Search found 1421 matches

by watchnerd
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: High End Wrist Watches (Gone Crazy)
Replies: 248
Views: 28898

Re: High End Wrist Watches (Gone Crazy)

I wear mechanical watches for the same reason I have a vintage turntable: it's mechanical art, and a reminder of 'how things worked' before integrated circuits, the internet, or even electricity. Humans are clever. That being said, these days, I buy two categories: low-cost beaters and vintage colle...
by watchnerd
Thu Oct 18, 2018 11:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Maserati Experiences
Replies: 47
Views: 5318

Re: Maserati Experiences

This should help: (it’s a great read) https://www.craigslist.org/about/best/esh/6324690044.html?lang=en&cc=us Though it does eventually get a happy ending. This is fantastic. I couldn’t stop laughing. I think this was my favorite line. I'm tired of sitting in it at night drinking and making engine ...
by watchnerd
Thu Oct 18, 2018 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1194
Views: 99228

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I just looked at the price charge for VEU (Total International Vanguard ETF) and in August 2008 before the Financial Crisis kicked in, the ETF traded in the low 48s. Price today: 48.28. That's more than 10 years of earning nothing other than the dividend. Incredible. And the 48 back in 2008 was alr...
by watchnerd
Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1194
Views: 99228

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I don’t have the numbers in front me, but I’m pretty sure 5 years ago those P/E ratios were very similar. Looking at the below chart, over the last 5 years S&P 500 prices have increased by more than (ten year average of) earnings. It is more expensive now than it was five years ago. http://www.mult...
by watchnerd
Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Maserati Experiences
Replies: 47
Views: 5318

Re: Maserati Experiences

What are Bogleheads collective experiences with Maserati cars? I was once next to one for about 15 minutes Atlanta stop and go traffic when I was driving my old Honda Fit. Every minute or so we would go forward a few car lengths. I revved my engine like I wanted to race him. He very purposely ignor...
by watchnerd
Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Maserati Experiences
Replies: 47
Views: 5318

Re: Maserati Experiences

I have a solution to those of you who are a bit reticent about Italian cars but seem to like watches and you know what, these are a lot cheaper and might suit you better: https://www.maseratistore.com/dk_en/watches.html No. No no no no no. Never ever never never buy a watch from a fashion brand. Gu...
by watchnerd
Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Maserati Experiences
Replies: 47
Views: 5318

Re: Maserati Experiences

Maserati will give you semi-exclusivity. Not quite Aston Martin Vitesse, but more so than an S class or Panamera. Don't buy it as your first car. Also, leases tend to be advertised very low miles (like 5k a year) but Maserati will build a lease however you want for miles or years or both. Not sure ...
by watchnerd
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 321
Views: 33757

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

nedsaid wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:06 am
AnalogKid22 wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:32 am
watchnerd wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:10 pm
So bummed at these gains
Almost half of which have been erased today.
Darn it, this thread has jinxed the market! :wink:
Feeling better!
by watchnerd
Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Maserati Experiences
Replies: 47
Views: 5318

Re: Maserati Experiences

Ferrari repair prices with the added bonus of double digit depreciation every year. No way sorry. Buy a Ferrari or Lamborghini instead. I'm more in the market for a sport coupe / GT than a supercar. An Aston Martin would probably be the next alternative. But I've heard they have crappy reliability.
by watchnerd
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Maserati Experiences
Replies: 47
Views: 5318

Maserati Experiences

I'm curious about people's experiences with Maserati.

My local dealer is having an incentive sale and I've always liked the looks.

What are Bogleheads collective experiences with Maserati cars?
by watchnerd
Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 321
Views: 33757

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

So bummed at these gains
by watchnerd
Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does international really buy you diversification?
Replies: 43
Views: 4472

Re: Does international really buy you diversification?

MJW wrote:
Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:49 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:40 pm
Does anyone know what statistics feel like?
Sort of a warm, tingling feeling.
Kind of scratchy, is my experience.
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?
Replies: 71
Views: 5671

Re: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?

My passive income is much more than I need to live on so I always have a surplus to invest. I think I would feel very differently - and arrange my assets very differently - if I knew I had to sell assets to live off of. Then I would want to hold bonds and/or cash so that I never had to sell low. Ri...
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?
Replies: 71
Views: 5671

Re: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?

Carol88888 wrote:
Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:21 pm
What's wrong with wanting to make as money as possible? Don't tell me it's greedy. That's just a subjective value judgement.

I am 100% stocks. If it goes down, I buy more.

Works for me.
If you're retired, how do you buy more?

With your social security check?
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 78
Views: 8984

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

Sounds like it a better fit for institutions. I don't think most individual investors have timeframes where they can wait 5 years....and even then, it sounds like 'early returns'. Vanguard's multifactor fund is tailor made for individual investors, albeit sophisticated ones or investors using a fin...
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4640

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

The irony of the Nobel for Prof. Fama and EMH, is Prof. Shiller receiving a Nobel for CAPE at the same time. The Nobel committee often balances its prizes in just that way. Btw Shiller did not receive his Nobel for CAPE10 And I will ask what is the contradiction between EMH and CAPE? CAPE makes no ...
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 78
Views: 8984

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

So the multi-factor fund didn't seem to do any better in the recent correction than the standard TSM fund. What's the point of these again if they don't either give better return or reduce risk? VFMF is much heavier in small caps than TSM, small caps have had a hot run and were kneecapped in this d...
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4640

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

If the U.S. market is efficient, what caused it to go down much of last week? Do not confuse efficiency with explainability. To my mind it is not terribly efficient togo down or up 2%. And I would think they should go together. Otherwise it is a story of sparrows getting spooked and slowly coming b...
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4640

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

If the U.S. market is efficient, what caused it to go down much of last week? Do not confuse efficiency with explainability. To my mind it is not terribly efficient togo down or up 2%. And I would think they should go together. Otherwise it is a story of sparrows getting spooked and slowly coming b...
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?
Replies: 71
Views: 5671

Re: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?

Artsdoctor wrote:
Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:19 pm
Above all, his focus has been on avoiding the need to buy cat food to eat because you've invested badly.
Was there a time when cat food was cheaper than it is now?

Because my cat's food is $0.43 / oz or $6.88 / lb.

I can buy hamburger cheaper than that, let alone beans and rice.
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4640

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

The EMH is not an argument from authority. It has its own internal logic. Academics are not stupid. The fact that it has internal consistency does not make it true. The internal consistency may be useful in the academic world; papers can be published and people can get tenure thanks to it; but it d...
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4640

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

As somebody with a brother who teaches economics (who tends to have worse investment returns than I do, mainly due to analysis paralysis) and has engineering coworkers, who tend to try to 'solve the algorithm' before committing resources, I think the stock market is particularly vexing for many smar...
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation
Replies: 15
Views: 867

Re: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation

Thanks all. Money is fungible, but only to a degree. For example, money in a tax-deferred retirement account — at least in the US — cannot easily be accessed to pay for college. Yes, same in the UK - which was my point about liquidity, I guess. '4. How resilient is my portfolio to exogenous shocks?...
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation
Replies: 15
Views: 867

Re: Savings and investments - overall household view of asset allocation

Cash 34.2% Property 38.5% Bonds 3.2% Equities 24.1% Is there sense in looking at one's assets in this broader way? Percentages by themselves don't necessarily mean a lot as they don't tell us how resilient that portfolio is relative to inflation and your life costs. Extreme examples: If your net wo...
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Market Factors
Replies: 11
Views: 909

Re: Bond Market Factors

Still wary about MLP's. They want to spend 500 billion on added pipes. How can they pay dividends at the same time ? Might be a lower dividend period. For a period in the early 00's, when normal equity indexes flat lined for years and commodities were booming, I owned a basket of MLPs, and then eve...
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Public companies as proxies for capitalism as a system
Replies: 9
Views: 806

Re: Public companies as proxies for capitalism as a system

Private companies as a portion of the economy vary immensely across different countries and isn't that proportional to national GDP. FRED has data on the stock market cap to GDP ratio for many countries; here is Germany: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDDM01DEA156NWDB And here is USA: https://f...
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 78
Views: 8984

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

AE81 wrote:
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:02 am

I suspect much of Managed Payout’s underperformance is due to the international holdings. Adding Lifestrategy Moderate Growth to the chart might show that.
It might be true, but it's also post hoc sample selection bias.
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4640

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

That's what makes the "H" in EMH a hypothesis. If it were "proven" (a difficult term to use considering most scientific research will never use the term proven but will only speak in terms of statistical significance, which means that there's always some percentage chance that results you got were ...
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4640

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

as Karl Popper noted, scientific statements must be falsifiable to be meaningful. Why are you trying to apply scientific standards of proof to mass market economics? Behavioral finance has shown our minds are optimized for things other than finance and which often lead to "bad" or irrational financ...
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does international really buy you diversification?
Replies: 43
Views: 4472

Re: Does international really buy you diversification?

Say the Dollar declines against other currencies by 20%. All other things remaining equal (which they won't - but that's another discussion), would we expect to see international stocks go up by ~20%? If the international fund is unhedged, yes. And of course that gets reversed when currencies swing...
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need
Replies: 195
Views: 21495

Re: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need

I think the agencies issuing bonds understand it fully. But if investors (and possibly rating agencies) don't, then the market cannot be efficient. The 'investors' in Treasuries are mostly not individuals. Are you seriously suggesting the Bank of Japan, a major foreign holder of US Treasuries, does...
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market decline in 2019 ?
Replies: 73
Views: 6480

Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

+1. You need to have an AA that fits your risk tolerance. A long term investor knows that there will be major drops in market from time to time and has an AA that he/she is most comfortable with in up and down markets. Find an AA that allows you to be more comfortable during down markets. Down mark...
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does international really buy you diversification?
Replies: 43
Views: 4472

Re: Does international really buy you diversification?

If international had recently outperformed domestic nobody would be asking this topic's question.

Bogleheads are not immune to performance chasing behaviors.

I'm having recollections to all the REIT discussions 'back in the day'.

Or commodities.
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 78
Views: 8984

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

So the multi-factor fund didn't seem to do any better in the recent correction than the standard TSM fund. What's the point of these again if they don't either give better return or reduce risk? VFMF is much heavier in small caps than TSM, small caps have had a hot run and were kneecapped in this d...
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Public companies as proxies for capitalism as a system
Replies: 9
Views: 806

Re: Public companies as proxies for capitalism as a system

Private companies as a portion of the economy vary immensely across different countries and isn't that proportional to national GDP. FRED has data on the stock market cap to GDP ratio for many countries; here is Germany: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDDM01DEA156NWDB And here is USA: https://f...
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 78
Views: 8984

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

So the multi-factor fund didn't seem to do any better in the recent correction than the standard TSM fund. What's the point of these again if they don't either give better return or reduce risk? VFMF is much heavier in small caps than TSM, small caps have had a hot run and were kneecapped in this d...
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Put Options
Replies: 37
Views: 2172

Re: Put Options

Put options are fun.

Especially if you and a friend take opposite sides of a position -- like a geeky financial bar bet.

The couple hundred bucks I've lost on puts were amazingly valuable object lessons in the difficulty of market timing.
by watchnerd
Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Public companies as proxies for capitalism as a system
Replies: 9
Views: 806

Re: Public companies as proxies for capitalism as a system

Private companies as a portion of the economy vary immensely across different countries and isn't that proportional to national GDP. FRED has data on the stock market cap to GDP ratio for many countries; here is Germany: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDDM01DEA156NWDB And here is USA: https://fr...
by watchnerd
Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: whats the consensus on muni % allocation
Replies: 9
Views: 1221

Re: whats the consensus on muni % allocation

I'm my taxable account, I'm 50/50 spit between munis and Treasuries.

For Treasuries, I use a total market fund, but for munis, I use VWIUX.

I think I read somewhere that Jack Bogle does a 50/50 split between munis and either Treasuries or TBM.
by watchnerd
Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on
Replies: 78
Views: 8984

Re: Vanguard factor funds slow to catch on

So the multi-factor fund didn't seem to do any better in the recent correction than the standard TSM fund.

What's the point of these again if they don't either give better return or reduce risk?
by watchnerd
Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Market Factors
Replies: 11
Views: 909

Re: Bond Market Factors

I think the Fed policy to normalize rates is most important. As Bill Gross once said, the economy cannot function like this. Looking to the horizon I think the 2020's will be a buyer's market. FFR around 3.5%, Agency bonds, LT bond funds, dividend funds, and REIT's all looking at very good yields. ...
by watchnerd
Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?
Replies: 71
Views: 5671

Re: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?

So, it seems to me that only group 2b are the ones that should give a hoot about a bear market in stocks. There must be a lot of 2b's around here. Everybody else should have something better to do with their time, yes? I think there is another category: 2a) scenario types who want to pile up as muc...
by watchnerd
Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market decline in 2019 ?
Replies: 73
Views: 6480

Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

There is simply no way to know when a better time than today is to buy. https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2018/10/10/105499667-4ED4-FM-A-BLOCK-2-101018.600x337.jpg?v=1539207457 https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/10/fundstrats-tom-lee-sees-a-rally-so-buy-value-stocks-on-the...
by watchnerd
Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market decline in 2019 ?
Replies: 73
Views: 6480

Re: Market decline in 2019 ?

By the way, did you see bitcoin might be losing it's "gold" status in the eyes of investors -- i.e. bonds and stocks tanked and gold was up but bitcoin was in the tanking camp. I don't think Bitcoin ever really had such status amongst serious investors. I don't see pensions buying bitcoin. It had s...
by watchnerd
Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need
Replies: 195
Views: 21495

Re: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need

I think this thread shows us how complicated the bond market can be. Because many investors (including me) don't fully understand how the band market works, it is an inefficient market, and leads to incorrect pricing. Also, I believe even the rating agencies are subject to misreading risk. So, I av...
by watchnerd
Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need
Replies: 195
Views: 21495

Re: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need

I hold Total Treasuries Market index fund as my core bond holding.

I just wish Vanguard or somebody made a version that had a cheaper ER.
by watchnerd
Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?
Replies: 71
Views: 5671

Re: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?

FelixTheCat wrote:
Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:20 am
The only people that should worry are the ones who don’t plan and save.
Well, that's over half of the USA households.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/15/bankrat ... thing.html
by watchnerd
Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?
Replies: 84
Views: 4274

Re: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?

these are good points, but do you think that on Wednesday morning people suddenly thought that interest rates were going to be significantly higher than whant they had thought up to then? If so, why? IPCC global warming report Right. So today I guess people are finding inaccuracies in it since stoc...
by watchnerd
Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?
Replies: 84
Views: 4274

Re: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?

Nisiprius post is very odd to me. He speaks of the dividend discount theory and rising rates. Yet rates did not rise suddenly overnight to justify the drop on Wednesday morning in US stock prices. The market doesn't have to look backwards or react to what happens. The market can look forward, i.e. ...
by watchnerd
Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?
Replies: 84
Views: 4274

Re: Does it make sense to consider that stocks are 'on sale' when there's a correction?

I would say the exact opposite. For a young investor, the whole idea that present day values have any predictive worth as an indicator of future returns is almost entirely irrelevant if she has decades until retirement. The price today has very little bearing on valuation and returns 20-30 years fr...