Search found 25339 matches

by dbr
Sat Feb 24, 2018 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett's Shareholder Letter [2017]
Replies: 43
Views: 2810

Re: Buffett - Stock to Bond ratio

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek] I know that this group is a big proponent of stock to bond ratio to control the risk. Here is what Buffett says in his annual news letter this year - "It is a terrible mistake for investors with long-term horizons – among them, pension funds, c...
by dbr
Sat Feb 24, 2018 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 183
Views: 13564

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

One thing I think we can all agree on is that living on the dividends and income of a typical 3 fund portfolio without selling stuff is only going to work if your portfolio is huge and/or your needs are small. Interesting. In context of your commentary what is huge and what is small? Some numbers m...
by dbr
Sat Feb 24, 2018 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA: am I being wise or missing something?
Replies: 19
Views: 792

Re: AA: am I being wise or missing something?

OP, How secure is your Municipal pension? As I understand it, many of these types of pensions are under funded and are not backed any any guarantees. Part of the risk calculus you need to consider. I believe it to be about 75% safe. It is conservatively invested and weathered 2008/09 well. Of even ...
by dbr
Sat Feb 24, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ethics of selling a used car
Replies: 43
Views: 2201

Re: Ethics of selling a used car

It does simplify life to not deal with buying and selling cars to/from individuals, though I have done it a number of times. One year about forty years ago we had a car for sale when the doorbell rang and there were these two scruffy guys outside. One of them pulled out a roll (I am sure the other w...
by dbr
Sat Feb 24, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on AA with Tech Tilt
Replies: 3
Views: 317

Re: Thoughts on AA with Tech Tilt

I think it is a bad habit to start messing around with your asset allocation like that. That said, as a practical matter that little bit extra is neither here nor there. If you really believe in what you are doing the tilt would be much larger or you would have some credible investing algorithm that...
by dbr
Sat Feb 24, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett's Shareholder Letter [2017]
Replies: 43
Views: 2810

Re: Buffett - Stock to Bond ratio

I don't know what Buffett has in mind when he says bonds are risky though the comment about inflation is certainly plausible and indeed real. This is a another one of those discussions where the question would answer itself once the meaning and intent of using the word risk is made explicit and spec...
by dbr
Sat Feb 24, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ethics of selling a used car
Replies: 43
Views: 2201

Re: Ethics of selling a used car

Am I ethically required to disclose all of the known issues to the potential buyer? I am not aware of any ethics regulations or any ethics police, but in my mind if you are aware of a specific hidden defect I would say it is unethical not to mention it to the buyer. The out is what other people hav...
by dbr
Sat Feb 24, 2018 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Move out of bond fund or not?
Replies: 14
Views: 1031

Re: Move out of bond fund or not?

What is VMMXX? You have two separate questions and a observation (question): 1. Should you tax loss harvest? I guess for that tax loss I might. With bonds I would probably just leave the money in the sweep account for thirty days and buy back. You can make up your own mind if you want to try to nigg...
by dbr
Sat Feb 24, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA: am I being wise or missing something?
Replies: 19
Views: 792

Re: AA: am I being wise or missing something?

In your situation your asset allocation does not matter very much. The main expected effect would be more stock means higher and higher expected wealth when you pass on. That may or may not be of interest to you. It is hard to fault a 40/60 to 60/40 choice for someone in retirement with a conservati...
by dbr
Sat Feb 24, 2018 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX vs VFIAX [Vanguard Total Stock Mkt vs. 500 Index]
Replies: 5
Views: 612

Re: VTSAX vs VFIAX

I recently moved a large chunk of my portfolio to VTSAX and the plan is to move most of the remainder of it soon. My question is probably painfully obvious to most but obviously not to me. What is the biggest difference between VTSAX and VFIAX? I know VTSAX is basically the total stock market, so w...
by dbr
Sat Feb 24, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Do People Without Computer Access Prepare and File Their Taxes?
Replies: 53
Views: 2685

Re: How Do People Without Computer Access Prepare and File Their Taxes?

I help certain family members prepare taxes on my computer using Turbotax. Being able to do multiple preparations is an advantage of downloaded versions of the software. The people in question would not be able to figure out how to file a tax form if they did have a computer and would not be able to...
by dbr
Sat Feb 24, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Received stock options at VC-backed startup. What questions should I be asking?
Replies: 6
Views: 321

Re: Received stock options at VC-backed startup. What questions should I be asking?

It is not only not rude but would be downright irresponsible on your part not to fully inform yourself of the details of the stock issues of your company. They are inviting you to take an ownership position in the company and you should be as informed as possible about what you have. As to risk, pri...
by dbr
Sat Feb 24, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Knob and Tube rewire cost
Replies: 18
Views: 1287

Re: Knob and Tube rewire cost

At least 3 quotes from licensed, insured, reputable electrical contractors, all bidding on the same work (apples for apples). You may be having trouble getting quotes because a "Knob and Tube" rewire is labor intensive and/or work in your area is very busy and fruitful right now and contractors do ...
by dbr
Sat Feb 24, 2018 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rick Ferri Fixed Income Portfolio Funds
Replies: 21
Views: 2541

Re: Rick Ferri Fixed Income Portfolio Funds

Was doing some exploration of Portfolio Visualizer yesterday. What an outstanding tool. Learning all it can do will be a great education in and of itself. I did some brief portfolio backtesting yesterday of a comparison betweeen my current 3 fund portfolio, which is 60% VFIAX / 30% VGTSX / 10% VBTL...
by dbr
Sat Feb 24, 2018 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 183
Views: 13564

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

My main point here is that when you refer to “living off of dividends”, it implies to me a 100% stock portfolio. Because I’m more used to hearing “interest and dividends” when referring to a stock AND bond portfolio. I would agree that is the historical context, "widows and orphans stocks" and so o...
by dbr
Sat Feb 24, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Knob and Tube rewire cost
Replies: 18
Views: 1287

Re: Knob and Tube rewire cost

The rule is always to get multiple quotes, at least three. I am not sure why you are having trouble getting more responses.

I would not think that quote for what you describe is crazy. I don't understand K&T being in a 1954 construction. It wasn't used anymore then.
by dbr
Sat Feb 24, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 183
Views: 13564

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

Is it still true that it costs more in taxes to get a dividend than to sell shares? I believe that hasn’t been the case since the early 2000s. It is still true if you are comparing long term capital gains from stocks to dividends from bonds. But if you are thinking of stock qualified dividends vs s...
by dbr
Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Pay Learnvest for Financial Advice to Convince Wife?
Replies: 30
Views: 1671

Re: Should I Pay Learnvest for Financial Advice to Convince Wife?

And if she becomes convinced Learnvest is the way to go and you want to bail you will have jumped from the frying pan into the fire. A brief perusal of their web page did not suggest any good reason to get involved with them and you could get entangled in things difficult to change later. I have no ...
by dbr
Fri Feb 23, 2018 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still lose with bonds even at duration
Replies: 38
Views: 3901

Re: Still lose with bonds even at duration

Poster lack_ey and others, who know the math, say even in a continually-rising environment you would come out ahead of where you would have been had yields not risen at around two times the average duration. It may be you didn't fully realize it, which is completely understandable because few peopl...
by dbr
Fri Feb 23, 2018 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 183
Views: 13564

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

The advantage of linking SWR to dividends is that it's a naturally safe withdrawal rate, and it responses intelligently to changes in market conditions. A dividend is a signal by the business of sustainable cash flows. Other SWR methods risk withdrawing too much or too litt.e So to be clear, you ar...
by dbr
Fri Feb 23, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method
Replies: 149
Views: 13372

Re: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method

Spending only RMDs is definitely a plausible approach, but it is a very conservative one. It also doesn't deal with irregularity of spending requirements. Before I retired I prepared a detailed retirement budget estimate for spending (excluding taxes). I have been tracking spending since. The avera...
by dbr
Fri Feb 23, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?
Replies: 71
Views: 2737

Re: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?

Money by definition is nominal. That is one reason I can't see why there is a discussion. While money is nominal, financial planning is often done using constant-dollars (which are hypothetical dollars which automatically adjust to CPI inflation). The same goes for returns; mutual funds report thei...
by dbr
Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Financial proposal from Adviser
Replies: 36
Views: 2930

Re: Financial proposal from Adviser

This is a realistic estimate of the midpoint of a range of possible outcomes, some of which could be less, even much less, as well as otheres that could be greater. There is no estimate of how uncertain this is. But the point is not whether or not this is realistic. The point is that whatever happen...
by dbr
Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?
Replies: 71
Views: 2737

Re: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?

It is beyond me how something as basic as the concept of nominal and real in finance can be a discussion. If there is some controversy over either/or the obvious answer is both. I think the issue is the use of the word "money". Is "money" a nominal or a real value? I believe since money is denomina...
by dbr
Fri Feb 23, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Stocks and Bonds Fall
Replies: 24
Views: 1333

Re: When Stocks and Bonds Fall

Yes, but what would ever make you think that bonds have the magnitude of downside that stocks have when such an idea is absurd. It is not the timing but the fact that stocks can fall by tens of percents when bonds can fall by percents. I didn't think I was suggesting that bonds have similar downsid...
by dbr
Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Stocks and Bonds Fall
Replies: 24
Views: 1333

Re: When Stocks and Bonds Fall

Seems like what we have now (and perhaps for the near future, say, a couple of years) with bonds is lower downside than stocks This presumption is absurd. Where did you get it? Ummm...okay, you got me, no excuses, you caught me red handed in the "timing" jar. :wink: I don't think it's unreasonable ...
by dbr
Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurate is Portfolio Visualizer? Vanguard Equity Income vs Total Stock Market
Replies: 3
Views: 526

Re: How accurate is Portfolio Visualizer? Vanguard Equity Income vs Total Stock Market

Playing around on Portfolio Visualizer and I came across an interesting comparison between VTSAX (Total Stock Market) and VEIRX (Vanguard Equity Income Adm. Shares) From September of 2002 until Present, WITHOUT reinvesting dividends, a 1,000,000 portfolio with VEIRX would rise to 1,700,000, while V...
by dbr
Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Stocks and Bonds Fall
Replies: 24
Views: 1333

Re: When Stocks and Bonds Fall

sjwoo wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2018 9:45 am

Seems like what we have now (and perhaps for the near future, say, a couple of years) with bonds is lower downside than stocks
This presumption is absurd. Where did you get it?
by dbr
Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?
Replies: 71
Views: 2737

Re: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?

It is beyond me how something as basic as the concept of nominal and real in finance can be a discussion. If there is some controversy over either/or the obvious answer is both.
by dbr
Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The CFA Designation
Replies: 28
Views: 3117

Re: The CFA Designation

I agree, yes and no. I don't know what "qualified to deal with your money" would mean as 99.9% of the time "dealing with your money" means trying to find a way to take away some of a person's money in the process of "dealing" with it. A more benign way of putting this is that investors can't afford ...
by dbr
Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Recent retiree - where to invest today
Replies: 23
Views: 1853

Re: Recent retiree - where to invest today

Not sure if it makes any difference, but my thinking when I put my money on the sideline on January 26, was that I should be satisfied with the money I made in the 7 months prior to then. It was an incredible run, to be up $30,000 from my original investment last July. I kind of felt, why be greedy...
by dbr
Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Vanguard brokerage culture represent the underlying Vanguard fund?
Replies: 10
Views: 1201

Re: Does Vanguard brokerage culture represent the underlying Vanguard fund?

To suggest that incompetence and/or lack of attention to customer service at the front end is connected with some sort of actual malfeasance in operating the funds is a huge stretch that is not justified. In fact it is a huge stretch to connect incompetence to malfeasance even at the level of custom...
by dbr
Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rick Ferri Fixed Income Portfolio Funds
Replies: 21
Views: 2541

Re: Rick Ferri Fixed Income Portfolio Funds

Thanks, all. I certainly would never blindly make my investment decisions based precisely on any book (let alone an older one), without first doing research on my own, coming to my own informed decision and being confident that my choices are my own and not someone else's. So this is all good food ...
by dbr
Fri Feb 23, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 183
Views: 13564

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

A broad opinion here is not about anti-dividends. It is anti-pro-dividends based on reacting to badly thought out ideas that one fears will not serve investors well. There is always acknowledgement that when something does make sense, then it makes sense.
by dbr
Fri Feb 23, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2075
Views: 1262258

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

I'm quite newbie here Still confused how total return strategy with 3 fund when stock market crashes say 40% from previous high, do we still withdraw at initially decided rate (say 3%), or not drawing Total return is not a strategy. Total return is how you do investment accounting correctly. All wi...
by dbr
Fri Feb 23, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do bond ETFs like BND & TIPS diversify?
Replies: 4
Views: 420

Re: Do bond ETFs like BND & TIPS diversify?

Hey all! I had a question regarding Bond ETFs like BND & TIPS. Recently, with the interest rate going up, my BND & TIPS have seen capital loss & so far, I'm down 2.60% for BND & 1.86% for TIPS overall. I was wondering if ETFs actually have the same diversification as actual bonds? With bonds, you c...
by dbr
Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rick Ferri Fixed Income Portfolio Funds
Replies: 21
Views: 2541

Re: Rick Ferri Fixed Income Portfolio Funds

At least PortfolioVisualizer would give you concrete factual numbers rather than opinions from people who often can't remember anything anyways. Actually not because those calculations don't come with a margin of error with respect to estimating future behavior. The same is of course true of Mr. Fe...
by dbr
Thu Feb 22, 2018 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?
Replies: 71
Views: 2737

Re: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?

It is time for nisiprius to let us in on what the question really is. My question was whether people agree with me that the phrase "losing money" means "to have a small number of dollars at the end of a time period." It does not mean "to have a lower inflation-adjusted real value," nor does it mean...
by dbr
Thu Feb 22, 2018 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rick Ferri Fixed Income Portfolio Funds
Replies: 21
Views: 2541

Re: Rick Ferri Fixed Income Portfolio Funds

I have a 50% intermediate bond and 50% TIPS allocation in fixed income. How it has done is that it has/will moderate the volatility of the overall portfolio at the cost of reduced expected return. I have no idea what the comparison would have been to not having TIPS or adding junk bonds. Estimates o...
by dbr
Thu Feb 22, 2018 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?
Replies: 71
Views: 2737

Re: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?

Everyone agrees the three funds lost purchasing power over the time period but I don't believe that is ever what the expression "losing money" means. When inflation is taken into account people invariably refer to purchasing power or qualify statements with the word "real" as in real return, in real...
by dbr
Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?
Replies: 71
Views: 2737

Re: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?

It is time for nisiprius to let us in on what the question really is.
by dbr
Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?
Replies: 71
Views: 2737

Re: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?

None of the funds lost money. They only made what money got paid out in dividends. YOU lost money to purchase them. They're not made of money, they're made of securities. You spent money to buy them. You COULD sell them for money and it's easy to check the open market for what you'd get at any give...
by dbr
Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?
Replies: 71
Views: 2737

Re: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?

i wonder if all the recent emergency fund threads had anything to do with this :wink: i pick between 2 or 3. IMO any discussion that doesn't take inflation into account is misleading at best and wrong at worst. I agree. That is why terminology using the expression "did/didn't lose money" is mislead...
by dbr
Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?
Replies: 71
Views: 2737

Re: Terminology question: what does "losing money" mean?

If you are talking about "losing money" as normally used the answer is:

"None of the funds lost money by the end of the ten year period."
by dbr
Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Diversification
Replies: 7
Views: 566

Re: Diversification

A balance of total US and total International is perfectly well diversified. Taking sector bets is not recommended. You are already bought in on factor investing, which is plenty enough asset allocation scheming for anyone.
by dbr
Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recessed 4 inch LEDs: Recommended brands
Replies: 25
Views: 1168

Re: Recessed 4 inch LEDs: Recommended brands

I have Feit 2700k bulbs in all the recessed fixtures as well as others throughout my home. Most are on dimmers. I am very happy with the bulbs themselves and the color which changes very little as they are dimmed. For some shifting the color temp down with dimming was a feature which has been lost ...
by dbr
Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Minimum Holding Period for Short Term Corporate Bond ETF
Replies: 4
Views: 233

Re: Minimum Holding Period for Short Term Corporate Bond ETF

Or a day, a week, a month. The point is that interest rates have to change for the fund to lose NAV and very much change is unlikely in a very short period of time. The truth is that you can't make sense of this calculation without a quantitative estimate of future interest rates day by day for howe...
by dbr
Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recessed 4 inch LEDs: Recommended brands
Replies: 25
Views: 1168

Re: Recessed 4 inch LEDs: Recommended brands

I have Feit 2700k bulbs in all the recessed fixtures as well as others throughout my home. Most are on dimmers. I am very happy with the bulbs themselves and the color which changes very little as they are dimmed. For some shifting the color temp down with dimming was a feature which has been lost ...
by dbr
Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rising Bond Yields
Replies: 6
Views: 1051

Re: Rising Bond Yields

Ten years is more than than the Vanguard Intermediate Treasury fund but not by a lot. That would be a choice. Keep in mind that if you buy a 10 year bond at auction today the maturity shortens down to zero as you hold the bond. A fund maintains constant maturity. As rates increase your holding could...
by dbr
Thu Feb 22, 2018 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need to liquidate my PBA Brokerage Account
Replies: 4
Views: 245

Re: Need to liquidate my PBA Brokerage Account

The thing is.. with the market downturn that happened recently I'm unsure as to what I should do. Is it safe to liquidate right now? Would it even matter? If I understand correctly you are selling one set of investments and buying another that is pretty much the same asset allocation. Why would tha...