Search found 2305 matches

by dumbmoney
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 0 Rate + QE, free lunch?
Replies: 3
Views: 699

Re: 0 Rate + QE, free lunch?

Fed lowered rate to zero then did a few rounds of QE after 2008 crisis. The moves saved the economy, and we didn't have any inflation issues, and Dollar didn't crash. Are they essentially free lunches? Were there any negative effects that I am not aware of? It seems like there was a some kind of tr...
by dumbmoney
Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will stocks be cheap again in your lifetime?
Replies: 33
Views: 4006

Re: Will stocks be cheap again in your lifetime?

Presumably you're defining "cheap" in the way that value mavens often do, as some kind of smoothed P/E, compared to the historical average. Note that by such reasoning stocks were not cheap at the market bottom in 2009, just about average. I suggest that markets don't care about historical averages,...
by dumbmoney
Sat Jul 27, 2019 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Are Usually Wrong. A NYT Columnist (Finally) Admits He's One of Them.
Replies: 53
Views: 7451

Re: Investors Are Usually Wrong. A NYT Columnist (Finally) Admits He's One of Them.

My impression from briefly looking into things in the past is that Dalbar is, frankly, crap. Puffy reports to show that an investor really needs an RIA (and a 1% AUM fee, which is nothing compared to how much investors underperform - look at our studies!!!!) There was a specific article/blog post, ...
by dumbmoney
Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Low Cost Burner Phone?
Replies: 16
Views: 2469

Re: Low Cost Burner Phone?

T-mobile is reasonably priced, $3/month minimum (30 minutes included). Use any GSM phone.
by dumbmoney
Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Major changes in VWOB (Vanguard Emerging Markets Govt Bond ETF) portfolio (almost no China)?
Replies: 14
Views: 2905

Re: Major changes in VWOB (Vanguard Emerging Markets Govt Bond ETF) portfolio (almost no China)?

https://institutional.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/institutional/researchcommentary/article/NewsInstInfo050119 Benchmark modification announced for Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond Index Fund and ETF [...] On May 1, 2019, Bloomberg modified the methodology of the Bloomberg Barclays USD Emerg...
by dumbmoney
Sun Jul 07, 2019 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 484
Views: 28763

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

Asset owners have increasingly incorporated factor-based funds into their portfolios in an attempt to earn equity premiums at a low cost. But they are ending up bearing currency, country, sector, and other risks that are going uncompensated. ... there are decades of academic research that offers ev...
by dumbmoney
Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What caused bond prices to explode in November of 2008?
Replies: 9
Views: 1172

Re: What caused bond prices to explode in November of 2008?

I'm not clear on the exact timing, but that was in the middle of the financial crisis that started around September 2008. It wasn't bonds in general that increased, it was only the safest and most liquid bonds: nominal treasuries. 25% is an exaggeration unless you're looking only at long term treasu...
by dumbmoney
Sat Jun 15, 2019 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How have your homes as investments done?
Replies: 212
Views: 24481

Re: How have your homes as investments done?

In a stable real estate market (e.g. the Rust Belt), all the "return" comes from the rent you saved. Sure the house goes up in value, a little bit above inflation, but there's no gain after subtracting maintenance and other costs.
by dumbmoney
Sat Jun 15, 2019 5:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factors: After being spotted in the wild, where have they gone?
Replies: 22
Views: 2618

Re: Factors: After being spotted in the wild, where have they gone?

Any investment discipline that looks great in backtesting has likely been boosted by random, non-recurring factors (no pun intended). That's a very general, theory-free reason to always expect less than the historical return.
by dumbmoney
Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 11032

Re: The Case Against ETFs

At this point, you are just being obstinate. The chart below shows clearly that what I described absolutely did happen. As I explained previously, it’s well known that during this period of time that it was the published NAV - not the ETF prices - that was incorrect. That's academic. The relevant f...
by dumbmoney
Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does heavy passive investing create systemic risk for investors?
Replies: 8
Views: 832

Re: Does heavy passive investing create systemic risk for investors?

Seems to me if index funds blindly invest in certain stocks, due diligence essentially being removed from the process, this would eventually lead to heavy incentives for any company to list on a stock market if their size was large enough to also be captured by index funds. None of the big index fu...
by dumbmoney
Sun May 05, 2019 7:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Information Technology ETF ( VGT) to improve returns or not?
Replies: 15
Views: 2448

Re: Vanguard Information Technology ETF ( VGT) to improve returns or not?

These are the same stocks you already own in your S&P 500 fund. Doubling up on Apple, Microsoft, etc. would make your portfolio more concentrated, which seems to clash philosophically with your use of a small cap fund.
by dumbmoney
Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 324
Views: 42502

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Thesaints wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:36 pm
ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:25 pm
U.S. government issued IOU pieces of paper
I must object: Federal Reserve notes are not IOU's. At least they haven't been since 1964.
The question is whether Fed notes are an "inconvertible" money, or a money that is convertible if needed, but nobody expects it to be needed.
by dumbmoney
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 7 end of support - Jan 14, 2020
Replies: 107
Views: 8828

Re: Windows 7 end of support - Jan 14, 2020

Win7->Win10 upgrades are still free (unofficially - Microsoft is silent about it). If you want something more stable, there's Ubuntu LTS (5 years of support, versus 6-12 months for Windows 10 before the next mandatory upgrade).
by dumbmoney
Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to fix jerky images on streaming TV?
Replies: 29
Views: 2087

Re: How to fix jerky images on streaming TV?

YouTube apps have a diagnostic mode called "stats for nerds" or something like that. It should tell you if you're getting 60fps etc.
by dumbmoney
Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 26886

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Well if you do get in, be mindful about protecting your cryptocurrency. I know some people who have lost a lot cause they misplaced their key phrase that grants them access to their funds. It's not just "some people." It's staggering. The stated numbers vary, reliability is unclear, and some of the...
by dumbmoney
Sat Apr 13, 2019 3:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a new computer could use advice
Replies: 32
Views: 3041

Re: Buying a new computer could use advice

If your looking at a Tower only, got my Mother this: https://www.bestbuy.com/site/dell-inspiron-desktop-intel-core-i5-12gb-memory-1tb-hard-drive-black-with-silver-trim/6228201.p?skuId=6228201 i5, 12G RAM. She was completely frustrated with her 5/6 year old i3. Loves this computer. 0 issues for her....
by dumbmoney
Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recaptcha strategies and tactics
Replies: 20
Views: 1643

Re: Recaptcha strategies and tactics

I am not quite sure, but I have a theory that you are always supposed to click on exactly three pictures, can anyone confirm or deny? For the "click on the photos with cars [or whatever]" type, yes, there are always 3 to start with. Then the 3 are replaced by new images, and you have to keep clicki...
by dumbmoney
Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Laptops - swapping hard drives
Replies: 18
Views: 853

Re: Laptops - swapping hard drives

If it boots (no guarantee of that, depends whether the two systems use compatible drivers), then you could change the product key (assuming you know it) and Windows should re-activate. But swapping the product keys might not work if the versions of Windows aren't the same. Cloning will definitely wo...
by dumbmoney
Tue Feb 05, 2019 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 62
Views: 7305

Re: Insights from Norway's $1 Trillion Fund Manager

Not to get too off topic, but why do they have debt and such a big sovereign wealth fund? Are they assuming the fund will return more than the interest on the debt? I guess with them paying around 1.3% on their 5 year it is probably pretty safe bet. Yes, but it's not really a coherent policy to bor...
by dumbmoney
Sun Jan 27, 2019 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Desktop Computer (home): Do you leave it "On" or turn "off" after using?
Replies: 77
Views: 5361

Re: Desktop Computer (home): Do you leave it "On" or turn "off" after using?

I leave my Dell desktop on all day and put to sleep at night. I believe my computer has a button battery installed which maintains bios or something when the unit is turned off? I worry that the battery will die and the computer won't boot up when I turn it on. Sounds silly, but many years ago I ra...
by dumbmoney
Wed Jan 23, 2019 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Marketwatch - If everyone invested like John Bogle, markets couldn’t work right
Replies: 54
Views: 3869

Re: Marketwatch - If everyone invested like John Bogle, markets couldn’t work right

No, I don't agree with any part of that article. Passive investors don't "free ride". Amateurs shouldn't speculate. Financial innovation isn't a charity case.
by dumbmoney
Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does minimum volatility give better returns?
Replies: 31
Views: 4012

Re: Does minimum volatility give better returns?

Success for this strategy would be lower returns with disproportionately lower volatility.
by dumbmoney
Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?
Replies: 28
Views: 2332

Re: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?

ETFs don't all work the same way, but in the classic design (e.g. SPY), the ETF shares are created and destroyed by professional arbitragers with in-kind transactions, not cash transactions. This completely insulates the fund from investor trading, no less than a closed-end fund. With traditional op...
by dumbmoney
Wed Jan 09, 2019 5:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Past result is not an indicator for future performance
Replies: 29
Views: 2247

Re: Past result is not an indicator for future performance

Index funds are not immune. In fact, here's a statement from Vanguard shown on the information pages for every one of their index funds, and repeated in all of their prospectuses and annual reports: The performance data shown represent past performance, which is not a guarantee of future results. S...
by dumbmoney
Mon Jan 07, 2019 9:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How did store know what exact coupons to mail me?
Replies: 23
Views: 2473

Re: How did store know what exact coupons to mail me?

I assume the credit card people routinely transmit the name and address associated with the card for every transaction. This info is potentially useful for fraud detection.
by dumbmoney
Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: TV antennas...
Replies: 35
Views: 3085

Re: TV antennas...

Used to be twinlead because stations used to be VHF only. Almost all stations these days are UHF as a side effect of the 2009 digital cutover. You don’t want to use twinlead with UHF. After the analog shutdown, many stations moved their digital broadcasts from UHF to high-VHF (7-13). After the curr...
by dumbmoney
Thu Dec 27, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case for China A-Shares
Replies: 22
Views: 2363

Re: The case for China A-Shares

Non-Chinese investors are restricted in owning Chinese shares, and Chinese investors are restricted in owning non-Chinese shares. So this market is walled off from the global stock market. That's why the weight in benchmark indexes is, correctly, lower than market cap weight. This isn't a problem or...
by dumbmoney
Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A "super mega roll" of toilet paper = 6 "regular rolls:" is this possible?
Replies: 80
Views: 6653

Re: A "super mega roll" of toilet paper = 6 "regular rolls:" is this possible?

This so-called regular roll sounds like something that might be found in a vending machine at a seedy hotel, nothing you would find at a supermarket.

I like the suggestion to go by weight.
by dumbmoney
Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Old Windows 8 PC and Windows Defender
Replies: 16
Views: 1064

Re: Old Windows 8 PC and Windows Defender

LiterallyIronic wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 5:16 pm
rich126 wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:44 am
Windows 8 is no longer supported.
That is not correct. Even Windows 7 (which I run) is still supported.
8.1 is still supported. 8 is not. In other words, 8.1 is a mandatory upgrade for 8 users.
by dumbmoney
Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?
Replies: 100
Views: 8082

Re: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?

Remember when looking at "% of managers out/under-performed" numbers that funds as a group don't exactly match their index benchmark. The difference between the funds and the benchmark largely explains the fluctuations in the number. For this question, the best benchmark is the fund itself. In other...
by dumbmoney
Sun Dec 02, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Buybacks Don't Increase Share Prices
Replies: 33
Views: 3022

Re: Stock Buybacks Don't Increase Share Prices

Dividends decrease share prices; that's easily observed. The correct statement is that buybacks increase share prices relative to the alternative of paying a dividend.

Generally share price doesn't matter - a stock split doesn't make you poorer, and a reverse split doesn't make you richer.
by dumbmoney
Fri Nov 30, 2018 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Understanding volatility in ultrashort bond funds]
Replies: 39
Views: 6973

Re: Ultrashort bond funds in freefall

So an "ultrashort bond fund" made of floating rate bonds and one made of fixed rate bonds are completely different animals? As far as interest rate sensitivity goes, there's no difference. But a true ultra short term bond is inherently liquid, since you can just wait for it to mature. With a long t...
by dumbmoney
Tue Nov 27, 2018 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confused about the Vanguard cap gains distribution estimates
Replies: 14
Views: 1558

Re: Confused about the Vanguard cap gains distribution estimates

All three of those funds are showing a net loss in their NAV in the past 12 months. I am confused how a mutual fund can show a loss for the year and still have significant capital gains to distribute. From what I have read online, they are required to distribute the net capital gains for the year, ...
by dumbmoney
Mon Nov 26, 2018 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Liquid Alt Performance
Replies: 60
Views: 3223

Re: AQR/Liquid Alt Performance

Market neutral funds actually (net) invest in t-bills or similar, so a t-bill benchmark isn't that silly. It would be quite wrong to be happy with an 8% market neutral return if t-bills are returning 10%.
by dumbmoney
Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The size factor used to matter, but not lately -- Barron's
Replies: 10
Views: 1157

Re: The size factor used to matter, but not lately -- Barron's

Regarding the risk of small-caps, I don't see a lot of people on this forum stressing over the risk difference between an S&P 500 index fund and a total stock market fund.
by dumbmoney
Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Individual investors should have access to Private Equity"
Replies: 46
Views: 4120

Re: "Individual investors should have access to Private Equity"

Is it perhaps a variation on the gold market? If someone has gold and they want to sell it to me for USD, then they are clearly signaling they believe that said money can be turned into (via other investments) something more valuable than gold. That should - and does - signal to me to stay away fro...
by dumbmoney
Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Individual investors should have access to Private Equity"
Replies: 46
Views: 4120

Re: "Individual investors should have access to Private Equity"

Investors may think private equity is a great deal, hence the clamor for it. But the people selling private equity presumably think it's a bad deal for investors - or at least, not a great one.
by dumbmoney
Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What would you call this kind of cord?
Replies: 24
Views: 1752

Re: What would you call this kind of cord?

"standard computer power cable" works for me. I have a box of, I don't know, 20 of them. You accumulate them over time.
by dumbmoney
Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: PSA: Don't buy a big house
Replies: 248
Views: 28422

Re: PSA: Don't buy a big house

Get a couple floor lamps for your living room and avoid heavy usage of the hard to change lights.
by dumbmoney
Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50 Stocks Enough to Diversify Idiosyncratic Risk?
Replies: 26
Views: 1905

Re: 50 Stocks Enough to Diversify Idiosyncratic Risk?

The Dow does alright with 30 stocks. Of course they are not picked at random from a 3000 stock list; they are large, representative stocks.
by dumbmoney
Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Do not invest with Vanguard if you are a market-timer." - Vanguard
Replies: 12
Views: 2849

Re: "Do not invest with Vanguard if you are a market-timer." - Vanguard

I’d say Vanguard does, in fact, have a high tolerance for market timing.... Vanguard Group begins an investing experiment that pushes free ETF trading to its limit https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/08/01/vanguard-group-begins-key-experiment-in-the-new-era-of-free-investing.html Agr...
by dumbmoney
Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Lovers?
Replies: 46
Views: 7754

Re: Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Lovers?

The nice thing about this fund is that it's pretty much guaranteed to stay as-is (or very close), unlike other all-in-one funds which may be jazzed up every few years with new asset classes.
by dumbmoney
Sat Sep 29, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Exploring Buyback’s Impacts
Replies: 19
Views: 2137

Re: Larry Swedroe: Exploring Buyback’s Impacts

Buybacks are less efficient than dividends because "Wall Street" (brokers, market makers, etc) gets a cut. Dividends are direct cash payments and don't feed middlemen. Other differences are in the realm of fuzzy things like tradition and investor psychology - possibly important, but hard to get a ha...
by dumbmoney
Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P sectors are changing
Replies: 8
Views: 779

Re: S&P sectors are changing

This is good news for people who worry about sector weights. You are now more diversified, without having to do anything. :-)
by dumbmoney
Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small-Cap Value's 47.2% Turnover Rate Troubling?
Replies: 28
Views: 4895

Re: Is Small-Cap Value's 47.2% Turnover Rate Troubling?

Thanks for reply. But the link https://obliviousinvestor.com/the-cost-to-an-index-fund-of-turnover-in-an-index/ shows 'There are two types of costs imposed on an index fund when stocks move in or out of the index that the fund tracks: transaction costs and front-running costs.'". " As such, transac...
by dumbmoney
Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do-It-Yourself Wiring the Home With Ethernet: What to Buy
Replies: 54
Views: 3834

Re: Do-It-Yourself Wiring the Home With Ethernet: What to Buy

I have been thinking of doing something similar. However, my new home (built in the 90's) is fully wired with telephone cables that I believe I will never use. I thought I might just pull the ethernet cables through and replace the phone wires. That's what I did. I haven't used POTS in over 10 years.
by dumbmoney
Sun Sep 02, 2018 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small-Cap Value's 47.2% Turnover Rate Troubling?
Replies: 28
Views: 4895

Re: Is Small-Cap Value's 47.2% Turnover Rate Troubling?

Based on my understanding, all turnover cost can be reflected by the the difference the fund return and benchmark return. https://obliviousinvestor.com/the-cost-to-an-index-fund-of-turnover-in-an-index/. This said 'As such, transaction costs would show up in the form of “tracking error” (i.e., the ...
by dumbmoney
Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small-Cap Value's 47.2% Turnover Rate Troubling?
Replies: 28
Views: 4895

Re: Is Small-Cap Value's 47.2% Turnover Rate Troubling?

Based on my understanding, all turnover cost can be reflected by the the difference the fund return and benchmark return. https://obliviousinvestor.com/the-cost-to-an-index-fund-of-turnover-in-an-index/. This said 'As such, transaction costs would show up in the form of “tracking error” (i.e., the ...
by dumbmoney
Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Mutual Funds and Securities Lending"
Replies: 32
Views: 2175

Re: "Mutual Funds and Securities Lending"

And in fact, Fidelity has promised (claimed, if you believe them) that all the returns of Securities Lending go to the fund. All the returns _after_ expenses, right? So it doesn't imply that Fidelity can't profit from lending, unless all the relevant services are outsourced. If they are using one o...