Search found 2331 matches

by dumbmoney
Sun May 02, 2021 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why impossible for active to beat average?
Replies: 19
Views: 1409

Re: Why impossible for active to beat average?

The "proof" is meaningless in my opinion since it imagines an unreal world with no trading. A deeper point is even if the pros can outperform, it doesn't mean you can outperform by placing your money with a pro, since you can expect to pay a fee equal to the outperformance, leaving you no ...
by dumbmoney
Wed Feb 24, 2021 1:37 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: What is the deal with "DW"?
Replies: 104
Views: 5858

What is the deal with "DW"?

Help me scratch this itch..."DW" is used all over the forum despite (1) being very obscure - Wikipedia has never heard of it. You have to go to the Urban Dictionary to find out what it means. (2) being used nowhere else - bogleheads is the only place I've ever seen it This is not a forum w...
by dumbmoney
Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Educate me about the "naked short" issue
Replies: 44
Views: 3884

Re: Educate me about the "naked short" issue

Tangential to these questions...it's theoretically possible for a speculator to engineer a short squeeze by cornering the market for shares. And then he could basically name his price. This actually happened a few years ago, with Volkswagen. The speculator (actually Porsche, acting more like a hedge...
by dumbmoney
Fri Jan 29, 2021 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is every stock growth or value?
Replies: 15
Views: 1138

Re: Is every stock growth or value?

Growth and value are "styles", not an attempt to sort stocks into good (high return) and bad (low return). There's some statistical evidence that value stocks do outperform, but this doesn't flow from the definition of value. Stock pickers who select growth stocks often describe their pick...
by dumbmoney
Wed Jan 13, 2021 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Most Concentrated Market in 40 Years
Replies: 75
Views: 8137

Re: The Most Concentrated Market in 40 Years

A slightly odd thing I noticed is that Vanguard Total World is currently more top heavy (13.70% in top 10) than Vanguard Total International (10.30% in top 10). Normally you would expect the reverse since Total World is the more diversified fund.
by dumbmoney
Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did anybody try Mr. Bogle's "new" idea for a fund that never changes
Replies: 20
Views: 2990

Re: Did anybody try Mr. Bogle's "new" idea for a fund that never changes

Such a fund would, of course, not have included Apple Amazon Netlfix Google ... and might not have included Microsoft. In other words, companies that became the world's most valuable companies in c 25 years (Microsoft has been around longer). Meanwhile HP Cisco Alcatel AT&T Nortel Nokia etc got...
by dumbmoney
Sun Jan 10, 2021 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If we cannot predict future and if past results are not a reliable predictor of future...
Replies: 68
Views: 4725

Re: If we cannot predict future and if past results are not a reliable predictor of future...

...how are we to go about constructing our portfolio? If we cannot predict future and if past results are not a reliable predictor of future, why is any assset better than the other one? I think about this often! You have to make *some* guesses about the future, otherwise investing is madness. But ...
by dumbmoney
Fri Jan 08, 2021 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Ark founder/CEO advocating passive index investors suffer from trapped value "syndrome"?
Replies: 42
Views: 5177

Re: Is Ark founder/CEO advocating passive index investors suffer from trapped value "syndrome"?

Just another "stopped clock" fund manager who got lucky IMHO.

No different than the guy who had the good fortune to start a bearish fund at the top of the market in 2000.
by dumbmoney
Sat Dec 26, 2020 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Gut Punch (Cliff Asness of AQR on the performance of multifactor equity models)
Replies: 304
Views: 18646

Re: A Gut Punch (Cliff Asness of AQR on the performance of multifactor equity models)

There can be no doubt that a portfolio exposed to multiple independent sources of systematic risk is more diversified than a portfolio which is exposed to only one. The question is how much exposure to each factor (source of risk) is appropriate. The market / representative investor has decided on ...
by dumbmoney
Mon Dec 21, 2020 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows Defender
Replies: 38
Views: 2874

Re: Windows Defender

There's a kind of "herd immunity" effect with Windows Defender. Because so many people run it (mostly involuntarily, since they make it hard to turn off), you aren't likely to encounter malware that Defender works against.
by dumbmoney
Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ETFs would you like to see Vanguard do next?
Replies: 86
Views: 5177

Re: What ETFs would you like to see Vanguard do next?

There's a type of fund that is very much in the spirit of Mr. Bogle which nobody is currently offering: a true "buy and hold" stock fund. That is, a stock fund that never trades. Index funds as we know them are kind of a marketing gimmick. There's nothing special about the S&P 500 that...
by dumbmoney
Thu Dec 10, 2020 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mass Mutual Jumps on the Bitcoin bandwagon
Replies: 87
Views: 4962

Re: Mass Mutual Jumps on the Bitcoin bandwagon

Kind of sets them up as a target for criminals, since they now have the means to pay ransom.
by dumbmoney
Sat Dec 05, 2020 5:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Short Tesla?
Replies: 93
Views: 6679

Re: Short Tesla?

The thing that I realize now is to never short "cult" stocks, valuations, market caps don't matter Never short, period. It's seductive because it's so easy to be right, and yet so hard to make money. And losing money isn't even the worst part. It's the anxiety. Realizing a loss actually c...
by dumbmoney
Tue Dec 01, 2020 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla leaving Extended for S&P500.
Replies: 37
Views: 4151

Re: Tesla leaving Extended for S&P500.

I did read about this in the Wall Street Journal. This is resulting in additional buying as the company is added to the S&P 500 index, thus helping the increase in share price. Crazy how this company has been valued higher than GM! Tesla's market cap is more than five times the value of Ford an...
by dumbmoney
Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: PC Build Thread - 2020... and beyond!!!
Replies: 533
Views: 36253

Re: PC Build Thread 2020

I think you would do well with a 3400G on a B550 motherboard, which would leave you with plenty of room for later upgrades if you feel the need. Good idea except AMD and the motherboard makers say it's not supported. https://www.amd.com/en/chipsets/b550 *Note: AMD B550 chipset is not compatible wit...
by dumbmoney
Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has Tax Managed Small Cap fund underperformed the small cap index fund?
Replies: 19
Views: 1773

Re: Why has Tax Managed Small Cap fund underperformed the small cap index fund?

The simple answer is that they follow different indexes, so I wouldn't expect them to perform identically. The tax managed account is not an index fund. Sure is: Investment strategy The fund invests in stocks included in the Standard & Poor’s SmallCap 600 Index—an index that is made up of stock...
by dumbmoney
Fri Nov 06, 2020 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are central banks the outsourced bond portion of our portfolios?
Replies: 3
Views: 375

Re: Are central banks the outsourced bond portion of our portfolios?

I thought 2008 cured people of this idea. It's back already?

Central banks have been around a reasonably long time. They haven't abolished recessions. Sure, they try - it would be madness not to. But sooner or later, they zig when they should have zagged, etc.
by dumbmoney
Tue Nov 03, 2020 2:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a need to add emerging market to VT?
Replies: 21
Views: 2507

Re: Is there a need to add emerging market to VT?

To be picky, most indexes are "float adjusted" rather than strictly market cap weighted. For example, if Kuwait sells 10% of its national oil company, it will be weighted at 10% of its market cap. This adjustment clearly improves the index as a benchmark, because it doesn't make sense to c...
by dumbmoney
Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: examining index methods and market caps
Replies: 10
Views: 834

Re: examining index methods and market caps

On the other hand, it is important for index providers to be somewhat unpredictable as to exactly what they do when, in order to make front-running difficult. If an index fund is going to trade a lot of stock all at once (not ideal), then you want to give the market as much advance warning as possi...
by dumbmoney
Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do they still make simple washing machines without any computer chips?
Replies: 80
Views: 9958

Re: Do they still make simple washing machines without any computer chips?

Yes the "computer chips" themselves can go bad. You don't toss the entire machine. You just buy the "computer chip" replacement board. Been there, done that. The electronics on my Maytag failed just past its 1 year warrenty. The replacement part cost $200 (all manufacturers goug...
by dumbmoney
Sat Oct 03, 2020 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QE and inflation
Replies: 39
Views: 2003

Re: QE and inflation

QE -> financial assets like stocks rise in value -> the wealthy who own stocks have more wealth -> more money to be made catering the wealthy for housing -> housing values increase -> continuous wealth inequality widening QE is not the source of wealth inequality but it sure plays notable part in c...
by dumbmoney
Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More
Replies: 216
Views: 20977

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Past returns are hard facts, while the future is wild speculation. So it's natural to latch on to past returns. Fund marketing presents them as if they were vitally important. But they really are irrelevant. Bond investors are less likely to make this mistake because the return is more predictable. ...
by dumbmoney
Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Active Funds actually getting worse
Replies: 8
Views: 1268

Re: Are Active Funds actually getting worse

Active funds as a group don't exactly mirror benchmarks. When funds are doing particularly well, or particularly badly, versus a benchmark, it's safe to assume that it's mainly due to differences from the benchmark, not funds suddenly becoming value adding or value destroying.
by dumbmoney
Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter
Replies: 112
Views: 8729

Re: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter

There is a large gap between the average return of mutual funds and the average return of mutual fund investors , and the former is always greater than the latter. What may be less obvious is that there's a gap between the return of stock investors as a whole (not just fund investors) and the marke...
by dumbmoney
Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity card fraud
Replies: 36
Views: 4142

Re: Fidelity card fraud

I recently had a fraudulent charge on my Fidelity card. What blew my mind is that they called me to ask if the fraudulent charge was legit and wanted me to confirm my identity with last 4 of social and other info... I said " You called me! I'm not giving you that info". I hung up and call...
by dumbmoney
Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:05 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 80499

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

My dad had covid-19 (probably - he wasn't tested). Here's something everyone should know. The lung damage caused by covid-19 doesn't necessarily manifest as labored breathing. His breathing is totally normal, but his blood oxygen (measured by pulse oximeter) is abnormal. This is not something you ca...
by dumbmoney
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 0 Rate + QE, free lunch?
Replies: 3
Views: 742

Re: 0 Rate + QE, free lunch?

Fed lowered rate to zero then did a few rounds of QE after 2008 crisis. The moves saved the economy, and we didn't have any inflation issues, and Dollar didn't crash. Are they essentially free lunches? Were there any negative effects that I am not aware of? It seems like there was a some kind of tr...
by dumbmoney
Mon Aug 05, 2019 3:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will stocks be cheap again in your lifetime?
Replies: 33
Views: 4134

Re: Will stocks be cheap again in your lifetime?

Presumably you're defining "cheap" in the way that value mavens often do, as some kind of smoothed P/E, compared to the historical average. Note that by such reasoning stocks were not cheap at the market bottom in 2009, just about average. I suggest that markets don't care about historical...
by dumbmoney
Sat Jul 27, 2019 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Are Usually Wrong. A NYT Columnist (Finally) Admits He's One of Them.
Replies: 53
Views: 8971

Re: Investors Are Usually Wrong. A NYT Columnist (Finally) Admits He's One of Them.

My impression from briefly looking into things in the past is that Dalbar is, frankly, crap. Puffy reports to show that an investor really needs an RIA (and a 1% AUM fee, which is nothing compared to how much investors underperform - look at our studies!!!!) There was a specific article/blog post, ...
by dumbmoney
Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Low Cost Burner Phone?
Replies: 16
Views: 2635

Re: Low Cost Burner Phone?

T-mobile is reasonably priced, $3/month minimum (30 minutes included). Use any GSM phone.
by dumbmoney
Wed Jul 10, 2019 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Major changes in VWOB (Vanguard Emerging Markets Govt Bond ETF) portfolio (almost no China)?
Replies: 14
Views: 3196

Re: Major changes in VWOB (Vanguard Emerging Markets Govt Bond ETF) portfolio (almost no China)?

https://institutional.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/institutional/researchcommentary/article/NewsInstInfo050119 Benchmark modification announced for Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond Index Fund and ETF [...] On May 1, 2019, Bloomberg modified the methodology of the Bloomberg Barclays USD Emerg...
by dumbmoney
Sun Jul 07, 2019 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 484
Views: 29828

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

Asset owners have increasingly incorporated factor-based funds into their portfolios in an attempt to earn equity premiums at a low cost. But they are ending up bearing currency, country, sector, and other risks that are going uncompensated. ... there are decades of academic research that offers ev...
by dumbmoney
Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What caused bond prices to explode in November of 2008?
Replies: 9
Views: 1218

Re: What caused bond prices to explode in November of 2008?

I'm not clear on the exact timing, but that was in the middle of the financial crisis that started around September 2008. It wasn't bonds in general that increased, it was only the safest and most liquid bonds: nominal treasuries. 25% is an exaggeration unless you're looking only at long term treasu...
by dumbmoney
Sat Jun 15, 2019 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How have your homes as investments done?
Replies: 211
Views: 24774

Re: How have your homes as investments done?

In a stable real estate market (e.g. the Rust Belt), all the "return" comes from the rent you saved. Sure the house goes up in value, a little bit above inflation, but there's no gain after subtracting maintenance and other costs.
by dumbmoney
Sat Jun 15, 2019 5:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factors: After being spotted in the wild, where have they gone?
Replies: 22
Views: 2832

Re: Factors: After being spotted in the wild, where have they gone?

Any investment discipline that looks great in backtesting has likely been boosted by random, non-recurring factors (no pun intended). That's a very general, theory-free reason to always expect less than the historical return.
by dumbmoney
Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against ETFs
Replies: 193
Views: 11711

Re: The Case Against ETFs

At this point, you are just being obstinate. The chart below shows clearly that what I described absolutely did happen. As I explained previously, it’s well known that during this period of time that it was the published NAV - not the ETF prices - that was incorrect. That's academic. The relevant f...
by dumbmoney
Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does heavy passive investing create systemic risk for investors?
Replies: 8
Views: 908

Re: Does heavy passive investing create systemic risk for investors?

Seems to me if index funds blindly invest in certain stocks, due diligence essentially being removed from the process, this would eventually lead to heavy incentives for any company to list on a stock market if their size was large enough to also be captured by index funds. None of the big index fu...
by dumbmoney
Sun May 05, 2019 7:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Information Technology ETF ( VGT) to improve returns or not?
Replies: 15
Views: 3457

Re: Vanguard Information Technology ETF ( VGT) to improve returns or not?

These are the same stocks you already own in your S&P 500 fund. Doubling up on Apple, Microsoft, etc. would make your portfolio more concentrated, which seems to clash philosophically with your use of a small cap fund.
by dumbmoney
Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 324
Views: 43889

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Thesaints wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:36 pm
ruralavalon wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:25 pm U.S. government issued IOU pieces of paper
I must object: Federal Reserve notes are not IOU's. At least they haven't been since 1964.
The question is whether Fed notes are an "inconvertible" money, or a money that is convertible if needed, but nobody expects it to be needed.
by dumbmoney
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 7 end of support - Jan 14, 2020
Replies: 107
Views: 9354

Re: Windows 7 end of support - Jan 14, 2020

Win7->Win10 upgrades are still free (unofficially - Microsoft is silent about it). If you want something more stable, there's Ubuntu LTS (5 years of support, versus 6-12 months for Windows 10 before the next mandatory upgrade).
by dumbmoney
Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to fix jerky images on streaming TV?
Replies: 29
Views: 3512

Re: How to fix jerky images on streaming TV?

YouTube apps have a diagnostic mode called "stats for nerds" or something like that. It should tell you if you're getting 60fps etc.
by dumbmoney
Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 28276

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

Well if you do get in, be mindful about protecting your cryptocurrency. I know some people who have lost a lot cause they misplaced their key phrase that grants them access to their funds. It's not just "some people." It's staggering. The stated numbers vary, reliability is unclear, and s...
by dumbmoney
Sat Apr 13, 2019 3:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a new computer could use advice
Replies: 32
Views: 3190

Re: Buying a new computer could use advice

If your looking at a Tower only, got my Mother this: https://www.bestbuy.com/site/dell-inspiron-desktop-intel-core-i5-12gb-memory-1tb-hard-drive-black-with-silver-trim/6228201.p?skuId=6228201 i5, 12G RAM. She was completely frustrated with her 5/6 year old i3. Loves this computer. 0 issues for her....
by dumbmoney
Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recaptcha strategies and tactics
Replies: 20
Views: 1693

Re: Recaptcha strategies and tactics

I am not quite sure, but I have a theory that you are always supposed to click on exactly three pictures, can anyone confirm or deny? For the "click on the photos with cars [or whatever]" type, yes, there are always 3 to start with. Then the 3 are replaced by new images, and you have to k...
by dumbmoney
Thu Feb 07, 2019 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Laptops - swapping hard drives
Replies: 18
Views: 907

Re: Laptops - swapping hard drives

If it boots (no guarantee of that, depends whether the two systems use compatible drivers), then you could change the product key (assuming you know it) and Windows should re-activate. But swapping the product keys might not work if the versions of Windows aren't the same. Cloning will definitely wo...
by dumbmoney
Tue Feb 05, 2019 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 62
Views: 7432

Re: Insights from Norway's $1 Trillion Fund Manager

Not to get too off topic, but why do they have debt and such a big sovereign wealth fund? Are they assuming the fund will return more than the interest on the debt? I guess with them paying around 1.3% on their 5 year it is probably pretty safe bet. Yes, but it's not really a coherent policy to bor...
by dumbmoney
Sun Jan 27, 2019 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Desktop Computer (home): Do you leave it "On" or turn "off" after using?
Replies: 77
Views: 5473

Re: Desktop Computer (home): Do you leave it "On" or turn "off" after using?

I leave my Dell desktop on all day and put to sleep at night. I believe my computer has a button battery installed which maintains bios or something when the unit is turned off? I worry that the battery will die and the computer won't boot up when I turn it on. Sounds silly, but many years ago I ra...
by dumbmoney
Wed Jan 23, 2019 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Marketwatch - If everyone invested like John Bogle, markets couldn’t work right
Replies: 54
Views: 4235

Re: Marketwatch - If everyone invested like John Bogle, markets couldn’t work right

No, I don't agree with any part of that article. Passive investors don't "free ride". Amateurs shouldn't speculate. Financial innovation isn't a charity case.
by dumbmoney
Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does minimum volatility give better returns?
Replies: 72
Views: 8242

Re: Does minimum volatility give better returns?

Success for this strategy would be lower returns with disproportionately lower volatility.
by dumbmoney
Thu Jan 10, 2019 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?
Replies: 28
Views: 2450

Re: Are index fund managers forced to sell stocks when incurring greater trading?

ETFs don't all work the same way, but in the classic design (e.g. SPY), the ETF shares are created and destroyed by professional arbitragers with in-kind transactions, not cash transactions. This completely insulates the fund from investor trading, no less than a closed-end fund. With traditional op...