Bogleheads.org

bozo

Bear with me as I flesh out this scenario. Let's say you decide that your asset allocation is 60/40. In the long run, this portfolio won't outperform 100% in stocks, but you take the tradeoff for less risk. After a 20% slide in the market, a 60/40 allocation may be too conservative since the market...

bozo

I've been contacted by a barrister from Africa who is going to cut me in on a sweet deal that will net me over 1 million bucks... I can't say too much about it because the barrister has told me to keep the details of our transaction secret. Anyway, I'm wondering how I should invest this money. Any ...

bozo

I assume I'll get banned again, but, whatever.

I Bonds, TIPS, whatever the government issues you, SUCK.

Trust me.

Bozo

TIPS funds suck as well. I now assume the Mods will ban me for another month. Oh, well.

bozo

OMG, I live in California, and I don't even trust them with my tax refund.

Bozo

PS: Buy California bonds at your peril. Bond funds rate California just about at the bottom, for a reason. Guess what? The only thing of value in California is pizza.

bozo

Stick with VEIEX. It's down a tad these days. Give it 30 years. I give all the frozen food in the freezer at least that much of a life. Lunardi's Frozen hamburgers get only 30 days before I whack them. Give your Vanguard funds a decent chance.

Bozo

bozo

My wife's GNMA threw off zilch last month. I suspect too many folks were piling on. You get what you pay for, and all that.

Bozo

bozo

@Brad:

Misunderestimate is right up there with re-litigate.

Bozo

And, yes, I'm trying to stay solvent.

bozo

One might argue that there is a "risk premium" in CDs, where you forfeit a certain amount of yield because the bank or thrift is paying a certain amount of insurance. Of course, the trade-off is the insurance. Not real sure Millenium Bank was a handy vehicle. Or anything with "Stanford" attached to ...

bozo

Folks, if your portfolio was merely "decimated" you'd be well off. The concept of being "decimated" goes back to the Romans, by the way. Soldiers who cut and ran, in the legions, got their heads lopped off "one by ten". Decimated. One for every ten lopped off. A ten per cent loss, not a biggee. Deci...

bozo

This is hilarious. Only a CPA-in training would ask these questions.

Good for you, CPA-in training.

Sweat more in peace, bleed less in war.

Bozo

bozo

Hi metabasalt: Since then all I've read here and in writing by John Bogle and others has reaffirmed my belief in the value of an AA plan, index funds, low fees and staying the course. The odd thing is that I didn't come to this understanding until I was 55. A similar experience happened to me. My f...

bozo

Market-timing was never a particularly good idea. Just be lazy, and let your Vanguard funds do their thing. Cash is also good, if in ladders. The SWR of 4% works nicely. Stuff goes up, stuff goes down, stuff goes round and round. If you live long enough, stuff probably goes up. Unless you live in Ja...

bozo

The CMT (that Treasury yield) is the best indicator, in my view. That, and LIBOR.

What the Fed pays, and what banks pay each other, just a thought.

Bozo

bozo

Warren and I are on the same page. While I doubt he shops at Lunardi's (after all he's in Omaha, and it's too long to drive for the senior discount), I suspect he understands thrift. Anybody with the name "Warren" gets my vote. Warren was my Dad's name. It's my middle name. A Swedish tradition. Thin...

bozo

My Dad didn't give my Mom a choice. He picked the annuity for her, before he died. She's now 93, and glad he picked the annuity. Really glad.

Bozo

bozo

I never bought a stock where I couldn't afford to lose.

I usually fulfilled my expectation.

I.e., losing.

Bozo

bozo

It's all based on mortality. Bozo Thank goodness we will live forever! - Ron Ron, if I made it through the 60s and 70s, I suspect I'll make it through the next ten years. The folks at Social Security assume that much. At least that's what they're basing my monthly check on. The present value of my ...

bozo

There are calculators which approximate the present value of Social Security payments. It's all based on mortality.

Bozo

bozo

"Back in the days", in the early 80's, getting 10% plus was no big deal. The "huge deal" was being smart enough to buy a thirty year bond at those rates.

That, my friends, was smart. $200K or so in those bonds would have been nice.

I didn't do it, as I was stupid.

Bozo

bozo

@Steve: Rancho Mirage is not too shabby. I suppose you guessed right from time-to-time. Bozo Hi Bozo, We guessed right only about what we did: save, live frugally, take advantage of 403b, have one companion for 34 years and who thinks the same, read, controlling debt and spending, learned from this...

bozo

Surprisingly enough, I actually do get discounts on groceries. Lunardi's has that 5% off on Tuesdays and Thursdays. It's amazing, but all us old farts shop those days. We bump into each others carts and compare stuff. It's fun, in a weird sort of way. Bumper cars for the Rossmoor set, so to speak. B...

bozo

Stated another way, the SWR is 4%. I've tweaked the SWR any way come Sunday, and it always works out the same. The point being, once you're retired, you're gonna die. Bet on it. Take SS at 62. Trust me.

No point in giving all that cash to the kids.

Bozo

bozo

Ouch, sscritic spelled it out.

Why, oh why, do folks try to time the market?

Ladder, don't get madder.

Bonds, CDs, stocks, real estate. It's all relative.

Bozo

bozo

mathwhiz wrote:This is a cool interactive map from AP.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/spec ... tress_inde

x/index.html?SITE=YAHOO&SECTION=HOME

My wife is totally unaffected by the recession. She keeps Whole Foods afloat single-handedly.

Bozo

bozo

@Dan:

I still submit, folks who are worried about multiple FDIC limits, and/or the basis points thrown off by bond funds, as opposed to individual bonds, have a wee tad too much money on their hands.

Mind you, I'm not opposed to being rich. Being rich I like. A lot.

Bozo

bozo

You sold GLD (that rhymes, by the way, sold, gold, whatever) at the tippee top. Good for you. Now, might I suggest (as a contrarian) you "invest" in garden-variety stuff.

Just a thought.

Bozo

bozo

I got serious about investing in 1999. That was a bad break for the market, it has yet to recover from the shock waves seemingly created by my attention. :lol: Chas I got serious about investing when I was 8. It's all about being obsessive/compulsive. I'm now 62. Stamps, baseball cards, neckerchief...

bozo

Folks can easily save 15%. Actually, it's not much of a stretch to save 25%. I hear Chinese folks do that routinely. My wife and I did that every year, year-in-year-out, and now it's paying off. And we're not Chinese. I'm a lazy guy. Having cash in the bank helps me be lazy. Lazy, lazy, lazy. Bozo P...

bozo

@Steve:

Rancho Mirage is not too shabby. I suppose you guessed right from time-to-time.

Bozo

bozo

@Harold: I don't think we had perverts in Leawood, Kansas, back in the 50's. But, it was a fairly tame suburb. We'd actually walk to the closest movie theater (about 5 miles away) and walk to school through the snow. Now, would I advise our children (who reside in SF, might I add) to let our grand-c...

bozo

I, for one, never "counted" on my (or my wife's) 401K/IRA to retire upon. It was just something to add to Social Security, among other things. The main contributor to our retirement was, and always will be, cash. Bonds. Stuff like that. Age in bonds, it seldom fails you. And remember, CDs are merely...

bozo

I suspect most folks posting here are/were obsessive-compulsive savers. You don't see a lot of posts where folks are seeking Suze Orman's "cut up your credit card" advice. After all, this is not an "I'm broke, help me" forum. It's more like "I'm rich, help me get richer". That, I can deal with. Bozo

bozo

@norris: Not PenFed, but I got the same rate (approx) with USAA back in August of 2006. Five year IRA CD at 5.91%. Loaded up on that one. I'll be just under the FDIC limit when it matures (it's $250K for IRAs, what I call the "old fart special"). I so love compound interest. Bozo PS: If you guys kee...

bozo

Amplify is OK, in the ball-park, but just OK. I just got 3.25% on a 2 year at First Republic. No free ball-point pens, mind you. In addition, the rate dropped 20 basis points AS I WAS SITTING THERE opening the CD. No kidding. It's not as if I were buying the friggin' bank. Actually, First Republic i...

bozo

@Yesosaka:

Regrettably, that's exactly the point. Fewer dealers = less competition. Less competition = higher markups. You want a ride home? Buy from that local dealer with the higher mark-ups.

It's all about trade-offs.

The only question is whether my 1994 Buick will die before me.

Bozo

bozo

Cash (as in a ladder of CDs) is nice for your balanced IRA. Bonds held within a balanced fund (I'm thinking VBIAX, here) also nice. It's hard to argue against cash these days. Or any days, for that matter. The last I checked, you could spend cash at the drug store. Stock certificates, well, they don...

bozo

@Joe:

Rule-of-thumb: if you have to worry about multiple FDIC insurance limits, you have too much money.

Bozo

bozo

Folks, the key is to ladder. Don't get madder, just ladder.* Rates are in the tank now, but they'll go up (they can't go down much from here, I think we'd all agree). Short-term bond funds = OK. Short-term individual bonds = OK as well. Short-term CDs = yucky at present, but they'll turn. If you can...

bozo

The Economist. But you have to start reading at the back, with the weekly Obit. Then work your way through the books you'll never read. Then the top news from Sri Lanka, and the latest gossip from the UK. Then flip to the front, for all the Ads for jobs you'd never qualify for. Well, it's better tha...

bozo

Colbert (natch)
The Daily Show
anything regarding WWII on the History Channel (since I know how it came out, in the end)

The third choice always puts me to sleep, which is a plus.

Bozo

bozo

@Stratton:

"Personal inflation rates" tend to be variable. My wife shops at Whole Foods. I shop at Lunardis. Her personal inflation rate is higher than mine (but, then, I shop on Tuesdays and Thursdays, when I get the senior discount).

Bozo

bozo

I will keep my powder dry with respect to PenFed.

Thank you for the comments.

Bozo

bozo

I agree with "fishndoc/Wayne". Local dealers are more than just numbers on a page. They sponsor little league teams, they give you rides home, etc. More to the point, you TRUST them. I really, truly, think GM (and Chrysler) are missing this essential point. My mother-in-law (now deceased) used to bu...

bozo

Karl wrote:
Swivelguy wrote:Holding a treasury to maturity always makes you money...
A hallow victory if a Big Mac costs $10,000 when the bond matures due to hyperinflation.

(a) I think the word is "hollow" and (b) if a Big Mac ever costs $10,000, well, I'm moving to Zimbabwe.

Bozo

bozo

Yup, I "bought" a 10 year CD for my Daughter at 10%. Back in the days.

She just used it to buy her first house.

She loves the house, by the way.

Bozo

bozo

I think it is too funny that folks wrangle over a few basis points here or there. Bond funds = good. Individual bonds (assuming they're guaranteed by the FDIC, NCUA) = good. CDs are nominals, after all. Once you hit the big "60", (as in 60 years old), you'd best be thinking capital preservation. A t...

bozo

I've been a compulsive saver all my life. At age 8, I banked all my "lawn-mowing" money at Anchor Savings. When I branched out to "snow-shoveling", I banked that as well. My Mom and Dad bought me my first mutual fund at age 21. I'm now 62. I still have that fund. PS: the real rate of return on that ...

bozo

John and Mary are frugal savers.

Just a thought.

Bozo

We always named our accounts "John and Joan" since. . . .

my name is John, my wife's name is Joan.

bozo

@Wayne/fishndoc: I tend to keep my "real money" in places I can trust. Vanguard scores a big +1, anything FDIC or NCUA scores a +1. I'll keep a lookout on PenFed. The CD doesn't mature until August of 2011, so I have a bit of time, so to speak. The CD maturing this August, I'm just flopping it into ...

bozo

@fish/Wayne: At this stage in my life, so to speak, a few basis points here and there are of marginal import. I've heard too many "negatives" regarding PenFed. Their CD rates are nice, I grant you, if you can ladder out. Convince me I'm wrong and should trust PenFed. I have this modest CD coming due...

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