Search found 32465 matches

by dbr
Mon May 25, 2020 11:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dollar Cost Averaging - How long?
Replies: 14
Views: 1222

Re: Dollar Cost Averaging - How long?

I am curious how you heard about DCA and what you hope that tactic will do for you.

I think questions about DCA are really unresolved issues regarding asset allocation, but I could be wrong.
by dbr
Mon May 25, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS vs High Yield Savings
Replies: 4
Views: 593

Re: TIPS vs High Yield Savings

An alternative is I bonds, which are redeemable whenever you want after the first year. The interest earned is tax deferred. There is a problem that the annual purchase limit is too low for many situations but may be no problem for you. Lots of people would suggest I bonds for an emergency fund. TIP...
by dbr
Sun May 24, 2020 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Dilemma – Contradicting Historical Data
Replies: 18
Views: 1198

Re: Asset Allocation Dilemma – Contradicting Historical Data

Just to add to the chain of comments, need really means "what are your objectives" and ability relates to "what is your situation." But the important characteristic of both is that it takes the analysis back a step to consider the why's and wherefore's of who one is and what one is trying to do. I r...
by dbr
Sun May 24, 2020 7:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Dilemma – Contradicting Historical Data
Replies: 18
Views: 1198

Re: Asset Allocation Dilemma – Contradicting Historical Data

As also mentioned by a previous poster you don't say even once what you want. You get to choose among the options according to what you want to do. Do you want to try to grow more wealth at the cost of more uncertainty, including even a possibilities that you will have less wealth than a less aggres...
by dbr
Sat May 23, 2020 1:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ameriprise vs Vanguard PAS vs Three fund approach
Replies: 13
Views: 691

Re: Ameriprise vs Vanguard PAS vs Three fund approach

The OP has already passed the biggest hurdle to investing: Registering at bogleheads.org and starting a thread. Yes, and given that, the actual question is VPAS vs DIY from the start. I suggested the might be how much one just wants some actual structured advice and management to get started. VPAS ...
by dbr
Sat May 23, 2020 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New investor trying to understand tax loss harvesting
Replies: 5
Views: 272

Re: New investor trying to understand tax loss harvesting

You need to go through the capital gains reporting procedure on your tax return to see that the $200 gain will be offset by the $100 loss. But the tax forms do that in detail rather than just letting you decide for yourself what the net is. Look at Schedule D and the Qualified Dividends and Capital ...
by dbr
Sat May 23, 2020 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to expect from Stable Value funds (Yield) in the immediate future?
Replies: 7
Views: 709

Re: What to expect from Stable Value funds (Yield) in the immediate future?

As a generalization SV yield will slowly trail market yields both up and down. The time lag might be on the order of months to a year. Some funds may have their own individual properties. Another thing that might happen, which did in my 401k, is that the management committee dropped the SV fund and ...
by dbr
Sat May 23, 2020 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Strategy for investing a large sum
Replies: 5
Views: 634

Re: Strategy for investing a large sum

If you know what investments you want to be in there is no need for any special "strategy" for putting the money there. A question would be what reason there is for this investment to be considered separately from all your other investments. It is also not clear what you mean by capital preservation...
by dbr
Sat May 23, 2020 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Component of 3-fund portfolio
Replies: 4
Views: 504

Re: Bond Component of 3-fund portfolio

There are many possible choices for bond investments none of which are universally "better" than others. Total bond is the standard recommendation possibly in part because choosing that means the almost never productive discussion of all the alternatives never gets started. There is a tendency on th...
by dbr
Sat May 23, 2020 7:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ameriprise vs Vanguard PAS vs Three fund approach
Replies: 13
Views: 691

Re: Ameriprise vs Vanguard PAS vs Three fund approach

You are absolutely correct that Ameriprise will take away a lot of your money and you don't need to let that happen. They can also leave you with a complicated array of investments that will be hard to unwind later. They are salesmen, not advisors. Signing up with VPAS for a period of time and then ...
by dbr
Fri May 22, 2020 8:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is Chasing Yield Worth It? (Banks)
Replies: 15
Views: 1168

Re: Is Chasing Yield Worth It? (Banks)

You can answer this question yourself by calculating how many more dollars you will have in a year by finding this yield or that yield for your money along with evaluating what is involved to get that money. Some people would spend time and effort to gain $100/year (or whatever amount is available) ...
by dbr
Thu May 21, 2020 5:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax attorney weirdness
Replies: 40
Views: 3203

Re: Tax attorney weirdness

Did you ask your CPA how he might help you with tax planning? Granted a CPA often does not go beyond tax preparation but tax planning is done by CPA professionals as it might be done by the right financial planner. I think it might not be surprising that a tax attorney would not have much to do with...
by dbr
Wed May 20, 2020 7:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does portfolio size matter when considering Sequence of return risk?
Replies: 43
Views: 2438

Re: Does portfolio size matter when considering Sequence of return risk?

One standard and wise recommendation here on the Bogleheads is the so-called “three-fund portfolio”, whose most vocal advocate is Taylor Larimore, a 96-year old WW2 veteran who fought in the Battle of the Bulge. The three-fund portfolio suggests you allocate 33.3% to bonds, 33.3% to US stocks, and ...
by dbr
Tue May 19, 2020 6:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Turning 65, Medicaire questions
Replies: 68
Views: 4108

Re: Turning 65, Medicaire questions

FWIW be careful about supplemental insurance in the form of employer retiree health insurance. While you may not get messed up with the qualified plan thing those plans can disappear at almost no notice. My employer did that but we were wary enough not to go there in the first place.* On the other h...
by dbr
Tue May 19, 2020 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Math question about plotting rolling averages
Replies: 8
Views: 608

Re: Math question about plotting rolling averages

Excel allows a moving average fit on a plot in the trendline option. There are options for how many periods to average over. While you are there consider other types of fits for the purpose of smoothing the data. All such techniques are, as mentioned, approaches to removing the noise.
by dbr
Tue May 19, 2020 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Turning 65, Medicaire questions
Replies: 68
Views: 4108

Re: Turning 65, Medicaire questions

Just to be clear this is probably not a question about Medicare as in A, & B but rather about Medigap plans, the alternative Medicare Advantage Plans, best approach to drug plans (D, etc.) as well as dental and vision coverage. It is in these areas that sales pitches are being made, alternatives abo...
by dbr
Tue May 19, 2020 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone else have Vanguards Wellesley income fund
Replies: 22
Views: 2617

Re: Anyone else have Vanguards Wellesley income fund

I thought this was a fairly safe investment since its heavy in bonds It was fairly safe, relatively at least, in 2008-09. But this is a different war. With bonds today you can’t back test because going forward it seems like the hay day of bonds is over for a good while. The 10 year treasury is arou...
by dbr
Tue May 19, 2020 12:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking Advice on Allocation of Elderly Relative's Investment Portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 457

Re: Seeking Advice on Allocation of Elderly Relative's Investment Portfolio

To me, reducing the utility stock holding will probably have the biggest impact on reducing risk. The other thing that isn't clear to me is how much of the income that the portfolio is producing is actually needed on a monthly basis? Regards, I agree that might be the one adjustment to make. I also...
by dbr
Tue May 19, 2020 7:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking Advice on Allocation of Elderly Relative's Investment Portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 457

Re: Seeking Advice on Allocation of Elderly Relative's Investment Portfolio

This case would not appear to "need" anything done to meet the stated objectives.
by dbr
Mon May 18, 2020 10:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moving from Treasuries to CDs
Replies: 19
Views: 1200

Re: Moving from Treasuries to CDs

Have you looked into I Bonds? https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/I_savings_bonds I started shifting some of my fixed income that was in CDs into I Bonds this year. Yes it creates the complexity of an additional account (or 2 if you and your wife each get a Treasury Direct account), but instead of ladd...
by dbr
Mon May 18, 2020 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does portfolio size matter when considering Sequence of return risk?
Replies: 43
Views: 2438

Re: Does portfolio size matter when considering Sequence of return risk?

Let's make the question more concrete: Does your risk of running out of money due to a bad sequence of returns depend on your portfolio size? Yes, of course. The more money you have, the less likely it is to run out. This is true for all sources of risk. I think the OP has been imprecise between th...
by dbr
Mon May 18, 2020 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trouble adding funds to Vanguard account
Replies: 8
Views: 543

Re: Trouble adding funds to Vanguard account

Pull means you work in your Vanguard account and "pull" the money out of your bank. Push means you log in to your bank account and send ("push") the the money to Vanguard. I don't know what the actual problem is, but if you were in your Vanguard account and got the message there, I would call Vangua...
by dbr
Mon May 18, 2020 9:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moving from Treasuries to CDs
Replies: 19
Views: 1200

Re: Moving from Treasuries to CDs

CDs are fine if you want to invest the small amount of time and effort to place and maintain the deposits. When interest rates are low the difference of fractions of a percent seems more important than it really is. It does not solve the problem that savers are penalized when they have to accept th...
by dbr
Mon May 18, 2020 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moving from Treasuries to CDs
Replies: 19
Views: 1200

Re: Moving from Treasuries to CDs

CDs are fine if you want to invest the small amount of time and effort to place and maintain the deposits. When interest rates are low the difference of fractions of a percent seems more important than it really is. It does not solve the problem that savers are penalized when they have to accept the...
by dbr
Sun May 17, 2020 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement
Replies: 115
Views: 5841

Re: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement

If one wants to relate bad years to retire to bad returns in the stock market keep in mind that the worst past years to attempt a 4% withdrawal for 30 years from a 60/40 portfolio were: 1966 1969 1968 1965 1967 1906 1937 1973 1912 1964 The years 1928-1933 were 52nd, 19th, 28th, 56th, 102nd, and 99th...
by dbr
Sun May 17, 2020 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Change in Strategy on withdrawals?
Replies: 7
Views: 609

Re: Change in Strategy on withdrawals?

If you want to increase the chances for more wealth to be passed on to heirs then you would increase your allocation to stocks. This does not necessarily increase the risk that you will run out of money during retirement as long as your overall rate of spending is not too high. You don't say what t...
by dbr
Sun May 17, 2020 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement
Replies: 115
Views: 5841

Re: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement

2. Building up large cash reserve limits need for withdrawals during bad markets. What??!? Are you saying that you don't withdraw cash during bad markets? I can only imagine with this view there is a cash bucket that is not considered to be part of the portfolio. If you put that cash position back ...
by dbr
Sun May 17, 2020 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Change in Strategy on withdrawals?
Replies: 7
Views: 609

Re: Change in Strategy on withdrawals?

If you want to increase the chances for more wealth to be passed on to heirs then you would increase your allocation to stocks. This does not necessarily increase the risk that you will run out of money during retirement as long as your overall rate of spending is not too high. You don't say what th...
by dbr
Sun May 17, 2020 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement
Replies: 115
Views: 5841

Re: Appreciating the magnitude of Sequence of Returns immediately after retirement

The illustration of the effect is excellent. The description of the significance can be looked at differently. Bad sequence of returns is one of the reasons ex ante safe withdrawal rates are as low as they are. The other reason is that the average return for a given retirement may be historically lo...
by dbr
Sun May 17, 2020 8:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does Delaying Social Security Deliver an 8% Return?
Replies: 92
Views: 7425

Re: Does Delaying Social Security Deliver an 8% Return?

Rather than characterizing SS timing as having a return one might better say that delaying SS is an opportunity to manage longevity risk by buying an exceptionally effective inflation indexed annuity at age 70. Not only that, SS is the only inflation indexed annuity payment that is available to anyo...
by dbr
Sat May 16, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Planning Today’s $ or Future $?
Replies: 18
Views: 916

Re: Retirement Planning Today’s $ or Future $?

That 3% guarantee is in nominal dollars. The return guarantee is not for 3% plus inflation. Right when I calculate my accumulation @ 3% guaranteed I come up with $617k in 14 years from now along with current contributions and employer contributions. I know it’s very conservative but gives me a pred...
by dbr
Sat May 16, 2020 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does portfolio size matter when considering Sequence of return risk?
Replies: 43
Views: 2438

Re: Does portfolio size matter when considering Sequence of return risk?

I was thinking of going higher (75/25) based on this post [https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=314622&newpost=5255144] and others like it. The graphic shows a 100% success rate of 75/25 for 3.25% for 40 years (I don't think I will last longer than that). 65/35 is between the two v...
by dbr
Sat May 16, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Planning Today’s $ or Future $?
Replies: 18
Views: 916

Re: Retirement Planning Today’s $ or Future $?

That 3% guarantee is in nominal dollars. The return guarantee is not for 3% plus inflation.
by dbr
Sat May 16, 2020 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does portfolio size matter when considering Sequence of return risk?
Replies: 43
Views: 2438

Re: Does portfolio size matter when considering Sequence of return risk?

[ dbr, the current inputs are 4.5% growth over the next 9-10 years, a 3.25% SWR* (adjusted if needed), tax rate of 28% and an end AA of 65/35 with my contributions getting me there over the next 4 years. [/quote] It doesn't matter what growth you get as long as you live with the 3% plan. You will f...
by dbr
Sat May 16, 2020 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Annuity and 3-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1050

Re: Annuity and 3-Fund Portfolio

It is almost impossible that any annuity other than a single premium immediate fixed annuity not bought until well into retirement is going to make any sense. There are special cases involving tax issues that might be exceptions.
by dbr
Sat May 16, 2020 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does portfolio size matter when considering Sequence of return risk?
Replies: 43
Views: 2438

Re: Does portfolio size matter when considering Sequence of return risk?

I was thinking of going higher (75/25) based on this post [https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=314622&newpost=5255144] and others like it. The graphic shows a 100% success rate of 75/25 for 3.25% for 40 years (I don't think I will last longer than that). 65/35 is between the two v...
by dbr
Sat May 16, 2020 9:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Planning Today’s $ or Future $?
Replies: 18
Views: 916

Re: Retirement Planning Today’s $ or Future $?

Most people like to calculate the future in real (after inflation) dollars. But in reality between things that are inflation indexed such as social security and trying to estimate real returns for investments and things that are fixed in nominal dollars, such as a fixed pension or fixed annuity, it ...
by dbr
Sat May 16, 2020 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: A very simple situation but help is needed [How should I invest my 150k?]
Replies: 19
Views: 1624

Re: A very simple situation but help is needed

Your asset allocation should be designed for all your long term investments as a whole and then things located in different types of accounts for best tax efficiency. An exception to that is that if you hold an emergency fund in cash or other short term fixed income assets in your taxable accounts, ...
by dbr
Sat May 16, 2020 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does portfolio size matter when considering Sequence of return risk?
Replies: 43
Views: 2438

Re: Does portfolio size matter when considering Sequence of return risk?

Keep in mind the biggest risk to a retirement is not the sequence of returns but the bad luck that the average return will be low. There is nothing that can be done about that except to be prepared and adjust.* You can't asset allocate your way out of that and trying to predict the average return fo...
by dbr
Sat May 16, 2020 8:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does portfolio size matter when considering Sequence of return risk?
Replies: 43
Views: 2438

Re: Does portfolio size matter when considering Sequence of return risk?

You might Google for Wade Pfau's paper that talks about the bond tent, read it, and decide what you think the advice should be for your case. The only way to estimate the prospects for your particular situation is to attempt to model the outcome. I am afraid I am not sure what model to use that allo...
by dbr
Fri May 15, 2020 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Expected Return" ?
Replies: 44
Views: 2638

Re: "Expected Return" ?

It should be obvious that investors do indeed pick investments according to the return they expect to get (in some vague partly mathematical sense). What is the return you expect to get from US equities? What is the expected value of the probability distribution the return of US equities over the n...
by dbr
Fri May 15, 2020 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Expected Return" ?
Replies: 44
Views: 2638

Re: "Expected Return" ?

It should be obvious that investors do indeed pick investments according to the return they expect to get (in some vague partly mathematical sense). After all the idea that it matters how much one invests in stocks relative to bonds depends on the expectation that in fact "more" return will material...
by dbr
Fri May 15, 2020 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Expected Return" ?
Replies: 44
Views: 2638

Re: "Expected Return" ?

It may be that many investors can't or don't approach it quite as dispassionately as they should, but it seems to me the solution is to help them understand the realm in which they are participating rather than abandon the specificity that makes the realm understandable to begin with. I also am in ...
by dbr
Fri May 15, 2020 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Expected Return" ?
Replies: 44
Views: 2638

Re: "Expected Return" ?

Agreed. I think the issue is of common language vs. statistical terminology. When someone says "what can I expect to get from this investment?", it's not exactly clear what that means. For most people, they're not looking for the statistical expectation. And for many people, I suspect it's not even...
by dbr
Fri May 15, 2020 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Expected Return" ?
Replies: 44
Views: 2638

Re: "Expected Return" ?

2) On the mathematical description alone, "expected return" is clearly not the best way to base investment since, per above, a 3x leveraged ETF, especially extra leveraged through margin, will have an insanely high "expected return" - except the "return to expect" is you will go bust (or possibly b...
by dbr
Fri May 15, 2020 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Practicing diversification
Replies: 9
Views: 595

Re: Practicing diversification

What should I do? Hold, sell, or sell some amount of funds periodically? What do you want to do? -- hold significant money in a risky position meaning an opportunity for large gains or losses or not take that risk? You get to choose. The "should" part is that the risk taken in holding a single stoc...
by dbr
Fri May 15, 2020 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should stocks/bonds mix be based on goals, risk tolerance, or maximizing return?
Replies: 11
Views: 771

Re: Should stocks/bonds mix be based on goals, risk tolerance, or maximizing return?

1. Asset Allocation based on Goals : 2. Based on Risk Tolerance : 3. Based on Maximizing Returns : 3. is also a goal, so you have really reduced the question to two things, goals and risk tolerance. I suggest reading what Larry Swedroe has written about need, ability, and willingness to take risk.
by dbr
Fri May 15, 2020 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dental estimate for a gold crown
Replies: 28
Views: 1965

Re: Dental estimate for a gold crown

I can't give medical/dental advice but I can tell you that dental costs of that magnitude including your insurance are par for the course as time goes by and damage sets in. Retirement planning should make allowance for some thousands here and there for dental issues. Getting to the tens of thousand...
by dbr
Fri May 15, 2020 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Expected Return" ?
Replies: 44
Views: 2638

Re: "Expected Return" ?

Bogleheads: In a recent post the writer talked about " expected return ." If true, using funds with the highest "expected returns" should make investing easy. Others must feel the same because Google has received 261,000,000 posts asking for the " Expected Return Formula ." It is calculated by mult...
by dbr
Thu May 14, 2020 11:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Reducing Cash Drag and Understanding Risks of Bonds
Replies: 4
Views: 680

Re: Reducing Cash Drag and Understanding Risks of Bonds

Am I hurting myself that much with this cash drag or is this negligible? Welcome to the forum. To me, cash is part of your fixed income. Fixed income includes bonds and cash in my portfolio. Yes, relative to stocks bonds and cash are more or less the same thing. Cash drag mainly refers to stock fun...