Search found 2282 matches

by dumbmoney
Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?
Replies: 28
Views: 1967

Re: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?

ETFs don't all work the same way, but in the classic design (e.g. SPY), the ETF shares are created and destroyed by professional arbitragers with in-kind transactions, not cash transactions. This completely insulates the fund from investor trading, no less than a closed-end fund. With traditional op...
by dumbmoney
Wed Jan 09, 2019 5:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Past result is not an indicator for future performance
Replies: 29
Views: 2025

Re: Past result is not an indicator for future performance

Index funds are not immune. In fact, here's a statement from Vanguard shown on the information pages for every one of their index funds, and repeated in all of their prospectuses and annual reports: The performance data shown represent past performance, which is not a guarantee of future results. S...
by dumbmoney
Mon Jan 07, 2019 9:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How did store know what exact coupons to mail me?
Replies: 23
Views: 2249

Re: How did store know what exact coupons to mail me?

I assume the credit card people routinely transmit the name and address associated with the card for every transaction. This info is potentially useful for fraud detection.
by dumbmoney
Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: TV antennas...
Replies: 35
Views: 2624

Re: TV antennas...

Used to be twinlead because stations used to be VHF only. Almost all stations these days are UHF as a side effect of the 2009 digital cutover. You don’t want to use twinlead with UHF. After the analog shutdown, many stations moved their digital broadcasts from UHF to high-VHF (7-13). After the curr...
by dumbmoney
Thu Dec 27, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case for China A-Shares
Replies: 22
Views: 1486

Re: The case for China A-Shares

Non-Chinese investors are restricted in owning Chinese shares, and Chinese investors are restricted in owning non-Chinese shares. So this market is walled off from the global stock market. That's why the weight in benchmark indexes is, correctly, lower than market cap weight. This isn't a problem or...
by dumbmoney
Tue Dec 18, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A "super mega roll" of toilet paper = 6 "regular rolls:" is this possible?
Replies: 80
Views: 5400

Re: A "super mega roll" of toilet paper = 6 "regular rolls:" is this possible?

This so-called regular roll sounds like something that might be found in a vending machine at a seedy hotel, nothing you would find at a supermarket.

I like the suggestion to go by weight.
by dumbmoney
Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Old Windows 8 PC and Windows Defender
Replies: 16
Views: 905

Re: Old Windows 8 PC and Windows Defender

LiterallyIronic wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 5:16 pm
rich126 wrote:
Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:44 am
Windows 8 is no longer supported.
That is not correct. Even Windows 7 (which I run) is still supported.
8.1 is still supported. 8 is not. In other words, 8.1 is a mandatory upgrade for 8 users.
by dumbmoney
Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?
Replies: 94
Views: 6139

Re: What percent of Managers beat the market BEFORE fees?

Remember when looking at "% of managers out/under-performed" numbers that funds as a group don't exactly match their index benchmark. The difference between the funds and the benchmark largely explains the fluctuations in the number. For this question, the best benchmark is the fund itself. In other...
by dumbmoney
Sun Dec 02, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Buybacks Don't Increase Share Prices
Replies: 33
Views: 2820

Re: Stock Buybacks Don't Increase Share Prices

Dividends decrease share prices; that's easily observed. The correct statement is that buybacks increase share prices relative to the alternative of paying a dividend.

Generally share price doesn't matter - a stock split doesn't make you poorer, and a reverse split doesn't make you richer.
by dumbmoney
Fri Nov 30, 2018 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Understanding volatility in ultrashort bond funds]
Replies: 51
Views: 5677

Re: Ultrashort bond funds in freefall

So an "ultrashort bond fund" made of floating rate bonds and one made of fixed rate bonds are completely different animals? As far as interest rate sensitivity goes, there's no difference. But a true ultra short term bond is inherently liquid, since you can just wait for it to mature. With a long t...
by dumbmoney
Tue Nov 27, 2018 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confused about the Vanguard cap gains distribution estimates
Replies: 14
Views: 1408

Re: Confused about the Vanguard cap gains distribution estimates

All three of those funds are showing a net loss in their NAV in the past 12 months. I am confused how a mutual fund can show a loss for the year and still have significant capital gains to distribute. From what I have read online, they are required to distribute the net capital gains for the year, ...
by dumbmoney
Mon Nov 26, 2018 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Liquid Alt Performance
Replies: 60
Views: 2908

Re: AQR/Liquid Alt Performance

Market neutral funds actually (net) invest in t-bills or similar, so a t-bill benchmark isn't that silly. It would be quite wrong to be happy with an 8% market neutral return if t-bills are returning 10%.
by dumbmoney
Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The size factor used to matter, but not lately -- Barron's
Replies: 11
Views: 1041

Re: The size factor used to matter, but not lately -- Barron's

Regarding the risk of small-caps, I don't see a lot of people on this forum stressing over the risk difference between an S&P 500 index fund and a total stock market fund.
by dumbmoney
Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Individual investors should have access to Private Equity"
Replies: 46
Views: 3511

Re: "Individual investors should have access to Private Equity"

Is it perhaps a variation on the gold market? If someone has gold and they want to sell it to me for USD, then they are clearly signaling they believe that said money can be turned into (via other investments) something more valuable than gold. That should - and does - signal to me to stay away fro...
by dumbmoney
Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Individual investors should have access to Private Equity"
Replies: 46
Views: 3511

Re: "Individual investors should have access to Private Equity"

Investors may think private equity is a great deal, hence the clamor for it. But the people selling private equity presumably think it's a bad deal for investors - or at least, not a great one.
by dumbmoney
Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What would you call this kind of cord?
Replies: 24
Views: 1585

Re: What would you call this kind of cord?

"standard computer power cable" works for me. I have a box of, I don't know, 20 of them. You accumulate them over time.
by dumbmoney
Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: PSA: Don't buy a big house
Replies: 248
Views: 26092

Re: PSA: Don't buy a big house

Get a couple floor lamps for your living room and avoid heavy usage of the hard to change lights.
by dumbmoney
Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50 Stocks Enough to Diversify Idiosyncratic Risk?
Replies: 26
Views: 1766

Re: 50 Stocks Enough to Diversify Idiosyncratic Risk?

The Dow does alright with 30 stocks. Of course they are not picked at random from a 3000 stock list; they are large, representative stocks.
by dumbmoney
Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Do not invest with Vanguard if you are a market-timer." - Vanguard
Replies: 12
Views: 2688

Re: "Do not invest with Vanguard if you are a market-timer." - Vanguard

I’d say Vanguard does, in fact, have a high tolerance for market timing.... Vanguard Group begins an investing experiment that pushes free ETF trading to its limit https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/08/01/vanguard-group-begins-key-experiment-in-the-new-era-of-free-investing.html Agr...
by dumbmoney
Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Lovers?
Replies: 46
Views: 5809

Re: Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Lovers?

The nice thing about this fund is that it's pretty much guaranteed to stay as-is (or very close), unlike other all-in-one funds which may be jazzed up every few years with new asset classes.
by dumbmoney
Sat Sep 29, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Exploring Buyback’s Impacts
Replies: 19
Views: 2010

Re: Larry Swedroe: Exploring Buyback’s Impacts

Buybacks are less efficient than dividends because "Wall Street" (brokers, market makers, etc) gets a cut. Dividends are direct cash payments and don't feed middlemen. Other differences are in the realm of fuzzy things like tradition and investor psychology - possibly important, but hard to get a ha...
by dumbmoney
Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P sectors are changing
Replies: 8
Views: 725

Re: S&P sectors are changing

This is good news for people who worry about sector weights. You are now more diversified, without having to do anything. :-)
by dumbmoney
Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small-Cap Value's 47.2% Turnover Rate Troubling?
Replies: 28
Views: 4546

Re: Is Small-Cap Value's 47.2% Turnover Rate Troubling?

Thanks for reply. But the link https://obliviousinvestor.com/the-cost-to-an-index-fund-of-turnover-in-an-index/ shows 'There are two types of costs imposed on an index fund when stocks move in or out of the index that the fund tracks: transaction costs and front-running costs.'". " As such, transac...
by dumbmoney
Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do-It-Yourself Wiring the Home With Ethernet: What to Buy
Replies: 54
Views: 3458

Re: Do-It-Yourself Wiring the Home With Ethernet: What to Buy

I have been thinking of doing something similar. However, my new home (built in the 90's) is fully wired with telephone cables that I believe I will never use. I thought I might just pull the ethernet cables through and replace the phone wires. That's what I did. I haven't used POTS in over 10 years.
by dumbmoney
Sun Sep 02, 2018 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small-Cap Value's 47.2% Turnover Rate Troubling?
Replies: 28
Views: 4546

Re: Is Small-Cap Value's 47.2% Turnover Rate Troubling?

Based on my understanding, all turnover cost can be reflected by the the difference the fund return and benchmark return. https://obliviousinvestor.com/the-cost-to-an-index-fund-of-turnover-in-an-index/. This said 'As such, transaction costs would show up in the form of “tracking error” (i.e., the ...
by dumbmoney
Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small-Cap Value's 47.2% Turnover Rate Troubling?
Replies: 28
Views: 4546

Re: Is Small-Cap Value's 47.2% Turnover Rate Troubling?

Based on my understanding, all turnover cost can be reflected by the the difference the fund return and benchmark return. https://obliviousinvestor.com/the-cost-to-an-index-fund-of-turnover-in-an-index/. This said 'As such, transaction costs would show up in the form of “tracking error” (i.e., the ...
by dumbmoney
Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Mutual Funds and Securities Lending"
Replies: 32
Views: 1821

Re: "Mutual Funds and Securities Lending"

And in fact, Fidelity has promised (claimed, if you believe them) that all the returns of Securities Lending go to the fund. All the returns _after_ expenses, right? So it doesn't imply that Fidelity can't profit from lending, unless all the relevant services are outsourced. If they are using one o...
by dumbmoney
Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Mutual Funds and Securities Lending"
Replies: 32
Views: 1821

Re: "Mutual Funds and Securities Lending"

If a mutual fund has a 0 ER, like Fidelity's two funds now, does it really matter to the individual investor which of their revenue streams is covering those funds' costs? If you wanted to think of it as, say, their credit card business is funding the 0 ER funds operating costs, and ownership is ju...
by dumbmoney
Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Mutual Funds and Securities Lending"
Replies: 32
Views: 1821

Re: "Mutual Funds and Securities Lending"

triceratop wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 8:56 pm
And in fact, Fidelity has promised (claimed, if you believe them) that all the returns of Securities Lending go to the fund.
All the returns _after_ expenses, right? So it doesn't imply that Fidelity can't profit from lending, unless all the relevant services are outsourced.
by dumbmoney
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund
Replies: 172
Views: 12680

Re: (NEW) WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund

"100/100" funds have been around for a while. They work by investing in bonds and using S&P 500 futures to simulate a 100% stock position, with the goal of outperforming a vanilla S&P 500 fund.

Examples:
Pimco StocksPLUS (PSTKX)
DFA Enhanced US Large Co. Portfolio (DFELX)
by dumbmoney
Fri Jul 20, 2018 3:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Does Vanguard Emerging Markets not Tie to Market Caps?
Replies: 7
Views: 946

Re: Why Does Vanguard Emerging Markets not Tie to Market Caps?

Most indexes are basically trying to track the performance of active investors as a group. That's what makes them suitable as a benchmark. Float adjustment brings them closer to their objective, since only the float is held by the investors they are trying to track.
by dumbmoney
Fri Jul 13, 2018 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios
Replies: 71
Views: 6994

Re: Larry Swedroe: Look Past Expense Ratios

...The point is that market beta is just another factor, no more and no less... I think it is very different from other factors, in two aspects: ease of access, and coexistence with the efficient market hypothesis. More simply, beta is the only factor that investors as a group are exposed to. There...
by dumbmoney
Thu Jun 21, 2018 1:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effect of Index funds on Market Efficiency
Replies: 19
Views: 1529

Re: Effect of Index funds on Market Efficiency

It could go either way, it depends whether indexing is growing more at the expense of unskilled traders (who are a source of inefficiency) or more at the expense of skilled pros.
by dumbmoney
Mon Jun 11, 2018 6:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What does "tap into" the Social Security trust fund mean?
Replies: 29
Views: 2598

Re: What does "tap into" the Social Security trust fund mean?

The treasuries held by SS weren't bought on the open market and can't be sold on the open market. So it's not quite like the "real" (marketable) treasuries held by the Fed. SS doesn't have that level of independence.
by dumbmoney
Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John C. Bogle explains his interpretation of RTM (reversion to mean)
Replies: 11
Views: 2599

Re: John C. Bogle explains his interpretation of RTM (reversion to mean)

With regard to active management out- or under-performance, this is best explained by the fact that the reference index doesn't perfectly mirror active managers as a group. So when an index does particularly well, active managers underperform (since any deviation from the index is bad); when the ind...
by dumbmoney
Wed May 30, 2018 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?
Replies: 92
Views: 6306

Re: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?

A currency union is very different than a currency peg. The concept of devaluation doesn't really apply. It would take many years to leave the euro in an orderly, sane way - just as it took many years to enter it. If there is a same and orderly way to breakup the euro zone there is no need to do it...
by dumbmoney
Mon May 28, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: GFCI trips when toaster oven turned on
Replies: 33
Views: 2462

Re: GFCI trips when toast oven turned on

Another information point: When I plugged my GFCI tester into the troublesome GFCI outlet, it tripped - even before hitting the "test" button. This doesn't happen with my other GFCI outlets. I wonder if I just have a bad GFCI outlet and need to replace it? It still doesn't explain to me why turning...
by dumbmoney
Mon May 28, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: GFCI trips when toaster oven turned on
Replies: 33
Views: 2462

Re: GFCI trips when toast oven turned on

What outlets do lose power when the GFCI trips (use the test button on the GFCI)?
by dumbmoney
Mon May 28, 2018 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?
Replies: 92
Views: 6306

Re: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?

A currency union is very different than a currency peg. The concept of devaluation doesn't really apply. It would take many years to leave the euro in an orderly, sane way - just as it took many years to enter it. Entry and exit are not symmetrical problems in any way. In both cases, you're transit...
by dumbmoney
Mon May 28, 2018 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?
Replies: 92
Views: 6306

Re: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?

A currency union is very different than a currency peg. The concept of devaluation doesn't really apply. It would take many years to leave the euro in an orderly, sane way - just as it took many years to enter it. Entry and exit are not symmetrical problems in any way. In both cases, you're transit...
by dumbmoney
Sun May 27, 2018 5:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?
Replies: 92
Views: 6306

Re: German Bonds: a virtually riskless bet for an Italian investor, with no downside and a big upside possible?

A currency union is very different than a currency peg. The concept of devaluation doesn't really apply. It would take many years to leave the euro in an orderly, sane way - just as it took many years to enter it.
by dumbmoney
Thu May 24, 2018 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low
Replies: 51
Views: 5883

Re: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low

To me the ideal passive stock market fund would be one that never, ever trades. That's even better than an index fund that trades smartly. The only downside is a gradual loss of diversification, which is meaningless over a human lifetime. Why is that ideal? Lowest cost. You mean like the Voya Corpo...
by dumbmoney
Fri May 18, 2018 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low
Replies: 51
Views: 5883

Re: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low

To me the ideal passive stock market fund would be one that never, ever trades. That's even better than an index fund that trades smartly. The only downside is a gradual loss of diversification, which is meaningless over a human lifetime. Why is that ideal? Lowest cost. So it never bought Amazon or...
by dumbmoney
Fri May 18, 2018 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low
Replies: 51
Views: 5883

Re: Rob Arnott:index Investors Buy High, Sell Low

To me the ideal passive stock market fund would be one that never, ever trades. That's even better than an index fund that trades smartly. The only downside is a gradual loss of diversification, which is meaningless over a human lifetime.
by dumbmoney
Fri May 18, 2018 8:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Xfinity Mobile phone service
Replies: 11
Views: 1613

Re: Xfinity Mobile phone service

It's not actually "free" like they say, because they tack on mystery fees. Still, it's a good deal. You get 100mb of free data per month, which is good because the LG phone they sell uses data even when data is supposedly off. (Do all Android phones have such leakage or only LG, I wonder?)
by dumbmoney
Sat Apr 28, 2018 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can indexing be considered as active management ?
Replies: 21
Views: 1940

Re: Can indexing be considered as active management ?

P.S. Another way to look at this. If indexing is active management, then what, exactly , would be "passive management?" How about a stock fund that never trades? So instead of the 3-5% turnover typical of large cap index funds, it would have 0% turnover. Seems more "passive". Downside? Over time it...
by dumbmoney
Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shorting the actively managed mutual fund market
Replies: 26
Views: 2335

Re: Shorting the actively managed mutual fund market

It's not possible to short a mutual fund. You can short ETFs. But I suppose if any were really juicy short targets, they would be hard (expensive) to borrow. It's interesting that fund managers tolerate this given that short sellers are earning fees that would otherwise go to the manager (maybe the...
by dumbmoney
Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shorting the actively managed mutual fund market
Replies: 26
Views: 2335

Re: Shorting the actively managed mutual fund market

There is very good evidence, e.g. in Morningstar's "investor returns" versus "fund returns," that most actual fund investors fail to achieve the "hypothetical growth" returns they would have achieved by staying the course in the fund. It's not at all clear what is really happening, nor why it isn't...
by dumbmoney
Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shorting the actively managed mutual fund market
Replies: 26
Views: 2335

Re: Shorting the actively managed mutual fund market

The goal of most indexes is to imitate active managers (of a certain style) as a group. They do so imperfectly, but that's the general idea. So you can approximate doing the opposite of active managers by...shorting index funds.
by dumbmoney
Mon Apr 02, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Indexing Fuss Unwarranted
Replies: 16
Views: 3329

Re: Larry Swedroe: Indexing Fuss Unwarranted

Active management is profitable, just not for investors. But that's how it should be! If the world were in perfect equilibrium, active and passive funds would have the same return. The reason is simple: the risk (for a diversified investor) is the same.