proponents state that CAPE is the "best" tool we have... But don't let the word "best" fool you. It's still a pretty po...
by HomerJ
Tue May 26, 2020 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Making the most of the Shiller-CAPE ratio?
Replies: 13
Views: 565

Re: Making the most of the Shiller-CAPE ratio?

Another good article on CAPE (written in 2013) http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/shiller/ For most of history, the Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted Price-Earnings ratio (CAPE) oscillated in a pseudo sine wave around a long-term (130 year) average of 15.30. It spent 55% percent of the time abo...
by HomerJ
Tue May 26, 2020 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Making the most of the Shiller-CAPE ratio?
Replies: 13
Views: 565

Re: Making the most of the Shiller-CAPE ratio?

CAPE is not actionable. Shiller himself wrote this at the end of a 1996 paper (where he predicted 0% real return for the next 10 years - we actually got 9% nominal (or around 6%-7% real)) http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/peratio.html The conclusion of this paper that the stock market is expect...
by HomerJ
Mon May 25, 2020 9:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 335
Views: 23127

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

KlangFool wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 9:22 pm
I have 100+K of CASH and 400K to 500K of stock index funds in my taxable account. I can tax manage my income to whatever number I choose.
Excellent. At least that's one less thing to worry about.
by HomerJ
Mon May 25, 2020 9:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 335
Views: 23127

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

As long as inflation is much greater than 3.49% per year, I win by keeping the 300K mortgage. I suggest a plan where you win regardless if inflation is much greater than 3.49% per year or not. Good luck to you. You're probably fine either way. But it scares me that you are making bets on predicting...
by HomerJ
Mon May 25, 2020 8:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 335
Views: 23127

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

What you believe is not a guarantee. You know better than that. HomerJ, Correct. This 300K mortgage is my inflation and hyperinflation hedge. It is part of my diversification strategy. KlangFool That's a better answer... But how does that work if you aren't making a salary any more? All your money ...
by HomerJ
Mon May 25, 2020 8:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 335
Views: 23127

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

In summary, you do not believe a 60/40 portfolio can return more than 5% per year. But, since you brought it up, I do not believe that a 60/40 is guaranteed to return more than 5% a year over the next 10 years. Do you believe there is a guarantee that it will? Paying off your mortgage is a guarante...
by HomerJ
Mon May 25, 2020 8:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 335
Views: 23127

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

In summary, you do not believe a 60/40 portfolio can return more than 5% per year. But, since you brought it up, I do not believe that a 60/40 is guaranteed to return more than 5% a year over the next 10 years. Do you believe there is a guarantee that it will? Paying off your mortgage is a guarante...
by HomerJ
Mon May 25, 2020 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 335
Views: 23127

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

Klang, you are doing this wrong. You need $45k a year, after the $15k your wife brings in. $1.3 million... $45k is 3.46% withdrawal. Pay off the mortgage, and you need $30k a year... with $1 million still in investments, that's a 3% withdrawal rate. And taxes will be lower. And easier to qualify fo...
by HomerJ
Mon May 25, 2020 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 335
Views: 23127

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

Ignore the stocks and just compare bonds to the mortgage - are you getting 3.5% return on the bond portion right now? qwertyjazz, Why should I? There is nothing there that makes your POV more valid than mine. I know that I am borrowing at 3.5% to invest in my 60/40 portfolio. I took a calculated ri...
by HomerJ
Sun May 24, 2020 7:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Approaching 40, worried about financial future
Replies: 109
Views: 10415

Re: Approaching 40, worried about financial future

willthrill81 wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 5:46 pm
A big point in your analysis is the mortgage being gone in retirement.
This is true. Getting to retirement with zero mortgage payments is HUGE.
by HomerJ
Sun May 24, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Approaching 40, worried about financial future
Replies: 109
Views: 10415

Re: Approaching 40, worried about financial future

I am about to turn 40 in a year or so. Recently I have become ever more worried about my/our future. I earn about $83,000. My retirement accounts are about $111,000. I am for 67/33 stock and bond approach. We are a family of 5 (3 kids). My partner does not work. I currently save about 8.7% of gross...
by HomerJ
Sun May 24, 2020 12:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 985
Views: 102348

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

I vet my tenants well and never had any problems with it. How does one "vet" their tenants for a possible Great Depression? Someone can have a great credit score, good work history, and still lose a decent-paying job if their employer goes bankrupt. Did you screen all your tenants ahead of time to ...
by HomerJ
Sun May 24, 2020 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian comments on the crisis
Replies: 60
Views: 5876

Re: El-Erian comments on the crisis

Interesting interview and comments from someone who has IMO a good understanding of markets and the economy. Like Zell, he doesn't think a V shaped recovery is a sure thing. Lots of risk still out there and our options to deal with it are robust but less than perfect. Sobering assessment. https://w...
by HomerJ
Sun May 24, 2020 12:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tips to stick to a weight loss diet?
Replies: 86
Views: 4023

Re: Tips to stick to a weight loss diet?

My suggestion is to turn eating from something pleasurable into something that you simply need to do every day to live. Find pleasure in another outlet. Wow. Just wow. I think this is the key. Thank you. It probably works (if one can do it), but seems so sad. Eating is pleasurable. Again, try eatin...
by HomerJ
Sat May 23, 2020 11:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 335
Views: 23127

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

I think you are hurting yourself with these self-defeating thoughts that you can only do high-level architect work. Or maybe that's true, and you've been out of the trenches too long, and can no longer do actual day-to-day work. In the Washington D.C. area, there should be plenty of high-paying norm...
by HomerJ
Sat May 23, 2020 11:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recommend a China-focused, risk-seeking fund
Replies: 18
Views: 920

Re: Recommend a China-focused, risk-seeking fund

I'd like to flush my money down the toilet... Which brand of toilet should I use? Please don't respond if you think that's a bad idea... k.. thx :D (Sorry OP, couldn't help it). Why don't you want to discuss the merits of your idea? Is it not strong enough to stand up to scrutiny? How much of your p...
by HomerJ
Fri May 22, 2020 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Stocks Funds too exposed to China
Replies: 27
Views: 2188

Re: Emerging Market Stocks Funds too exposed to China

China's GDP has tripled over the last decade, but FXI (China Large Cap ETF) is actually down in that time period (as is VWO). It doesn't seem like there is much correlation between Chinese GDP growth and any returns I might get from owning their stocks. This. China seems to be a scam. I own Vanguar...
by HomerJ
Fri May 22, 2020 11:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 335
Views: 23127

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

If you have the skills you think you have, you can find a $60k job easy. In your neck of the woods, $100k jobs should be easy. Your attitude of "I only want to work on billion dollar systems" is silly. You're not that special. Million dollar systems take hard work and can present interesting challe...
by HomerJ
Fri May 22, 2020 11:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 335
Views: 23127

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

Watty wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 10:56 pm
Not having a mortgage allows us to have lower taxable income
This is the best reason to not have a mortgage..

Much easier to qualify for ACA subsidies, or do ROTH conversions.
by HomerJ
Fri May 22, 2020 11:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 335
Views: 23127

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

Your attitude is terrible. My condolences on the job loss. You are well situated to handle it financially. There's nothing wrong with working an easier job to make some cash. Many jobs in IT have challenges, and hurdles, and accomplishments. You could still contribute. But if you're not willing to ...
by HomerJ
Fri May 22, 2020 10:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tips to stick to a weight loss diet?
Replies: 86
Views: 4023

Re: Tips to stick to a weight loss diet?

I lost a bunch of weight eating slowly... That's it. That was the key. Instead of two hamburgers when I grilled out or two sandwiches for lunch, I'd have one. Other times I tried to cut back to one sandwich or one burger or one pork chop, it was painful. Because I'd eat at my normal speed, then try ...
by HomerJ
Fri May 22, 2020 10:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 335
Views: 23127

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

F) Late 50+ years old. My question is 1) Is it really worthwhile for me to continue working? I worked in the IT area. If I want to stay in this area, I have to study 10 to 20 hours per week just to keep up with the latest technology. 2) If I do contract work, how much should I get paid before it is...
by HomerJ
Thu May 21, 2020 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call
Replies: 95
Views: 11367

Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Tepper is the new owner of our Carolina Panthers. Supposedly a very successful hedge fund manager worth around $10B I think. A successful hedge fund manager = a successful salesman. They make their money from the fees, not from their investing prowess. The guys who are REALLY good at investing don'...
by HomerJ
Thu May 21, 2020 1:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: "Vintage year" effect of graduating into a recession
Replies: 20
Views: 1965

Re: NYT: "Vintage year" effect of graduating into a recession

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/19/business/economy/coronavirus-young-old.html Young adults, especially those without a college degree, are particularly vulnerable in recessions. They are new to the job market — with scant on-the-job experience and little or no seniority to protect them from layoff...
by HomerJ
Thu May 21, 2020 1:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: "Vintage year" effect of graduating into a recession
Replies: 20
Views: 1965

Re: NYT: "Vintage year" effect of graduating into a recession

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 10:37 pm
Uh huh. Just like HomerJ's picture is of himself. :wink:
LOL... I'm looking more and more like that every day...

Too much beer in quarantine land.
by HomerJ
Tue May 19, 2020 5:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thinking of buying a boat during pandemic – am I CRAZY?
Replies: 80
Views: 5327

Re: Thinking of buying a boat during pandemic – am I CRAZY?

I'm not a boat person, so some of these questions may be unimportant but is this a boat you would store somewhere else or you would keep on the lake at your place? Or keep on dry land at your place? If you would be responsible for transporting it to the boat jetty, do you have a vehicle capable of ...
by HomerJ
Tue May 19, 2020 5:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College in fall
Replies: 280
Views: 28074

Re: College in fall

The August 10-Thanksgiving schedule with no fall break seems to be trending right now. I hope it is successful as I live in one of the college towns. It is my understanding that some of University scientists here are working on developing a system of testing returning students. At this point, I bel...
by HomerJ
Tue May 19, 2020 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?
Replies: 213
Views: 10039

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

am wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 5:35 pm
Instead I am getting rich slowly with a boring 3 funder. Are we sure this is the right way? :D
"After years of disappointment with get rich quick schemes, I know I'm gonna get rich with this scheme. And quick."
-Homer Simpson
by HomerJ
Tue May 19, 2020 1:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will the 4% Rule hold true in the future?
Replies: 18
Views: 2128

Re: Will the 4% Rule hold true in the future?

Check out early retirement now SWR series. Long story short, he agrees that a 3.5% WR is perpetual with 60% equities or greater in the portfolio. https://i0.wp.com/earlyretirementnow.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/swr-part1-table1.png?resize=764%2C500&ssl=1 That graphic doesn't seem to show that 3....
by HomerJ
Tue May 19, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will the 4% Rule hold true in the future?
Replies: 18
Views: 2128

Re: Will the 4% Rule hold true in the future?

Hello bogleheads, I have a few questions about the 4% Rule and would appreciate your insights: 1. If history is not indicative of future results, how can we use the 4% Rule (which was a study of past performances) to dictate our future plan? 2. The trinity study was based on US market. How would in...
by HomerJ
Tue May 19, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 8768

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

With respect to Dr. Malkiel, his recommendations and advice appear to have changed and evolved over the years. In your current or former profession, do you not change beliefs or best practices based on new information, research, or career experience? In his case, however, it sure looks like he's ch...
by HomerJ
Tue May 19, 2020 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"
Replies: 153
Views: 15225

Re: What does Market know, that we did not know?

OP, you are asking the wrong question, and at the wrong time. In early March, what did the market know that we did not? The answer was absolutely nothing. People were guessing, and they guessed wrong... big time . Mr. Market now has actual data about earnings, infection rates, vaccine development, ...
by HomerJ
Tue May 19, 2020 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15418

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

So 810 years (27 periods) sounds about right. We aren't going to get that data in time to make a decision Then we already have the data we need. 27 periods. 1950-2020 is 70 years; call that 2 periods (1950-1979 and 1980-2009). We only need data from 14 countries and as we all know, the world is big...
by HomerJ
Mon May 18, 2020 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15418

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

(a) Same period, other countries aren’t independent, and (b) What I remember reading (but haven’t checked myself) is that the 4% rule failed when extended to other countries. Have you checked those? Or picked carefully :-) Of course other countries are independent; that's why they have wildly diffe...
by HomerJ
Mon May 18, 2020 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thinking of buying a boat during pandemic – am I CRAZY?
Replies: 80
Views: 5327

Re: Thinking of buying a boat during pandemic – am I CRAZY?

If you can't figure out the answer to this question on your own, your mega-tech company should fire you for being incompetent.

Get two jetskis too.
by HomerJ
Mon May 18, 2020 3:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College in fall
Replies: 280
Views: 28074

Re: College in fall

This was the same with both of my kids meals plans, and I think they are designed this was on purpose. Neither kid used their mail plan to the fullest as they quickly became bored with the meal choices. However it was still nice to know they had a meal available if nothing else. Some things to thin...
by HomerJ
Mon May 18, 2020 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement
Replies: 115
Views: 5838

Re: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement

I suppose my main point was to say that "right now" is always the worst time to have a market dip - regardless of how long you've been retired. You'd always prefer to have it, say, 5 years later. That's true whether the preceding years were good or bad. Again, this isn't true. If the preceding year...
by HomerJ
Mon May 18, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement
Replies: 115
Views: 5838

Re: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement

Actually yes, a run of early negative returns does imply the future is more likely to be positive because of the drift. Under an independent random walk, this is just not true. Okay, show me a random walk data set with the upwards drift of the US stock market where 30 years of negative returns aren...
by HomerJ
Mon May 18, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15418

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

There are so many numerous ways to make the 4% rule work most all of the time but its also important to note that you do need to utilize one or more of those methods to make it work all of the time. "Retiring at 30 at 4% is risky, but if markets crumble in the first 5 years adding a few years of wo...
by HomerJ
Mon May 18, 2020 12:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement
Replies: 115
Views: 5838

Re: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement

Yes, the market can go down after your early retirment years have passed, but it won't be an SORR problem anymore. Insofar as SORR is a real problem, it persists as long as you are in the withdrawal phase. In other words, there is nothing about the conclusions of permuting sequences that assumes yo...
by HomerJ
Sun May 17, 2020 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement
Replies: 115
Views: 5838

Re: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement

YRT70 wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 9:00 pm
rbaldini wrote:
Sun May 17, 2020 3:55 pm
Bad years early in retirement don't mean good years later, any more than a run of heads from flipping a coin now implies a run of tails later.
Are you sure that's accurate?
That is definitely not accurate.

Annual stock returns are not fully independent events like a coin flip.
by HomerJ
Sun May 17, 2020 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement
Replies: 115
Views: 5838

Re: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement

I've recently come to think that all of the talk around Sequence of Returns is really unnecessary. The whole premise is rather contrived: Given a particular set of returns , the sequence in which they occur can affect your final wealth (assuming some non-proportional withdrawals and additions, else...
by HomerJ
Sun May 17, 2020 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement
Replies: 115
Views: 5838

Re: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement

Put another way: one implication of all the SOR stuff is that "in the withdrawal period, if you could choose to have bad years early instead of later, you'd choose later". Okay, but that's not a choice you ever get to make. Bad years early in retirement don't mean good years later, any more than a ...