Search found 77 matches

by Martin
Wed Jun 14, 2017 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 64
Views: 12731

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

You now need to use a cookie to access historical price data with Yahoo. See this thread https://stackoverflow.com/questions/44030983/yahoo-finance-url-not-working/44050039#44050039 And go to this site for the solution http://www.xlautomation.com.au/free-spreadsheets/yahoo-historical-price-extract I...
by Martin
Tue Jun 13, 2017 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Yahoo Finance no longer works - Alternatives to download securities quotes]
Replies: 289
Views: 52346

Re: Excel Macro using Yahoo Finance- not working

raven15 wrote:Friends, it is pretty easy to fix this. Add "download." in front of the "finance." in your old formula and it will work again. The evaluate formula tool tells you this.
I don't believe this works for historic values. That is the format to pull in a single day for multiple tickers.
by Martin
Tue Jun 13, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Yahoo Finance no longer works - Alternatives to download securities quotes]
Replies: 289
Views: 52346

Re: Excel Macro using Yahoo Finance- not working

I was recently very surprised to learn that Yahoo made a change that rendered all of my excel macro based financial models garbage. They require a cookie and a crumb but it is now possible to get it back up and running with a little programming know how. Here is the link that has the sample code. I ...
by Martin
Mon Nov 28, 2016 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An excellent book for those interested in MOMENTUM factor
Replies: 10
Views: 1959

Re: An excellent book for those interested in MOMENTUM factor

I ordered the book on Larry's recommendation and it had some interesting nuggets but left me a bit unsatisfied. 1) The biggest nugget was the concept of doing a screen on high momentum stocks based on ratio of days up vs. down. I have already incorporated that into my momentum model that I had alrea...
by Martin
Mon Jun 27, 2016 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BREXIT - Whats the big deal?
Replies: 108
Views: 13603

Why did VTSAX drop so much?

I was really surprised to see that VTSAX (Total Stock Market) drop much more on Friday than VINIX (S&P 500 index). THis is counter intuitive to me as I would have thought larger cap stocks would have more international exposure than the mid and small cap portions of VTSAX. This was also true with mo...
by Martin
Tue May 24, 2016 8:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2 Big Companies merging = no severance package?
Replies: 24
Views: 5400

Re: 2 Big Companies merging = no severance package?

The company I work for just did a downsizing. They also offered 4 weeks per year up to 1 year. I had never heard of a plan beyond 2 weeks per year. I still scratch my head trying to figure out how this saves money when positions were filled with outside contractors for as much and in many cases more...
by Martin
Wed May 11, 2016 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Batten down the hatches!
Replies: 25
Views: 5285

Re: Batten down the hatches!

I believe a lot more people are investors than in the past combined with massive amounts of information on TV and the web bring investment talk more into the open. I don't see an indicator of much of anything.
by Martin
Sun May 01, 2016 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire Hathaway, Annual Meeting Live Streaming Today
Replies: 23
Views: 2801

Re: Berkshire Hathaway, Annual Meeting Live Streaming Today

I started watching it from the beginning while I was doing other things. I could not stop watching it. I was probably more impressed with Munger, this was the first time I had heard him speak. It was refreshing to hear some common sense being talked in corporate America.
by Martin
Thu Oct 08, 2015 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Club Stock Picking vs Passive Index Investing
Replies: 22
Views: 2276

Re: Investment Club Stock Picking vs Passive Index Investing

I'm getting 22,343.21, by investing 500 up front and 60/mo in VTSMX since the fund's inception. CAGR is 8.27% for the fund vs 6.90% for the club. So, you lost or missed out on ~$2,475 by stock picking. However, that comes down to just $13.75/mo over the entire timeframe. If it helps you stick with ...
by Martin
Wed Sep 09, 2015 6:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 8550
Views: 1673134

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

the Asian markets shot up overnight with Nikkei going up 7.7% and both Asia and Europe following. This is some incredible volatility. Don't like the pricing wait a day, or a couple of hours. There has to be some major money being made and lost on these moves.
by Martin
Tue Sep 08, 2015 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone with back-testing software to help settle a wager?
Replies: 16
Views: 1666

Re: Anyone with back-testing software to help settle a wager?

Yahoo has VFINX daily data back to 1980, also with corrections for dividends. S&P is on yahoo (^GSPC) back to early 50s I don't believe this strategy is going to win vs. B&H of S&P. For returns in isolation. Could win vs. B&H 60/40 because what you will likely see is the SD of the timing strategy w...
by Martin
Mon Sep 07, 2015 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 228
Views: 46809

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

Very interesting Robert, thanks for the explanation. That's pretty eye opening regarding the drop in returns if you use AGG versus T-bills. Here's another question, what duration of T-bills does he use in the book? I can't remember what he specifically said and I've loaned my book to my dad. Thanks...
by Martin
Mon Sep 07, 2015 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone with back-testing software to help settle a wager?
Replies: 16
Views: 1666

Re: Anyone with back-testing software to help settle a wager?

Sure 1877 -14% Sell 1879 16% Buy 1885 -12% Sell 1886 29% Buy 1894 -19% Sell 1896 5% Buy 1904 -17% Sell 1905 31% Buy 1908 -24% Sell 1909 38% Buy 1918 -18% Sell 1919 18% Buy 1921 -14% Sell 1922 9% Buy 1931 -22% Sell 1934 55% Buy 1938 -31% Sell 1939 17% Buy 1947 -12% Sell 1949 9% Buy 1974 -16% Sell 19...
by Martin
Sun Sep 06, 2015 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beware of the Death Cross
Replies: 17
Views: 3618

Re: Beware of the Death Cross

Here is an illustration showing the 50 day and 200 day moving average crossovers since late 2001. The upper part of the chart shows the S&P 500 index and the 50 day and 200 day simple moving averages. The lower part of the chart shows the crossovers in binary format. The 2003-2007 bull market shows...
by Martin
Fri Sep 04, 2015 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 228
Views: 46809

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

So, anyone else move to their 'safe' harbor this month? I'm using the return on BIL as my yardstick and according to that it's time to get out. I pulled completely out of Mid Cap Growth on 8/21. I was likely a little quicker to the draw since I monitor and evaluate pretty much daily. Unfortunately ...
by Martin
Wed Sep 02, 2015 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 289
Views: 45057

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

You panicked and sold your entire equity position. I can't imagine there is an investor on this board that thinks that was a good idea. Now what? What is your plan going forward? I would disagree with your statement. 1) Followers of Momentum or other timing strategies have very likely exited the ma...
by Martin
Wed Sep 02, 2015 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 289
Views: 45057

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

You panicked and sold your entire equity position. I can't imagine there is an investor on this board that thinks that was a good idea. Now what? What is your plan going forward? I would disagree with your statement. 1) Followers of Momentum or other timing strategies have very likely exited the ma...
by Martin
Tue Sep 01, 2015 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excel function to return latest price
Replies: 39
Views: 9618

Re: Excel function to return latest price

yes there is a pretty straightforward way to do this that involves macros. I have an example I could send you. PM me with your email and I will send it in the morning. It uses Yahoo Finance and can pull any data available. I use the same routines to pull historical data as well. here's some data to ...
by Martin
Sat Aug 29, 2015 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aug 2015 correction: what Bogleheads did...
Replies: 143
Views: 13453

Re: Aug 2015 correction: what Bogleheads did...

OK, now a different view. I went from 100% equity to about 5%. Was I panicked? not at all. the momentum of US is negative with or without the alleged recovery. While the Buy and Hold crowd is happy to have held, I am equally happy to have sold pretty much on schedule and more importantly stay out as...
by Martin
Sat Aug 29, 2015 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 228
Views: 46809

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

I have a portion of my portfolio dedicated as well. The strategy as a whole seems sound, but when the market is bouncing around really close to the t-bill rate it's a little bit nerve racking. Maybe you readjust your holdings and lock in a 10% loss, or maybe you're slightly above and lose another 1...
by Martin
Tue Aug 25, 2015 6:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 228
Views: 46809

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

As I understand it holding are only adjusted at the end of each month, so if the S&P drops below the T-bill rate mid month, holdings aren't adjusted until month end correct? It really depends on your rule set. I extensively modeled both daily and monthly adjustments with all sorts of minimum holds....
by Martin
Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VHT down 27% - Glitch or missed opportunity
Replies: 59
Views: 9041

Re: VHT down 27% - Glitch or missed opportunity

Wow, this is an extremely timely thread. I sold my first ETF Friday morning placing a market order before the market opened. It also happened to be VHT. Thankfully, I did not run into the issue described above but I am able to learn a very good lesson without that pain.
by Martin
Sun Aug 23, 2015 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 228
Views: 46809

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

I have been following this strategy with great interest, and the backtesting results do look really good. After the stockmarket drawdown of the last week it looks like for most funds being tracked either total market or the S&P 500 has now dropped below the treasury yield with a 12 month lookback p...
by Martin
Fri Aug 21, 2015 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where are you in the cycle of market emotions?
Replies: 63
Views: 7018

Re: Where are you in the cycle of market emotions?

This year I've spent countless hours fretting about asset allocation and risk tolerance and other investing matters--this is my first year taking investments seriously--and I basically would have gotten the exact same results putting the money under my mattress. :? So yeah, mildly annoyed is a pret...
by Martin
Fri Aug 21, 2015 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks for the Long Run? Really?
Replies: 41
Views: 8731

Re: "Stocks for the Long Run? Really?

Cherry Picked Dates. let's take an average 15 year period going back and see which has higher returns. Don't have the energy to do it plus I already know the answer.
by Martin
Tue Aug 18, 2015 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you "weight" pre-tax and post-tax money differently when you AA?
Replies: 55
Views: 3851

Re: Should you "weight" pre-tax and post-tax money differently when you AA?

I have most of my retirement in a 401 with another pot in Roth IRA. taxes aren't the driving factor in asset allocation, fund availability drives it. I have access to a lot more choices in my Roth so I tend to use that for more "exotic" funds such as Health care. I suspect it will have higher return...
by Martin
Thu Aug 13, 2015 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inverse ETFs
Replies: 44
Views: 4010

Re: Inverse ETFs

My suggestion would be to model the inverse ETF. I did that with some of the 2x and 3x ETF' s and in spite of the doom and gloom in this thread, the return held very close to the 2x and 3x, sometimes a bit higher, sometimes a bit lower. there is a research paper detailing the misconception of the lo...
by Martin
Tue Aug 04, 2015 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (July 2015)
Replies: 13
Views: 3031

Re: madsinger monthly report (July 2015)

Had to lookup the Hot Hands Portfolio, basically a momentum play. Pure luck that it beat the three fund portfolio across all timeframes. I'm sure this anomaly will be gone by Friday.
by Martin
Thu Jul 30, 2015 8:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Priorities
Replies: 91
Views: 15440

Re: Priorities

thank you for sharing your story. I started listening to country music about ten years ago. I still recall one of the first songs I heard, "Live like your were dying". In a way this could be a wake up that may transform your life. Your point about obsession is a good one. It really plays into the po...
by Martin
Fri Jul 24, 2015 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models
Replies: 202
Views: 17911

Re: Are Stocks Overvalued? A Survey of Equity Valuation Models

Dilettantes and debutantes may dabble by indexing this or that little asset class, but the Global Market Portfolio separates these indexing poseurs from the manly men who go all the way. The faux indexers should be unmasked for the closet active managers they are. As Meb Faber succinctly puts it, “...
by Martin
Sat Jul 18, 2015 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "cold hands" effect - the latest investment anomaly
Replies: 14
Views: 2413

Re: The "cold hands" effect - the latest investment anomaly

This seems like a classic momentum play with funds. I also agree with their point on fees, it's a component of return not the end all be all. VGHCX (health Care) is the perfect example over the last few years. While it has a .3 ER it has outperformed the general market by a huge margin.
by Martin
Wed Jul 15, 2015 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Productivity and Pay
Replies: 9
Views: 1030

Re: Productivity and Pay

Seems perfectly logical. The right half saw increases in productivity needed to offset a mismatch in global wage rates.
by Martin
Tue Jul 07, 2015 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many Bogleheads tilt Value?
Replies: 49
Views: 6507

Re: How many Bogleheads tilt Value?

I'm pretty conflicted. Is it worth it to add a heavy weighting of value stocks? I would not make your decision based on a poll of what people around here are doing. There is a strong tendency for investors to follow the herd and not be entirely rational in their decision making, or so say the finan...
by Martin
Sun Jul 05, 2015 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman on Market Timing
Replies: 87
Views: 12488

Re: Paul Merriman on Market Timing

Let's start by defining our terms. Market timing to some means guessing where and when the market is going up or down. I agree with the preponderance of opinion that it is impossible. But, to me at least, that is different from market timing with moving averages which is what Merriman is talking ab...
by Martin
Sat Jul 04, 2015 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aren't we obsessing way too much about our portfolios?
Replies: 84
Views: 9445

Re: Aren't we obsessing way too much about our portfolios?

In response to overall point I agree completely, a bit too much obsessing. But you example is terrible in pointing it out. Your two extremes. 9.68%: 10k in 1972 = 485k in 2014 9.04%: 10k in 1972 = 379k in 2014 Is $106k worth it? In this simple example, absolutely. In reality much of the tweaking is ...
by Martin
Wed Jul 01, 2015 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VDE lacking clean energy
Replies: 26
Views: 2542

Re: VDE lacking clean energy

The question to my mind is: if one is going to invest in a sector, what should be the definition of that sector? For better or worse--I'm sorta Googling as I'm writing because I don't do sector investing and haven't paid much attention--there's some kind of "standard" definition, the Global Industr...
by Martin
Tue Jun 30, 2015 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intentional 401k overcontribution to get new employer match
Replies: 34
Views: 5837

Re: Intentional 401k overcontribution to get new employer match

Can she contribute post tax dollars? (Not Roth) if so it is possible the match could go against post tax dollars.
by Martin
Tue Jun 30, 2015 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intentional 401k overcontribution to get new employer match
Replies: 34
Views: 5837

Re: Intentional 401k overcontribution to get new employer match

Why would they laugh at the request? 1. Because they know it was not an excess deferral when the money was being contributed. 2. Because they can. Also because your fiancé is a FORMER employee - so why should they go out of their way to do something they have no obligation to do? As Livesoft pointe...
by Martin
Sun Jun 28, 2015 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]
Replies: 237
Views: 37220

Re: The next Lehman - this week? [Greek default]

livesoft wrote:Can you believe this thread is 4 years old?
I was amazed I missed this thread and started reading down. I was looking at the date ex year and it all made perfect sense. It is a good illustration of how slowly "big events" occur in real life.
by Martin
Fri Jun 26, 2015 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?
Replies: 278
Views: 43211

Re: What ratio are you stocks/bonds and how old are you?

49 yo with 100% equity. but two caveats. I am saving a fairly high percentage of my income. this years contribution will be about 25% of my total retirement portfolio. Second, I implemented a dual momentum strategy and will rely on this vs. Bonds for downside protection. (Timing vs. Dilution.) So in...
by Martin
Fri Jun 26, 2015 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads are more aggressive...
Replies: 57
Views: 8895

Re: Bogleheads are more aggressive...

I seriously doubt the average age on BH is lower than the typical investment site. My theory is that the "average" doesn't pay much attention to their asset allocation. They are likely in the default 401k fund without a clue what an asset allocation is. i was in this camp until a year ago but talkin...
by Martin
Fri Jun 26, 2015 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 37639

Is Shiller P/E 10 really static?

With the increasing volume of 401k $ and with increasing investment from overseas, is it possible that US equities are less dependent on underlying value and more dependent on increased demand? If demand drives prices then PE should increase under that scenario. make sense?
by Martin
Fri Jun 26, 2015 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Marriage, Compatibility, and Investment Assumptions – Am I being reactionary?
Replies: 23
Views: 2716

Re: Marriage, Compatibility, and Investment Assumptions – Am I being reactionary?

Each point to me seems solid but what points seem extreme to you? Where should I be revising? Extreme: 1. Looking at actuarial tables. 2. Mapping out a worst case scenario. 3. Social security estimates. 4. Tax rate of 16%. You wrote it as if was effective tax rate. That's very high for an effective...
by Martin
Thu Jun 25, 2015 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Patents and investors
Replies: 19
Views: 2904

Re: Patents and investors

My old company used to mount a silver dollar onto the plaque they gave out for the patent.
by Martin
Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Patents and investors
Replies: 19
Views: 2904

Re: Patents and investors

I hold several patents for products that you likely use everyday but I took a very different path. You describe invention then direct exploitation which is certainly one way. You could also put your skills to work for a Company creating products on their behalf, employee. Each has it pros and cons. ...
by Martin
Tue Jun 23, 2015 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does it mean to be FIRE?
Replies: 30
Views: 4568

Re: What does it mean to be FIRE?

I know many dirtbag hikers that can live off of about 10k/yr but they have literally no possessions other than those they carry of their back.
by Martin
Mon Jun 22, 2015 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do Bogleheads/BiggerPocketers think there is only one way?
Replies: 123
Views: 19611

Re: Why do Bogleheads/BiggerPocketers think there is only one way?

I am the most financially aggressive person among the siblings. I have "bad" annuities, Indexes, advisor MF, and trading accounts. I really don't care what or how other people manage their money, BH or otherwise. I am here to see and analyze what and how other people use and manage their methodolog...
by Martin
Sun Jun 21, 2015 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum across time and asset classes
Replies: 40
Views: 6869

Re: Momentum across time and asset classes

I don't know what to make of the "one great shining moment" effect. Perhaps there are MANY asset classes and/or factors that each have potential for "one great shining moment." Looking at history we only see the ones that actually happened, but perhaps ALL are equally possible. If so, that is why a...
by Martin
Sat Jun 20, 2015 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Permanent Portfolio with trend-following overlay
Replies: 8
Views: 1587

Re: The Permanent Portfolio with trend-following overlay

I follow a very similar concept though and my fund selection is very different. Given a wide variety of investment choices, I would include REIT and Int. equity at a minimum but likely split the portfolio into grouping with independent group of investments, with likely one group being sector based, ...