Search found 258 matches

by Lauren Vignec
Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lowball offer on a home
Replies: 82
Views: 9826

Re: Lowball offer on a home

One risk is that a lowball offer often comes with no contingencies to make it look a bit tempting. If the seller knows of some major problem they may be more tempted to accept it and you could be stuck with a big problem. Another is that if you are working with a real estate agent then they may decide that you are wasting their time and drop you. Please give an update on what happens. We decided to pass and not offer. I think the reality of doing that much work hit us last night—regardless of the price. If you just don't want to do the work, then, yes, passing on the house is the right option. I will say from personal experience, though, that if a house has been on the market, and its price has already been cut, it is a great idea to offer...
by Lauren Vignec
Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Beta a distinct factor or a summation of other factors
Replies: 42
Views: 3119

Re: Is Beta a distinct factor or a summation of other factors

I am saying that the market will price on average the risks in stocks appropriately so, unless you have specific information about a specific security that is not incorporated into price, the best estimate of value is the market price & thus tilting will not add anything but volatility unless yon can time how the factors will be realized. The past data we have seen I think shows this. The fallacy many fall into is looking at the periods where factors were not known & heavily invested in. What some appear to believe that the market is not smart enough to price securities on a relative basis that include the effects of factors & by weighting a portfolio differently (by factors) you will get a benefit that is not available via the...
by Lauren Vignec
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you include your house in your net worth if you own it outright?
Replies: 89
Views: 10174

Re: Do you include your house in your net worth if you own it outright?

OK, so, the reason there is even a question is because there is net worth, but then there is also liquid net worth. People often say "net worth" when they mean "liquid net worth." And it makes sense why people would do that. I remember one time a successful entrepreneur was explaining to me that he had learned the difference between being "worth a million dollars" and "actually having a million dollars in the bank." He told me his business was worth x amount, but it "wasn't real" because it couldn't just be converted instantly into dollars. I told him, "NO! Your business is real wealth! Dollars in the bank are just 1s and 0s in a computer!" He never agreed with me. And, you know, I...
by Lauren Vignec
Thu Dec 21, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Becoming a Landlord: My Experiences
Replies: 183
Views: 48830

Re: Becoming a Landlord: My Experiences

Hi Denovo, This is a wonderful thread. I'm going to email your post to a few people who really need to read it. My own experience as a landlord is extremely limited, but I wanted to share it because many younger Bogleheads might be considering doing what I did. I had some financially responsible close friends that I had been renting with. I live in Seattle and I got very tired of rent increases. So I bought a 5 bedroom house that I live in, and also rent out to my friends. After all is said and done, I have to pay for repairs and that's it. This has been a wonderful experience for me, truly life-changing. But even in this limited case, I would have to strongly agree with much of what is said on this thread. First, you make money when you bu...
by Lauren Vignec
Mon Dec 18, 2017 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What exactly happened in Japan...and can it happen here?
Replies: 52
Views: 13545

Re: What exactly happened in Japan...and can it happen here?

Inquiring Bogleheads want to know: I'm very fuzzy about why the Japanese market took a huge dive and stayed down for so many years. Can some of the pundits on this board explain it simply? The "Japan" situation is usually used as a rationale for maintaining a significant amount of international diversification, but I never have quite understood what caused that situation to occur. And of course, the second part of the question. Could a similar scenario happen in the US? Hi El Greco, I used to spend a lot of time thinking about this, because I distinctly remember in the nineties thinking, "Well the Japanese stock market just has to come roaring back now. It's been down so long!" Well, I was not exactly right, was I? Righ...
by Lauren Vignec
Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement anxiety- emotionally and financially
Replies: 55
Views: 10021

Re: Retirement anxiety- emotionally and financially

Icecakes wrote: Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:18 pm My perspective may be jaded.

My wife and I now discuss both working part time.
You may or may not see it this way, but these two sentences represent real progress.

You have plenty of time to make decisions, and you have options that other people only dream about. Keep going in the direction you're going, with the conversations and the reflection.

And take your time.
by Lauren Vignec
Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Really struggling: advice on accepting this new job offer?
Replies: 31
Views: 4666

Re: Really struggling: advice on accepting this new job offer?

Cons of current position: Not a lot of career opportunity -the only immediate position of interest I can see would be managing a NA team within the next two years, but there are some question marks around whether this opportunity will be available. There are also some big organizational and supply chain problems which are really killing me. Our division is also the "red headed stepchild" of the organization, and is used to beef up the financial reports of the firm's priority business divisions I strongly agree with some of the other advice you've been given. It seems that you don't see the opportunities you want at your current job. You clearly want to leave, and that's one thing. But that's separate from the question of whether ...
by Lauren Vignec
Fri Jul 07, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Weak Evidence for International in Vanguard Research - Am I Missing Something?
Replies: 77
Views: 9562

Re: Weak Evidence for International in Vanguard Research - Am I Missing Something?

40% is not a large allocation to international because it is still less than the market weighting, although it is not much less. I think the US is around 53% or 54% of the global stock market.

Any time an investing strategy deviates from the market portfolio it is the strategy that needs a justification, not the market portfolio. It doesn't matter whether it's "slice and dice" with small and value or "put all your money in the S&P 500". So the Vanguard research shows, as far as I can tell, no justification for deviating from the market portfolio with regard to international stocks.
by Lauren Vignec
Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For retirement at 55 what is a good multiplier?
Replies: 65
Views: 14230

Re: For retirement at 55 what is a good multiplier?

Since you are not actually going to retire any time soon, and since you just need a target number, I would go with 30x. Basically, you would be shooting for around a 3% withdrawal rate.

The reasoning is that people are just living longer and longer, and since you are married, you might be better off planning for retirement of even longer than 40 years.

Obviously, everything can change in the next quarter of a century. Life happens. But you need a target to shoot for, so I would use 30x.
by Lauren Vignec
Tue Jun 27, 2017 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where to find a financially like-minded significant other?
Replies: 140
Views: 71383

Re: Where to find a financially like-minded significant other?

Once again thank you all for these high quality replies, it's so nice to hear other people's perspectives, especially when most folks in this forum embrace my same financial values. I admit if I relocated outside this area I would very likely meet people and potential partners who share my values, however, as you might imagine, job opportunities for technology are simply much better here than anywhere else: even after considering the HCOL, if one is "relatively frugal", the spread between income and cost of living is still higher than anywhere else basically. And that's without even counting the satisfaction of working on the very bleeding edge of the industry, which is something I'm passionate about. At the same time, I don't wa...
by Lauren Vignec
Fri May 26, 2017 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Risky to ask for raise with another offer?
Replies: 28
Views: 3970

Re: Risky to ask for raise with another offer?

I would drive the conversation away from HR and to your boss. Make the conversation less about a raise and more about greater responsibility and moving up with the company. If you truly are are the top of range for the position, why would you get a raise? Time with company? You can't quantify that and in my experience, the people that have been with the company the longest are the ones who don't innovate and try to make jobs more efficient. Turn your boss into a mentor and explain where you would like to be in next few years and what qualities you lack that could help move up. Only thing I have to add here: begin the conversation by telling your boss you would like his advice. Powerful people, or just people who like to feel powerful, like...
by Lauren Vignec
Thu May 18, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Justification for holding Emerging Markets?
Replies: 69
Views: 8673

Re: Justification for holding Emerging Markets?

TheTimeLord wrote:I don't have a large amount of emerging markets in my portfolio and I am beginning to question why I have any, especially since I have no real conviction about it and for the most part appreciate portfolio simplicity. What is the justification for having emerging markets? In reality I am not big on the concept of International as a whole being necessary for a U.S. investor.
The total international stock index holds some emerging markets stocks, so it is easy to have a simple allocation to emerging markets.

As far as why international at all? Because I cannot predict the future. That's all.
by Lauren Vignec
Thu May 18, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Learning how to spend
Replies: 27
Views: 3953

Re: Learning how to spend

Warning: Emotional Post Since a major part of my identity is that of a saver... ...However, being a saver has become such a part of my identity that I feel strange spending "lavishly." I even feel guilty when I suggest doing something and someone mentions that it would cost too much. This usually involves something travel related as I still don't get much pleasure from material possessions. I even feel defensive if I feel someone is classifying me as a spender or worse spendthrift, especially if there is a comment to the effect of "You shouldn't be spending so much." #triggered I'm wondering how others have coped with being predisposed to saving. Just give in and go for the richest guy in the graveyard? Thanks for readi...
by Lauren Vignec
Wed May 17, 2017 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Almost done saving for emergency fund...now what?
Replies: 8
Views: 1673

Re: Almost done saving for emergency fund...now what?

I am currently 26 years old, and ... - My goal is to have the option to quit my 9-5 job and live off of passive income within the next 10 years You are doing a great job of saving, and I love that you are looking to have the option to live off of passive income. Life happens--goals change, personalities change, careers change, relationships change. Having that option, though, is always wonderful, even if things change and you choose not to take it. The only specific thing I'm going to suggest is this. It's easy to see the downsides of "boring" investing, the kind of investing most of us practice and recommend. The stories of stock market declines and low returns are everywhere. When you look into more "exciting" ideas l...
by Lauren Vignec
Tue May 16, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Regret early retirement/downsizing
Replies: 260
Views: 68827

Re: Regret early retirement/downsizing

I may be a little out of the norm here, but as a thirty year old who was always told (by parents growing up and then by wife after marriage) that I cannot play so much video games, I cannot possibly imagine being bored after retirement....I will finally have all the time in the world to play all the video games that I have shelves because I had to focus on school and career. I can't even fathom the idea of being bored. Maybe I will think differently as I get older? Or maybe this is a fundamental difference between the previous generation and this generation? Well, here's some perspective. It's not always about having "nothing to do." My father passed away a few years ago. He was the pastor of a mission congregation, which means h...
by Lauren Vignec
Tue May 16, 2017 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best argument you've heard against passive/for active?
Replies: 49
Views: 7105

Re: Best argument you've heard against passive/for active?

I've not heard any good arguments against passive management. I have heard two good arguments for active management.

First, some asset classes are hard or impossible for a retail investor to get through passive funds. Second, the Wellington fund is a good example of the fact that, for many people, an active manager does a better job of selecting an essentially passive portfolio than the investor would do if they put together their own passive portfolio. When I say "essentially passive" I just mean that Wellington has low costs, low turnover and its returns are explained by factor exposure.
by Lauren Vignec
Thu Jan 12, 2017 8:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Financial Moves You've Made
Replies: 158
Views: 27738

Re: Best Financial Moves You've Made

My best financial move was the one I hated the most: starting my own business in the middle of 2009 because I absolutely could not find a decent job.
by Lauren Vignec
Thu Jan 12, 2017 1:15 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Sad News About a Respected Forum Member
Replies: 118
Views: 30567

Re: Sad News About a Respected Forum Member

Somehow, since this is an internet forum, I just think people are going to live forever. Like their screen names freeze them in time.

Meph is one of the few participants that I absolutely always paid attention to.
by Lauren Vignec
Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to politely fire my financial advisor
Replies: 66
Views: 23651

Re: How to politely fire my financial advisor

My question, then, is this: how do I politely fire this guy? "Thank you for your assistance in the past. You have been very helpful, but I've decided to move my money to a lower cost (or another) provider." This is a statement, not a introduction to a discussion. If the "advisor" insists on trying to have a discussion, just keep saying "thanks, but this decision has already been made." Do not get drawn into a discussion. No matter what you say, you can't win. I wanted to support this way of making the statement. I am a financial advisor, and if a client leaves, the best thing is a note or email that just says, "Dear So-and-So, Thank you for your help these past years. We have decided to move our assets to...
by Lauren Vignec
Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: You have 5-10 minutes to teach someone about personal finance
Replies: 54
Views: 6413

Re: You have 5-10 minutes to teach someone about personal finance

So based on some of these responses, I will be sure to mention bogleheads and the principle of low fee investing, starting early, and living below your means. If I were to modify the question to read "Assuming someone will go read about the topics you recommend, what topics would you tell them to go understand?" This can include when to buy a home, when/what kind of car to drive, avoiding unnecessary insurance, etc. The main point of this is to know what to tell my friends and family when they admit to me that "they don't know what they don't know", but are intending to research further. I assume investing, saving, and living below means is the bread and butter of financial freedom, but what other topics are secondary b...
by Lauren Vignec
Tue Jan 03, 2017 7:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: You have 5-10 minutes to teach someone about personal finance
Replies: 54
Views: 6413

Re: You have 5-10 minutes to teach someone about personal finance

We all make decisions with our emotions. Spending on stuff for status or therapy or quick hits of pleasure feels good for a while but the feeling fades fast. Nothing feels better, day to day, than when you make far more than your daily living expenses. Eliminating financial stress improved my life more than any purchase ever could. Our lives are governed by our habits. So spend less than you make. Get used to it. Make it a habit. Go after what you REALLY want in life. Speaking of that, only spend on what you really want. Some day, you're going to retire. When that happens, every financial question collapses to one: will you outlive your money? Or will your money outlive you? Once you're used to saving, start investing. Use your 401k if you ...
by Lauren Vignec
Tue Apr 22, 2014 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doesn't Matter - Does Matter - Good Post by Ben Carlson
Replies: 58
Views: 9799

Re: Doesn't Matter - Does Matter - Good Post by Ben Carlson

dl7848 wrote: He defines emotional intelligence in terms of self-awareness, altruism, personal motivation, empathy, and the ability to love and be loved
That's one heck of a list.
by Lauren Vignec
Thu Mar 27, 2014 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statement of the Retirement Funding Problem
Replies: 89
Views: 10463

Re: Statement of the Retirement Funding Problem

What are the reasons that people resist buying annuities? It seems like the logical solution. If I was the retirement czar directing retirement funding for other people, I would make everyone buy an annuity with their money. Yet, I am not sure I would do it for myself with my own money. _______________________________________ ** My guess is that many financial practitioners would not recommend that their clients buy annuities because it goes against their own interests. Hello Grayfox, A few thoughts. The first is that in my experience most people either have far more money than they need or far less. So either they can do pretty much "whatever they want" or else they are simply choosing when (not if) their standard of living will...
by Lauren Vignec
Sun Feb 23, 2014 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to convince family & friends to use Boglehead Method?
Replies: 61
Views: 7439

Re: How to convince family & friends to use Boglehead Method

VictoriaF wrote:People like to buy, they don't like to be sold to.

Victoria
Dear God. If only someone had explained this to me fifteen years ago about dating.

Wait. What was this thread about?
by Lauren Vignec
Sun Feb 23, 2014 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone seen the Japanese Stock Market?
Replies: 73
Views: 11292

Re: Has anyone seen the Japanese Stock Market?

richard wrote: Labor force participation http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CIVPART
I think about all sorts of weird stuff that I'd probably be happier if I didn't think about.

I wonder if 200 years from now everyone will look back at 1982- 2008 and call it, "The Great Labor Force Participation Bubble."

Aren't we already living in the era of "Peak Child"?
by Lauren Vignec
Fri Feb 21, 2014 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Better to be nice than right: A thank you to Taylor Larimore
Replies: 7
Views: 1498

Better to be nice than right: A thank you to Taylor Larimore

Hello Bogleheads, This was originally written as a letter to my 21 year-old self. As such, please feel free to share it with anyone. I had wanted to wait until I was "ready" to write it. But a few months ago my father passed away, which has changed the shape of the world for me. When I heard Taylor had turned 90 I realized I had better write this now or else he might not get to read it. So the letter is addressed to my younger self, but it is a thank you note to Taylor. The letter was originally posted here . Dear Lauren, Soon you will “meet” Taylor Larimore online, and he will give you two of the best pieces of advice you will ever receive. Unfortunately, you are not going to listen. This letter will never be read by you, since i...
by Lauren Vignec
Tue Oct 22, 2013 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting Started As An Advisor
Replies: 19
Views: 3778

Re: Getting Started As An Advisor

neurosphere wrote: Question, for the average Boglehead with an above average understand of personal and some business tax rules/laws/issues, how hard is it to become an enrolled agent?
It isn't hard if you buy one of those resources that allows you to take the practice tests over and over again. The EA exam is spread out over three tests and you can take each whenever you'd like and in whatever order.

Getting an EA is what I did, so of course I'm going to justify the decision. But for someone who wants to practice hourly financial planning, the benefit of an EA is that it allows you to immediately do something of great value for clients (it allows you to represent them before the IRS).
by Lauren Vignec
Sun Oct 20, 2013 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BOGLEHEADS 12 ANNOUNCEMENT
Replies: 92
Views: 26901

Re: BOGLEHEADS 12 ANNOUNCEMENT

Does anyone have links to the slides that were used in Jack's presentation, or in the presentations at Vanguard?
by Lauren Vignec
Sun Oct 20, 2013 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share with us: What was the best thing you learned at BH12
Replies: 35
Views: 4240

Re: Share with us: What was the best thing you learned at B

Honestly, the most interesting thing I learned is how popular passive investing is becoming. We really might win this battle.
by Lauren Vignec
Tue Oct 15, 2013 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth
Replies: 136
Views: 30878

Re: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth

But I also don't observe any clear trend either up or down in P/E10. The mean has drifted randomly between about 14 and 18. Hello Grayfox, I came to believe that stocks were risky to most investors mostly because they do badly at the worst possible times. And arguments about institutional investors and infinite time frames didn't make sense. Institutions don't make decisions. Money managers and investment teams make decisions. Those institutional investors might be even more worried about bad returns at bad times than the average retiree. If stocks are risky mostly because they do badly at bad times, then perhaps P/E shouldn't have much of an upward trend. So when I think about future stock returns, my theory makes me feel a little bit bet...
by Lauren Vignec
Tue Oct 01, 2013 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Three Aspects of Risk."
Replies: 89
Views: 9735

Re: "Three Aspects of Risk."

Rodc wrote: My preference is to educate and let people make their own decisions. People have very different evaluations of the value of money and risk. Unfortunately it is unclear if many are listening to anyone with a clue on either side of the issue. How many of these people have heard of the 4% rule, indexing, liability matching, Zvi Bodi or Merton? Or Bogle? Or Shiller?
Well, unhappily, according to one recent survey (by ING, so take it with a grain of salt) only 8% of people who haven't retired yet believe that their standard of living will fall when they retire. On the other hand, 33% of retirees say their standard of living has fallen since retirement. Not good news.
by Lauren Vignec
Tue Oct 01, 2013 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do stocks go up beyond the rate of inflation?
Replies: 75
Views: 8408

Re: Why do stocks go up beyond the rate of inflation?

JoMoney wrote:[There isn't always a persistent "premium" in stocks over bonds... but generally, over time - the market is efficient enough that people figure out what's going on and the market corrects (or over corrects). Given enough time, stocks have returned more but it's not a persistent premium.
Yes, exactly. That is why it is an expected return and not a guaranteed one. And stocks have a higher expected return than bonds because they are riskier than bonds. You don't always get what you expect. The risk is always there. The return might not be.
by Lauren Vignec
Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do stocks go up beyond the rate of inflation?
Replies: 75
Views: 8408

Re: Why do stocks go up beyond the rate of inflation?

Valuethinker wrote:
And what I was reacting to was the notion that we would simply invest in TIPS...
I don't want a reaction. I want a response. Remember, we are talking about expected returns, not historical returns.

Stocks have a higher expected return than bonds because stocks are riskier than bonds.

What is your response to that statement?
by Lauren Vignec
Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Three Aspects of Risk."
Replies: 89
Views: 9735

Re: "Three Aspects of Risk."

bertilak wrote:
Dick Purcell wrote:Do you think influence leaders should push the 95% one way or the other? -- or just make the alternatives clear?
I strongly believe the best thing to do is to make the investment situation clear. I say "situation" because I believe the alternatives involve more than just investment strategy.
I basically agree with you, so please don't take this as an argument. Just...let's not pretend that this is even remotely, kinda-sorta easy.
by Lauren Vignec
Fri Sep 27, 2013 5:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: career in music?
Replies: 45
Views: 4163

Re: career in music?

I want to know what my niece can expect if she tries to become a professional composer. Assume for the sake of argument that she is talented, hard-working, professional, and easy to work with. She will of course live her own life and make her own choices. I just want to know what she is getting into, in case she asks for my opinion. Bottom line: What is her likelihood of success? If anyone here works in the music industry, I would particularly value your thoughts. Hello FF, One of my closest friends in life is a professional composer. I have a few friends who are literally rock stars, and many friends who are professional musicians of one sort or another--rock, pop, jazz, classical and experimental. I am also a very good musician, but not ...
by Lauren Vignec
Tue Sep 10, 2013 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do stocks go up beyond the rate of inflation?
Replies: 75
Views: 8408

Re: Why do stocks go up beyond the rate of inflation?

Valuethinker wrote: Nobody in this thread has raised a good reason why stocks *will* outperform inflation in the future.
Of course not. That's because the statement, "Stocks *will* outperform inflation" is false. It is false over the next minute, the next hour, the next day, the next year, the next century.
Valuethinker wrote:
We just bet they will because they always have.
No.

First, stocks have not always beaten inflation. They certainly didn't for Japanese investors for over twenty years since 1989. They didn't for the people who invested in markets that got expropriated. Second, stocks have high expected returns because they are risky, not because of history.
by Lauren Vignec
Sat Sep 07, 2013 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do stocks go up beyond the rate of inflation?
Replies: 75
Views: 8408

Re: Why do stocks go up beyond the rate of inflation?

Where is the extra return ultimately coming from in the economy? Hello Boggler, Don't follow the money. At this point in history, money is absolutely nothing more than the method of exchanging and accounting that makes exchanging and accounting easier. We don't even print money that much any more--money is mostly 1s and 0s in computer languages. Follow the people. Follow the goods. Follow the services. Follow the massive improvements in public health, and massive increases in knowledge (represented economically by improved technology, but the knowledge itself is valuable.) I'm not massively richer than my great-grandparents because I have more money. I'm massively richer because what I take for granted, they couldn't have even imagined. L
by Lauren Vignec
Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why aren't Car dealers prepared to deal?
Replies: 91
Views: 13327

Re: Why aren't Car dealers prepared to deal?

A big dealer negotiates what - maybe a thousand+ units a year in sales? You buy a car how often? Maybe once every couple years? Who has more practice, experience in negotiating, and specific experience in the industry? Of course the dealer is going to be in a much better position to negotiate a unit. Go private party used. Determine the model you want. Then, simply search CL and other ads until you find what you want in an excellent condition, low mileage unit at a reasonable price. Then, negotiate. The averages are a lot better there. I'm tempted to use Enterprise or Hertz used rentals for my next purchase, since they apparently have a no-haggle price policy, with everything priced below KBB value. Most of the ones in my local area have a...
by Lauren Vignec
Tue Jul 30, 2013 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pensions, actuaries, and stocks for the long run
Replies: 155
Views: 17773

Re: Pensions, actuaries, and stocks for the long run

Verde wrote:
Another question raised by this discussion – if a future benefit depends on the uncertain ability of a future taxbase to fund it, is it really guaranteed?
Hello Verde,

Detroit's bankruptcy claim is a big deal, and will set a precedent. Right now, it looks like the answer to your question is going to be answered negatively. No, the future benefit is not really guaranteed.

I believe this is a financial planning question, not a political question. I don't know whether such benefits should be guaranteed. But at present, the most likely outcome is that the courts will decide they are not guaranteed.

Every retiree relying on a state, city or county pension should consider how secure their pension really is.
by Lauren Vignec
Thu Jul 18, 2013 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Sad news - Pat Larimore]
Replies: 225
Views: 26838

Re: [Sad news - Pat Larimore]

Hello Taylor,

So that is the woman you married. Thank you so much for sharing the video--absolutely beautiful.
by Lauren Vignec
Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing "Gangnam Style"
Replies: 8
Views: 2518

Re: Investing "Gangam Style"

NightOwl wrote:
The dude in the neon yellow suit rocks.
I absolutely need to get one of those suits.

Wait, what is the song about again?
by Lauren Vignec
Fri Sep 28, 2012 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Lucia charged by SEC - "Buckets of Money" Sep 5, 2012
Replies: 136
Views: 17780

Re: Ray Lucia charged by SEC - "Buckets of Money" Sep 5, 201

grayfox wrote: :arrow: Now I understand what's going on. The buckets stuff is just a bunch of hand waving to get you into the tent. Then the non-traded REITS are how they actually pick your pocket.

Yes, and also to sell variable annuities.
by Lauren Vignec
Wed Jul 25, 2012 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Fund SEC Yield below 2%
Replies: 73
Views: 9389

Re: Total Bond Fund SEC Yield below 2%

Charybdis wrote:And in Europe there is negative nominal yield in many countries, for example in Germany.
I hadn't realized things had gotten this bad in places like Germany, but this allows me to make a point that seems to always get lost in the discussion about low bond yields.

As long as you aren't holding long term bonds, the really scary scenario for bond holders is not that rates go up. If rates go up, sure, you will suffer a temporary loss. But you will immediately begin reaping the rewards of a higher yield. The scary possibility is that the rates never go "back up" for as long as you have left to live.
by Lauren Vignec
Thu Jun 14, 2012 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does an Alpha fantasy make sense in your life?
Replies: 19
Views: 2356

Re: Does an Alpha fantasy make sense in your life?

And here I thought Rick Ferri had finally gone off the deep end and written a post about dating.
by Lauren Vignec
Thu Jun 14, 2012 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Books that have actually changed your life, in a way.
Replies: 172
Views: 22915

Re: Books that have actually changed your life, in a way.

The Death of Ivan Ilyich, by leo Tolstoi read at age 19. It is about a judge who is dying at age 45. He thought he lived the good life, but realized he had only lived for himself. His own death, he hoped, would free others around him. That short story also affected me powerfully, and I think at an even younger age. Later on, The Dead by James Joyce profoundly changed me. There is a single scene in Anna Karenina that I will never forget. It's the one where Anna's husband suspects she is cheating on him. He goes around and around mentally trying to deal with the issue, and he also paces around and around in his house. Every time he thinks the same thought, he ends up in the same point at his house. The book that changed my life the most was ...
by Lauren Vignec
Fri Jun 08, 2012 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Fund SEC Yield below 2%
Replies: 73
Views: 9389

Re: Total Bond Fund SEC Yield below 2%

zotty wrote:
Lauren Vignec wrote:The value of a stock is the worth of all of the future cash flows expected to be generated by the firm discounted by an appropriate risk-adjusted rate.

http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/403/fairy.htm
Just curious. what about net buyback of shares? I think shareholders deserve a higher yield, but doesn't that value belong in the calculation somewhere?
They do matter, but I personally believe they do not matter all that much. This is a great example of an issue where I very much hope to be proven wrong.
by Lauren Vignec
Fri Jun 08, 2012 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Fund SEC Yield below 2%
Replies: 73
Views: 9389

Re: Total Bond Fund SEC Yield below 2%

nisiprius wrote:
First of all, at least to a first approximation, in an era where we have mutual funds and can efficiently and cheaply buy or liquid $162.49 worth of a stock fund on 24 hour's notice, there's no particular significance to how much of a dividend is paid out.
Not true at all. The value of a stock is the worth of all of the future cash flows expected to be generated by the firm discounted by an appropriate risk-adjusted rate. You don't believe in the Returns Fairy, do you? I don't, anyway.

http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/403/fairy.htm
by Lauren Vignec
Fri Jun 08, 2012 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads advice for getting rich
Replies: 63
Views: 8740

Re: Bogleheads advice for getting rich

1. Save 2. Live well below your means 3. Marry well The Boglehead philosophy has taught me to focus on the things that are meaningful to me and let the "market guru's" do what they do. I feel "rich" because I live a simple life with a wonderful woman. Although I am fairly young (late 30's) I learned long ago that being rich and being happy don't always go hand in hand. There are some many gambling options out there, like online poker and sports betting. They seem much more interesting than trying to get rich in the stock market. If you hit it big, congrats. And if it makes you happy thats a bonus. Good Luck. This is excellent advice, but I'd change the order: 1. Marry well 2. Live well below your means 3. Save Of course...
by Lauren Vignec
Fri Jun 08, 2012 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Fund SEC Yield below 2%
Replies: 73
Views: 9389

Re: Total Bond Fund SEC Yield below 2%

And the situation is not unprecedented. It may be the first time in history for these two mutual funds, but according to the SBBI 2010 Classic Yearbook, the income return from stocks was higher than the income return from intermediate-term government bonds for, looks like every single year from 1926 through 1957 inclusive. http://img542.imageshack.us/img542/4625/stocksbonds2.png http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=97641&p=1410198 Interesting. For a long time, dividends were higher than bond yields and "everyone knew" that they had to be because stocks were so risky. According to Peter Bernstein, in the 1950's when bond yields moved higher than dividend rates, "everyone knew" that it was just tem...
by Lauren Vignec
Tue May 08, 2012 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economics. [Does it help the investor?]
Replies: 83
Views: 7119

Re: Economics. What do you think?

Bogleheads: A Boglehead, wrote: "I'm looking for a gentle introductory book on economics." This raises the question: Does a superior knowledge of economics help a long-term Boglehead investor? What do you think? Thank you and best wishes. Taylor Hello Taylor, Microeconomics has been enormously helpful for me in investing. I'm thinking of opportunity costs, marginal utility, marginal costs--all those basic concepts that help illuminate how firms and households make decisions. Behavioral economics has been extremely helpful. I'm also thinking of how I learned financial history and the history of various markets. Certainly, lots of stuff in microeconomics could help a long-term Boglehead investor. However, anyone who has already dec...