Search found 1023 matches

by bozo
Tue May 19, 2009 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett: the cheaper, the better
Replies: 32
Views: 6132

thenextguy wrote:Bear with me as I flesh out this scenario.

Let's say you decide that your asset allocation is 60/40.

In the long run, this portfolio won't outperform 100% in stocks, but you take the tradeoff for less risk.

After a 20% slide in the market, a 60/40 allocation may be too conservative since the market tends to outperform long-term averages after bear markets.

So lets say that after every 20% slide in the market you move to an 80/20 allocation until the market returns to new highs.

This seems like a good way to protect downside volatility, but be free to ride the upside.
Friend, 40/60 rides these bear markets better than 60/40.

I so love CDs;

Bozo
by bozo
Tue May 19, 2009 5:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with my windfall?
Replies: 4
Views: 1262

Re: What to do with my windfall?

vexed wrote:I've been contacted by a barrister from Africa who is going to cut me in on a sweet deal that will net me over 1 million bucks... I can't say too much about it because the barrister has told me to keep the details of our transaction secret.

Anyway, I'm wondering how I should invest this money. Any suggestions?
There are no "barristers" in Africa.

Give me all your money.

Bozo
by bozo
Tue May 19, 2009 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Transition from I-Bonds to TIPS
Replies: 17
Views: 3435

I assume I'll get banned again, but, whatever.

I Bonds, TIPS, whatever the government issues you, SUCK.

Trust me.

Bozo

TIPS funds suck as well. I now assume the Mods will ban me for another month. Oh, well.
by bozo
Tue May 19, 2009 2:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Taylor, Mel re: VG California Tax-Exempt Money Market
Replies: 12
Views: 3029

OMG, I live in California, and I don't even trust them with my tax refund.

Bozo

PS: Buy California bonds at your peril. Bond funds rate California just about at the bottom, for a reason. Guess what? The only thing of value in California is pizza.
by bozo
Tue May 19, 2009 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where should I put VG's new Int'l Small Cap ETF?
Replies: 20
Views: 3545

Stick with VEIEX. It's down a tad these days. Give it 30 years. I give all the frozen food in the freezer at least that much of a life. Lunardi's Frozen hamburgers get only 30 days before I whack them. Give your Vanguard funds a decent chance.

Bozo
by bozo
Tue May 19, 2009 2:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard GNMA
Replies: 137
Views: 51590

My wife's GNMA threw off zilch last month. I suspect too many folks were piling on. You get what you pay for, and all that.

Bozo
by bozo
Mon May 18, 2009 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bye-Bye To Buy And Hold
Replies: 91
Views: 14518

@Brad:

Misunderestimate is right up there with re-litigate.

Bozo

And, yes, I'm trying to stay solvent.
by bozo
Mon May 18, 2009 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: zz
Replies: 179
Views: 28592

One might argue that there is a "risk premium" in CDs, where you forfeit a certain amount of yield because the bank or thrift is paying a certain amount of insurance.

Of course, the trade-off is the insurance. Not real sure Millenium Bank was a handy vehicle. Or anything with "Stanford" attached to it.

By the way, as a graduate of Stanford, I'm a tad miffed at this Texan using the word "Stanford". I understand they're suing him, but I think he's broke.

Bozo
by bozo
Mon May 18, 2009 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bye-Bye To Buy And Hold
Replies: 91
Views: 14518

Folks, if your portfolio was merely "decimated" you'd be well off. The concept of being "decimated" goes back to the Romans, by the way. Soldiers who cut and ran, in the legions, got their heads lopped off "one by ten". Decimated. One for every ten lopped off. A ten per cent loss, not a biggee.

Decimated is a word most mis-used right up there with "re-litigate". Litigate is suing. "Re-litigate" is suing again. What they mean to say is "re-visit".

I so love William Safire and the New York Times Magazine.

I'm decimated.

Bozo
by bozo
Mon May 18, 2009 9:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fund retirement accounts or emergency fund?
Replies: 15
Views: 2527

This is hilarious. Only a CPA-in training would ask these questions.

Good for you, CPA-in training.

Sweat more in peace, bleed less in war.

Bozo
by bozo
Mon May 18, 2009 9:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your investment history?
Replies: 46
Views: 8100

Re: Not so "Odd."

Taylor Larimore wrote:Hi metabasalt:
Since then all I've read here and in writing by John Bogle and others has reaffirmed my belief in the value of an AA plan, index funds, low fees and staying the course. The odd thing is that I didn't come to this understanding until I was 55.
A similar experience happened to me.
My former employer forced Vanguard upon me. Perforce, kindly, thank you, sirs.

It was the nicest thing they did before firing me.

Which, they did.

Bozo

PS: Laughing all the way to the SEP-IRA bank as it were, I made more after they fired me. It was all about that "overhead" thing. As in, they had it, I didn't.
by bozo
Mon May 18, 2009 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Many Bought Shares High, Sold Low
Replies: 13
Views: 3298

Market-timing was never a particularly good idea.

Just be lazy, and let your Vanguard funds do their thing.

Cash is also good, if in ladders.

The SWR of 4% works nicely.

Stuff goes up, stuff goes down, stuff goes round and round.

If you live long enough, stuff probably goes up. Unless you live in Japan, where stuff always goes down, it seems.

Bozo
by bozo
Mon May 18, 2009 9:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are short term CDs really better?
Replies: 29
Views: 5799

The CMT (that Treasury yield) is the best indicator, in my view. That, and LIBOR.

What the Fed pays, and what banks pay each other, just a thought.

Bozo
by bozo
Mon May 18, 2009 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett: the cheaper, the better
Replies: 32
Views: 6132

Warren and I are on the same page. While I doubt he shops at Lunardi's (after all he's in Omaha, and it's too long to drive for the senior discount), I suspect he understands thrift.

Anybody with the name "Warren" gets my vote. Warren was my Dad's name. It's my middle name. A Swedish tradition. Think of the Vikings. John Johnson of Johnson Johnson.

Bozo

PS: I doubt many kids were named "Warren" last year, given his stock's performance.
by bozo
Mon May 18, 2009 5:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lump sum vs Annuity
Replies: 11
Views: 2926

My Dad didn't give my Mom a choice. He picked the annuity for her, before he died. She's now 93, and glad he picked the annuity. Really glad.

Bozo
by bozo
Mon May 18, 2009 2:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your investment history?
Replies: 46
Views: 8100

I never bought a stock where I couldn't afford to lose.

I usually fulfilled my expectation.

I.e., losing.

Bozo
by bozo
Mon May 18, 2009 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much for retirement - 25 x spending ... and inflation?
Replies: 31
Views: 9057

Ron wrote:
bozo wrote:It's all based on mortality.

Bozo
Thank goodness we will live forever!

- Ron
Ron, if I made it through the 60s and 70s, I suspect I'll make it through the next ten years. The folks at Social Security assume that much. At least that's what they're basing my monthly check on. The present value of my SS direct deposit, if you want to know, is roughly $279,000. Just a bit more than my USAA IRA (I stay below those FDIC limits, after all). Do I trust USAA more than Social Security? Toss up.

Bozo

Upon reflection, USAA gets the tip. Less debt, and more solvent members.
by bozo
Mon May 18, 2009 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much for retirement - 25 x spending ... and inflation?
Replies: 31
Views: 9057

There are calculators which approximate the present value of Social Security payments. It's all based on mortality.

Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nostalgic 1982 CD (certificate of deposit)
Replies: 51
Views: 11130

"Back in the days", in the early 80's, getting 10% plus was no big deal. The "huge deal" was being smart enough to buy a thirty year bond at those rates.

That, my friends, was smart. $200K or so in those bonds would have been nice.

I didn't do it, as I was stupid.

Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 11:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your investment history?
Replies: 46
Views: 8100

@Steve: Rancho Mirage is not too shabby. I suppose you guessed right from time-to-time. Bozo Hi Bozo, We guessed right only about what we did: save, live frugally, take advantage of 403b, have one companion for 34 years and who thinks the same, read, controlling debt and spending, learned from this site, have two properties which we sold last year to get into Rancho Mirage. I averaged about 3% in my 403b investments in the last 25 years. I am lucky that I got 3% growth per year. Its been my experience that achieving wealth is not from the stock market, but from what the individual does constantly over long periods of time. It was a lot of luck, especially escaping the divorce route which ruins many good investment plans. Steve As I said, y...
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nostalgic 1982 CD (certificate of deposit)
Replies: 51
Views: 11130

Surprisingly enough, I actually do get discounts on groceries. Lunardi's has that 5% off on Tuesdays and Thursdays. It's amazing, but all us old farts shop those days. We bump into each others carts and compare stuff. It's fun, in a weird sort of way. Bumper cars for the Rossmoor set, so to speak.

Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much for retirement - 25 x spending ... and inflation?
Replies: 31
Views: 9057

Stated another way, the SWR is 4%. I've tweaked the SWR any way come Sunday, and it always works out the same. The point being, once you're retired, you're gonna die. Bet on it. Take SS at 62. Trust me.

No point in giving all that cash to the kids.

Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: zz
Replies: 179
Views: 28592

Ouch, sscritic spelled it out.

Why, oh why, do folks try to time the market?

Ladder, don't get madder.

Bonds, CDs, stocks, real estate. It's all relative.

Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stress Test: How bad is the recession where you live?
Replies: 10
Views: 2286

Re: Stress Test: How bad is the recession where you live?

mathwhiz wrote:This is a cool interactive map from AP.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/spec ... tress_inde

x/index.html?SITE=YAHOO&SECTION=HOME
My wife is totally unaffected by the recession. She keeps Whole Foods afloat single-handedly.

Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: zz
Replies: 179
Views: 28592

@Dan:

I still submit, folks who are worried about multiple FDIC limits, and/or the basis points thrown off by bond funds, as opposed to individual bonds, have a wee tad too much money on their hands.

Mind you, I'm not opposed to being rich. Being rich I like. A lot.

Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bye-Bye GLD
Replies: 5
Views: 1831

You sold GLD (that rhymes, by the way, sold, gold, whatever) at the tippee top. Good for you. Now, might I suggest (as a contrarian) you "invest" in garden-variety stuff.

Just a thought.

Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 9:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your investment history?
Replies: 46
Views: 8100

Chastemp wrote:I got serious about investing in 1999. That was a bad break for the market, it has yet to recover from the shock waves seemingly created by my attention. :lol:

Chas
I got serious about investing when I was 8. It's all about being obsessive/compulsive. I'm now 62. Stamps, baseball cards, neckerchiefs, lionel trains, you name it. I collected it. Mostly, I collected cash. Cash was the best. To my knowledge, I was the only 8 year old to correct Anchor Savings in Leawood on an error in their compounding of interest.


Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WP: Bogle - Don't Count on your 401k
Replies: 47
Views: 8296

Folks can easily save 15%. Actually, it's not much of a stretch to save 25%. I hear Chinese folks do that routinely.

My wife and I did that every year, year-in-year-out, and now it's paying off. And we're not Chinese.

I'm a lazy guy. Having cash in the bank helps me be lazy.

Lazy, lazy, lazy.

Bozo

PS: Saving a few bucks now is sort of like the military expression "sweat more in peace, bleed less in war". Just a thought.
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 9:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your investment history?
Replies: 46
Views: 8100

@Steve:

Rancho Mirage is not too shabby. I suppose you guessed right from time-to-time.

Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Not A Good Time to Be Middle-Aged"
Replies: 46
Views: 7793

@Harold:

I don't think we had perverts in Leawood, Kansas, back in the 50's. But, it was a fairly tame suburb. We'd actually walk to the closest movie theater (about 5 miles away) and walk to school through the snow.

Now, would I advise our children (who reside in SF, might I add) to let our grand-children mull about as we did in our youth?

Nope. It's a different world.

Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WP: Bogle - Don't Count on your 401k
Replies: 47
Views: 8296

I, for one, never "counted" on my (or my wife's) 401K/IRA to retire upon.

It was just something to add to Social Security, among other things.

The main contributor to our retirement was, and always will be, cash. Bonds. Stuff like that.

Age in bonds, it seldom fails you. And remember, CDs are merely nominal bonds.

Stay below those FDIC limits.

Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your investment history?
Replies: 46
Views: 8100

I suspect most folks posting here are/were obsessive-compulsive savers. You don't see a lot of posts where folks are seeking Suze Orman's "cut up your credit card" advice.

After all, this is not an "I'm broke, help me" forum.

It's more like "I'm rich, help me get richer".

That, I can deal with.

Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative to Pentagon Federal CU
Replies: 17
Views: 4110

@norris:

Not PenFed, but I got the same rate (approx) with USAA back in August of 2006. Five year IRA CD at 5.91%. Loaded up on that one. I'll be just under the FDIC limit when it matures (it's $250K for IRAs, what I call the "old fart special").

I so love compound interest.

Bozo

PS: If you guys keep posting "happy happy" comments with regard to PenFed, I might just drop some money on them. I do like their Article XIII, sub-paragraph 4(g)(3)(iv) "senior citizen" privilege (inside joke). I love reading CD disclosures. It passes the time.
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 8:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are short term CDs really better?
Replies: 29
Views: 5799

Amplify is OK, in the ball-park, but just OK. I just got 3.25% on a 2 year at First Republic. No free ball-point pens, mind you. In addition, the rate dropped 20 basis points AS I WAS SITTING THERE opening the CD. No kidding. It's not as if I were buying the friggin' bank. Actually, First Republic is for sale, if anyone's interested.

Anything these days at or over 3% is pretty good. Amplify, you've got to have $100K+ and go WAAAAY out to get 3%, if I'm reading their ladder correctly.

Not exactly stellar.

Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 7:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car dealers - can someone explain?
Replies: 57
Views: 12009

@Yesosaka:

Regrettably, that's exactly the point. Fewer dealers = less competition. Less competition = higher markups. You want a ride home? Buy from that local dealer with the higher mark-ups.

It's all about trade-offs.

The only question is whether my 1994 Buick will die before me.

Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash in Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 5
Views: 1878

Cash (as in a ladder of CDs) is nice for your balanced IRA. Bonds held within a balanced fund (I'm thinking VBIAX, here) also nice.

It's hard to argue against cash these days.

Or any days, for that matter.

The last I checked, you could spend cash at the drug store.

Stock certificates, well, they don't work as well.

Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 7:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CD with POD beneficiaries = extra FDIC coverage ?
Replies: 10
Views: 2727

@Joe:

Rule-of-thumb: if you have to worry about multiple FDIC insurance limits, you have too much money.

Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: zz
Replies: 179
Views: 28592

Folks, the key is to ladder.

Don't get madder, just ladder.*

Rates are in the tank now, but they'll go up (they can't go down much from here, I think we'd all agree).

Short-term bond funds = OK.

Short-term individual bonds = OK as well.

Short-term CDs = yucky at present, but they'll turn.

If you can get anything at or about 3% these days, consider yourself lucky. Just stay below those FDIC or NCUA limits (or keep plugging in a bond fund owned by more folks than you can count; NAVs will do what they do. Market-timing can be hazardous to your health. If you're paranoid about NAVs, buy CDs. My Mom owns both a fund and CDs, and she never whines.).

Bozo

*I just made that up.
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: if you had only 1 magazine on an 8 hr flight...
Replies: 87
Views: 14643

The Economist. But you have to start reading at the back, with the weekly Obit. Then work your way through the books you'll never read. Then the top news from Sri Lanka, and the latest gossip from the UK. Then flip to the front, for all the Ads for jobs you'd never qualify for.

Well, it's better than the SF Chronicle (which is not saying all that much, these days).

Bozo

PS: Remember to leave the Chronicle in the flap in front of you for the next person. Along with your copy of "Un"Newsweek.
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 6:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Name your top favorite tv shows
Replies: 188
Views: 33501

Colbert (natch)
The Daily Show
anything regarding WWII on the History Channel (since I know how it came out, in the end)

The third choice always puts me to sleep, which is a plus.

Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nostalgic 1982 CD (certificate of deposit)
Replies: 51
Views: 11130

@Stratton:

"Personal inflation rates" tend to be variable. My wife shops at Whole Foods. I shop at Lunardis. Her personal inflation rate is higher than mine (but, then, I shop on Tuesdays and Thursdays, when I get the senior discount).

Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 3:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative to Pentagon Federal CU
Replies: 17
Views: 4110

I will keep my powder dry with respect to PenFed.

Thank you for the comments.

Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car dealers - can someone explain?
Replies: 57
Views: 12009

I agree with "fishndoc/Wayne".

Local dealers are more than just numbers on a page. They sponsor little league teams, they give you rides home, etc. More to the point, you TRUST them. I really, truly, think GM (and Chrysler) are missing this essential point. My mother-in-law (now deceased) used to buy ALL her cars from a Buick dealer many miles away. She trusted the dealer.

Ford gets it. Which is why, in all likelihood, my next car will be a Ford.

As much as I hate the concept.

I so love GM cars. Heck, I'd buy another Oldsmobile if they still built them.

Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is the next bubble ?
Replies: 53
Views: 10297

Karl wrote:
Swivelguy wrote:Holding a treasury to maturity always makes you money...
A hallow victory if a Big Mac costs $10,000 when the bond matures due to hyperinflation.
(a) I think the word is "hollow" and (b) if a Big Mac ever costs $10,000, well, I'm moving to Zimbabwe.

Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nostalgic 1982 CD (certificate of deposit)
Replies: 51
Views: 11130

Yup, I "bought" a 10 year CD for my Daughter at 10%. Back in the days.

She just used it to buy her first house.

She loves the house, by the way.

Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: zz
Replies: 179
Views: 28592

I think it is too funny that folks wrangle over a few basis points here or there.

Bond funds = good. Individual bonds (assuming they're guaranteed by the FDIC, NCUA) = good. CDs are nominals, after all.

Once you hit the big "60", (as in 60 years old), you'd best be thinking capital preservation. A tad of equities doesn't hurt, but "age in bonds" is my rule.

Just my $.02.

Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your investment history?
Replies: 46
Views: 8100

I've been a compulsive saver all my life.

At age 8, I banked all my "lawn-mowing" money at Anchor Savings. When I branched out to "snow-shoveling", I banked that as well. My Mom and Dad bought me my first mutual fund at age 21. I'm now 62. I still have that fund. PS: the real rate of return on that fund is about zero, but we don't want to go there. My Mom (who is 93) thinks it was a super investment.

I collected baseball cards, Boy Scout neckerchiefs, you name it, I collected it.

I have some serious collections.

Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CD with POD beneficiaries = extra FDIC coverage ?
Replies: 10
Views: 2727

John and Mary are frugal savers.

Just a thought.

Bozo

We always named our accounts "John and Joan" since. . . .

my name is John, my wife's name is Joan.
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative to Pentagon Federal CU
Replies: 17
Views: 4110

@Wayne/fishndoc:

I tend to keep my "real money" in places I can trust. Vanguard scores a big +1, anything FDIC or NCUA scores a +1.

I'll keep a lookout on PenFed. The CD doesn't mature until August of 2011, so I have a bit of time, so to speak.

The CD maturing this August, I'm just flopping it into State Farm. The rates aren't stellar, but they have that IRA "senior withdrawal" privilege. Plus, State Farm has been around a lot longer than I have. The last I checked, they didn't need any TARP "funny money".

Bozo
by bozo
Sun May 17, 2009 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative to Pentagon Federal CU
Replies: 17
Views: 4110

@fish/Wayne:

At this stage in my life, so to speak, a few basis points here and there are of marginal import. I've heard too many "negatives" regarding PenFed. Their CD rates are nice, I grant you, if you can ladder out.

Convince me I'm wrong and should trust PenFed. I have this modest CD coming due in 2011 and need some encouragement.

Bozo