Search found 26520 matches

by dbr
Sun May 20, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain
Replies: 77
Views: 6583

Re: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain

Let's do this thought experiment: It is true that when you always use multiplication as an operator, an reduction of 10% is stronger than an increase of 10%. However, if you use division to model a loss then gains can be viewed in the same footing as loss. For example, I invest $100 in something, a...
by dbr
Sun May 20, 2018 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newly widowed, how do I invest 1.5 million life ins. proceeds
Replies: 25
Views: 1955

Re: Newly widowed, how do I invest 1.5 million life ins. proceeds

Wow, you all are so kind to take the time to help. Thank you! Regarding the $5/month I was hoping to withdraw, I could take out less. I could do 4k, possibly even 3K. I know I can trim expenses. I am preparing for the idea that I will sell the house. It is a money sucker, so big and old. Clearly yo...
by dbr
Sun May 20, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain
Replies: 77
Views: 6583

Re: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain

Bah, humbug. There is no such thing as volatility drag. It is just the use of mathematics to obfuscate what is going on. If there is a loss due to volatility, it is due to your investment plan. You are buying high and selling low. As for me, I prefer to get my free lunch at the diversification banq...
by dbr
Sun May 20, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment allocation
Replies: 13
Views: 475

Re: Investment allocation

The investment issue is to consider all your investments as one allocation. The tax issue is to distribute different parts of the investment to different types of accounts: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Tax-efficient_fund_placement These two topics can be listed in order of importance as asset all...
by dbr
Sun May 20, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newly widowed, how do I invest 1.5 million life ins. proceeds
Replies: 25
Views: 1955

Re: Newly widowed, how do I invest 1.5 million life ins. proceeds

An important consideration would be going to work when the children are no longer at home. This may be affected by the special needs case, but young adult and adults with special needs can often be served by programs that allow the parent to work. This has a huge effect on the issue of spending down...
by dbr
Sun May 20, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to and when not to “reinvest dividend and capital gains”
Replies: 12
Views: 607

Re: When to and when not to “reinvest dividend and capital gains”

I don't think distributing funds to a settlement account is supposed to mean the proceeds are not fairly directly invested into one or another of the assets in the portfolio. The question is usually whether or not to immediately invest each distribution back into the fund producing it or to manually...
by dbr
Sun May 20, 2018 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to and when not to “reinvest dividend and capital gains”
Replies: 12
Views: 607

Re: When to and when not to “reinvest dividend and capital gains”

I agree with the above. The issue is one of tactical management and not one of strategy. It can even just come down to personal preference. Most of the time too big a deal is made of it. That is true of many things where the existence of a choice seems to imply an issue where there is none.
by dbr
Sun May 20, 2018 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $1,700,000 from family trust...
Replies: 31
Views: 2424

Re: $1,700,000 from family trust...

For a person unfamiliar with investing I would go to "getting started" and learn more of the basics: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started There are good books to help including the Boglehead books and I like Larry Swedroe in particular, at least his basic investing books. I wouldn't get w...
by dbr
Sun May 20, 2018 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain
Replies: 77
Views: 6583

Re: Three-fund portfolio returns and variance drain

^ Good explanation. I noticed in reading the Wiki that there might already be an ambiguity in the first line where average return is mentioned without the qualifier that the term refers to the arithmetic average. The reason this is important is that the conventional data published for returns of inv...
by dbr
Sat May 19, 2018 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 60
Views: 6962

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

I invest 70% of my portfolio in bonds, not because of returns, but because of balance. Buffett doesn't have to worry about balancing his portfolio (are you kidding?!). He is in a different universe. And what he says is great for him, and he is correct for him. As a mere mortal and a nobody, I have ...
by dbr
Sat May 19, 2018 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Another road trip Denver to Cheyenne
Replies: 5
Views: 377

Re: Another road trip Denver to Cheyenne

I suggest reconsidering and at least drive Trail Ridge Road in Rocky Mountain National Park. If that doesn't work maybe you can check out Red Rocks, Lookout Mountain (Buffalo Bill Grave), Coors Brewery in Golden, Hwy 93 to Boulder, Eldorado Springs, Boulder, CSU campus in Fort Collins (Fort Collins?...
by dbr
Sat May 19, 2018 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 60
Views: 6962

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

I invest 70% of my portfolio in bonds, not because of returns, but because of balance. Buffett doesn't have to worry about balancing his portfolio (are you kidding?!). He is in a different universe. And what he says is great for him, and he is correct for him. As a mere mortal and a nobody, I have ...
by dbr
Sat May 19, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do I understand duration correctly?
Replies: 18
Views: 1135

Re: Do I understand duration correctly?

The maturity of the bond is decreasing over time. After 1 year, the maturity of a 5 year bond is 4 years. Duration is always less than maturity. As maturity shortens and a bigger proportion of the bonds total payout is the final repayment of principal, the duration comes closer to equaling maturity...
by dbr
Sat May 19, 2018 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pension and Sociai Security Impact on 4% Rule
Replies: 15
Views: 1279

Re: Pension and Sociai Security Impact on 4% Rule

the "RE" part of FIRE refers to "Retiring Early", often quite early. Not sure if that is what you are contemplating According to a previous thread , the OP is contemplating retiring at 57-58. Somewhat early, but not super early. Maybe use an average withdrawal rate of 3.5% instead of 4% for back-of...
by dbr
Sat May 19, 2018 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement and Bond Allocation
Replies: 2
Views: 361

Re: Retirement and Bond Allocation

The point of asset allocation is to pick the combination of risk and return that best suits your objectives. It is assumed that early on, in fact as long as one is growing saved wealth, that there is an incentive to invest for high expected return, aka stocks, so as to become wealthy faster. Along w...
by dbr
Sat May 19, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do I understand duration correctly?
Replies: 18
Views: 1135

Re: Do I understand duration correctly?

I know of three useful working definitions for duration: 1. Weighted average time for repayment of all coupons and principal at end 2. Time at which a bond holder is indifferent to a one time change in interest rates because of reinvestment of coupons at new interest rate 3. A measure of price sens...
by dbr
Sat May 19, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 60
Views: 6962

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

Bonds are a terrible investment compared to stocks is his point. It's an expected return argument and he's right about that. Many bogleheads own bonds but I don't see anyone arguing that bonds have higher expected returns than stocks right now. It comes down to a simple issue of recognizing that in...
by dbr
Sat May 19, 2018 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pension and Sociai Security Impact on 4% Rule
Replies: 15
Views: 1279

Re: Pension and Sociai Security Impact on 4% Rule

Tax costs and investment costs have to be accounted for in the calculation. They can be included in planned spending. Some models also model tax costs, such as i-ORP. You are not supposed to have significant investment costs, but one should look to make sure.
by dbr
Sat May 19, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do I understand duration correctly?
Replies: 18
Views: 1135

Re: Do I understand duration correctly?

It isn't that simple. As a general mathematical problem the convolution of interest rate increases, changes in NAV and accumulation of interest has to be worked out and the result is not what you quoted. I don't have at hand some of the examples that some posters have put up in the past, but hopeful...
by dbr
Sat May 19, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Want Vanguard funds. Need Vanguard account?
Replies: 9
Views: 746

Re: Want Vanguard funds. Need Vanguard account?

Opening an account at Vanguard is straightforward and logical. It doesn't make much sense to do otherwise if you are starting from scratch. If you do need financial advice you can get it from Vanguard Personal Advisory Service of 0.3% AUM. That would save you from a much more costly venture if you f...
by dbr
Sat May 19, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pension and Sociai Security Impact on 4% Rule
Replies: 15
Views: 1279

Re: Pension and Sociai Security Impact on 4% Rule

Sure. The question has been asked and answered before. Take the income you want or need, subtract the amount already supplied by pensions and Social Security and fund the remainder from savings. There are many models out there for calculating that problem that do it exactly that way. You could start...
by dbr
Sat May 19, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 60
Views: 6962

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

During this year's annual Berkshire Hathaway meeting, Buffett said: "Bonds are a terrible investment at anywhere near current yields.” He continued, “The only time bonds were interesting was in the early to mid-1980’s" So what should we invest in besides stocks? Nothing. Buffet's advice is to be 90...
by dbr
Fri May 18, 2018 7:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Registering complaint with American Airlines/American Eagle?
Replies: 25
Views: 1366

Re: Registering complaint with American Airlines/American Eagle?

How many other people, if any, missed the flight? I'm not sure what the issue is. There's a boarding time when all passengers are expected to be at the gate, even if you're zone seven on a basic economy fare and everyone knows you'll board last. Anytime I'm working in an airport lounge or not going...
by dbr
Fri May 18, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which AA do people draw from in retirement?
Replies: 17
Views: 1330

Re: Which AA do people draw from in retirement?

You should always be attending to your asset allocation. It can be helpful to raise cash for withdrawals from whatever asset is overweight. Tax issues are about what asset location to with draw from not about what asset allocation to withdraw from. As to cash, people here are all over the map about ...
by dbr
Fri May 18, 2018 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Me Help Parents
Replies: 12
Views: 1257

Re: Help Me Help Parents

If they do not have any savings the worst thing you could do is strip them of liquid resources they would need for any contingency. They absolutely need to have an emergency fund because SS and pension income cannot be advanced or increased to meet a pressing need for more money. Putting liquid asse...
by dbr
Fri May 18, 2018 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation to combine Dave Ramsey and Vanguard?
Replies: 79
Views: 6663

Re: Allocation to combine Dave Ramsey and Vanguard?

It is not really accurate to say that "it takes a LONG time for value to win". It would be more accurate to say that sometimes growth stocks outperform value stocks for a long time, and sometimes value stocks outperform growth stocks for a long time. You could say the same thing about small stocks ...
by dbr
Fri May 18, 2018 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation to combine Dave Ramsey and Vanguard?
Replies: 79
Views: 6663

Re: Allocation to combine Dave Ramsey and Vanguard?

If you want a real world suggestion regarding SCV you could look at the "Larry" portfolio mooted by Swedroe in which one combines 100% SCV in stock with whatever allocation to low risk bonds gives you the portfolio return and risk you need but also hopefully reduces left tail risk (an aspect of vol...
by dbr
Fri May 18, 2018 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation to combine Dave Ramsey and Vanguard?
Replies: 79
Views: 6663

Re: Allocation to combine Dave Ramsey and Vanguard?

Of the "usual" stock asset selections the highest expected return is for small cap value and emerging markets. If you simply mean to invest for the highest expected return you should be 100% in one, the other, or split between both of those. If you have a different definition of "best-possible" you...
by dbr
Fri May 18, 2018 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 251
Views: 45076

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

We are aiming for retirement assets to be about 70% of our NW at retirement. We won't get to 25x expenses in savings, but with SS, a small pension, and some other resources, we should be close in total. What does this mean? What it should mean is that net income needed after SS, pension, and other ...
by dbr
Fri May 18, 2018 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation to combine Dave Ramsey and Vanguard?
Replies: 79
Views: 6663

Re: Allocation to combine Dave Ramsey and Vanguard?

If I eliminated International I’d hold less SCV personally. I think you are performance chasing. Perhaps I am. If this is a long term plan, though, that shouldn't be viewed as a bad thing. It should be viewed as researching to find the best-possible return for my investment dollars. Of course, in h...
by dbr
Fri May 18, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How can I clear $40-60,000/yr with $1,000,000 cash... Low Risk?
Replies: 71
Views: 10320

Re: How can I clear $40-60,000/yr with $1,000,000 cash... Low Risk?

Excellent troll, OP. I don't think so. He seems earnest. There are lots of threads where people believe that they can achieve the unlikely or the impossible if only they find the right advisor or newsletter, or mutual fund, and that is on Bogleheads! You know, the ones who have a strategy: buy low,...
by dbr
Fri May 18, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cash instead of bonds for 3-fund
Replies: 22
Views: 1931

Re: Cash instead of bonds for 3-fund

In principle cash could be an asset in a portfolio rather than bonds, but the fact that your bond fund is down a little in the recent short run is absolutely not a reason to shift to cash. The question of what best represents a "risk-free" asset in a portfolio is complex and is discussed some here: ...
by dbr
Fri May 18, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Registering complaint with American Airlines/American Eagle?
Replies: 25
Views: 1366

Re: Registering complaint with American Airlines/American Eagle?

The blame falls on him for not paying attention to what was going on at the gate at boarding time. If I were AA I wouldn’t give him anything other than a seat on the next flight. Was he not waiting at the gate, or did he not wonder why people were lined up before departure at the boarding door? You...
by dbr
Fri May 18, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?
Replies: 35
Views: 2985

Re: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?

^well said, and exactly my point as well.
by dbr
Fri May 18, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How can I clear $40-60,000/yr with $1,000,000 cash... Low Risk?
Replies: 71
Views: 10320

Re: How can I clear $40-60,000/yr with $1,000,000 cash... Low Risk?

Excellent troll, OP. I don't think so. He seems earnest. There are lots of threads where people believe that they can achieve the unlikely or the impossible if only they find the right advisor or newsletter, or mutual fund, and that is on Bogleheads! You know, the ones who have a strategy: buy low,...
by dbr
Fri May 18, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Registering complaint with American Airlines/American Eagle?
Replies: 25
Views: 1366

Re: Registering complaint with American Airlines/American Eagle?

See here: http://forum.elliott.org/whats-new/ Specifically find the link on that site to corporate contacts at American Airlines. The recommended procedure is to go online and file a written complaint with AA customer service. If the response is not satisfactory, Elliot recommends drafting a polite ...
by dbr
Fri May 18, 2018 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?
Replies: 35
Views: 2985

Re: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?

The investigation is interesting but it is hard to know what significance to attach to data that essentially consists of the biggest interest rate spike in US history and the thirty year or more decline from that spike. How these results would add up starting today and extending for the next sixty y...
by dbr
Thu May 17, 2018 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 251
Views: 45076

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

Thank you. Helpful threads. From an accounting standpoint a pension is an asset. My take from the debates is that there's varying opinions on whether to consider pension as part of NW calculations. It isn't a debate about what you call things. That debate can be held elsewhere by anyone interested ...
by dbr
Thu May 17, 2018 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ally No Penalty CD @1.75% vs VMMXX @ 1.87%
Replies: 22
Views: 2265

Re: Ally No Penalty CD @1.75% vs VMMXX @ 1.87%

If I had 25K being held for no particular purpose at five years and beyond it would be part of my portfolio of stocks and bonds. For bonds I choose intermediate duration bond funds. Messing around with "cash" holdings and 0.13% differences for long term investing doesn't seem helpful.
by dbr
Thu May 17, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Percent Confidence in Planning Scenario
Replies: 27
Views: 980

Re: Percent Confidence in Planning Scenario

The simple answer is that a model is not a contract; it isn't even a promise. A model is an estimate and a theory that gives one some idea of what depends on what. This is useful for planning but does not make a model a plan. Probably the most useful thing to do with % success is to see at what valu...
by dbr
Thu May 17, 2018 8:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What would you do? takes 6 months to fix a Tesla Model S
Replies: 33
Views: 2498

Re: What would you do? takes 6 months to fix a Tesla Model S

Thanks all for the replies. The damage should be fixable and I’m not sure insurance would like to total it. I’ll probably rent on weekly basis and hope the best. I’ve been reading the forum but feel not too much to contribute because there are so many wise opinions out there. That’s why this is my ...
by dbr
Thu May 17, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Question
Replies: 6
Views: 567

Re: Asset Allocation Question

Hello, When I bought into the idea that I should have some international allocation in my portfolio, I decided to target my asset allocation at 60% Total US, 20% total international and 20% bonds. Therefore, using a $100,000 portfolio, mine was $60,000 total US, $20,000 total international, and $20...
by dbr
Thu May 17, 2018 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: any disadvantages to using Delta Skymiles for fare?
Replies: 18
Views: 1222

Re: any disadvantages to using Delta Skymiles for fare?

You should post in Flyertalk Delta Forum: https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/delta-air-lines-skymiles-665/ Those people are very expert in nuances of using miles for flight. One downside is that $0.010 per mile is not very cost effective compared to better opportunities one might find. However if the u...
by dbr
Thu May 17, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Junk Bond fund
Replies: 65
Views: 3565

Re: Vanguard Junk Bond fund

"What we are discussing is whether returns on this fund properly reward the risk. The fund did very poorly 2008-09." I didn't own this fund during 08-09, acquired it in 2010 after the correction. Just luck :) Considering the yield plus the price, I think it's done very well. thanks. Confusing outco...
by dbr
Thu May 17, 2018 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 3921

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

LT bonds might make sense as a component of a portfolio. If they do there is no point where one would exit from them. As a component of a portfolio holding the asset for twice the duration or any other rule is irrelevant. The only relevance of such things is holding such a fund to be liquidated at a...
by dbr
Thu May 17, 2018 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Junk Bond fund
Replies: 65
Views: 3565

Re: Vanguard Junk Bond fund

Looking at a chart of VWEAX since 2010 when I bought it, it appears the price has gone from 3.20 to 5.76. So, looks good to me. What am I missing? Thanks. Maybe that in 2007 the fund was over 6.00 and crashed to 3.9 in 2008. That is not very helpful behavior for a bond fund. Also, I don't see on a ...
by dbr
Thu May 17, 2018 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cash out Long term gains?
Replies: 9
Views: 694

Re: Cash out Long term gains?

It can make sense to "harvest" capital gains when one can do it without paying tax because you are staying in the 0% bracket. Maybe in certain situations it would make sense to pay a lower tax now if one knows the alternative is to pay a higher tax in the near future. Just cashing out and paying tax...
by dbr
Wed May 16, 2018 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Percent Confidence in Planning Scenario
Replies: 27
Views: 980

Re: Percent Confidence in Planning Scenario

OP here. Thank you all for the responses. I can't say that you did not confirm what I already know. Being the planners and savers that we are, it is not surprising that we all put a great deal of thought into how we plan for the future. There are no guarantees! Best we can do is choose the "appropr...
by dbr
Wed May 16, 2018 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to view AA buckets if you plan to retire early?
Replies: 4
Views: 410

Re: How to view AA buckets if you plan to retire early?

Like it or not and however you view it, you have one asset allocation and you might as well know what it is and decide what it should be. Naturally it can be that withdrawals should be preferred first from one plan and then another, but the overall asset allocation has to be attended to. Many bucket...
by dbr
Wed May 16, 2018 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to invest after maxing out retirement?
Replies: 21
Views: 1725

Re: Where to invest after maxing out retirement?

Im sorry but bonds do not make sense to me, you are not even keeping up with inflation. Is this what you intended to write? Even Vanguard's basic money market account has more or less kept up with inflation over its lifetime. Sorry I do not mean to come off like a know it all but from what I have r...