Search found 151 matches

by ochotona
Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why buy treasuries when CD rates are so much better?
Replies: 15
Views: 1420

Re: Why buy treasuries when CD rates are so much better?

CD are a great safe option for small individual investors - and to some extent a free lunch. Institutional investors (pensions, endowments, etc.) have no choice for their risk free money other than Treasuries. Keep a little cash & Treasuries for liquidity (rebalancing), but other than that as an in...
by ochotona
Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interactive Brokers, multiple accounts and monthly fees
Replies: 10
Views: 697

Re: Interactive Brokers, multiple accounts and monthly fees

Hi, I currently have an IBKR Pro account in the US with over $100k so I don't pay the monthly fees. Occam, there has been so much controversy about brokers selling client order flow that I seriously considered using IB instead of Schwab, which sells your orders to Citadel for a commission. "At leas...
by ochotona
Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Another way Edward Jones gets you
Replies: 15
Views: 1396

Re: Another way Edward Jones gets you

I use a specialized house (GoldStar Trust Co., Canyon, TX) for a self-directed physical assets Roth, and I pay all the fees with taxable money, and they total to about 0.18%% per annum. It's nice.
by ochotona
Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 60/40 is dead?
Replies: 25
Views: 2906

Re: 60/40 is dead?

I think real assets like gold should be part of a portfolio. Stocks, bonds, gold. How much gold is up to you. 5% - 15% ? I have 15%. The clowns in DC are going to destroy the currency. If you run portfoliovsualizer.com and add a small amount of gold, you get better risk-adjusted returns than 60/40.....
by ochotona
Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: SP500 Index fund will outperform total stock market?
Replies: 35
Views: 3795

Re: SP500 Index fund will outperform total stock market?

Over the long run, equal weight S&P 500 funds like RSP (VADAX is the sympbol for the older mutual fund version) have beaten market-cap weighted like VOO / VFINX. But not since 2009. I like to focus on the long term. There's a great podcast where Rob Arnott talks about this: https://mebfaber.com/2016...
by ochotona
Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much should I pay a financial advisor?
Replies: 13
Views: 885

Re: How much should I pay a financial advisor?

I recently inherited some money and need help with some basics, e.g. asset allocation, long term plans (buying first house, etc). I ultimately want to be a DIY investor but need help with just the initial set up. What is a fair hourly rate, and how long does this sort of planning usually take? I pa...
by ochotona
Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rick Ferri says to put aside something for "Bingo Money"
Replies: 76
Views: 8825

Re: Rick Ferri says to put aside something for "Bingo Money"

I just got some XOP today, for 9.5 cents on the Dollar relative to its all time high. We shall see.
by ochotona
Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Now the time to buy Inflation Protected Bond Fund?
Replies: 30
Views: 2491

Re: Now the time to buy Inflation Protected Bond Fund?

watchnerd wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:27 am
mickroark wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:59 am
Why would you buy inflation protection when we are having deflation? :confused
Sometimes the yield is better / the insurance is cheaper when people don't think they need it.
Can't buy insurance on a burning house! Think "value investing" for bonds.
by ochotona
Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I moved to cash on March 13th and I’m regretting my decision now
Replies: 77
Views: 9089

Re: I moved to cash on March 13th and I’m regretting my decision now

Reality check time for asset allocations - Worst-case 1972-2020 length of time underwater for three different portfolios (underwater means time it took to come back to even) 100% stocks - 5 yr 8 mo 60/40 - 3 yr 5 mo 40/60 - 2 yr 9 mo from portfoliovisualizer.com Great Depression - worse than all of ...
by ochotona
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ibonds for Emergency Fund
Replies: 14
Views: 1041

Re: Ibonds for Emergency Fund

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:16 am
I have a large amount of paper savings bonds. Today's value of them all is around $376k with another $5k coming from my federal refund. With paper, I can bring them to my credit union and cash them for immediate availability. I've cashed as much as $50k in a single visit.

:sharebeer
by ochotona
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can you share your success stories?
Replies: 15
Views: 1456

Re: Can you share your success stories?

I always keep my late Mother's investment strategy in mind, 50% in equities and 50% in cash and CDs. Mom owned good companies like Walmart and had a large amount in American Funds. Always reinvested the dividends. Mom didn't sweat market downturns or try to squeeze out the last tenth of a percent. ...
by ochotona
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can you share your success stories?
Replies: 15
Views: 1456

Re: Can you share your success stories?

Current allocation - 4% equities, 2% put options on S&P 500, 13% cash, 15% gold, 66% Treasuries. I'm assuming you had different allocation during your accumulation phase, right? Also, 2% SP500 puts are for hedge for market downturn? Congrats! I think most of my 20s and 30s I was near 100% equities....
by ochotona
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can you share your success stories?
Replies: 15
Views: 1456

Re: Can you share your success stories?

I got out of stocks on 2/28/2020 using systematic trendfollowing. I also had lots of bonds, cash, and gold. I'm down a few % from my all time highs right now. I seem to make money every day recently... more when the market goes down, but also some when good news reinflates some of the bonds, though ...
by ochotona
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For those timing the market right now, what are your criteria for getting back in?
Replies: 30
Views: 2308

Re: For those timing the market right now, what are your criteria for getting back in?

7eight9 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:19 am
I know it when I see it. (Justice Potter Stewart) :happy
I think 10 month moving average would be useful. Only trade on the 1st of each month.
by ochotona
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2
Replies: 244
Views: 22230

Re: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2

Looks like stocks are set to crash this week again. My prediction of a great depression is now closer. I feel like selling all stocks on a technical bear market rebound. This might be the fastest 50% crash in history. Stocks are going to keep crashing until this infection rate flattens. There is no...
by ochotona
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to short the equity market
Replies: 135
Views: 10996

Re: Best way to short the equity market

People that are not in finance usually want the set it and forget it approach even when they get exposed to some additional risks or miss out on some of the upside. I've been doing DIY Dual Momentum trendfollowing since Q3 2015, and the SPY-COMP model for more than a year, and it does suck you into...
by ochotona
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to short the equity market
Replies: 135
Views: 10996

Re: Best way to short the equity market

Don't buy short ETFs. You could wake up and the fund could be gone. Ask the people who were in the short volatility ETF in February 2018. It went out of existence in one day. Read the Prospectus of SH or RWM or PSQ closely. It will make you see the Grim Reaper. I am using the TAIL ETF, which holds c...
by ochotona
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Now 80 years old and lost 5%
Replies: 7
Views: 1765

Re: Now 80 years old and lost 5%

You did well.
by ochotona
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
Replies: 308
Views: 23412

Re: How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?

Down 3.3%. I'm not a Boglehead. Wow~~~!!! Envious!! How did you do it? j :happy Let me guess Permanent Portfolio? :) investingforaliving.us Economic Pulse newsletter, systematic trendfollowing and some of the portfolio is similar to Permanent Portfolio I do not get compensated by Paul Novell for me...
by ochotona
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Safety of Vanguard Money Market Funds
Replies: 18
Views: 2074

Re: Safety of Vanguard Money Market Funds

Money Market Funds are not insured. They hold commercial paper. There is no guarantee they will hold the $1 per share value.
by ochotona
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people keep saying you have to be right twice?
Replies: 213
Views: 7183

Re: Why do people keep saying you have to be right twice?

I got out when the SPY went below a given long-term moving average. I exited the market 2/28/2020. I'll re-enter when the condition is reversed. I don't have to be be right once or twice. I'm just following my IPS. I made a strategic decision in 2015 to use systematic trendfollowing. I trade at the ...
by ochotona
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: F.I.R.E. is over
Replies: 14
Views: 1306

F.I.R.E. is over

I think the Millennial movement called F.I.R.E. "Financial Independence Retire Early" is finished. It was predicated on steady market returns that would allow one to retire for life at a young age. I think for more F.I.R.E. adherents, that scheme has run straight into Sequence of Returns risk.
by ochotona
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?
Replies: 308
Views: 23412

Re: How much you lost/gain since Feb 20,2020 ?

Down 3.3%. I'm not a Boglehead.
by ochotona
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dad pulling retirements out of market. Advice Please!
Replies: 58
Views: 5846

Re: Dad pulling retirements out of market. Advice Please!

MnD wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:35 pm
Panic-driven 100% to cash after a 33% equity decline is always a smart strategy.
That's why systematic trendfollowing to get you out with less loss is an important tool.
by ochotona
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax reporting for SGOL & IAU in taxable account
Replies: 9
Views: 264

Re: Tax reporting for SGOL & IAU in taxable account

Why are you even bothering reporting such tiny cap gains / cap losses amounts? You probably didn't get a 1099 form because your sales were so small that the brokerage didn't bother to generate one. There's that, too. Who's your broker? Ask them where your 1099 is. You have 90 extra days to hammer ou...
by ochotona
Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: treasuries only portfolio
Replies: 33
Views: 2004

Re: treasuries only portfolio

My Mom is 90, has 100% Treasuries! That's where we are all headed.

So, i'd put in 2.5% a month into stocks starting now for the next 10-12 months, every month. Get to 25% - 30%. You'll be fine.
by ochotona
Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax reporting for SGOL & IAU in taxable account
Replies: 9
Views: 264

Re: Tax reporting for SGOL & IAU in taxable account

Any gold ETF sales get taxed as if it were physical gold, a "collectible". It gets taxed as ordinary income, but with the rate capped at 28%. That's it in a nutshell. Don't ask us to put your data into a spreadsheet and do your work! Gold is bad to have in a traditional IRA, because you lose out on ...
by ochotona
Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: critique portfolio of 89 year old retiree
Replies: 16
Views: 1845

Re: critique portfolio of 89 year old retiree

89 year old with 85 year old wife; both in fairly good health. House, cars paid for. Live frugally on less than they earn from Social Security and Ameritrade: his: $1.24M in 3 single stocks: ED, T, GE hers: $5K in mutual funds: VEXMX; $35K in stocks: ED, T, GE I really, really, really don't like th...
by ochotona
Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Silver for apocalypse
Replies: 63
Views: 3130

Re: Buying Silver for apocalypse

Here's my credentials... I have 13% of a seven figure portfolio in gold and gold miners. 3/4 of the gold is physical, stored in professionally managed facilities not in my house. So... Gold and silver are worthless for barter. Just forget it. And it's dangerous. The first time you try to barter PMs ...
by ochotona
Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2
Replies: 244
Views: 22230

Re: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2

Then why are so many people here recommending 75/25, 80/20, 90/10, and 100% equities. Some are 20 somethings but many are not. 60/40 used to be considered "ideal" for a 40 year old around here. Now that mix seems to be dismissed as too conservative by many here, unless close to retirement. What cha...
by ochotona
Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2
Replies: 244
Views: 22230

Re: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2

Any reason why you sold 90% and not everything? And did you think about going short Going short is freaking dangerous, at least it is with short ETFs. I do have a position in Cambria's TAIL ETF, which in 90% Treasuries and 10% Put S&P 500 options, but the worst that could happen is the Puts expire ...
by ochotona
Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 401k rollover in Bear Market
Replies: 2
Views: 123

Re: 401k rollover in Bear Market

If the funds are good, and the expense ratios are low, then it's not urgent. Do you know what you're paying? If they're like rip-off levels like above 0.50% per annum, that I think it's worth moving as soon as things quiet down.
by ochotona
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should put my down payments money saved for home purchase into Stock Market now?
Replies: 17
Views: 1415

Re: Should put my down payments money saved for home purchase into Stock Market now?

In an environment like today's, all risks coincide and correlate:

- you lose your job
- the stock market tanks
- often the stress will make you sick
- or break up a marriage

don't do it. You are not in control. Be totally careful.
by ochotona
Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2
Replies: 244
Views: 22230

Re: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2

Actually I concur FULLY with "my age in bonds" for a B&H portfolio. As long as you keep the equity portion down, you don't need trendfollowing.

But I think most investors have been deluded into thinking they can bear more risk. So many retired people with equity heavy ports. Tragic
by ochotona
Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2
Replies: 244
Views: 22230

Re: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2

Not really, it just shows that any strategy can be demonstrated to have worked at some point in the past. ;) The fact that B&H beat MA for a long stretch of ochotona's sample timeframe, and then MA failed to come out very far ahead in the end (despite the extra work on the investor's part) leaves m...
by ochotona
Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2
Replies: 244
Views: 22230

Re: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2

abuss368 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:00 pm
Martlet timing simply does not work and that has been proven. An investor has to be correct twice. Once when to get out and when to get back in.
Here is the proof that it DOES work. This is a live simulator link at PortfolioVisualizer.com, which is much beloved by BogleHeads.
by ochotona
Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2
Replies: 244
Views: 22230

Re: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2

If you're not comfortable with technical analysis, just make your rebalancing bands BIG. In other words, so you don't DCA a falling knife. Suggestions to follow, I'm tied up right now at work. And all new money to CASH until you rebalance. Then off you go, like normal.
by ochotona
Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2
Replies: 244
Views: 22230

Re: Unprepared for Potential Great Depression Part 2

I was prepared for this black swan event in my investment portfolio, but underestimated the potential for a second great depression. I have been calling for low annualized returns over the next decade since mid 2019 and made a permanent change in asset allocation in mid 2019. What I did not foresee...
by ochotona
Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High level budgeting
Replies: 3
Views: 400

Re: High level budgeting

pondering wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:50 am
Have you tried Mint?
yes, but stopped due to security concerns.
by ochotona
Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying the dip: What will you (have you) pick(ed) up?
Replies: 32
Views: 2431

Re: Buying the dip: What will you (have you) pick(ed) up?

I am going to start buying when SPX is poking it's head above the 6 month moving average on an end of month closing basis. NO GUESSWORK NO HUNCHES. Rules based. What to buy? I measure 3 6 and 12 month "dual momentum" (absolute and cross-sectional) across a variety of large index ETFs... SPY, VWO, VE...
by ochotona
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High level budgeting
Replies: 3
Views: 400

High level budgeting

Does anyone have any tips, books, or online resources on how to do "high level" budgeting and tracking... not transactional, but keeping track of cash "sinks and flows". I more or less do that now, but wonder if I could get better at it or automate it. Thank you.
by ochotona
Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The mathematics of loss
Replies: 14
Views: 970

Re: The mathematics of loss

I know this much math. If I had $100 in stocks, and they dropped $30, I would only need them to gain $30 to get back to even. In the meantime I might be rebalancing and reinvesting dividends, so I would actually need less than a $30 gain to fully recover. "Only"? From a capital base of $70, earning...
by ochotona
Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The mathematics of loss
Replies: 14
Views: 970

Re: The mathematics of loss

Losses are portfolio killers. Volatility drags on performance. If two portfolios end up with same simple average return over a given time period, the one that did it with less volatility will accumulate more money. Dave Excellent point. I always look for allocations that maximize Sharpe ratio and m...
by ochotona
Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on [earnings]
Replies: 117
Views: 9372

Re: Is there a single person on here that thinks Coronavirus is going to have a material impact on

We're going to have a vaccine late 2021. So the economy will mend in 2022 2023. But remember... the economy is not the US stock market. Don't confuse them. This US market ran way ahead of the real economy and all other world markets for a decade due to buybacks and multiple expansions. That's all fi...
by ochotona
Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The mathematics of loss
Replies: 14
Views: 970

The mathematics of loss

Q - "what's the difference between someone who lost 80% and someone who lost 90%? A - They started out the same, but the person who lost 90% suffered an additional 50% loss on top of losing 80% It's not just a 10% difference. If the market goes down 30%, you have to make 42.9% to get back to even. I...
by ochotona
Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying the dip: What will you (have you) pick(ed) up?
Replies: 32
Views: 2431

Re: Buying the dip: What will you (have you) pick(ed) up?

I'm rebalancing when the S&P500 crosses over it's own 200 day moving average, when the uptrend is well established. Not before. Buying on the way down is stupid, maybe ok if your rebalancing bands are really wide. YOU CAN NEVER PICK THE BOTTOM. If you do, it's just by chance.
by ochotona
Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: SPAB issues?
Replies: 5
Views: 216

Re: SPAB issues?

It's just crazy times. Liquidity issues. Deep discounts to the underlying assets. I would hold fast if this is a strategic asset for you.
by ochotona
Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Houston Advisor suggestion
Replies: 3
Views: 241

Re: Houston Advisor suggestion

I am in Houston, I have used RIA's Richard Rosso for a second opinion, even though I am 99% self-managed. I have paid him for planning help. But it's not cheap. I paid $1200 for a financial plan. That's totally inappropriate for you. They have a great weekly free newsletter. You can pay money and ge...
by ochotona
Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 30-year TIPs at negative yields
Replies: 13
Views: 1034

Re: 30-year TIPs at negative yields

I have been buying Series I Savings Bonds for years, unfortunately, you can only buy $10,000 a year, and get $5,000 in paper bonds as your tax refund. Better than TIPS.
by ochotona
Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Would you wait?
Replies: 44
Views: 4779

Re: Would you wait?

What I did with free cash in March 2009 was to make a monthly buy over a period of ten months. I never felt stressed about any one buy, because it was only 10% of the total. It was the right thing to do behaviorally. I don't care that I didn't hit the bottom exactly.