Search found 1013 matches

by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How long would you back a losing horse, to Stay The Course?
Replies: 151
Views: 9548

Re: How long would you back a losing horse, to Stay The Course?

These asset classes seem to go in and out of favor for 7-10 years at a time. In and out. In and out. It depends on your time horizon, if it is less than 20 years probably not a good strategy. Over 20 years you have a reasonable strategy. But you have to buy, hold, REBALANCE when it outperforms AND u...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Fri Feb 26, 2021 11:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Masks on airlines - how do you get a 3 year old to comply?
Replies: 23
Views: 2181

Re: Masks on airlines - how do you get a 3 year old to comply?

Buy or Create some sort of wrap around mask secured all the way around the 3 year old's head so they cannot take it off if they want to.

Otherwise you are rolling the dice and may have to deplane when asked to.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 583
Views: 43676

Re: Bonds in free fall

Wow this may be the steepest yield spike yet if it holds up. People sure are spooked about inflation. I think people had completely written inflation off since it hasn’t appeared in a long time. Glad I own inflation hedges. What inflation hedges do you include in your portfolio and at what %?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting Residence In Another State to Pay Less Taxes?
Replies: 30
Views: 3375

Re: Getting Residence In Another State to Pay Less Taxes?

There is a movement to move away from these "High-Tax" states.

If you are on Facebook there are some very large groups of people helping each other with this refugee-type movement.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seeing Signs of Market Top?
Replies: 73
Views: 4648

Re: Seeing Signs of Market Top?

Zero rates = There is no alternative (TINA) to Equities so all cash is poured into Stocks.

Good points all around, thanks everyone for the feedback.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seeing Signs of Market Top?
Replies: 73
Views: 4648

Re: Seeing Signs of Market Top?

With that said, I don't know how to take advantage of it so I think a 50/50 with rebalancing bands is prudent.

Anyone use put options as a hedge strategy when markets get frothy?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seeing Signs of Market Top?
Replies: 73
Views: 4648

Re: Seeing Signs of Market Top?

livesoft wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:51 pm
Fat-Tailed Contagion wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:42 pmAnyone seeing other signs?
I rebalanced today by exchanging out of equities. That is definitely a sure sign of an intermediate Market Top.
What does exchanging out of equities mean?

What percentage of equities did you sell and what did you buy?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seeing Signs of Market Top?
Replies: 73
Views: 4648

Re: Seeing Signs of Market Top?

The only reason I can see to say this is not a top is the amount of newly printed fiat being pumped into the system couple with 0% interest rates.

That dynamic can continue to boost stock returns to irrational levels, but how far out of touch can they go?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seeing Signs of Market Top?
Replies: 73
Views: 4648

Seeing Signs of Market Top?

1. Shiller PE 35.6 https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

2. Many anecdotal stories of newbies opening up retail trading accounts, RobinHood, WeBull apps, etc

Anyone seeing other signs?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Mon Feb 08, 2021 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replacing old Washer & Dryer
Replies: 23
Views: 1620

Re: Replacing Washer & Dryer

The opening for them is 59" x 35".

The Washer is 110v electric and the Dryer is 100v electric + gas.

Any more suggestions on potential replacements?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Mon Feb 08, 2021 1:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Critique My "Simplified" Portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 595

Critique My "Simplified" Portfolio

50/50 Stock/Bond

Stock Side:
50% TSM (Taxable)
25% US Small Value (Roth + IRA)
25% Total Intl Stock (IRA)

Bond Side:
50% TBM (IRA)
25% TIPS Fund (IRA)
25% VLGSX - LT Treasury Fund (IRA)
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replacing old Washer & Dryer
Replies: 23
Views: 1620

Re: Replacing Washer & Dryer (Gas)

We have three sets of the LG top loaders at our place. Two in the main house and one in the pool house and after three years of use they have been bullet proof to this point. We always buy local from a great appliance store that services what they sell and they told us this is the go to for them. W...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Mon Feb 01, 2021 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Replacing old Washer & Dryer
Replies: 23
Views: 1620

Replacing old Washer & Dryer

I need help with suggestions on replacing old Hotpoint Washer (110v) & Dryer (110v + gas).

Any suggestions on best brands & places to purchase?

Getting help with taking away old ones & installing new ones?

Thanks! Fatty
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Jan 26, 2021 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation-Protected Portfolio ?
Replies: 58
Views: 4093

Re: Inflation-Protected Portfolio ?

Fat-Tailed Contagion, When I think of an inflation protected portfolio, I think of William Bernstein's liability matching portfolio and some kind of non rolling TIPS ladder....or the equivalent in TIPS funds. Is that what you're asking? Yes, that is what I am asking. What TIPS fund would you use? W...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:36 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Happy 97th Birthday, Taylor Larimore
Replies: 146
Views: 6023

Re: Happy 97th Birthday, Taylor Larimore

Happy Birthday, Taylor!

Thank you for your service & inspiration.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: favorite investing books??
Replies: 30
Views: 1849

Re: favorite investing books??

Ben Graham

William Bernstein

Jack Bogle
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Jan 19, 2021 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation-Protected Portfolio ?
Replies: 58
Views: 4093

Inflation-Protected Portfolio ?

What does a good Inflation-Protected Protfolio look like?

Are you making any adustments to your AA that skew toward protecting against future inflation?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Fri Jan 15, 2021 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On what are you most bullish?
Replies: 197
Views: 10722

Re: On what are you most bullish?

Truth vs. falsehood
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Fri Jan 15, 2021 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Favorite Sites for Investment Info, Trends, Research?
Replies: 5
Views: 369

Favorite Sites for Investment Info, Trends, Research?

What are your favorite sites to gather info, trends, research, etc. to make investment decisions besides Bogleheads dot org ?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What might cause a market correction ( 15-20% ) again
Replies: 105
Views: 8335

Re: What might cause a market correction ( 15-20% ) again

Almost an infinite data set of possibilities. Create an Investment Policy Strategy with Rebalancing Program and stick to it. Re-evaluate the IPS every 6-12 months and if nothing significantly changes, stick with it. If something changed, run it by 3-5 people before implementing your new IPS and stic...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Mon Jan 11, 2021 4:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What kind of car do Bogleheads like to drive?
Replies: 470
Views: 39256

Re: What kind of car do Bogleheads like to drive?

Would Tesla 3 be the new Boglehead car due to cost savings on gas?

Has anyone done a comprehensive cost analysis of holding a Tesla 3 (or similar) to a Toyota Camry for 7 years?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sun Dec 06, 2020 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Robinhood "videogame"
Replies: 162
Views: 16874

Re: The Robinhood "videogame"

Kind of reminds me of the old late 90s E-trade days just before the Tech Bubble popped.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Nov 26, 2020 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Look at current PE 10-actionable?
Replies: 78
Views: 4299

Re: Look at current PE 10-actionable?

Use Ben Graham's approach 50/50 + rebalance using 5/25 bands.

If you are really scared consider 25/75.

Max of 75 stock
Min of 25 stock
Rebalance using 5/25 bands
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taylor Sends His Best to Fellow Bogleheads
Replies: 334
Views: 26693

Re: Taylor Sends His Best to Fellow Bogleheads

Godspeed & Good Health Taylor!

You are an America Hero!

Thank you.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Fri Nov 13, 2020 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bought BTC for older friend - TAX QUESTION
Replies: 6
Views: 604

Bought BTC for older friend - TAX QUESTION

SCENARIO: Bought BitCoin for an older friend with friend's money using CashApp. Now the friend wants to sell it (after gains). Can I transfer the Bitcoin to him to avoid Capitals Gains taxes? Is there a way to transfer the Capital Gains to him for tax purposes in some way? Thanks for any advice.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Yahoo Inbox Emails Vanished?
Replies: 23
Views: 1397

Re: Yahoo Inbox Emails Vanished?

The account is fine, I just woke up yesterday and the emails I keep in my Inbox were all gone.

They are important emails I keep there as reminders over the last few months.

Any suggestions?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help me Buy iMac for $1,000 range?
Replies: 9
Views: 817

Help me Buy iMac for $1,000 range?

Anyone know how to get a good value for a new iMac desktop?

All suggestions appreciated!
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Mon Oct 26, 2020 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Yahoo Inbox Emails Vanished?
Replies: 23
Views: 1397

Yahoo Inbox Emails Vanished?

My Yahoo Inbox was deleted?

I assume the Yahoo server erased them mistakenly - anyone know how to get them back?

Also, after this episode, I am looking for a better, more secure Email solution.

Any suggestions on better Email solutions?

Thank you!
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TAX IMPLICATIONS: Buy or Lease Car for 1099 Business?
Replies: 3
Views: 324

Re: TAX IMPLICATIONS: Buy or Lease Car for 1099 Business?

Legit source: https://smallbusiness.findlaw.com/business-taxes/can-i-claim-a-car-lease-tax-deduction.html Actual expense of a lease will be more than the standard mileage deduction, but note what it says about the down payment - you may have to effectively "depreciate" that over the life ...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Capital Gains Carryover Worksheet ?
Replies: 5
Views: 295

Re: Capital Gains Carryover Worksheet ?

Is it the instructions for Capital Loss Carryover Worksheet—Lines 6 and 14 that are confusing, or does reading that help? Thanks 5K, so it looks like Line 8 is the one to use for the following year value? I am amending a return for 2018 using 2017 Capital Gains Carryover Worksheet and the wording s...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sat Aug 15, 2020 11:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Capital Gains Carryover Worksheet ?
Replies: 5
Views: 295

Capital Gains Carryover Worksheet ?

Which value is the right one to use to enter into the following years tax return?

The language in the directions is confusing.

Thanks for any help on this!
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sat Aug 15, 2020 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TAX IMPLICATIONS: Buy or Lease Car for 1099 Business?
Replies: 3
Views: 324

TAX IMPLICATIONS: Buy or Lease Car for 1099 Business?

Can someone point me toward the tax deductions possible for buying or leasing a car for a 1099 Independent Contractor type business?

Thanks for any help!
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Congratulations, You’ve won a million dollars ....
Replies: 20
Views: 5084

Re: Congratulations You’ve won a million dollars ....

Call 3 insurance companies and get 3 quotes for best estimate of market price.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any good deals on TVs?
Replies: 12
Views: 656

Re: Any good deals on TVs?

https://www.bestbuy.com/site/tcl-40-class-led-3-series-1080p-smart-hdtv-roku-tv/6302321.p?skuId=6302321 https://www.bestbuy.com/site/insignia-40-1080p-hdtv-led/6398122.p?skuId=6398122 TCL is a good budget brand. They get good reviews mostly. Is TCL better quality than Insignia in your opinion?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any good deals on TVs?
Replies: 12
Views: 656

Re: Any good deals on TVs?

runner3081 wrote: Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:48 pm slickdeals.net

$200 will get you about a 50".
Very cool, thank you.

Any brand recommendations?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Aug 04, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any good deals on TVs?
Replies: 12
Views: 656

Re: Any good deals on TVs?

I would go to your local Best Buy (mask on) and look at the open box items. Items that were opened and returned. $100 to $200 is a thin budget. Maybe a 40" Insignia brand. Always verify the number of HDMI inputs. What size do you want for that budget? I was hoping you were looking for an LG OL...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any good deals on TVs?
Replies: 12
Views: 656

Any good deals on TVs?

Looking around at Best Buy for a good deal on a TV in the $100-200 range.

Any suggestions or ideas on best deals in market?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard "sunsetting" CFP consultations
Replies: 137
Views: 11979

Re: Vanguard "sunsetting" CFP consultations

How would one move to Fidelity if they have been holding Vanguard Mutual Funds for many years with large unrealized capital gains?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Jul 07, 2020 6:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How To File An Amended Return for 2018 & 2019 Extension?
Replies: 2
Views: 249

How To File An Amended Return for 2018 & 2019 Extension?

Problems:

1. How to file an amended return for 2018, H&Block software did not import Capital Loss Worksheet data from 2017.

HR Block online software was used for past 5 years.

2. How to file an extension for 2019 taxes? It was a low income year, don't expect to owe any tax.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Jun 11, 2020 5:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tips to stick to a weight loss diet?
Replies: 295
Views: 19420

Re: Tips to stick to a weight loss diet?

Pick a 6 hour window to eat each day and eat whatever you want. Dont eat or drink calories the other 18 hours. Try it for 30 days and see what happens. Once you get into the routine it becomes pretty easy to stay on. I've tried this and ate on average 2500 calories during that window. I gained weig...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tips to stick to a weight loss diet?
Replies: 295
Views: 19420

Re: Tips to stick to a weight loss diet?

Pick a 6 hour window to eat each day and eat whatever you want. Dont eat or drink calories the other 18 hours. Try it for 30 days and see what happens. Once you get into the routine it becomes pretty easy to stay on. I've tried this and ate on average 2500 calories during that window. I gained weig...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 521
Views: 22284

Re: Market makes no sense

Makes perfect sense.

Tax reductions, Deregulation, Stimulus, Economy Opening Back Up.

The market is forward looking and discounting cash flows back to the present value.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tips to stick to a weight loss diet?
Replies: 295
Views: 19420

Re: Tips to stick to a weight loss diet?

Pick a 6 hour window to eat each day and eat whatever you want.

Dont eat or drink calories the other 18 hours.

Try it for 30 days and see what happens.

Once you get into the routine it becomes pretty easy to stay on.
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Mon May 04, 2020 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stimulus help for small businesses, sole proprietors, s-corp etc
Replies: 627
Views: 36372

Re: Stimulus help for small businesses, sole proprietors, s-corp etc

Anyone know whether an Independent Contractor can get a $1,000 EIDL loan AND also PUA benefits?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sun May 03, 2020 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stimulus help for small businesses, sole proprietors, s-corp etc
Replies: 627
Views: 36372

Re: Stimulus help for small businesses, sole proprietors, s-corp etc

An individual is most definitely not supposed to accept both PPP funds and PUA. Can an Independent Contractor get an EIDL grant & PUA benefits? The consensus here in the threads is that as long as you don't double dip for any period in time, it is OK to have any two or more programs. For exampl...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sat May 02, 2020 11:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stimulus help for small businesses, sole proprietors, s-corp etc
Replies: 627
Views: 36372

Re: Stimulus help for small businesses, sole proprietors, s-corp etc

An individual is most definitely not supposed to accept both PPP funds and PUA. Can an Independent Contractor get an EIDL grant & PUA benefits? The consensus here in the threads is that as long as you don't double dip for any period in time, it is OK to have any two or more programs. For exampl...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sat May 02, 2020 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stimulus help for small businesses, sole proprietors, s-corp etc
Replies: 627
Views: 36372

Re: Stimulus help for small businesses, sole proprietors, s-corp etc

Matigas wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 11:16 am An individual is most definitely not supposed to accept both PPP funds and PUA.
Can an Independent Contractor get an EIDL grant & PUA benefits?
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Sat May 02, 2020 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Treasury (VGLT) vs. Ext Duration Treasury (EDV)
Replies: 13
Views: 1833

Re: Long Term Treasury (VGLT) vs. Ext Duration Treasury (EDV)

2. I bet the folks employing a Long Term Treasury strategy in their portfolio are quite happy this week! Yes, quite happy. What funds or ETFs are you using for your AA (which I see in your sig). I hold both ETF and mutual fund versions of the Vanguard Long Treasury index (VGLT / VLGSX). Why did you...
by Fat-Tailed Contagion
Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taleb Says Portfolios to ‘Blow Up’ Without Tail Hedges
Replies: 43
Views: 4841

Re: Taleb Says Portfolios to ‘Blow Up’ Without Tail Hedges

What is the best "insurance" investment and how much of portfolio?