Search found 5008 matches

by David Jay
Sat Jun 23, 2018 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need 3% Steady Income from $1.1 Mil Nest Egg
Replies: 14
Views: 689

Re: Need 3% Steady Income from $1.1 Mil Nest Egg

3 percent is a conservative withdrawal rate, that should be no problem. The problem is that you are asking for it as an income stream - I sense that you want it as interest and dividends. This will lead you astray and cause you to make bad investment choices. You can take 3% per year out of ANY mutu...
by David Jay
Fri Jun 22, 2018 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do we mean when we say "HCOL vs LCOL" location?
Replies: 34
Views: 2038

Re: What do we mean when we say "HCOL vs LCOL" location?

Here’s my quick rule of thumb:

If you can’t find an 2000 sq ft home on a quarter acre lot for less than a half mil, you are in a HCOL area.

If you can find one for under $100K, you are in a LCOL area.

The rest of us are sorta’ median
by David Jay
Fri Jun 22, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effect of Index funds on Market Efficiency
Replies: 19
Views: 1091

Re: Effect of Index funds on Market Efficiency

Indexing is currently less than 5% of trading volume. Most of the rest is institutional, not driven by retail investors. There are many more hedge funds, mutual funds, etc. than before, on top of HFT and all kinds of algorithmic trading. Bid/ask spreads are down, volume is higher than historical. T...
by David Jay
Fri Jun 22, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Active can never beat Passive
Replies: 33
Views: 2885

Re: Why Active can never beat Passive

I like what Rick Ferri has said recently here on BH:

There is alpha, but "alpha goes to the manager".
by David Jay
Fri Jun 22, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I want to cash in VTSAX
Replies: 21
Views: 1284

Re: I want to cash in VTSAX

jane_ wrote:
Fri Jun 22, 2018 10:23 am
I'm 34, and I'm okay with this risk.
I have a hard time believing you. Having a desire to sell at the highs suggests that you are not OK with the risk of 100% equities.

Additionally, any money that you need in the next 5 years should not be in equities. Maybe a short term bond fund.
by David Jay
Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Change - 4 Years from Retirement
Replies: 8
Views: 643

Re: Asset Allocation Change - 4 Years from Retirement

Right now a Short Term Bond fund is paying almost as much as an intermediate term bond fund.

I just put 2 years living expenses (I expect to retire in 2019) into Short Term bonds from the proceeds of a rollover.
by David Jay
Thu Jun 21, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: should my parents start a roth ira when 60 years old?
Replies: 8
Views: 859

Re: should my parents start a roth ira when 60 years old?

One thing to remember is "the 5 year rule" as it relates to Roth IRA contributions. A person has to wait 5 years after they open & contribute to a Roth IRA before they can take Roth IRA earnings out Federal tax free without the 10% penalty . So if they open a Roth IRA at age 60, they would have to ...
by David Jay
Thu Jun 21, 2018 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You
Replies: 72
Views: 4079

Re: Factor Investing Makes Someone Money, But Maybe Not You

Also, it’s not easy sticking with something that isn’t working, which leads to behavioral mistakes and added cost. What’s the right answer? If you really understand factors and are committed to a strategy for at least 25 years, then do factors. As I posted on your "simplicity" topic: What is import...
by David Jay
Thu Jun 21, 2018 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "Never time the market" vs. lump sum investment
Replies: 46
Views: 1997

Re: "Never time the market" vs. lump sum investment

Here is the WIKI on windfalls, the information may be useful in your situation: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Managing_a_windfall The correct approach to investing is to select a level of risk (asset allocation) that you can live with regardless of market condition. Then invest, regardless of mark...
by David Jay
Thu Jun 21, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: help, inheritance of $3.5M, read & read BogleH, & still in the dark
Replies: 28
Views: 3580

Re: help, inheritance of $3.5M, read & read BogleH, & still in the dark

If I were in your shoes, I would: 1) pay $1 mm cash for the home, leaving $2.5 mm 2) put the money at one custodian (Schwab or Vanguard). There is no risk in this. 3) invest in a simple 50 % stock, 50% bond portfolio of core stock and bond index funds (mostly US stock, and use an intermediate-term ...
by David Jay
Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retire at 50: Should I?
Replies: 84
Views: 10259

Re: Retire at 50: Should I?

His Social Security, assuming stop work now and draw at 70: $3281/month. She would get about half of that; her own earning record is smaller. You have 8 years before you have to make any decisions, but make sure you evaluate your SS using one of the calculators like: opensocialecurity.com (there a ...
by David Jay
Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Life Strategy Growth Fund, Target Fund, or Total Stock Market
Replies: 45
Views: 2516

Re: Life Strategy Growth Fund, Target Fund, or Total Stock Market

I currently invest 10% of my paycheck into a Tax Deferred Annuity where I get 7% on my money at retirement. My sister is also a teacher with one of these annuities. You will NOT be able to withdraw your money from this annuity with a 7% compounded growth rate. That is the common misdirection (polit...
by David Jay
Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Current Market
Replies: 22
Views: 1681

Re: The Current Market

Thanks to all for the info. The number of years are more or less from the late 80's till now. I didn't watch near as closely then as I do now....figure a lot of people might be that way. As far the last 4 months I was meaning that it appears that the market wants to go but things keep pulling it do...
by David Jay
Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Selling Amazon?
Replies: 17
Views: 1211

Re: Selling Amazon?

Selling GE (or at least most of it, if you want to keep a reminder of single-stock risk) at a loss in the same year as selling stocks with gains will be an offset - reducing your tax bite.
by David Jay
Wed Jun 20, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: should my parents start a roth ira when 60 years old?
Replies: 8
Views: 859

Re: should my parents start a roth ira when 60 years old?

Yes, a Roth is a great tool. Anything they put in it grows tax free and can be withdrawn tax free. Also no taxes for heirs. They don't have to be in stocks, they can invest in Bonds (or even a money market - not recommended) inside a Roth. There are only 2 ways to put money into a Roth - you have to...
by David Jay
Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Current Market
Replies: 22
Views: 1681

Re: The Current Market

ImaDeval wrote:
Wed Jun 20, 2018 10:11 am
I've been in the market for a number of years and I've not seen anything quite like this constant up and down over so many months.
What number?

If it is less than 9, then you have enjoyed a very unusual period of upward trend.
by David Jay
Wed Jun 20, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review
Replies: 5
Views: 509

Re: Portfolio Review

1. TR funds are all-in-one funds. Holding BOTH TR and individual funds in the same account is kind of belt-and-suspenders activity. Selecting between a TR fund and a 3-fund (or similar) of individual funds is a marginal decision - both are excellent. If you want simplicity, use the TR fund. If you w...
by David Jay
Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes
Replies: 36
Views: 3931

Re: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes

Park wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 3:20 pm
But the specificity is high. At low valuations, the probability of high future returns is high. Conversely, at high valuations, the probability of low future returns is high.
TRUE.

Now how does one monetize that information?
by David Jay
Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:05 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Is there a way to block someone?
Replies: 22
Views: 2831

Re: Is there a way to block someone?

Would love a way to block or ignore someone on Bogleheads so their posts don't appear. This one guy keeps preaching about real estate and I'd really love to just filter that out. There's this great opportunity, take a look at VNQ. It's indexed, low fees and is loaded with great investments. :twiste...
by David Jay
Tue Jun 19, 2018 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Safe Growth Strategy
Replies: 11
Views: 1027

Re: Safe Growth Strategy

A classic “lazy” portfolio, such as the ones at the link below will work great. Select an asset allocation that fits your risk tolerance. For an expectation of out-performing inflation, you likely need a minimum stock percentage of 30% (and 70% in bonds). Lazy portfolios here: https://www.bogleheads...
by David Jay
Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advice on Roth conversions
Replies: 19
Views: 1301

Re: Advice on Roth conversions

If you have the desktop version of TurboTax for 2017 you can model your taxes for 2018 - go to Forms mode by choosing View / Forms from the menu or pressing Ctrl+2 - click the Open Form button just above the list of "Forms in My Return" - type "what" in the search box on the popup - click on 'What-...
by David Jay
Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need help from alchemists
Replies: 6
Views: 832

Re: Need help from alchemists

You want to turn them into lead?
by David Jay
Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I on track to retire at 55?
Replies: 24
Views: 2514

Re: Am I on track to retire at 55?

I believe you are in the 12% tax bracket for 2018 if you put 10% in pre-tax savings as follows:

Single 12% bracket: 38,700
Personal allowance: $12,000
Top of 12% tax bracket: $50,700
by David Jay
Tue Jun 19, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Investment Advice! Continue with Raymond James or Swap to Vanguard!
Replies: 20
Views: 1490

Re: Need Investment Advice! Continue with Raymond James or Swap to Vanguard!

josh8906 wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:58 am
All the munis are from 5 to 5.250 percent so we are going to hold on them till they mature or called.
Agree!
by David Jay
Mon Jun 18, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Help
Replies: 14
Views: 908

Re: Investment Help

Welcome to the forum. Nice job laying out your current financial status.
by David Jay
Mon Jun 18, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Northwestern Mutual Advisory Portfolios
Replies: 23
Views: 953

Re: Northwestern Mutual Advisory Portfolios

These comparisons are very sensitive to time period. It is very easy to select start-and-end dates to make any portfolio look good. figures don't lie, but liars figure. The more important question: Why are you engaging with anyone from NWMLIC (Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Company) about invest...
by David Jay
Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein's 8:4:5:3 ratio
Replies: 21
Views: 2656

Re: Bill Bernstein's 8:4:5:3 ratio

Remember that Four Pillars is one of Bill's older works. "If You Can" suggests a simpler portfolio.

I am currently reading "Investor's Manifesto", published after the 2007-2009 downturn. It will be interesting to see what he recommends at that moment in time.
by David Jay
Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex-dividend days: Is there typically anything out of the ordinary?
Replies: 34
Views: 2578

Re: Ex-dividend days: Is there typically anything out of the ordinary?

A confounding issue is that some people WANT the dividend (income investors) and some people want to AVOID the dividend (capital gains investors). So it is mostly a wash, even though there can be an uptick in activity around XD on high-dividend paying stocks. I have not seen any significant studies ...
by David Jay
Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very confused with the current market
Replies: 93
Views: 8309

Re: Very confused with the current market

Here is a link to the Boglehead Philosophy: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Bogleheads%C2%AE_investment_philosophy Coming on this forum and asking us not to suggest BH philosophy seems counter-productive. Our approach is one of humility. We don't know what the market is going to do. And we don't pre...
by David Jay
Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very confused with the current market
Replies: 93
Views: 8309

Re: Very confused with the current market

- I had been on cash for 10 months Why didn't you do some buying in February? The issue with market timing is that you need to be right TWICE - when to get out and when to get back in. It is harder to get back in than it is to get out. You have proved it by not buying when the market went down. You...
by David Jay
Sun Jun 17, 2018 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best Index Fund for HSA
Replies: 4
Views: 585

Re: Best Index Fund for HSA

Low ER, Total Stock fund. What’s not to like (as you have determined that a 100% equity allocation is appropriate for your HSA).
by David Jay
Sun Jun 17, 2018 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Role of Annuity For Savers Who have 20+ years until Retirement
Replies: 32
Views: 2268

Re: Role of Annuity For Savers Who have 20+ years until Retirement

So many comments and all of them wrong. 1) The one-time commission is 4% to 5% depending on age. Since the annuity is intended to produce a lifetime income, this typically works out to an equivalent charge of 0.20%-0.35% a year - much less expensive than any investment advisor fees. 2) The annuity ...
by David Jay
Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Role of Annuity For Savers Who have 20+ years until Retirement
Replies: 32
Views: 2268

Re: Role of Annuity For Savers Who have 20+ years until Retirement

He missed a point: "I get a huge commission check"... First of all I need a like button! secondly, are american advisers obligated by law to inform about a potential commission when advising? No. In fact many insurance agency employment contracts have specific clauses requiring that the agent NOT s...
by David Jay
Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much tilt is enough to make a difference?
Replies: 27
Views: 1829

Re: How much tilt is enough to make a difference?

The problem is that these sorts of analyses is that they are highly sensitive to start and end dates. If you choose a 10 year period with a major US crash your US portfolio will show lower results (DUH). If you choose a period of low interest rates, your bond portfolio will suffer. I went through a...
by David Jay
Sun Jun 17, 2018 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much tilt is enough to make a difference?
Replies: 27
Views: 1829

Re: How much tilt is enough to make a difference?

How reliable is this backtest? Portfolio 1 is my slice and dice AA. 2 has no value splices. 3 is a straight US TSM and TB at 70/30. I used the 10 year period between 1999-2009 to capture the stock market crash. Based on this, the slice and dice is pretty darn good looking :greedy Not able to get pa...
by David Jay
Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A relative has named me in a trust
Replies: 6
Views: 1217

Re: A relative has named me in a trust

Not really. We have a revocable trust in place of a will to simplify things for our kids (at a very emotional time). All they need to know is the lawyer’s contact information. They call the lawyer and the lawyer takes care of the asset transfer(s). Michigan is a Uniform Probate Code state, which me...
by David Jay
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A relative has named me in a trust
Replies: 6
Views: 1217

Re: A relative has named me in a trust

Not really.

We have a revocable trust in place of a will to simplify things for our kids (at a very emotional time). All they need to know is the lawyer’s contact information. They call the lawyer and the lawyer takes care of the asset transfer(s).
by David Jay
Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should fixed income allocation necessarily change over the years?
Replies: 11
Views: 669

Re: Should fixed income allocation necessarily change over the years?

There is the hypothesis that the retirement date risk and the sequence of returns risk is better dealt with by increasing the fixed income allocation 5-10 years before retirement and maintaining the high bond allocation until 5-10 years after retirement, then increasing the stock allocation. That w...
by David Jay
Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment book recommendations?
Replies: 12
Views: 1009

Re: Investment book recommendations?

AlohaJoe wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:46 pm
kmwilson343 wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:29 pm
Hey fellow Bogleheads. Trying to educate myself on investing.
The wiki is as good a place to start as any (note the "Further reading" at the bottom)
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started
From the source above: “If You Can” - a free electronic download is available at the link.
by David Jay
Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fund college tuition through 529 plan or Indexed Universal Life (IUL)
Replies: 32
Views: 1504

Re: Fund college tuition through 529 plan or Indexed Universal Life (IUL)

Is it a good argument not to fund 529 plan because it will reduce the chance to get financial aid for a family with annual income above $200,000? You are never going to get financial aid if your annual income is above $200,000. Not true. Both of my kids were offered scholarships. A scholarship is d...
by David Jay
Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to use dividend appreciation fund?
Replies: 2
Views: 274

Re: Where to use dividend appreciation fund?

Most here would say that the equity portion of your portfolio should be broad-based index funds, focused on total yield . Any strategy that picks out one portion of yield (either dividends or capital appreciation-yes there is a fund for that factor also) and focuses excessively on that factor will t...
by David Jay
Fri Jun 15, 2018 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cash strategies during rising rates
Replies: 4
Views: 537

Re: Cash strategies during rising rates

Short term bond fund. Vanguard is paying 2.78, term risk is minimized by the rapid turnover (constant purchasing of new, higher yield bonds as the old bonds mature) and your 5 year timeframe.

Also, purchase once and you’re done thinking about it.
by David Jay
Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual stocks in a traditional IRA
Replies: 5
Views: 370

Re: Individual stocks in a traditional IRA

pspice78 wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:08 am
What is holding me back is the fact that they have done well and paying the commission fees to sell.
Who is your IRA custodian that you are concerned about transaction costs?
by David Jay
Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A vehicle that "sits up" but can't afford CRV
Replies: 63
Views: 5079

Re: A vehicle that "sits up" but can't afford CRV

My brother loves his Kia Sorento. Bought it new in 2013, still going strong.
by David Jay
Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard accounts
Replies: 11
Views: 906

Re: Vanguard accounts

I believe I said the individual cd's are FDIC issured. I worked in banking for 30 years and even had a stint with the FDIC closing down banks. I never said they were insured by Vanguard. FDIC is a government agency. The confusion may have been your statement about the $500K cap. If you purchase fro...
by David Jay
Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds
Replies: 63
Views: 4506

Re: Flaw in Logic? CD ladder instead of bond funds

Individual Treasuries are a good alternative right now as well. They are available in a range of maturities, so you can buy a 3 year, 5 year, 7 year, etc.
by David Jay
Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard accounts
Replies: 11
Views: 906

Re: Vanguard accounts

My plan is to purchase several CD's to keep them under the $500K FDIC cap. I assume that since this is a joint account each account holder is insured for $250K per CD. There is no FDIC insurance on any brokerage account, so it doesn't matter whether the account is joint. The CD's held in a brokerag...
by David Jay
Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard accounts
Replies: 11
Views: 906

Re: Vanguard accounts

jtl46 wrote:
Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:33 am
My plan is to purchase several CD's to keep them under the $500K FDIC cap. I assume that since this is a joint account each account holder is insured for $250K per CD.
There is no FDIC insurance on any brokerage account, so it doesn't matter whether the account is joint.
by David Jay
Thu Jun 14, 2018 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Managed Payout Fund
Replies: 29
Views: 2410

Re: Vanguard Managed Payout Fund

What are your financial goals that lead you in this direction? Are you comfortable that they will pay out principle if needed to maintain the income stream?