Search found 416 matches

by chicagoan23
Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Large Nest Egg...should I run a deficit to pay a larger mortgage?
Replies: 40
Views: 2917

Re: Large Nest Egg...should I run a deficit to pay a larger mortgage?

A large but unnecessary mortgage might make sense if you are anticipating high inflation over the term of the loan. I think that’s one of the best inflation hedges available. Take the money now and pay it back later with dollars that have less purchasing power. At your level of income and assets, ho...
by chicagoan23
Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Struggling Over whether to Sell my Tesla Stock
Replies: 42
Views: 2986

Re: Struggling Over whether to Sell my Tesla Stock

I thought/think it is possible that it will become extremely valuable (a future Apple, Amazon etc.) and bought it with the assumption I would hold it long-term, maybe pass it to the next generation eventually. I didn't have any special insight to back up this notion, just a gut feeling which seemed...
by chicagoan23
Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we buy a $3M+ house with parental help?
Replies: 167
Views: 11581

Re: Should we buy a $3M+ house with parental help?

We're married with no kids yet in our early 30s and pay $5000 a month to rent a $2M house in the San Francisco Bay Area (Peninsula). We're perfectly happy living where we are at least until kids have to go to school but our families continue to insist we are "throwing money away" and would like to ...
by chicagoan23
Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on investing in Pre-IPO Companies?
Replies: 21
Views: 1526

Re: Thoughts on investing in Pre-IPO Companies?

Well, well well. Looks like my investment in Palantir may just pay off. :beer https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-11/palantir-is-said-to-file-ipo-in-weeks-for-possible-fall-debut Bloomberg Palantir Technologies Inc., the secretive big-data firm, plans to file to go public in the coming ...
by chicagoan23
Tue Sep 08, 2020 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AMZN & AAPL - time to bail?
Replies: 167
Views: 14363

Re: AMZN & AAPL - time to bail?

Do you think there an upper limit to the price of these stocks? What if AMZN trades at $5,000 per share? $10,000? $50,000? I hope you don't mean the actual price of individual stocks. What matters is what those stock prices result in the market price. stock price * number of shares ~= expected mark...
by chicagoan23
Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AMZN & AAPL - time to bail?
Replies: 167
Views: 14363

Re: AMZN & AAPL - time to bail?

You won't likely lose money in AMZN or APPL in the long run (ten plus years)..... Most don't want the individual stocks risk, I get it. But with these two options consider if you think people will stop buying iPads and iPhones on Amazon in the next decade? Gosh, I even use Amazon for product resear...
by chicagoan23
Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AMZN & AAPL - time to bail?
Replies: 167
Views: 14363

Re: AMZN & AAPL - time to bail?

The most important reason to sell is portfolio diversification. If AMZN and AAPL are 100% of your portfolio, you have to sell some. That is not a reasonable portfolio by any metric unless you're Bezos or Cook. If they are 50% of your portfolio, it's hard to justify, but possible if you are extremel...
by chicagoan23
Thu Aug 13, 2020 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Assets going from 600K->15M, should I change my asset allocation?
Replies: 175
Views: 17588

Re: Assets going from 600K->15M, should I change my asset allocation?

I think my spouse will keep working regardless, and we can live off that income (130-200K depending on the year) for at least the next n years (maybe not after we have expensive kids). So I think I will just invest the 15M funds and let them grow for the next 3-10 years without planning more than 1...
by chicagoan23
Tue Aug 11, 2020 9:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Assets going from 600K->15M, should I change my asset allocation?
Replies: 175
Views: 17588

Re: Assets going from 600K->15M, should I change my asset allocation?

I am 27 years old and generally a believer of the FIRE philosophy (though my partner is not as much, and intends to keep working until a standard retirement). Otherwise, no other major life events have occurred. I do not currently have children but probably will in the future, which I imagine will ...
by chicagoan23
Mon Aug 10, 2020 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real life example of 7 digit 401k/Roth IRA portfolios
Replies: 60
Views: 6231

Re: Real life example of 7 digit 401k/Roth IRA portfolios

Current balance: $970,800. First contribution: May 2003. Maxed out annual 401(k) limit every year since then. Made traditional 401(k) deferrals only until April 2009 (no match, no employer contribution). Since April 2009, also had an "employer" contribution of between $20k and $28k per year. I am a ...
by chicagoan23
Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Helping my nephew out of his rut
Replies: 82
Views: 8904

Re: Helping my nephew out of his rut

This is a very distressing picture. Financial issues are the least of his worries. He should be getting professional counseling to make sure he doesn't become totally lost or broken. I would not try to go it alone in advising him.
by chicagoan23
Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Much Does a Car Salesperson Make on a New Car Sale?
Replies: 102
Views: 11504

Re: How Much Does a Car Salesperson Make on a New Car Sale?

I've heard that the dealers prefer that you finance, because it allows them to make more, but would this even be a factor right now with most dealers offering 0% interest on qualified financing. If someone has the cash saved for a new vehicle but is offered 0% financing is there any reason not to f...
by chicagoan23
Sun Jul 05, 2020 10:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to do with all this MONEY ?
Replies: 201
Views: 21084

Re: What to do with all this MONEY ?

3) Thanks for the posts calling me out on my unnecessary meddling in my son's affairs, DW too has long been on my back on this one, I will correct myself Respectfully, it seems like this is the time where you most want to be involved in your son’s affairs, at least financially. Think of it this way...
by chicagoan23
Sat Jul 04, 2020 7:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to do with all this MONEY ?
Replies: 201
Views: 21084

Re: What to do with all this MONEY ?

One question I would have is why does the son need to get in the habit of saving if he stands to inherit several million dollars? I think it is worthwhile to clarify expectations with children around inheritance. If they will inherit millions, as appears likely, let them plan accordingly and perhap...
by chicagoan23
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pilot, Highlander or CX-9
Replies: 64
Views: 6008

Re: Pilot, Highlander or CX-9

Good choice on the CX-9. My 2019 is performing well. Get your wife used to the adaptive cruise control....closest I’ve ever come to robot driving. I love it, especially in heavy traffic. And don’t listen to anyone who is stressed about a car payment when you have 60 months at zero percent. The car c...
by chicagoan23
Wed Jun 17, 2020 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Beach condo ownership?
Replies: 15
Views: 2350

Re: Beach condo ownership?

My wife and I are thinking about purchasing a beachfront condo at Sea Colony in Bethany Beach, Delaware. I have a couple of questions... A strong recommendation to own the condo through an LLC. There are several reasons for this, but if you are going to be running it as a trade or business and clai...
by chicagoan23
Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Have recent events affected boglehead investment philosophy?
Replies: 41
Views: 2654

Re: Have recent events affected boglehead investment philosophy?

Has covid and the recent civil unrest changed anything in terms of boglehead philosophy? I was watching the looting and thinking I should sell when I get back to where I was and move everything to what I view as more stable countries. Like Switzerland or Japan. But half their companies are multinat...
by chicagoan23
Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 206
Views: 21787

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

Just goes to show you that even when you get the core thesis right, you can still lose to people who get the core thesis wrong. I'm still on the sidelines for the most post. Obviously I wish I'd been in on the ride up to 3000, but I'm not giving up hope that what I think is the economic reality fro...
by chicagoan23
Sat Jun 06, 2020 3:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What fun car should I get in the $150k - $200k range?
Replies: 448
Views: 25872

Re: What fun car should I get in the $150k - $200k range?

I used to use Livesoft's Rule to justify my Tesla Model X. As I became more circumspect about revealing what we have in our taxable account (our fixed income tax deferred accounts are owned up to, because that's how I can discuss our quasi-LMP plan), I stopped disclosing what Livesoft's rule would ...
by chicagoan23
Tue May 26, 2020 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone screwed up timing the market?
Replies: 94
Views: 8847

Re: Anyone screwed up timing the market?

I got out in march, saw the market drop further and then rise, rise, rise and now, if the market doesn´t come down again, I have missed the boat :oops: Anyone else who learned not to time the market? Selling in March may have been a bad idea, but waiting for the market to "come down again" is proba...
by chicagoan23
Sat May 23, 2020 10:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Approaching 40, worried about financial future
Replies: 121
Views: 12779

Re: Approaching 40, worried about financial future

Thanks everyone for your responses. To clarify, we are married. 'traditional' family structure. I was not precise enough in that wording. Kids are 9, 11 and 14. Sensitive topic as to her working. The house we are selling (but still own) is valued at 400k. The house we have bought and where we now l...
by chicagoan23
Sat May 23, 2020 4:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Approaching 40, worried about financial future
Replies: 121
Views: 12779

Re: Approaching 40, worried about financial future

Need more info. How much are your house(s) worth? Do you have any debt, other than the mortgage? It sounds to me like you are doing very well for a single income with a good sized family, assuming you are not loaded with debt. Plan for your current nest egg to grow to $600k or so by the time you ret...
by chicagoan23
Thu May 07, 2020 7:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rather new to investing and have 100k to play with
Replies: 13
Views: 774

Re: Rather new to investing and have 100k to play with

As a rank beginner, HOW do you know when to buy? I know this is getting some laughs right now but seriously, what markers should I look for in a stock as it is dropping to know it's just about hit the bottom OR is about to jump. I believe the speculation does know always follow the facts of perform...
by chicagoan23
Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Keepsake items for new baby?
Replies: 25
Views: 1299

Re: Keepsake items for new baby?

+1 on the Baby's First Year photo book. We have a scrapbook for each child's entire first year. Birth pictures/announcements, newspapers from the day they were born, pictures with first visitors at the hospital and at home over the first few weeks, first holidays for every holiday, pictures with old...
by chicagoan23
Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 372
Views: 38488

Re: It's Not Different This Time

Stay the course. We don't know how deep this bear will go. We don't know when it will end. But we do know two things: # 1 It will end. # 2 Those who continue to follow their reasonable written plan will be glad they did so on the other side of it while those who panicked and sold low will regret th...
by chicagoan23
Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.
Replies: 151
Views: 15132

Re: Deflation is everywhere. Get used to it.

Two thoughts for those who think deflation is here and possibly to stay: 1. How much of it is driven by trade policy, and do you see that staying the same in light of Coronavirus concerns? If things are cheaper because the cost of making them is cheaper, will that still be the case if, as a result o...
by chicagoan23
Sat Apr 18, 2020 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munger/Buffett on riding out the storm
Replies: 76
Views: 10739

Re: Munger/Buffett on riding out the storm

The deal was March 23rd prior to FEd intervention. When you throw trillions of dollars at a problem and then say you are willing to do so again, I think that goes a long way in fixing things. The new future may be very little time window for stock market crash "deals" as the fed can act quickly and...
by chicagoan23
Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now
Replies: 128
Views: 13949

Re: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now

I have been staying away from bonds for over 10 years because it is so confusing. As I understand bond prices fall when interest rates go up as investors unload old bonds to buy newer bonds that bear higher interest rates. Interest rates have been low over the last decade, so why have people been b...
by chicagoan23
Tue Apr 14, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 1715
Views: 223396

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

Good morning Bogleheads! This morning I felt like a kid on Christmas as I waited to see our accounts update from yesterday. There it is..... our net worth is now $2,000,529.13! .... The insight and knowledge that Bogleheads provide on a daily basis is astounding. This site is responsible for my lea...
by chicagoan23
Tue Apr 14, 2020 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 206
Views: 21787

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

PLEASE NOTE: Yes, this is market timing. I'm not looking for any reproach for trying to time the market. I think it's almost always a bad idea. But this virus representing a huge threat was obvious to many in early February, when we were at ATHs and the market was pricing in literally zero risk of ...
by chicagoan23
Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 199a Pass thru deduction and Roth 401k
Replies: 5
Views: 279

Re: 199a Pass thru deduction and Roth 401k

Income below the phase out: Must do Roth up to the phase out limit, and possibly Roth conversions as well. Income above the phase out: Must get below the phase out. Traditional 401k, and then come up with something else (like a cash balance plan) until you get under the phase out level. 199A gives y...
by chicagoan23
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2020 estimated tax dates
Replies: 30
Views: 2271

Re: 2020 estimated tax dates

Illinois estimated tax payments for 1st quarter 2020 are still due on April 15. Here's the latest guidance.
by chicagoan23
Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 8936
Views: 710283

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Is it over? Maybe. But I'll truly be stunned if we are even flat from this point for the next six months or even two years. It would take an amazing ability for the markets to ignore poor corporate earnings, potential inflation, near-depression levels of unemployment, defaults in both rentals and m...
by chicagoan23
Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 206
Views: 21787

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

Everyone needs to do what is best for them, it's your money so take whatever actions you feel are right, and don't regret them. But much of the commentary here reminds me of The Princess Bride and the scene with Westley and Vizzini: The virus is much worse than the market is pricing in, so surely we...
by chicagoan23
Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bought a Put option - now what?
Replies: 77
Views: 4535

Re: I bought a Put option - now what?

Great thread, as always so much free advice on this site. Thank you to all the posters including the OP. I was always told that the only real way to make money with options was on the spreads. I’d like to hear the thoughts of some of the experienced posters as to how they think options are best used.
by chicagoan23
Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 206
Views: 21787

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

My target allocation is probably like 90:10 in a sane world, but with this virus I'm about 20:10, with the other 70 in cash. I plan to start buying equities again once I think the market is becoming rational (I'd estimate about SPX 2000), but until then, where do I park my cash? Are bonds worth the...
by chicagoan23
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?
Replies: 206
Views: 21787

Re: Sitting on a bunch of cash; what to do with it if I believe we're headed for SPX 1800 and protracted recession?

So I don't really see any hot takes here on predictions of inflation versus deflation in a scenario of protracted recession with several injections of stimulus. I guess I'll just keep the money in my settlement fund until I start redeploying into stocks in the next 2–18 months. As for people saying...
by chicagoan23
Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tide went out and I was naked
Replies: 28
Views: 5491

Re: Tide went out and I was naked

How secure are your rents? Or the lending club??

I’d make sure you have a sufficient cash position to get through a tough stretch. If that means selling some of those beaten up positions, then do that.
by chicagoan23
Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 38475

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

I see no good news coming in the next few weeks. People in my area (NYC suburb) are just now starting to believe this whole thing is real. I see actual panic coming soon when the good ol' USofA begins to buckle under the weight of this virus. Then our media pounces on the opportunity and plasters i...
by chicagoan23
Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 38475

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

The high closing value of the S&P 500 was 3,386, reached on February 19 and straight up from late October when the S&P broke out above 3,000 (it was 3,004 on October 23). That is a 12.7% increase in a little under four months (on an annual basis, a 44.1% return) with no real increase in earnings exp...
by chicagoan23
Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?
Replies: 200
Views: 15358

Re: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?

Everyone needs to keep their heads. The coronavirus is a blip on the catastrophe scale compared to war, Depression, governmental collapse, currency collapse/hyperinflation etc. 60 million people died in WWII just 75 years ago. The economy will adjust because people will continue to need goods and se...
by chicagoan23
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not even "The End of The beginning"
Replies: 37
Views: 5221

Re: It's not even "The End of The beginning"

This is a fear-based panic, and the current prices are due to a lack of buyers, not on revised numbers, which we don't even have. I refuse to believe that even this virus--while terrible--will cost $15-$20 trillion to mitigate. That is how much we are looking at in market cap and to me it does not m...
by chicagoan23
Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Vanguard mutual fund trade execution time?
Replies: 44
Views: 34512

Re: Last hour to place Mutual Fund buy order

Well I just found out there is a hard cutoff for trades after 2:30 PM eastern time imposed by Vanguard. Yep outside trades after 2:30 PM are pushed to the next day by Vanguard. So if you want to sell/buy Vanguard funds at Wells Fargo or other brokerages you need to do it early in the day. So for me...
by chicagoan23
Sun Mar 08, 2020 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 Futures halted tonight (3/8)
Replies: 233
Views: 16613

Re: S&P500 Futures halted tonight (5/8)

First, the Fed has already acted by dropping the Fed funds rate. Second, propping up stock prices is not the Fed's aim nor job. As long as the economy is in reasonably good shape, they don't need to take drastic action. It’s not about rates. I’m talking about QE4, TARP, etc.; making sure we don’t c...
by chicagoan23
Sun Mar 08, 2020 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 Futures halted tonight (3/8)
Replies: 233
Views: 16613

Re: S&P500 Futures halted tonight (5/8)

Closing low on 12/24/2018 was 2,351.10, will we retest that level? It would seem to me we could see high yield debt blow out tomorrow. That's what the technicians have been saying is very possible. At this point, I wouldn't bet against it. To be honest, I wouldn't be shocked if the market loses 10%...
by chicagoan23
Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Futures posted on marketwatch
Replies: 20
Views: 2368

Re: Futures posted on marketwatch

the futures can change drastically one way or another overnight, as I write this ( 7:45PM central time sunday) the dow is down 1000 points, it will be tomorrow morning aroung 4-6AM before we know where abouts the market will open monday.. NOTE 2: the 10 year yield is now .5% and the 30 year 1.00% f...
by chicagoan23
Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 Futures halted tonight (3/8)
Replies: 233
Views: 16613

Re: S&P500 Futures halted tonight (5/8)

Futures on the S&P 500 were halted Sunday night after they declined 5%. So-called circuit-breaker levels are the thresholds at which exchanges halt or close marketwide trading due to extreme declines. These levels are calculated daily, based on the previous day’s close in the S&P 500. https://www.m...
by chicagoan23
Fri Mar 06, 2020 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.
Replies: 129
Views: 9258

Re: Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

... so sayeth Warren Buffett. What is everybody waiting for? Could there be a better buying opportunity than right now? People are terrified! "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." ...so sayeth Mike Tyson. For two weeks stock investors have been getting punched. Hard for some to...
by chicagoan23
Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Traveling first time to Chicago - how many days
Replies: 13
Views: 706

Re: Traveling first time to Chicago - how many days

Hi, I am planning to visit Chicago for the first time with 8-10 year old kids. How many days should I stay in Chicago and what are the key places I can cover. 3-4 days are enough or any other places which are near to Chicago are worth visiting. Any suggestions would be helpful. There are a handful ...
by chicagoan23
Sat Feb 29, 2020 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why so much buying/rebalancing going on?
Replies: 100
Views: 6402

Re: Why so much buying/rebalancing going on?

How does one know when stocks will be at "all time highs". Would that have been the all time highs of January 2017? Or the last few months of 2019? Or the all time highs of January 2020? All of the above. Reduced equity exposure for all of them. In hindsight not the best choices but it was consiste...