Search found 44046 matches

by dbr
Sat Apr 01, 2023 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding TIPS funds' NAV
Replies: 99
Views: 6922

Re: Understanding TIPS funds' NAV

VTAPX has a duration of 2.5 years. Between 2013 and now the CAGR has been 1.49%, the standard deviation of annual returns has been 2.34%, the max drawdown has been -4.45%, the worst year has been -2.83%, and the best year has been +5.26%.

If people want an investment that gives a closely predicted payout and a closely predicted return without volatility then bond funds are not the thing to own, not even short ones.
by dbr
Sat Apr 01, 2023 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPS fund huge drop in dividend?
Replies: 14
Views: 1033

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPS fund huge drop in dividend?

I don't know the mechanics involved in that TIPS fund, but here is the list for VSBSX (short Treasury). At least what you see there is a fairly steady reflection of the prevailing interest rates. Date Dividends Jan 31, 2023 0.041 Dividend Dec 22, 2022 0.038 Dividend Nov 30, 2022 0.032 Dividend Oct 31, 2022 0.029 Dividend Sep 30, 2022 0.023 Dividend Aug 31, 2022 0.02 Dividend Jul 29, 2022 0.018 Dividend Jun 30, 2022 0.016 Dividend May 31, 2022 0.013 Dividend Apr 29, 2022 0.009 Dividend Mar 31, 2022 0.008 Dividend Feb 28, 2022 0.005 Dividend Jan 31, 2022 0.005 Dividend Dec 22, 2021 0.005 Dividend Nov 30, 2021 0.004 Dividend Oct 29, 2021 0.005 Dividend Sep 30, 2021 0.004 Dividend Aug 31, 2021 0.005 Dividend Jul 30, 2021 0.005 Dividend Jun 30, ...
by dbr
Sat Apr 01, 2023 12:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard PAS for older retiree
Replies: 8
Views: 544

Re: Vanguard PAS for older retiree

Thanks all for the response. I think the trusted person item may be the most important in the long run. I will talk to them about that. Enjoy your weekend I think honestly PAS is not a serious solution to the oversight a person might need at end of life. Issues are far beyond merely keeping up with an investment portfolio, and, as pointed out, PAS can't refuse to do what the investor tells them so far as withdrawing money or changing the asset allocation. A trusted person with DPOA registered everywhere that matters is important. As an aside, the biggest problem I had as such a trusted person was getting ahold of the mail before it got lost or was dealt with inappropriately. When the water gets shut off because someone who says they are pa...
by dbr
Sat Apr 01, 2023 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPS fund huge drop in dividend?
Replies: 14
Views: 1033

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPS fund huge drop in dividend?

Here are the last ten years quarterly dividends:

Date Dividends
Dec 22, 2022 0.559 Dividend
Sep 30, 2022 0.453 Dividend
Jun 30, 2022 0.342 Dividend
Mar 31, 2022 0.243 Dividend
Dec 22, 2021 0.48 Dividend
Sep 30, 2021 0.436 Dividend
Jun 30, 2021 0.241 Dividend
Mar 24, 2021 0.047 Dividend
Dec 22, 2020 0.167 Dividend
Sep 30, 2020 0.138 Dividend
Dec 20, 2019 0.176 Dividend
Sep 23, 2019 0.219 Dividend
Jun 14, 2019 0.085 Dividend
Dec 12, 2018 0.178 Dividend
Sep 21, 2018 0.263 Dividend
Jun 15, 2018 0.147 Dividend
Dec 22, 2017 0.372 Dividend
Dec 13, 2016 0.187 Dividend
Dec 17, 2014 0.198 Dividend
Dec 19, 2013 0.014 Dividend
Dec 19, 2012 0.026 Dividend
by dbr
Sat Apr 01, 2023 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPS fund huge drop in dividend?
Replies: 14
Views: 1033

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPS fund huge drop in dividend?

I have no idea what explains the dividends of that fund in any particular quarter.

For funds in general it is probably a good idea to look through distribution history and also attend to the return. Portfolio Visualizer can display a lot of data, yearly, monthly, income pay out, return, etc.

I would not invest in a bond fund trying to find a specific dividend payout. A bond fund is probably better used as an asset contributing a certain overall average return at some estimated risk in a portfolio.

If one wants predictable income payments holding bonds individually is probably a more helpful approach. Note that most of us most of the time have no special need to get income payments in particular, but that is a whole different preference.
by dbr
Sat Apr 01, 2023 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My mom's portfolio under the guidance of a CFP/CFA
Replies: 36
Views: 1978

Re: My mom's portfolio under the guidance of a CFP/CFA

Macaroni2629 wrote: Sat Apr 01, 2023 10:22 am

I definitely know more than my mom, but again, I don't know what I don't know? Can you suggest a comprehensive path of learning?
Yes.

One set of resources is the "Getting Started" path in the Wiki, plus the Wiki altogether: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page

Included in that path or selected separately are many, many Boglehead compatible books by many authors, such Bogleheads, Bogle, Ferri, Swedroe, Bernstein, etc. etc. and also other websites such as The Oblivious Investor and The White Coat Investor (for medical professionals). There is also good reading on the Early Retirement Forum (home of FireCalc).
by dbr
Sat Apr 01, 2023 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rick Ferri and Three Fund Portfolio - Rebalancing?
Replies: 21
Views: 3351

Re: Rick Ferri and Three Fund Portfolio - Rebalancing?

Does Rick recommend rebalance, or is it truly a lazy portfolio and you, the customer, are really hands off? I cannot find any reference to rebalancing or not rebalancing "lazy" portfolios. It sounds like what you are looking for is a portfolio you can set and forget. Based on that you would possibly be a good candidate for single all in portfolio such as lifestrategy funds or Ishare funds. Without a doubt "lazy" or "hands-off" should not include the likelihood that the portfolio will drift to unacceptable levels of risk while the investor dozes in la-la land. As you suggest, one path to take is to hold funds of funds that keep a target profile, whether it is a constant profile as in a LifeStrategy fund or a gl...
by dbr
Sat Apr 01, 2023 10:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My mom's portfolio under the guidance of a CFP/CFA
Replies: 36
Views: 1978

Re: My mom's portfolio under the guidance of a CFP/CFA

My mom (age 60's) inherited this money from my grandmother and has been under the guidance of a CFP/CFA at one of the big broker dealers. This money is separate from my parents' other assets which the CFP/CFA does not manage (rough estimate of about a few million). My mom has been working with the same CFP/CFA for 20+ years. She is not financially literate and trusts everything he says. An obvious question would be how or why a financially illiterate person would be depending on an advisor for a small piece of the assets and leaving the larger piece unadvised. I might assume the story is that the husband is managing the couple's assets and for reasons, possibly good reasons, the inheritance has been kept separate. A kind of obvious questio...
by dbr
Sat Apr 01, 2023 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rick Ferri and Three Fund Portfolio - Rebalancing?
Replies: 21
Views: 3351

Re: Rick Ferri and Three Fund Portfolio - Rebalancing?

I do not recommend market timing under current circumstances. When done properly with risk management as the motivation, it doesn't seem to me that rebalancing has anything to do with market timing. It doesn't. The point of rebalancing is to maintain an asset allocation that has been selected for the expected long term return and the risk that the investor wants as a plan. The biggest upset from not rebalancing would be the accumulation over time of a greater fraction of assets in the more risky but higher returning asset. The idea is to not start at 60/40 and end up years later at 90/10 with no thought given to whether or not one wants that risk. An alternative plan could be to not rebalance specifically intending exactly the above result.
by dbr
Sat Apr 01, 2023 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein on TIPS and T-bills
Replies: 154
Views: 17300

Re: Bernstein on TIPS and T-bills

This is excellent and you're very lucky. Although you'd think that BrokerageLink follows the flexibility of a Fidelity account, it also has various rules dependent on the employer's rules. I can choose any funds and ETFs in my BrokerageLink account (linked to my 403b) but no individual bonds. Not all BrokerageLink accounts are created equal. I didn't know that. I thought BrokerageLink provided full trading capabilities for all accounts that could use it. Yup, it's true. When I had access to brokeragelink, it only gave me the ability to invest a certain % of my total 401K assets in any Fidelity Mutual Fund. Better than my 401K choices, but still not exactly what I wanted. Kinda like shopping at Costco. Almost what you're looking for. :D I t...
by dbr
Sat Apr 01, 2023 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity TIPS vs US Bond Index in 401k - fees
Replies: 9
Views: 485

Re: Fidelity TIPS vs US Bond Index in 401k - fees

One would hope not to pay that cost just to obtain an inflation indexed holding. TIPS and Treasuries are probably a wash on long term expectation so that cost would likely rule out any holding of TIPS in that comparison. Comparing to total bond there are more differences in the risk and return prospects but I think that cost is too much to bear.

I hold a 401k of only TIPS funds using a brokerage link in the 401k and holding a fund at 0.05%.
by dbr
Sat Apr 01, 2023 8:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Understanding Yield on Bond ETFs
Replies: 8
Views: 893

Re: Understanding Yield on Bond ETFs

In deciding to invest in bond funds vs CDs, which metric should I look at? A one year CD is about 5.1 percent. How do I compare that with yield on a bond etf? Is the CD at 5.1 a better rate than the AGG etf with a 30 day SEC yield of 3.97? Thank you My opinion is that bond funds are assets to acquire to build an overall portfolio for the long term. Trying to involve yourself in short term comparisons as to how you will make the most money now from bond funds compared to something else does not really compute. Aside from the various meanings of yield there is also the fact that bond funds experience gains and losses due to interest rate changes and those results persist over longer times with complicated mechanisms to rebound from those gai...
by dbr
Fri Mar 31, 2023 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interpreting FIRECALC Results Chart ?
Replies: 3
Views: 600

Re: Interpreting FIRECALC Results Chart ?

A similar chart with a button to choose real or nominal is here: https://engaging-data.com/visualizing-4-rule/
by dbr
Thu Mar 30, 2023 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401Ks Do you save any money?
Replies: 51
Views: 5172

Re: 401Ks Do you save any money?

As above the discussion appears to ignore employer match.

In an unmatched 401k or any other form of pay now vs pay later tax deferral/tax exemption there has to be some calculating. The same is true of the lifetime effect of tax loss harvesting which can also mainly affect timing of tax burden.
by dbr
Wed Mar 29, 2023 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 50/50 VDIGX (Dividend Income), VWELX (Wellington) in IRA?
Replies: 18
Views: 1534

Re: 50/50 VDIGX (Dividend Income), VWELX (Wellington) in IRA?

I strongly suspect you're not gonna get a lot of support for that two fund portfolio. As a matter of fact, I wager in mere minutes you will see posts about converting the money into a three fund portfolio, or a target retirement fund or maybe a life strategy fund. Not me. I class decisions like this as six of one, half of another in a bigger picture. I like to put numbers on things just to give a perspective regarding what this means. Comparing 50/50 of the above to 85 total stock/15 total bond from 1993 to now the CAGRs were 8.92% and 8.99%. The standard deviations of annual returns were 11% and 13%. The significance of the standard deviations is that this indicates an error bound on the CAGRs, maybe about 2%. So does a person want to deb...
by dbr
Wed Mar 29, 2023 8:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS for a near future real-dollar expense
Replies: 11
Views: 842

Re: TIPS for a near future real-dollar expense

A first step would be to estimate the cost in nominal dollars that you think that trip would cost and then make sure you save enough to meet that requirement however the money is placed between now and then. It could be practical to find some TIPS for that but you don't know if that cost will rise with inflation, at some other rate, or even fall over time. It is also practical for the budget for something like that to be far enough into your financial comfort zone that you can accommodate a higher cost without difficulty. Putting some money in TIPS or not should not be a large factor in making this work.
by dbr
Wed Mar 29, 2023 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bond duration glide path for retirement investing
Replies: 208
Views: 36924

Re: A bond duration glide path for retirement investing

You asked for a better bond duration mix? I don't know about better; I think that you are OK as is. I personally don't use total bond. I like TIPS, nominal treasuries, and CDs, so those three make up 100% of my holdings. (Age 75) What should you do? You probably need further study. Have you read any Boglehead authors' books? https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5372762#p5372762 This discussion might be useful: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=7183375#p7183375 I too have long favored TIPS (intermediate duration fund) and that is now my only holding in fixed income. My situation is influenced by having significant pension and Social Security income, the pension being fixed and not inflation indexed. You have to co...
by dbr
Wed Mar 29, 2023 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A bond duration glide path for retirement investing
Replies: 208
Views: 36924

Re: A bond duration glide path for retirement investing

Vineviz, I believe I understand your premise re. matching bond fund duration to “Target” . But, I am having difficulty fully understanding where I fall on this Target spectrum: is it retirement date, life expectancy, or …. Specifically, I am 79, wife is 75. We are retired. We have no need to leave funds for children. We get by on other income and our retirement fund is spent as special needs/wants occur (home renovation, travel, etc.) I am currently at a 35% equity (VTSAX and VTIAX), 65% bond (all VBTLX). Sufficient cash (~18months need) is not included in the allocation. I am keenly aware of interest rate risk and need to determine a better bond duration than the current all intermediate term VBTLX. Can someone clarify for me a better bon...
by dbr
Wed Mar 29, 2023 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Stop Playing”..What Does This Really Mean?
Replies: 70
Views: 6675

Re: “Stop Playing”..What Does This Really Mean?

It was suggested to me that my concern about TIPS in high tax bracket taxable accounts is really about something wise. And after thinking about it, I agree and decided to launch a new topic. What does “if you have won the game, stop playing” actually look like? In particular, what does “stop playing” look like for the person with $10m+ in a taxable account and is in a 40% federal income tax bracket? 1) You have to figure out if you have won the game. That is one discussion. A person with $10M and in a 40% income tax bracket has won the game or not depending on whether or not he can say he now has enough, taxes and everything else taken into account. 2) If the answer is yes then you should take little risk in owning stocks which are too vol...
by dbr
Tue Mar 28, 2023 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Stop Playing”..What Does This Really Mean?
Replies: 70
Views: 6675

Re: “Stop Playing”..What Does This Really Mean?

More specifically Bernstein means reducing risk in stocks. Other sources of risk take more nuanced handling. How risky how much in stocks actually is would also be as nuanced discussion, but I think there is wisdom in the point for some investors. Yeah reducing risk in stocks is easy but maintaining purchasing power while doing so is not. The declining glidepath appears to fit the bill, although "stop playing" sounds more abrupt than the slow glidepath over years and decades. I've never seen how you get around the historical result that a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio has a 96.6% success rate at 4% for 30 years (using this tool as an example: https://engaging-data.com/visualizing-4-rule/ ) but the result at 100% bonds is a 47.9% suc...
by dbr
Tue Mar 28, 2023 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: SWTSX dividend distribution
Replies: 14
Views: 863

Re: SWTSX dividend distribution

Since you said Roth, it is absolutely of no meaning except you probably want to make sure dividends are reinvested and not inadvertently dumped into a settlement fund that gets bigger and bigger.

In taxable accounts some people find it convenient to use the dividend as one method for shifting money out of the stock holding to something else, such as spending it. For such a person an annual dividend may or may not be preferred. That does not mean getting dividend is anything other than a transaction that may or may not be convenient.
by dbr
Tue Mar 28, 2023 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much cash are you holding at sub-optimal interest rates?
Replies: 61
Views: 5697

Re: How much cash are you holding at sub-optimal interest rates?

I store cash at a suboptimal rate not because I am old, which I am, and can't get around, which I can because I can use a computer, but because the whole issue is not important enough to waste time on or to add more accounts to keep in the data base. There are most likely investors for whom the actual financial consequences are more meaningful, or at least those investors think the consequences are meaningful. Your example above would evidently qualify as a case where serious questions would be asked about the use of that money. Perception or misperception of risk would seem to be the dominating factor. The physical branch does grant some additional security. If I received a large check or if I need a cashier check in a hurry. If my accoun...
by dbr
Tue Mar 28, 2023 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Curious about bond direction cause and effects
Replies: 13
Views: 1335

Re: Curious about bond direction cause and effects

To be more direct, buyers of bonds, primary or secondary, bid a price in a market that obtains a given yield. What sets the yield that all the buyers and sellers arrive at, I have no idea. Said yield is hugely affected by the duration of the bond and by faith in the credit of the borrower. It originates in the prospect of future financial gain in lending or borrowing money.
by dbr
Tue Mar 28, 2023 7:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Question
Replies: 186
Views: 11219

Re: Portfolio Question

1) is there any evidence showing benefit to diversifying the bond portion into short , longs etc My opinion is that by far the larger part of portfolio design effects are washed out by the vast uncertainty and unpredictability of investment results. You could say there are benefits but that you will never actually see them. A good start is to consider the problem of how much difference the stock/bond allocation makes. If choosing a variation of 10% in that split does not produce a meaningful difference, which it doesn't, then what would you expect from shifting 10% from intermediate to short bonds? I am convinced that people exaggerate how much their results are a result of their own design, cleverness, and intelligence and how much is a r...
by dbr
Tue Mar 28, 2023 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much cash are you holding at sub-optimal interest rates?
Replies: 61
Views: 5697

Re: How much cash are you holding at sub-optimal interest rates?

I keep about $2k as spending buffer at suboptimal rate. My pay checks get deposited there and it immediately get a fixed amount transferred to a high savings account and other investments. The rest get earmark for bills. I find that some older population store money in subpar accounts because they don’t trust banks without a physical branch, but as they age their ability to get around is reduced, restricting the branch they can visit. This can come in a high cost. The storage of money at subpar rates cost my mom about $800 a month in interest. After much argument, I manage to reduce the loss by convincing her to transfer 2/3 to high yield account but she won’t do more even at a loss of profit. The reason is that she feel it is unsafe. My v...
by dbr
Tue Mar 28, 2023 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Stop Playing”..What Does This Really Mean?
Replies: 70
Views: 6675

Re: “Stop Playing”..What Does This Really Mean?

Goodman60 wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 5:30 am I think it means to reduce risk as much as possible.
More specifically Bernstein means reducing risk in stocks. Other sources of risk take more nuanced handling. How risky how much in stocks actually is would also be as nuanced discussion, but I think there is wisdom in the point for some investors.
by dbr
Tue Mar 28, 2023 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Stop Playing”..What Does This Really Mean?
Replies: 70
Views: 6675

Re: “Stop Playing”..What Does This Really Mean?

The best approach to this question, which comes from an expression of Bill Bernstein, is to go read Bernstein, delete out any reference to playing games, and then read the rest of what he actually has to say. The latter is reasonable material, well explained, and worth thinking about. That does not mean one agrees in detail with everything he says.

The whole situation might be a reminder that investment by aphorism may not be the best approach to it, though probably some people like to think that way.
by dbr
Tue Mar 28, 2023 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Curious about bond direction cause and effects
Replies: 13
Views: 1335

Re: Curious about bond direction cause and effects

You can see here that the yield curve can change a lot regarding the relationship between shorter and longer rates. It is very difficult to think about what the Fed has done/is doing and how bond prices across the durations will move:

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php

You can drag the red cursor to explore history. Note a dominant feature right now is the inverted curve meaning short rates are as high or higher than long rates.
by dbr
Mon Mar 27, 2023 8:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: income tax formula from total taxable income
Replies: 20
Views: 1881

Re: income tax formula from total tax

Why not just use https://sites.google.com/view/incometaxspreadsheet/home ? It looks much more complicated than it is. If you pull in the form for 2023, you can just populate it with info from 2022 returns to get a quick estimate on what your taxes will be. All that is needed after that is to modify the w-2 info, the 1099 info, and any other user specific forms. You could then hide any tabs that don't pertain to you to make it look less forbidding. This spreadsheet has been very accurate in past years. I don't know why anyone would want to create their own. Just my opinion. I don't recall that being available back in 2002, but maybe it was and I missed it. Site has versions as far back as 1996 tax return. Cool Should be useful for some.
by dbr
Mon Mar 27, 2023 7:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: income tax formula from total taxable income
Replies: 20
Views: 1881

Re: income tax formula from total tax

thor111 wrote: Sun Mar 26, 2023 6:17 pm Why not just use https://sites.google.com/view/incometaxspreadsheet/home ? It looks much more complicated than it is. If you pull in the form for 2023, you can just populate it with info from 2022 returns to get a quick estimate on what your taxes will be. All that is needed after that is to modify the w-2 info, the 1099 info, and any other user specific forms. You could then hide any tabs that don't pertain to you to make it look less forbidding. This spreadsheet has been very accurate in past years. I don't know why anyone would want to create their own. Just my opinion.
I don't recall that being available back in 2002, but maybe it was and I missed it.
by dbr
Sun Mar 26, 2023 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Withdrawal rate % change midway through retirement?
Replies: 29
Views: 2473

Re: Withdrawl rate % change midway through retirement?

Percentage-based strategies are withdrawal rates from a probability-based approach. An asset allocation that is probability-based. Some call it the Farmer’s Almanac approach to investing since it relies on historical data to predict the future. Some people are comfortable dying with a large sum of unspent money and some wish to enjoy more of the fruits of their delayed-gratification strategy. Living in constant fear of running out of money during roller coaster gyrations of the market takes a toll on many investors. Some percentage-expressed strategies are a probability-based approach. The 4% SWR stuff is a huge misnomer because it only uses a percentage when you retire, but adjusts CPI thereafter. When i hear the term percentage-based str...
by dbr
Sun Mar 26, 2023 8:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it okay to go to a dentist who is not in your dental insurance network?
Replies: 41
Views: 2731

Re: Is it okay to go to a dentist who is not in your dental insurance network?

The last person I met who avoided dentists for ten years now also avoids dentists because he doesn't have any teeth. He does have a prosthodentist, who, fortunately, is very good. But it isn't cheap.
by dbr
Sun Mar 26, 2023 8:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: income tax formula from total taxable income
Replies: 20
Views: 1881

Re: income tax formula from total tax

I have set up a spreadsheet or two that include some estimation of tax costs. My spreadsheets don't have one simple formula in one cell but rather go through the various steps of how a tax return is filled out and the results computed. It is not all that horrendous but it does take some attention to detail. My spreadsheet work is for me and would not function as an example for someone else.
by dbr
Sun Mar 26, 2023 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monthly or Yearly Withdrawals in Retirement
Replies: 68
Views: 9070

Re: Monthly or Yearly Withdrawals in Retirement

hudson wrote: Sun Mar 26, 2023 8:30 am Whatever works for you is good technique.
Does everything have to be optimal?
Since I want to get as much rent as possible on my money, I only move it to my checking account when needed.
That would be an example of managing asset allocation to stay in higher returning assets as much as possible. The checking account is an investment asset that has poor return.
by dbr
Sun Mar 26, 2023 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monthly or Yearly Withdrawals in Retirement
Replies: 68
Views: 9070

Re: Monthly or Yearly Withdrawals in Retirement

I include checking account cash as an asset. Therefore withdrawals happen only when there is a debit against the account, or directly against some other account for some reason.* Consequently I make withdrawals more or less on a daily basis. Everything else is just asset allocation. I keep maybe 1%-2% in cash so just exactly when that asset gets a little larger or a little smaller is of no consequence.

*The biggest withdrawal most years that is not via the checking account is taking tax withholding on my 401k RMD to pay the total tax bill for the year. That happens in December because you do have to take the RMD and you do need to make the tax payment.
by dbr
Sun Mar 26, 2023 8:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2 year Treasury Note net return question.
Replies: 7
Views: 976

Re: 2 year Treasury Note net return question.

This business of what becomes of the money paid out in interest along the way causes yield and return to be two slightly different things. You can compute yield exactly from the start but return on this investment is a little ambiguous as it is on any investment with cash flows along the way.
by dbr
Sun Mar 26, 2023 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I make some basic investments and refine the details later?
Replies: 26
Views: 1583

Re: Should I make some basic investments and refine the details later?

It is in taxable accounts that changing things around can have costs due to realizing capital gains and paying tax on those. If/when you get to the point of holding significant assets in a taxable account you would want to take some care in what you buy there.
by dbr
Sun Mar 26, 2023 7:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Withdrawal rate % change midway through retirement?
Replies: 29
Views: 2473

Re: Withdrawl rate % change midway through retirement?

Thanks to all who responded. Im lucky enough (not actually luck be that's another conversation) to be able to WD approx 2.5% of my portfolio now but don't want to be hamstrung by not being able to increase in the future. What I think Im learning from this is that it's probably a bigger concern if I was actually WDing a higher % (ie 4%) and then I know I can't increase it and less of an issue when using a low WD% I would not even say that. 4% comes about as being a fail-safe worst case. In reality if you follow that plan most of the outcomes leave you dying wealthy. 2.5% leaves you dying fabulously wealthy. A little way into retirement you will see whether or not you are actually at a worst case. A person starting in 1982 could have safely ...
by dbr
Sat Mar 25, 2023 7:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Withdrawal rate % change midway through retirement?
Replies: 29
Views: 2473

Re: Withdrawl rate % change midway through retirement?

Note that something resembling an actual planner distinct from an academic study would allow one to insert options for increasing or decreasing spending, increasing or decreasing cash income, or add or removing lump sums from the portfolio. Even a simple tool like FireCalc has those options on the "Other Income/Spending" tab and the "Portfolio Changes" tab. A typical example concerning other income would be starting Social Security some years after retirement. Note Safe Withdrawal Rate is not a plan but a set of studies that help one to understand how things work out in the balance between spending and a portfolio keeping up with the withdrawals. A real retirement would hardly want to be hamstrung by following a rigid wi...
by dbr
Sat Mar 25, 2023 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much cash are you holding at sub-optimal interest rates?
Replies: 61
Views: 5697

Re: How much cash are you holding at sub-optimal interest rates?

All of my cash is at low rates. There is so little of it that the rate on it is not relevant.
by dbr
Sat Mar 25, 2023 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VXUS and yield
Replies: 7
Views: 908

Re: VXUS and yield

Issues of what yield is aside, yes it is roughly true that you will be paid out a dividend of about that amount of money. You could go to Portfolio Visualizer and look at the "income" over the years for a fixed dollar amount invested. For $10,000 invested in 2012 and taken out as a withdrawal the "income" has ranged from $312/year to $481/year. The CAGR over that period with dividends removed has been 2.49% and with dividends reinvested 5.50%. The 2022 income was $251 starting with a $10k investment for a ratio of 2.51%. Of course that $10k with the dividends withdrawn had fallen to $8136 by year end. On that price the ratio is 3.1%. Honestly, I would encourage thinking of the value of an investment being best tabulated ...
by dbr
Sat Mar 25, 2023 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk of being out of the market
Replies: 56
Views: 6020

Re: Risk of being out of the market

Personally I view this as a foolish worry. Some days the markets go up 2%, some days go down, and a lot in between. If I had to guess I'd say over the last year the market has had more down days than up days although normally it is the other way. Are you talking millions where 1% would be $10K per million? Or 100K where 1% is $1K? This is one of the things where people remember missing out on profits and forgetting about losses. According to this one web site for the SP500 - https://einvestingforbeginners.com/stock-market-days-vs-percentage/ The percentage of stock market days up from ‘96 – 2016 was 53.3%. The percentage of stock market days down was 46.7%. Updating that further, the percentage of stock market days up (from 2016 – 2021) wa...
by dbr
Sat Mar 25, 2023 8:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asking for Clarification [Wellington vs. Wellesley]
Replies: 11
Views: 1321

Re: Asking for Clairification

I have been looking at Wellington and Wellesley for a few years. If one considers distributions Wellington pays higher than Wells but Welles is an income fund. What am I not understanding? are you sure about that? Wellington yield is 2.66% (sec yield, source: https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vwenx#price) Wellesley yield is 3.28% (source: https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vwiax/vanguard-wellesley-income-fund-admiral-shares#overview) also dividends over 2022 were: Wellington: $1.22454/share Wellesley: $1.924/share it's possible that dividends for Wellesley were lower than Wellington years ago when interest rates on bonds were 1% or less prior to last year when they went from 1% to 4% ove...
by dbr
Fri Mar 24, 2023 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Wellington VWENX for income in retirement
Replies: 58
Views: 4801

Re: Wellington VWENX for income in retirement

Your post prompted me to look at the numbers. In 2022 Wellington (VWENX) delivered $5.489825 per share to investors. Vanguard balanced index fund (VBIAX) delivered $1.121543 per share to investors Except that per-share income isn't relevant unless the share prices are equal. So what was the difference in dividend yield, per dollar (well, maybe per $50k dollars for example, since that's the Wellington share-class minimum)? The data on that is that 12/31/22 VWENX sold at $66.33. The 2022 dividends were $1.553/share and there was a cap gains distribution of $3.937. VBIAX sold at $39.65 on 12/31/22 with dividends of $0.765 and a capital gains distribution of $0.357. So the dividend yield based on year end price for VWENX was 2.34% Based on yea...
by dbr
Fri Mar 24, 2023 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Wellington VWENX for income in retirement
Replies: 58
Views: 4801

Re: Wellington VWENX for income in retirement

Your post prompted me to look at the numbers. In 2022 Wellington (VWENX) delivered $5.489825 per share to investors. Vanguard balanced index fund (VBIAX) delivered $1.121543 per share to investors Except that per-share income isn't relevant unless the share prices are equal. So what was the difference in dividend yield, per dollar (well, maybe per $50k dollars for example, since that's the Wellington share-class minimum)? The data on that is that 12/31/22 VWENX sold at $66.33. The 2022 dividends were $1.553/share and there was a cap gains distribution of $3.937. VBIAX sold at $39.65 on 12/31/22 with dividends of $0.765 and a capital gains distribution of $0.357. So the dividend yield based on year end price for VWENX was 2.34% Based on yea...
by dbr
Fri Mar 24, 2023 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein on TIPS and T-bills
Replies: 154
Views: 17300

Re: Bernstein on TIPS and T-bills

"A bond fund manager recently related to me his difficulty in figuring out the role of TIPS in his portfolios. After fumbling for a reply, I realized that he was right: like Social Security, they don’t occupy a formal slot in most folks’ asset allocation. Rather, they’re an excellent, though still imperfect, supplement to Social Security. In the same way that most retirees don’t capitalize their monthly government checks into the bond component of their portfolios, TIPS should be kept mentally separate from the policy asset allocation as well." Yep. That's the paragraph I've sort of zoned in on as well. As a soon to be retiree I 100% agree with "...they're an excellent, though still imperfect, supplement to Social Security&q...
by dbr
Fri Mar 24, 2023 7:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Wellington VWENX for income in retirement
Replies: 58
Views: 4801

Re: Wellington VWENX for income in retirement

Is this a reasonable plan? What am I overlooking? Thanks. I think it might frustrate you to be selling stocks at a time when they're down 30% but bonds are up 10%. The recent correlation in performance won't always be the case. Separating the asset classes would let you choose what you want to sell. Of course, "up" and "down" is relative and nobody really knows what up or down should be compared to. There have been some discussion of what's "income" in this thread, and my take is that dividends from the fund are income, but capital gains aren't. The IRS has its own view of course but when you compare other fund yields to Wellington, I'd suggest only looking at dividends. I could add a couple of definitional co...
by dbr
Thu Mar 23, 2023 7:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Wellington VWENX for income in retirement
Replies: 58
Views: 4801

Re: Wellington VWENX for income in retirement

In my IRA I have $445K in bond funds VWETX (long term investment grade) and VUSUX (long term treasuries) that I am thinking about exchanging for VWENX Wellington to generate more income (e.g. in 2022 VWENX would have generated $72K in dividends and cap gain distributions vs the $17K in dividends from VUSUX+VWETX). Is this a reasonable plan? What am I overlooking? Thanks. The idea that obtaining income by taking withdrawals from a set of investments requires that those investments deliver those withdrawals in the form of dividends and capital gains distributions is a fundamental misunderstanding of how investing works. It is reasonable to consider what the balance of stocks and bonds in your portfolio might be and what the duration of your ...
by dbr
Thu Mar 23, 2023 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the benefit to the government for issuing inflation-protected securities
Replies: 75
Views: 5924

Re: What is the benefit to the government for issuing inflation-protected securities

It remains a mystery why these are not labeled TIIS Treasury Inflation Indexed Securities. Reading labels on potential investments one might purchase is bad investing because it leads to bad thinking, whether it is the "protected" in TIPS or the "retirement" and date in a target retirement fund, or the "growth" in a growth fund or "value" in a value fund.

The TIPS instrument does what it does given whatever circumstances an investor is in. "Protected" is not a property of investments anymore than "safe" and a lot of other nonsense.
by dbr
Wed Mar 22, 2023 7:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How not to get scammed when doing wheel alignment for $89 ?
Replies: 20
Views: 1905

Re: How not to get scammed when doing wheel alignment for $89 ?

We got 4 new tires after having the old ones for a few years. The wear on the old tires indicated a little bit of an alignment issue (not terrible though). So after getting the 4 new tires, we obviously want to get the wheels aligned. Why is it that when we take our car to get our wheels aligned for $89, they always tell us that we need an additional $500-$1,200 in repairs? Is there a way to get your wheels aligned without getting ripped off ? If you can find a local competent mechanic that are the kind that don't rip people off then you go there for a second opinion. Such places do exist but most likely are not equipped to do alignments. It is entirely possible there are suspension repairs needed. Those may even be the reason for uneven t...