Search found 12393 matches

by HomerJ
Wed Apr 10, 2019 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 105
Views: 7978

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

There have been pretty good signs of blockchain / cryptocurrency adoption for the past few months which made me pull the trigger. 1) Facebook and JP Morgan want to create their own coins. How is Facebook and JP Morgan creating their own coin going to make you money invested in some other coin? That...
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns
Replies: 77
Views: 5719

Re: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns

BJJ_GUY wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 10:58 pm
So two different arguments: What can we do with information vs is the information invalid entirely.
That's an interesting point.
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 09, 2019 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns
Replies: 77
Views: 5719

Re: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns

Of course if I were 10 years out with low valuations and values returned to the mean over the next 5-7 years I’d (hopefully) cash out and be happy. Yes so would everyone else, but that has nothing to do with the valuation prediction 5-7 years previous but the fact the ACTUAL returns were excellent ...
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 09, 2019 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns
Replies: 77
Views: 5719

Re: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns

I am incredibly surprised how many posts support the idea that estimating future returns based on price and value is of no value. Without an idea of how to forecast relatively long returns based on current valuation, I have zero idea how everyone is putting a portfolio together based on any sort of...
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 09, 2019 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 64197

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

@HomerJ, there's nothing wrong with your plan or your logic. I'm sure you'll reach your goals. I think there are rare times when there is a better way, and you think that I'm wrong. No sweat. We'll see how it goes. Just FYI, since this is an important distinction... It's not saying that I'm sure yo...
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 09, 2019 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 64197

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

See, my position is that valuations do not matter BECAUSE I do not believe the risk is ever zero. My position is that texting while driving does not matter BECAUSE I do not believe the risk of collision is ever zero. You'll have to explain that. I am saying the opposite. I'm saying don't ever text ...
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 09, 2019 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are life insurance basically scams?
Replies: 43
Views: 1836

Re: Are life insurance basically scams?

Good day, I'm 22 years old, single, and no dependents. Should I avoid life insurance premiums like plagues? Are life insurances borderline scams? You should absolutely avoid any life insurance pitch that says life insurance is an investment. Term-life insurance is the only good kind. It's like othe...
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 09, 2019 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 64197

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I don't understand why you find Hussman's thoughts valuable. For me, one valuable element of this discussion is that it reminds me WHY it's important for my risk tolerance to be fully reflected in my asset allocation. Let's say for a second that Hussman is right. Could my financial plan tolerate a ...
by HomerJ
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 64197

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

The model was DERIVED in 1988 from the data from those previous years. You really must understand this. While I am sure you are familiar with the term "fooled by randomness," you seem not to accept or undestand how it might apply to CAPE10. Let's say the data establish that a coin is fair after aft...
by HomerJ
Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 64197

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

A CAPE of 25 was extreme. And yet it was a great time to buy. How can CAPE proponents wrap their head around this, and continue to proclaim that CAPE is a good prediction tool? Because it is based on over 100 years of data. And because unlike you, they do not consider crashes in 2001 and 2007 to be...
by HomerJ
Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 64197

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

In 1996, the S&P500 closed for the year at 740.74. In 2009, the S&P500 reached a low of 676.53 on March 9th. And 1996 opened at 614... Was there one day or one week in the 23 years since 1996 where stocks were cheaper?? Yeah, maybe, depending on which day we're talking about in 1996. 1996 was still...
by HomerJ
Mon Apr 08, 2019 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 64197

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

(1) There are very few people who would have stayed out of the market for 13 straight years based on valuations. (2) Of those few people, there are ZERO who would have gotten back in at the bottom of 2009. If one is fanatical and dedicated enough about valuations to sit out that long while his or h...
by HomerJ
Mon Apr 08, 2019 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 64197

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

There has literally never been a better time to buy the S&P500 after his declaration in 1996, not sure what in that was an opinion; it’s fact. The crash didn’t generate a better buying opportunity. Depends on the assumptions you make. If you held cash under a mattress from 1996 onward, then sure. I...
by HomerJ
Mon Apr 08, 2019 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 64197

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

There has literally never been a better time to buy the S&P500 after his declaration in 1996, not sure what in that was an opinion; it’s fact. The crash didn’t generate a better buying opportunity. Sure it did, and those who saw it coming and got out at the peak made a bundle, and made another bund...
by HomerJ
Mon Apr 08, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns
Replies: 77
Views: 5719

Re: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns

In other words, imagine someone is trying to make a decision on the margin: investing an additional $10,000 in their retirement fund or taking a family with young children to Europe for three weeks this summer. This decision can NOT be made rationally without some expectation about future returns o...
by HomerJ
Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is back-testing exactly...
Replies: 11
Views: 682

Re: What is back-testing exactly...

Backtesting is good at weeding out BAD strategies. If you have a strategy and it failed in the past, then you know it could fail going forward too. Backtesting is NOT as good at validating GOOD strategies. Just because a strategy didn't fail in the past, that doesn't guarantee it won't fail going fo...
by HomerJ
Mon Apr 08, 2019 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns
Replies: 77
Views: 5719

Re: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns

How is that useful for the long term investor? So, if he is correct then returns will be down in the future and the valuations will be less so then at that time the future returns are going to be higher. And so the cycle begins. So, for that to be useful you need an exact date or number to be in or...
by HomerJ
Mon Apr 08, 2019 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns
Replies: 77
Views: 5719

Re: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns

And by the way, since Nov 1, 2012, when Asness posted that article telling us that: Based on the past, the 2012 level of Shiller P/E — the ratio of stock prices to an inflation-adjusted 10-year rolling average of corporate earnings — suggested that the average annual real stock market return over th...
by HomerJ
Mon Apr 08, 2019 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns
Replies: 77
Views: 5719

Re: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns

How is that useful for the long term investor? So, if he is correct then returns will be down in the future and the valuations will be less so then at that time the future returns are going to be higher. And so the cycle begins. So, for that to be useful you need an exact date or number to be in or...
by HomerJ
Sun Apr 07, 2019 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 64197

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

So basically you are predicting a mix of the G and F funds, Total Bond fund and Money market fund will fair better than equities between mid 2018 and until the buffet indicator <=120% & the Schiller P/E <=25? You now have your sell and rebuy position. Only time will tell if your predictions are acc...
by HomerJ
Sun Apr 07, 2019 8:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Losing a job in your 50's...
Replies: 375
Views: 41027

Re: Losing a job in your 50's...

How many of the BH on this thread have direct reports and had to let people go? I ran a division in a megacorp with 168 direct reports. It used to be 221. We were not profitable. We got things fixed up and we are now more productive with 168 than we were with 221. Never once did age factor into the...
by HomerJ
Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 64197

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

When someone says to me that no valuation in the market would change his mind about having money invested, am I being the closed-minded one, or is he? Let me just say this isn't the first time I've seen this argument. Do you really think you're bringing up something new, and I'm just close-minded a...
by HomerJ
Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 64197

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I realize, more importantly, that I will meet my 2026 investment goal without any returns, just by continuing to save. Thus, it hardly seems a good idea to press when indicators are so high. Since you are no longer a "long-term" investor, I definitely agree with you that it's a good idea to take mo...
by HomerJ
Sun Apr 07, 2019 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 64197

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I think it's reasonable to expect higher volatility and lower returns at high long-term valuation measures. Yeah, you'd think so. It sure seems reasonable. In fact, the data supports that conclusively. No, it absolutely does not. It's amazing to me that people STILL say this after 20+ years where v...
by HomerJ
Sun Apr 07, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Hit your number, retire and boom a correction?
Replies: 67
Views: 7893

Re: Hit your number, retire and boom a correction?

I take a conservative "age in bonds" approach. If you retire at age 65, this means that you are 35% stocks. If the market should drop 50%, then your portfolio will be down only about 18%. This seems to be a risk that one could live with and not lose any sleep. IMO, during retirement, capital preser...
by HomerJ
Sun Apr 07, 2019 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Hit your number, retire and boom a correction?
Replies: 67
Views: 7893

Re: Hit your number, retire and boom a correction?

There are no very good answers to this. The bedrock reality is that the stock market is risky. You either take the risk, or you don't. What people tend to do is flail around looking for a way that they can get the return of the stock market without really taking the risk. There are innumerable ways...
by HomerJ
Sun Apr 07, 2019 12:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 64197

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Damned if I do, damned if I don't. I'm in the accumulation phase at 60/40 right now, and as the market goes up, I'll DCA out down to 0/100, if valuations go that far (not much farther). I can't sleep while aggressively invested with the Buffett indicator and CAPE at extremes. Maybe this will comfor...
by HomerJ
Sat Apr 06, 2019 10:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Hit your number, retire and boom a correction?
Replies: 67
Views: 7893

Re: Hit your number, retire and boom a correction?

If you've been reading here, you should know that most of us recommend a much more conservative asset allocation as you approach retirement for the EXACT reason you're worried about. If you're 50/50 stocks/bonds, a big correction won't affect you nearly as much. Now to mitigate that I have about 3 y...
by HomerJ
Sat Apr 06, 2019 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 737
Views: 64197

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

If you are conservative and nervous that’s fine. Set your AA to 25/75 and find better things to do with your time. Adjusting AA is what I'm doing now, but it's still market timing. If you adjust your AA because you're close to your goal and you don't want to risk as much, that's fine... If you plan...
by HomerJ
Sat Apr 06, 2019 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why have Stoneridge Reinsurance failed to have "equity like returns"?
Replies: 37
Views: 2624

Re: Why have Stoneridge Reinsurance failed to have "equity like returns"?

I find it interesting to see how much modern portfolio theory has convinced many people to search for fabled 'uncorrelated, high return' asset classes. They don't have to be "high return" just "positive real return". Doesn't seem like that much of a stretch to me. As the OP noted, many want "equity...
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 05, 2019 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 657
Views: 74805

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

robertmcd wrote:
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:39 am
Sorry I was talking about reinvestment risk.
How is reinvestment risk a thing to worry about, but interest rate risk not a thing to worry about?

They are two sides of the same coin.
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: allocation change with "winning the game"
Replies: 39
Views: 3587

Re: allocation change with "winning the game"

There's no such thing as a 0% chance of failure. My personal belief is that if you believe you've "won the game," then treat a significant portion of your portfolio very conservatively and almost separately. This amount should be enough that if everything else went wrong, you wouldn't regret the am...
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 657
Views: 74805

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I will continue to load up on US stock and long term treasury bonds. People in short term treasuries are exposed to substantial interest rate risk in my opinion. It's the exact opposite. Long-term bond funds have substantial interest rate risk. Unless you're talking about individual treasury bonds ...
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are annuities the best way to fund one's retirement?
Replies: 190
Views: 10148

Re: Are annuities the best way to fund one's retirement?

The main point of the original linked article (which is not unique to this author) is simply that with an annuity the typical person will get to enjoy a larger income over their lifespan than with an investment portfolio from which you will have to "cap" your withdrawals because of the perpetual ri...
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is our household budget crazy?
Replies: 141
Views: 11615

Re: Is our household budget crazy?

Oh wow. Normal local sf bay area grocery store prices (safeway, whole foods, nob hill): blueberries 4.99, avocado 2.49 each, bell pepper 2.49 each, chicken breast a bit under $10. Wish we had Aldi here. Our store has blueberries for $4.99 a pint sometimes, too. We don't buy them because they have f...
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is our household budget crazy?
Replies: 141
Views: 11615

Re: Is our household budget crazy?

livesoft wrote:
Fri Mar 29, 2019 10:09 am
For lunch today I am having a small portion of salmon broiled in a spicy sweet sauce over a little rice cooked in some coconut milk, a few florets of broccoli along with a small salad of fresh spinach, tomatoes, carrots, blueberries.
I'm having Peanut Butter and Jelly. :)

The classics never die.
by HomerJ
Fri Apr 05, 2019 8:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is 30x expenses for financial independence an after-tax or pre-tax number?
Replies: 22
Views: 2861

Re: Is 30x expenses for financial independence an after-tax or pre-tax number?

Anyone who has $3 million in retirement assets is very likely going to have a couple hundred thousand in taxable accounts. It's pretty easy to keep your taxes low if you spend some money from your taxable accounts each year. Money you pull from the bank isn't considered "income". I think it's strang...
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 04, 2019 9:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3
Replies: 286
Views: 18351

Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

I've had my Model 3 for 2 weeks now. I've driven 460 miles and spent $3.62 on "fuel," thanks to free charging at work. That would have been $90 worth of expensive California gas in my old car. :D Does your work provide free gasoline for employees too? I've always wondered how long the "free chargin...
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 04, 2019 9:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3
Replies: 286
Views: 18351

Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

It's more than I wanted to spend but it's been life changing for me and I don't say that lightly. How has it changed your life? You're still driving from A to B, right? Surely you're trolling. Do you apply this guideline to everything in life? He's the one that said it was "life-changing", which I ...
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 04, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3
Replies: 286
Views: 18351

Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

It's more than I wanted to spend but it's been life changing for me and I don't say that lightly. How has it changed your life? You're still driving from A to B, right? Surely you're trolling. Do you apply this guideline to everything in life? He's the one that said it was "life-changing", which I ...
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 04, 2019 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is 30x expenses for financial independence an after-tax or pre-tax number?
Replies: 22
Views: 2861

Re: Is 30x expenses for financial independence an after-tax or pre-tax number?

Lets’s say my projected annual expenses are $100k and I need 30x expenses for financial independence. So I’d need $3m for FI. Is the $3m number a after-tax or pre-tax number? Question: To be financially independent with 30x expenses, would I need: 1) A portfolio balance of $3m OR 2) A portfolio bal...
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 04, 2019 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are annuities the best way to fund one's retirement?
Replies: 190
Views: 10148

Re: Are annuities the best way to fund one's retirement?

As to the objection that withdrawals from an investment product portfolio are preferable to a fixed annuity perhaps due to inflation eroding the real value of annuity payments, I thought the author of the study provided an answer to that question with his results: The question is, what safe withdra...
by HomerJ
Thu Apr 04, 2019 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are annuities the best way to fund one's retirement?
Replies: 190
Views: 10148

Re: Are annuities the best way to fund one's retirement?

So, what about a variable annuity instead? You can select your investments and receive payments that reflect the performance of the underlying investments. If you're concerned about the effects of inflation on the purchasing power of a fixed annuity, and believe you're better off taking withdrawals...
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 03, 2019 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I caught the falling knife
Replies: 60
Views: 14653

Re: Re:

RatherBeSailing wrote:
Wed Apr 03, 2019 10:16 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Thu Mar 17, 2011 4:30 pm
30 years from now, when the DOW is at 85,000, you won't care so much that you bought some shares at 11,900 instead of 11,700.
Message from the future, looks pretty good from 8 years out from 2011 as well
Nice!

Need less than 6% a year nominal for the next 22 years to hit 85,000
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 03, 2019 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are annuities the best way to fund one's retirement?
Replies: 190
Views: 10148

Re: Are annuities the best way to fund one's retirement?

So, what about a variable annuity instead? You can select your investments and receive payments that reflect the performance of the underlying investments. If you're concerned about the effects of inflation on the purchasing power of a fixed annuity, and believe you're better off taking withdrawals...
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 03, 2019 8:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "The best and worst U.S. states for retirement"
Replies: 259
Views: 21549

Re: "The best and worst U.S. states for retirement"

Another option is to just have one home, but rent 3-4 months out of the year someplace warmer or cooler. Yes. Brilliant. It absolutely is cheaper than living in Southern CA. I will be the first to admit that Southern CA (on the coast) is pretty close to heaven on earth, weather wise, but it costs F...
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 03, 2019 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are annuities the best way to fund one's retirement?
Replies: 190
Views: 10148

Re: Are annuities the best way to fund one's retirement?

FeeMonster81 wrote:
Wed Apr 03, 2019 7:17 pm
probably someone like larry swedroe or wade phau could answer but can you buy simple longevity insurance and then invest the rest of your money the way that you want.
Put some of your money in SPIA and invest the rest of your money the way you want.

Don't need larry or wade to answer that.
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 03, 2019 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are annuities the best way to fund one's retirement?
Replies: 190
Views: 10148

Re: Are annuities the best way to fund one's retirement?

Math seems pretty easy to me. If I hit 75, and my portfolio has dropped 50%, I start seriously thinking about buying a 8%-10% SPIA with most of the money I have left. 50% of my money in a 8% SPIA gets me same income I was getting when pulling 4% from 100% of my portfolio. (of course that ignores in...
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 03, 2019 8:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Losing a job in your 50's...
Replies: 375
Views: 41027

Re: Losing a job in your 50's...

A lot of the workforce chooses to live far away from their workplace, for a variety of reasons (around here, it is usually to get more house for the money). I think it's far more likely that people don't choose houses based on their workplaces, nor move every time they change jobs. We bought a hous...
by HomerJ
Wed Apr 03, 2019 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3
Replies: 286
Views: 18351

Re: Talk me in/out of $35k Tesla Model 3

clutchied wrote:
Wed Apr 03, 2019 12:34 pm
It's more than I wanted to spend but it's been life changing for me and I don't say that lightly.
How has it changed your life? You're still driving from A to B, right?