Search found 5559 matches

by David Jay
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Exempt Bond Funds - Intermediate, Long Term, High Yield
Replies: 12
Views: 936

Re: Tax Exempt Bond Funds - Intermediate, Long Term, High Yield

typical.investor wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:55 am
Interesting, but we are discussing very different cases.
I agree, I guess I was not clear.
by David Jay
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security [impact of earnings on benefits]
Replies: 28
Views: 2563

Re: Social Security [impact of earnings on benefits]

Thanks for the tax info. You have me thinking about delaying until 66 and 4 months , Not sure which way to go . Maybe delay a couple years and use 401k money . Im going to go down there and see what I will get at 64 Too hard to figure everything out . Do I use 401k money or cash in some funds and d...
by David Jay
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Exempt Bond Funds - Intermediate, Long Term, High Yield
Replies: 12
Views: 936

Re: Tax Exempt Bond Funds - Intermediate, Long Term, High Yield

Long term bond funds are generally discouraged here at BH. There as been a lot of discussions here but what I take from those discussions is that a bond fund is basically interest-rate agnostic (interest rate changes don’t matter) at 2x duration. LT bond funds may have durations of 15 - 20 years. 2...
by David Jay
Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "MegaMillions and Powerball jackpots combined are now $1B" - Good investment?
Replies: 55
Views: 2524

Re: "MegaMillions and Powerball jackpots combined are now $1B" - Good investment?

“Investment” You used that word twice. There is no “investment” here. There is an entertainment purchase. Perhaps you could even stretch the word “speculation” to cover this. But not investment. Expected return is zero. IIRC the expected return is about $.60 on the $1.00. So not a high return, or e...
by David Jay
Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Exempt Bond Funds - Intermediate, Long Term, High Yield
Replies: 12
Views: 936

Re: Tax Exempt Bond Funds - Intermediate, Long Term, High Yield

Long term bond funds are generally discouraged here at BH. There as been a lot of discussions here but what I take from those discussions is that a bond fund is basically interest-rate agnostic (interest rate changes don’t matter) at 2x duration. LT bond funds may have durations of 15 - 20 years. 2x...
by David Jay
Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 30 y/o Boglehead student, advice for 65 year old Retiring Father
Replies: 19
Views: 1684

Re: 30 y/o Boglehead student, advice for 65 year old Retiring Father

LS Conservative is a great choice. Only a 20% stock allocation, a 20% drop in the stock market is a 4% drop in asset value. OP, good advice. But, you might want to check Vanguard's web site. LS Conservative Growth may be 40% stocks. Or, maybe I'm reading it wrong. My mistake - LS Income was in my m...
by David Jay
Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "MegaMillions and Powerball jackpots combined are now $1B" - Good investment?
Replies: 55
Views: 2524

Re: "MegaMillions and Powerball jackpots combined are now $1B" - Good investment?

rasta wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:10 pm
David Jay wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:25 pm


Expected return is zero.
Math please.
I think what I wrote above is pretty good. If both the mode (most common value) is zero and the median (the central value) is zero then zero is a logical expectation.
by David Jay
Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 30 y/o Boglehead student, advice for 65 year old Retiring Father
Replies: 19
Views: 1684

Re: 30 y/o Boglehead student, advice for 65 year old Retiring Father

LS Conservative Income is a great choice if he is deathly afraid of the stock market. Only a 20% stock allocation, a 20% drop in the stock market is a 4% drop in asset value.
by David Jay
Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "MegaMillions and Powerball jackpots combined are now $1B" - Good investment?
Replies: 55
Views: 2524

Re: "MegaMillions and Powerball jackpots combined are now $1B" - Good investment?

“Investment” You used that word twice. There is no “investment” here. There is an entertainment purchase. Perhaps you could even stretch the word “speculation” to cover this. But not investment. Expected return is zero. IIRC the expected return is about $.60 on the $1.00 . So not a high return, or ...
by David Jay
Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "MegaMillions and Powerball jackpots combined are now $1B" - Good investment?
Replies: 55
Views: 2524

Re: "MegaMillions and Powerball jackpots combined are now $1B" - Good investment?

“Investment”

You used that word twice. There is no “investment” here. There is an entertainment purchase. Perhaps you could even stretch the word “speculation” to cover this.

But not investment. Expected return is zero.
by David Jay
Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security [impact of earnings on benefits]
Replies: 28
Views: 2563

Re: Social Security [impact of earnings on benefits]

$2850 is a pretty good PIA. What is your wifes' PIA? One important feature to understand is that the survivor (whichever one that is) gets to keep receiving the larger benefit of the two. It is often the case with married couples that the optimal scenario has the higher earner delaying filing (this ...
by David Jay
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feedback on Kai-Zen premium finance life insurance plan
Replies: 12
Views: 965

Re: Feedback on Kai-Zen premium finance life insurance plan

Sorry, that last reply was a bit snarky. But really, Universal Life??? 1. The cost if insurance goes up every year - you are basically have a guaranteed issue 1 year term policy underlying the investment. Through your 50s and 60s the insurance portion will climb exponentially. 2. Typical total ER (i...
by David Jay
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Snowbird- Tucson AZ
Replies: 21
Views: 3173

Re: New Snowbird- Tucson AZ

4nwestsaylng wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 12:04 am
What retirees at Quartzite don't realize is that they are very far away from good emergency medical care.
I guess we will have to get there while we are still young (retiring in 2019 @ age 62). I figure every serious RVer should do the Quartzite show at least once.
by David Jay
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feedback on Kai-Zen premium finance life insurance plan
Replies: 12
Views: 965

Re: Feedback on Kai-Zen premium finance life insurance plan

andy2012 wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:36 am
This product was bit different and cheaper so I thought maybe someone might have done it and will have more information.
I'm pretty sure no one here has "done it": Use leverage to purchase more Universal Life than you can afford.
by David Jay
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Market timing mistakes relative to joining BH Forum
Replies: 6
Views: 656

Re: Market timing mistakes relative to joining BH Forum

staythecourse wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:59 am
...it seemed common sense that you can't beat the market as a whole.
Genuine common sense is surprisingly uncommon.
by David Jay
Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $50,000: Should I buy now or wait for the market to drop further?
Replies: 39
Views: 5440

Re: $50,000: Should I buy now or wait for the market to drop further?

Hello all, Currently we have an AA of 90/10, with all of the bonds being in Wellington. The goal is going 80/20 or 70/30 in the next few years when we get closer to military retirement. We have just received $50,000. G Fund in TSP is a terrific bond option. If you cannot afford monthly deductions t...
by David Jay
Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Finally ready to start investing in RothIRA (23yrs old)
Replies: 8
Views: 456

Re: Finally ready to start investing in RothIRA (23yrs old)

In order to contribute to a Roth, you must have earned income (equal or greater than the amount of your contribution). Teaching assistants can be paid in different ways, make sure that your pay format meets the Roth income requirements. A few links (I searched on BH for "Roth teaching assistant"): h...
by David Jay
Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does Lifestrategy make sense in Roth IRA's
Replies: 20
Views: 2108

Re: Does Lifestrategy make sense in Roth IRA's

I am in the process of lining up accounts for retirement in January. I like LifeStrategy funds (like TargetDate, except they hold the asset allocation instead of having a glideslope) and I use LS Growth (80/20) for my Roth. I transferred $50,000 to a Short Term Bond fund so I have ready cash for any...
by David Jay
Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Self directed or Checkbook IRA
Replies: 4
Views: 298

Re: Self directed or Checkbook IRA

Did you do a search of BH for "self directed IRA"? Lots of topics. Real Estate is extremely restricted, check out this thread: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=255294 From the thread above: - You cannot manage or maintain it yourself or have a family member do it. You cannot put in “...
by David Jay
Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?
Replies: 24
Views: 2026

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?

I’m being tempted by the 5 year at 1%.

Inflation protection for the final years of self-funding all living expenses. Buy @ 62, 63 and 64 for spending at ages 67, 68 and 69.
by David Jay
Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security COLA - how is it applied?
Replies: 13
Views: 1250

Re: Social Security COLA - how is it applied?

My question was answered by the link that Fran posted as follows: " For example, a worker who attained age 62 in 2014 would receive cost-of-living adjustments for the years 2014 –2016. The adjustments are cumulative, with each step rounded to the next lower dime. If the PIA at age 62 was $700, the c...
by David Jay
Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can't immediately exchange ETF for another? (Merrill Edge)
Replies: 10
Views: 491

Re: Can't immediately exchange ETF for another? (Merrill Edge)

I can do this at Merrill Edge. I do not know why you cannot (no, I do not have a margin account). Could you try calling and asking again -- maybe the rep was wrong? Otherwise, their understanding of the word "settlement" reminds me of a certain Seinfeld sketch on the meaning of a "car reservation":...
by David Jay
Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Complete newbie here! Would like help determining Roth vs Traditional IRA...
Replies: 11
Views: 612

Re: Complete newbie here! Would like help determining Roth vs Traditional IRA...

Welcome to the forum. One of our resources is the Bogleheads Wiki. It has a bunch of information, including a page on this exact issue here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Traditional_versus_Roth I think there is a trend towards doing a bit of both. It is hard to predict in advance if your income w...
by David Jay
Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security [impact of earnings on benefits]
Replies: 28
Views: 2563

Re: social security

You say this in a very matter-of-fact way. Are you open to a discussion about this schedule? I am open to discussion about taking my benefit early , My wife makes about 70000 a year so I believe some of my benefit will be taxable . Here is the general idea: 1. Your Social Security will be 85% taxab...
by David Jay
Mon Oct 15, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth Rules
Replies: 8
Views: 986

Re: Roth Rules

You used the word "we", so I presume a married couple. If so, each of you should open a Roth this year. One of the qualifiers in the list above is: "Have you had a Roth open for 5 years". You want to start that clock in 2018. A Roth can be done with a conversion of a traditional IRA if your income d...
by David Jay
Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can't immediately exchange ETF for another? (Merrill Edge)
Replies: 10
Views: 491

Re: Can't immediately exchange ETF for another? (Merrill Edge)

About 2 weeks ago, I bought IXUS with cash. When I called Merrill Edge today to do a trade (sell IXUS, buy IEFA), he said I had to wait for the sale of IXUS to settle to cash. Then in 2 business days I can buy IEFA. I thought I read somewhere I could exchange an ETF for another ETF immediately. Can...
by David Jay
Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me fix my life insurance situation...
Replies: 8
Views: 788

Re: Help me fix my life insurance situation...

Simple question - Do you need any life insurance?

I dropped my last policy at age 58. At that point our portfolio would be able to sustain my spouse in the event of my passing. I have no need of any life insurance.
by David Jay
Mon Oct 15, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security [impact of earnings on benefits]
Replies: 28
Views: 2563

Re: social security

Im retired and going to take my social security early at 62 . You say this in a very matter-of-fact way. Are you open to a discussion about this schedule? Would her income impact my social security if we file seperatly ? Her income will not affect your Social Security payment but it will affect tax...
by David Jay
Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feedback on Kai-Zen premium finance life insurance plan
Replies: 12
Views: 965

Re: Feedback on Kai-Zen premium finance life insurance plan

Instead of looking at the pretty glossy brochure, ask for the prospectus.

When you fully understand the prospectus and have calculated the impact of fees, caps, participation rates and dividends lost, then you have a basis for comparing the product to traditional investments.
by David Jay
Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feedback on Kai-Zen premium finance life insurance plan
Replies: 12
Views: 965

Re: Feedback on Kai-Zen premium finance life insurance plan

I looked at the literature for another Boglehead who was pitched this product about 18 months ago. I think the bottom line is the old adage not to mix investments with insurance. It is almost impossible to figure out the different moving parts of this Rube Goldberg arrangement. And if you can’t figu...
by David Jay
Sun Oct 14, 2018 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Muscular Portfolios Questions
Replies: 9
Views: 1023

Re: Muscular Portfolios Questions

Welcome to the forum. We tend towards lazy portfolios here at BH, using broad based stock funds. I had never heard of Muscular Portfolios or Brian Livingston before your post. I am trying to understand Brian’s expertise in portfolio management, most of his books seem to be IT related. Mama-bear cons...
by David Jay
Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I rollover my Traditional IRA to 403b or 457
Replies: 3
Views: 217

Re: Can I rollover my Traditional IRA to 403b or 457

If your plans do not allow a rollover, another possibility is to just convert the $10,000 to Roth, pay the taxes and use the (now) empty tIRA for after-tax contributions.
by David Jay
Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I rollover my Traditional IRA to 403b or 457
Replies: 3
Views: 217

Re: Can I rollover my Traditional IRA to 403b or 457

The 403B or 457 plan can be written to allow rollovers or not allow rollovers. You must consult your plan documents or talk to HR.

The Wiki has good details about backdoor Roth process here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Backdoor_Roth_IRA
by David Jay
Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the US bull become addicted to corporate buybacks?
Replies: 16
Views: 1503

Re: Has the US bull become addicted to corporate buybacks?

1. Corporate buybacks now account for the largest share of trading in US stocks, surpassing individual and institutional buying. 2. This year corporations will buy back more than $1 trillion in stock, a record. Something is wrong with the assertion in Item 1 above. It is not believable that “ buyba...
by David Jay
Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help with asset allocation - 63 yr old
Replies: 12
Views: 1366

Re: How Am I Doing? 63 Yrs Young

So what are you thinking about? What are your concerns? What is your schedule?
by David Jay
Sat Oct 13, 2018 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Route-66 trip recommendations
Replies: 38
Views: 1779

Re: Route-66 trip recommendations

Instead, have them buy a Ntl Park Pass ($80) and visit the big five national parks in Utah. There are some beautiful drives between them (i.e. Between Capital Reef, Bryce Canyon, and Zion.) Hit the north rim of the Grand Canyon on the way out. Closely related to this is the “Grand Circle” tour. We ...
by David Jay
Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 187
Views: 13991

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

Why would I be wrong in my opinion that 2% is the max perpetual SWR for early retirement? I understand that there's a chance that I may accumulate significant assets over time. I'd rather do that than risk running out of money. “wrong” is a strong word, but there is a significant opportunity cost f...
by David Jay
Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security COLA - how is it applied?
Replies: 13
Views: 1250

Social Security COLA - how is it applied?

My spouse turns 62 in December. Her first SS check will be received in January. Will it include the 2019 COLA because her birthday was in December? In this case her very first check would include the COLA.

I googled around and have not been able to find a description of the exact mechanics.
by David Jay
Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: West Michigan Bogleheads Chapter - chat
Replies: 34
Views: 1723

Re: New West Michigan Bogleheads Chapter Established

MIretired wrote:
Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:31 am
Yea. Credit unions is something I've acquired in the past couple yrs.
Like LMCU 3% checking account. Too bad it is limited to $15K
by David Jay
Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:59 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: West Michigan Bogleheads Chapter - chat
Replies: 34
Views: 1723

Re: New West Michigan Bogleheads Chapter Established

As I said above, please keep responding so I can PM everyone about getting together. I have one last big overseas trip coming up in early November, getting back just before Thanksgiving. That suggests that first get together will be in early December. In the meantime, be thinking about what you woul...
by David Jay
Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:41 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: West Michigan Bogleheads Chapter - chat
Replies: 34
Views: 1723

Re: New West Michigan Bogleheads Chapter Established

tenkuky wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:01 pm
ping1050 wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:49 pm
Also interested. Live in Grand Haven
Summer meeting at Grand Haven Beach please, David. :beer
We can "dine" at Pronto Pup...
by David Jay
Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: To Roth IRA or Not
Replies: 13
Views: 976

Re: To ROTH IRA or Not

Cali:

There are some "clocks" that limit your withdrawals from Roth accounts. I would open one now while you qualify, even if you stop contributing in a few years.

That way, when you get to age 55 (or whatever) and you want to use your Roth creatively, the clock qualification is met.
by David Jay
Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: KaiZen Life Policy
Replies: 22
Views: 3678

Re: KaiZen Life Policy

How so? Is it because my opinion differs from yours? No, it’s because of commercial posts such as below: ...that offers benefits way beyond what other investment options, such as 401k, IRA, Roth, regular brokerage accts. etc. can deliver. If you have passed your CFP Exam, you should be ashamed to h...
by David Jay
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: KaiZen Life Policy
Replies: 22
Views: 3678

Re: KaiZen Life Policy

EsaCFP wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:37 pm
I do have knowledge of the topic that the op might benefit from. I don’t own a boat and not soliciting, just giving advice like everyone else, however, I am well educated on the topic.
You are getting very close to violating forum policy.
by David Jay
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: KaiZen Life Policy
Replies: 22
Views: 3678

Re: KaiZen Life Policy

Nate79 wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:13 pm
You bumped an inactive thread why?
And in a first post, telling us we don’t know what we are talking about. How to win friends and influence people.
by David Jay
Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Calculating amount needed for SS bridge
Replies: 50
Views: 2876

Re: Calculating amount needed for SS bridge

I like this approach and that is my plan right now. I am just going to withdraw from my 60/40 portfolio during the bridge period. The 40% bonds @ age 55 will equal the bridge amount required with a 0% discount rate, but I will just withdraw from the portfolio and maintain the 60/40 allocation. At l...
by David Jay
Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 Social Security AWI / Bend Points released
Replies: 10
Views: 803

Re: 2017 Social Security AWI released

Thank you for the info. One less pseudo number on my spreadsheet, wonderful! Any idea when the bend points will be updated? Bend points are directly proportional to the AWI, so they were also updated today: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/piaformula.html First bend point for 2019 (derived from 2017 d...
by David Jay
Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions on a large Roth conversion if we have a 30-40% correction.
Replies: 22
Views: 2313

Re: Opinions on a large Roth conversion if we have a 30-40% correction.

I would certainly convert to the top of, say, the 22% tax bracket.

But hundreds of thousands - you need to look at whether or not it actually saves (net) on taxes.
by David Jay
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 Social Security AWI / Bend Points released
Replies: 10
Views: 803

Re: 2017 Social Security AWI released

Does anyone know what assumptions SS makes about future years Average Wage Index for purposes of supplying their estimate of PIA? I use the anypia program downloaded from the soc sec website. Within that program, I can choose from the three alternatives that are included as part of the trustee's re...
by David Jay
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Calculating amount needed for SS bridge
Replies: 50
Views: 2876

Re: Calculating amount needed for SS bridge

I don’t believe it’s possible to get $54k in 2018 dollars for a maxed out Social Security benefit at age 70. I think the current max at age 70 is $3698 per month, or $44,376 per year. I come up with about a $64,000 max family benefit for someone born in 1956 (the latest year for which an AWI is ava...