Search found 28816 matches

by dbr
Sun May 19, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: why buy any bonds in your portfolio?
Replies: 6
Views: 253

Re: why buy any bonds in your portfolio?

As part of a portfolio of low and high risk investments a person might well not buy bonds for the "bonds" aka "fixed income" part of the portfolio. On the other hand it works very well to just put that allocation in any diverse, low cost bond fund and let it run. If you are investing for a specific ...
by dbr
Sun May 19, 2019 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 137
Views: 13750

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

To keep all this in context, Bogle was investing for the Blair Academy Scholarship Fund and his allocation was 45% Wellington, 45% Balanced Index, 5% Emerging Markets Index, and 5% Gold. He said this represented about 62% stocks and he liked that the managers at Wellington could make changes as the...
by dbr
Sun May 19, 2019 9:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Seeking comment on proposed revisions to Marginal Tax Rate and Traditional v. Roth wiki articles
Replies: 28
Views: 1378

Re: Seeking comment on proposed revisions to Marginal Tax Rate and Traditional v. Roth wiki articles

OK, also, isn't the discussion about Trad vs Roth a discussion of tax cost rather than tax rate and the same comment as above applies. But I have always been an advocate of dummy tax computation to get costs rather than to use rates to estimate costs. Maybe that is too much work and people can ballp...
by dbr
Sun May 19, 2019 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Seeking comment on proposed revisions to Marginal Tax Rate and Traditional v. Roth wiki articles
Replies: 28
Views: 1378

Re: Seeking comment on proposed revisions to Marginal Tax Rate and Traditional v. Roth wiki articles

My comment about marginal tax rate is that it might be better to just advise people to calculate the actual difference in tax costs between two alternatives rather than taking the detour of computing a rate which is then used to estimate a cost that one already knows. The reason for this is that the...
by dbr
Sun May 19, 2019 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why should I employ an advisor?
Replies: 10
Views: 990

Re: Why should I employ an advisor?

One comment is that in a taxable portfolio investing in an array of funds you may not want to maintain in the future can be a trap because most likely there will be a tax cost to change that selection later on. That array of funds is probably not what most people here would advise or select even if ...
by dbr
Sat May 18, 2019 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual US stocks count as US equities in AA?
Replies: 4
Views: 233

Re: Individual US stocks count as US equities in AA?

Basically, yes. Technically a single stock is more risky for the same return compared to a diversified fund of stocks, so to a small extent it is not "safe." I don't think I would dwell on the difference, especially if you mean several stocks in that 10%. Note even the total market index is already ...
by dbr
Sat May 18, 2019 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 137
Views: 13750

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

To keep all this in context, Bogle was investing for the Blair Academy Scholarship Fund and his allocation was 45% Wellington, 45% Balanced Index, 5% Emerging Markets Index, and 5% Gold. He said this represented about 62% stocks and he liked that the managers at Wellington could make changes as the...
by dbr
Sat May 18, 2019 11:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gift for my neice
Replies: 5
Views: 551

Re: Gift for my neice

I'm not an expert on how best to gift to children, but what kind of account you use, 529/UTMA/etc., and what is in the account, mutual funds/CDs/etc. are two different things. Vanguard funds could be a good gift for a child. A straightforward, unencumbered, gift to a minor would be done under UTMA/U...
by dbr
Sat May 18, 2019 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?
Replies: 28
Views: 1940

Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

You are focusing on only NAV price. There is more to it. You need to look at compound growth with dividends and capital gains reinvestment. Thanks! As I said I'm very new and trusted the 3 fund idea (via Schwab ETFS) but trying to learn as much as possible. Okay so focusing on NAV was my problem. I...
by dbr
Sat May 18, 2019 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?
Replies: 28
Views: 1940

Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

The general result in investing in something with a positive expected return and high variability of return is that the wealth accumulated over time will be a distribution that tends upward over time and also spreads out over time. In other words the uncertainty of results becomes greater and greate...
by dbr
Sat May 18, 2019 9:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home Purchase estate plan
Replies: 7
Views: 426

Re: Home Purchase estate plan

Given you already have trusts in place these sound like perfect questions for the attorney who wrote your trusts.
by dbr
Sat May 18, 2019 9:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Frustration dealing with contractors....am I doing something wrong?
Replies: 24
Views: 2107

Re: Frustration dealing with contractors....am I doing something wrong?

In my community (a large metro area) there have always been plenty of responsive contractors for landscaping, tree work, painting, plumbing, electrical, concrete, and home remodeling. These range from individuals to small businesses to somewhat larger businesses or even "big-box" contractors. Eviden...
by dbr
Sat May 18, 2019 8:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ira transfer to Vanguard
Replies: 13
Views: 1088

Re: Ira transfer to Vanguard

Hello, I have a traditional IRA at td Ameritrade that I would like to transfer over to vanguard. What is the process for this ? I called vanguard customer service and didn’t get much help. Will vanguard pay any fees for doing this ? Call again. The rollover process is some and they can do almost of...
by dbr
Sat May 18, 2019 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?
Replies: 28
Views: 1940

Re: I don't even know how to categorize this... help?

The simple answer is that any particular portfolio of stocks can have low returns for an extended period of time, meaning a decade or even decades. That is what risk means. Someone may have some good illustrations of that somewhere.
by dbr
Sat May 18, 2019 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 137
Views: 13750

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

Gold as catastrophe insurance seems very different from gold as part of an asset allocation. For catastrophe insurance, why would it matter what percentage of your wealth it was? If your nest egg was small, 5% in gold won't matter. If it was very large, 5% in gold might be more of a liability than ...
by dbr
Sat May 18, 2019 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance
Replies: 34
Views: 2114

Re: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance

I think people do overestimate their risk tolerance until they have had the experience. I also think some people react to the above mentioned "echo chamber" effect and become too conservative. One possible bad result of 2008 is to leave the impression that a downturn will be quickly followed by a ra...
by dbr
Fri May 17, 2019 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument against Target Fund
Replies: 32
Views: 2417

Re: Argument against Target Fund

alexfoo39 wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 9:01 pm

you get it right. So assuming that one is in distribution stage and starts to draw his money off his portfolio. Does he need to keep a, say, 3-years cash expense as buffer? I heard that from sheepdog's thread.
I don't see the logic in that myself.
by dbr
Fri May 17, 2019 9:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why do plumbers get paid so well?
Replies: 84
Views: 6014

Re: Why do plumbers get paid so well?

FWIW here is some data on plumber wages. I would not say this is shabby, but it is certainly not "so well" as you think. There is a big difference between what you pay a plumbing company for the work and what the plumber himself takes home. An independent owner of a plumbing company might do very we...
by dbr
Fri May 17, 2019 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Churning Credit Cards
Replies: 34
Views: 2267

Re: Churning Credit Cards

Churning credit cards, churning bank accounts, and churning brokerage accounts (although I haven’t delved into brokerage accounts yet) is incredibly lucrative. It’s also one of those things that you get out as much as you put in. While I agree with many of the above posters that much of the real ea...
by dbr
Fri May 17, 2019 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument against Target Fund
Replies: 32
Views: 2417

Re: Argument against Target Fund

Aren't we supposed to start be real conservative with the money we plan to use +-5 years? Not sure I have your meaning exactly, but a retirement portfolio might be "used" gradually over as long as 30 years, give or take, from retiring, and some people would be invested for legacies as well. So, no,...
by dbr
Fri May 17, 2019 5:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help my broker is trying to freak me out
Replies: 70
Views: 9282

Re: Help my broker is trying to freak me out

ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 5:07 pm
Do most people actually pay somebody to manage their finances? Nearly everyone I know rolls their own. It would surprise me if most people pay somebody.
I know lots of people who mention "my/our financial advisor." I just lays low and says nuthin.
by dbr
Fri May 17, 2019 5:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Churning Credit Cards
Replies: 34
Views: 2267

Re: Churning Credit Cards

It's a hobby. If you want a paycheck in $/hr this is probably not where to find it. CC companies have shut down most of the opportunity that existed a few years ago. Points/miles once acquired are an art and science to redeem. I grew up in an airline family and kind of enjoy messing around with some...
by dbr
Fri May 17, 2019 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to deploy $450,000 of IRA money right now
Replies: 30
Views: 1873

Re: Best way to deploy $450,000 of IRA money right now

Still waiting for answer from OP on how the entire $450k came to be in cash. Was it always in cash? No, it was not always in cash. It was previously in their employer's 401k plans. They both just recently retired and rolled everything into a Rollover IRA. Before, the money was automatically taken o...
by dbr
Fri May 17, 2019 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to deploy $450,000 of IRA money right now
Replies: 30
Views: 1873

Re: Best way to deploy $450,000 of IRA money right now

What have they historically done with that $450K IRA? Kept it in cash? Why suddenly the desire to deploy now? After they both recently retired from their jobs, the husband and wife rolled over everything from their employer's 401k to a Rollover IRA. So right now, everything is just sitting in a cas...
by dbr
Fri May 17, 2019 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment return assumptions for periodic contribution plans
Replies: 5
Views: 270

Re: Investment return assumptions for periodic contribution plans

No, you should run one or more of the statistically formulated retirement models to also get a view of the range of possible outcomes. One cannot expect to get the expected return even if you know what to expect for the expected return. In other words all investments become riskier with time using a...
by dbr
Fri May 17, 2019 12:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to deploy $450,000 of IRA money right now
Replies: 30
Views: 1873

Re: Best way to deploy $450,000 of IRA money right now

The first comment is that they are only deploying 40% of that money into the (stock) market. So "afraid to deploy all $450,000" does not apply. If this fact were pointed out, would their feelings be different? For purposes of portfolio asset allocation cash is bonds, so the plan could be to leave th...
by dbr
Fri May 17, 2019 9:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bigger car, less economical but more safe.. Get used to smaller car over time?
Replies: 70
Views: 3805

Re: Bigger car, less economical but more safe.. Get used to smaller car over time?

In any case the largest single variables affecting risk in auto accidents are driver behavior*, which is under your control, and exposure in miles in a vehicle per year, which is also under a person's control to a degree. *alcohol/drug use, distracted driving, fatigue, reckless driving, inattention...
by dbr
Fri May 17, 2019 9:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bigger car, less economical but more safe.. Get used to smaller car over time?
Replies: 70
Views: 3805

Re: Bigger car, less economical but more safe.. Get used to smaller car over time?

In any case the largest single variables affecting risk in auto accidents are driver behavior*, which is under your control, and exposure in miles in a vehicle per year, which is also under a person's control to a degree. *alcohol/drug use, distracted driving, fatigue, reckless driving, inattention ...
by dbr
Fri May 17, 2019 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?
Replies: 72
Views: 6643

Re: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?

*Note that the standard of financial academics has always been that the optimum use of money in retirement is to convert everything to an annuity at retirement, but that idea doesn't get much practical traction around here. To get to such a conclusion, academics probably model the future needs of r...
by dbr
Fri May 17, 2019 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bigger car, less economical but more safe.. Get used to smaller car over time?
Replies: 70
Views: 3805

Re: Bigger car, less economical but more safe.. Get used to smaller car over time?

I went to CSUV over sedan because current design sedans are too hard to see out of and too hard to enter/exit. An additional benefit is higher clearance helpful when the snow gets deeper. Fuel economy is of no consequence as our annual mileage is too low for an effect. The weight effect on risk of d...
by dbr
Fri May 17, 2019 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paraklete Financial
Replies: 4
Views: 613

Re: Paraklete Financial

Did you read their ADV? How much do you think you can afford to spend for advice?
by dbr
Fri May 17, 2019 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?
Replies: 72
Views: 6643

Re: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?

Hi all. I love William Bernstein’s quote “ If you’ve won the game, stop playing .” But here is the issue: My grandmother has held seceral sector funds at Vanguard for decades (Healthcare, etc.) She has done extraordinarily well over many many years. (She has a very low portion in bonds. She is prob...
by dbr
Fri May 17, 2019 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument against Target Fund
Replies: 32
Views: 2417

Re: Argument against Target Fund

Let's say we have a 2040 target fund. What happens if a 50%+ decline event happened in 2039? That a TR fund contains stocks is not an argument against target date funds. I'm curious what you really want to know. Some of the features of TR funds that might be undesirable to some investors, and possi...
by dbr
Fri May 17, 2019 7:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What "other" tax advantaged accounts should one know about?
Replies: 7
Views: 1474

Re: What "other" tax advantaged accounts should one know about?

I bond interest is tax deferred for thirty years.
by dbr
Fri May 17, 2019 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds beyond Total Bond Market - Anyone ?
Replies: 47
Views: 3310

Re: Bonds beyond Total Bond Market - Anyone ?

Well, a person who holds only Treasuries holds less than TBM rather than beyond TBM.

Seriously, almost everything about bonds is a difference without a distinction.
by dbr
Fri May 17, 2019 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?
Replies: 72
Views: 6643

Re: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?

I think the criticism of “stop playing” is that Bernstein has at times advocated an inflation protected lability matched portfolio as the standard for exiting the game. Especially in the current interest rate environment that’s really expensive and were you to amass that much wealth relative to you...
by dbr
Thu May 16, 2019 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does stock allocation truly matter?
Replies: 50
Views: 3751

Re: Does stock allocation truly matter?

I am wondering now if the question was about stock/fixed income allocation or about allocation within whatever proportion of stocks one hold, whether by that we mean US/Intl or tilting to small and value or buying dividend stocks, or whatever it is?
by dbr
Thu May 16, 2019 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?
Replies: 72
Views: 6643

Re: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?

I guess if you define "game" narrowly as holding high risk equities, then i guess this interpretation makes sense. I view the "game" in a much broader sense of managing a portfolio through various stages of life. You may shift strategies, de-risk your holdings, etc. But, in my view, the "game" neve...
by dbr
Thu May 16, 2019 8:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Feedback on Roll-over Proposals
Replies: 7
Views: 418

Re: Feedback on Roll-over Proposals

Whatever the answer to the tax question, I do not believe this is disinterested advice. You might test her by explaining that you have opened IRAs at Vanguard and are going to follow the advice by putting the money there. Generally there is no overwhelming reason to rollover a good 401k plan. Did sh...
by dbr
Thu May 16, 2019 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?
Replies: 72
Views: 6643

Re: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?

It's a nice pithy quote, but I don't think it really has any useful meaning. What "game" are you supposed to stop playing? Life still happens. A lot of people interpret this to mean "lower your exposure to equity risks", but then you are just taking on different kinds of risk, inflation being a sig...
by dbr
Thu May 16, 2019 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?
Replies: 72
Views: 6643

Re: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?

Her preference is to continue holding these funds forever, and then give them to the family when she passes. As beneficiaries, there will be no tax consequence (correct?) Well, we constantly talk about the supposed tax efficiency of equities in taxable accounts and one potentially big factor in tha...
by dbr
Thu May 16, 2019 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does stock allocation truly matter?
Replies: 50
Views: 3751

Re: Does stock allocation truly matter?

If a person would like to contemplate some real world experience regarding both savings rate and asset allocation then fire up FireCalc in the not yet retired mode where there are contributions and not withdrawals and attend to the chart of all the portfolio outcomes any particular regimen can have ...
by dbr
Thu May 16, 2019 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you treat I Bonds in AA?
Replies: 7
Views: 687

Re: How do you treat I Bonds in AA?

I’m not a big earner :( so I have around $20k to invest annually for taxable My AA for taxable is 40% MM / Short term Treasuries, 30% Bond funds and 30% Stock funds I like the idea of I Nonds after reading few threads here but $10k is too much for me so $5k annually is my goal Definitely it’s not a...
by dbr
Thu May 16, 2019 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?
Replies: 72
Views: 6643

Re: We’ve won the game...but how do we stop playing?

Aside from one attempt to actually answer the question (and I don't know enough about derivatives to comment) one of the rules of the game is that you have to pay to get out. But knowing that when you started, I don't see a problem with that. The more you have to pay the bigger you won. I don't have...
by dbr
Thu May 16, 2019 8:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Income and Medicaid Eligibility - Planning Question
Replies: 21
Views: 1179

Re: Social Security Income and Medicaid Eligibility - Planning Question

I want to back up here..... What are the circumstances that have led this elderly couple to become so impoverished that they have only SS and are reliant on living with a relative (that will get old really fast)? I would look into if they are eligible for low income housing if they are independent ...
by dbr
Thu May 16, 2019 8:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reservations about job offer
Replies: 65
Views: 4005

Re: Reservations about job offer

I might be in the minority here, for better or for worse I have grown to not pay much attention to job titles. There's just so much variability as to when a VP is a "real" VP; the difference between a sales engineer and solution architect and so on... I look at three things: a) money / benefits pac...
by dbr
Thu May 16, 2019 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected return of a bond fund
Replies: 27
Views: 2592

Re: Expected return of a bond fund

Assuming the yield curve almost always has a positive slope the important point is that expected return is probably a bit greater than SEC.

Thanks, I have often wondered about this.
by dbr
Thu May 16, 2019 8:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Income stream post retirement.
Replies: 35
Views: 3155

Re: Income stream post retirement.

The divide is between how much of monthly income is delivered by Social Security and pension payments and how much has to be supported by withdrawals from investments. There would be no sense in buying an annuity simply to engineer the mechanics of withdrawing money with the exception of people who ...
by dbr
Thu May 16, 2019 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Income and Medicaid Eligibility - Planning Question
Replies: 21
Views: 1179

Re: Social Security Income and Medicaid Eligibility - Planning Question

If Medicaid income is determined by a 1040 tax return (not sure, but a good guess), SS may or may not show up on income at all or very little of it might be there. I think you need a tax estimator or tax program to try out the numbers. That’s not how it works. You fill out forms stating your income...
by dbr
Thu May 16, 2019 8:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reservations about job offer
Replies: 65
Views: 4005

Re: Reservations about job offer

You already know you can't trust your prospective boss.