Search found 2136 matches

by wolf359
Sat May 23, 2020 10:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Approaching 40, worried about financial future
Replies: 109
Views: 10308

Re: Approaching 40, worried about financial future

Thanks everyone for your responses. To clarify, we are married. 'traditional' family structure. I was not precise enough in that wording. Kids are 9, 11 and 14. Sensitive topic as to her working. The house we are selling (but still own) is valued at 400k. The house we have bought and where we now l...
by wolf359
Mon May 18, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why no love for REITs?
Replies: 102
Views: 8708

Re: Why no love for REITs?

My home is now 34% of my net worth (with the recent drop in equities). My portfolio is already weighted too heavily in real estate, so I would not invest in REITs. I live in a modest condo in a HCOL area, and it is not possible to downsize. REITs and home ownership are not equivalent. While your ho...
by wolf359
Thu May 14, 2020 7:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why no love for REITs?
Replies: 102
Views: 8708

Re: Why no love for REITs?

My home is now 34% of my net worth (with the recent drop in equities). My portfolio is already weighted too heavily in real estate, so I would not invest in REITs. I live in a modest condo in a HCOL area, and it is not possible to downsize. REITs and home ownership are not equivalent. While your ho...
by wolf359
Thu May 14, 2020 7:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone booking flights for 2021 travel?
Replies: 27
Views: 2284

Re: Anyone booking flights for 2021 travel?

You sound like you're experienced travelers, so I'm saying this for the benefit of those readers who are not. Read the fine print on your trip insurance closely. Most travel insurance will cover you if you get sick and are unable to fly. It WILL NOT cover you if there is a pandemic at your destinati...
by wolf359
Mon May 11, 2020 12:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimating social security in the future
Replies: 29
Views: 2116

Re: Estimating social security in the future

Where did you hear about a 25% cut? I think there's always "talk" about cuts, but in reality has there ever been? The current Trustees' report is linked here: https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/index.html Note the statement: • The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund, which pays retirement...
by wolf359
Mon May 11, 2020 12:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimating social security in the future
Replies: 29
Views: 2116

Re: Estimating social security in the future

Speculating on Social Security gets very close to the politics ban on this site. The reason is that changes to the program are inherently political, and we're not supposed to talk about proposed changes to law. We are allowed to talk about published changes and reports as well as the past. It is ver...
by wolf359
Fri May 08, 2020 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2007 to 2020: The changing advice of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street"
Replies: 41
Views: 5249

Re: The changing advice of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" - 2007 to 2020

On "Bond Substitutes" (using emerging markets bonds and high dividend-paying stocks) 2007 edition: - No mention. 2015 & 2020 editions: - "Extremely low interest rates present a daunting challenge for bond investors. All the developed countries of the world are burdened with excessive amounts of deb...
by wolf359
Wed May 06, 2020 1:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Plunger reccomendation for newer toilets
Replies: 23
Views: 1277

Re: Plunger reccomendation for newer toilets

I use one that is flexible rubber, used for older and newer toilets. https://www.homedepot.com/p/Korky-Beehive-Max-Toilet-Plunger-99-12A/203765220 +1 We had the same problem with getting a new toilet, then discovering the old plunger didn't work. This Korky Beehive is more expensive, but it does th...
by wolf359
Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks
Replies: 82
Views: 6183

Re: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks

+1 also curious about Total Bond. Especially because of the long thread a few links down about how LTT should be the first bonds you own I don't do TBM because of the negative convexity of the MBS component so I didn't plot it. If that is not a concern of yours add it to the plot. Another reason wo...
by wolf359
Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks
Replies: 82
Views: 6183

Re: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks

Curious, how did total bond do in there? +1 also curious about Total Bond. Especially because of the long thread a few links down about how LTT should be the first bonds you own I don't do TBM because of the negative convexity of the MBS component so I didn't plot it. If that is not a concern of yo...
by wolf359
Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Air Purifier
Replies: 23
Views: 1231

Re: Air Purifier

Base it on: 1) Pick a HEPA air filter. If it is certified to perform at the HEPA level, then you do not have to worry about performance beyond that. 2) Pick a model where you can obtain replacement filters easily. This will vary for your situation. 3) Pick a model sized to the requirements of your r...
by wolf359
Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ponzi Scheme?
Replies: 215
Views: 17341

Re: Ponzi Scheme?

I completely agree with all that's been already said, but given my current position (I am the young daughter who hasn't dealt with an "real sum" of money) what can I use to leverage the conversation with this parent who is stubborn and has always controlled all finances of the household? Especially...
by wolf359
Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Impacts of an Inflationary Environment?
Replies: 30
Views: 1623

Re: Impacts of an Inflationary Environment?

Are there any winners in an inflationary environment? My question is real. I wasn't yet a working adult the last time we were in such a situation. How to prepare for such an environment? thank you in advance for any comments. Rental Real estate -- If you take out as large a loan as possible to buy ...
by wolf359
Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We are in a full-blown Depression
Replies: 95
Views: 7999

Re: We are in a full-blown Depression

We really aren't going to know if this was a recession or a depression until quite a bit after the fact. In fact, if you read newspaper accounts during the Great Depression, they thought they had recovered multiple times. It's only when you view it through the hindsight of history that the series of...
by wolf359
Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 32132

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

initially the model predicted 2.5 million deaths, now 60k, and it might go lower The models don't exactly predict the future. They project what will happen given the parameters fed into the model. They're predictive in the sense that the speedometer on your car is predictive. When it reads 60 mph, ...
by wolf359
Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS refund late
Replies: 15
Views: 951

Re: IRS refund late

There are many issues going on with the IRS. Their budget has been cut repeatedly over the last 10 years. They've been demoralized by multiple Congressional investigations. Their computer systems are out of date. In just the last few years they've had to deal with: - Tax filing fraud where scammers ...
by wolf359
Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Airline refusing to issue refunds
Replies: 112
Views: 10434

Re: Airline refusing to issue refunds

On Friday, DoT issued specific guidance regarding refunds relating to COVID. Basically, if the airlines cancels the flight, they have to issue a refund.

https://www.transportation.gov/briefing ... ier-refund
by wolf359
Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How are you exercising with gym closures
Replies: 111
Views: 5808

Re: How are you exercising with gym closures

I have a rowing machine, adjustable dumbbells, kettle bells, and an exercise bike in a home gym. We also have been walking and biking. An idea for those who are stuck at home without a gym or much space -- get the Peloton app. It's the same Peloton as that makes the overpriced exercise bike, except ...
by wolf359
Fri Apr 03, 2020 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Received strange social security deposit
Replies: 16
Views: 2034

Re: Received strange social security deposit

How old are you? Are you claiming early, at full retirement age (FRA), or late? If you claim within 1-5 months of your birthday and you're at FRA, they may have given you retroactive payments, backdating your claim date to your birthday. If so, you want to correct that. Would you rather have a one-t...
by wolf359
Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone here depressed just looking at their portfolio?
Replies: 122
Views: 7343

Re: Anyone here depressed just looking at their portfolio?

My portfolio is money that I will not need for years. I'm not focusing on the balance right now. If I did, I'd keep in mind that my automated purchases are buying more shares than before this started. Watching the news about the bodies piling up in temporary morgues in New York City is what depresse...
by wolf359
Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a New Car in Current Market Conditions
Replies: 17
Views: 1689

Re: Buying a New Car in Current Market Conditions

This is absolutely one of the best time in our lifetimes to buy a new car I believe. Pretty much no dealer in Jan/Feb anticipated the steep sales drop off. So they have plenty of car inventory stocked up. And they have bills to pay. However. Couple of points to keep in mind. 1. A lot of states have...
by wolf359
Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296708

April 1st, Rent is due!

This is the first rent due date since the Coronavirus crisis hit the US. There are going to be people and companies deciding whether or not to be late with the rent. Then the landlords will have to decide whether or not to pay their mortgages if rents are not forthcoming. And counties may have short...
by wolf359
Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unemployment (NY) for Small Business Owner and Social security?
Replies: 4
Views: 301

Re: Unemployment (NY) for Small Business Owner and Social security?

I have no idea. This is what findlaw says:
https://blogs.findlaw.com/free_enterpri ... yment.html

Summary: It varies from state to state. The general rule is that if he paid unemployment tax on his salary, he's probably covered.
by wolf359
Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What will you do first, once COVID pandemic is over?
Replies: 271
Views: 17130

Re: What will you do first, once COVID pandemic is over?

Go back to work. Reality wins over wishes. I'll almost certainly go for a hike, too. Our state has decided that trees are a vector and mandated closure of parks and trails. The trees aren't a vector. Crowds are a vector. When the parks and trails get crowded enough, people can't maintain 6 feet sep...
by wolf359
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296708

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I haven’t yet made my IRA contribution for 2019. Does anyone know if that deadline has been moved along with the tax filing date, or is it still April 15? Forbes reported that the IRS clarified that that deadline moved as well. I didn't see it in a quick look on the IRS website, but you can look fo...
by wolf359
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296708

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Forgive my if this question was already asked in this thread, but I just couldn't read all 71 pages! Coming out of this dip, might we expect better performance from large cap stocks than small cap stocks, due to more failures of small businesses? This is just a though I had yesterday. I believe tha...
by wolf359
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much to keep at Vanguard?
Replies: 12
Views: 1534

Re: How much to keep at Vanguard?

I have >$500k at Vanguard in my IRA. I have read that accounts are SIPC insured up to $500k. But on the Vanguard website it says that they have additional SIPC insurance up to $4.5MM. I think Fidelity has the same thing. Is there any reason to move part of it out to another brokerage firm? Not for ...
by wolf359
Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: One simple thing this 50 yo learned...
Replies: 61
Views: 9397

Re: One simple thing this 50 yo learned...

I'm fascinated that I have just recently learned about the strategy of treasuries vs TBM. Why is this not discussed more? Is this the equivalent of those that tilt to SCV but on the bond side? In other words I feel like the BH message is TSM and TBM, but it takes a bear market to realize maybe you ...
by wolf359
Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people keep saying you have to be right twice?
Replies: 213
Views: 7604

Re: Why do people keep saying you have to be right twice?

...with market timing. You don't, you only have to be right ONCE. You're already up after a single decision to sell at the right time. The second decision is a triviality. Worst case, you can buy back in and break even. It's entirely possible to screw up both ends of that gamble. Happens all the ti...
by wolf359
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $19 Trillion in Corporate Debt At Risk of Default
Replies: 167
Views: 11280

Re: $19 Trillion in Corporate Debt At Risk of Default

I'm 100% Treasurys for bonds. Total Bond is filled with MBS and corporates. I don't want exposure to either one of them. Total Bond is about 44.4% Treasury/Agency and 21.5% Government mortgage-backed securities. In other words, about 2/3 of its holdings are backed up by the US government. It's not ...
by wolf359
Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $19 Trillion in Corporate Debt At Risk of Default
Replies: 167
Views: 11280

Re: $19 Trillion in Corporate Debt At Risk of Default

I'm 100% Treasurys for bonds. Total Bond is filled with MBS and corporates. I don't want exposure to either one of them. Total Bond is about 44.4% Treasury/Agency and 21.5% Government mortgage-backed securities. In other words, about 2/3 of its holdings are backed up by the US government. It's not ...
by wolf359
Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement investing while the market is down.
Replies: 4
Views: 520

Re: Retirement investing while the market is down.

I'm doing that. Your stocks are dropping faster than your bonds, so they're currently out of balance. Buying stocks only not only gets you more stocks at the lower price, but it also helps you rebalance your portfolio a little without incurring any taxable events.
by wolf359
Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was there any escape? when diversification did not work
Replies: 98
Views: 5338

Re: Was there any escape? when diversification did not work

The most effective diversification in this case was cash, or ultra short term treasuries. The flight to cash is why even gold dropped recently. Not true: cash is not a diversifier, ever, and over the past six weeks long-term Treasury bonds have been much More effective than T-bills. For a 60/40 por...
by wolf359
Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to get Toilet Paper ? seriously.
Replies: 684
Views: 55516

Re: How to get Toilet Paper ? seriously.

Use 3 seashells. Ok, seriously, this is a distribution issue, not a supply issue. Toilet paper is produced in the US, and it is in stock at the warehouses. It is generally restocked daily. Just ask at the store when they restock, and be there then. The trick of just going to Costco first thing in th...
by wolf359
Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was there any escape? when diversification did not work
Replies: 98
Views: 5338

Re: Was there any escape? when diversification did not work

The most effective diversification in this case was cash, or ultra short term treasuries. The flight to cash is why even gold dropped recently.

The problem of course is that cash has little to no yield now.
by wolf359
Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the F.I.R.E. movement survive?
Replies: 98
Views: 7062

Re: Will the F.I.R.E. movement survive?

The markets don’t owe you the return you need to maintain your desired lifestyle. ie there’s no guarantee that you can remain retired. Yes, but that is true for everyone, and not specific to FIRE folks. If you're picking when you retire, you presumably will plan it out before you pull the trigger. ...
by wolf359
Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the F.I.R.E. movement survive?
Replies: 98
Views: 7062

Re: Will the F.I.R.E. movement survive?

Many of the people who FIRE is popular with also just make a lot of money but don’t want to spend more than an average person. A savings rate of 50% isn’t that difficult when you’re making significantly more than the average household. The blogs just make those people feel good about themselves for...
by wolf359
Tue Mar 17, 2020 3:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the F.I.R.E. movement survive?
Replies: 98
Views: 7062

Re: Will the F.I.R.E. movement survive?

If FIRE doesn't survive then neither will any retirees here. Same principles. +1 If someone FIREd using the 4% rule for a 50+ year retirement, they may still be fine if they: 1- have the ability to adjust their expenses during a downturn. Are you going out more and spending more right now? Or are y...
by wolf359
Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is my refusal to address rebalancing right now irresponsible/unbogle? Or can it be justified?
Replies: 19
Views: 1498

Re: Is my refusal to address rebalancing right now irresponsible/unbogle? Or can it be justified?

From "The Little Book of Common Sense Investing" by John Bogle: We’ve just done a study for the NYTimes on rebalancing, so the subject is fresh in my mind. Fact: a 48%S&P 500, 16% small cap, 16% international, and 20% bond index, over the past 20 years, earned a 9.49% annual return without rebalanci...
by wolf359
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?
Replies: 200
Views: 15073

Re: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?

I am going to bow out here, save for this last... It's great to talk about disruption when that means a robot flipping a hamburger, or a cheaper (illegal) taxi. The tone of the conversation changes fast when it's about your job. (whatever you guys do, don't - don't - bring up radiology). A recessio...
by wolf359
Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]
Replies: 117
Views: 9601

Re: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]

So much uncertainty has been introduced that it seems rational for the market to be down as much as it is. In terms of its effects on everyday life, the impact of coronavirus is already greater than I saw during the global financial crisis. I don't know how long the economy can keep going with ever...
by wolf359
Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:08 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Number Of Posts By A Single Member In One Day
Replies: 17
Views: 1920

Re: Number Of Posts By A Single Member In One Day

VictoriaF wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:04 pm
ionball wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:09 pm
It's probably a bot or a retired person with nothing better to do.
Or the Russians have moved from Facebook to Bogleheads.

Victoria
...Until they discover the forum rules about political posts.
by wolf359
Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]
Replies: 117
Views: 9601

Re: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]

-This should have reinforced the importance of an emergency fund. If you don't have one, you may need to go to drastic measures and maybe suffer some losses to get one. I'm not a big fan of this kind of talk right after a crash. Before the crash sure, but now it's too late. People may latch onto th...
by wolf359
Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]
Replies: 117
Views: 9601

Re: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]

So much uncertainty has been introduced that it seems rational for the market to be down as much as it is. In terms of its effects on everyday life, the impact of coronavirus is already greater than I saw during the global financial crisis. I don't know how long the economy can keep going with ever...
by wolf359
Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]
Replies: 117
Views: 9601

Re: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]

Some points: 1. Markets were already overextended. Some of the fall is just unwinding the overbought positions and getting back to realism. In January, earnings were flat, and people were throwing money in for FOMO of the bull. 2. Small businesses make up the majority of employment in the US. Forced...
by wolf359
Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IPS and physical Real Estate
Replies: 4
Views: 198

Re: IPS and physical Real Estate

My real estate investing strategy is different from my stock/bond investing strategy. My stock/bond IPS only covers stocks and bond investing.
by wolf359
Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What to do when you're in Corona Lockdown
Replies: 1
Views: 502

What to do when you're in Corona Lockdown

Let's say you're not quarantined, the kids are out of school, and you are working remotely from home.

1. What safe activities are you doing with the family?

2. What previous activities are you now avoiding?

Bonus Question:
3. If you actually get quarantined, what activities will you have planned?
by wolf359
Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COVID-19 long-term impacts on economic/financial system health
Replies: 14
Views: 1361

Re: COVID-19 long-term impacts on economic/financial system health

1) I think there will be a great leap forward in tele-working options and distance learning. Since schools and workplaces were forced to set up long-term trial runs, more places will have been forced to prove that it works. If it didn't work, those kinks will be ironed out. This will change the work...
by wolf359
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tips on answering the question - What Should I Do?
Replies: 164
Views: 246041

Re: Tips on answering the question - What Should I Do?

[If you are reading this for the first time, please note the post dates - admin alex] That is a question I have been getting quite frequently. Rather than post ad-hoc when this topic comes up, I decided to make my own post that slices together some advice that I have already put on this forum. What...
by wolf359
Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”
Replies: 169
Views: 14067

Re: How many people with 7 figure portfolios are”rejoicing ?”

I am 70, retired, and was at 40/60 AA at the peak. This week, I switched to 60/40, and may go 70/30 if this continues. I have to do RMD’s starting this year but IRA is all in bonds, so comfortable with that. I am in a position that, if I need to increase my allocation in stocks, I will have to own ...