Search found 606 matches

by renditt
Tue Dec 25, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we officially in bear market ?
Replies: 79
Views: 10331

Re: Are we officially in bear market ?

Jimsad wrote:
Mon Dec 24, 2018 8:55 pm
Some cable channels declared S&P 500 officially entered bear market today .
Is this correct ?
There won’t be any doubt later this week if we are in a bear market or not... :shock:
by renditt
Mon Dec 24, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the low for the S&P 500?
Replies: 87
Views: 8630

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

goblue100 wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 8:37 am
KenG wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:33 pm
2300. That is all I can stand.
I think you are in the right ballpark, but not for that reason. :)

I guess 2250.
You guys are next...
by renditt
Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did the musicians on the titanic realize their fate?
Replies: 132
Views: 10723

Re: When did the musicians on the titanic realize their fate?

As the losses continue you will see the tone change. And I don’t mean that gleefully, it’s just human nature. I fully expect this downturn to get real ugly. I went into the 2008 crisis with 75% equity and realized that was too high. I’m now @ 40% and the declines don’t bother me, but then again I th...
by renditt
Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the low for the S&P 500?
Replies: 87
Views: 8630

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

JoeRetire wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 8:32 pm
renditt wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:46 pm
What will be the low for the S&P 500 of this correction / bear market whatever you want to call it?
2385
Comcool and eRob are out - JoeRetire you are next :D
by renditt
Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the low for the S&P 500?
Replies: 87
Views: 8630

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

Curious if the bears on this thread have been acting on their predictions in their investments? Not dramatically, but I have currently a fairly low valuation to equities due to low need to take risk and valuation concerns, around 40%. If markets were cheaper, I would probably increase that to 50-55...
by renditt
Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the low for the S&P 500?
Replies: 87
Views: 8630

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

I posted the same question over 10 years ago in the midst of the financial crisis... https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=26525 So it ultimately closed at 676 on 3/9/09 for the low and it looks like you didn’t offer 650-700 as a choice back then? Too bad, would be fun to see how many gu...
by renditt
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the low for the S&P 500?
Replies: 87
Views: 8630

What will be the low for the S&P 500?

I get it, nobody knows, but c'mon, let's have some fun while we see our portfolios decline in value... What will be the low for the S&P 500 of this correction / bear market whatever you want to call it? My guess is 1400. I posted the same question over 10 years ago in the midst of the financial cris...
by renditt
Sat Jun 02, 2012 7:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying the market in 05/2012
Replies: 15
Views: 1891

Re: Buying the market in 05/2012

I bought both Emerging Market and Total International, which increased my stock allocation from 30 to 40%. I plan on increasing my allocation to stocks to 60% in the next 2 years. Should we see a significant decline in the market, I might do it quickly, otherwise I'll do it gradually. I really don't...
by renditt
Fri Jun 01, 2012 4:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Update: A Real Recovery, or a False Start?
Replies: 33
Views: 2272

Re: Market Update: A Real Recovery, or a False Start?

As usual, Jeremy Siegel was completely wrong.
by renditt
Fri Jun 01, 2012 4:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why 'Sell in May' doesn't work for investors
Replies: 37
Views: 4626

Re: Why 'Sell in May' doesn't work for investors

Hmm, 'Sell in May' turned out to be a pretty good strategy...
by renditt
Mon May 14, 2012 8:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bubble Alert
Replies: 43
Views: 4364

Re: Bubble Alert

Just to check how markets have done since the bubble alert:

US Market (VTI): almost unchanged, down 1%
US Small Cap Value (VBR): down 4%
International (VEU): down 8%
Emerging Markets (VWO): down 11%

The overall US market clearly has some catching up to do :twisted:
by renditt
Mon May 07, 2012 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold is ready to fall
Replies: 157
Views: 13602

Re: Gold is ready to fall

Cut-Throat wrote: So, it not risk free. You made 400%, it's possible to lose 400% too.
Actually it's not, mathematically impossible.
by renditt
Sat May 05, 2012 7:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selling rental property capital gain/loss issue
Replies: 12
Views: 1499

Re: Selling rental property capital gain/loss issue

Also, I would be curious how you managed to have a 100k on your other rental. For example, I researched the same issue as we are in the process of selling our second home which was converted to a rental, and I realized that when calculating the cost basis for a property which was converted from priv...
by renditt
Mon Apr 30, 2012 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why 'Sell in May' doesn't work for investors
Replies: 37
Views: 4626

Re: Why 'Sell in May' doesn't work for investors

Behavioral Economists have observed that people judge rhyming statements as more accurate. If the names of the months of May and June were reversed, "Sell in May and go away" would still ring a bell. Slogans that rhyme are a waste of time. Guess I'll have to stop following my usual rules of "Buy in...
by renditt
Sun Apr 29, 2012 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why 'Sell in May' doesn't work for investors
Replies: 37
Views: 4626

Re: Why 'Sell in May' doesn't work for investors

Pretty sure it will work just fine this time, similar to last year.
by renditt
Sat Apr 28, 2012 7:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "My Faith-Based Retirement" by Joe Nocera, NYT
Replies: 143
Views: 12742

Re: "My Faith-Based Retirement" by Joe Nocera, NYT

I think it's pretty simple: To expect the average person to manage his / her retirement portfolio responsibly is simply not going to work. The thought of my parents (who live in Europe and both have pensions) managing their own retirement money would scare me to death. I haven't really thought this ...
by renditt
Tue Apr 17, 2012 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats out of favor now?
Replies: 71
Views: 5472

Re: Whats out of favor now?

Agree with those who said European stocks are relatively cheap. I think international stocks / Emerging Markets are still ok.

Other than that
- US stocks expensive
- Bonds very expensive
- high yield bonds expensive
- cash pays nothing
- Gold not cheap
by renditt
Tue Apr 17, 2012 12:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling Rental Property - Tax Treatment?
Replies: 16
Views: 1356

Re: Selling Rental Property - Tax Treatment?

OP, dont worry. IRS will help :oops: When you suddenly show up with a big loss on an investment property you are likely to have a near certain audit and you will be well advised to have everything in order. Actually, I checked Publication 527 Residential Rental Property and it does not mention that...
by renditt
Tue Apr 17, 2012 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling Rental Property - Tax Treatment?
Replies: 16
Views: 1356

Re: Selling Rental Property - Tax Treatment?

See page 10 of publication 551, Basis of Assets Figure the basis for a loss starting with the smaller of your adjusted basis or the FMV of the property at the time of the change to business or rental use. Then adjust this amount for the period after the change in the property’s use, as discussed ea...
by renditt
Tue Apr 17, 2012 8:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling Rental Property - Tax Treatment?
Replies: 16
Views: 1356

Selling Rental Property - Tax Treatment?

We are thinking about selling our 2nd home. We never used the home as primary residence and have used the home for the last 2 years to generate rental income. If and when we sell the house, we will likely have a substantial loss. Would I be able to carryforward that loss on my tax return and offset ...
by renditt
Mon Apr 16, 2012 8:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does anyone here use a CPA for their taxes?
Replies: 58
Views: 4777

Re: Does anyone here use a CPA for their taxes?

Doing it myself but maybe I should use a CPA. Primary home, rental property, LOTS of stock transactions, backdoor Roth etc... Spent way too much time this year, but I guess next year should be easier as brokers will report the cost basis as well. This year was bad though. Also, the IRS came back wit...
by renditt
Mon Apr 16, 2012 8:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Average Income Tax Rate
Replies: 31
Views: 2478

Re: Average Income Tax Rate

37% of total income

40% of taxable income
by renditt
Sun Apr 15, 2012 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: have/would you invest in a hedge fund?
Replies: 43
Views: 2907

Re: have/would you invest in a hedge fund?

Yes, if I knew the manager, he had an excellent track record and I had lots to invest.

Would never be a core holding, but say I had 10m I could see investing 500k in a HF.
by renditt
Sat Apr 14, 2012 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where do we bogleheads Splurge?!
Replies: 138
Views: 12772

Re: Where do we bogleheads Splurge?!

Personal trainer.

Chiropractor.

Dog walker.

Babysitter.
by renditt
Thu Apr 12, 2012 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you approach a down market psychologically?
Replies: 101
Views: 6321

Re: How do you approach a down market psychologically?

You don't make or loose any money in the markets until you sell. I don't plan on selling for another 25 years. So why should I care where the market is at today? Or next week? Or next year? JJ But this thread is not about you. :wink: (added in fairness the OP did ask how each of us handle ups and d...
by renditt
Thu Apr 12, 2012 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you approach a down market psychologically?
Replies: 101
Views: 6321

Re: How do you approach a down market psychologically?

livesoft wrote:There is something one can do about the best/worst days. We had a discussion in this thread about it: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 10&t=60207
We are hopefully not talking about the infamous RBD strategy again? I guess we are.
by renditt
Wed Apr 11, 2012 12:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Economics of Adoption
Replies: 30
Views: 3254

Re: The Economics of Adoption

We adopted our daughter domestically a couple of years ago. It was an open adoption and we met the birth mother before our daughter was born and were actually in the hospital when our daughter was born, so we are looking after her since day 1. Worked with a wonderful agency. Couldn't even tell you a...
by renditt
Tue Apr 10, 2012 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I Retire?
Replies: 45
Views: 4264

Re: Can I Retire?

I have created a plan that calls for me to stop working at age 55. Now, at age 40, I'm starting to think work isn't such a wonderful concept and I'd like the ability not to depend on it for income. (I work on commissions which can be feast or famine.) I have been keeping careful track of my investm...
by renditt
Fri Mar 30, 2012 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [POLL] How many miles on your car?
Replies: 141
Views: 10794

Re: [POLL] How many miles on your car?

130.

Bought my new F150 Saturday, loving it!
by renditt
Thu Mar 22, 2012 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: from nisiprius, a 'greatest post' in case you missed it
Replies: 147
Views: 17694

Re: from nisiprius, a 'greatest post' in case you missed it

In my view the main message of this is very simple: Be very conservative when making assumptions of future returns. I think that's a prudent approach, especially now with bond yields at records lows and stocks still overvalued. There is simply no way any stock / bond combination will match the retur...
by renditt
Thu Mar 15, 2012 3:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Update: A Real Recovery, or a False Start?
Replies: 33
Views: 2272

Re: Market Update: A Real Recovery, or a False Start?

Whatever Siegel says, do the opposite.
by renditt
Mon Mar 12, 2012 3:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax planning for high income couples
Replies: 33
Views: 4389

Re: Tax planning for high income couples

Thanks for the ideas! We live in California ( :( ), high state taxes with no option for back door roth. Goal for this year Max out 401k - 34K Can open FSA account, though I doubt we will use much Currently emergency fund sitting in a savings account @2%, will move that over to index fund We are re-...
by renditt
Sat Mar 10, 2012 9:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 3 Years since ...
Replies: 16
Views: 1725

Re: 3 Years since ...

Lessons learned: - Stock markets can drop 50% (or more) - I had too much equities going into the crisis (around 70% including REITs) - Even though I had too much in stocks and at some point 'lost' several 100k's, emotionally I had no problem dealing with the declines and was not tempted to sell at t...
by renditt
Fri Mar 09, 2012 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: <Richard Dawson voice> Survey says $150K needed to live...
Replies: 102
Views: 6806

Re: <Richard Dawson voice> Survey says $150K needed to live.

These "I spend x" "but I spend only y" discussions really make me laugh. Andy said it exactly right: All that matters is that you save enough. If you make 500k per year, pay 150k in taxes, save 150k and spend 200k, good for you. If you make 60k and save 15k, great job. Let's just be more tolerant fo...
by renditt
Tue Mar 06, 2012 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hussman: Now is one of the worst times in history to invest
Replies: 100
Views: 11011

Re: Hussman: Now is one of the worst times in history to inv

Even as a fan of Hussman's weekly letter, I have to admit the performance of his Strategic Growth Fund has been dismal over the last years. Since early April 2009, his fund is down 9% whereas the S&P is up 59% . Whereas I wouldn't expect him to match the S&P is this kind of market, one would think ...
by renditt
Tue Mar 06, 2012 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hussman: Now is one of the worst times in history to invest
Replies: 100
Views: 11011

Re: Hussman: Now is one of the worst times in history to inv

Even as a fan of Hussman's weekly letter, I have to admit the performance of his Strategic Growth Fund has been dismal over the last years. Since early April 2009, his fund is down 9% whereas the S&P is up 59% . Whereas I wouldn't expect him to match the S&P is this kind of market, one would think h...
by renditt
Tue Mar 06, 2012 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hussman: Now is one of the worst times in history to invest
Replies: 100
Views: 11011

Re: Hussman: Now is one of the worst times in history to inv

Easy. If the US market substantially outperforms the predictions from Hussman and Grantham over the next 7-10 years (both predict approx 4% nominal or 1% real return annually), I would be the first to admit that they were simply wrong. Note though that both predicted correctly the dismal US stock m...
by renditt
Tue Mar 06, 2012 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hussman: Now is one of the worst times in history to invest
Replies: 100
Views: 11011

Re: Hussman: Now is one of the worst times in history to inv

I'm with Hussman. Me too. One of the best investment related newsletters / blogs I can find on the web (together with Grantham), certainly much better than the blogs of Swedroe and Ferri, who are held in such high regard here. It does make me laugh that people ridicule Hussman, but when Rick Ferri ...
by renditt
Tue Mar 06, 2012 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hussman: Now is one of the worst times in history to invest
Replies: 100
Views: 11011

Re: Hussman: Now is one of the worst times in history to inv

I'm with Hussman. Me too. One of the best investment related newsletters / blogs I can find on the web (together with Grantham), certainly much better than the blogs of Swedroe and Ferri, who are held in such high regard here. It does make me laugh that people ridicule Hussman, but when Rick Ferri ...
by renditt
Sat Mar 03, 2012 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you have a portfolio "floor"?
Replies: 50
Views: 4473

Re: Do you have a portfolio "floor"?

We don't have a set floor, however due to a low need need to take risk, our allocation to stocks is fairly small for our age (40% age 40). As an additional safety measure, I don't sell bonds to buy stocks should stocks decrease in values. If anything, I would only rebalance using new money.
by renditt
Tue Feb 28, 2012 7:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in a Natural Gas ETF
Replies: 13
Views: 1449

Re: Investing in a Natural Gas ETF

Just go to Google Finance and look up the price chart of the Natural Gas ETF UNG.

That's all you need to know about investing in a Natural Gas ETF! :)
by renditt
Sun Feb 26, 2012 4:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: House / Gross income ratio
Replies: 13
Views: 1527

Re: House / Gross income ratio

Less than 1 for us.
by renditt
Sun Feb 26, 2012 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: House / Gross income ratio
Replies: 13
Views: 1527

House / Gross income ratio

I read an article recently which mentioned that for the average household, the ratio of market value of the house divided by the gross income (I.e., pre-tax) is 3.5. Curious how this looks for Bogleheads? If you are currently renting, you can still calculate based on the estimated market value of yo...
by renditt
Sun Feb 26, 2012 2:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Living "month to month" on $200k per year
Replies: 83
Views: 9609

Re: Living "month to month" on $200k per year

Nothing surprising in these articles. You wouldn't be able to save much in a place like NYC on 10k per month if you have kids and have to pay for day care.
by renditt
Fri Feb 10, 2012 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has Buffett changed anyones mind
Replies: 65
Views: 5264

Re: Has Buffett changed anyones mind

No, stocks are overpriced.

Bonds are overpriced too, so I currently have a lot of cash.
by renditt
Wed Feb 08, 2012 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bubble Alert
Replies: 43
Views: 4364

Re: Bubble Alert

I'm sure this will be a very popular post :) , but just wanted to go on record that the stock market is (again) clearly overvalued and it's time to go into cash. In my view, the problems in Europe have neither been resolved nor are the fully priced in the market and the US economy will probably get...
by renditt
Wed Feb 08, 2012 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bubble Alert
Replies: 43
Views: 4364

Bubble Alert

I'm sure this will be a very popular post :) , but just wanted to go on record that the stock market is (again) clearly overvalued and it's time to go into cash. In my view, the problems in Europe have neither been resolved nor are the fully priced in the market and the US economy will probably get ...
by renditt
Mon Feb 06, 2012 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: February 4, 2012 Peak High?
Replies: 47
Views: 4453

Re: Poll: February 4, 2012 Peak High?

On February 4, 2012 the Dow closed at 12,862.23 and the S&P 500 closed at 1,344.90 . Through the first 6 weeks of 2012 the market has seen a tremendous run-up. Normally after such a run-up there is a pull-back. Do you think these closing prices as of 2/4/12 will be at or near the peak high for 2012...