Search found 1740 matches

by wolf359
Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: House centipedes in an apartment
Replies: 18
Views: 1099

Re: House centipedes in an apartment

House centipedes are predators. If you have them, there are probably other bugs in the environment that they're feeding on. They don't reproduce that fast, so if you get rid of them, you might develop other infestation problems. They need moisture to survive. Get rid of all water leaks. Use a dehumi...
by wolf359
Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best place to park commission
Replies: 2
Views: 298

Re: Best place to park commission

I'd strongly urge you to consult with a tax accountant to make sure you get proper advice on taxes. Free internet forums may not give you the best or most accurate advice, and you'll pay more for the "free" advice if you mess it up. That caveat aside, I believe you can use the SEP IRA for self-emplo...
by wolf359
Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "barbell" equity strategy -- 1991 to 2016
Replies: 13
Views: 1140

Re: The "barbell" equity strategy -- 1991 to 2016

This is difficult to implement and to test. They appear to be using subindustries rather than the S&P Primary Sectors. It's unclear how they're measuring the 129 subindustries they're tracking, or how they're measuring the annual performance of the portfolio. Since the subindustries are not tracked ...
by wolf359
Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy being killed?
Replies: 59
Views: 4459

Re: Is the 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy being killed?

This opinion article sort of meanders all over the place. He talks about Trump economic policy, iPhones, growth stocks, interest rates, index investing, and "black hole investing" (he's being slangy-- it makes sense in context.) However, his primary point isn't about the 60/40 portfolio allocation. ...
by wolf359
Mon Sep 16, 2019 7:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Too Late To Get Back Into Stocks?
Replies: 115
Views: 9031

Re: Too Late To Get Back Into Stocks?

Last month, after one too many tweets that costing me at closing time, I decided to bail out of stocks just above DOW 26,000, at least until this trade war gets settled. Now that the Dow is above 27,000 and very close to the 52-week high I'm not too keen on testing my luck and the market's ability ...
by wolf359
Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Too Late To Get Back Into Stocks?
Replies: 115
Views: 9031

Re: Too Late To Get Back Into Stocks?

Hi, The 15x give me a 80-20 (equities to fixed income portfolio) in this case size matters. You are even more cautious in your own way than me if I read you correctly. I also don't rely in any way upon social payments, in addition any other potential income from business liquidation etc is not coun...
by wolf359
Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Too Late To Get Back Into Stocks?
Replies: 115
Views: 9031

Re: Too Late To Get Back Into Stocks?

I just realized I never answered your original question, posted in the title. No, it is not too late to get back into stocks. Your current loss of about 10% of your equity position is probably only about a 3.5% loss of your overall portfolio. The only reason you have that loss is because you sold. H...
by wolf359
Fri Sep 13, 2019 7:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Too Late To Get Back Into Stocks?
Replies: 115
Views: 9031

Re: Too Late To Get Back Into Stocks?

it'd be very hard for me to passively watch a 10%-25% drop of my stock portfolio. Therefore, I really need to limit my at risk dollars at the cost of lower returns over the long run. Yes. If it would bother you that much to watch only a 10% drop in your stock portfolio, that basically says you shou...
by wolf359
Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Too Late To Get Back Into Stocks?
Replies: 115
Views: 9031

Re: Too Late To Get Back Into Stocks?

Last month, after one too many tweets that costing me at closing time, I decided to bail out of stocks just above DOW 26,000, at least until this trade war gets settled. Now that the Dow is above 27,000 and very close to the 52-week high I'm not too keen on testing my luck and the market's ability ...
by wolf359
Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Using "dry powder" to buy the dips for a mostly buy-and-holder
Replies: 17
Views: 2817

Re: Using "dry powder" to buy the dips for a mostly buy-and-holder

Hello. I am wanting to be a generally buy-and-holder with a diversified portfolio of Equity ETFs- large cap growth, large cap blend, small cap value, small cap blend, some REIT, international including emerging markets in addition to bonds. I would like to have some "dry powder" for bear markets an...
by wolf359
Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: First car accident ever, now what?
Replies: 30
Views: 1982

Re: First car accident ever, now what?

Repeat to yourself, "I'm so glad we have Erie Insurance and not USAA." Given that, don't trust your insurance company. USAA is absolutely the worst insurance company who will try to defraud you given the chance. I have had nothing but excellent experiences with USAA for auto and for home owners cla...
by wolf359
Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Overshooting Your Number and Discounting Your Starting Balance
Replies: 13
Views: 1308

Re: Overshooting Your Number and Discounting Your Starting Balance

Do you realize that this is just another way of asking what SWR that people are using? If you had calculated your number by using 4% as your SWR, and you give yourself a 25% buffer, then your new SWR is 3%. I don't think that I'm asking what one's withdrawal rate is. It could be 8% (of whatever num...
by wolf359
Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Overshooting Your Number and Discounting Your Starting Balance
Replies: 13
Views: 1308

Re: Overshooting Your Number and Discounting Your Starting Balance

Do you realize that this is just another way of asking what SWR that people are using?

If you had calculated your number by using 4% as your SWR, and you give yourself a 25% buffer, then your new SWR is 3%.
by wolf359
Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Otar ORC "Tactical Investing" Anyone using this software?
Replies: 18
Views: 1621

Re: Otar ORC "Tactical Investing" Anyone using this software?

Thanks for the replies. I’ll check those two fee SW mentioned above. I guess I trust Jim Otar, experienced engineer CFP Better than the free SW trying to bring in customers for Complete financial planning. He has an extensive free user manual and a book “Unveiling The Retirement Myth”. If you check...
by wolf359
Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2 Misleading Fidelity Target Date Funds
Replies: 55
Views: 3768

Re: 2 Misleading Fidelity Target Date Funds

I’ve seen the Frontline piece, but remain unclear about how it applies to these two families of Fidelity funds. Perhaps any company’s offering an actively-managed fund shocks your conscience, but if so that seems a general complaint you have about the industry and has nothing to do with deceptive b...
by wolf359
Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% Withdrawal Rate Recommended by US News Columnist
Replies: 141
Views: 11168

Re: 5% Withdrawal Rate Recommended by US News Columnist

8% is fine if you can get a guaranteed return of 12% with Dave Ramsey's "smart"vestor pros :P Dave Ramsey does not use the word "guaranteed." He says that you are responsible for the decisions and the outcome. If you don't get 12% return, it's YOUR fault. But he still pitches that getting 12% retur...
by wolf359
Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying off mortgage early - am I thinking about this right?
Replies: 112
Views: 9365

Re: Paying off mortgage early - am I thinking about this right?

Bonds are not the same as paying down your mortgage. Once you have a mortgage (assume 30 years left, 3% rate), investing X on a 30 year bonds at 3% is exactly the same as adding X to the payment of the mortgage Although the math is correct in terms of your return, the underlying assets are not. I c...
by wolf359
Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules
Replies: 199
Views: 13609

Re: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules

Agreed - unless the FIRED early folks 'needed' to pull 4% (or more) from their portfolio. Don't forget that the FIREd folks are retiring voluntarily. They picked the expense target and chose when to retire. If they weren't being total idiots about it, then they have flexibility built into both thei...
by wolf359
Thu Sep 05, 2019 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules
Replies: 199
Views: 13609

Re: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules

I would also add (and this is not news) that human behavior and psychology would make it highly unlikely that a retiree with an 80/20 portfolio who went through a severe stock downturn (2008 anyone?) would continue to pull the same % from the portfolio each year--regardless of what the predictive c...
by wolf359
Thu Sep 05, 2019 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules
Replies: 199
Views: 13609

Re: Kitces: The Problem with FIREing at 4% and the Need for Flexible Spending Rules

I would also add (and this is not news) that human behavior and psychology would make it highly unlikely that a retiree with an 80/20 portfolio who went through a severe stock downturn (2008 anyone?) would continue to pull the same % from the portfolio each year--regardless of what the predictive c...
by wolf359
Thu Sep 05, 2019 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 fund people how are you feeling?
Replies: 112
Views: 12568

Re: Feeling Good.

Cody: I took a look today at Morningstar's 3-year returns for the U.S. Market (12.43%) vs. U.S. Small-Value (2.69%). http://news.morningstar.com/index/indexReturn.html Yes. I'm feeling good. :sharebeer Best wishes. Taylor Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "The beauty of owning the market is that you el...
by wolf359
Thu Sep 05, 2019 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying off mortgage early - am I thinking about this right?
Replies: 112
Views: 9365

Re: Paying off mortgage early - am I thinking about this right?

Interesting and well-timed discussion. Not to humble brag, but I was just realizing that, hypothetically, if we were to liquidate all taxable accounts and throw in all savings, we could probably just barely pay off the mortgage balance. As a result, all sorts of thought exercises started coming to ...
by wolf359
Thu Sep 05, 2019 8:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying off mortgage early - am I thinking about this right?
Replies: 112
Views: 9365

Re: Paying off mortgage early - am I thinking about this right?

Basically what you are saying is that the remaining mortgage is relatively small compared to your net worth and at this point in your life you are OK with losing some potential growth on that small amount so that you can have an increase in cashflow. You are rich enough to forgo some small gains. I...
by wolf359
Wed Sep 04, 2019 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those who have bonds in taxable, why and which ones?
Replies: 42
Views: 3326

Re: For those who have bonds in taxable, why and which ones?

I keep an emergency fund in a high yield bank account. I also use my taxable account as an extended emergency fund. To make sure there is a sufficient balance for extended emergencies (like job loss), I maintain a bond position in taxable. This bond position is a fixed dollar amount, rather than a p...
by wolf359
Wed Sep 04, 2019 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you consider your house as part of your bond portfolio?
Replies: 52
Views: 2241

Re: Do you consider your house as part of your bond portfolio?

I think of it as a separate asset class -- real estate. It's not a traditional investment in the sense of an asset in a retirement portfolio, but it is certainly stores value. If you like, you can also incorporate imputed rent as an implied return. I'm not sure I agree with this, either. A house th...
by wolf359
Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Have You Planned for Sequence of Return Risk (SOR)?
Replies: 167
Views: 9301

Re: How Have You Planned for Sequence of Return Risk (SOR)?

This is BOGLEheads.org isn't it ? https://www.aarp.org/money/investing/info-2017/financial-advice-jack-bogle.html I didn't see anything in that article that was contradictory to the advice here. Was there a specific point? Keep in mind that the tagline is "Investing Advice Inspired by Jack Bogle." ...
by wolf359
Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Have You Planned for Sequence of Return Risk (SOR)?
Replies: 167
Views: 9301

Re: How Have You Planned for Sequence of Return Risk (SOR)?

When you're below 50% of the original portfolio (regardless of how long it took), you're in the danger zone. The 1966 person hit 50% in 1974 based on a 60/40 portfolio. That portfolio fails. It sounds like your rule of thumb is using the inflation-adjusted portfolio balance, since the nominal balan...
by wolf359
Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Have You Planned for Sequence of Return Risk (SOR)?
Replies: 167
Views: 9301

Re: How Have You Planned for Sequence of Return Risk (SOR)?

If your portfolio balance is ever 50% of the starting portfolio balance within the first 10 years, then you are facing an adverse Sequence of Returns risk event. If your portfolio balance is 50% of the starting portfolio balance within the first 5 years, then you have a very high likelihood that th...
by wolf359
Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Have You Planned for Sequence of Return Risk (SOR)?
Replies: 167
Views: 9301

Re: How Have You Planned for Sequence of Return Risk (SOR)?

These are options that I've identified for SORR. I plan to use some, but not all of these. You can ELIMINATE the Sequence of Returns Risk by: 1) Using income sources that are not based on stock market returns, such as: - dividends - interest - rents - pensions - Social Security - annuity payments - ...
by wolf359
Thu Aug 29, 2019 8:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Have You Planned for Sequence of Return Risk (SOR)?
Replies: 167
Views: 9301

Re: How Have You Planned for Sequence of Return Risk (SOR)?

Keep in mind in 2009 a new retiree account has been significantly depleted. His initial SWR of 4% is now 5,6,or 7% of his already depleted portfolio unless they can reduce expenses over the previous year. You say its hugely beneficial to retirees but I'm not following it. Maybe in retrospect, but f...
by wolf359
Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I looking at this right a 80/20 portfolio had 99% of it's money back by the end of 2010 with the three fund portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 1399

Re: Am I looking at this right a 80/20 portfolio had 99% of it's money back by the end of 2010 with the three fund portf

CAUTION: Past performance is not indicative of future results. An 80/20 portfolio is very aggressive. Selecting an 80/20 portfolio and thinking that it is safe because back in 2008, it had recovered within two years is not the correct way to go. There was no way to predict whether or not any of the ...
by wolf359
Mon Aug 26, 2019 2:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Book case with real wood
Replies: 9
Views: 694

Re: Book case with real wood

Is building it yourself an option? That's the cheapest way to go if you have any woodworking skills. There's not much to a bookcase. Otherwise, I'd suggest looking at garage sales and estate sales. Older furniture is very high quality and can be purchased for a song now. There's simply too much of i...
by wolf359
Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: FIXED! (hopefully) How to stop Bing (Windows 10, Chrome); want Google at start
Replies: 4
Views: 312

Re: How to stop Bing (Windows 10, Chrome); want Google at start

When running Chrome, click on the three vertical dots on the top right of the Window. This lets you change customizations. Click on Settings. Scroll down to "Search Engine" and change that to the search engine of your choice. I switch back and forth between Google and Bing. While Google is the super...
by wolf359
Thu Aug 22, 2019 10:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Multi Streams of Income to Build Wealth?
Replies: 44
Views: 2568

Re: Multi Streams of Income to Build Wealth?

I’ve read that it is important to have multiple streams of income to aid in becoming wealthy. So bogleheads what are some of your income sources? Is it necessary to have multiple streams or is my megacorp salary enough to become wealthy? I'd suggest that multiple streams of income are required to h...
by wolf359
Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prepare for Recession?
Replies: 74
Views: 9827

Re: Prepare for Recession?

There has been a lot of talk recently about the upcoming recession. The rumor is that a recession is coming in the next 12 months. So do we need to do anything to prepare for it? All I can think of is to stack up emergency funds because if we lose jobs, it will be difficult to find a new one. Anybo...
by wolf359
Thu Aug 22, 2019 10:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 59.5 is approaching and need advice
Replies: 9
Views: 1064

Re: 59.5 is approaching and need advice

I moved a Fidelity 401(k) via check as the OP described. 1. Move most 401(k) equity assets into cash or bonds. 2. Same day move in other accounts that have fixed income into the similar equity assets that were moved out of the 401(k). 3. Get the check and deposit it. I think I requested a check on ...
by wolf359
Wed Aug 21, 2019 2:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to invest 50k today?
Replies: 12
Views: 1197

Re: Where to invest 50k today?

I have traded individual stocks. It is possible for those to go to zero and stay there. While it is possible for the three-fund portfolio to go to zero, it is extremely unlikely. A single ship may well sink, but not all 3,601 ships in VTSAX. Therefore, I have strong confidence in an index strategy. ...
by wolf359
Wed Aug 21, 2019 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimating social security in the future
Replies: 18
Views: 1305

Re: Estimating social security in the future

The current year Social Security Annual Trustees report official blog post "The Future Financial Status of the Social Security Program," written by the Chief Actuary of the Social Security Administration (source: https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v70n3/v70n3p111.html) starts out with the following...
by wolf359
Tue Aug 20, 2019 2:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for opinions on "million in" idea...
Replies: 7
Views: 1054

Re: Looking for opinions on "million in" idea...

If you're truly nervous about the market, then you want your portfolio to be as simple and automated as possible, with no decisions, rebalancing, or potential market timing errors. Put $1 million in Vanguard LifeStrategy Conservative Growth (VSCGX). Put the remainder of the $300,000 in bonds/cash. V...
by wolf359
Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are there advantages to being married to a teacher?
Replies: 111
Views: 6899

Re: Are there advantages to being married to a teacher?

just curious if anyone knows of any advantages to having a teacher for a spouse. i would say the insurance, time off and pension are benefits. any others that i am missing. i've read some folks were able to take more risks in their career knowing their spouse had a steady and, depending on region, ...
by wolf359
Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are we financially okay?
Replies: 64
Views: 8207

Re: Are we financially okay?

He'd still have 1.2M in cash after paying it off. How much flexibility do you need, really? If he were cash poor I'd totally agree with you but mathematically it makes no sense to have 2.5 times your mortgage balance in cash earning half of what you are paying on your loan. That’s your opinion. Mor...
by wolf359
Mon Aug 19, 2019 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are we financially okay?
Replies: 64
Views: 8207

Re: Are we financially okay?

If OP spends $14k/month, and assuming cash is returning 2%, that $2 million reserve will last 13 years. That should be sufficient time for wife to find a job. If the cash reserve runs out, OP has an additional $2 million in stocks that will be compounding during that timeframe. And OP still has a j...
by wolf359
Mon Aug 19, 2019 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are we financially okay?
Replies: 64
Views: 8207

Re: Are we financially okay?

Your outflow ($14k/month) exceeds your inflow ($200k salary) You are not ok You need to get that $14k/month down to less than $10k / month. You didn’t provide a budget but I would suggest that you can’t afford your house I'm not sure I understand this logic. OP has $2 million in cash. If OP spends ...
by wolf359
Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kindergarten lunches
Replies: 59
Views: 4355

Re: Kindergarten lunches

I made bento boxes for my kids. They look fancy, but they're as easy to make as sandwiches. You pre-assemble the ingredients for the week, then simply arrange them in the box. Here's examples of what I mean. https://www.google.com/search?q=bento+box+kids+lunch&safe=strict&rls=com.microsoft:en-US:IE-...
by wolf359
Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: what to buy in this market
Replies: 15
Views: 1735

Re: what to buy in this market

Any specific funds/stocks/investment recommendations in the current casino type market with swings triggered by tweets from one person. You paint a vivid picture of the stock market. Here's an alternate view: Imagine a boy walking his dog. The boy represents earnings, and the dog represents the sto...
by wolf359
Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 25541

Re: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap

Let's all go buy SCV then. I tilt to SCV. When there have been recent posts on Bogleheads talking about how SCV was underperforming, I interpreted it as SCV is just out of favor right now. Larry Swedroe is saying the same thing. I'm not buying any more than my asset allocation calls for, but I am k...
by wolf359
Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: With Rates Falling Should U Buy Annuity?
Replies: 18
Views: 1871

Re: With Rates Falling Should U Buy Annuity?

I am the OP. Yes it would be a SPIA, if purchased. I am considering purchasing it because it would pay about 45% of a fixed debt for the next twenty years. Not worried about inflation. Purchasing the annuity will leave me 95% of my investable assets. My thought is I can buy the annuity and not have...
by wolf359
Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Beyond Meat Burger? Do you like?
Replies: 84
Views: 5707

Re: Beyond Meat Burger? Do you like?

...Not a fan. To say they are nearly indistinguishable is simply to say you’ve never eaten a quality burger with freshly ground meat... wolf359 say it was a "gourmet hamburger joint." I would give serious consideration to the possibility that there is a flavor in Impossible Burgers that not everybo...
by wolf359
Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Critique My 120k Per Year Plan
Replies: 29
Views: 3744

Re: Critique My 120k Per Year Plan

Congratulations on being so close to retirement! Some considerations: 1) If you're thinking about it being next year, you don't need to ballpark your ACA expenses. You can get a quote now. It may be a different number next year, but it won't be that far off, and good enough for budgeting purposes. 2...
by wolf359
Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: With Rates Falling Should U Buy Annuity?
Replies: 18
Views: 1871

Re: With Rates Falling Should U Buy Annuity?

Well, I wouldn't buy an annuity whatever the rates are unless there were certain giuarantees. Once you buy it, you haver absolutely no control over your money. If married, I would want a joint life annuity with 100% to the survivor with increasing yearly payments based on ther rate of inflation. IF...