Search found 29144 matches

by dbr
Tue Jun 25, 2019 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Firecalc why/when can you adjust your spending?
Replies: 10
Views: 465

Re: Firecalc why/when can you adjust your spending?

And, in general, the idea that retirement is an exercise in successive approximations continues through retirement and not just up to it.
by dbr
Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: A will and someone on disability
Replies: 2
Views: 148

Re: A will and someone on disability

Gill, are you sure the provision of a rent free home will not affect various forms of public assistance? I don't know for a fact there is a problem here, but I do know those programs are complicated and have a lot of rules and restrictions.
by dbr
Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Firecalc why/when can you adjust your spending?
Replies: 10
Views: 465

Re: Firecalc why/when can you adjust your spending?

I think the best answer is probably to look at a tool like VPW https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Variable_percentage_withdrawal that actually tells you what to do when the portfolio rises or falls (technically when returns are better or worse). Next after that I would just stay the course because you ...
by dbr
Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the risk of loss greater in a concentrated portfolio?
Replies: 13
Views: 659

Re: Why is the risk of loss greater in a concentrated portfolio?

To put it concretely: how many publicly-traded companies have gone bankrupt in the last X years? How many times has the S&P500 been worth zero in the last X years? A largeloss (including total loss of portfolio) is more likely when concentrated. Note that symmetrically, a large gain is also more li...
by dbr
Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Botched transfer? Security sold instead of transferred
Replies: 11
Views: 404

Re: Botched transfer? Security sold instead of transferred

If you ordered that TDA initiate a transfer of a security from Vanguard to TDA then there is no way there could be a sell order. TDA does not have any authority to initiate a sale of your securities at Vanguard. Hopefully your instructions to TDA were in writing and you can have them follow up on t...
by dbr
Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me better understand volatility
Replies: 5
Views: 407

Re: Help me better understand volatility

1. If I'm in the accumulation stage and my goal is simply to maximize returns (and I view downturns and stocks going on sale rather than a time to panic), is there any reason to worry about volatility at all? Yes, because short term volatility compounds to produce a wide range of possible long term...
by dbr
Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Botched transfer? Security sold instead of transferred
Replies: 11
Views: 404

Re: Botched transfer? Security sold instead of transferred

If you ordered that TDA initiate a transfer of a security from Vanguard to TDA then there is no way there could be a sell order. TDA does not have any authority to initiate a sale of your securities at Vanguard. Hopefully your instructions to TDA were in writing and you can have them follow up on th...
by dbr
Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Research Paper on Inflation
Replies: 7
Views: 1007

Re: Vanguard Research Paper on Inflation

grok87 wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 6:22 am
TIL vanguard does not understand asset liability matching.
Agreed, and they also don't understand that correlation is not a measure of protection nor the difference between inflation risk, interest rate risk, and reinvestment risk. These comments have to do with longer TIPS.
by dbr
Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Subaru Ascent vs Toyota Highlander...
Replies: 37
Views: 3655

Re: Subaru Ascent vs Toyota Highlander...

Before we bought the first Subaru, my wife test drove a Toyota Highlander, twice. At the conclusion of each test drive, she asked the Toyota salesman to park it. The second time, I asked her why she didn't want to park it and she replied that she couldn't see out the back window (visibility issue) ...
by dbr
Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone knew the answer where the money is
Replies: 20
Views: 2848

Re: Anyone knew the answer where the money is

How can a broker initiate a transfer from another broker based on nothing more than a phone call? I have only ever done that by filling out a form, and in several instances that form had to be signed on paper and mailed in or at least scanned and submitted electronically as a file with a signature i...
by dbr
Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the risk of loss greater in a concentrated portfolio?
Replies: 13
Views: 659

Re: Why is the risk of loss greater in a concentrated portfolio?

If you owned one stock and it was GM, then you lost everything permanently. If you owned the total stock market then your investment declined by 30 or 40 percent but has since recovered in spades. If you owned half stocks and half bonds then that decline was 15-20 percent, and if it didn't recover, ...
by dbr
Mon Jun 24, 2019 4:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Index fund (voo) returns?
Replies: 19
Views: 1108

Re: Index fund (voo) returns?

The late John Bogle said that future returns will not be what we have seen from 1982 to the present. A mix of the S & P 500 fund and bonds, perhaps 60 percent VOO and 40 percent bonds he would expect to return 4 to 5 percent annually. Of course that is over the long term. The posters talking about ...
by dbr
Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Reinvesting Dividends or no
Replies: 33
Views: 2966

Re: Reinvesting Dividends or no

If you aren't reinvesting the dividends either immediately back in the funds that issued them or in some other appropriate investment, then what are you doing with them? It might be good to be clear what you are asking. I’m immediately reinvesting in the find that issued them. In that case if you w...
by dbr
Mon Jun 24, 2019 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moving from multiple accounts to Merrill Edge or Premium?
Replies: 12
Views: 787

Re: Moving from multiple accounts to Merrill Edge or Premium?

Not sure why people are talking about management. The OP didn't mention it. Merrill Edge is a discount brokerage and it is perfectly set up for DIY investing. I have a lot of my assets there. I have generated thousands in bonuses from them. The OP is already set up for Preferred Rewards, so no prob...
by dbr
Mon Jun 24, 2019 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why does AA matter as long as I stick to it?
Replies: 23
Views: 1810

Re: Why does AA matter as long as I stick to it?

A comment on "stay the course" is that this is a meaningless and useless comment without some context around it. What that should mean is to not ignorantly and irrationally change investment plans frequently. It could mean to avoid trying to time the market. It does not mean that an asset allocation...
by dbr
Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Index fund (voo) returns?
Replies: 19
Views: 1108

Re: Index fund (voo) returns?

There is no way to know what to really expect other than that what will have happened will not be what one might have expected to happen on average. As to bonds, it is possible in an interval of time to end up with a better result in bonds than in stocks, but it is not very likely, at least not afte...
by dbr
Mon Jun 24, 2019 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Federal retirement benefits/ court order
Replies: 15
Views: 1440

Re: Federal retirement benefits/ court order

Thank you. Yes, my friends spouse retired. My friend was talked into not making a spousal claim against the (federal employee) spouses pension. They remained married for sometime, but are now divorcing. Right. I don't know enough about the legal standing of disputes about these claims to say more. ...
by dbr
Mon Jun 24, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Federal retirement benefits/ court order
Replies: 15
Views: 1440

Re: Federal retirement benefits/ court order

Do you mean the husband is already retired and the spouse signed off on the choice of rate of survivor benefits? The situation may be explained here: http://www.federalretirement.net/survivorconcerns.htm I am not an expert but it seems unlikely a pension choice like this can be reversed because paym...
by dbr
Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why does AA matter as long as I stick to it?
Replies: 23
Views: 1810

Re: Why does AA matter as long as I stick to it?

It depends on how much your AA affects your ability to meet your goals. Just as examples, if you are retired and are wealthy enough compared to what you want to spend, AA does not matter. If you are retired and not so wealthy that it doesn't matter, asset allocation has a weak effect on retirement s...
by dbr
Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moving from multiple accounts to Merrill Edge or Premium?
Replies: 12
Views: 787

Re: Moving from multiple accounts to Merrill Edge or Premium?

You need to look at costs. Any arrangement that involves "wealth management" or hiring an advisor is likely to be a bad idea unless you have extenuating circumstances that require paying for help (which it does not seem you need). If your wife already has an account at Vanguard, why not consolidate ...
by dbr
Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Reinvesting Dividends or no
Replies: 33
Views: 2966

Re: Reinvesting Dividends or no

If you aren't reinvesting the dividends either immediately back in the funds that issued them or in some other appropriate investment, then what are you doing with them? It might be good to be clear what you are asking.
by dbr
Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Simple Retirement Calculators?
Replies: 10
Views: 715

Re: Simple Retirement Calculators?

I like FireCalc and the Fidelity planner looks good. VPW is a much worthwhile innovation in the area. It might be a little more complicated to think about VPW, but simple can be too simple. Real life will turn out to be more complicated than all of them, but successive simple approximations make sen...
by dbr
Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Div Reinvest When Starting Withdrawals?
Replies: 6
Views: 559

Re: Div Reinvest When Starting Withdrawals?

If you are withdrawing from a taxable account it makes sense not to reinvest dividends as the tax cost is a little lower to just withdraw rather than reinvest and then sell things to withdraw. In an IRA it might be convenient to just withdraw the dividends and not make any additional transactions to...
by dbr
Sun Jun 23, 2019 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which Bond Fund to Choose in 401k?
Replies: 7
Views: 632

Re: Which Bond Fund to Choose in 401k?

I wouldn't bother putting 5% in bonds. If you don't want to be 100% stocks, then when and how far you might go remains to be determined, but thinking 20%-30% would not be crazy. Graham's recommendation that stocks never be less than 25% or more than 75% is not a bad thought to consider. You might be...
by dbr
Sun Jun 23, 2019 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: roofer randomly showing up to home
Replies: 28
Views: 763

Re: roofer randomly showing up to home

If there were special issues and there was a salesman, what was the salesman doing -- wouldn't that be the place to discuss scope of work? That would include possibly needing some kind of inspection beyond simply estimating a re-shingle.
by dbr
Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: roofer randomly showing up to home
Replies: 28
Views: 763

Re: roofer randomly showing up to home

Katietsu wrote:
Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:53 am
Totally normal. Completely annoying. Sitting in your driveway on their phone for several minutes before exiting the vehicle ...also normal. At least, it seems like you were up, dressed and not horribly inconvenienced by the timing.
At least he is not trying to talk on the phone while driving.
by dbr
Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: roofer randomly showing up to home
Replies: 28
Views: 763

Re: roofer randomly showing up to home

Does not seem peculiar to me. These guys are not the most astute business people because they are used to hammers, nails, nail guns, and building supplies. That is, they are not used to people. I understand your angle, but thats a very broad generalization of an entire group of people as not every ...
by dbr
Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: roofer randomly showing up to home
Replies: 28
Views: 763

Re: roofer randomly showing up to home

There are lots of contractors that have a very casual attitude about when and where they work, not having a sense that it might matter to some people. I have gotten accustomed to contractors that don't work that way and do have regard for the customer's time and arrangements. If you have a choice an...
by dbr
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help understanding mutual fund tax-adjusted return
Replies: 25
Views: 2016

Re: Help understanding mutual fund tax-adjusted return

Also - on the charts where you can compare fund returns (which I've learned include dividends)... am I correct in assuming the charts are not "tax adjusted"? It wouldn't be a very good idea to include a chart where the result would apply differently to every different single investor. It goes to th...
by dbr
Sat Jun 22, 2019 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing to Oblivion
Replies: 39
Views: 2783

Re: Rebalancing to Oblivion

Two points we should be clear on: 1. Proposals not to rebalance into stocks when stocks decline still include that one would rebalance out of stocks if the stock allocation gets too large. It is not the same thing as simply never rebalancing. Also the conversation probably makes more sense when we a...
by dbr
Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing to Oblivion
Replies: 39
Views: 2783

Re: Rebalancing to Oblivion

I am perfectly comfortable for a retiree not to rebalance into stocks when stocks take a dip. Probably, however, when such a thing happens and one sells assets to take a withdrawal that sale would come from bonds, thus is "closet" rebalancing.
by dbr
Sat Jun 22, 2019 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help understanding mutual fund tax-adjusted return
Replies: 25
Views: 2016

Re: Help understanding mutual fund tax-adjusted return

It should be a mistake to publish a tax adjusted return because the tax cost to an individual associated in some way with income from owning the fund would depend on the specific individual tax situation and what scenario one imagines for when the fund is owned, etc. I am a little confused about ho...
by dbr
Sat Jun 22, 2019 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Short-term planning for excess cash
Replies: 3
Views: 512

Re: Short-term planning for excess cash

There can be a legitimate gray area between long term investing and holding money to be used in a shorter term. But there are a lot of shades of gray so it is a matter of choice and judgement how you want to handle this. If you really are petty serious about buying a house in less than five years it...
by dbr
Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advantage of T-bills?
Replies: 20
Views: 2160

Re: Advantage of T-bills?

Investments have risk.* That includes that even short term Treasuries vary in the interest rate that is paid.

*Risk means the variability in return. For a T-bill the return is the yield and that varies over time.
by dbr
Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help understanding mutual fund tax-adjusted return
Replies: 25
Views: 2016

Re: Help understanding mutual fund tax-adjusted return

It should be a mistake to publish a tax adjusted return because the tax cost to an individual associated in some way with income from owning the fund would depend on the specific individual tax situation and what scenario one imagines for when the fund is owned, etc. I am a little confused about how...
by dbr
Fri Jun 21, 2019 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate stock picking performance?
Replies: 34
Views: 1376

Re: How to calculate stock picking performance?

The question is which of the two, time or money weighted is what you want to know. Time weighted would tell you how effectively you found good returns even if you put very little into the investment or didn't leave it there very long. Money weighted would tell you how much you benefited from doing ...
by dbr
Fri Jun 21, 2019 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Great-West Select Guarantee Fund
Replies: 4
Views: 365

Re: Great-West Select Guarantee Fund

According to this "As a general account product offered through the group annuity contract, participant principal and interest are fully guaranteed by the entire general account assets of GWL&A." if the company goes bust you go bust. That sounds like a really bad idea. I don't think you should have ...
by dbr
Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation - Risk
Replies: 15
Views: 1199

Re: Asset Allocation - Risk

The objective thought is that you can only answer a question like this through subjective analysis of what it is you want, after which you find where the best match to that is with asset allocation. It is a matter of personal preference and judgement.
by dbr
Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do large personal portfolios include bonds?
Replies: 168
Views: 12356

Re: Why do large personal portfolios include bonds?

Indeed. And the returns that KlangFool cites are nominal. If you pull out approximately 3% inflation over that period, you see that the difference between 5.8% real returns and 7.3% real returns, 26% higher in the latter case, can indeed by very significant. Many here would go to far lengths in ord...
by dbr
Fri Jun 21, 2019 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate stock picking performance?
Replies: 34
Views: 1376

Re: How to calculate stock picking performance?

The correct way to measure a portfolio's performance compared to a benchmark (eg. vs Total Stock Market) is to use time weighted returns (not IRR / dollar weighted returns). It's the methodology recommended on the Bogleheads wiki to compare a portfolio's performance to a benchmark, and it's the onl...
by dbr
Fri Jun 21, 2019 11:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds in a Taxable Account
Replies: 21
Views: 2256

Re: Bonds in a Taxable Account

Why is this forum so biased against bonds in taxable? It isn't obvious that bonds shouldn't live in taxable. Let's see the math. It's pretty close when you consider weighting equities in tax deferred (for growth) vs. the tax hit from bonds in taxable. It is a valid point that the math has to be don...
by dbr
Fri Jun 21, 2019 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation - Risk
Replies: 15
Views: 1199

Re: Asset Allocation - Risk

I think a very helpful view of what return and variability of return is all about over time is to go into FireCalc and run the program without withdrawals, either with no contributions on an initial amount or with a schedule of contributions and attend to the chart of what actually happened in all t...
by dbr
Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to add Bonds to portfolio?
Replies: 10
Views: 954

Re: How to add Bonds to portfolio?

So maybe a stupid question, but I'd like to get some feedback on advice on how to add bonds to my portfolio. Currently I am 100% stock, in my mid 30s. Current balance is ~$200k. I would like to start adding some bonds to the mix. All 401k money. Do I just sell say 30% of my stock holdings and buy b...
by dbr
Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Purpose of Stocks?
Replies: 20
Views: 1311

Re: Purpose of Stocks?

You can obtain a lot of distributed earnings (aka dividends) between now and when a company finally dies. Also many company "deaths" involve being merged or acquired or liquidated resulting in continuation or return of capital to you. The biggest rate of capital gain I ever experienced was when a ho...
by dbr
Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The problem in retirement we rarely discuss [what to do with stock funds]
Replies: 58
Views: 5657

Re: The problem in retirement we rarely discuss [what to do with stock funds]

It is entirely possible that the best solution is to continue to hold the investments and pass them on the heirs with basis step-up. If this is an investment that has been held for thirty years and will be passed on in short order any hypothetical damage that is done by high costs, etc. is long sinc...
by dbr
Fri Jun 21, 2019 8:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Inherited stocks/mutual funds and bump in cost basis.
Replies: 9
Views: 982

Re: Inherited stocks/mutual funds and bump in cost basis.

I would consult a tax accountant or estate attorney in your state to consider your specific situation. The answer is state dependent among other things.
by dbr
Fri Jun 21, 2019 8:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Behaviour once the game is won
Replies: 18
Views: 3103

Re: Behaviour once the game is won

Allocate future income to bonds only, no need to risk it... play safe Allocate future income to 100% EQ: this is 'surplus' income, not required in the FI plan, so can more afford to be risked Continue to allocate to maintain the 60/40 asset split: a compromise? The answer to questions like this is ...
by dbr
Fri Jun 21, 2019 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Increased equity versions of Swensen portfolio
Replies: 2
Views: 277

Re: Increased equity versions of Swensen portfolio

A possible way to get "experience" with alternatives is to compare results in Portfolio Visualizer. A warning is that back testing of that sort can be very dependent on time period observed and PV does not cover a very long period of time. I think 1985 is the earliest year for backtests. Others may ...
by dbr
Fri Jun 21, 2019 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The problem in retirement we rarely discuss [what to do with stock funds]
Replies: 58
Views: 5657

Re: The problem in retirement we rarely discuss [what to do with stock funds]

This question actually is posted on the forum with great frequency. One example of search results might be this: https://www.google.com/search?sitesearc ... ted+stocks
by dbr
Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate stock picking performance?
Replies: 34
Views: 1376

Re: How to calculate stock picking performance?

Thanks to all for the info on MS Money. I looked at it, and the main negative, for me, is you can't download balance/transactions from your broker. I've been looking for over 20 years for a decent tracking program and have found nothing yet. Back then I had a nice, simple program but the guy who de...