Search found 6113 matches

by avalpert
Tue Nov 21, 2017 10:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dave Ramsey says don't use credit cards, even if you pay them off
Replies: 221
Views: 13050

Re: Dave Ramsey says don't use credit cards, even if you pay them off

What DRIVES ME NUTs about his credit card advice is he says over and over "No one has gotten wealthy with credit card points / rewards". He misses the point when people call and ask him about this. They aren't asking if CCs will make you wealthy. They ask if it is okay to pay off the CCs monthly an...
by avalpert
Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Paying for news?
Replies: 46
Views: 2656

Re: Paying for news?

I would just enjoy the free articles. For the Washington Post there is a work around where I can click Reader view(Firefox) and I can read the article for free after I have used my monthly free limit. There is a little book right next to the refresh button that I click to enter reader view. I am no...
by avalpert
Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?
Replies: 41
Views: 4624

Re: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?

In the case of Vanguard or more particularly index funds, the common resource is the price discovery mechanism of the stock market. A few economic actors bear the cost of developing accurate fundamental prices for individual securities, and index investors benefit from this price development withou...
by avalpert
Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intrinsic Value
Replies: 6
Views: 662

Re: Intrinsic Value

In any case, the notion of intrinsic value is just a way to express the idea that somebody has a certain view about valuation. This is the key point. 'Intrinsic' is a horrible choice of words for this particular technical term - it gives the impression that it refers to something that exists within...
by avalpert
Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 186
Views: 12941

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

It's illogical because if you ran out of money, you could just end your life. If you fear living with no money more than death, then you should choose the latter. I don't say this to be morose; it's just logical. It is not illogical to recognize that most humans have difficulty taking their own lif...
by avalpert
Fri Nov 17, 2017 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 186
Views: 12941

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

Research has shown that retirees are more worried about running out of money than dying, a completely illogical concern but nonetheless a very real one. Why is it an illogical concern - running out of money is something they will have to suffer through whereas death they won't. It's illogical becau...
by avalpert
Fri Nov 17, 2017 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 186
Views: 12941

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

But many folks (most?) don't want to take that high a risk of running out of money. Research has shown that retirees are more worried about running out of money than dying, a completely illogical concern but nonetheless a very real one. Why is it an illogical concern - running out of money is somet...
by avalpert
Thu Nov 16, 2017 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Finance Simplicity
Replies: 36
Views: 1896

Re: Finance Simplicity

that's the thing; If Im making money - i'll pay taxes on it. Not an issue in a future 15% tax bracket. I'm not rich - just want to retire comfortably. I wont have to worry about hiding money from the govt. Seems to me everyone is so worried about not paying taxes and hiding money in all these diffe...
by avalpert
Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 186
Views: 12941

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

But many folks (most?) don't want to take that high a risk of running out of money. Research has shown that retirees are more worried about running out of money than dying, a completely illogical concern but nonetheless a very real one. Why is it an illogical concern - running out of money is somet...
by avalpert
Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Index Fund Arguments - Help staying the course.
Replies: 19
Views: 2492

Re: Anti-Index Fund Arguments - Help staying the course.

I have read widely and the reason I am here is that I subscribe to the theory that most (if not all), cannot consistently beat the market average by actively investing. I know that many people who spout arguments against index investing are exercising willful ignorance at their underperformance, or...
by avalpert
Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Different Approaches to Estimating World's Total Market?
Replies: 7
Views: 770

Re: Different Approaches to Estimating World's Total Market?

I'm willing entertain arguments for different weighting systems - but GDP doesn't make a lick of sense to me (I don't speak German so can't critique any reasoning in the article). Here is a hypothetical, let's say there was a big communist country that had let's say 15% of the world's GDP (that part...
by avalpert
Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: tax strategy for side income
Replies: 15
Views: 1161

Re: tax strategy for side income

But why would you elect to be taxed as an S-Corp? As an S-Corp you have to pay the employer portion of social security even if your income as an employee is above the cap between your two W2 jobs - which actually means increased tax burden relative to a sole proprietor who doesn't have to pay the a...
by avalpert
Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help with Understanding How to Handle Bonus
Replies: 51
Views: 3967

Re: Help with Understanding How to Handle Bonus

Thanks for the feedback. I guess my thought is that the bonus is so much more than I expected that I could use a part of it to help lower my tax bill while also still paying down a big chunk of the loans. You can't lower your tax bill with the bonus - at best you can limit the additional taxes you ...
by avalpert
Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: tax strategy for side income
Replies: 15
Views: 1161

Re: tax strategy for side income

In that case open a Solo-401k (do it now so you get it done before end of year) and you can put in 20% adjusted net income as an employer match. I actually registered an LLC (S-corp). Does that mean I can put aside 25% of gross income I get as 1099? With an S-Corp you can put aside 25% of the W2 in...
by avalpert
Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: tax strategy for side income
Replies: 15
Views: 1161

Re: tax strategy for side income

Hi everyone, Just wanted to update on what has happened with my side job. It actually turned out to be much more lucrative than what I thought as I obtained some unexpected contracts. My income on my personal side business will be in the mid to high 5 figures. So I'm going to ask the same questions...
by avalpert
Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: tax strategy for side income
Replies: 15
Views: 1161

Re: tax strategy for side income

Your side income will be reported on Schedule C on which you can claim expenses whether you start a company or not. A "sole proprietorship" is not a company. You should start reading the IRS publications for small businesses which you now have. See irs.gov/publications/ Since this is such a small p...
by avalpert
Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: tax strategy for side income
Replies: 15
Views: 1161

Re: tax strategy for side income

I recently started making some extra income on the side as an IC and I'm trying to figure out the best strategy going forward when it comes to taxes. My current situation is that I'm a full-time employee making most of my income, by far, as W2. I've been maximizing 401k and doing backdoor roth. I r...
by avalpert
Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does emplyer matching in an IRA count toward 5,500 cap
Replies: 4
Views: 657

Re: Does emplyer matching in an IRA count toward 5,500 cap

SIMPLE IRAs have their own limit of $12,500 for employee contribution and employers must either provide a match or non-elective contribution. They have no impact of your personal 5,500 IRA contribution limit.
by avalpert
Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Car loans vs. Home loans - Are markets efficient?
Replies: 12
Views: 1052

Re: Car loans vs. Home loans - Are markets efficient?

Am I wrong in thinking that the debt markets are not as efficient as they seem? You are confusing the efficiency of public bond markets (which are pretty efficient) with the efficiency of private loan markets that have all sorts of competing goals such as subsidizing your loan rate to get you to bu...
by avalpert
Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The passive investing trap
Replies: 23
Views: 4431

Re: The passive investing trap

He's not wrong, investors in index mutual funds and etf are not immune to chasing performance and panic selling. He's also not wrong that avoiding market downturns will improve your results. But the implicit claim that advisors and active managers are immune from performance chasing and panic sellin...
by avalpert
Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Paying for news?
Replies: 46
Views: 2656

Re: Paying for news?

I would just enjoy the free articles. For the Washington Post there is a work around where I can click Reader view(Firefox) and I can read the article for free after I have used my monthly free limit. There is a little book right next to the refresh button that I click to enter reader view. I am no...
by avalpert
Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Battle of index funds- 3 against 1
Replies: 14
Views: 1903

Re: Battle of index funds- 3 against 1

I have no problem with 100% TSM, but it is a "bet" of sorts on LCB as it will do what SP500 or DJ does. staythecourse: The investment industry would like us to believe that Total Stock Market Index Fund (TSM) is a "bet of sorts" on Large Cap Blend (LCB) stocks so they can sell us additional funds. ...
by avalpert
Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:46 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: BH recent Membership [BogleHead]
Replies: 17
Views: 1556

Re: BH recent Membership

Interesting chart. Thanks for posting it. If my math is correct, new membership has been growing at about 17% per year since 2009 and the Financial Crisis — that's even better than the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested (at 15.5% nominal per year)! ;-) That's an interesting observation. Does it sugg...
by avalpert
Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller's Concern on Passive Investing
Replies: 10
Views: 1418

Re: Shiller's Concern on Passive Investing

I am sure Mr. Shiller is a very smart man. I watched the video with the Yale School of Business Management banner prominently in the background. IMO he came off smug and condescending. A lot of other very smart people have been wrong: Alan Greenspan, the principals of Long Term Capital Management, ...
by avalpert
Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is treating all accounts as one bucket really simpler
Replies: 21
Views: 2704

Re: Is treating all accounts as one bucket really simpler

There is no need to project tax paid 30 years into the future, because the return into the future is unclear. We only need to consider our investment's current value for the purpose of rebalancing. Variations of US tax laws treat each asset class differently according to account types. There is a p...
by avalpert
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why NOT make more money?
Replies: 212
Views: 18048

Re: Why NOT make more money?

A very interesting question and discussion! It's very timely for me. Two years ago, our company offered an early retirement package. I was 50, my wife 48, and we had about 30X expenses saved. My goal for years was to retire at 62. Then I lowered it to 60. Then 55. 50 just seemed too early, so I stu...
by avalpert
Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Paying for news?
Replies: 46
Views: 2656

Re: Paying for news?

<snip> I strongly disagree. Journalism is far from its heyday right now and has plenty of problems, but professional journalism provides the resources to investigate and report in detail, grounds the rest of the news reporting, and provides some semblance of quality control. If we abandon all repor...
by avalpert
Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller's Concern on Passive Investing
Replies: 10
Views: 1418

Re: Shiller's Concern on Passive Investing

Shiller states, ". . . . All this talk of indexes, it's a little bit diluting of our intellect.. . . ' Who's intellect? Perhaps he should have a conversation with John Bogle? j I think he is right - most of the talk on pop-finance news shows about indexes does dilute our intellect. Heck, so does th...
by avalpert
Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 186
Views: 12941

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

The reason the probabilities for success change in the two scenarios is that in the first 30 year simulation, a 20% drop in year one has only a fractional probability of happening. In the second 29 year scenario, that 20% chance of a drop in year one has now gone to 100%. In fact, for the portfolio...
by avalpert
Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are actively managed funds that claim to beat the market actually "scams"?
Replies: 29
Views: 2615

Re: Are actively managed funds that claim to beat the market actually "scams"?

avalpert's exactly right. If we're just going by the subject of this thread, I think it really should be closed. I'm pretty sure it'd be some type of SEC violation for a fund to claim to be able to beat the market. I'm not aware of a single one that makes that claim, or anything close to it. I know...
by avalpert
Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Battle of index funds- 3 against 1
Replies: 14
Views: 1903

Re: Battle of index funds- 3 against 1

Wow, the trite analysis people are willing to put their name to to get exposure. The results he saw are simply the outcome of having a higher small and value tilt in the portfolio and choosing a start date at the tail end of a period where large-growth outperformed and was about to get whacked. Star...
by avalpert
Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive investing is a 'chaotic system' that could be dangerous?
Replies: 20
Views: 1777

Re: Passive investing is a 'chaotic system' that could be dangerous?

Schiller refers to economic free riding. Indexing is a form of free riding. When you buy an index you don't participate in making the market. To believe that you have to believe that any use of a market order is free riding. And even then it makes no sense - you are participating in making the mark...
by avalpert
Tue Nov 14, 2017 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 186
Views: 12941

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

So let's say you are on a game show with three doors. Behind one door is a car and behind the other two are goats. You are asked to pick the door with a car and if you are right you win it - you pick door #1. Monty, who knows what’s behind all three doors, opens door #2 showing you a goat. Before o...
by avalpert
Tue Nov 14, 2017 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 73
Views: 7340

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

Air plane engine, healthcare, power genenator. That's the backbone of US economy. We can live without facebook, amazon, apple but can't live without GE. Slim down and sell off other business. It will take time to turn the big shp around. It's a long term play. Other companies do all of those things...
by avalpert
Tue Nov 14, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!
Replies: 186
Views: 12941

Re: The 4% rule DOES fail but still makes sense!

Here is a case written by sambb in one of my other threads. Similar examples have appeared in other places. I don't know if anyone had good answers. ***************************** What about the following: Need 100k/year, so desire to have 2.5M (4%) withdrawal. Lets say right now in 2017, i hit 2.5M...
by avalpert
Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Paying for news?
Replies: 46
Views: 2656

Re: Paying for news?

I would just enjoy the free articles. For the Washington Post there is a work around where I can click Reader view(Firefox) and I can read the article for free after I have used my monthly free limit. There is a little book right next to the refresh button that I click to enter reader view. I am no...
by avalpert
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive investing is a 'chaotic system' that could be dangerous?
Replies: 20
Views: 1777

Re: Passive investing is a 'chaotic system' that could be dangerous?

It isn't immune, and it doesn't claim to be. Nobody thinks (or at least nobody with a basic understanding thinks) that a broad index strategy can consistently beat the market - or beat it at all. The strategy is explicitly not trying to. It can however, as any other strategy can, match the market b...
by avalpert
Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive investing is a 'chaotic system' that could be dangerous?
Replies: 20
Views: 1777

Re: Passive investing is a 'chaotic system' that could be dangerous?

I'm fairly new to index investing with bogleheads advice. Wondering what your thoughts on this article are... https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/14/robert-shiller-passive-investing-is-a-dangerous-chaotic-system.html Schiller is a smart guy, no doubt about it. But I don't get the issue. If too many people...
by avalpert
Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Actually might have "enough", thinking of suspending retirement savings in favor of saving for down payment
Replies: 36
Views: 3132

Re: Actually might have "enough", thinking of suspending retirement savings in favor of saving for down payment

Purchasing a home IS as form of retirment savings so substituting some 401k savings vs home equity is fine. No it most certainly is not any form of savings - it is a form of consumption. Assuming you have made the decision of how much house you want to buy - whether it makes sense to forgo the tax-...
by avalpert
Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are actively managed funds that claim to beat the market actually "scams"?
Replies: 29
Views: 2615

Re: Are actively managed funds that claim to beat the market actually "scams"?

Perhaps it's because I tend to read things that reinforce my beliefs (modern American that I am...) but it seems to me those who establish such funds know they won't succeed in the long term but hope that intelligent marketing in the media, the web and through a large network of brokerage advisors ...
by avalpert
Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Personal Black Swan
Replies: 46
Views: 5704

Re: The Personal Black Swan

Since 40% of Americans are obese, the majority have poor diet and exercise habits, and the main causes of death are cardiovascular and immune system rleated, I would venture to say the personal "Black Swan" for most people is their health. I recommend reading The Science of Fear. https://www.amazon...
by avalpert
Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Personal Black Swan
Replies: 46
Views: 5704

Re: The Personal Black Swan

Since 40% of Americans are obese, the majority have poor diet and exercise habits, and the main causes of death are cardiovascular and immune system rleated, I would venture to say the personal "Black Swan" for most people is their health. I recommend reading The Science of Fear. https://www.amazon...
by avalpert
Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump sum or DCA in a Roth?
Replies: 11
Views: 493

Re: Lump sum or DCA in a Roth?

Interesting, so it's more just personal preference you would say? No, I wouldn't say that. The better option is to lump sum, some people DCA because they feel like they would regret it too much if it dipped right after they contributed - in general i think those people underestimate their risk aver...
by avalpert
Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying off Home mortgage, partner doubts?
Replies: 40
Views: 2920

Re: Paying off Home mortgage, partner doubts?

Ask your wife the following question: Would you take out a new loan at 3-4 percent in order to invest in today's market? Because that's exactly what you're doing by not paying off your mortgage. One compromise is to pay off your mortgage now, see how it feels (with your increased monthly disposable...
by avalpert
Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 466
Views: 40985

Re: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]

Regarding the extension of the period for the previous commission-free list I received the below message from a TD Ameritrade agent: "Hello again! Your friend must have an account with our Institutional segment. Those accounts are managed by professional investment advisors, who maintain large port...
by avalpert
Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying off Home mortgage, partner doubts?
Replies: 40
Views: 2920

Re: Paying off Home mortgage, partner doubts?

Ask your wife the following question: Would you take out a new loan at 3-4 percent in order to invest in today's market? Because that's exactly what you're doing by not paying off your mortgage. One compromise is to pay off your mortgage now, see how it feels (with your increased monthly disposable...
by avalpert
Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying off Home mortgage, partner doubts?
Replies: 40
Views: 2920

Re: Paying off Home mortgage, partner doubts?

OneWorld111 wrote:
Sun Nov 12, 2017 3:41 pm
Finally, its better to ask for forgiveness then permission.
Not in this case no it isn't. You are talking about using community property assets to pay off a joint mortgage on a jointly owned property - it isn't permission you need it is agreement. If you don't have that than don't do it.
by avalpert
Sun Nov 12, 2017 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you project the amount you will have to spend annually in retirement?
Replies: 76
Views: 4168

Re: How do you project the amount of income you will have in retirement?

Fair enough, but this definition of income I use. So I look at things in terms of income and outgo. I can see some of the shades of gray people are painting but struggling to find any utility in them. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/income.asp?ad=dirN&qo=relatedSearchNarrow&qsrc=6&o=40186 The ...
by avalpert
Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you project the amount you will have to spend annually in retirement?
Replies: 76
Views: 4168

Re: How do you project the amount of income you will have in retirement?

Fair enough, but this definition of income I use. So I look at things in terms of income and outgo. I can see some of the shades of gray people are painting but struggling to find any utility in them. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/income.asp?ad=dirN&qo=relatedSearchNarrow&qsrc=6&o=40186 What...
by avalpert
Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Personal Black Swan
Replies: 46
Views: 5704

Re: The Personal Black Swan

Some thoughts and opinions: There are a lot of black swans that aren't discussed enough. -Physical theft -Uninsured disaster losses -Hacking losses -Conventional war -Identity Theft -Lawsuits -Failure of a brokerage -Failure of the SIPC -Failure of the FDIC or a government program -Global Pandemic ...