Search found 538 matches

by Gufomel
Wed Sep 30, 2020 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My LenderFi refinance is going well
Replies: 1269
Views: 112229

Re: My LenderFi refinance is going well

When people reference A+B+C+D closing costs, what are you referencing exactly? If I’m quoted a rate with a $1,000 credit, what else do I need to factor in to determine whether it will truly be “no cost” when it’s all said and done? And at what point in the application process are you able to find o...
by Gufomel
Wed Sep 30, 2020 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My LenderFi refinance is going well
Replies: 1269
Views: 112229

Re: My LenderFi refinance is going well

When people reference A+B+C+D closing costs, what are you referencing exactly? If I’m quoted a rate with a $1,000 credit, what else do I need to factor in to determine whether it will truly be “no cost” when it’s all said and done? And at what point in the application process are you able to find o...
by Gufomel
Wed Sep 30, 2020 11:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My LenderFi refinance is going well
Replies: 1269
Views: 112229

Re: My LenderFi refinance is going well

When people reference A+B+C+D closing costs, what are you referencing exactly? If I’m quoted a rate with a $1,000 credit, what else do I need to factor in to determine whether it will truly be “no cost” when it’s all said and done? And at what point in the application process are you able to find ou...
by Gufomel
Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20240
Views: 2763784

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

It looks like all those people panic selling in March called the crash after all! Psychics!

:wink: :wink: :wink:
by Gufomel
Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20240
Views: 2763784

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

The stock market is so absurdly random lol.
by Gufomel
Mon Aug 31, 2020 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9018
Views: 715230

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Every Tesla apparently comes fully stocked with tulips now. That’s the only thing that explains its price imo.

Insane.
by Gufomel
Thu Aug 27, 2020 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9018
Views: 715230

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Tesla gonna pass $1T market cap before it gets added to the S&P lol
by Gufomel
Thu Aug 27, 2020 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9018
Views: 715230

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Uh oh, is the “last of the bears“ capitulating? U.S. Short Interest Slips to 15-Year Low in August https://www.investopedia.com/u-s-short-interest-slips-to-15-year-low-in-august-5075511?utm_campaign=quote-yahoo&utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral&yptr=yahoo The contrarian in me says this is bad new...
by Gufomel
Thu Aug 20, 2020 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9018
Views: 715230

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Tesla now has a higher valuation than Walmart. Lol.
by Gufomel
Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matching Bond Duration to Retirement Timeline Question
Replies: 125
Views: 6338

Re: Matching Bond Duration to Retirement Timeline Question

If you look at the mismatch of nominal bonds with real liabilities, the deviation increases as duration increases. Any theory about matching duration of a bond portfolio to long duration real liabilities that ignores this point is suspect. Even if that’s true, wouldn’t the deviation increase even f...
by Gufomel
Mon Aug 17, 2020 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9018
Views: 715230

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

The Nasdaq top was Thursday August 6th. It will never reach this level again for years :beer Here’s a blast from the past. Posted one week ago today (8/10/20). We’ve hit a new intraday high today. Those “years” sure went by fast! :D Wait, there is more: I am calling the Nasdaq top, it won't go abov...
by Gufomel
Mon Aug 17, 2020 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9018
Views: 715230

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Wait, is it SpaceX or Tesla that’s soaring to the moon??

$330B valuation for a company that many expected to be bankrupt by this point 18 months ago.
by Gufomel
Tue Aug 11, 2020 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6437
Views: 597344

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

So this is what this strategy feels like when rates rise :shock:

** I know daily movement is practically meaningless.
by Gufomel
Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6437
Views: 597344

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I know very little about shorting (and have no practical experience), much less shorting an inverse leveraged ETF :oops: The first basic thing I think I’m lost on is how could shorting SQQQ give better return than long TQQQ? On a daily basis, if QQQ is up 1% then TQQQ would be up roughly 3%. Wouldn’...
by Gufomel
Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20240
Views: 2763784

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Yet another day with value green and the S&P-Nasdaq in the red - really sad for the under-diversified. This will likely become a positive feedback loop, the more value gains, the more that the "great rotation" into value is for real, and the more nervous that Tesla & Facebook bagholders become. Sad...
by Gufomel
Wed Jul 22, 2020 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9018
Views: 715230

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Tesla :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
by Gufomel
Wed Jul 22, 2020 5:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best option to pay for large unexpected expense
Replies: 40
Views: 2649

Re: Best option to pay for large unexpected expense

$15k? That just doesn’t sound remotely right. How large is this tree? I had a 50-60 ft spruce tree removed that was about 8 ft away from the house, and I was annoyed to pay $1400 for it. Google search indicates $2k is the high end for tree removal. If you had said $5k, I would have thought that was ...
by Gufomel
Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9018
Views: 715230

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Stef wrote: Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:57 pm Damn this market recovery must be historic?
Recovery?! We’re only back to Feb 3rd! I want moar!!
by Gufomel
Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9018
Views: 715230

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I just love it that Bogleheads, supposedly the paragons of “buy and hold”, have posted about 75 times on this thread in the last 24 hours. For a buy and hold crowd, there’s a lot of minute by minute market watching going on. :D Watch when it’s going up. Turn it off when it’s going down. And don’t t...
by Gufomel
Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6437
Views: 597344

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

On days (or longer periods) where UPRO and TMF are both up, where’s the money flowing out of? Cash I suppose? Even gold is up.
by Gufomel
Wed Jul 15, 2020 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9018
Views: 715230

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Looks like today’s S&P price chart is matching the YTD chart pretty nicely, and apparently predicting a dip around Election Day.
by Gufomel
Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6437
Views: 597344

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

How does demand impact the prices of leveraged ETFs like UPRO? If UPRO is supposed to match 3x daily S&P return, what happens if there’s suddenly high demand for UPRO? Wouldn’t its price go up more than 3x S&P? Is it assumed that arbitragers would quickly take advantage and the price would settle ba...
by Gufomel
Mon Jul 13, 2020 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9018
Views: 715230

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

See you guys over in the free fall thread I guess...
by Gufomel
Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9018
Views: 715230

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I bought Tesla a few weeks ago just for the fun of it (a fractional share equal to about 0.03% of my portfolio haha). It’s my only individual stock I’ve ever bought. It’s up 120% since I bought. It’d probably be better if Musk announces bankruptcy tomorrow so I don’t get the idea that I have any ide...
by Gufomel
Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9018
Views: 715230

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

So is Tesla going to pass up FAANG here in a couple weeks? Joking. But this is crazy. Approaching $300B valuation.
by Gufomel
Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"
Replies: 55
Views: 6131

Re: "Are You Questioning Your Foreign Stock Funds?"

It seems more reasonable to me that I should be concerned about the future returns of the outsized 70% US portion of my stock allocation that has been skyrocketing largely on the back of 5 companies, rather than the undersized 30% International portion. I have no idea what the future holds. But it’s...
by Gufomel
Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: investing for the election
Replies: 15
Views: 1142

Re: investing for the election

You mean like the expectation that a Hillary win would lead to rising stocks and a Trump win would lead to declining stocks? That common opinion persisted all the way through 2016 election night as stock futures plummeted as it became clear that Trump was about to win. Except, the market opened up t...
by Gufomel
Wed Jul 08, 2020 8:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Online Scrabble and other games
Replies: 7
Views: 659

Re: Online Scrabble and other games

https://www.pogo.com/free-online-games It’s been a long time since I played on this site, but they have Scrabble. I believe it’s owned by EA Sports, or at least used to be. Edit, well maybe never mind. I see a response on this thread says EA Sports killed their scrabble game. I see it showing on the...
by Gufomel
Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Grad's Budget
Replies: 22
Views: 1065

Re: New Grad's Budget

Thanks everyone for your comments. A couple things: I'm a little apprehensive to put more money in my retirement accounts until I have a more established emergency fund. Also a little nervous to put that money into retirement and not have access to it (although I will have to look into what Grt2bOu...
by Gufomel
Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9018
Views: 715230

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

How do companies like Amazon and Apple, valued at 1.5 trillion dollars, increase 4% in <expected> value in a day (I guess technically a few days including the long weekend)? Just incredible.

Yes that’s a rhetorical question.
by Gufomel
Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I Thought I Had a HDHP
Replies: 19
Views: 2030

Re: I Thought I Had a HDHP

I'm not sure why a company would offer a plan that met the deductible condition but was too high on the out of pocket but it happens. I had a health insurance plan once that was ineligible for an HSA because one of the limit, deductible or OOP max (I forget which) was too high by only FIFTY dollars...
by Gufomel
Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 6437
Views: 597344

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I wanted to revisit the 3X leverage calcs again to be sure I understand it correct. UPRO will basically 3X the daily returns, so by definition if the S&P 500 crashes by 33% it will go to zero (technically 1%). But because of circuit breakers, the max the index can decrease is 20%, so that's a 60% l...
by Gufomel
Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS and I Bonds
Replies: 16
Views: 1593

Re: TIPS and I Bonds

As for TIPS, 5 year treasury is at 0.31%, so if inflation is greater than 1.17% over the next 5 years the TIPS at -0.86% real will beat nominal treasury bond. For reference, the 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate is currently 1.57%. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIFR That’s quite a bi...
by Gufomel
Thu Jul 02, 2020 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS and I Bonds
Replies: 16
Views: 1593

Re: TIPS and I Bonds

As for TIPS, 5 year treasury is at 0.31%, so if inflation is greater than 1.17% over the next 5 years the TIPS at -0.86% real will beat nominal treasury bond. For reference, the 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate is currently 1.57%. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIFR That’s quite a bi...
by Gufomel
Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom
Replies: 75
Views: 4048

Re: My next move: 1 M in gold and 1 M in Zoom

steve321 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:21 pm
Steve Reading wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:33 pm Lmao at this thread. Thanks OP, I needed a pick-me-up today.
why are you laughing, if I may ask? I am the one who's laughing, since my Amazon stock in particular has done quite a lot better than the market thank you very much.
Can you expound on what paradigm shift you’re expecting?
by Gufomel
Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: YoutubeTV subscription now $64.99/month
Replies: 174
Views: 17367

Re: YoutubeTV subscription now $64.99/month

One of the main reasons people hang onto cable or get a streaming service like YouTube TV (as opposed to just Netflix, Amazon Prime, etc) is because of live sports. Now there’s limited/no live sports but they jack up the price. Doesn’t seem wise. $65 is going to be the breaking point for many. I kno...
by Gufomel
Fri Jun 26, 2020 9:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Feds promise to not raise interest rates until 2022 and emergency fund...
Replies: 7
Views: 838

Re: Feds promise to not raise interest rates until 2022 and emergency fund...

The validity of the Fed’s “promise” aside, my understanding is that doesn’t tell us much (if anything) about where rates will go from here in the bond market. Bond rates could rise based on future expectations long before any announcement from the fed. The bond market isn’t directly tied to the fed ...
by Gufomel
Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Staying the course
Replies: 10
Views: 916

Re: Staying the course

Thanks for the comments. So the equity allocation should be set at a level that no matter the worse outcome, one will never sell due to even extreme risk. So I just need to find out what the % is :) Exactly. One tool I like is this Vanguard chart, focusing specifically on the “Worst Year” number as...
by Gufomel
Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Staying the course
Replies: 10
Views: 916

Re: Staying the course

Thanks for the comments. So the equity allocation should be set at a level that no matter the worse outcome, one will never sell due to even extreme risk. So I just need to find out what the % is :) For someone who has “won the game”, yes I think that’s how it should be approached. For someone who ...
by Gufomel
Thu Jun 25, 2020 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Staying the course
Replies: 10
Views: 916

Re: Staying the course

I think in the case where you’ve “won the game” but you still have a desire to invest for growth (perhaps for legacy reasons), you should choose a $ amount that you are comfortable living off of if equities go to 0 and put that amount in low risk investments**. Everything else you put in riskier inv...
by Gufomel
Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 9018
Views: 715230

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Interesting that futures were up about 0.7% right into open, but S&P opened down about 0.3%.

International looks to be having its rare day in the sun. Or perhaps not too rare going forward.
by Gufomel
Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tipping Tree Trimming
Replies: 62
Views: 3299

Re: Tipping Tree Trimming

“Why tip someone for a job I'm capable of doing myself? I can deliver food, I can drive a taxi, I can and do cut my own hair. I did, however, tip my urologist. Because I am unable to pulverize my own kidney stones.“

- Dwight Schrute
by Gufomel
Wed Jun 17, 2020 6:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: selling ETFs, buying Mutual Funds
Replies: 27
Views: 1556

Re: selling ETFs, buying Mutual Funds

If you sell ETF and buy MF on the same day you need be aware of when the funds settle. ETF settles in 2 business days. MF settles in 1 business day. If you sell ETF and buy MF's the same day: - The funds to buy MF are required next business day - But proceeds from selling ETF aren't available for 2...
by Gufomel
Wed Jun 17, 2020 5:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: selling ETFs, buying Mutual Funds
Replies: 27
Views: 1556

Re: selling ETFs, buying Mutual Funds

If you sell ETF and buy MF on the same day you need be aware of when the funds settle. ETF settles in 2 business days. MF settles in 1 business day. If you sell ETF and buy MF's the same day: - The funds to buy MF are required next business day - But proceeds from selling ETF aren't available for 2...
by Gufomel
Tue Jun 16, 2020 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economy vs Markets
Replies: 25
Views: 1408

Re: Economy vs Markets

Real yield for a 10 year treasury is -.52%. Even a 30 year treasury has a 0% real yield right now. Shiller CAPE is at 29.30, so if I understand correctly that implies a 3.4% expected real return for the S&P (1 / 29.30). I don’t think that can be used to “time the market“, but just a point of referen...
by Gufomel
Mon Jun 15, 2020 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20240
Views: 2763784

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Any bets on when the fed money copter drops back in? I’m not sure whether to pose a bet in terms of days or hours. Looks like it only took about 2 business days from when I posted this last Thursday at noon. Right on schedule. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-june-15-2020-22214...
by Gufomel
Thu Jun 11, 2020 9:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Mega Thread
Replies: 7083
Views: 473015

Re: Refinance Mega Thread

Is a credit score in the high 700’s generally enough to get the best rates, or does it need to be 800+, 850+? I see people here talking about getting 2.75% with credits on a 30 year, but Better is showing me 3.375% with no points/credits. It’d take about $3500 points to get 2.875%. This is for a re...
by Gufomel
Thu Jun 11, 2020 9:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Mega Thread
Replies: 7083
Views: 473015

Re: Refinance Mega Thread

Is a credit score in the high 700’s generally enough to get the best rates, or does it need to be 800+, 850+? I see people here talking about getting 2.75% with credits on a 30 year, but Better is showing me 3.375% with no points/credits. It’d take about $3500 points to get 2.875%. This is for a ref...
by Gufomel
Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20240
Views: 2763784

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Any bets on when the fed money copter drops back in? I’m not sure whether to pose a bet in terms of days or hours.
by Gufomel
Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 20240
Views: 2763784

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Woah blood bath!