Search found 4041 matches

by David Jay
Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?
Replies: 25
Views: 2017

Re: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?

Rus - If indexing becomes so popular that it interferes with price discovery to such an extent that the impact becomes exploitable , I will be among first to exploit it. Thus, the issue is self-resolving. How will you know? Genuine question. Performance chase active funds that start doing amazingly...
by David Jay
Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 55+ Early retirement offer.
Replies: 60
Views: 7800

Re: 55+ Early retirement offer.

There you go! If it's me, I am on this like flies on sugar.

You are a couple of months younger than me, I expect to work another year. The reality is starting to get to me as well.
by David Jay
Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is a Reasonable Retirement Cost of Living?
Replies: 24
Views: 1927

Re: What is a Reasonable Retirement Cost of Living?

My quick-and-dirty calculation is current take-home , minus mortgage , plus health care . All the kids are out of college, so there are no offsets there. I think this is a comfortable number as we have nearly a thousand a month going into our checking account (above fixed expenses) that we spend as ...
by David Jay
Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 177
Views: 4300

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

whiteprius wrote:
Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:32 pm
David Jay wrote:
Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:28 pm

You say that but I am pretty confident that you still don't get it. YOU are the amateur here. Some professional trader on Wall Street was willing to sell you those shares.
By that logic no one should ever buy shares.
Correct. No amateur should ever day trade on margin.
by David Jay
Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax planning: Convert Roth or zero tax due?
Replies: 7
Views: 366

Re: Tax planning: Convert Roth or zero tax due?

I understand the allure of feelings, "no taxes" would feel good. I am also looking at paying zero taxes in retirement but that leaves a bunch of tax-deferred funds in a tIRA that will be taxable for my wife (with her reduced standard deduction of filing single after I am gone). The alternative is pa...
by David Jay
Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax planning: Convert Roth or zero tax due?
Replies: 7
Views: 366

Re: Tax planning: Convert Roth or zero tax due?

Do you want to go with Math or Feelings? That, detective, is the correct question.

Math: 19% is less than 25%
by David Jay
Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 177
Views: 4300

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

Everybody in the world expected the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ to go up today. With all due respect, who the hell do you think sold you 6-figure amounts of SPY then? Do you think it was a charitable donation to the whiteprius fund? SPY is not penny-wide on the bid/offer because the entire world is in agr...
by David Jay
Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?
Replies: 25
Views: 2017

Re: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?

garlandwhizzer wrote:
Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:42 am
This fuel has always reliably produced billions in needless fees and expenses for the financial industry...
You mean like: "Where are the Customer's Yachts?", which was published in the 1940s?
by David Jay
Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Turning 50-plz check my portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 935

Re: Turning 50-plz check my portfolio

Yes, spending from cash in order to max-out tax advantaged is a great idea. Doesn't that mean you are double taxed? You already paid taxes on the cash in taxable and if you put it into a tax advantaged vehicle you will pay ordinary income tax on it again. You don't actually put the cash in the tax ...
by David Jay
Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reached 50X annual spending. Now what?
Replies: 42
Views: 3856

Re: Reached 50X annual spending. Now what?

Rick Ferri (wrote the book: "All About Asset Allocation") says that 30/70 is the "sweet spot" for retirees - low volatility with enough stocks for some growth.

At 50X, you can do anything you want. But if you don't know what to do, go with 30% equities.
by David Jay
Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?
Replies: 25
Views: 2017

Re: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?

Rus -

If indexing becomes so popular that it interferes with price discovery to such an extent that the impact becomes exploitable, I will be among first to exploit it. Thus, the issue is self-resolving.
by David Jay
Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Turning 50-plz check my portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 935

Re: Turning 50-plz check my portfolio

Looking good! Keep it up for another 10 years and you will be in the position of having so much that you have to figure out how to give away a bunch of money. I hope you have some cherished causes to support.

Yes, spending from cash in order to max-out tax advantaged is a great idea.
by David Jay
Wed Dec 13, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Edward Jones Guided Solutions - Spouse is Employee
Replies: 37
Views: 2452

Re: Edward Jones Guided Solutions - Spouse is Employee

Based on previous threads, I don't believe that EJ will be interested in working with you on this situation. Every job is the totality of pay, situation (work schedule, commuting distance, COL...), benefits, and restrictions. Between the two of you, you need to look at the totality of your financial...
by David Jay
Wed Dec 13, 2017 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much did you contribute to your 401k in 2017?
Replies: 89
Views: 4355

Re: How much did you contribute to your 401k in 2017?

Zero. I am putting all of my available cashflow into paying off my mortgage.

Age 61, expect to retire at age 62. Paid off mortgage will really help with expenses prior to SS
by David Jay
Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving from a CFP to ?
Replies: 4
Views: 346

Re: Moving from a CFP to ?

mhalley wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:24 pm
...put it in the lifestrategy moderate growth fund that is 60/40 and not pay any advisor fees.
^^^ This. (and spend $60 for Turbotax)
by David Jay
Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help - trying to find low cost advisers who will work with non U.S. residents
Replies: 9
Views: 433

Re: Help - trying to find low cost advisers who will work with non U.S. residents

I can't help you with with your specific issue. Most of us here at BH are do-it-yourself types. We would agree with you that third parties have "very limited value". But we would be glad to help you DIY through a low cost brokerage firm (I believe that Vanguard has Irish-domiciled funds, for instanc...
by David Jay
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)
Replies: 46
Views: 1966

Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Gold may be useful as a hedge against inflation, but over the past 215 years there are other financial instruments that have performed better: https://i.imgur.com/Lfz641C.png Source (page 6): https://www.cfasociety.org/sandiego/Linked%20Files/Presentations/WETF-Feb-2017-CFA.pdf The logarithmic scal...
by David Jay
Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard will use blockchain to share index data
Replies: 29
Views: 2680

Re: Vanguard will use blockchain to share index data

Yea, this makes sense. One could post anything on an open FTP server. Right out there in the open, with no passwords, no communication encryption or anything.

If you have the key, you can read it. Otherwise, not.
by David Jay
Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Almost fell off my chair...
Replies: 16
Views: 4162

Re: Almost fell off my chair...

Congratulations. If you hear about a market crash in the news at some point in the coming weeks/months/years - the best thing for you to do might be not to log in and look until things are on the way to recovery :) So true - in 2008 I stopped opening my quarterly 401K statements. I knew the market ...
by David Jay
Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Automated Market Timing
Replies: 66
Views: 3205

Re: Automated Market Timing

The appropriate way to have lower risk and a smoother ride is to set your equity allocation appropriately. That is a matter of opinion, not 'gospel'. Could you elaborate please? Having 50% bonds instead of 20% bonds would lead to a portfolio with much lower volatility and drawdowns. This is fact. H...
by David Jay
Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Automated Market Timing
Replies: 66
Views: 3205

Re: Automated Market Timing

I'm interested in a smoother ride including the lower returns . The problem is your suggested robo tactical allocation method is in fact market timing. The appropriate way to have lower risk and a smoother ride is to set your equity allocation appropriately. Not to attempt market timing. As Bogle h...
by David Jay
Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Automated Market Timing
Replies: 66
Views: 3205

Re: Automated Market Timing

Veiled: One of our BH board members, Nisiprius, has a great riff on the general topic of beating the market. It impacted me so much that I use a portion of it in my signature line, I hope it gets you thinking as well. The remainder of this post is a direct quote: In order to get the "risk premium" y...
by David Jay
Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Roth IRA contributor needing help
Replies: 5
Views: 352

Re: New Roth IRA contributor needing help

Thank you for the warm welcome guys! I took y'alls advice and put 100% in the Vanguard 2050. Also, I've seen where people split contributions between 401k and a Roth it's and was wondering what the benefit is of doing so. Is it due to only being able to put so much into the ira? As of now, it all g...
by David Jay
Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Done gone and did it [Retire]
Replies: 79
Views: 7264

Re: Done gone and did it [Retire]

Congrats! I have another year-plus before I am done...
by David Jay
Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Planning Advice
Replies: 5
Views: 570

Re: Investment Planning Advice

Welcome to the forum. The first thing you need to do is establish your desired asset allocation and then select funds to get you to that target. The use of both Wellesley and Wellington suggests to me that you are not doing this because they have almost inverse asset allocations: Wellesley - 35/65 (...
by David Jay
Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rolling over 401k to Vanguard IRA
Replies: 7
Views: 379

Re: Rolling over 401k to Vanguard IRA

I like mutual funds for rebalancing. You can move "dollars" from one fund to another, instead of purchasing in "share" amounts.

But as Nisiprius says: "It's the same beer. Mutual funds are beer in bottles, ETFs are beer in cans."
by David Jay
Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roger Ibbotson and ZebraEdge Annuity
Replies: 5
Views: 692

Re: Roger Ibbotson and ZebraEdge Annuity

What are the fees? What are the caps? What is the participation rate? What is the calculation schedule? How long is the withdrawal penalty period? I will quote Jane Bryant Quinn: "Quinn's First Law of Investing is never to buy anything whose price you can't follow in the newspapers. Even when the pr...
by David Jay
Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contribution to family member's IRA
Replies: 4
Views: 509

Re: Contribution to family member's IRA

Yeti wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:35 am
This is assuming the the recipient party has sufficient income for earned income requirements and that they won't be over contributing for the year.
Remember that a spouse's income can also be used to meet the earned income requirements.
by David Jay
Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stupid question about VTSAX
Replies: 6
Views: 1100

Re: Stupid question about VTSAX

Both sides of the replies are correct in their own way. 1. The mutual fund invests your money in actual stocks, so you hold real assets. These assets are held by a third party so in the event of a mutual fund company failure you can recover your assets. 2. They are allowed to do some "adjustments" a...
by David Jay
Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Snow Tires? Worth it?
Replies: 128
Views: 4753

Re: Snow Tires? Worth it?

Random question for the group. I currently have 4 wheel drive Honda CRV with all season tires. However, we just moved to a cold weather location with longer winters and I have a longer commute now than before. My questions: -Does anyone recommend snow tires, even if a 4 wheel drive care? I have a w...
by David Jay
Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 41
Views: 3346

Re: Small cap value vs. total market?

I don't think anyone will dispute that SCV has outperformed TSM over the last couple of decades. The real question is whether, due to publicity, it will continue to outperform in the future . Many outperforming "factors" have been identified, only to fade after they are identified and publicized. TS...
by David Jay
Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to Achieve CAGR of 6% in non-taxable Acct?
Replies: 10
Views: 997

Re: How to Achieve CAGR of 6% in non-taxable Acct?

If this is for discretionary spending and you can choose to spend less in down years, then you can look at various withdrawal strategies: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Withdrawal_methods One of these strategies is constant percentage withdrawal. You can withdraw, say, 5.5% of remaining portfolio b...
by David Jay
Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where might be car security system "secret" button?
Replies: 17
Views: 1557

Re: Where might be car security system "secret" button?

Purchasing a 2002 Camry.

A true Boglehead. :happy
by David Jay
Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Investor Need advice
Replies: 16
Views: 836

Re: New Investor Need advice

@David Jay Thanks for your feedback. I will look into Target funds but wanted to have more control on waht funds being selected. The target funds are fully diversified, holding US stocks, International Stocks and bonds, all inside one "wrapper" that is rebalanced to keep the allocation on the sched...
by David Jay
Sun Dec 10, 2017 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Investor Need advice
Replies: 16
Views: 836

Re: New Investor Need advice

I want to start funding my 401k right away. Should I go for specific funds or Index funds? One of the beauties of a 401K is that you are free to move allocation around over the years with no penalty. So you don't have to "decide forever" where to put your money. I would get the process started with...
by David Jay
Sat Dec 09, 2017 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSM vs High Dividend Yield if I never choose to sell?
Replies: 36
Views: 2279

Re: TSM vs High Dividend Yield if I never choose to sell?

Wouldnt my dividends be taxed at 15%? The same as LT capital gains? [edited] [Unqualified] dividends are taxed at your current marginal rate. Capital gains [and qualified dividends] receive special treatment. Additionally, you are taxed on dividends when they are distributed , whether or not you se...
by David Jay
Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSM vs High Dividend Yield if I never choose to sell?
Replies: 36
Views: 2279

Re: TSM vs High Dividend Yield if I never choose to sell?

1. If this is in taxable, taking your gains as dividends is not in your best interest. Capital gains are taxed at a lower rate and are delayed until time-of-sale. 2. TSM is far more diversified so it is likely to perform more consistently across a wide range of economic conditions. TSM has provided ...
by David Jay
Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I don't know how it happened! [starting new business soon, how to avoid 1% AUM cost]
Replies: 14
Views: 1212

Re: I don't know how it happened! [retiring soon, how to avoid 1% AUM cost]

livesoft wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:54 pm
David Jay wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:27 pm
If you are 55 (or older) when you leave your current company, you can access the 401K assets without penalty.
This 401(k) age-55 thing is very plan dependent. The OP's 401(k) may or may not allow what you wrote.
I stand corrected. It is allowed by regulation but review your specific plan.
by David Jay
Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I don't know how it happened! [starting new business soon, how to avoid 1% AUM cost]
Replies: 14
Views: 1212

Re: I don't know how it happened! [retiring soon, how to avoid 1% AUM cost]

If you are 55 (or older) when you leave your current company, you can access the 401K assets without penalty. You will have to wait until 59.5 to access the Roth or a rollover IRA without penalty (yea I know: 72t, but that's pretty restrictive). This needs to be thought through before you roll over ...
by David Jay
Fri Dec 08, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early Retirement Roth Conversion vs Healthcare Subsidies
Replies: 15
Views: 1145

Re: Early Retirement Roth Conversion vs Healthcare Subsidies

6 years in the future? I would monitor the situation for the next 5 years then come back and make a decision. Too many things can change. Agreed - all the variables needed to supply a valuable answer will change. I am 12-18 months from retirement and I don't know what my health care will look like ...
by David Jay
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do Bogleheads say when they don't want to spend money?
Replies: 103
Views: 5404

Re: What do Bogleheads say when they don't want to spend money?

I would have warned her that if she continued, then I would shut the door in her face. Then, if she continued, I would have shut the door in her face. That's what I wish I would've done... I should've warned her. Other than that, I've gotten over my guilt about the episode. When they keep going aft...
by David Jay
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Making Best Use of Being in 15% Income Tax Bracket This Year
Replies: 22
Views: 2925

Re: Making Best Use of Being in 15% Income Tax Bracket This Year

I have about $60k in my traditional IRA now. I could convert it to Roth and pay the ~$20k I'd owe in taxes if I cashed out some of my taxable investment account (incurring additional taxes). Is there a good reason to do that though? I only understand the basics of Backdoor Roths. This is not a "bac...
by David Jay
Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Making Best Use of Being in 15% Income Tax Bracket This Year
Replies: 22
Views: 2925

Re: Making Best Use of Being in 15% Income Tax Bracket This Year

DrGoogle2017 wrote:
Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:50 pm
Can you convert IRA to Roth Penalty free if you are younger than 59.5?
Yes
by David Jay
Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Making Best Use of Being in 15% Income Tax Bracket This Year
Replies: 22
Views: 2925

Re: Making Best Use of Being in 15% Income Tax Bracket This Year

I have about $60k in my traditional IRA now. I could convert it to Roth and pay the ~$20k I'd owe in taxes if I cashed out some of my taxable investment account (incurring additional taxes). Is there a good reason to do that though? I only understand the basics of Backdoor Roths. This is not a "bac...
by David Jay
Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6634

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

In another one of the many bitcoin threads on bogleheads right now, someone said his teenage kid was asking if he could buy bitcoin. I suspect that the bubble will be popping soon. If teenagers are buying, then anyone who wants bitcoin already has it. I would say when grandmas or grandpas start buy...
by David Jay
Thu Dec 07, 2017 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First post from this retiree with questions - my daughter sent me here!
Replies: 34
Views: 3842

Re: First post from this retiree with questions - my daughter sent me here!

I am wondering why it has not been suggested that OP do some TIRA-Roth conversions. I can see one concern would be the Social Security "cliff", not an area that I have paid much attention to and not sure if disability social security is affected in the same way. Otherwise might not such a move make...
by David Jay
Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unsolicited advice - 32 yo w/ 80% bonds, fixed income fund
Replies: 36
Views: 3118

Re: Unsolicited advice - 32 yo w/ 80% bonds, fixed income fund

Hugo9898 wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:02 am
...he had a prominent, well off family friend look at and state this is exactly what i do...
If the well off family friend is just about retirement age, a 20/80 portfolio might make sense...for the family friend.
by David Jay
Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you know you are FI? [Financially Independent]
Replies: 48
Views: 3819

Re: How do you know you are FI?

To rephrase what others have said, it depends entirely on your expenses. When you have a portfolio that is 25X - 30X your annual living expenses, you have achieved FI.
by David Jay
Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Want to sell my Bitcoin, but when?
Replies: 90
Views: 8360

Re: Want to sell my Bitcoin, but when?

Interesting. A young coworker of mine purchased $7k in Bitcoin in (I believe) 2014 and it is now worth close to $250k. As far as I know, he plans to let it ride . Gambling does, on occasion, pay off. A reminder that it hasn't paid off yet... It has for some - those who have sold recently. I was ref...
by David Jay
Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A " Bond Tent" During the "Retirement Red Zone?"
Replies: 52
Views: 4663

Re: A " Bond Tent" During the "Retirement Red Zone?"

I want a hyper-simple portfolio my wife could manage, using just a single balanced fund like either Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Admiral Shares (VBIAX) or Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth (VSMGX). My "after I am gone" letter to my wife suggests that she put everything in LifeStrategy Moderate ...