Search found 119 matches

by bigskyguy
Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth
Replies: 107
Views: 24123

Re: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth

the article was published in january 2013. since then the compound average annual return (CAGR) of the Vanguard total stock market index has been 12.8% per year Which, of course, means that Bernstein, along with many other 'experts', was completely, totally wrong in his prediction of low returns, b...
by bigskyguy
Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”
Replies: 233
Views: 18266

Re: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”

No approach is fool proof. I think those who have won the game and have an LMP feel the assets above that are sufficient to cover future expenses that the LMP doesn't . That is the essential point of having enough. If you don't feel the assets above the LMP assets are sufficient then you don't have...
by bigskyguy
Sun May 31, 2020 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”
Replies: 233
Views: 18266

Re: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”

My approach as an age 59 recent retiree. 1) Delay SS until 70 2) TIPS ladder to age 85 3) Deferred Income Annuity starting age 85 (purchased in IRA as QLAC) 4) Small ROTH IRA with 100% stock which will not be touched until age 85 5) Anything left over can be kept in 100% stock (I use VT), because i...
by bigskyguy
Sun May 31, 2020 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”
Replies: 233
Views: 18266

Re: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”

My approach as an age 59 recent retiree. 1) Delay SS until 70 2) TIPS ladder to age 85 3) Deferred Income Annuity starting age 85 (purchased in IRA as QLAC) 4) Small ROTH IRA with 100% stock which will not be touched until age 85 5) Anything left over can be kept in 100% stock (I use VT), because i...
by bigskyguy
Sat May 30, 2020 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”
Replies: 233
Views: 18266

Re: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”

A lot of great comments and insights on this post. As one who has committed to LMP, let me add a few points that might not have been made and might not be intuitively evident. The concept of LMP is that day to day living expenses are essentially covered by reliable (guaranteed seems a bit to absolut...
by bigskyguy
Fri May 29, 2020 3:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I panicking or being prudent?
Replies: 57
Views: 4972

Re: Am I panicking or being prudent?

https://imgur.com/1JOJp6B.png Take these curves for what they're worth. Morningstar uses them as benchmarks for target-date funds, they use a similar methodology to target-date funds, and most actual target-date funds fall somewhere in between their "conservative" and "aggressive" curves. I persona...
by bigskyguy
Wed May 27, 2020 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]
Replies: 109
Views: 11640

Re: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]

The Fed’s job is to maintain stable employment and price levels. It’s purpose is exactly to intervene at times like this. Complaining about the Fed intervening during a time of crisis is like complaining about firefighters arriving to put a fire out. And it’s not like the Fed hasn’t done this befor...
by bigskyguy
Wed May 27, 2020 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]
Replies: 109
Views: 11640

Re: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]

If you don’t trust the Federal Reserve which has printed our money for over 100 years I’m not sure why you would trust anything else like bonds or stocks. My apologies, but I fear we are talking past one another. My point is simply that absent the remarkable intervention by the Fed, we’d be having ...
by bigskyguy
Wed May 27, 2020 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]
Replies: 109
Views: 11640

Re: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]

Never say never. This time may be different. I'm 71, and in those years, unemployment has never reached 20%, the federal deficit has never exceeded 3 trillion dollars (and counting), the Fed has never rescued investors in ETFs, MBSs, and corporate bonds, the national economy and the stock market ha...
by bigskyguy
Wed May 27, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]
Replies: 109
Views: 11640

Re: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]

Never say never. This time may be different. I'm 71, and in those years, unemployment has never reached 20%, the federal deficit has never exceeded 3 trillion dollars (and counting), the Fed has never rescued investors in ETFs, MBSs, and corporate bonds, the national economy and the stock market ha...
by bigskyguy
Wed May 27, 2020 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”
Replies: 233
Views: 18266

Re: “WHEN YOU'VE WON the game, stop playing with the money you really need.”

A TIPS ladder will be the safest investment. Pretty much no default risk or inflation risk. The inflation protection in TIPS is free or close to free, so it should be more widely used than it is. Owning your home is another source of safety--it's protection against rent increases. It’s worth noting...
by bigskyguy
Wed May 27, 2020 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]
Replies: 109
Views: 11640

Re: This article is scaring me. [Roubini predicting depression]

Never say never. This time may be different. I'm 71, and in those years, unemployment has never reached 20%, the federal deficit has never exceeded 3 trillion dollars (and counting), the Fed has never rescued investors in ETFs, MBSs, and corporate bonds, the national economy and the stock market has...
by bigskyguy
Mon May 25, 2020 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the US become like Japan?
Replies: 68
Views: 5108

Re: Will the US become like Japan?

Regarding the higher than average CAPE in the US, I think we can infer that the CAPE is high because investors feel that it is safe to invest in the US, so more people (and more dollars) are doing it, and the prices are therefore higher. I think it is reasonable to assume that the CAPE will remain ...
by bigskyguy
Mon May 25, 2020 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the US become like Japan?
Replies: 68
Views: 5108

Re: Will the US become like Japan?

As I look at the graphs, they are somewhat misleading, in that the y-axes are different. US real GDP growth rates over 60 years has dropped by 50% (4% to 2%), for Europe they have dropped by 80% (5% to 1%), and for Japan from 8% to negative. Clearly the US has a longer way to go to see the extent of...
by bigskyguy
Mon May 25, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the US become like Japan?
Replies: 68
Views: 5108

Re: Will the US become like Japan?

The relative success of the U.S. stock market should not lead folks to believe that the U.S. economy is somehow exceptional or immune from the global demographic and secular forces impacting the rest of the world. In fact, U.S. economic growth has been decelerating for six decades, right along with...
by bigskyguy
Fri May 22, 2020 6:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?
Replies: 367
Views: 28791

Re: The axe falls and I am prepared. What's next?

First and foremost, my sincere condolences. I am a very infrequent poster, but a persistent and consistent listener/observer. I very much appreciate your understandable and reasoned postings, and for my sake hope that they continue. I suspect you have a solid handle on your finances, and as to wheth...
by bigskyguy
Thu May 21, 2020 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?
Replies: 50
Views: 4474

Re: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?

The only reasonable or logical conclusion that makes any sense to me is that both the stock and the bond markets are preparing for low single digit to zero nominal and negative real returns over decades. I have tended to focus upon bond yields and stock prices when investing. However, if one focuses...
by bigskyguy
Mon May 18, 2020 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYTs article:— New York Times article May 17, Dealing With the Dark Side of Low Interest Rates
Replies: 79
Views: 7715

Re: NYTs article:— New York Times article May 17, Dealing With the Dark Side of Low Interest Rates

Some posters are writing that rates are low because there is a huge demand for the product ..... Well not exactly --- the big customer has been the fed to the point of their purchasing of debt is called "financial repression" https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/04/13/donald-trump-and-t...
by bigskyguy
Mon May 18, 2020 11:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will cash be obsolete in a new digital world?
Replies: 20
Views: 1045

Re: Will cash be obsolete in a new digital world?

Ken Rogoff has written a really interesting book, "The Curse of Cash," which might be of interest to you. It is not a far fetched idea.
by bigskyguy
Mon May 18, 2020 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYTs article:— New York Times article May 17, Dealing With the Dark Side of Low Interest Rates
Replies: 79
Views: 7715

Re: NYTs article:— New York Times article May 17, Dealing With the Dark Side of Low Interest Rates

@bigskyguy, I think debt is always at an all-time time. I remember folks worried about it enough to talk constantly about it back in the mid-1980s. Sure, some interesting things happened such as the Savings & Loan Crisis and those crazy high interest rates, but folks survived anyways. We will indee...
by bigskyguy
Mon May 18, 2020 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYTs article:— New York Times article May 17, Dealing With the Dark Side of Low Interest Rates
Replies: 79
Views: 7715

Re: NYTs article:— New York Times article May 17, Dealing With the Dark Side of Low Interest Rates

This article actually did not propose any solutions, so it did not even try to address "Dealing ...." It merely stated the problem and walked away. I guess if one forced me to propose a solution, then it would be: Prepare well ahead of time by living well below your means. If you are too young that...
by bigskyguy
Thu May 14, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 315
Views: 16309

Re: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"

What's different is that we've been experiencing an "event driven" bear market (caused by a pandemic), as opposed to a hugely overvalued stock market in the 2001 tech crash, and a "structural" bear market in 2008-09 in which the world's financial system was on the brink of collapse. Before the outb...
by bigskyguy
Thu May 14, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 315
Views: 16309

Re: "The economy is in free fall. So why isn't the stock market?"

What's different is that we've been experiencing an "event driven" bear market (caused by a pandemic), as opposed to a hugely overvalued stock market in the 2001 tech crash, and a "structural" bear market in 2008-09 in which the world's financial system was on the brink of collapse. Before the outb...
by bigskyguy
Sat May 09, 2020 7:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recession coming (?) any change in investments?
Replies: 82
Views: 7164

Re: Recession coming (?) any change in investments?

With a best guess estimate of a 1% mortality Not the best guess. Just a guess. According to this site, the mortality rate is close to 7%: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Approximately 4 million infected worldwide, approximately 280k died. Reported mortality statistics are practically bas...
by bigskyguy
Sat May 09, 2020 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recession coming (?) any change in investments?
Replies: 82
Views: 7164

Re: Recession coming (?) any change in investments?

Hi all, So based on many indicators (e.g. unemployment rate), a recession is coming. If they announce a cure for the virus today or next week, will that change anything? It's difficult, but best to ignore these indicators and keep investing for future generations to come. :moneybag Cure will not be...
by bigskyguy
Sat May 09, 2020 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 315
Views: 16309

Re: WSJ - Why is the Stock Market Rallying When the Economy is So Bad?

An article from today's WSJ. Link below. The five primary reasons cited by the article: 1. Bets on a "V-Shaped" Recovery 2. Market Leaders Keep Rising 3. Corporate Earnings Expectations Remain High 4. Old Habits Die Hard (FOMO, returns on alternative asset classes are low) 5. The Fed's Backing A lo...
by bigskyguy
Sat May 09, 2020 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recession coming (?) any change in investments?
Replies: 82
Views: 7164

Re: Recession coming (?) any change in investments?

Bear in mind that the present economic scenario has NO parallel in our my (I’m soon to be 71) lifetimes. None of us has dealt with a worldwide pandemic with the potential to kill 70,000,000 people (1% mortality, no sure vaccine yet available, no curative therapeutics yet available). None of us has ...
by bigskyguy
Sat May 09, 2020 5:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Recession coming (?) any change in investments?
Replies: 82
Views: 7164

Re: Recession coming (?) any change in investments?

Bear in mind that the present economic scenario has NO parallel in our (I’m soon to be 71) lifetimes. None of us has dealt with a worldwide pandemic with the potential to kill 70,000,000 people (1% mortality, no sure vaccine yet available, no curative therapeutics yet available). None of us has seen...
by bigskyguy
Sun May 03, 2020 4:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which Bond Fund: Tips, Total Bond, Other?
Replies: 11
Views: 1381

Re: Which Bond Fund: Tips, Total Bond, Other?

Bill Bernstein would likely advise that you take all your safe money and plunk it in the safest investment - treasuries. Invest the rest as you see fit. And should you choose that course, for the safe investments the two options are nominal fixed (treasuries) or real fixed (treasuries), depending up...
by bigskyguy
Fri May 01, 2020 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 12706

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

The Guardian article is written by Adam Tooze from Columbia who has written what is considered by many the definitive work on the 2008 financial crisis (Crashed). The Guardian article lays out the entirety of the events this March in exquisite detail. It does not however directly address the recent...
by bigskyguy
Fri May 01, 2020 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Collapse in Global Inflation Expectations
Replies: 106
Views: 6541

Re: The Collapse in Global Inflation Expectations

What impact might this have on arguments for or against investing in TIPS? To answer your question as to why I have invested in TIPS, it is because they track the CPI. For me, as a 70 year old retiree, they allow me to have an annually maturing investment that provides predictable purchasing power,...
by bigskyguy
Fri May 01, 2020 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 12706

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

I don't feel this question has been adequately answered, so I feel I should try. The question of "why have equities been rising so much in the past two weeks" has some fundamental flaws and misconceptions in it. The first being is recognizing why the fall was so dramatic with circuit breakers every...
by bigskyguy
Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 12706

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

I've appreciated the commentary here so far. As I've read through all, one of the main hallmarks seems to be that the Fed's simply massive injection of dollars into the system, being willing to purchase whatever is necessary to keep the economy functioning, has been the major force behind the marke...
by bigskyguy
Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 12706

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

I've appreciated the commentary here so far. As I've read through all, one of the main hallmarks seems to be that the Fed's simply massive injection of dollars into the system, being willing to purchase whatever is necessary to keep the economy functioning, has been the major force behind the market...
by bigskyguy
Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 12706

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

Sarcasm post. Nobody knows nuthin... I read this quote over and over...yack in the corner. Hazmat suit and mop, STAT. If one knows nothing and others know nothing , what is to discuss? Nobody probably knows the answer anyway. I will continue from my human and investment instincts. TINA...cash is a ...
by bigskyguy
Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 12706

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

It sounds like somebody might be sitting on a pile of cash trying to time when to put it in equities. If you have a +10 year perspective, why do you care about what the market's done in the past 10 trading days? The market doesn't care if you think it's overvalued. Not the case. My wife and I are r...
by bigskyguy
Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 12706

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

I've heard it often stated that markets hate uncertainty. Seems to me that the only certainty at present is the Fed will do what it takes, regardless. Seems that in light of the uncertainties regarding the pandemic, nothing else regarding our economy, near term and mid-term, is certain. If that is i...
by bigskyguy
Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 12706

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

I am trying to get my head around the recent and rapid rise in equities over the last few weeks. In the face of what can only be described as brutal economic conditions worldwide, why in the world should equities be priced for perfection? And the only logical reason that I can surmise is that when ...
by bigskyguy
Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 12706

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

It sounds like somebody might be sitting on a pile of cash trying to time when to put it in equities. If you have a +10 year perspective, why do you care about what the market's done in the past 10 trading days? The market doesn't care if you think it's overvalued. Not the case. My wife and I are r...
by bigskyguy
Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 12706

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

Well I appreciate the comments. Now let’s take today’s movement approaching a 3% rise in the Dow and the S&P. It’s certainly not driven by earnings reports, or economic advance, or inexpensive options, or new discoveries (the remdesivir info is very preliminary at best) or a dramatic improvement in ...
by bigskyguy
Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 12706

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

cableguy wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:58 pm
States are re-opening, big pharma is making progress on remedies and cures, and most importantly...there's no other place to invest!
So more money without more productivity - something will of necessity have to give.
by bigskyguy
Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 12706

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

visualguy wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:52 pm
Simple - huge amounts of money out there with no better alternative investment. It can stay detached from fundamentals for a long time.
Huge amounts of money, without huge amounts of economic growth. Sounds like a recipe for inflation to me.
by bigskyguy
Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 12706

Re: What explains the continued rise in equities?

I'm curious OP, did you ask the same question about why equities were plummeting in early March when very little data existed at the time as to the actual impact of the virus and its effect on the economy? People were guessing then as well, and yet the plummeting was seen to be perfectly rational. ...
by bigskyguy
Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What explains the continued rise in equities?
Replies: 167
Views: 12706

What explains the continued rise in equities?

I am trying to get my head around the recent and rapid rise in equities over the last few weeks. In the face of what can only be described as brutal economic conditions worldwide, why in the world should equities be priced for perfection? And the only logical reason that I can surmise is that when i...
by bigskyguy
Wed Apr 22, 2020 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does "Quantitative Easing" Lead to Higher Inflation?
Replies: 87
Views: 6005

Re: Does "Quantitative Easing" Lead to Higher Inflation?

QE has INDEED led to INFLATION. Where did most of this QE money go? Into real and financial assets. The price of investment grade bonds is absolutely ridiculous. This is a deeply entrenched belief in the financial press, but it doesn't ring completely true. I addressed specific issues with this ide...
by bigskyguy
Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does "Quantitative Easing" Lead to Higher Inflation?
Replies: 87
Views: 6005

Re: Does "Quantitative Easing" Lead to Higher Inflation?

:thumbsup
galeno wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:01 pm
QE has INDEED led to INFLATION.

Where did most of this QE money go?

Into real and financial assets.

The price of investment grade bonds is absolutely ridiculous.
by bigskyguy
Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does "Quantitative Easing" Lead to Higher Inflation?
Replies: 87
Views: 6005

Re: Does "Quantitative Easing" Lead to Higher Inflation?

But what about long term? Can you give me your take as to what will occur when the twin cyclones of ongoing deflation and ever expanding debt collide? That seems to be the financial definition of a black hole. For what it's worth, my sense is the U.S. economy will be successfully stabilized, and on...
by bigskyguy
Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does "Quantitative Easing" Lead to Higher Inflation?
Replies: 87
Views: 6005

Re: Does "Quantitative Easing" Lead to Higher Inflation?

Isn't it in any way possible that, if there are true hyperinflationary forces at work , inflation bursts out so suddenly and with such force it goes beyond what the Fed is able to control? Quite a supposition. Wherefrom are these "true hyper-inflationary forces" coming from? We are currently in the...
by bigskyguy
Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed may have fundamentally altered the nature of risk in the stock market
Replies: 51
Views: 6180

Re: The Fed may have fundamentally altered the nature of risk in the stock market

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/the-fed-may-have-fundamentally-altered-the-nature-of-risk-in-the-stock-market/ar-BB12NdAY?li=BBnbfcN In this article, Ben Carlson asks the big question: If the stock market during the worst economic contraction in 90 years can be smoothed out by go...
by bigskyguy
Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munger/Buffett on riding out the storm
Replies: 76
Views: 10481

Re: Munger/Buffett on riding out the storm

The deal was March 23rd prior to FEd intervention. When you throw trillions of dollars at a problem and then say you are willing to do so again, I think that goes a long way in fixing things. The new future may be very little time window for stock market crash "deals" as the fed can act quickly and...