Search found 13104 matches

by HomerJ
Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I Travel ot Ecuador?
Replies: 49
Views: 3445

Re: Should I Travel ot Ecuador?

I was pick-pocketed in Quito on my first day of a 6 month trip through South America in 2007 and it was the best thing that could've happened to me as it made me more cautious and consequently I learned of all the scams, made good choices and carried on having a wonderful trip. Petty theft is very ...
by HomerJ
Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 50/50 to 45/55
Replies: 38
Views: 3010

Re: 50/50 to 45/55

Heck, I might INCREASE my stock allocation once we're both getting Social Security, but that's about 14-15 years from now. I agree with all of you that it's a very small change, no real difference. We're just going through a lot of changes this year, with my wife retiring, kid entering college next ...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 50/50 to 45/55
Replies: 38
Views: 3010

Re: 50/50 to 45/55

RickBoglehead wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 8:43 pm
All sounds good, but moving 5 points isn't a big change.
Absolutely correct, but it was equal to 4 years of college tuition (my youngest is a senior in high school), so it wasn't nothing... :)
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 50/50 to 45/55
Replies: 38
Views: 3010

Re: 50/50 to 45/55

Homer, you might consider going to 40/60 now and holding that AA from now on. Paul I thought about it as a smart move to lock in a lot of gains, and also thought about sticking with 50/50 in case the market kept going up, but went with 45/55 as a compromise since I couldn't decide :) I've never rig...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 15, 2019 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 50/50 to 45/55
Replies: 38
Views: 3010

50/50 to 45/55

4 years from retirement (maybe 3... technically I could maybe retire today, but last kid is going to college next year... should probably cash flow that) Wife is retiring in January... Decided it's a good time to switch from 50/50 to 45/55 We're selling two houses over the next year, moving to new l...
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 15, 2019 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1962
Views: 204581

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

DOW up 222.93 points, new record close. Portfolios all time highs, even with all our home projects we have done this year. Yeehaw! Smoking a stogie outside in cooler weather of 64 degrees F. Opening frosty adult beverage. Life is good, really, really good! Makes me want to tell DW to go spend some ...
by HomerJ
Thu Nov 14, 2019 6:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 290
Views: 19336

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

Real bond yields now are significantly lower than historical realized real bond returns, which if you look back at my posts I believe I stated every single time. Citation please. I believe what you said is incorrect, even though you've stated it every single time. Real bond yields were very low in ...
by HomerJ
Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
Replies: 43
Views: 5282

Re: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk

The only characterization I object mildly to, in your post, is that the bonds are “safe assets”. If interest rates rise by a quarter point in the future, those bond assets are expected to drop by approximately 10%. It does not even need to be an actual event, the mere “expectation” of a rise in int...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 13, 2019 11:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk
Replies: 43
Views: 5282

Re: Winning the Game - Reducing Risk

The only characterization I object mildly to, in your post, is that the bonds are “safe assets”. If interest rates rise by a quarter point in the future, those bond assets are expected to drop by approximately 10%. It does not even need to be an actual event, the mere “expectation” of a rise in int...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 13, 2019 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1962
Views: 204581

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Two years in the market is just noise. Let's hope so... I know Small can underperform Large for years at a time but the asset class returning almost zero in a 2 year period while Large is breaking records is a tough pill to swallow, oh well, stay the course and see what happens I guess. This patter...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 13, 2019 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 290
Views: 19336

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

That tool allows you to shift the mean of the distribution, effectively, by putting in an artificially high investment expense number. If I run the tool for 4% SWR, retire at 62, I get 100% success rate at age 86, 93% at age 95 for 0.2% investment expenses on 60/40 stock/bond, pretty much the strai...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...
Replies: 101
Views: 6099

Re: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...

Most people are treating your question as a joke, but I think it deserves a serious answer. Stocks and bonds is great but I think it’s prudent, if for nothing but your ability to sleep at night, to invest at least 20% of your assets in alternative assets. You want assets that most importantly won’t...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 12, 2019 2:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 290
Views: 19336

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

While I take your statements as your genuine beliefs, my first reaction was that you were trolling. I accept that it's just that our views on this are very, very different. I have lived in an area of notable natural beauty for almost a decade, and still don't tire of it. Almost daily I am tickled b...
by HomerJ
Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I think my friend is already financially independent (through a fantastic bitcoin investment), can you confirm?
Replies: 49
Views: 6975

Re: I think my friend is already financially independent (through a fantastic bitcoin investment), can you confirm?

What are the specifics behind $5K health care annually? My FIRE timing could be accelerated if this were the guaranteed max exposure of this expense. Made up number IMO. Anyone going on the AHA site can see that you're not going to get health insurance for $5,000 a year. And, whatever you find it f...
by HomerJ
Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Saving seats on Southwest
Replies: 210
Views: 11177

Re: Saving seats on Southwest

It may not be a huge deal, but if I paid $20 for early seat selection, and you are trying to block me from benefitting from that purchase so that someone who could have paid extra but chose not to can have that benefit, that is plainly rude. Not the biggest event in anyone's week, but I would not h...
by HomerJ
Mon Nov 11, 2019 5:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 290
Views: 19336

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

However, one comment I would make is that you do run out of places to go. The number of places worth traveling to isn't small, but it isn't huge either. For example, I could cover the ones on my list in less than a year of full-time travel. Depends on how you travel... I spent a week in Italy once,...
by HomerJ
Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 290
Views: 19336

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

There’s a thing going on here that someone touched upon, that I think for a large number of Bogleheads is the case: many of us don’t like the idea of a long grind down in nest egg value. The hypothesis is that 4% will SURVIVE a 30 year retirement. But the concern is to not merely survive. Lower wit...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 10, 2019 11:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 290
Views: 19336

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

This is one of those questions where you really need to see the OPs portfolio and expenses before a detailed response for s/he can be given. Cash flow, health, expenses, desire for leaving a legacy and charitable giving all play a large role in ones response. Is this a bad deal for the retiree taki...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 10, 2019 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...
Replies: 101
Views: 6099

Re: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...

Well, Mahomes is healthy again, so the Kansas City Chiefs are a lock. There you go, the hardest part is done for you. Now you just need to scoop up all the tickets. Mahomes is healthy. But I hope you haven't already purchased a bunch of tickets. Exciting game! Heh, I came back to this thread expect...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 10, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Saving seats on Southwest
Replies: 210
Views: 11177

Re: Saving seats on Southwest

If you're earlybird, how are there not any empty rows? Why would you want to sit in a row with someone already there, instead of one of the empty rows? My wife and I don't use earlybird, but whoever gets on the plane first always saves a seat for the other (or the entire row if our kid is with us)....
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 10, 2019 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Saving seats on Southwest
Replies: 210
Views: 11177

Re: Saving seats on Southwest

If you're earlybird, how are there not any empty rows? Why would you want to sit in a row with someone already there, instead of one of the empty rows? My wife and I don't use earlybird, but whoever gets on the plane first always saves a seat for the other (or the entire row if our kid is with us). ...
by HomerJ
Sun Nov 10, 2019 12:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retire or work again?
Replies: 23
Views: 2843

Re: Retire or work again?

Will running another dental practice give you more joy than anything else in the world?

Because if there's anything that would give you more joy... I suggest you do that.
by HomerJ
Sat Nov 09, 2019 11:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Have You Planned for Sequence of Return Risk (SOR)?
Replies: 178
Views: 11763

Re: How Have You Planned for Sequence of Return Risk (SOR)?

Here's how I plan to do it... 5 year CD ladder. Rest in 50/50 stocks/bonds. (at 25x expenses, this would be equal to 40/60 stocks/bonds). Each year, cash out the CD that is expiring, and buy a new 5-year CD using dividends and money from whichever side is higher. If stocks are up, sell stocks. If s...
by HomerJ
Sat Nov 09, 2019 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...
Replies: 101
Views: 6099

Re: If you were forced to pick an alternative asset...

This is soooooo..... easy. Figure out which professional xxxxball team is going to go to the championship. Buy number of tickets for that team's seasons tickets. Sell all the playoff tickets and championship tickets to rabid fans. You're welcome. Well, Mahomes is healthy again, so the Kansas City C...
by HomerJ
Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global PE10 and PS summary: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital
Replies: 73
Views: 9635

Re: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital

What % of equities do you have allocated to Int? 72% of my equity is non-US. I can be aggressive in changing my asset allocation with valuations. A younger version of me would probably have a year's expenses in I bonds and all the rest in EM value. Total Stock Market Index is up 29% since this post...
by HomerJ
Sat Nov 09, 2019 1:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I Travel ot Ecuador?
Replies: 49
Views: 3445

Re: Should I Travel ot Ecuador?

DW and I are scheduled to fly to Ecuador in mid February for a trip to the Galapagos. Apparently there has been some issues there and currently there is a travel advisory due to "civil unrest". I have only sent a small deposit at this point but the full payment is due within three weeks, we do plan...
by HomerJ
Sat Nov 09, 2019 1:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 290
Views: 19336

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

EddyB wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:12 pm
I commend your patience.
I'm done.
by HomerJ
Fri Nov 08, 2019 6:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 290
Views: 19336

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

my objection is that past history average stock returns has been 10% and bond return has been 7%. This is obviously true for the 90 years of recorded history, for 40-year long periods, and for most 30-year long ones , which are relevant for retirement planning purposes. Yes, for most 30-year period...
by HomerJ
Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 290
Views: 19336

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

" If history is any guide for the future , then withdrawal rates of 3% and 4% are extremely unlikely to exhaust any portfolio of stocks and bonds during any of the payout periods shown in Table 1. In those cases, portfolio success seems close to being assured." Throughout the period used for backte...
by HomerJ
Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement
Replies: 21
Views: 2713

Re: Retirement

I’m pretty sure I will be caught up in the “forever home “ mentality. I’ve tried to talk my wife out of it. Live in the “forever home” and pay a mortgage for about 20 years or so. Basically until the kids are off to college. Then we have to down size to a new “forever home” with another 30 year mor...
by HomerJ
Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When to get in.
Replies: 21
Views: 2667

Re: When to get in.

So you don't think the s&p 500 is going to 300? It might go to 300. Will it stay at 300 or will it go back up after the next "big drop"? If it goes to 300 you would need a 900% gain just to get your money back. How many years would it take to make it back? At least a hundred. 1982-1999 was a 1000% ...
by HomerJ
Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1962
Views: 204581

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Bogleism works on the upcycle of a massive credit expansion. It'll be a disaster on the downside. Bogle, Buffet, and other Boglehead heroes rode the upside of a secular multi-decade credit wave. Very easy to look smart during such financial asset inflation. Now the downside as the wave crests. Mayb...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Only buying global stocks at all-time highs beats buy-and-hold
Replies: 11
Views: 1824

Re: Only buying global stocks at all-time highs beats buy-and-hold

Pure data mining. Will it hold up and be predictive going forward? Real answer is not knowable. My guess is no. Garland Whizzer It will hold up because most people don't have a plan in 2008. They'll either sell too late or diligently stand on the deck of the Titanic as it slides into the sea. But t...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 290
Views: 19336

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

The historical average returns, on which past SWR determinations are based, are 10% for stocks and 7% for bonds. Good luck trying to get anything close to that now. Perhaps at least some of your concern about low WR stems from this fundamental miss-understanding of SWR studies. They are NOT based o...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 290
Views: 19336

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

Really? Even 3% is debatable now? What's next, 2.5% is too aggressive? I agree with this. If 3% isn't safe enough, then most people can really forget about retirement planning. I mean, how many people can and will save 33x what they spend, let alone even more (for a <3% SWR)? The whole idea about u...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 06, 2019 8:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 290
Views: 19336

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

Really? Even 3% is debatable now? What's next, 2.5% is too aggressive? The historical average returns, on which past SWR determinations are based, are 10% for stocks and 7% for bonds. Good luck trying to get anything close to that now. This is incorrect, and indicates you don't understand the subje...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why shouldn't I buy a Dow Jones index fund instead of TSM or the S&P?
Replies: 20
Views: 1291

Re: Why shouldn't I buy a Dow Jones index fund instead of TSM or the S&P?

Looking at the DIA ETF (Dow Jones Index), I find that since 1999 it has returned 1% more per year than VTSMX (total market) and 1.5% more than SPY (S&P 500) and the SD is lower. It has a Sharpe of 0.47 compared to 0.40 and 0.38 respectively. The maximum drawdown was 47% compared to 51% for the othe...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Only buying global stocks at all-time highs beats buy-and-hold
Replies: 11
Views: 1824

Re: Only buying global stocks at all-time highs beats buy-and-hold

Pure data mining. Will it hold up and be predictive going forward? Real answer is not knowable. My guess is no. Garland Whizzer It will hold up because most people don't have a plan in 2008. They'll either sell too late or diligently stand on the deck of the Titanic as it slides into the sea. But t...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 290
Views: 19336

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

So one should prepare for a 60-year retirement in your 50s, and make sure one can survive 35 years of low stock and low bond returns, followed by TWO 50% crashes two years in a row, and then another 25 years of retirement? No, the first 35 years are at the new normal, which will persist until money...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 290
Views: 19336

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

World wars don't explain the last 50 years, for example. I would be concerned about potential future policy changes in the US that would make stock market performance more similar to what we've seen elsewhere. Not saying it's a high probability necessarily, but definitely not something that can be ...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 290
Views: 19336

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

If you aren’t okay looking at a constantly declining balance, a % WR of any rate will not be a good thing for you. I know it wouldn’t be for me or most rational beings. You should also look at passive income sources to add to your portfolio as well so as not to be hammered by the draw down. -TheDDC...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 290
Views: 19336

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

An SPIA is always an option. Seriously, when you are mentally in the 2%-3% range, one really should look at giving up part of one's portfolio to get a guaranteed check each month. Half your money in a 5% SPIA gets you the 2.5% return, and you can spend the dividends (2%) from the remaining half, giv...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 290
Views: 19336

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

Let’s assume your allocation is 50/50 stocks/bonds, for simplicity. Bonds these days return on average around the inflation rate. +1% over inflation is probably an overestimate. That means half of your portfolio returns zero inflation-adjusted. That also means the other half of your portfolio has t...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 06, 2019 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 290
Views: 19336

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

Early retirees (and frankly all retirees) hope that they have decades of life left. Yes, even at my age 75. A fortune teller told me that I'll live to 95 when I was 18! So I looked carefully at what percentage withdrawal rate will keep my portfolio intact in REAL terms FOREVER. You will be pleased ...
by HomerJ
Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 290
Views: 19336

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

I would spend 3% and not think twice about it with an inflation adjustment. Those saying 2.2% are too conservative IMHO. This. Yes, the next 30-40 years might be even worse than the years in the Trinity Study. It's possible... The worst times in U.S. history may be around the corner. But if 4% work...
by HomerJ
Tue Nov 05, 2019 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement
Replies: 21
Views: 2713

Re: Retirement

I also still have student loans to pay off as well as a big mortgage and car loan. Meaning I will not be able to save 20% of my income until I’m 45 years old. By then I’ll be finished paying off my 250K of student loan debt. I’m currently saving 10% of my income. Am I screwed? Once the student loan...
by HomerJ
Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 1962
Views: 204581

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I'm again making too much money; that makes me nervous. :shock: Has the exuberance become irrational? I haven't been paying attention. Last time Greenspan said "irrational exuberance" didn't it take a couple of years to kill the goose that was laying golden eggs? Took more than 3 years. The quote w...
by HomerJ
Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much money is really needed in retirement?
Replies: 74
Views: 9172

Re: How much money is really needed in retirement?

Approx. 25x your annual spending is a rough estimate. Assuming a 3.5-4% draw down. ie. 50k/yr spending would require 1.25M savings. That seems reasonable but how does a paid-off house factor into that? 20% of our annual expenses are mortgage payments (P + I). If you are spending $50k a year, and $1...
by HomerJ
Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much money is really needed in retirement?
Replies: 74
Views: 9172

Re: How much money is really needed in retirement?

OP, you have it exactly right. Expenses are what matters, not income. Shoot for 25x expenses by 60 or so... Now, it's hard to tell exactly what your expenses will be 20-30 years from now, but one can make a good guess, and as you get closer and closer to retirement, your guesses will get better and ...