Search found 1143 matches

Mon May 25, 2020 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Open Social Security strategy results question
Replies: 55
Views: 3586

Re: Open Social Security strategy results question

I think you should convert up to the top of the 22% bracket. That means converting now at 22% to avoid paying 22% later. The reason to do this is because you are married. Look what happens to the tax hump after one of you dies, and the single survivor, with just a survivor SS benefit, has a RMD of ...
Sat May 23, 2020 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Open Social Security strategy results question
Replies: 55
Views: 3586

Re: Open Social Security strategy results question

Given the "...in my spreadsheet" comment, you might find the personal finance toolbox Excel spreadsheet useful for comparing your results to its, or taking some of its formulas for use in yours, etc. Thanks you guys for all the help and the tip on this calculator. I love to do everything in a sprea...
Fri May 22, 2020 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Open Social Security strategy results question
Replies: 55
Views: 3586

Re: Open Social Security strategy results question

No. With SS = \$58k, if you are past the hump, you are past the 12% tax bracket. Thanks for pointing that out. My exact amount of SS in my calculations is \$58,459. I computed that I am past the hump at other income greater than \$66,171. So, taxable income = .85 * 58459 + 66171 = \$115861 which is gre...
Thu May 21, 2020 10:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Open Social Security strategy results question
Replies: 55
Views: 3586

Re: Open Social Security strategy results question

Let me try to make my point a different way. My amount of non-SS other income needed to make the maximum 85% of Social Security taxable for my SS amount of \$58K is around \$66K (if my wife takes her SS at 62) or around \$71K (if my wife takes her SS at 70). So if I have that much non-SS other income, ...
Thu May 21, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Open Social Security strategy results question
Replies: 55
Views: 3586

Re: Open Social Security strategy results question

I've been giving myself a crash course on SS and Roth conversions the past few days. Some of the info here (the wiki as well) has been great. I thank anyone who has made contributions. I do understand the SS hump in essence caused by your next dollar of income bringing in more taxable SS income. For...
Wed May 20, 2020 8:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Open Social Security strategy results question
Replies: 55
Views: 3586

Re: Open Social Security strategy results question

Not only does taking SS early use up some of the room that Roth conversions would use in the same tax bracket, but the conversions MAY make more of the SS be taxed. Paying more tax because of the SS is the same as getting SS minus that increase in tax. That would completely change your Open Social ...
Tue May 19, 2020 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Open Social Security strategy results question
Replies: 55
Views: 3586

Re: Open Social Security strategy results question

Oddly enough, if I enter the max income for a Roth conversion of \$103,350 (\$78,950+24,400) to max out the 12% bracket, Turbotax comes out with a total tax of \$9,092 which would be \$6 more than what the top of the 12% bracket should be. Because tax tables go in chunks of \$100, so \$103,350 is rounded...
Tue May 19, 2020 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Open Social Security strategy results question
Replies: 55
Views: 3586

Re: Open Social Security strategy results question

When I run Open Social Security, I get me filing at 64 and DW (higher earner) at 70. Changing the death dates or discount rate just a little results in me filing at 62 - which is what it said in previous years. So, right now the default discount rate is -0.26%. Maybe that's the best estimate for th...
Tue May 19, 2020 7:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Open Social Security strategy results question
Replies: 55
Views: 3586

Re: Open Social Security strategy results question

I haven't planned this all out yet, but I would imagine I would convert to the top of the current 12% bracket (AGI \$78,950 MFJ) per year for 10 years (or whatever that tax bracket turns into when I retire). That is well below the Medicare high-income surcharge (IRMAA) currently at \$170,000 for MFJ....
Mon May 18, 2020 10:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Open Social Security strategy results question
Replies: 55
Views: 3586

Re: Open Social Security strategy results question

For example, if my 401K is large enough and my RMDs will generate a decent amount of taxes, perhaps taking her SS and 62+1month would be better overall since it will lower our taxes a bit when those RMDs start to come in. Or perhaps delay her SS by several years so more traditional to Roth conversi...
Mon May 18, 2020 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security is an asset....yet again
Replies: 129
Views: 5682

Re: Social Security is an asset....yet again

Maybe I didn't notice but did the author include the 20%+ reduction in benefits that will occur in the early 2030s? Is this the currently projected shortfall or something specific that is already slated to change?? Just started looking a bit further out at retirement issues so this is of interest.....
Mon May 18, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Open Social Security strategy results question
Replies: 55
Views: 3586

Re: Open Social Security strategy results question

For example, if my 401K is large enough and my RMDs will generate a decent amount of taxes, perhaps taking her SS and 62+1month would be better overall since it will lower our taxes a bit when those RMDs start to come in. Or perhaps delay her SS by several years so more traditional to Roth conversi...
Mon May 18, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Open Social Security strategy results question
Replies: 55
Views: 3586

Re: Open Social Security strategy results question

Sounds to me this calculator is more complicated than I originally thought (especially if it assumes when you start SS early, you will invest that non SS money). I am beginning to understand the impact of the death rates for the married couple, who dies first and who earns more money. Thank you Mike...
Sun May 17, 2020 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Open Social Security strategy results question
Replies: 55
Views: 3586

Re: Open Social Security strategy results question

Thanks for the replies. I am just starting to look into SS. So, let me back up a bit and ask how this works in general. My hunch was my death date, according to the tables, was the break even point. In other words, no matter when I started to take SS, if I died on that day I would have received the ...
Sat May 16, 2020 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Open Social Security strategy results question
Replies: 55
Views: 3586

Open Social Security strategy results question

I was playing around with the Open Social Security calculator to understand my optimal strategy. I have made a decent amount more than my wife. The optimal strategy was for her was to start taking her benefits early (Age 62 and 7 months) and for me to wait till as late as possible (age 70). I unders...
Wed May 13, 2020 11:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: after tax 401k contribution or taxable brokerage
Replies: 33
Views: 1474

Re: after tax 401k contribution or taxable brokerage

If you don't somehow move it into a Roth, then I'm not a huge fan. If you invest in a taxable account in stocks, you will pay capital gains when you sell and you have the option of selling whenever you want. If you invest in the after-tax 401K in stocks, you will pay ordinary income taxes when you w...
Mon May 11, 2020 6:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What age do you use for retirement end date?
Replies: 68
Views: 4094

Re: What age do you use for retirement end date?

Even though my parents died in their 70s, I plan to stay active well past that point playing tennis, basketball, bike-riding, kayaking, paddle-boarding, roller-blading, hiking and I hope many more activities I haven't even tried yet. Use it or lose it. I personally put down 100 when asked.
Sat May 09, 2020 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Would you go with a bond index fund or a 3% Guaranteed fund?
Replies: 54
Views: 4561

Re: Would you go with a bond index fund or a 3% Guaranteed fund?

There are a group of these kind of funds, they do have differences, that seem to go by slightly different names such as stable value funds and others. In general, trading some liquidity for a higher rate seems like a good deal. The one in my 401K has a 10 year average of 3.13% (5.77% over it's life)...
Wed May 06, 2020 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding bonds and Covid-19
Replies: 15
Views: 1652

Re: Understanding bonds and Covid-19

With good online savings rates at about 1.5%, I certainly wouldn't leave it in a MM fund earning less than 0.6%, especially since that MM yield will be declining to about 0.1% over the next few months. Online savings rates probably also will decline, but if the post-2008 years are any indication, t...
Wed May 06, 2020 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding bonds and Covid-19
Replies: 15
Views: 1652

Re: Understanding bonds and Covid-19

Thanks for the explanations. Let me make sure I got part of this correct - If the current price of a bond fund is high, you could make back any future drop in price with higher future yields. If the current price of a bond fund is low, the opposite would happen - you would gain on any increase in pr...
Tue May 05, 2020 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding bonds and Covid-19
Replies: 15
Views: 1652

Re: Understanding bonds and Covid-19

I understand not timing stocks. They have an upward slope long-term and you have no idea what they will do in the short-term. Bonds, however, do not have an upward slope in the long-term (at least as far as the price is concerned). So, does it make sense buying a bond fund when the price is very hig...
Mon May 04, 2020 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding bonds and Covid-19
Replies: 15
Views: 1652

Re: Understanding bonds and Covid-19

Thanks for the responses. It does help understand. So, speculation is not a factor. That sounds like the easy part of the question. The inverse relationship is slowly sinking in. The part I still don't get is do I care about the price of a bond or a bond fund? Vanguard's total bond fund has an avera...
Mon May 04, 2020 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share your Re-Balancing Strategy
Replies: 25
Views: 1679

Re: Share your Re-Balancing Strategy

I recently (because of the last few months) decided to go to a more dynamic AA model following some over-reblancing that got me out of whack. 46% stock - when I feel valuations are very high 50% stock - the majority of time 54% stock - when I feel valuations are very low My rebalancing bands are an ...
Mon May 04, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding bonds and Covid-19
Replies: 15
Views: 1652

Understanding bonds and Covid-19

Trying not to butcher this question as I have always found bonds confusing to understand. I generally understand the inverse relationship between interest rates and bond prices (and bond funds as well). As such, I thought that if you hold a bond (or bond fund) for a certain number of years then it r...
Sat May 02, 2020 8:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it safe to store financial statements in the cloud?
Replies: 48
Views: 3385

Re: Is it safe to store financial statements in the cloud?

I have wondered what someone can do with those statements. For example, I store my end-of-year Vanguard statements. If someone got a hold of them, what could they do? It's not like they can call up Vanguard and withdraw the money. There are some items I wold be concerned about - my SS#, passwords to...
Fri May 01, 2020 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to rebalance by selling stocks?
Replies: 24
Views: 1998

Re: Time to rebalance by selling stocks?

I have a general question on rebalancing, i.e. without specifics to the current situation apart from it being a time of high volatility. What is the conceptual reason not to rebalance more frequently? I know many will have an IPS that says to balance every X months etc. This is presumably mostly fo...
Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to rebalance by selling stocks?
Replies: 24
Views: 1998

Re: Time to rebalance by selling stocks?

Well, I just rebalanced. I was at 76.8/23.2 and my allocation is 70/30 with 5% bands. I also have 25% bands on individual funds. As a result I sold total US market and small caps (which have been doing spectacularly well recently) to buy Vanguard intermediate term tax-exempt bonds. I feel like an i...
Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to rebalance by selling stocks?
Replies: 24
Views: 1998

Re: Time to rebalance by selling stocks?

I try to maintain my target asset allocation as much as I can with monthly additions to my brokerage accounts from my income. However, if near-term future additions wouldn’t be sufficient to keep asset allocation within reasonable rebalancing bands then rebalancing is appropriate if you’re trying t...
Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to rebalance by selling stocks?
Replies: 24
Views: 1998

Time to rebalance by selling stocks?

I am pretty sure this will be the quickest I went from buying stocks to selling stocks. I bought on the way down and am now almost at my trigger point to sell. One more up day and I will probably hit it. Are others in the same position?
Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has your AA Changed recently?
Replies: 12
Views: 657

Re: Has your AA Changed recently?

I am 54 years old. I did firm something up because of the last few years. I had this habit of over-rebalancing in extreme markets (really the last few years) and really got away from my AA because of it. I was able to use this opportunity to get back to where my AA was but I decided to go to a more ...
Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's it! Commodity ETFs is snake oil! I'm out!!!
Replies: 75
Views: 7262

Re: That's it! Commodity ETFs is snake oil! I'm out!!!

Apropos of nothing, "made me peek..." Blue, VCMDX, the trendy new Vanguard Commodity Strategy Fund Orange, Morningstar's category average for commodities funds Green, PCRIX, PIMCO Commodity Real Return Strategy, one of the oldest such funds and widely praised by commodity fund advocates Yellow, sto...
Fri Apr 17, 2020 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How are you exercising with gym closures
Replies: 111
Views: 5808

Re: How are you exercising with gym closures

I try to mix it up. Once a day do some kind of cardio: Run, Hike, Roller blade, bike, kayak, walk. In addition, I do weights in my basement twice a week. Hoping to do get an extra walk in every day and do a yoga routine once a week.
Fri Apr 17, 2020 6:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Government stimulus payments]
Replies: 351
Views: 27145

Re: [Government stimulus payments]

I had a refund direct deposited to my bank account in 2018 but owed a tad in 2019. When I visited https://www.irs.gov/coronavirus/economic-impact-payments it showed that the IRS did not have direct deposit bank information in their database. So I had to enter it. Point is, I'd check the link regard...
Thu Apr 16, 2020 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's it! Commodity ETFs is snake oil! I'm out!!!
Replies: 75
Views: 7262

Re: That's it! Commodity ETFs is snake oil! I'm out!!!

Sounds to me like some people are selling at it's lowest point. Not advocating anything, but it makes you wonder.
Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What in the world is propping up this market?
Replies: 206
Views: 20748

Re: What in the world is propping up this market?

When something is not as expected, I think it is sometimes worthwhile to think outside the box. I have always thought there was some shadiness on Wall Street. I never thought it drove the market as a whole and I never thought there was anything I could do about it (except maybe vote a certain way). ...
Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stimulus payment question - dependent in 2019 not a dependent in 2020
Replies: 7
Views: 357

Re: Stimulus payment question - dependent in 2019 not a dependent in 2020

The black hole here is if you have a dependent that is over 17. They don't get the \$500 for being a dependent (because too old) but they also don't get the \$1,200 because they are not independent.
Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How often do you login and review your investment accounts?
Replies: 68
Views: 2403

Re: How often do you login and review your investment accounts?

I usually check every few months. This past month has been daily. I also never look at futures, but I have found myself looking at the futures. It has become part of my morning routine during this virus confinement.
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: No news from Vanguard on RMD changes?
Replies: 31
Views: 2631

FYI: If you have automatic RMD withdrawals set up, Vanguard will still do them this year

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek] Wasn't sure how Vanguard was going to handle the automatic RMDs this year, given that there are no RMDs this year. I gave them a call and was told they plan to keep things as they were - they will take out your RMD as if it were a RMD. If you w...
Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Words of Wisdom William Bernstein_chat w/Ben Carlson
Replies: 75
Views: 10516

Re: Words of Wisdom William Bernstein_chat w/Ben Carlson

Anyone have any thoughts about stable value funds inside 401Ks in place of treasuries/CDs?
Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I keep paying fitness center fees while it is closed?
Replies: 114
Views: 6260

Re: Should I keep paying fitness center fees while it is closed?

So I have a yearly \$30 fee and a \$29.99 monthly fee. The \$30 fee was put on my CC at the end of March. Since I (and them) expect the gym to open again within months, I'm ok paying that one. The monthly fees were frozen as of April 1. Everyone paid their bill in March. So everyone paid more than they...
Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296689

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:32 am
Seems like the professionals are taking the individual buy and hold stay the course investors for fools. They are (and have been) unloading while individual investors buy on the dip and / or rebalance.
Please explain why you think that is? Are there really so many buy/hold investors?
Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Probability of V shaped Rebound in Stocks
Replies: 82
Views: 7642

Re: Probability of V shaped Rebound in Stocks

I have posted this prediction before: Since everyone is just guessing here as to the shape of the recovery, I predict something more in the middle. I predict a sharp increase to approximately half way back and then sideways for a long time. My reasoning is based on two ideas - 1) We were do for a co...
Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: DOT: Airlines must offer refunds for cancelled flights (not just credits)
Replies: 109
Views: 9107

Re: Any Airlines Issuing Actual Refunds

I guess I blew it. Should have NOT cancelled and wait until the airlines cancels. Delta told me that if I canceled my flight and received a credit and the airline subsequently cancels the flight, they will refund the money if I then call. So, you may not have blown it assuming the flight was actual...
Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Share what worked in your plan during the crisis
Replies: 103
Views: 6962

Re: Share what worked in your plan during the crisis

To me, what is unique during this crisis has been the speed of things. Hitting rebalancing points in days, rather than years. I have found it comforting to have my next move planned out assuming tomorrow will bring a 10% increase or a 10% decrease. I knew exactly what I was going to do before the da...
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296689

Re: Coronavirus and the market

A sustained V-shaped recovery seems out of the question in my mind. I will not be surprised if stocks go down in the near future and then go sideways for quite a while. Since everyone is just guessing here as to the shape of the recovery, I predict something more in the middle. I predict a sharp in...
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling on the way up and buying on the way down - don't want to be a market timer
Replies: 14
Views: 1381

Re: Selling on the way up and buying on the way down - don't want to be a market timer

You did not answer my question. Have you benchmarked your solution versus a fixed AA with 5/25 rebalancing? I made money from my REIT Index fund through 2008/2009 crash. My 5/25 rebalancing forced me to sell right before the crash. Conversely, my 5/25 forced me to rebalance last week by selling my ...
Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling on the way up and buying on the way down - don't want to be a market timer
Replies: 14
Views: 1381

Re: Selling on the way up and buying on the way down - don't want to be a market timer

OP, So, you adjust your AA based on how you feel about the market. Is that correct? Why do you think that you are doing better than a fixed AA with 5/25 rebalancing? KlangFool I guess we have the full range of investors around here. Some make a fixed AA and will never change no matter what is happe...
Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling on the way up and buying on the way down - don't want to be a market timer
Replies: 14
Views: 1381

Re: Selling on the way up and buying on the way down - don't want to be a market timer

I don't view this as fun money. Although I believe (or think I believe) in the buy and hold philosophy, I don't believe you should do anything blindly. I am comfortable in extreme situations (hard to define but that doesn't mean you don't try) making small modifications in those situations. The past...
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling on the way up and buying on the way down - don't want to be a market timer
Replies: 14
Views: 1381

Re: Selling on the way up and buying on the way down - don't want to be a market timer

To be honest, I don't think any of this nibbling at the edges amounts to much. That is true. If you are overweight (or overebalance) by 5% and the market moves 20% in your favor, then that is only a 1% outperformance versus a benchmark. So if the market moves 10% in your favor that is only a 0.5% o...
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling on the way up and buying on the way down - don't want to be a market timer
Replies: 14
Views: 1381

Re: Selling on the way up and buying on the way down - don't want to be a market timer

I think I still believe there are extremes which would be hard to quantify in an IPS where I want to be a little more aggressive. To be honest, I have thought we were in such an extreme for the past few years. That is why I was tempted to break past my bands. But I think, with these lessons learned,...