Search found 5619 matches

by David Jay
Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is market cap weighting a dumb idea?
Replies: 64
Views: 2982

Re: Is market cap weighting a dumb idea?

May I suggest that a cap-weighted index always "overweights" (whatever that actually implies) expensive stocks. “Overweights” compared to what benchmark? :? I was going to the definition of cap-weighted - the fund holds more dollars of higher cap companies. I don’t know where he was going with the ...
by David Jay
Wed Oct 31, 2018 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is market cap weighting a dumb idea?
Replies: 64
Views: 2982

Re: Is market cap weighting a dumb idea?

amongst Faber's arguments, there's this point: But there's also a flaw with market cap weighting in that there is no tether to fundamentals. This surprises many people but the market index is just price. That's it, no earnings or revenue measures, just price. So a market cap index often overweights...
by David Jay
Wed Oct 31, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is market cap weighting a dumb idea?
Replies: 64
Views: 2982

Re: Is market cap weighting a dumb idea?

Just saw a Tweet storm by Meb Faber. He argues that market cap weighting is a dumb idea, by showing that the largest stocks [note the plural in this statement] in the S&P500 have massively underperformed the index: Actually, the graph is not showing that at all. The graph shows that the SP500 index...
by David Jay
Wed Oct 31, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we discourage the bond tent?
Replies: 53
Views: 4144

Re: Should we discourage the bond tent?

Could you point out a target date fund that has a decreasing equity glideslope through the retirement years? The ones I have seen (i.e. VG TargetRetirement, Fid. Freedom Index) hold a fixed allocation in the retirement years. Many of them do. https://www.hightoweradvisors.com/team/hsw/thoughtleader...
by David Jay
Wed Oct 31, 2018 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we discourage the bond tent?
Replies: 53
Views: 4144

Re: Should we discourage the bond tent?

They just need to compare what they have tested to declining equity glide path and the declining one will look superior to what they have shown in their tables. That's standard stuff and what every target date fund does. Help me understand. You seem to be saying that a portfolio with a declining eq...
by David Jay
Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we discourage the bond tent?
Replies: 53
Views: 4144

Re: Should we discourage the bond tent?

They just need to compare what they have tested to declining equity glide path and the declining one will look superior to what they have shown in their tables. That's standard stuff and what every target date fund does. Help me understand. You seem to be saying that a portfolio with a declining eq...
by David Jay
Wed Oct 31, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we discourage the bond tent?
Replies: 53
Views: 4144

Re: Should we discourage the bond tent?

I am not doing a 30/70 as in the Kitces example (note that Kitces only introduces it as a concept, he specifically says more research is necessary). My case is that I was 58 years old with a 100% stock portfolio and no pension. I needed a way to fund 8 years of living expenses prior to start of SS w...
by David Jay
Wed Oct 31, 2018 9:23 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2019!
Replies: 123
Views: 15332

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2019!

lacseul wrote:
Wed Oct 31, 2018 7:00 am
1 July 2019. Final flight. 50 years a pilot . Done at 67 plus a few months. No more thunderstorms.
Glad you will be diverting to your alternate...
by David Jay
Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:48 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2019!
Replies: 123
Views: 15332

Re: Roll Call for the Retirement Class of 2019!

:musical_note: " We're movin' on up... " :musical_note: (theme from the tv show: "The Jeffersons"). Just reached a final agreement with the boss. January 15 is my last day. The day I turn 62. On the 16th I'm going to call in "well". Congratulations! Find yourself a nice retirement countdown app. Ve...
by David Jay
Tue Oct 30, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA W/D 5 yr Rule Clarification
Replies: 10
Views: 864

Re: Roth IRA W/D 5 yr Rule Clarification

Quoted directly from 590b (2017): What Are Qualified Distributions? A qualified distribution is any payment or distribution from your Roth IRA that meets the following requirements. It is made after the 5-year period beginning with the first taxable year for which a contribution was made to a Roth I...
by David Jay
Tue Oct 30, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA W/D 5 yr Rule Clarification
Replies: 10
Views: 864

Re: Roth IRA W/D 5 yr Rule Clarification

Silk McCue wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 3:23 pm
OVER AGE 59.5
FIVE YEARS OR MORE SINCE OPENING FIRST ROTH IRA

All Distributions Are Qualified
^^^ This

It doesn't matter if it is a distribution or a withdrawal or a conversion or a contribution or earnings.

[as one who is over 59.5 and has owned a Roth for more than 5 years]
by David Jay
Tue Oct 30, 2018 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kevin O'Leary: owning a car is a terrible idea
Replies: 43
Views: 3311

Re: Kevin O'Leary: owning a car is a terrible idea

randomguy wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:24 am
He recommends public transit...
Yea, right... When was the last time O'Leary actually took public transit? I'll bet it was sometime before the 21th Century.
by David Jay
Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ancestry DNA changed my background
Replies: 32
Views: 4384

Re: Ancestry DNA changed my background

About those lederhosen...
by David Jay
Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annuity Cash Surrender Help
Replies: 15
Views: 1264

Re: Annuity Cash Surrender Help

I feel like by collecting SS and investing this money she might see a better return? Highly unlikely. It is difficult to construct ANY alternative investment that is better than deferring Social Security. After FRA, the lifetime payment increases by 8% per year (actually 8/12 of 1% per month) and d...
by David Jay
Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why has VG Target 2015 outperformed Lifestrategy Cons. Growth?
Replies: 6
Views: 721

Re: Why has VG Target 2015 outperformed Lifestrategy Cons. Growth?

rkhusky wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:06 am
Cody wrote:
Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:31 am
TDF2015 And LS40 have basically the same AA (about 42%) equity.
Cody
10 years ago TR2015 was 63% stocks.
5 years ago TR2015 was 54% stocks.

Stocks have had significant gains over the last 10 years.
^^^ This!
by David Jay
Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Running Tires Smaller than OEM size?
Replies: 15
Views: 809

Re: Running Tires Smaller than OEM size?

I don't know that I would trust some random stranger on a financial board to give you good information on that question. Of course that won't stop me :happy If this is a sedan application (not a truck towing a heavy 5th wheel or a large SUV towing a big travel trailer), the only problem that you wi...
by David Jay
Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Being true to my IPS, or violating it?
Replies: 22
Views: 2003

Re: Being true to my IPS, or violating it?

Lastly - as I’ve studied this site over the past few years, I’ve searched mostly on pure financial topics….one of the replies here got into psychology and - while I know that plays a role - I’ve haven’t studied that very much….so I’ll hunt this BH site for other psych type posts - should be interes...
by David Jay
Sat Oct 27, 2018 7:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: sold condo that was given to me, taxes owed?
Replies: 17
Views: 1376

Re: sold condo that was given to me, taxes owed?

cals400ex wrote:
Sat Oct 27, 2018 6:45 pm
I am currently in the 24% bracket.
The 2017 24% tax bracket has become the 22% bracket in 2018. There is no longer a 24% bracket. Neverrr mind.. (confused 24% and 25%)
by David Jay
Sat Oct 27, 2018 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Being true to my IPS, or violating it?
Replies: 22
Views: 2003

Re: Being true to my IPS, or violating it?

My IPS has a statement that I move my AA no more than 5% per year - to keep me from doing something impetuous.
by David Jay
Sat Oct 27, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA Rolling Early Withdrawal Penalty?
Replies: 13
Views: 830

Re: Roth IRA Rolling Early Withdrawal Penalty?

So am I correct to believe I could draw on converted Roth IRA funds anytime without penalty? Yes. You have met the two requirements - your Roth IRA has met its 5 years and you have passed your 59.5 years. Any withdrawal is both penalty free and tax free (even the earnings that have occured inside t...
by David Jay
Sat Oct 27, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment help, please
Replies: 9
Views: 914

Re: Investment help, please

I'm all in for making things simple but would changing this portfolio at this time to a 3 or 4 fund portfolio, be a wise move? You have not told us if the ML account is taxable or tax-advantaged (IRA, etc). That makes a big difference in taxation. If it is a taxable account and your losses cover yo...
by David Jay
Sat Oct 27, 2018 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Market Timing = Dumb. But What About Retirement Timing?
Replies: 15
Views: 2351

Re: Market Timing = Dumb. But What About Retirement Timing?

Everybody needs to evaluate their retirement asset allocation in light of sequence of return and portfolio size risks. I have chosen to follow a "bond tent" strategy, where my most conservative allocation (maximum bond percentage) is at retirement. Kitces discusses the concept here: https://www.kitc...
by David Jay
Sat Oct 27, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation With Age
Replies: 10
Views: 1550

Re: Asset Allocation With Age

A prudent move could be a 10% percentage point move if it can be done in your IRA without tax consequences. From 40% to 30% stocks.

For the long term, I would continue to hold a minimum of 25% to 30% in stocks, regardless of age.
by David Jay
Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How many miles (total) on car before buying another car ?
Replies: 114
Views: 7153

Re: How many miles (total) on car before buying another car ?

My current stable is: 114,000 148,000 and 160,000. If it’s a Toyota, Honda or domestic pickup truck, 150,000 is easy without a lot of repair bills. Could you kindly reply from the perspective of the 3 factors I listed in my question? #2 is the opposite - thieves want to steal higher value new cars....
by David Jay
Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to exit out of the Stock Market?
Replies: 58
Views: 6124

Re: How to exit out of the Stock Market?

Sophia: You have received a lot of specific advice, but I would like to zoom out to the 30,000 foot level. When do you adjust your Asset Allocation: 1. You adjust your AA when your life situation changes. Most particularly as you approach retirement when you shift from accumulation to decumulation. ...
by David Jay
Fri Oct 26, 2018 10:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How many miles (total) on car before buying another car ?
Replies: 114
Views: 7153

Re: How many miles (total) on car before buying another car ?

My current stable is: 114,000 148,000 and 160,000.

If it’s a Toyota, Honda or domestic pickup truck, 150,000 is easy without a lot of repair bills.
by David Jay
Fri Oct 26, 2018 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advise on term vs whole life
Replies: 31
Views: 2231

Re: Advise on term vs whole life

Universal Fixed Index Homeowners Insurance
by David Jay
Fri Oct 26, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Much, How Long, and For Who Do I Need Term Life Insurance?
Replies: 11
Views: 662

Re: How Much, How Long, and For Who Do I Need Term Life Insurance?

1. 15x salary is reasonable. 2. You can layer two (or more) policies if you think that there will be a "hole" after 20 years. Buy a large, 20 year policy and a smaller, 30 year policy. As your assets grow and the needs shrink (kids out of the house, etc.), the 20 year policy lapses. The 30 year poli...
by David Jay
Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGT vs QQQ
Replies: 10
Views: 1325

Re: VGT vs QQQ

P.S. I personally owned QQQ for a while. Made money on it, too. I was an idiot. I lucked out. Similar story, I rode QQQ up out of the great recession. I think I bought when NASDAQ was 1500, sold when I discovered lazy portfolios in about 2014 (I came to BH with a "Coffeehouse" portfolio). As you sa...
by David Jay
Fri Oct 26, 2018 7:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security - 2 year inflation adjustment gap
Replies: 22
Views: 3222

Re: Social Security - 2 year inflation adjustment gap

Not sure where you are watching, but the 2018 COLA (payable in 2019) is 2.8%, shown here: https://www.ssa.gov/cola/
by David Jay
Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any Experience with Ameritus Investment Corp?
Replies: 1
Views: 172

Re: Any Experience with Ameritus Investment Corp?

I believe that it is “Ameritas” (with an “a”). Ameritas investment Corp is a subsidiary of Ameritas Life Insurance Corporation. They discuss on their RIA page that they offer, among other things, variable insurance products to their clients (that would be variable annuities, variable universal life,...
by David Jay
Thu Oct 25, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Who/what made the helpful culture of Bogleheads?
Replies: 29
Views: 1934

Re: Who/what made the helpful culture of Bogleheads?

I have always been inquisitive, but what I found at BH is a system that works for me but is also totally transferable . That keeps me around to help others. I think all natural teachers get great joy when "the lights come on". @David Jay, could you say a bit more about what you mean by "totally tra...
by David Jay
Thu Oct 25, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Who/what made the helpful culture of Bogleheads?
Replies: 29
Views: 1934

Re: Who/what made the helpful culture of Bogleheads?

I have always been inquisitive, but what I found at BH is a system that works for me but is also totally transferable . That keeps me around to help others. I think all natural teachers get great joy when "the lights come on". Separately, the heavy moderation policy keeps the threads on the shared e...
by David Jay
Thu Oct 25, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: social security maximize plan
Replies: 9
Views: 1084

Re: social security maximize plan

Here's a link to Mike Piper's free and very helpful calculator intended to help folks maximize their Social Security benefits. If you haven't already tried it out, be sure to do so. https://opensocialsecurity.com/ One of the nice features of Mike's calculator is the alternate scenario. He gives you...
by David Jay
Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...
Replies: 88
Views: 12335

Re: For those waiting for a 'correction' ...

shainy wrote:
Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:12 am
I am waiting to pull the trigger this week.
In hindsight, probably should have started yesterday...
by David Jay
Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security - 2 year inflation adjustment gap
Replies: 22
Views: 3222

Re: Social Security - 2 year inflation adjustment gap

I just worked through my spouse's Social Security benefit (and filing - as the low benefit she will claim at 62, I plan to wait until age 70) and I found something that I thought I would post here so it would be available for future searches: One's benefit is based on the AWI from the (full) year yo...
by David Jay
Wed Oct 24, 2018 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA Rolling Early Withdrawal Penalty?
Replies: 13
Views: 830

Re: Roth IRA Rolling Early Withdrawal Penalty?

Here is my reference for Roth accounts: There are multiple Roth IRA "clocks" (time based limitations): 1. Age 59.5 2. 5 years after opening your first Roth (this is a one-time clock - if you have had any Roth open for 5 years this clock is met) 3. 5 year conversion holding period (this clock starts ...
by David Jay
Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The importance of writing it down (IPS) - and a Thank You!
Replies: 7
Views: 1291

Re: The importance of writing it down (IPS) - and a Thank You!

David Jay, Thanks for your replies and welcome. I just want to be sure I understand what you're saying. (My analogy has come back to haunt me!) You're saying it's not best in your opinion to let my stock allocation go down too far and not rebalance? Following a standard re-balance program means you...
by David Jay
Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump sum pension vs. annual annuity
Replies: 12
Views: 1690

Re: Lump sum pension vs. annual annuity

I've heard about opening a Vanguard management fund of some type and use the 4% rule, if possible. I¹m a complete novice to this, so any thoughts are surely appreciated . Lots of good stuff on the WIKI, start here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started Don't be afraid to ask questions, bu...
by David Jay
Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump sum pension vs. annual annuity
Replies: 12
Views: 1690

Re: Lump sum pension vs. annual annuity

My options are, I can take a lump sum ($35K) now, or take single life annuity now at 177./mo. Or at 65, take the annuity is 286./mo. or lump sum projected at $46K. Another interesting option is to take 275./mo. now, but for only 10 years. And a note, if my spouse and I should die all the money is g...
by David Jay
Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab Intelligent Portfolio is crashing...
Replies: 36
Views: 3929

Re: Schwab Intelligent Portfolio is crashing...

1. High Portfolio Growth 2. No drops in Portfolio value PICK ONE This is what asset allocation is all about. If you never want to drop 5%, you need a portfolio that is 0/100 or maybe 10/90 stocks/bonds. With real growth (that is, growth above the inflation rate) of perhaps 1%. Try the rule of 72 on ...
by David Jay
Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The importance of writing it down (IPS) - and a Thank You!
Replies: 7
Views: 1291

Re: The importance of writing it down (IPS) - and a Thank You!

I am a little bit worried about your plan not to rebalance into stocks. To use your analogy, you want your ship to bring you some treasure, but then you don’t want to send it back out onto the sea empty to collect more treasure. You want to keep it in port, safe from the waves. This isn’t something ...
by David Jay
Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The importance of writing it down (IPS) - and a Thank You!
Replies: 7
Views: 1291

Re: The importance of writing it down (IPS) - and a Thank You!

Welcome to the forum. Looks like you have acquired that great asset - peace of mind.
by David Jay
Sun Oct 21, 2018 6:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Quitting w/o notice
Replies: 132
Views: 8639

Re: Quitting w/o notice

It is very poor form if you expect to return to the job market.

My company has a policy that says “no recommendation” for someone who leaves without proper notice and an exit interview. So it can impact you down the road.
by David Jay
Sat Oct 20, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is my IRA underperforming?
Replies: 15
Views: 1650

Re: Is my IRA underperforming?

On an $11,000 starting investment, they allocated 1% to High Yield Bond?

That would be $110.
by David Jay
Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?
Replies: 61
Views: 3324

Re: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?

Kenkat wrote:
Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:18 am
They are cheap because supply far outweighs demand.
And THAT is the answer.
by David Jay
Fri Oct 19, 2018 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation heading into retirement
Replies: 8
Views: 1141

Re: Asset Allocation heading into retirement

David Jay: I just retired and my wife will be retiring in a few months. I am also planning to use the "bond tent"/rising glide path strategy. We are at about 37/63 (I was aiming for 35% bonds). I was curious how you settled on a 45/55 allocation. Do you think that's more appropriate? This is very p...
by David Jay
Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: keep cash in after-tax for bridge to Social Security ?
Replies: 38
Views: 3572

Re: keep cash in after-tax for bridge to Social Security ?

I am thinking about a ladder of 5 year TIPs to cover my final 3 years before SS (at age 70). Purchase at ages 62, 63 and 64.
by David Jay
Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you trade ETFs exactly like mutual funds?
Replies: 51
Views: 3301

Re: How do you trade ETFs exactly like mutual funds?

b0B wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:27 pm
This doesn't work. I would want...
:musical_note: You can't always get what you waaant :musical_note:
by David Jay
Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Roth IRA: Hitting mutual fund limits at the beginning
Replies: 16
Views: 1307

Re: Investing in Roth IRA: Hitting mutual fund limits at the beginning

You are trying too hard, it really doesn't matter.

In your early years your portfolio performance is almost completely controlled by the amount of your contributions, not by portfolio gains. Put it all in one fund each year for the next 3-5 years and call it good.