Search found 3945 matches

by David Jay
Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not take Social Security at 62
Replies: 122
Views: 6379

Re: Why not take Social Security at 62

In this case there are the two clear alternatives of the plan being to have obtained maximum total payout at the end of some hypothetical age compared to having optimally managed longevity risk . This is exactly right. The reason why there is such vigorous discussion about when to claim is the diff...
by David Jay
Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Some questions from a brand-new Boglehead
Replies: 8
Views: 499

Re: Some questions from a brand-new Boglehead

Welcome to the forum. It is great that you have an interest in investing at 21 - I didn't make my first retirement contribution (401K) until age 28. 1. There are (2) ways to take funds out of a 401K early: SEPP (72t) or retire at age 55. 2. You have a 60 year investment horizon, postponing all taxes...
by David Jay
Mon Nov 20, 2017 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Planning for the final months of work
Replies: 50
Views: 3348

Re: Planning for the final months of work

And Vanguard doesn't do this? They don't make any money by selling their funds? All of these funds get money out of investors one way or another. The salesmen at Vanguard are just as focused on selling their funds. The Vanguard company is owned by the funds. So any profits go into the funds (which ...
by David Jay
Mon Nov 20, 2017 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Planning for the final months of work
Replies: 50
Views: 3348

Re: Planning for the final months of work

Lonestarz wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 7:41 pm
I would stop contributing to savings and pay [mortgage] down from income now.
^^^ This

It will really feel good to go into retirement without a mortgage payment.
by David Jay
Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Drive it till it dies. It died.
Replies: 54
Views: 5625

Re: Drive it till it dies. It died.

As "Goal33" said, the vehicle with worthless except as spare parts if it doesn't move.

Call your local, independent transmission shops and get their opinion. You may have to put a few thousand into it in order to sell it for a reasonable price.
by David Jay
Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Current precarious equity environment for a retiree
Replies: 43
Views: 3166

Re: Current precarious equity environment for a retiree

Could the next market downturn be sufficiently deep or long enough to depress the equity part of a portfolio from which withdrawals are being made so that there is not enough in the way of assets or time to recover (SOR risk)? Run through some numbers to calm your fears. If you have a 4% withdrawal...
by David Jay
Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hyundai Ioniq Electric lease vs. Nissan Leaf
Replies: 4
Views: 342

Re: Hyundai Ioniq Electric lease vs. Nissan Leaf

My commute is about 86 miles and there are no charging stations at work. So a 107 or 110 mile range might be cutting it close? Way too close! The air conditioner on a hot day is enough to run you out of charge. Or a 30 minute traffic jam. If you are determined to buy an electric, buy a series hybri...
by David Jay
Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond funds vs Ladder
Replies: 26
Views: 1788

Re: Bond funds vs Ladder

my conclusion, which im wondering if anyone can explain to me why i am wrong, is simply to own no bonds at all. I was 100% stocks into my mid-50s. It can be done, but you must be able to hold through the down markets. It was easier in the days of quarterly paper statements, I am not confident that ...
by David Jay
Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?
Replies: 41
Views: 4519

Re: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?

selters wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:28 pm
If investors accept that massive concentration of ownership in the largest companies in the world is bad...
I don't accept that there is a problem with Vanguard holding 10% of the equity of each SP 500 company.
by David Jay
Sat Nov 18, 2017 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with investment ideas to get to retirement faster and in better shape!
Replies: 7
Views: 704

Re: Help with investment ideas to get to retirement faster and in better shape!

Gold as an investment has never made sense to me. Silver, maybe. It is used in a lot of applications including solar panels. I like Buffett on commodities: "The problem with commodities is that you are betting on what someone else would pay for them in six months. The commodity itself isn't going t...
by David Jay
Sat Nov 18, 2017 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 133
Views: 9644

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

Dangerous but not as dangerous? :confused (As all stock) Over periods less than around 20 years, bonds have been less volatile in terms of real returns. Over longer periods, bonds have been more volatile than stocks. See Siegel's fantastic book Stocks for the Long Run for analysis on this issue. Of...
by David Jay
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Personal Advisor Services/Portfolio Review
Replies: 45
Views: 3254

Re: Vanguard Personal Advisor Services/Portfolio Review

Welcome to the forum. I understand the anxiety: For me retirement was an intellectual exercise 3 years out. Now that I am about a year away it is getting more emotional. If your expenses are 50K a year you are in great shape! Build in another 10k for travel or other activities (you want to retire to...
by David Jay
Fri Nov 17, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Current precarious equity environment for a retiree
Replies: 43
Views: 3166

Re: Current precarious equity environment for a retiree

A rising-equity glide path is one way to control sequence of returns risk. The rising equity glidepath has been discussed quite a bit recently, with moderate equity allocations early in retirement, rising over time. ERN took an extensive look at it here: https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/09/13/the...
by David Jay
Fri Nov 17, 2017 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: DFA vs Vanguard
Replies: 5
Views: 609

Re: DFA vs Vanguard

You have accurately described the issue: DFA funds have a good conceptual foundation, but the combination of fund expense plus advisor cost make many wonder if DFA funds can generate enough beta to overcome the "overhead".
by David Jay
Fri Nov 17, 2017 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cashed out Inherited IRA used to justify IRA contribution?
Replies: 20
Views: 1077

Re: Cashed out Inherited IRA used to justify IRA contribution?

One final thought on the original question: If your friend has no income and intends to continue to have no income through his lifetime and into retirement, why does he need an IRA? His taxes in retirement will be zero, so there is no difference between holding this money as cash and putting it into...
by David Jay
Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Index Fund Arguments - Help staying the course.
Replies: 19
Views: 2471

Re: Anti-Index Fund Arguments - Help staying the course.

There is a parallel thread running here: https://bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=232375 A great observation by "Nisiprius" on that thread: I would call attention to a standard deceptive sales technique which I've encountered too many times. Let's call it "the competition won't do X." All t...
by David Jay
Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cashed out Inherited IRA used to justify IRA contribution?
Replies: 20
Views: 1077

Re: Cashed out Inherited IRA used to justify IRA contribution?

There should be minimal taxes if he withdraws the funds.

Perhaps withdraw $5000 in 2017 and $5000 in 2018 to spread out the income. Standard deduction covers the first $3400(?) so he is paying 10% of perhaps $1600 or $160 each tax year.
by David Jay
Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with my Taxable Equity Portfolio to be used as a Bridge in 3 Years?
Replies: 6
Views: 479

Re: What to do with my Taxable Equity Portfolio to be used as a Bridge in 3 Years?

Welcome to the forum! There is no easy (low tax) way to assure the value of those assets. You must either sell (and pay capital gains taxes) prior to retirement or "bet" that the market will not be down your first year, when you can sell and your tax rate will presumably be lower than today. Because...
by David Jay
Thu Nov 16, 2017 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 4148
Views: 1102192

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

livesoft wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:57 pm
...so today may not even end up being a 52-week high.
What? No new high? Man the lifeboats!!!
by David Jay
Thu Nov 16, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.
Replies: 50
Views: 4355

Re: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.

Finridge: Your numbers are correct. But there are behavioral aspects to consider with high stock portfolios. There can be a substantial change in loss aversion as human capital goes to zero. The rising equity glidepath has been discussed quite a bit recently, with moderate equity allocations early i...
by David Jay
Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The passive investing trap
Replies: 23
Views: 4320

Re: The passive investing trap

Second answer: It is true that the market goes up and goes down. And passive index funds follow the market. But the underlying implication is that this is somehow exploitable through active management. It is false that these ups and downs can consistently and repeatably be exploited by market timing...
by David Jay
Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The passive investing trap
Replies: 23
Views: 4320

Re: The passive investing trap

To start with, that is the SP500 index (in points). It is not total return.

The SP500 typically has about a 2% dividend yield. So through the peaks and valleys, the holder of the SP500 makes 2% per year just in dividends, in addition to what the chart shows.
by David Jay
Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side
Replies: 40
Views: 2304

Re: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side

Oddly enough, for a supposedly "in-between" class, a quick peek with PortfolioVisualizer shows that since inception of PFF (portfolio 2, red), it has had virtually the same return as Total Bond (portfolio 1, blue) and yet has had more risk than the stock market as a whole (Total Stock, portfolio 3,...
by David Jay
Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side
Replies: 40
Views: 2304

Re: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side

I think you will find that the BH consensus would be to use broad-based index funds for your risk (equity) assets, intermediate (or shorter) bond funds or fixed instruments (CDs, TIPs, etc.) for your safety allocation. Any other risk instruments should be in "fun money", limited to - say - 5% of you...
by David Jay
Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fair way to split expenses?
Replies: 105
Views: 4487

Re: Fair way to split expenses?

DaftInvestor wrote:
Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:31 am
I put the money in - she takes the money out.
Hey, that's our system as well! :D

(on a serious note: she really is the household manager, seeing to it that all of the bills go out on time, etc. It would be difficult for me travel extensively for business without her management at home.)
by David Jay
Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 167
Views: 10697

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

I also play on the MMM forum and use the same screen name. So what is MMM? 8-) M ister M oney M ustache website: https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/ What I have gleaned from a few visits there, it focuses on very early (i.e. 20s and 30s) "retirement" through ultra high saving percentages (while employ...
by David Jay
Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annuity Exit Strategy Help Requested: Wife’s ROTH IRA – Allianz 222 Fixed Index Annuity – Stay or go? How?
Replies: 24
Views: 1380

Re: Annuity Exit Strategy Help Requested: Wife’s ROTH IRA – Allianz 222 Fixed Index Annuity – Stay or go? How?

You will lose much more than 1% per year (likely 2.5% to 3%) to keep the fixed index annuity. The surrender fee is a bargain compared with keeping these "stinkers". FINRA, the government chartered regulatory organization, has issued an alert on those products: https://www.finra.org/investors/alerts/...
by David Jay
Tue Nov 14, 2017 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it worth starting investing if 7-8 years from retirement?
Replies: 22
Views: 2461

Re: Is it worth starting investing if 7-8 years from retirement?

spoonfork wrote:
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:14 am
Annuities are confusing.
And whom do you think benefits from that complexity? The insurance company or the buyer?
by David Jay
Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are actively managed funds that claim to beat the market actually "scams"?
Replies: 29
Views: 2593

Re: Are actively managed funds that claim to beat the market actually "scams"?

Doc wrote:
Tue Nov 14, 2017 2:06 pm
Alexa9 wrote:
Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:49 pm
Past returns ≠ future returns
Nobody knows nothing
So if "nobody knows nothing" how do you know that "past returns ≠ future returns" or do you not really know because it's nothing? :D
Maybe they are a somebody...
by David Jay
Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 167
Views: 10697

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

I plan on the 4% never failing. I take 4% of whatever is left every year. 😀 Merriman's work suggests that 6% is a realistic withdrawal rate for a variable withdrawal strategy. I am planning on a 5% variable withdrawal strategy. 99% works too . All kidding aside I think most folks on this board will...
by David Jay
Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Confused on how Vanguard Roth IRA works...
Replies: 8
Views: 991

Re: Confused on how Vanguard Roth IRA works...

If you don't know where to invest the money, put it in a Target Retirement fund for now. It has a low ($1000) minimum and is completely diversified (US stocks, Intl Stocks, US Bonds, Intl Bonds). The number (i.e. TR2050) is your assumed retirement date - the date when you will begin to withdraw fund...
by David Jay
Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 167
Views: 10697

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

TonyDAntonio wrote:
Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:48 am
I plan on the 4% never failing. I take 4% of whatever is left every year. 😀
Merriman's work suggests that 6% is a realistic withdrawal rate for a variable withdrawal strategy. I am planning on a 5% variable withdrawal strategy.
by David Jay
Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Introduction to myself, my portfolio and my situation
Replies: 9
Views: 1689

Re: Introduction to myself, my portfolio and my situation

Welcome to the forum. You are less than a year older than me and I intend to retire at age 62. So I have done some thinking about these issues. First, retirement is completely an EXPENSES issue. You can reasonably take out 5% of your current portfolio every year if there is no expectation of living...
by David Jay
Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why NOT make more money?
Replies: 191
Views: 15526

Re: Why NOT make more money?

Here is my situation (said before in other threads): We are in early 50s and have achieved financial independence at the comfortable level (4% rule). But my financial independence has no margin of error, i.e., no specific money budgeted for kids' wedding in the future, for slow overseas travels, et...
by David Jay
Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dan Solin Article "Investor Insanity"
Replies: 5
Views: 840

Re: Dan Solin Article "Investor Insanity"

Shame he didn’t point readers toward this forum “for further enlightenment.” Probably against HuffPo editorial policy to link out to competing forums/sources of ad revenue :-) But good none-the-less. But bogleheads.org doesn't generate any ad revenue. So how is bogleheads competing with huffpo? Cli...
by David Jay
Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the difference between retiring and resigning from a job?
Replies: 42
Views: 4375

Re: What is the difference between retiring and resigning from a job?

I actually want to leave quietly. That is why I am thinking not to announce my retirement. I certainly do not like a party, I am an introvert. 1. Start with your employee handbook. What does it say? Mine discusses two different forms of voluntary separation: Resignation and Retirement. There are so...
by David Jay
Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: useing Roth in retirement
Replies: 4
Views: 773

Re: useing Roth in retirement

The entire traditional IRA (2.2M) will be subject to RMDs at age 70.5. The percentage is based on life expectancy so every year the RMD percentage goes up. 3.6% at age 70, 5.3% at age 80, 9.3% at age 90. To put some numbers on it (assuming your account balance never grew), 3.6% of 2.2M is $79,000, 5...
by David Jay
Sun Nov 12, 2017 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: useing Roth in retirement
Replies: 4
Views: 773

Re: useing Roth in retirement

Many here are recommending converting to the top of the 25% tax bracket each year before start of RMD.

Use the search function for "Roth conversion" and you will see many threads (including one started by me...)
by David Jay
Fri Nov 03, 2017 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I can take $15k out of my trad IRA with no taxes - should I?
Replies: 37
Views: 3291

Re: I can take $15k out of my trad IRA with no taxes - should I?

Gill wrote:
Fri Nov 03, 2017 4:45 pm
Better yet, transfer a similar amount to a Roth until you are facing RMD's.
^^^ This!

If you put it in taxable you will have to pay taxes on growth over the years. All growth is tax free in a Roth.
by David Jay
Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:55 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: To Avatar or not to Avatar . . how did you choose or not choose?
Replies: 115
Views: 5198

Re: To Avatar or not to Avatar . . how did you choose or not choose?

F150HD wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:27 pm
The password for my Vanguard account is the last 8 digits of PI.
Cute...
by David Jay
Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Contrarian Fund Investing Advice
Replies: 4
Views: 651

Re: Vanguard Contrarian Fund Investing Advice

A "contrarian" fund traditionally has invested in out-of-favor companies based on their underlying fundamentals. A contrarian fund will not protect from a general market downturn. Low volatility is achieved by holding another asset (typically bonds) alongside a stock fund. A respected author, Rick F...
by David Jay
Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: $500 Windows Laptop
Replies: 29
Views: 2569

Re: $500 Windows Laptop

That's a lot of money for a re-furb.

You don't need an i7 for around the house. Find an i5 with a SSD. The SSD will make much more difference for common tasks.
by David Jay
Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A tax planning question about the proposed GOP tax plan
Replies: 7
Views: 1017

Re: A tax planning question about the proposed GOP tax plan

No can do - no commenting on proposed legislation on the BH forum.
by David Jay
Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Me Break My Love Affair With Fidelity Low Priced Stock
Replies: 76
Views: 6000

Re: Help Me Break My Love Affair With Fidelity Low Priced Stock

omgbirdman wrote:
Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:17 pm
I would say that 6% of portfolio is negligible enough that you can let it be.
+1
by David Jay
Thu Nov 02, 2017 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Consolidating and Simplifying Holdings
Replies: 7
Views: 376

Re: Consolidating and Simplifying Holdings

3 - The S&P funds both have a lot of capital gains - the Vanguard shares in particular as they were actually purchased for me by my grandfather more than 15 years ago while everything else was bought by me or my advisor much more recently. Should I bite the bullet and convert them to TSM or hold an...
by David Jay
Thu Nov 02, 2017 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the One investment to rule them all?
Replies: 25
Views: 3289

Re: the One investment to rule them all?

LifeStrategy Aggressive (80/20).

Or if you can't take the heat, LS Moderate (60/40)
by David Jay
Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Transferring Voya 403b to another Annuity.
Replies: 12
Views: 792

Re: Transferring Voya 403b to another Annuity.

Harry:

Let us know when the rollover is complete. Come back and talk to us about investing and the different choices available. The IRA money probably shouldn't all be in a single asset class (i.e. all in CDs, all in bonds, all in stocks).
by David Jay
Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment Plan
Replies: 19
Views: 984

Re: Investment Plan

Welcome to the forum.

If you put the names of the funds you will get more comments. Most of us do not carry all of the fund names in our heads and it is asking a lot to ask people to research fund names in order to give you input.

You can edit your post by using the "pencil" icon.
by David Jay
Wed Nov 01, 2017 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth fund choices
Replies: 8
Views: 600

Re: Roth fund choices

You haven't given us much to work with - what is the purpose for your Roth and how does it fit into your other assets? For us, it looks like we will not need to spend our Roth funds at all. Barring any unforeseen events, we expect to leave our Roth assets to your kids. If that plan holds, I expect t...
by David Jay
Wed Nov 01, 2017 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable Annuity - Cash out or 1035 exchange ?
Replies: 4
Views: 455

Re: Variable Annuity - Cash out or 1035 exchange ?

I would take the cash. If your relative is still working and is not max-ing out their tax advantaged space (401K/IRA/HSA/529, etc.) each year, then they should increase their contributions and use the $29,000 for living expenses. That, in essence, "converts" the 29,000 from taxable to tax-deferred. ...