Search found 222 matches

by brswif00
Tue May 08, 2012 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Rise and Fall of Shiller PE/10
Replies: 46
Views: 18109

Re: The Rise and Fall of Shiller PE/10

The OP was Is this time different, or will we eventually see another single-digit low in PE/10 before it heads back up over a multi-year period again???? What is different this time, so far, and what has kept PE10 in double-digits, is unprecedented money-printing by the Fed. If the Fed keeps this go...
by brswif00
Tue Mar 06, 2012 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To Buy or Rent: Is their a rent/equity formula that helps?
Replies: 17
Views: 1906

Re: To Buy or Rent: Is their a rent/equity formula that hel

The annual rent to purchase price guideline I have read is buy at 10, sell at 20. In between, do what makes you happy and makes sense for you. For example I rent a house with approx market value of $500,000 for $28,800/yr. That is 17.3X the annual rent, so prices here are a bit on the high side (sti...
by brswif00
Mon Feb 20, 2012 7:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Point out the hole in this strategy
Replies: 27
Views: 3478

Re: Point out the hole in this strategy

Selling the whole portfolio seems a bit extreme, and not too tax-efficient. James Stewart does a variation on this and has written about it for many years. He owns individual stocks, and uses broad-market buy and sell triggers. Forgive me for not knowing exactly how it works, but when the market is ...
by brswif00
Sun Feb 05, 2012 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: About to retire firm the fed gov/army ...
Replies: 11
Views: 1215

Re: About to retire firm the fed gov/army ...

One other piece of free advice. Hire an honest and capable fee-only financial adviser. If you hate doing this, make sure it is done right this once, then pay someone you trust to keep it right. You obviously have a complicated situation that probably calls for a professional anyway. If you hate deal...
by brswif00
Sun Feb 05, 2012 11:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: About to retire firm the fed gov/army ...
Replies: 11
Views: 1215

Re: About to retire firm the fed gov/army ...

For one thing, if you don't already live in a state with no income tax, change your US residency before you move to Italy. Otherwise your state may still consider you a resident of that state for tax purposes, and if you have US source income, like a pension or interest, may want to tax you on that ...
by brswif00
Tue Jan 03, 2012 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Returns of all dividend payers
Replies: 3
Views: 628

Re: Returns of all dividend payers

Thank you for the reply, but this is only a small subset of all dividend payers, 51 stocks. I just wonder if all dividend payers, market-weighted, outperform the total market. It's a pretty obvious question, so I think someone must have looked into it. Maybe they underperform, being stodgier as a ru...
by brswif00
Tue Jan 03, 2012 9:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gnod/Gnooks- find a new author you might like
Replies: 4
Views: 527

Re: Gnod/Gnooks- find a new author you might like

Okay I tried the music. Put in Blondie, Funkadelic, and Bad Brains, and got back Dead Milkmen. Not bad, Punk Rock Girl is a song I like. Next choice Agnetha Faltskog, never heard of it, then something called Melt-Banana. Had to check that out, turns out to be a Japanese post-punk noise band. Interes...
by brswif00
Tue Jan 03, 2012 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gnod/Gnooks- find a new author you might like
Replies: 4
Views: 527

Re: Gnod/Gnooks- find a new author you might like

I put in Jeffrey Eugenides, George MacDonald Fraser, and Terry Pratchett. It suggested Bill McKibben. I googled him and see that he writes nonfiction on the environment. I would probably agree with him, but it seems a strange suggestion after I put in three novelists. I was wishing for something rem...
by brswif00
Sat Dec 31, 2011 10:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Returns of all dividend payers
Replies: 3
Views: 628

Returns of all dividend payers

At my gym they keep Bubblevision blaring in the locker room all the time. It's hard to tune it out, so I usually end up thinking investment-related thoughts while I am there. Yesterday my mind wandered to how a total market portfolio that only included dividend paying stocks would do. I don't mean t...
by brswif00
Fri May 13, 2011 7:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buy a house now or rent?
Replies: 21
Views: 2944

Here's a simple rule of thumb. Buy at ten, sell at twenty, in between do what you want. You pay $1070 a month in rent, or $12,840 a year. If you can buy an equivalent property for $128,400 (ten times annual rent) or less, buy. If an equivalent property would cost more than twenty times annual rent, ...
by brswif00
Mon Feb 14, 2011 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do real estate prices fall when interest rates go up?
Replies: 41
Views: 7924

real estate prices would decrease as interest rates increase Yes. The answer to that question is yes. People are willing to pay as much for a house as any bank will loan them. That loan amount is premised on the monthly payment as a percentage of the buyer's income. If the rate is higher, the loan ...
by brswif00
Sun Jan 30, 2011 11:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for a single room humidifier for the winters
Replies: 16
Views: 2231

I had good results with a Germ Guardian, although the big model from Amazon is over your price range, about $128. It uses silver to disinfect, much nicer than others I have tried that were moldy throwaways. The blue light can be annoying, read Amazon reviews for other downsides.
by brswif00
Sun Jan 30, 2011 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for a single room humidifier for the winters
Replies: 16
Views: 2231

I had good results with a Germ Guardian, although the big model from Amazon is over your price range, about $128. It uses silver to disinfect, much nicer than others I have tried that were moldy throwaways. The blue light can be annoying, read Amazon reviews for other downsides.
by brswif00
Sun Jan 09, 2011 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Permanent portfolio....again
Replies: 13
Views: 2724

PPP (permanent portfolio popularity) is based on pure recency. Someone tell me why anyone still employed or under 65 should hold only 25% equity. Paul Because you have a lot of money and would like to keep it that way. HB started with the PP after he made a huge killing being right on time buying a...
by brswif00
Wed Jan 05, 2011 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best way for US citizens to buy UK Gilts?
Replies: 9
Views: 2271

Thanks for all the insight. Your statement on Building Societies and depositor bailouts raised a related question - what is the Uk equivalent of FDIC. Obviously I'll need a deposit account in the Uk also, and I never worry about that here because the FDIC limits are so high, even before the crash. B...
by brswif00
Tue Jan 04, 2011 7:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best way for US citizens to buy UK Gilts?
Replies: 9
Views: 2271

Thanks for the replies. The DMO says Gilt interest is paid gross, with no tax to non-residents. Also it says there is no cap gains (or loss) on disposal of gilts even for UK taxpayers - very nice. They also have a 50-year issue. It must have scarcity value, because the YTM is about 10 bp lower than ...
by brswif00
Mon Jan 03, 2011 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best way for US citizens to buy UK Gilts?
Replies: 9
Views: 2271

Best way for US citizens to buy UK Gilts?

I will be living part-time in the UK, and I want to have some income and savings in pounds to balance those expenses. I am a US citizen, no dual UK citizenship or anything like that. Does anyone know of a low-cost, efficient way for americans to invest in UK bonds? Is there an equivalent of her Maje...
by brswif00
Mon Jan 03, 2011 10:23 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Investment advice for US citizen retiring in UK
Replies: 2
Views: 1034

I don't know the answer to your post, but I have the same question about how a US citizen can buy long term gilts. I'm going to post a separate topic limited to that question.
by brswif00
Wed Sep 22, 2010 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gold and my asset allocation
Replies: 36
Views: 4337

OP should ask himself what he would do if his 15% gold position fell to 5%? Would you buy more to get back to your target allocation? Likewise, if it tripled to 45% of your assets, would you sell back down to 15%, or just impress your friends with your awesome timing? If you are going to rebalance o...
by brswif00
Wed Sep 22, 2010 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement on Hold: American Workers $6 Trillion Short
Replies: 53
Views: 8294

Moderators, are you awake? How is this SSA-bashing not a prohibited political discussion? Whether to increase, reduce, or pay in full promised SS benefits is a purely political decision. I don't hear anyone moaning that the $700 billion/year defense budget is "insolvent", or farm subsidies, or highw...
by brswif00
Mon Aug 16, 2010 7:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me buy a house. Or not buy one.
Replies: 12
Views: 2427

Sounds like for your marriage and your kids it would be better to have a home of your own. If this is a place you could stay in for a number of years, make the jump, is my suggestion. And definitely take the interest free loan, can't beat that. If family loans bring your downpayment to 20% then you ...
by brswif00
Mon Aug 02, 2010 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement investing: the new normal?
Replies: 85
Views: 14175

2bitwise wrote: What are we supposed to do? 2bitwise, there is an 800-page thread on this forum about the Permanent Portfolio. There is a 200-page thread about a new kind of market timing (paraphrasing, I never read that one) where I believe the OP actually reports his trades semi-real-time. There ...
by brswif00
Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: History of France
Replies: 23
Views: 3098

If you don't want to pay for a book, permit me to suggest a visit to your local library. It is not a capsule history by any means, but A Distant Mirror by Barbara Tuchman is a great read. The 14th century was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Mostly depending on whether you got plague an...
by brswif00
Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying Window Shades Online (Cellular Shades)
Replies: 10
Views: 3800

Next Day Blinds was a complete ripoff. I haven't tried the two you mention.
by brswif00
Mon Aug 02, 2010 8:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Suggestions for Visiting the Northwest in December?
Replies: 9
Views: 1578

There is a lot going on in Portland. The food is outstanding, and plenty of shopping. The weather will be wet and miserable, but you must know that since you have been all over the NW. Portland is one of my favorite places, but in the summer. They have the largest rose test garden in the world, Cann...
by brswif00
Thu Jul 29, 2010 7:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is your number?
Replies: 74
Views: 14723

Does anyone else turn this question around and think about at what age you would adjust your number downwards? Time has value, and unlike money, you never know how much time you have. Unimaginable I know, but let's say stocks go nowhere for the next ten years, so S&P 1100 in 2020. Today you think yo...
by brswif00
Thu Jun 10, 2010 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best state in which to retire or declare residency
Replies: 119
Views: 27937

Which state do fellow Bogleheads believe is best when it comes to taxes and cost of living?
Alabama.

I am partial to the Huntsville area (North Alabama for Yankees), but the Gulf coast used to be nice too. Maybe it still will be when they plug the well.
by brswif00
Wed Jun 09, 2010 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How many of you would quit your jobs with $2MM @ 55 yrs old
Replies: 111
Views: 19012

I'm beginning to see desire for early retirement as possibly a reflection of maladjustment to dealing with the present. Maybe your present life is maladjusted to you. Some people do work they truly enjoy, and they should keep doing it. Many more people enjoy doing things that no one will readily pa...
by brswif00
Sun Jun 06, 2010 8:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How many of you would quit your jobs with $2MM @ 55 yrs old
Replies: 111
Views: 19012

It depende how much I dis-like work. I dis-like work a little but for the compensation I am paid, I like it a lot. People tend to think a lot about the risks of running out of money, and very little about the risks of running out of time. If you are close to anyone who became disabled in their 30s ...
by brswif00
Sun Jun 06, 2010 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My problem with P/E 10
Replies: 16
Views: 1807

Why are you using real earnings?

Use nominal PE10, because very few people care what the real fair value of the S&P is, you can't buy it inflation-adjusted. If you are trying to assess the nominal price on the S&P relative to earnings, you should use nominal for both.
by brswif00
Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How many of you would quit your jobs with $2MM @ 55 yrs old
Replies: 111
Views: 19012

Forget 55, I would quit today with $2MM, at 41. Except I don't have the $2mil, and probably will not get there in the next 14 years either, even though I have saved frantically since I started working full-time twenty years ago. It's an unfortunate thing to earn all your lifetime money in essentiall...
by brswif00
Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: is it expensive to travel abroad when you retire?
Replies: 39
Views: 5138

You don't say where you live. If you have a home or apartment in a touristy destination, you might be able to do home exchanges. My girlfriend and I were able to take long vacations in London, Belgium, Denmark and Canada that way, because there was no hotel expense, and we didn't have to eat every m...
by brswif00
Tue May 25, 2010 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying gold? consider history
Replies: 67
Views: 8268

Nisiprius, are you being disingenuous with this question? If gold is the perfect stable store of value, how could U. S. currency lose 2/3 of its value during a period when it was backed by gold? It was market manipulation by governments colluding under the Bretton Woods system. That is not a secret ...
by brswif00
Thu May 20, 2010 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395615

I found this bit of the Hulbert article linked to above interesting. Consider the Permanent Portfolio fund /quotes/comstock/10r!prpfx (PRPFX 39.88, -0.38, -0.94%) , which was created in large part out of Browne's work. Its current target allocations are 25% in gold and silver, 35% in U.S. Treasurys,...
by brswif00
Thu May 20, 2010 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395615

B) recessions are self-limiting and therefore exist only for a relatively short amount of time Maybe this is a direct HB quote, but I'm quite curious how you know that all recessions are self-limiting, and also how you define "relatively short"? Japan is going on a third decade of recession, and th...
by brswif00
Sun May 16, 2010 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying gold? consider history
Replies: 67
Views: 8268

the last time gold jumped up, people who bought at the top where hurting for the next 30 years. Great info. Thanks. Please post again at the top so I will know when to sell. If you don't know when the top is then your advice above is worthless. And if you do think you know, what are you doing on a ...
by brswif00
Fri May 14, 2010 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP
Replies: 10
Views: 2150

TSP is an outstanding retirement plan. It has ultra-low expenses, good broad-based index choices, and an employer match. If your son is saving any money for retirement, he should use the TSP first.
by brswif00
Fri May 14, 2010 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fannie and Freddie
Replies: 48
Views: 5987

There is an embedded 'too big to fail' assumption in this thread. Backtesting is great, but it is only one possible sequence of events that happened, not what had to happen. Imagine, if you can, that the government had not effectively federalized all financial debt in 2008 through the TARP, the Fed,...
by brswif00
Wed May 12, 2010 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to improve on a stock/bond AA
Replies: 27
Views: 2919

Adding T-bills does not seem to work using Bob's spreadsheet. How does it work in real life? The big risk in withdrawal is terrible performance in the first couple of years. Most calculators ignore the option to return to some form of work [or slash expenses, Heaven forbid!] in the event of a crash...
by brswif00
Tue May 11, 2010 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to improve on a stock/bond AA
Replies: 27
Views: 2919

Cash.
by brswif00
Thu May 06, 2010 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing is overrated for large-cap stocks
Replies: 134
Views: 15102

The focus on tiny dollar amounts in this thread is strange. The OP wants to construct an S&P500-equivalent LC portfolio using individual stocks. The arguments about expenses and TLH and time required pale in significance compared to the fact that the OP's 35-stock portfolio will not track the S&P 50...
by brswif00
Mon Apr 12, 2010 5:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I wonder about a portfolio of 100%, 30 year treasuries.
Replies: 34
Views: 5213

Since you only need 3%, and 30-year treasuries are closer to 5%, you can build a bond ladder. That used to be a real staple of conservative money management, but has kind of disappeared since the stock frenzy really got going. Neverknow is about the only poster here who mentions bond ladders regular...
by brswif00
Fri Mar 19, 2010 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Great Depression could (and will eventually) happen again
Replies: 57
Views: 7092

A lot of replies to this post use some variation on the coin toss analogy. And, as others have said, a truly random event doesn't become likelier with each non-occurrence, any more than a coin toss is more likely to yield "heads" because the five or fifty preceding tosses were all "tails." It's infu...
by brswif00
Mon Mar 08, 2010 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are stocks priced about right?
Replies: 17
Views: 2162

I wonder what percentage of S&P December profits were financials? Around 40% at 2007 peak believe. And I wonder what the change would be if mark-to-market rules were still in place and true level of delinquent mortgages were charged off? I'm not saying the market is too high, because I can't predict...
by brswif00
Sat Mar 06, 2010 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: We have gone to all cash (or so we thought)....
Replies: 31
Views: 5928

I think Joppy's question is an excellent place to start, and the answer should be very calming. The first question I would ask is how long a time will you be okay for on that cash? What are your monthly expenses, and how long would your savings cover those expenses? If the answer is 'a long time' as...
by brswif00
Fri Mar 05, 2010 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TLT divs tax question
Replies: 0
Views: 664

TLT divs tax question

My 1099 says TLT pays out ordinary dividends. Do these qualify for state tax exemption because the income is derived from Federal gov't bonds?

Or does the ETF form of ownership cost me the tax benefit of gov't bond interest?

Please no advice to hold TLT in tax-exempt, I can't. Thanks.
by brswif00
Sat Feb 13, 2010 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold as a Currency Hedge
Replies: 63
Views: 13222

Your husbamd should not buy gold at Harrod's as a means of exchanging UKP into USD at some future rate. Harrod's is going to charge a huge markup, and you will get hit again when you sell for USD. You have a hedging problem which could be better addressed with some form of currency options. Or, cons...
by brswif00
Sat Feb 13, 2010 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updated Modification of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 3555
Views: 1395615

The only thing I can say with certainty is we can't put much faith in the CAGR results of the Japanese-style PP due to the fact that 30-yr bonds were unavailable. This is a massive issue due to the added volatility benefits of longer dated bonds. 10-yr bonds are just not a substitute. We just don't...
by brswif00
Fri Feb 12, 2010 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do any other countries issue 30 year gov't bonds?
Replies: 7
Views: 1873

Dave, could you please post a link? My research skills are claerly not of a par with yours, and I would really like to see the quotes for those German and Japanese bonds.

And thanks for the FT link to UK debt.
by brswif00
Thu Feb 11, 2010 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do any other countries issue 30 year gov't bonds?
Replies: 7
Views: 1873

Do any other countries issue 30 year gov't bonds?

It seems as if other major economies don't go beyond 10 year maturities. At least Japan, Germany, and the UK. Does anyone know if anyone else issues 20 or 30 years government bonds?

If not, why do we and no one else? Surely those nations could issue maturities that long if they chose.