Search found 85 matches

by slickwillbo
Thu Jul 20, 2017 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard 403b Changes
Replies: 191
Views: 30592

Re: Vanguard 403b Changes

I have a Vanguard 403(b) through my employer - a large, private university. I haven't received such a letter yet. I don't pay any fees other than fund ERs- I assume the university is eating the record keeping fees.
by slickwillbo
Sun Jul 09, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Talk me out of long term bonds
Replies: 26
Views: 3325

Re: Talk me out of long term bonds

Someone may be able to comment on whether or not that duration is real. I think I remember some distortions in munis associated with call provisions. Note the average maturity is 17-18 years. This. Modified duration isn't necessarily accurate for callable bonds. If interest rates go down, the bonds...
by slickwillbo
Fri Apr 28, 2017 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Five year CD paying more than 10 yr. treasury
Replies: 30
Views: 5630

Re: Five year CD paying more than 10 yr. treasury

I'm sure Kevin M will be here soon to give more details, but I don't think this is at all uncommon.

I'm personally a big fan of using CDs as part of a bond allocation.
by slickwillbo
Sun Mar 26, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: GEICO vs. USAA auto insurance
Replies: 59
Views: 26272

Re: GEICO vs. USAA auto insurance

I want to chime in and agree with what baliktad said. I was 28 when I was in my first accident, with a spotless record before (and after) that. Another driver pulled out in front of me while making a left turn, totaling both cars and leaving me with minor injuries. The other driver was cited for - a...
by slickwillbo
Mon Jan 30, 2017 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock market optimism
Replies: 38
Views: 5077

Re: Stock market optimism

The market feels bubbly to me. But am I making any changes? No. Like most people who make market predictions, I've called 11 of the past 4 recessions correctly.
by slickwillbo
Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what to do if you don't want bonds
Replies: 23
Views: 2948

Re: what to do if you don't want bonds

theplayer11 wrote:How about brokered CDs? TD Ameritrade is showing 3.15% on a 5 year. Not familiar with this option.
That's a great deal (120 bp spread over the treasury). But I'm not seeing anything like that on my (non-TD) accounts.
by slickwillbo
Sat Jan 14, 2017 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: institutional herding in corporate bonds and liquidity issues-beware ETFs in this space
Replies: 59
Views: 4784

Re: institutional herding in corporate bonds and liquidity issues-beware ETFs in this space

You and I create create an open-end mutual fund with $50 each, and the fund buys a highly-rated $100 bond at par, with a maturity of six months. The next day, a liquidity squeeze dries up trading volume on bonds, leading to limited buyers and wide spreads. I ask to withdraw my $50 from the fund. To...
by slickwillbo
Sat Jan 14, 2017 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: institutional herding in corporate bonds and liquidity issues-beware ETFs in this space
Replies: 59
Views: 4784

Re: institutional herding in corporate bonds and liquidity issues-beware ETFs in this space

I hear this over and over from smart people and I just don't understand it. Can anyone produce an example of how this would happen in a significant way? Say a fund has two investors who buy in on the same day. The fund buys two bonds for $100. Now we have a liquidity crisis and the bonds market val...
by slickwillbo
Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: institutional herding in corporate bonds and liquidity issues-beware ETFs in this space
Replies: 59
Views: 4784

Re: institutional herding in corporate bonds and liquidity issues-beware ETFs in this space

My question is this: If I plan on holding bonds - actively-managed or not - with no intention to sell (or can sell flexibly), why is a mutual fund better structure than an ETF? As a long-term, flexible holder, temporary fluctuations in price from NAV won't affect me. Moreover, any investor in the f...
by slickwillbo
Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: institutional herding in corporate bonds and liquidity issues-beware ETFs in this space
Replies: 59
Views: 4784

Re: institutional herding in corporate bonds and liquidity issues-beware ETFs in this space

Slick Well if NEVER going to sell any you might be okay. But say you have a bear market in equities and you need to rebalance, so you want to sell some of your ETF and it's in time of illiquidity and now it's trading well under NAV and bid-offer spreads are very wide. Or you have spending needs bec...
by slickwillbo
Fri Jan 13, 2017 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: institutional herding in corporate bonds and liquidity issues-beware ETFs in this space
Replies: 59
Views: 4784

Re: institutional herding in corporate bonds and liquidity issues-beware ETFs in this space

Are bond ETFs really worse if you have no plans to selling the bond fund (or can sell it flexibly)? It seems that a spike in redemptions could cause mutual funds to sell their bonds during a liquidity squeeze, hurting all investors in the fund- even those who don't sell. With an ETF, those wanting ...
by slickwillbo
Thu Jan 12, 2017 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: institutional herding in corporate bonds and liquidity issues-beware ETFs in this space
Replies: 59
Views: 4784

Re: institutional herding in corporate bonds and liquidity issues-beware ETFs in this space

Are bond ETFs really worse if you have no plans to selling the bond fund (or can sell it flexibly)? It seems that a spike in redemptions could cause mutual funds to sell their bonds during a liquidity squeeze, hurting all investors in the fund- even those who don't sell. With an ETF, those wanting t...
by slickwillbo
Tue Sep 20, 2016 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A stock ETF holding another company's ETF?
Replies: 6
Views: 979

Re: A stock ETF holding another company's ETF?

That’s not even the worst of it. Have a look at the top 15 holdings of USAA’s Moderately Aggressive Fund (USCRX), with $2.3 billion in assets: iShares Core MSCI EAFE Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF US Treasury Bond 3.125% US Treasury Bond 3% Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF iShares Core MSCI Emerging Ma...
by slickwillbo
Tue Sep 06, 2016 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [403b fiduciary lawsuits: MIT Yale NYU Duke Hopkins Penn Vanderbilt Emory Columbia]
Replies: 90
Views: 12899

Re: Update: Emory & Columbia; New Fiduciary cases: 403b's at MIT Yale NYU & Duke Hopkins Penn Vanderbilt

One aspect of cases not mentioned, that universities used several administrators. I never heard of such a thing, always thought a plan had one administrator. It obviously drives up costs to participants. Question is why they used several? For the most part, "several administrators" means exactly tw...
by slickwillbo
Fri Jul 15, 2016 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5-year CD rate
Replies: 9
Views: 1784

Re: 5-year CD rate

Synchrony still offers 2%, and 2.05% on deposits >$25k.

Look for Kevin M's posts to find even better ones.
by slickwillbo
Fri Jul 01, 2016 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really bad days (RBDs) and porfolio performance
Replies: 67
Views: 11758

Re: Really bad days (RBDs) and porfolio performance

I guess I've kind of called out livesoft, but he's the guy with the RBD criteria I see the most on this board. I'm also just using the term "livesoft RBD" to define his criteria as opposed to any drop of 2.5% or more for clarity. Anyway, I've got to run for a bit, but I'm going to stir the pot a bit...
by slickwillbo
Fri Jul 01, 2016 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really bad days (RBDs) and porfolio performance
Replies: 67
Views: 11758

Re: Really bad days (RBDs) and porfolio performance

This "study" and the conclusions are trite because it's evaluating basically one strategy that enforces an arbitrary 30 day allocation plus daily rebalancing (who does that?). Evaluate rebalancing on RBDs and then one time annually to get a better look at this question. I included rebalancing bands...
by slickwillbo
Fri Jul 01, 2016 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really bad days (RBDs) and porfolio performance
Replies: 67
Views: 11758

Re: Really bad days (RBDs) and porfolio performance

livesoft wrote:Thanks for the new purple plot. :)
You didn't tell me your favorite color, so I had to guess :D
by slickwillbo
Fri Jul 01, 2016 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really bad days (RBDs) and porfolio performance
Replies: 67
Views: 11758

Re: Really bad days (RBDs) and porfolio performance

To answer a few of the questions: @greg24, @Dulocracy: I don't know exactly what livesoft does, but he has mentioned that he increases his stock allocation in response to RBDs. I'm using 5%/30 days just as a guideline because I like round numbers. You are welcome to play with the data yourself. I'm ...
by slickwillbo
Fri Jul 01, 2016 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really bad days (RBDs) and porfolio performance
Replies: 67
Views: 11758

Re: The DL on RBDs

chx wrote:
What do DL and RBD stand for?
Hi chx,

I probably should've made that more clear :happy

RBD is "really bad day," a term thrown around here for days when investments perform poorly.
DL is a term for something that's a secret. I'll change the title to make it more clear.
by slickwillbo
Fri Jul 01, 2016 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Really bad days (RBDs) and porfolio performance
Replies: 67
Views: 11758

Really bad days (RBDs) and porfolio performance

livesoft and I were having a discussion on RBD (really bad day) strategy in another thread, and I thought I'd post my final thoughts there. To see how the RBD strategy might work in practice with a traditional balanced stock/bond portfolio, I made the following portfolios: Continuous : 60% Vanguard ...
by slickwillbo
Thu Jun 30, 2016 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those that "buy" during stock market downturns...
Replies: 158
Views: 14608

Re: For those that "buy" during stock market downturns...

Fourth, as already noted, Fridays do not count as RBDs for the purposes of buying. Next-30-day return following 2.5% (or more) drops: Fridays: Average 3.32%, Standard deviation 6.34% Non-Fridays: 1.74%, Standard deviation 9.26% I mean, I hate to sound snarky, but is your strategy or criteria based ...
by slickwillbo
Thu Jun 30, 2016 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those that "buy" during stock market downturns...
Replies: 158
Views: 14608

Re: For those that "buy" during stock market downturns...

Do we have any evidence that an RBD-based strategy actually works?
by slickwillbo
Thu Jun 30, 2016 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those that "buy" during stock market downturns...
Replies: 158
Views: 14608

Re: For those that "buy" during stock market downturns...

I also think that most who buy on RBDs aren't akin to day traders and would not risk a large part of their assets buy making buys on a RBD and continue to make them as the RBDs continue until they have destroyed their portfolio and lost their shirt. I am fairly certain that several posters on this ...
by slickwillbo
Wed Jun 29, 2016 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those that "buy" during stock market downturns...
Replies: 158
Views: 14608

Re: For those that "buy" during stock market downturns...

@slickwillbo, thanks for the charts. That left-tail for the red RBD plot on the rightmost chart is worrisome, isn't it? That suggests that one should figure out how to avoid any big drops after an initial RBD. Actually, your presumption is the exact opposite of the correct answer. If you’re going t...
by slickwillbo
Wed Jun 29, 2016 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those that "buy" during stock market downturns...
Replies: 158
Views: 14608

Re: For those that "buy" during stock market downturns...

Even worse if you exclude Fridays. RBD: mean 0.053%, standard deviation 8.51% (n=93) non-RBD: mean 0.962%, standard deviation 4.97% (n=16459) My analysis is also in no way guaranteed to be free of errors - I'm using excel instead of R :happy Edit: I should also add that these are 30 trading days, no...
by slickwillbo
Wed Jun 29, 2016 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those that "buy" during stock market downturns...
Replies: 158
Views: 14608

Re: For those that "buy" during stock market downturns...

Here is the next-30-day return data for a livesoft RBD (day % change < -2.5% and day % change < the 147th highest day % change out of the previous 150). https://i.snag.gy/BQm3eJ.jpg The mean next-30-day return for livesoft RBDs is 0.706% with a standard deviation of 8.408%. The mean next-30-day retu...
by slickwillbo
Wed Jun 29, 2016 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those that "buy" during stock market downturns...
Replies: 158
Views: 14608

Re: For those that "buy" during stock market downturns...

^I was joking about about Flagship vs Dinghy. Of course, everyone can use multiple accounts. @slickwillbo, thanks for the analysis. As you know, a bona fide livesoft RBD is not a one-day drop of at least 2.5% in the S&P500 index, but other people will read your post and equate an RBD with a one-day...
by slickwillbo
Wed Jun 29, 2016 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those that "buy" during stock market downturns...
Replies: 158
Views: 14608

Re: For those that "buy" during stock market downturns...

I took historical data for the S&P 500 as far back as Yahoo! Finance would go - Jan. 3, 1950. I calculated each day’s percentage return, and the next 30 trading days’ return. I then grouped each day into a RBD (a day percentage change of less than -2.50%), or a non-RBD (all other days). The results ...
by slickwillbo
Thu May 26, 2016 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The little secret of passive investng
Replies: 14
Views: 4061

Re: The little secret of passive investng

If this is true, the return of an index fund should lag its index.

VFINX, the Vanguard S&P 500 index fund, has trailed its index by 0.12% annually over the past 15 years, despite an expense ratio of 0.16%.
by slickwillbo
Tue May 10, 2016 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taxable Account - Bonds - Diversification vs. Tax
Replies: 47
Views: 7409

Re: Taxable Account - Bonds - Diversification vs. Tax

As far as muni's are concerned the answer is none. If you belive that the bond market is efficient then the muni's are priced with regard to their risk and if they are yielding more after tax than similar duration nominal Treasuries then the muni's must be more risky. . The above doesn't make sense...
by slickwillbo
Sat Apr 30, 2016 3:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond vs Municipal Bond Funds
Replies: 66
Views: 13590

Re: Total Bond vs Municipal Bond Funds

First of all, VBMFX is 40% treasuries according to the latest annual report, all of which are non-callable. In that case, YTM = YTW. For the muni fund, I would assume that almost all of the holdings are callable, and therefore YTW > YTM. If any one of these bonds isn't called, the SEC yield will und...
by slickwillbo
Fri Apr 29, 2016 4:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond vs Municipal Bond Funds
Replies: 66
Views: 13590

Re: Total Bond vs Municipal Bond Funds

Sure, the SEC yield for VCAIX is 1.28%, but it's actually distributing 2.60 . Total bond is distributing 2.51%. Of course those could change, but the distribution yields have been relatively steady. That should change your calculations just a bit. By that measure, I have a 1 year Treasury distribut...
by slickwillbo
Thu Apr 28, 2016 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond vs Municipal Bond Funds
Replies: 66
Views: 13590

Re: Total Bond vs Municipal Bond Funds

Sure, the SEC yield for VCAIX is 1.28%, but it's actually distributing 2.60%. Total bond is distributing 2.51%.

Of course those could change, but the distribution yields have been relatively steady. That should change your calculations just a bit.
by slickwillbo
Thu Apr 28, 2016 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Almost bought an individual stock today...
Replies: 44
Views: 5794

Re: Almost bought an individual stock today...

Too bad- you would've made 12% overnight :D
by slickwillbo
Sat Mar 19, 2016 8:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Borrow money to finish basement vs using own cash
Replies: 12
Views: 2163

Re: Borrow money to finish basement vs using own cash

cheese_breath wrote:"Neither a borrower nor a lender be."

William Shakespeare
Does that mean we all need to be at 0% bonds? :happy
by slickwillbo
Sat Mar 19, 2016 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What bond funds do you use, and why?
Replies: 55
Views: 6915

Re: What bond funds do you use, and why?

Tax-deferred: VCIT (Vanguard Intermediate-term corporate)
Taxable: brokered CDs - current duration 5.05 years, YTM 2.57% (at time of purchase)
VWITX - (Vanguard Intermediate term tax-exempt)
by slickwillbo
Thu Mar 17, 2016 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How have your homes as investments done?
Replies: 212
Views: 23707

Re: How have your homes as investments done?

Bought a new townhouse in 2009 from a builder that had gone bankrupt. The price is up about 55%, plus Uncle Sam donated $8k for purchasing the home, and Georgia threw in another $1800 (I live ITP Atlanta). 2009 just happened to be when I graduated from college, purchasing the house was no great fore...
by slickwillbo
Mon Mar 07, 2016 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Active Funds in Which You Invest
Replies: 76
Views: 7588

Re: Poll: Active Funds in Which You Invest

Vanguard Intermediate-term muni (VWITX)

And the following 2 international funds predate my indexing days, but have done very well (and selling them would lead to lots o' capital gains):

Matthews Asia Dividend Fund (MAPIX)
Oakmark International (OAKIX)
by slickwillbo
Fri Mar 04, 2016 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% US Equities argument: "We spend in Dollars"
Replies: 49
Views: 6457

Re: 100% US Equities argument: "We spend in Dollars"

2. Did currency hedging prevent the EM fund from taking an unmodulated dive in the last few years... or did hedging have a buffering effect? To try to answer this question, here is a chart of Vanguard's developed markets index (which tracks a index similar to the MSCI EAFE; VDVIX), the MSCI EAFE in...
by slickwillbo
Fri Mar 04, 2016 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% US Equities argument: "We spend in Dollars"
Replies: 49
Views: 6457

Re: 100% US Equities argument: "We spend in Dollars"

I see owning foreign equities as buying a form of insurance, similar to owning TIPs. In the long run it probably won't matter much, but you never know. This. Japan is the #1 reason I invest in foreign equities. Well, and the current strength of the dollar and low valuations abroad make it look enti...
by slickwillbo
Mon Feb 15, 2016 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which fund is riskier- total bond market or baird muni fund?
Replies: 9
Views: 1424

Re: Which fund is riskier- total bond market or baird muni fund?

This fund (BMBIX) is taking some kind of risk somewhere. Either that or they are calculating SEC Yield significantly different than Vanguard does. As of 12/31, it was yielding 1.55%. Vanguards IT Muni fund (which had more credit risk, more duration risk, and a lower expense ratio) was yielding 1.63...
by slickwillbo
Fri Feb 05, 2016 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 hedge fund contest
Replies: 250
Views: 40423

Re: 2016 hedge fund contest

It's 3:59 PM, can I buy to cover TWTR?
by slickwillbo
Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equal weight index funds
Replies: 75
Views: 16445

Re: Equal weight index funds

RSP is essentially a mid-cap fund since it weights the lower-valued companies in the S&P 500 the same as, say, Apple. Here's a chart comparing Vanguard's mid-cap index fund (VIMAX) and RSP.

Image
by slickwillbo
Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Powerball a good play?
Replies: 48
Views: 4615

Re: Is the Powerball a good play?

dl42 wrote:In the dice example, if you pay $1 for a chance to win $6 the expected value is $1. You don't get the ticket price back in the lottery so if you pay $1 for a chance to win $5 instead the expected value drops to $0.83.
Perhaps nitpicking here, but wouldn't the EV be -$0.17, not (+)$0.83?
by slickwillbo
Tue Jan 05, 2016 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 hedge fund contest
Replies: 250
Views: 40423

Re: 2016 hedge fund contest

I'm already beating the market.

You, too can join my fund for 2 and 20. I'll waive the 5.75% load if you call within the next hour.
by slickwillbo
Mon Jan 04, 2016 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 hedge fund contest
Replies: 250
Views: 40423

Re: 2016 hedge fund contest

I also just realized two of my picks aren't on the Russell 3000... could you please just make my entry without the two that aren't? Sorry :?

Yellen & Bernanke Unconstrained Bond Fund

Long:
XOM
AMGN

Short:
FB
TWTR
by slickwillbo
Sun Jan 03, 2016 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 hedge fund contest
Replies: 250
Views: 40423

Re: 2016 hedge fund contest

Yellen & Bernanke Unconstrained Bond Fund

Long:
ETE
XOM
AMGN

Short:
FB
TWTR
NBG
by slickwillbo
Sun Jan 03, 2016 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 22547

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

I think the strong dollar is a good argument for buying international today .. Not so much developed market valuations - which are perhaps only 10-20% lower than US (sector adjusted) Yep. If currency-hedged international indices were the norm, everyone here would be talking about how great internat...