Search found 1877 matches

by dmcmahon
Thu Jun 06, 2019 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market grow faster than the economy?
Replies: 28
Views: 4158

Re: Why does the stock market grow faster than the economy?

Stock returns aren't unsustainable. Total earnings and market cap should grow with nominal GDP, in a valuation neutral world. This has not been the case because valuation (market cap relative to earnings) ncreased over the decades reflecting lower long term rates not versus say in 1980s. The for wa...
by dmcmahon
Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 785
Views: 77568

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I’ve feared a return of the 1970s bear for the past 20 years. The problem is that it hasn’t seemed actionable. Also, it hasn’t happened yet, so I’m glad I used a BH style investment strategy instead of playing that hunch. Unless you can stockpile physical commodities, you have the constant tax drag ...
by dmcmahon
Sat May 18, 2019 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market grow faster than the economy?
Replies: 28
Views: 4158

Re: Why does the stock market grow faster than the economy?

One thing always missed out of these analyses is, what fraction of overall economic activity is capitalized in the equity markets. To the extent that you transition from a largely privately held economy to a largely public ally traded one, you could see the market cap grow faster than the economy. T...
by dmcmahon
Fri May 17, 2019 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me design a 401k fund menu
Replies: 29
Views: 1494

Re: Help me design a 401k fund menu

I’m trustee of our companies retirement plan. We are discussing a change to a plan that would leave us without an investment advisor. To satisfy ERISA requirements , I need to offer a broad range of investment choices. We are thinking all vanguard index funds would work. Eliminating active managed ...
by dmcmahon
Sun Apr 07, 2019 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New York Times--A Price War Has Driven Fund Fees to Zero. They May Be Set to Drop Further.
Replies: 10
Views: 2820

Re: New York Times--A Price War Has Driven Fund Fees to Zero. They May Be Set to Drop Further.

I would be suspicious if anyone I was doing business with wasn’t charging something. Vanguard has to pay its employees and pay for offices, computers, and everything else. I sure want them to stay in business. I don’t begrudge them their fees.
by dmcmahon
Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund
Replies: 148
Views: 13375

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans to Launch Commodities Fund

Agreed, it's good to have access to this as an asset class. In a repeat of the 1970s economy this kind of uncorrelated asset might help. I feel the same way about real estate as an asset class, and it's too bad there isn't any pure play on that. REIT funds tend to blend in lenders and other financia...
by dmcmahon
Wed Apr 03, 2019 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are annuities the best way to fund one's retirement?
Replies: 190
Views: 10329

Re: Are annuities the best way to fund one's retirement?

There is no free lunch. One can not transfer risk without accepting lower returns. This is true, however there is the risk of outliving one's money, and an SPIA can pool that risk away, something you really can't do on your own. Statistically, sure, you're better off without the annuity. But then a...
by dmcmahon
Wed Apr 03, 2019 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 785
Views: 77568

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Bump just to keep it on the first page.
by dmcmahon
Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Performance Of State Pension Plans
Replies: 46
Views: 4894

Re: Larry Swedroe: Performance Of State Pension Plans

We've seen in the past that bondholders are put at the back of the line when pensions are on the line. Knowing this makes me leery of using muni bonds in my own personal asset allocation, even though from a tax perspective they make sense. Others here seem more sanguine about munis.
by dmcmahon
Sun Mar 31, 2019 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How often do you check your net worth?
Replies: 257
Views: 14666

Re: How often do you check your net worth?

Approximately twice a year. I'm almost forced to know it at tax time as I comb through all my statements. After a period when there's been a big market move up or down I will generally go through my assets to see if I ought to rebalance anything; that seems to happen at least once a year.
by dmcmahon
Sat Mar 30, 2019 2:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does a Roth IRA Solve the "Taxflation" Problem?
Replies: 18
Views: 1813

Re: Does a Roth IRA Solve the "Taxflation" Problem?

Due to what is sometimes called "taxflation" or the "inflation tax," the portion of the capital gain from stocks or the interest from bonds that is due purely to inflation is taxed as though it were a real gain. For example, if your stock or mutual fund goes from $10/share to $100/share, you recogn...
by dmcmahon
Fri Mar 29, 2019 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 785
Views: 77568

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

Yes, but with much more risk. TIPS got you 4% real with no risk. Fully taxable though, including the inflation adjustments. I backed up the truck for the 10-year, but I just didn’t have enough tax-deferred space. It was a very sad day when they matured. I still haven’t fully redeployed the proceeds...
by dmcmahon
Fri Mar 29, 2019 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 785
Views: 77568

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

No. What I regret is not putting every penny I had into 30 year TIPS paying almost 4% real. That was the buy of a lifetime. Wow, I'd love to be in something like that now, but haven't stocks significantly outperformed? Yes, but with much more risk. TIPS got you 4% real with no risk. Fully taxable t...
by dmcmahon
Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 785
Views: 77568

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

No. What I regret is not putting every penny I had into 30 year TIPS paying almost 4% real. That was the buy of a lifetime. Wow, I'd love to be in something like that now, but haven't stocks significantly outperformed? Yes, but with much more risk. TIPS got you 4% real with no risk. Fully taxable t...
by dmcmahon
Sun Mar 24, 2019 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Bond Yields?
Replies: 20
Views: 1867

Re: Negative Bond Yields?

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/is-us-dollar-nearing-peak?cmp=em-QYB Japan has slightly negative 10 year rates, the other countries you mentioned have negative rates at 2 years but not at 10 years. Large institutional and corporate investors may be stuck taking negative rates...
by dmcmahon
Sun Mar 24, 2019 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 785
Views: 77568

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

gmaynardkrebs wrote:
Sun Mar 24, 2019 12:23 am
I still don’t view 2008 as a crash, but merely a temporary respite from the absurd valuations of the immediately preceding years.
Well it sure as heck felt like a crash! And we finally got bear market P/E valuations at the bottom of it, the ones I never saw back in the 2000-2001 crash.
by dmcmahon
Sun Mar 24, 2019 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 785
Views: 77568

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

While not on the chart, this was primarily due to P/E expansion. As I recall you’re correct, but a big part of that long 1970s bear was P/E contraction that over-corrected from the nifty fifty levels to single-digit lows typical of bear market bottoms. The 1980s rebound that continued into the 1990...
by dmcmahon
Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion
Replies: 100
Views: 8416

Re: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion

And once the ball gets rolling downhill and the massive corporate debt bubble is popped, yikes. Well one action that I personally have taken is to avoid taking any credit risk in bonds. So I don't own any of those lower-quality corporates. If interest rates are headed down to zero or below, exactly...
by dmcmahon
Fri Mar 22, 2019 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion
Replies: 100
Views: 8416

Re: 10 Year/3 Month Treasuries Inversion

In general, do little with allocation. Stock prices already price recession risk better than you do. Lower rates probably justifies a lower allocation to bonds. People who are buying bonds yielding less than 0 don't agree with you. Why do you think they're buying them? Because they like losing mone...
by dmcmahon
Wed Mar 20, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 785
Views: 77568

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

The real comparison should be between stocks and bonds, i.e., will the total return on the S&P 500 over the next 30 years fall short of a 30-year Treasury held to maturity? While we can argue about what historical data would suggest, the market price of European put options on the S&P 500 total ret...
by dmcmahon
Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: retirement / taxable accounts as two separate buckets
Replies: 17
Views: 1485

Re: retirement / taxable accounts as two separate buckets

Others can speak more to it but it can often make sense to have a withdrawal strategy that uses both at the same time, and also incorporates things like Roth conversions. Man, have I got questions about Roth conversions! Best for another post though, probably. :happy Re. the Roth conversions, I've ...
by dmcmahon
Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: retirement / taxable accounts as two separate buckets
Replies: 17
Views: 1485

Re: retirement / taxable accounts as two separate buckets

I have had the same thoughts as the OP but for different reasons. It has to do with the relative sizes of the two pots. Whatever their sizes are today, if tax-deferred is all in bonds, and all equities are held in taxable, then on average the tax-deferred pot is going to shrink relative to taxable. ...
by dmcmahon
Wed Mar 20, 2019 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 785
Views: 77568

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I really like the profile of rentals in early retirement followed by annuities in late retirement, as what I'm ultimately after is an income stream. As others have pointed out, managing those rentals has a way of turning into a job. And REITs expose you to leverage you may not want. The problem wit...
by dmcmahon
Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Business Location" for a Trust?
Replies: 4
Views: 411

Re: "Business Location" for a Trust?

The trust was set up for tax purposes, at a time when the estate tax exemptions were much lower than today. It was a classic A/B trust structure, mom has a nearly-identical trust for herself. Dad's trust became irrevocable on his death. According to mom's attorney, the "situs" for the trust is likel...
by dmcmahon
Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is anything "cheap" right now?
Replies: 49
Views: 4795

Re: Is anything "cheap" right now?

fujiters wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:46 am
Total international. You can still buy at 2006 prices!
I second this. Unfortunately, I thought that in 2018. And 2017. And 2016.

OP: if you have space in a tax-deferred account, have you looked at intermediate-term TIPS bonds?
by dmcmahon
Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Business Location" for a Trust?
Replies: 4
Views: 411

Re: "Business Location" for a Trust?

Thanks for the response. Sound like I need to get an attorney to sort it out. The income is indeed required to be 100% distributed. You're right about the capital gains being a potential issue - there aren't any, though, because Mom's investment strategy is 100% fixed income. However, looking ahead,...
by dmcmahon
Sun Jan 27, 2019 6:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Business Location" for a Trust?
Replies: 4
Views: 411

"Business Location" for a Trust?

I'm trying to figure out if my late father's trust has an actual "business location" within the meaning of an IRS form, and if so, what that might be. My parents lived in state X years ago, at the time of the drafting of revocable trusts for both of them. Dad passed away in state X. At this time his...
by dmcmahon
Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 856
Views: 51499

Re: John Bogle has died at age 89

Thank you for all you've done for us small investors. You've earned your reward, rest in peace.
by dmcmahon
Fri Aug 31, 2018 9:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rolling over 401k that has after-tax contributions
Replies: 4
Views: 510

Re: Rolling over 401k that has after-tax contributions

I found at least a partial answer from the IRS: https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/rollovers-of-after-tax-contributions-in-retirement-plans This implies that when you take money from the 401k to the IRAs, you have to take a pro-rate share from pre-tax and after-tax monies, but you can route the fu...
by dmcmahon
Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rolling over 401k that has after-tax contributions
Replies: 4
Views: 510

Rolling over 401k that has after-tax contributions

I'm trying to navigate the tricky waters around 401k rollovers and I am soliciting any thoughts from this forum. I have a 401k that contains co-mingled pre-tax and after-tax contributions. I also have a Roth IRA and a Traditional IRA. The Traditional IRA is largely funded with non-deductible contrib...
by dmcmahon
Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 1098T [IRS Form 1098-T, Tuition Statement]
Replies: 10
Views: 814

Re: 1098T

Quoting directly from the instructions for filing the form (which I gather are instructions to the educational institution, not the taxpayer receiving the form): Box 1. Payments Received for Qualified Tuition and Related Expenses Enter the total amount of payments received for qualified tuition and ...
by dmcmahon
Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 1098T [IRS Form 1098-T, Tuition Statement]
Replies: 10
Views: 814

Re: 1098T

Thanks for your reply. Let me try to clarify. I will call the two educational institutions A and B. A sent a 1098T with her tuition, which was paid in 2017, clearly listed in box 2. Box 2 clearly reflects an amount paid to A by my sister. B sent a 1098T with an amount in box 1, then described it in ...
by dmcmahon
Mon Apr 23, 2018 4:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 1098T [IRS Form 1098-T, Tuition Statement]
Replies: 10
Views: 814

1098T [IRS Form 1098-T, Tuition Statement]

I do my sister's taxes and this year I had to deal with a form I'd never seen before. I'm hoping someone on this forum can help me. She's had to file for an extension while we try to sort this out. The form is a 1098T, which has something to do with educational expenditures. My sister is a retired t...
by dmcmahon
Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Impact of Tax Reform on California Tax Return
Replies: 9
Views: 1926

Re: Impact of Tax Reform on California Tax Return

If you overpay your state income tax, will you still have to pay federal income tax on the refund, even though you didn’t or couldn’t deduct it in the prior year? Asking about (hypotheticaly) overpaying in 2018 and then getting a refund and 1099 in 2019. It was already the law that only the portion...
by dmcmahon
Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Impact of Tax Reform on California Tax Return
Replies: 9
Views: 1926

Re: Impact of Tax Reform on California Tax Return

Here’s another question. If you overpay your state income tax, will you still have to pay federal income tax on the refund, even though you didn’t or couldn’t deduct it in the prior year? Asking about (hypotheticaly) overpaying in 2018 and then getting a refund and 1099 in 2019.
by dmcmahon
Sat Dec 23, 2017 5:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Donor Advised Fund (DAF) - Bunch Now - Easy (even easier than backdoor Roth)
Replies: 19
Views: 1854

Re: Donor Advised Fund (DAF) - Bunch Now - Easy (even easier than backdoor Roth)

What I read at Schwab's site said that a DAF has the 50% limit, in contrast to a private foundation or CRUT where you'd face the 30% limit. Is that wrong? Edit: I see, it's "up to 50%" for cash, but only 30% for appreciated securities. You folks seem to be saying 2017 is a better year to fund a DAF ...
by dmcmahon
Sat Dec 23, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: S-CORP: How do taxes work?
Replies: 33
Views: 3258

Re: S-CORP: How do taxes work?

What if you're just starting your business and for a few years you aren't making any money? How can you make that work vis-a-vis the requirement to pay yourself a reasonable salary? Are you allowed to work for nothing for a while? Even with C corps there are cases where for symbolic reasons the CEO ...
by dmcmahon
Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles Schwab Experiences?
Replies: 101
Views: 16970

Re: Charles Schwab Experiences?

I’m pleased with Schwab and never hesitate to give the firm a thumb’s up. Having a physical office in town is a definite plus and one that I’ve used many times. Financial soundness of the firm is important to me and Schwab passes my sniff test. Having said that, my mom does business via WF advisors ...
by dmcmahon
Thu Dec 21, 2017 11:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Christmas Bonus: Etiquette
Replies: 47
Views: 7731

Re: Christmas Bonus: Etiquette

VictoriaF wrote:
Thu Dec 21, 2017 4:52 pm
If you don't have a lot of face time with your boss and colleagues, the bonus provides you with a great reason to see them in person. Visit your company and personally thank your boss.

Victoria
This.
by dmcmahon
Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's new security key option
Replies: 120
Views: 35098

Re: Vanguard's new security key option

Thanks to the folks who posted this information about Vanguard's new security key, I went ahead and ordered the Yubico USB Security Key (FIDO U2F) and now have it working with my Vanguard accounts. Thanks again for the tip!!! Brian Update: I also bought one, and it works fine, even on Linux. It's a...
by dmcmahon
Thu Dec 21, 2017 8:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]
Replies: 886
Views: 67711

Re: Tax Bill Omnibus Thread

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/366088-white-house-trump-will-likely-sign-tax-bill-friday The reason for the President to delay signing the bill until January appears to have evaporated. Looks like they exempted the bill from PAYGO rules as part of the deal to avoid a shutdown. Therefore...
by dmcmahon
Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?
Replies: 45
Views: 6460

Re: Are stocks going up only because all the alternatives are lousy?

Standard Boglehead disclaimer, I realize I know nothing, so I keep investing according to my plan. However, if I was inclined to listen to my own suspicions, I would say we have expanded the money supply greatly, but the inflation monster is nowhere to be found. Perhaps increased wealth inequality ...
by dmcmahon
Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone hold cash?
Replies: 58
Views: 8030

Re: Does anyone hold cash?

10% cash - I'd feel naked without it.
by dmcmahon
Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax fiasco - how can we protect ourselves from potential fraudulent tax returns filed on our behalf?
Replies: 31
Views: 4536

Re: Equifax fiasco - how can we protect ourselves from potential fraudulent tax returns filed on our behalf?

Given the Equifax fiasco: 1) Am I LESS at risk if I file via snail mail than electronically? I usually file via snail mail anyway. 2) Is it risky to have refund deposited to checking account via ACH Deposit? Or should I have refund sent via snail mail? Thanks. The Equifax breach shouldn't affect th...
by dmcmahon
Sun Sep 10, 2017 3:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax customer information leak
Replies: 711
Views: 68948

Re: Equifax customer information leak

Credit freeze/unfreeze scam is the new credit monitoring scam to boost bottom line for credit reporting companies. No surprise the latest massive release of PII is from a credit reporting agency - setting off a panic that will result in perhaps millions of new paying customers for freeze/unfreeze a...
by dmcmahon
Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's new security key option
Replies: 120
Views: 35098

Re: Vanguard's new security key option

In looking at Yubico's web site, I'm a bit confused. Their sales blurbs state that "no drivers or software" are necessary to use the FIDO U2F key; however, also according to their site: You may experience a slight delay when registering a key for the first time, as your computer will need to instal...
by dmcmahon
Sat Sep 09, 2017 6:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Security
Replies: 66
Views: 10344

Re: Fidelity Security

^^ Indeed, the human element is where these security measures usually fail. That said, thanks to the OP for alerting me to this option. I will be downloading it and hope that Fidelity is one of the companies making it harder to bypass security measures by calling in. It seems to work like an RSA to...
by dmcmahon
Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax customer information leak
Replies: 711
Views: 68948

Re: Equifax customer information leak

Now let's abstract that to this breach. It includes SSNs, driver's license numbers, addresses, and so on. Now instead of a money mule with a replicated ATM card, they need money mules with fake driver's licenses (has your name, number, address, but the money mule's photo) and fake SS cards. They go...
by dmcmahon
Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax customer information leak
Replies: 711
Views: 68948

Re: Equifax customer information leak

The real social engineering problem lately is cell phone numbers. It doesn't take much to walk into a cellular store, pretend to be you, and port your number to a new, "upgraded" phone. If you're lucky, they just want the phone itself and will instead add lines on your plan. If you're unlucky, they...
by dmcmahon
Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax customer information leak
Replies: 711
Views: 68948

Re: Equifax says info stolen. What's my best course of action?

My worries go beyond credit though. Freezing credit reporting is straightforward. But if they have your name, address, data of birth, SSN, and DL#, I don't see how any of your bank and brokerage accounts are secure. This is exactly the information you have to give on the phone to transact business. ...