Search found 27152 matches

by dbr
Tue Jul 03, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.
Replies: 169
Views: 13303

Re: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.

The simplest answer to that plan that is not too simple is to simulate a statistical model of the outcome. How, exactly, do you "simulate a statistical model of the outcome" without supplying an input for the parameters of the model? You realize that "expected return" is one of the inputs to such a...
by dbr
Tue Jul 03, 2018 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.
Replies: 169
Views: 13303

Re: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.

And in that respect the uncertainty what will happen in the individual case is so large compared to the differences in the estimates being debated that the result is not actionable except as an exercise in self deception one way or the other. Regardless, we still need to make plans and the best pla...
by dbr
Tue Jul 03, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.
Replies: 169
Views: 13303

Re: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.

And in that respect the uncertainty what will happen in the individual case is so large compared to the differences in the estimates being debated that the result is not actionable except as an exercise in self deception one way or the other. Regardless, we still need to make plans and the best pla...
by dbr
Tue Jul 03, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.
Replies: 169
Views: 13303

Re: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.

If a person truly believe that the next decade was going to be 3% real, shouldnt that person should sell all of her equities and buy treasuries? You would get the same return but none of the risk. What Treasury offers 3% real. The current real interest rates on Treasuries are here: https://www.trea...
by dbr
Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation once you reach your target
Replies: 42
Views: 3293

Re: Asset Allocation once you reach your target

I think it is a useful exercise for anyone asking about this sort of thing to go to www.firecalc.com , enter some plausible scenario, and then examine the chart of outcomes for the various samples of retirement years over history. One can adjust the asset allocation and see what changes. For conveni...
by dbr
Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.
Replies: 169
Views: 13303

Re: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.

In a business environment if I got this question from a client/stakeholder I would ask "Why? What do you plan to do with the information?". Because unless the answer is to the OP's question will result in in changing his AA, what possible value would the answer have. Some people are still saving mo...
by dbr
Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Destination - are you happy with your choice?
Replies: 127
Views: 16295

Re: Retirement Destination - are you happy with your choice?

Our decision is not to move. We like it where we are. PS I would add that I find it odd that people who ask this question seem to be focused on the climate when there are many other considerations that seem to me to be more important. What is especially true about climate is that nowhere actually ha...
by dbr
Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bonds or bond funds?
Replies: 39
Views: 2531

Re: bonds or bond funds?

I don't understand bond funds, so my 401k contributions go into a stock fund. I'm thinking about diversifying. I'd like to make sure that $$ going into bonds will make make gains. Since bond funds can lose money, I shy away from them. I'm not sure if I can buy bonds directly (with, say, 5k). I'm mo...
by dbr
Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not go 100% stocks?
Replies: 125
Views: 14574

Re: Why not go 100% stocks?

The only reason not to be 100% in stocks is because the volatility of the same is too high for you. Volatility causes stress and dumb mistakes, like selling when the stock market plunges. Volatility is even more stressful if you are retired. Bonds lower the volatility of your portfolio. Volatility ...
by dbr
Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Assisted living move for my elderly parents
Replies: 8
Views: 1425

Re: Assisted living move for my elderly parents

My experience is that a first stop for understanding terms and conditions and contingencies is indeed an advisor at the facility. This is not new to them.
by dbr
Tue Jul 03, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends are not coupons(interest)
Replies: 32
Views: 2036

Re: Dividends are not coupons(interest)

In the past, we could refer to bonds as "fixed income". A deal is agreed to, and the income from the interest was guaranteed (mostly) to be paid according to the agreed upon schedule. If not paid, the bond owner could take legal measures to enforce the contract. A dividend, on the other hand, was n...
by dbr
Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do We need health insurance??
Replies: 137
Views: 9706

Re: Do We need health insurance??

Thank you all for your responses. Does anyone know of a place for ultra high deductible insurance plans? I am willing to assume some risk. I really don’t want to game the system, but can’t I skate along, until one of us get sick and than sign up? Obviously something catastrophic or an accident then...
by dbr
Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends are not coupons(interest)
Replies: 32
Views: 2036

Re: Dividends are not coupons(interest)

In the past, we could refer to bonds as "fixed income". A deal is agreed to, and the income from the interest was guaranteed (mostly) to be paid according to the agreed upon schedule. If not paid, the bond owner could take legal measures to enforce the contract. A dividend, on the other hand, was n...
by dbr
Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fed survey: 40% of adults cannot cover a $400 emergency expense
Replies: 48
Views: 5305

Re: Fed survey: 40% of adults cannot cover a $400 emergency expense

I'm sorry. I know people who can't cover a $400 emergency expense. I also know why, and believe me, it is not because they have irresponsibly failed to be virtuous. Bad things happen to good people. Bad things also happen to bad people. I would refrain from generalization and stereotypes.
by dbr
Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Transporting bikes with an SUV?
Replies: 38
Views: 2017

Re: Transporting bikes with an SUV?

When biking with a team we had an enclosed trailer outfitted with attachments to hang and secure the bikes. That way we got easy to use loading and unloading, secure and weather proof storage, and use of a vehicle (the trailer) that is not compromised by more or less safe and secure attachments that...
by dbr
Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends are not coupons(interest)
Replies: 32
Views: 2036

Re: Dividends are not coupons(interest)

In the past, we could refer to bonds as "fixed income". A deal is agreed to, and the income from the interest was guaranteed (mostly) to be paid according to the agreed upon schedule. If not paid, the bond owner could take legal measures to enforce the contract. A dividend, on the other hand, was n...
by dbr
Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is warren buffet okay with no owning any bonds?
Replies: 48
Views: 4850

Re: Why is warren buffet okay with no owning any bonds?

rimfire wrote:
Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:36 am

I think sometimes WEB is taken too literally and just the little sound bites you hear on the financial news distort the true meaning.
Investing by sound bite is a common practice here and elsewhere. The middle step is to stop and ask first. Hence threads like this one.
by dbr
Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.
Replies: 169
Views: 13303

Re: Expected returns for 80/20 stock bond for next 10 years.

In any case one should put a standard deviation of maybe 6% around that 5% estimate and two standard deviations of 12%. Maybe the best number is "between -7% and +18%." If one wants to believe the right expected return is 7%, then we will say "between -5% and +20%." Note that trying to understand wh...
by dbr
Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Your Feedback on 100% VTSAX
Replies: 39
Views: 4161

Re: Need Your Feedback on 100% VTSAX

dogagility: Should I even bother with treasuries if I am using Ally Savings Account/CD's? What are the advantages? That sort of thing is another example of being complete. There are lots of options in fixed income with big little differences among them but only little big differences. Are there adv...
by dbr
Tue Jul 03, 2018 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends are not coupons(interest)
Replies: 32
Views: 2036

Re: Dividends are not coupons(interest)

People selling, or enthusiastic about other asset classes like to shift the ground on "why bonds" by suggesting that the fundamental thing about bonds isn't debt-versus-equity, guaranteed-versus-not-guaranteed, it's that bonds "provide an income stream." They then argue that you can think of anythi...
by dbr
Mon Jul 02, 2018 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Strategy for my employer’s ESPP?
Replies: 27
Views: 1517

Re: Strategy for my employer’s ESPP?

Sure, you sell immediately and get a pay increase of 0.5% Whoopee. Of course if they are charging you a transaction cost to sell, that kind of sucks. What kind of people are these anyway? It used to be at my employer we got a monthly allocation at 15% discount and 10% of salary. They booked the gran...
by dbr
Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to find a complete list of 403b fees in TIAA plan?
Replies: 9
Views: 577

Re: How to find a complete list of 403b fees in TIAA plan?

Thanks, House Blend. I am having a minor conniption fit over here. The fee structure is set up so that investors in index funds (including TIAA indices) are effectively subsidizing participants who purchase the annuity products. I do not have any Plan Servicing Fees subtracted from my TIAA accounts...
by dbr
Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends are not coupons(interest)
Replies: 32
Views: 2036

Re: Dividends are not coupons(interest)

... I once read that the opening "bid" on stock exchanges is in fact adjusted after a dividend payable date is reached so that the market opens appropriately. I am not sure I understand that process. ... Should investors leave limit orders open overnight the exchange adjusts them by the amount of t...
by dbr
Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends are not coupons(interest)
Replies: 32
Views: 2036

Re: Dividends are not coupons(interest)

The real confusion, though, is when people think of stock dividends being like interest. I think that is one of the starting points for confusion about "dividend investing" and about principal and income.
by dbr
Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends are not coupons(interest)
Replies: 32
Views: 2036

Re: Dividends are not coupons(interest)

I think I agree with the point of your discussion. It probably needs to be shorter. The essence of the comment is that dividends are a payment out of the assets of the company. At the time the payment is made the assets will become less by that amount, all other transactions accounted for. Between d...
by dbr
Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund
Replies: 135
Views: 9490

Re: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund

Of course some could argue that a portfolios dividends and capital gains are principal as well. A really wise investor would accept that, when it comes to stocks or equity funds, there is really no such thing as "principal". It's a term people use all the time, but it has no real meaning in this co...
by dbr
Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 72
Views: 9426

Re: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

After asking my plan administer about adding the Vanguard Total Bond Fund I received the following response..."I would highly recommend against adding a bond index fund to the plan in a rising interest rate environment. While I am a big fan of index funds and one is offered in every other asset cla...
by dbr
Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 72
Views: 9426

Re: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

After asking my plan administer about adding the Vanguard Total Bond Fund I received the following response..."I would highly recommend against adding a bond index fund to the plan in a rising interest rate environment. While I am a big fan of index funds and one is offered in every other asset cla...
by dbr
Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to document a verbal conversation for future legal reasons.
Replies: 21
Views: 3097

Re: How to document a verbal conversation for future legal reasons.

How about summarizing the conversation in an email to yourself? Simple and puts a time stamp on it. There were a couple of suggestions like this. I am not sure, but wouldn't all such things fail to stand up against no proof that both the timing and the content might be/have been manipulated. Maybe ...
by dbr
Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Your Feedback on 100% VTSAX
Replies: 39
Views: 4161

Re: Need Your Feedback on 100% VTSAX

Hello, Thank you for all your answer to my questions during July 2017. After some research (bogleheads and JLCollins) and additional savings, I have decided to invest $55K in VTSAX (Admiral) over the course of the next three months. After that, I will be adding $1700 of monthly salary towards this ...
by dbr
Mon Jul 02, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sanity check for retiree asset allocation heavy on CDs
Replies: 20
Views: 1890

Re: Sanity check for retiree asset allocation heavy on CDs

taxable or tax advantaged account). My reasoning for holding CDs (which may be faulty) is that they're FDIC insured and return higher interest than I-bonds. I'm thinking that if composite I-bond rates get higher than a 2 year CD, I could redirect money at that time. Every few months I have a CD mat...
by dbr
Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to document a verbal conversation for future legal reasons.
Replies: 21
Views: 3097

Re: How to document a verbal conversation for future legal reasons.

These replies suggest that if this issue is really important people should conclude an agreement in writing rather than rely on oral. Maybe the problem is that one party does not agree to do that or is no longer accessible.
by dbr
Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sanity check for retiree asset allocation heavy on CDs
Replies: 20
Views: 1890

Re: Sanity check for retiree asset allocation heavy on CDs

Some possible issues to anticipate (also mentioned in part by others): 1. Inflation. This depends on whether that pension income is COLA'd or fixed. If it is fixed you should run some models such as FireCalc to get a feel for what inflation has done in the past to retirement situations. 2. Continge...
by dbr
Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividend Tax Withholding at Vanguard?
Replies: 10
Views: 1338

Re: Dividend Tax Withholding at Vanguard?

Depending on the size of your RMD, you might consider taking it in December and setting withholding at whatever you estimate is needed to cover your tax payment for the year. Such withholding is considered to apply across the year. I never have withholding taken from anything automatically. In some ...
by dbr
Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to find a complete list of 403b fees in TIAA plan?
Replies: 9
Views: 577

Re: How to find a complete list of 403b fees in TIAA plan?

In cases like this it is best to call and ask. Just reading the language it says to me 0.4%/annum. You might compare what they say for these Vanguard funds to what the ERs and fees are on other funds in the list.
by dbr
Mon Jul 02, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sanity check for retiree asset allocation heavy on CDs
Replies: 20
Views: 1890

Re: Sanity check for retiree asset allocation heavy on CDs

Some possible issues to anticipate (also mentioned in part by others): 1. Inflation. This depends on whether that pension income is COLA'd or fixed. If it is fixed you should run some models such as FireCalc to get a feel for what inflation has done in the past to retirement situations. 2. Contingen...
by dbr
Sun Jul 01, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 72
Views: 9426

Re: Using the Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

This misunderstanding by long term investors that they have to guarantee the return of an exact number of dollars at an exact time causes more useless threads on this forum than any other single issue, at least seemingly so. It may be that what is at heart is a complete misunderstanding of the purpo...
by dbr
Sun Jul 01, 2018 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401(k) bond fund question: Active or Index?
Replies: 4
Views: 406

Re: 401(k) bond fund question: Active or Index?

I don't know enough about the details of those funds to go down in the weeds between them, but what I can say is that when thinking about the expected return of your portfolio the handle to turn is the stock/bond allocation rather than to split hairs over the return of various bond funds. I would su...
by dbr
Sun Jul 01, 2018 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Affect of Rising Interest Rates on Vanguard Total Bond Index
Replies: 43
Views: 8895

Re: Affect of Rising Interest Rates on Vanguard Total Bond Index

nisiprius, Thank you for the amazing clarity and detailed explanation of the hidden facts! Always a pleasure to lean from your posts! Happy New Year to you, and all! With the stock market rise, the allocations made couple of years ago are now out-of-whack. I wonder whether members are now making re...
by dbr
Sun Jul 01, 2018 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax? Capital Gains on Funds sold from Broker then purchased w/Fidelity
Replies: 3
Views: 432

Re: Tax? Capital Gains on Funds sold from Broker then purchased w/Fidelity

I read that the selling already happened last year. That means the sale would be reported on a 1099 from W&R and should have been reported on your tax return for 2017. When it (was) reported you would have also had to enter the cost basis, which would be very close to or the same as the selling pric...
by dbr
Sun Jul 01, 2018 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What’s your plan for a market downturn?
Replies: 114
Views: 10360

Re: What’s your plan for a market downturn?

A person holding 100% stocks also has a plan for a market downturn. The plan is to do nothing and recognize that the higher expected return comes with more long term uncertainty, of which market downturns are steps on the path. An advantage is that such an investor does not have to buy any other ass...
by dbr
Sun Jul 01, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it ok to invest in bonds?
Replies: 39
Views: 5154

Re: Is it ok to invest in bonds?

Let's say your time horizon is 5 to 10 years, would it be better to hold CDs or a bond index fund ? It depends on what you mean by better . If you mean will end up having had a higher return , even if you'll tell us which bond index fund you're talking about, the answer is unknown and unknowable. W...
by dbr
Sat Jun 30, 2018 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What’s your plan for a market downturn?
Replies: 114
Views: 10360

Re: What’s your plan for a market downturn?

UpperNwGuy wrote:
Sat Jun 30, 2018 6:47 pm
I will continue to invest according to my plan. Why would I do otherwise? What kind of response were you hoping to get from us?
He wants to see if anyone will support the suggestion of selling some of his equities and buying back in when the market falls.
by dbr
Sat Jun 30, 2018 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it ok to invest in bonds?
Replies: 39
Views: 5154

Re: Is it ok to invest in bonds?

Using mortgage interest rates as a proxy . . . 1981 16% + then a long term downward trend to 3.6% in 2017. That is the past environment for interest rates in general. Falling interest rates are favorable for bonds. A 35 + year trend has essentially leveled off over the past 5 years or so. Something...
by dbr
Sat Jun 30, 2018 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it ok to invest in bonds?
Replies: 39
Views: 5154

Re: Is it ok to invest in bonds?

Using mortgage interest rates as a proxy . . . 1981 16% + then a long term downward trend to 3.6% in 2017. That is the past environment for interest rates in general. Falling interest rates are favorable for bonds. A 35 + year trend has essentially leveled off over the past 5 years or so. Something...
by dbr
Sat Jun 30, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: glass cancer?( watermark etching)
Replies: 24
Views: 2858

Re: glass cancer?( watermark etching)

One might want to check out postings on Garden Web/Bathrooms https://www.houzz.com/discussions/bathrooms

or

http://www.johnbridge.com/vbulletin/index.php

Some aspects of cleaning and restoring shower tile would apply to shower door glass.
by dbr
Sat Jun 30, 2018 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it ok to invest in bonds?
Replies: 39
Views: 5154

Re: Is it ok to invest in bonds?

Using mortgage interest rates as a proxy . . . 1981 16% + then a long term downward trend to 3.6% in 2017. That is the past environment for interest rates in general. Falling interest rates are favorable for bonds. A 35 + year trend has essentially leveled off over the past 5 years or so. Something...
by dbr
Sat Jun 30, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Critique my Portfolio, possibly too much cash?
Replies: 5
Views: 808

Re: Critique my Portfolio, possibly too much cash?

Thanks. The question is that should I invest 150k and reap 7-8 % return and take 150k loan when I buy house? Of course. That is a standard question many people have to decide. You can probably find many previous discussions as well. The comment is that one does not reap 7-8% return. What one buys i...
by dbr
Sat Jun 30, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with lump sum investment...
Replies: 7
Views: 826

Re: Help with lump sum investment...

Correct, I am worried I won’t have the income over the next several years (5-10 years from now) to max out every account (that has yearly contribution limits) However, it does make sense on what you are saying that it is merely a transfer of money rather than a draw down on an account. I guess my c...
by dbr
Sat Jun 30, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it ok to invest in bonds?
Replies: 39
Views: 5154

Re: Is it ok to invest in bonds?

Yes, invest in bonds if that fits your asset allocation plan, which you have, right? Interest rates are always changing and it is impossible to predict exactly how much when. It is already all taken care of in the estimated volatility of bonds, which is much less than that of stocks. The only person...