Bogleheads.org

If you are just renewing in the same state you currently have a license for, you may not be issued a new ID number. Ohio does not, for example.

Thanks HeavyChevy for running these numbers. I will give the typical horrible anecdotal example of 2022, my first year of retirement. My 50/50 portfolio returned around -10%, which while not great, was better than any of the three fund portfolio components in 2022. This was primarily due to contributions from my large value and small value funds, as well as a chunk of bond money I moved into a stable value fund and a small allocation to the always hated commodities. While one year does not a retirement make, it sure helped at a minimum from a psychological basis. How did they do in 2020? I am guessing not well. I have returns by year going back to 1999 as well as the return of an equivalent benchmark with the same stock/bond/international ...

runner3081 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 2:29 pm Sell sports car, pay off mortgage then buy a Miata is the official BH recommendation.

Used Miata of course, don’t want to be reckless here

6 month plummet would likely be simultaneous with 10 year plummet, so you would miss the boat. There is no jumping ship, you would need to be predictive, not reactive. You can very clearly see that effect here with the recent volatility. https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202303 Since I don't like 10Y at 3.5%, 10Y going lower doesn't miss me anything. The expected rate of total return remains at 3.5% even if the rates fall, since your future bonds will yield less and less. There's no free lunch here. If you don’t like 10Y at 3.5%, you would like it even less when it goes to 2.5% and money markets go to 1% or less for the next 10 ...

You don’t but there sure is suddenly a lot of interest in short term bonds which I don’t recall seeing a lot of until rates went up. Why buy a 10 year bond yielding 3.5% when I can get 5% in a money market? There is a reason and it’s good to spend some time thinking about what that reason might be. I don't see issues wanting 5% in a money market over 10Y@3.5% to be honest. Some folks are looking at Ally's NPCD 4.75% for similar reasons. That’s fine but if this is money invested for the long term, say for 10 years or more, there is risk involved with either approach. In general, longer term bonds return more than shorter term bonds if held to maturity. That’s only incorrect if rates continue rising, but we can’t predict that.

martincmartin wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 9:30 am

Kenkat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 9:24 am You don’t but there sure is suddenly a lot of interest in short term bonds which I don’t recall seeing a lot of until rates went up. Why buy a 10 year bond yielding 3.5% when I can get 5% in a money market?

Because you get that 3.5% for the whole year, every year, for 10 years. In other words, if buy $100 worth of 10 year bonds now, you will get $141 back.

Your 5% in your money market fund is today, but can change daily. The market expects interest rates to go down over the coming months. So, they expect years 2 through 10 to offer less than 3.5%.

Yes, that is the reason.

We use fresh ground chuck from the local butcher shop right down the street. 2 lbs. makes five burgers, so slightly above 1/3 pound each. Hand pressed at home. No seasoning, grilled on a hot gas grill at 550 degrees about 4 minutes per side. Cheese if desired is either American, Cheddar or Jalapeño Pepper Jack, slightly melted right at the end of grilling. Coarse kosher salt and ground pepper to taste. Toppings vary by season but typically include pickles, fresh tomato when available, raw onion or lettuce. Sometimes bacon or sautéed mushrooms. Ketchup, mustard or mayo. [Edited to add] I feel compelled to add that, as others have pointed out, a good bun is also a critical component. I like toasted as well. The Brioche buns from Aldi are exce...

rob wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 9:24 am A runny egg on top.... Needs to drip down to your elbows while eating

My brother in law jokes that everything is better with an egg on top! He’s not wrong.

Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 8:53 pm

retiringwhen wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 8:02 pm The bond market is way harder to time than the stock market. It just seems easier until you try to actually do it.

BTW, I don't think it is easy to time the stock market.

Why do you need to time the bond market? Bonds literally tell you how much you will earn over the course of duration when you buy them. You buy them if you like the rates, don't if you don't.

You don’t but there sure is suddenly a lot of interest in short term bonds which I don’t recall seeing a lot of until rates went up. Why buy a 10 year bond yielding 3.5% when I can get 5% in a money market?

There is a reason and it’s good to spend some time thinking about what that reason might be.

So much for it being plainly obvious that rates were going to keep going up.

I took advantage of a Capital One bonus about a year ago. In the fine print, it stated a date such that if I had a Capital One savings account at any time after that date, I did not qualify. I think the date was 2019 or so. I had long ago had a Capital One savings account but had closed it at some point prior to 2019, so I qualified for the bonus. So I would look at the detail of the ”Terms and Conditions” for similar wording; I would guess you will find something that will make you not qualified. That said, you might be able to move money somewhere else and receive a bonus.

I did a simple table in Evernote to track family prescriptions and cost via insurance or Kroger Savings Club. Google Sheets would also work. Column headings are Person, Medication, Dosage, Quantity, Kroger Cost and Insurnace Cost. You could add a column for Refills Remaining if you wanted to track that. It’s simple enough to roll your own spreadsheet.

Money market funds are subject to runs much in the same way bank accounts are. While money market funds invest in very short term securities, they still have a duration of 30-60 days typically, so if everyone wants their money at once, those positions have to be sold. Sometimes buyers are scarce.

A run on money market funds was a factor in the 2008 financial crisis as well as in the March, 2020 Covid crisis:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/The_200 ... ket_crisis
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/23/busi ... eform.html

Thanks HeavyChevy for running these numbers.

I will give the typical horrible anecdotal example of 2022, my first year of retirement. My 50/50 portfolio returned around -10%, which while not great, was better than any of the three fund portfolio components in 2022. This was primarily due to contributions from my large value and small value funds, as well as a chunk of bond money I moved into a stable value fund and a small allocation to the always hated commodities.

While one year does not a retirement make, it sure helped at a minimum from a psychological basis.

alex_686 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 24, 2023 11:10 am Short answer is no.

Sequence of Risk returns are tied to volatility. Value stocks have equal or higher volatility than the total market.

I guess the next question would be is whether 50% value and 50% total market has higher or lower volatility than 100% total market.

A lot of good responses here and I recognize some of the posters from previous discussions, so I thought I would share my experience. My adult son is on SSDI. He worked long enough to have sufficient credits to qualify for SSDI. We did consult with a well regarded local attorney who specialized in SSDI. He was helpful in guiding us through the process. We submitted massive documentation, in his case going back to pre-school records, school age reports, medical professional reports and history, etc. In our situation, the initial application was approved. In retrospect, we probably could have gotten through the process without the attorney but I considered it worthwhile to insure we made the very best case from the start. It was helpful to ha...

Reliability wise, only Fiat is worse. As many mechanics have said, BMW took their failed and thrown out parts to build this thing. It is fun to drive, however. As fun and more reliable, Toyota GR86, Mazda Miata, Mazda 3, Toyota GR Corolla, VW GTi. Personally, I could care less about a small car in this land of SUVs. I drove a Lotus Elise for quite a while and remember one time on the highway looking up at an SUV next to me that I didn't recognize. I let him pull ahead to read the tail. It was a Ford Focus. I've always been a Miata fan, but have you looked at the prices of used Miatas lately? You can get a nice Generation 2 (NB, 1999-2005) Miata in the $10,000 range. My son bought a 99 recently that’s in good, not perfect, shape, high miles...

Your original post did not make any reference to deleting the YouTube app from your phone or re-installing it from the App Store. You also said you logged out of your Apple ID on your iPhone; you did not say you logged out of the YouTube app itself on the iPhone.

To delete the YouTube app from your iPhone, long press it and select Remove App (in Red).

Log out of YouTube on your iPhone and log back in. If that doesn’t work, delete the YouTube app on your iPhone, go to the Apple App Store and re-install the app. Then log in to YouTube on your iPhone.

The reason Apple is not able to help you is because this is probably an issue with the YouTube app itself, not Apple.

Is the court order the broker is referring to an order from the probate court? I believe in Illinois that assets held joint tenancy in common would have to go through the probate process to be released to the surviving owner.

There are lawyers who specialize in this and they will typically do an initial consultation with you for no fee. A common arrangement is for the attorney to take 25% of any “back pay” award. Back pay occurs when you receive a lump sum for benefits earned between the application date / date of disability and the approval date.

SSDI can be difficult to be approved for. It is based on having a disability in a pre-determined category that prevents you from earning above a certain threshold. It is not really a subjective decision on the part of social security but rather providing sufficient documentation and evidence that fits the criteria.

I’d at least look into an initial consultation with an attorney.

We recently stayed in Gulf Shores and it was very nice overall.

Probably my favorite place mentioned that I have stay in the general area was Navarre Beach; it’s definitely a quieter place if that’s what you like. When we went, I joked it was two restaurants and a convenience store; anything else, you had to take a short drive across the bridge to the mainland. I found it very relaxing.

We did a day trip to Dauphin Island (also mentioned above) when we were in Gulf Shores and really liked it a lot - again, more of a quiet beach community if that’s what you are looking for.

Nobody really knows what will happen going forward; does the bond market “need” to settle down, will it or won’t it (if indeed it needs to), etc? The time to make the recommended move would have ideally been back in January of 2022 before rates started going up. It’s a bit late now. If you are a long term investor, you are typically best served by sticking with your strategy. Short term moves in or out of particular investments may or may not work out but my experience is that your emotions tend to betray you more often than help when it comes to investing. If you have more immediate needs for this money, it is a different question, but over the long run, intermediate bonds such as those held in average by these funds will have higher retur...

My experience is that insurance companies are very good at collecting premiums from customers; it is when you have a claim that differences may become apparent. I don’t have any experience with USAA, but I switched from one of the big companies to a regional carrier after some negative claims hassles and have been happy with the service I receive, so I have stayed put even if it may be a bit more expensive.

I’ve owned it since 1998. You can’t really argue much with the historical result; what happens in the future no one knows, but at least it is relatively low cost and low turnover, so it has some of the same attributes of what makes index funds a good choice.

Why do you expect to need to replace the catalytic converter? It’s not a part that typically goes bad.

What you stated in your original post is correct. The brokerage or mutual fund is just holding the underlying assets for you; you effectively own a piece of the underlying assets of the fund or own the securities such as individual stocks or bonds being held for you.

I also hold this fund although in a lower percentage than you do. The Vanguard fund holds the higher rated high yield aka “junk” bonds. This fund will act like a hybrid of stocks and bonds in terms of performance. If the economy goes into a recession, these bonds will lose some value due to concerns among investors that the bonds will default. The fund will also slowly lose value over time due to downgrades or defaults; this is the risk for receiving the higher yield. If this fund makes up 24% of your portfolio, covers your $700 income need and you are not taking other withdraws, I personally think your strategy is fine. High yield bonds get discussed a lot here, with some people loving them and others not. There are of course other ways to...

The 30 day treasury yield has fallen from a high of 4.83% on March 9 to 4.23% today. The 8 week treasury has fallen as well but a little less overall and is in the same range (4.57% right now). That’s a decent proxy for money market funds. So - if rates would stay closer to the current value for a period of time, you’d expect to see the money market fund fall a half percent or so from its current level. That is a big IF however as the fund is constantly having older securities mature and replacing them with new, so the fund will tend to lag the current rate trend a bit. And rates could always increase again in a week. Or go down more. We just don’t know for sure.

One risk is if you take your car in for service with a really dirty filter they will change it and charge you 10 times what it would cost to do it yourself. This is especially a risk with a spouse who doesn’t know better and OKs the charge. This. I had a nice, expensive filter that got replaced in 6 months with a cheap filter at 4x the price exactly in this manner. Some do this aggressively. Jiffy lube near my place for instance. They'll proudly display a filter from afar and claim it'll damage your engine, but they can fix the problem easily and bill it to you. Most folks who don't know better will gladly accept it. Yes, no matter how new or old it is, it’s dirty and should be replaced according to them. Same with your wiper blades, cabin...

One thing I will point out if you don’t know and that I recently learned helping my son roll over a Roth 401(k). If there is any employer match money, that actually needs to be rolled over to a traditional rollover IRA unless you want to do a Roth conversion and pay taxes on the rollover amount. The employee sourced money can go to a Roth IRA rollover. So if yo rollover a Roth 401(k), you would potentially have two rollover accounts, one Roth and one traditional. That's because employer match money cannot be contributed to a Roth account--so there can never be employer-match money in a Roth account in a 401(k). Correct, it’s just that most 401(k) statements or websites gloss over the fact that the money is in two separate buckets - i.e., h...

A common theme I see in lower priced off-brand or budget line tire reviews that is most concerning to me is relatively poor wet/rain performance.

You could contact Taylor Larimore on the forum and ask if he needs any help removing barnacles off the sail boat

Open the pod bay doors, HAL ChatGPT

One thing I will point out if you don’t know and that I recently learned helping my son roll over a Roth 401(k). If there is any employer match money, that actually needs to be rolled over to a traditional rollover IRA unless you want to do a Roth conversion and pay taxes on the rollover amount. The employee sourced money can go to a Roth IRA rollover. So if yo rollover a Roth 401(k), you would potentially have two rollover accounts, one Roth and one traditional.

I don’t remember this much free floating anxiety at Bogleheads during the 2008 GFC. That's an interesting observation. My thought is that in 2008 we were a more unified country and didn't see a conspiracy under every bed (ESG, DEI, "woke" isn't what caused this). I think part of it was in 2008, it was an across the board financial crisis - we were all along for the same ride. In this case, a specific set of banking customers were at risk while the rest of us were seemingly ok. We think. Maybe. People want to know - in my specific situation, am I good or will I be the next one circling the drain? To use a bad analogy which I tend to love to do, it’s like a small group of people got very ill eating some bad sausage and so now every...

The Vanguard TIPS fund is not near an all time high; it is actually at or near the lowest it’s been in 5 years or more. Given that none of us can reliably predict the future, I would put together a plan to get to your desired asset allocation. Do it all at once now or you could move a chunk in every quarter over the next year to smooth out any valuation concerns.

Charles Joseph wrote: ↑Tue Mar 14, 2023 5:59 pm

John Z wrote: ↑Tue Mar 14, 2023 5:25 pm Short term (1-day, 1-week, 1-month, 3-month and YTD are in the bottom 2 quartiles of performance which is a good thing, you would be buying in low.

Or, manager risk is showing up. Matt Hand just recently took the helm with Michael Reckmeyer's retirement (equity side).

I sold Wellesley a few months ago when I finally surrendered to all index. I miss it, but for me (and me only) I had to pick sides in order to keep sane. Active? Or index?

It tends to hold more value stocks which have not done well this year. Last year value stocks were great. Overall it’s a solid, low cost low turnover active fund.

Telemarkers can spoof the caller ID and make it show whatever they want it to. The idea is you see a number that looks familiar, or alarming and you answer the call.

While I don’t have direct experience with Douglas, the OEM tires on our Dodge Caravan (now long ago sold) were Goodyear Integrity. These were Goodyear’s budget tires. When they wore out, we replaced them with Goodyear ComforTred which is one of Goodyear’s premium tires. The Integrity’s by comparison were: similar on dry pavement, not as good in the rain or snow, louder, and wore out more quickly. I’d expect Douglas are similar. For a car driven less frequently, mostly in dry weather, they are probably passable. Anything else, or if money is not really the issue, I’d get something better.

paul e, you are taking a bit of a beating here - but you seem to be taking it well, so kudos. As others have said, nobody knows what will happen. We all have our “gut”, but things change quickly. The current banking crisis came out of nowhere, for example. Now of course we will see people coming out of the woodwork and claiming “I saw this coming - I TOLD you this would happen”. And they may have. But my experience over time is that you might makes some good calls and you might make some bad. So - what I would do is: think about the current situation. What happens if your gut is right? What does it mean to you? What happens if you turn out to be wrong? What would that mean to you? And then chart a course that you can live with if either sce...

Even the most pro-free market WSJ admits that this is a bailout. Free market doesn't mean that only the rich have free put options while the poor have to pay for it. If there is to be a bailout, then there should be a commitment that it will be borne entirely by all big depositors, not by FDIC. The WSJ, while a fine news organization, has a definite political slant to it (as many media sources do). I would take opinion pieces in the WSJ as exactly that - someone’s opinion aligned to the views and orientation of the media source itself. I would say the WSJ’s free market orientation makes it more likely to want to call this a bailout, not less. Laissez faire capitalism has some flaws in my opinion, but that tends to be where the WSJ lands. T...

This ignores the reality that depositors lack the skills, information, and resources to properly evaluate the creditworthiness of banks. It also ignores the reality that a nationwide bank run on all regional and mid sized banks was likely. Investing the customer deposits wisely is the obligation of the shareholders bondholders and bank management. They will face the consequences (complete wipeout). Punishing depositors accomplishes nothing except the perverse counterproductive effect of concentration in too big to fail which actually leads to the exact consequences you are seeking to avoid. +1 There is conjecture that uninsured depositors will be made whole because the bank has sufficient assets to pay them. And some bond holders might get...

At 12/31/2023, SVB had total assets of $211 billion. Liabilities and stockholders equity were of course the same. Deposits totaled $173 billion. That's $211 billion of assets to cover $173 billion of deposits (equity and other debt come after depositors). The assets could decline in value by 18% and still cover the deposits. That doesn't seem plausible given the nature of the assets, but perhaps someone has better information. If this is correct, the FDIC is not going to need to make a sizeable special assessment. We shall see. They could have said Asset > Liability, so we are all good. But they didn't, they said they will guarantee, hence moral hazard... Or did they run the numbers, saw that asset > liability and said “we can guarantee at...

elderwise wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:50 pm

trirunner wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:48 pm

jebmke wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:47 pm

trirunner wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:45 pm

jebmke wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:39 pm

I believe in resolutions they have a special FDIC assessment on banks to fund any shortfall borne by FDIC. Essentially an industry "bailout" to the extent the wind-down results in losses.

It's basically a bailout, the industry will pass the cost down to average customers. so average Americans will pay to make VC whole.

Isn't that true with all insurance?

I did not sign up to pay to insure > $250k for VCs.

Exactly, when I pay for my car or homeowners insurance I am protecting MY asset.

Not my neighbors.

Your neighbor’s house is on fire and you live downwind. And there’s a strong wind a blowin’.

That is 7.5%, so if you think of 2022 where inflation was running 7-9% for a period of time, plus any fixed coupon rate, it makes sense.

b4nash wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:19 am

QuiGonJohn wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 11:03 am Well if that's the case, then the numbers they are basing the calculations on are "fabricated" to tell a different story. Inflation is still bad. Just shopped, 16oz bottle of Kraft Salad Dressing, that was $2.52 before Jan 2021, now was $5.99. Many other items similar story.

Kraft salad dressing is $2.98 right now at my Walmart. $1.97 for the store brand.

Ken’s Steakhouse varieties $1.99 at Kroger if you buy 5 items in the promo group. Usually $3.99; $2.98 everyday at Walmart. I saw Kraft salad dressing for $1.99 a few weeks ago at Kroger under a similar promo.

I see so many people just pay full price for grocery items when you can shop around and/or use coupons and sales to save a lot of money.

I am not saying they are unattractive to people that understand how they work, but I think many new people bought them thinking they were getting an interest rate of 9.62% or 6.89% when they were really only getting a fixed rate of 0% or 0.4% plus a fleeting inflation adjustment. So now that money markets and CDs are available for 4.5%, 5% or higher, I think people will be less inclined to stick with iBonds unless the fixed rate comes in quite a bit higher. I am not disillusioned with iBonds because they don't stay at the 9.62% I started with. Rather I am disappointed because, DESPITE the FED continually raising interest rates, Treasury lowered the rate on iBonds once, in Nov, and now pundits say they will do so going into May. To me, what...

whodidntante wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 8:43 pm

smooth_rough wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 10:50 am What is schwabs exposure to long bonds?

Some data here:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/458662 ... g-cautious

Some commentary from me:
They are not especially vulnerable under "normal" conditions. In a panic environment, sure. Schwab could be forced to liquidate holdings and could fail.

Schwab’s holdings don’t include any stocks, bonds or mutual funds held in customer accounts in their brokerage arm, however. Schwab is just the trustee holding those assets on behalf of their customers. The customers own those assets, not Schwab.

If Schwab were to fail, those would remain and be moved to another brokerage as part of a reorganization.

My question is why did people all of the sudden need to rush to get money out. Do they have a liquidity problem? On a day to day bases people should not need all the money. This are not individual account holders. This are business owners who need to do payrolls and pay bills asap. So the bank did not have enough to satisfy normal operations of clients or they didn't have enough to cover a panic? What I can gather it started from a big investor telling people to pull money out. No sure why we are pussyfooting around on naming the "big investor." Although there may have been more than one. Bloomberg reported on Thursday, 3/9/2023 that Founders Fund, the venture capital fund co-founded by Peter Thiel, has advised companies to pull ...