Search found 3659 matches

by David Jay
Fri Aug 18, 2017 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me rebalance to Lazy Funds
Replies: 4
Views: 495

Re: Help me rebalance to Lazy Funds

The predominant view here on BH is to NOT use recent past performance as a primary selection tool. Three years is too short an evaluation period. Different sectors run hot and cold, one sector may be out of favor for a decade or more. One way to picture this phenomenon is the Callen periodic table, ...
by David Jay
Fri Aug 18, 2017 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Active or Indexed for Optimal Risk Management
Replies: 16
Views: 847

Re: Active or Indexed for Optimal Risk Management

I don't know anybody who has said index funds are less risky... ... If you want to protect against downside, the modify your asset allocation to have less equities... This is the key. You adjust the percentage of stocks versus bonds to control risk. You can have a passive portfolio that is far safe...
by David Jay
Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Active or Indexed for Optimal Risk Management
Replies: 16
Views: 847

Re: Active or Indexed for Optimal Risk Management

“My presentation highlighted the cyclicality of stock market cycles and how the best managers capture the up and down cycles." And here is my reply, in a quote from John Bogle: “The idea that a bell rings to signal when investors should get into or out of the stock market is simply not credible. Af...
by David Jay
Thu Aug 17, 2017 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me rebalance to Lazy Funds
Replies: 4
Views: 495

Re: Help me rebalance to Lazy Funds

I understand a lot of your thinking: 50:50 US - Intl, Developed - Emerging. I don't know where you came up with Dividend Appreciation or Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt. Can you articulate why you are considering those two? My first response would be to stay with Total Bond and swap Dividend Appreci...
by David Jay
Thu Aug 17, 2017 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me rebalance to Lazy Funds
Replies: 4
Views: 495

Re: Help me rebalance to Lazy Funds

You will want to give fund names when you post - there are at least (4) different Vanguard Total Stock funds/ETFs for instance - VTI, VTSMX, VTSAX, VITSX. Those who are using Mutual Funds may not recognize your ETF designations (I had to look up VWO and VIG) so you will get the best feedback from th...
by David Jay
Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation for 82 yr old widow in TN
Replies: 20
Views: 1323

Re: Asset Allocation for 82 yr old widow in TN

1. With such a low withdrawal rate, "any" allocation will work. Rick Ferri suggests that 30% stocks is the "sweet spot" for retirees, some market participation for inflation protection and a lot of safety in bonds. 2. Tax exempt bonds don't make sense for someone in the 15% tax bracket and are margi...
by David Jay
Thu Aug 17, 2017 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fundrise - Accredited Investor REIT
Replies: 12
Views: 1843

Re: Fundrise - Accredited Investor REIT

999:

Did you read the entire text of the FINRA notice (link in the second post on this thread)? And you still want to put your money there???
by David Jay
Thu Aug 17, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ - ... Stop Index Trackers [from] Eating the Economy
Replies: 23
Views: 2874

Re: WSJ - ... Stop Index Trackers [from] Eating the Economy

In the U.S., that is true, with credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service calculating that 29% of assets under management in the U.S. are now passive . But the share is rising rapidly: Moody’s reckons that index funds will take a majority of the market by 2024. Holdings do not determine prices...
by David Jay
Thu Aug 17, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Backdoor Roth or am I stuck
Replies: 13
Views: 491

Re: Backdoor Roth or am I stuck

If I wanted to do non-deductible IRA contributions now between 52-60 and then convert to Roth via backdoor, what impact does my current situation pose ? Gross Income is $200K Assuming your taxable income (I don't know the amount of your deductions) is above the phaseout for a standard Roth, you are...
by David Jay
Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable Annuities for 62 Y/O
Replies: 14
Views: 996

Re: Variable Annuities for 62 Y/O

Don't even consider a variable annuity. Wow! Thank you all so much for the advice! iceport: I just purchased the audiobook version of How to Make Your Money Last . Looking forward to diving in. Thank you. If you want to shop for a low fee immediate annuity, see this website --www.immediateannuities...
by David Jay
Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Holding VTSAX / S&P 500 fund exclusively
Replies: 11
Views: 1323

Re: Holding VTSAX / S&P 500 fund exclusively

White Coat Investor has a post entitled "150 Portfolios that are better than yours".

Check out portfolios #1, #2 and #3 here: https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/150-p ... han-yours/
by David Jay
Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable Annuities for 62 Y/O
Replies: 14
Views: 996

Re: Variable Annuities for 62 Y/O

No no no no no.

Do not invest in a variable annuity unless you completely understand every fee, formula and limitation in the entire 90-100 page prospectus and can (as Jane Quinn Bryant would say) "explain it to a 12 year old".
by David Jay
Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we (passive index investors) invest at market weight?
Replies: 34
Views: 2222

Re: Why do we (passive index investors) invest at market weight?

Instead of searching for the needle in the haystack... Own the haystack (that's Bogle).

Cap weighting is the haystack - it is owning the market in its current percentages.

Any other weighting / selection criteria is claiming that you know more than the person on the other side of the trade.
by David Jay
Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dumb, basic question about market-cap weighted funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 1829

Re: Dumb, basic question about market-cap weighted funds?

Humility is part of the evaluation. The guy on the other side of every one of my trades is a Wall Street MBA with a research department full of fresh grads, sitting in front of high powered computers that have fat pipes directly to the trading floor. What is my competitive advantage in this situatio...
by David Jay
Tue Aug 15, 2017 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dumb, basic question about market-cap weighted funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 1829

Re: Dumb, basic question about market-cap weighted funds?

I'm trying to wrap my head around the popularity of market-cap weighted funds... So did you get your questions answered? When holding a cap-weighted portfolio, there is no need to buy or sell. The market changes are reflected in the portfolio by definition. Cap weight is the simplest portfolio to m...
by David Jay
Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: US Social Security Income Benefit For Non-Citizen?
Replies: 11
Views: 1351

Re: US Social Security Income Benefit For Non-Citizen?

Lieutenant.Columbo wrote:
Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:13 pm
David Jay wrote:
Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:53 am
Lieutenant.Columbo wrote:
Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:04 pm
Citizen of Spain.
Interesting. I remembered that you're an ex-pat, but for some reason I thought you were Australian.
I guess my English accent is better than I thought :wink:
Fair dinkum, Mate!
by David Jay
Mon Aug 14, 2017 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's easy to have an investment plan until you get punched in the face
Replies: 53
Views: 6515

Re: It's easy to have an investment plan until you get punched in the face

Random Walker wrote:
Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:33 pm
I think this brings up the huge behavioral issues involved with asset allocation. An individual needs a strong intuitive belief in his AA to stick with it.
As I always say, you need to believe in your AA enough to convince yourself to stay the course in a downturn.
by David Jay
Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: US Social Security Income Benefit For Non-Citizen?
Replies: 11
Views: 1351

Re: US Social Security Income Benefit For Non-Citizen?

Lieutenant.Columbo wrote:
Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:04 pm
Citizen of Spain.
Interesting. I remembered that you're an ex-pat, but for some reason I thought you were Australian.
by David Jay
Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Building A Warchest
Replies: 32
Views: 3013

Re: Building A Warchest

WAYYY over-weight in GLD. Even the "all-seasons" portfolio (sort of the classic gold bug portfolio) is only 25% gold.

No equity whatsoever?

Interestingly, gold is not a great long-term inflation hedge. Equity is a better hedge. See Bernstein's "Deep Risk".
by David Jay
Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Changes, Need Help!
Replies: 14
Views: 728

Re: Portfolio Changes, Need Help!

25% tax rates If your marginal tax rate is 25%, then tax exempt really is not much of a benefit (you will earn more in a taxable bond fund, resulting in a similar return after taxes). For me, I would not build my portfolio around a tax-exempt fund, especially when that makes rebalancing a challenge.
by David Jay
Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Changes, Need Help!
Replies: 14
Views: 728

Re: Portfolio Changes, Need Help!

I like the concept at first glance.

As with the first reply, it would be helpful to know your tax rate (does tax exempt really make sense?) and 401K options.
by David Jay
Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Int'l Stock Index - how to track?
Replies: 15
Views: 1180

Re: Total Int'l Stock Index - how to track?

There is nothing wrong with trying to "buy low", but I have 2 comments. 1. If you are investing monthly, you need to benchmark the price monthly. What if the market was down 30% in the last 3 weeks but has rebounded 5% today? That is certainly "stocks on sale" territory - I would do a lot more than ...
by David Jay
Sun Aug 13, 2017 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Create a Mortgage Payoff Fund or Not?
Replies: 20
Views: 1366

Re: Create a Mortgage Payoff Fund or Not?

I would do it now. I am paid bi-weekly and I put my entire "3rd paycheck" on the mortgage twice a year.

If you say you want $100,000 in your emergency fund, then why keep $200,000 in your emergency fund? Seems like there is a bit of angst. Do you have any specific concerns about your income?
by David Jay
Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bernstein's Simpleton's Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 4239

Re: Bernstein's Simpleton's Portfolio

I favorably mention low-expense target date funds in If You Can. I don't recall specifically mentioning life strategy funds. The only difference is that with the former, you really don't have to pay too much attention as you age, since the fund automatically decreases equity allocation over the yea...
by David Jay
Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Experience with Modular/Manufactured Homes
Replies: 14
Views: 1471

Re: Experience with Modular/Manufactured Homes

Modular/Manufactured Homes Note, two very different things: "Manufactured Home" means a double-wide trailer. The trailer frame stays under the unit when the unit is placed on the lot. "Modular" means factory build using stick-built (or better) construction. They are designed to go on a foundation. ...
by David Jay
Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bernstein's Simpleton's Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 4239

Re: Need more information

stemikger wrote:
Sat Aug 12, 2017 7:33 am
Bernstein has often said, if you don't want to do the work, the Vanguard Life Strategy Funds are a good way to go.
Stemikger: Do you have a source for that? I would love to add that quote to my archive.
by David Jay
Fri Aug 11, 2017 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How far would you travel to see The Eclipse?
Replies: 153
Views: 7724

Re: How far would you travel to see The Eclipse?

I am driving about 4 hours, from an 80% coverage to full eclipse area.
by David Jay
Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bernstein's Simpleton's Portfolio
Replies: 40
Views: 4239

Re: Bernstein's Simpleton's Portfolio

That is a fine portfolio. Bonds are included for one reason - to even out the volatility of stocks. There are (2) tests for your asset allocation: 1. Can you sleep well at night? Peace of mind is priceless. 2. Can you "stay the course" in the event of a 40% turndown in the market? If you can sleep j...
by David Jay
Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Upper Middle" Class - ditch WLI or ride it?
Replies: 32
Views: 5531

Re: "Upper Middle" Class - ditch WLI or ride it?

if it took getting fleeced on a crappy product (WLI) to learn to be VERY discerning on every financial move I make regarding investments & insurance, so be it Around here, we call that "education tax". :( The goal is to front-load the education tax - like you. Unfortunately, more than a few of us d...
by David Jay
Fri Aug 11, 2017 11:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term tax planning
Replies: 11
Views: 897

Re: Long term tax planning

MiddleOfTheRoad wrote:But this is like an addictive interactive game at the moment :D
I really should get to bed - I just need to finish one more level...
by David Jay
Fri Aug 11, 2017 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: S&P Indexed Life Insurance
Replies: 10
Views: 679

Re: S&P Indexed Life Insurance

I love the assumed earnings of 6.17% (two digits after the decimal!). I would estimate no more than 6.13 :happy Can you post a link to the policy prospectuses (prospecti?) so we can look at them? Be advised that virtually all so called S&P indexed policies use the S&P 500 index as their baseline, wh...
by David Jay
Fri Aug 11, 2017 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long term tax planning
Replies: 11
Views: 897

Re: Long term tax planning

At your age (at any age, actually), there is a balance between thinking about the future and trying to get finite about the future - see the first quote in my signature. It is good that you are thinking about this, but I would not obsess on it. I am two years from retirement and the entire look of m...
by David Jay
Thu Aug 10, 2017 6:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much Roth conversion?
Replies: 14
Views: 1156

Re: How much Roth conversion?

Great that you have this year to do a tax-free Roth conversion. Sorry about the low income...

Here is a related thread, tax-free conversions for us older folks: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=224985
by David Jay
Wed Aug 09, 2017 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 1-Million Dollar Question [Investing during retirement, leave to heirs]
Replies: 33
Views: 4714

Re: The GOALS are...

Also, what do you mean by dividends being more expensive than capital growth in an IRA? For a given return, over the long term one will need a larger portfolio for a high-dividend-yield strategy. Not necessarily going to be the case in the future. Gill Tomorrow is not guaranteed, the Sun may go Sup...
by David Jay
Wed Aug 09, 2017 8:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 1-Million Dollar Question [Investing during retirement, leave to heirs]
Replies: 33
Views: 4714

Re: The GOALS are...

I want these funds to produce income... Why? It would help his kids, if the income of the portfolio would be given to us without tapping into the capital . So I'd like to build a portfolio that can exceed the RMD This is your root error. First, If the portfolio (inside an IRA, so there are no tax i...
by David Jay
Wed Aug 09, 2017 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 1-Million Dollar Question [Investing during retirement, leave to heirs]
Replies: 33
Views: 4714

Re: The GOALS are...

Gill wrote:It is not 5.3% in the first year.
Corrected above
Also, what do you mean by dividends being more expensive than capital growth in an IRA?
For a given return, over the long term one will need a larger portfolio for a high-dividend-yield strategy.
by David Jay
Wed Aug 09, 2017 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 1-Million Dollar Question [Investing during retirement, leave to heirs]
Replies: 33
Views: 4714

Re: The GOALS are...

I want these funds to produce income... Why? It would help his kids, if the income of the portfolio would be given to us without tapping into the capital . So I'd like to build a portfolio that can exceed the RMD This is your root error. First, If the portfolio (inside an IRA, so there are no tax i...
by David Jay
Wed Aug 09, 2017 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 1-Million Dollar Question [Investing during retirement, leave to heirs]
Replies: 33
Views: 4714

Re: The GOALS are...

aramv wrote:I want these funds to produce income...
Why?
by David Jay
Wed Aug 09, 2017 5:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I pay $6K in rent. Am I an idiot for not buying?
Replies: 50
Views: 6378

Re: I pay $6K in rent. Am I an idiot for not buying?

This in not necessarily a"bad" choice but it needs to be an informed choice. That choice needs to be backed up with the necessary savings level to support your retirement lifestyle without a paid-for home.

My retirement outlay would be 30-35% higher without a paid-for home.
by David Jay
Wed Aug 09, 2017 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New member and Qs about backdoor Roth
Replies: 3
Views: 457

Re: New member and Qs about backdoor Roth

Welcome!

Don't overlook the Wiki, lots of great information there. For example, here is the Wiki on backdoor Roth: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Backdoor_Roth_IRA
by David Jay
Wed Aug 09, 2017 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best worst and average 20 year gains for different allocations?
Replies: 2
Views: 390

Re: Best worst and average 20 year gains for different allocations?

CnC wrote:I have tried firecalc but as someone not near retirement it seems like it's results are an absolute crapshoot varying from +100 million to -1million by end of life.
I would suggest that this is reality. Nobody knows nuttin'
by David Jay
Tue Aug 08, 2017 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Contribute to Roth IRA on maternity leave
Replies: 2
Views: 290

Re: Contribute to Roth IRA on maternity leave

First reply is correct - to put numbers to it: If the couple (MFJ) has a total of $11,000 in earnings then both individuals can make the maximum contribution of $5500 each regardless of who has the earnings.
by David Jay
Mon Aug 07, 2017 10:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Expectations
Replies: 4
Views: 795

Re: Social Security Expectations

Create a "my social security" account at Social Security Administration and get a projection. If SO has more than 40 quarters of qualifying income then they get a benefit. It can be surprisingly large because the first $885 of average income is credited at 90% of wage inflation adjusted earnings. My...
by David Jay
Mon Aug 07, 2017 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3-year check-in with questions
Replies: 10
Views: 1335

Re: 3-year check-in with questions

texaspapas wrote:I just wonder if it's a good option given high tax liability currently.
Remember, you only have to pay taxes once on a Roth, from then on all of the gains compound tax free.

With a taxable account, you pay taxes on dividends and capital gains every year for the next 40 or 50 years.
by David Jay
Mon Aug 07, 2017 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3 years to go - ROTH now or ROTH Conversions later
Replies: 11
Views: 1186

Re: 3 years to go - ROTH now or ROTH Conversions later

I think you need to evaluate the amount in tax-deferred accounts and calculate future RMDs. I would stop converting when the future tax rate on the RMDs is lower than the cost to convert now. I do this in a spreadsheet, with one line per year. I picked an assumed gain each year for my retirement acc...
by David Jay
Mon Aug 07, 2017 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3-year check-in with questions
Replies: 10
Views: 1335

Re: 3-year check-in with questions

I would suggest that you look at a "back door Roth", it allows your to put $11,000 ($5500 each) into Roth accounts each year.

Here is the Wiki: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Backdoor_Roth_IRA

Search the forum for "backdoor Roth" and you will find many threads.
by David Jay
Mon Aug 07, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seems like both Stocks and bonds have equal risk now...
Replies: 26
Views: 3147

Re: Seems like both Stocks and bonds have equal risk now...

Since 1926, the worst year for a 100% stock portfolio was -43.1% (1931)
Since 1926, the worst year for a 100% bond portfolio was -8.1% (1969)

Doesn't look like equal risk to me...

Source: https://www.vanguard.com/us/insights/sa ... llocations
by David Jay
Mon Aug 07, 2017 9:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NWM insurance policy
Replies: 7
Views: 611

Re: NWM insurance policy

From a different point of view, at age 25 I purchased a whole-life policy paid up at age 55. During those thirty years I paid in a total of $4,161 and my death benefit now at age 80 is $46,387. I have two similar policies purchased at age 45 and paid up at age 55 with similar dollar amount benefits...
by David Jay
Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth investments
Replies: 5
Views: 616

Re: Roth investments

Welcome to the forum. A couple of thoughts: 1. Single-stock risk is "off the charts" high. You have 45% in 3 individual company stocks. I would read "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" first. If you want to make a "bet" on individual stocks, I would hold the total (all 3) under 10%. Your Roth space is ...