Search found 870 matches

by Cyclesafe
Sun Aug 18, 2019 7:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: At the cross roads, looking for wisdom & advice
Replies: 6
Views: 1071

Re: At the cross roads, looking for wisdom & advice

Figure roughly $12k/year for medical insurance (HDHP Bronze PPO) with $10k deductible. Call local providers for actual quotes.
by Cyclesafe
Sun Aug 18, 2019 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Invest or pay off student loans?
Replies: 37
Views: 1355

Re: Invest or pay off student loans?

Life tends to muck up the best of plans. Set yourself free(er) and retire the loans. You have plenty of years to build wealth.
by Cyclesafe
Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Replicate Total Bond Market to allow CA tax exemption
Replies: 9
Views: 555

Re: Replicate Total Bond Market to allow CA tax exemption

Sounds like this is the consensus. I had looked at something like: 30% Total Corporate Bond (VTC) 20% Short-Term Treasury (VGSH) **96% CA exempt in 2018 20% Intermediate-Term Treasury (VGIT) **94% CA exempt 10% Long-Term Treasury (VGLT) **97% CA exempt 20% Mortgage-Backed Securities (VMBS) This got...
by Cyclesafe
Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Minimal Cash and Bonds in Portfolio
Replies: 22
Views: 2003

Re: Minimal Cash and Bonds in Portfolio

First, I am me and you are you. For me, I would not assume that I would be able to remain working until age 71-72. Health is one uncertainty, but also unless you work for yourself, your continued employment may not be strictly up to you. There is a real bias against seniors in the workplace. Again, ...
by Cyclesafe
Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial planning tools - MaxiFi, Fire Calc, etc?
Replies: 33
Views: 2206

Re: Financial planning tools - MaxiFi, Fire Calc, etc?

IMHO, it's better to get good with Excel and build one's own spreadsheet. The algorithms used in canned programs are not accessible, so one never knows if their output truely reflects one's assumptions or even current conditions. Building one's own model provides a certainty that output reflects exa...
by Cyclesafe
Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Keep VWIUX (muni bonds) or switch to VBLTX (total bond)?
Replies: 14
Views: 1495

Re: Keep VWIUX (muni bonds) or switch to VBLTX (total bond)?

Confirm that you aren't also paying the 3.8% NIIT for federal income over $250k (MFJ). Use of VWIUX (or VCADX) rather than VTBLX in taxable better keeps you below this NIIT threshold, which, BTW, was enacted to NOT increase with inflation. Your respective numbers for VWIUX and VTBLX with the NIIT ar...
by Cyclesafe
Thu Aug 15, 2019 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 4370

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

I do know that chart, but also thought I saw something similar with leverage showing about a 140% sweet spot. I can't be certain. Still,.I have wondered what "risk adjusted return" really means... Clearly 100/0 will give you a larger expected return than 80/20 (or 0/100)! Over the long run. So, how...
by Cyclesafe
Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should long-term investors ignore interim bond fund value changes when calculating asset allocations?
Replies: 10
Views: 774

Re: Should long-term investors ignore interim bond fund value changes when calculating asset allocations?

I'm not going to ignore it. For me, 8% movement in bonds is not going to trigger rebalancing any ways. So maybe it is immaterial if I ignore it or not. In the accumalation phase, I add money where it needs to go to maintain my AA to maintain my risk. I really do not know where bond fund prices will...
by Cyclesafe
Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still losing to inflation
Replies: 35
Views: 2811

Re: Still losing to inflation

Perhaps one way to wean yourself away from your quite natural anxieties about investing is to take a hypothetical $100,000 and "invest it" properly in a lump sum. Try to convince yourself that this is actually your money. Follow your investment every day and analyze your feelings as your total orig...
by Cyclesafe
Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still losing to inflation
Replies: 35
Views: 2811

Re: Still losing to inflation

Perhaps one way to wean yourself away from your quite natural anxieties about investing is to take a hypothetical $100,000 and "invest it" properly in a lump sum. Try to convince yourself that this is actually your money. Follow your investment every day and analyze your feelings as your total origi...
by Cyclesafe
Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should long-term investors ignore interim bond fund value changes when calculating asset allocations?
Replies: 10
Views: 774

Should long-term investors ignore interim bond fund value changes when calculating asset allocations?

VBTLX, for example, has increased 8% YTD due to recently higher relative demand and lower interest rates. If the former were assumed over the 6 year duration of the fund to eventually be normalized - and thus increasingly ignorable - and if the effect of changes in interest rates are gradually neutr...
by Cyclesafe
Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Domestic returns next 10 years
Replies: 45
Views: 2937

Re: Domestic returns next 10 years

For bracketing purposes, run real returns for equity from -5% all the way to +5%, and re-discover the overarching importance of savings and investment. One has no ability to predict or influence actual returns. FWIW, I'm assuming real domestic equity returns of 2%, real international equity returns ...
by Cyclesafe
Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Interest rates low: leverage up?
Replies: 63
Views: 4370

Re: Interest rates low: leverage up?

If one is supercharging market timing with leverage, why would one want to do this when equity markets are close to all-time highs? Just because it is cheap to do so? I sincerely hope you reconsider.
by Cyclesafe
Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: asset allocation with debt paydown instead of bond investment
Replies: 15
Views: 780

Re: asset allocation with debt paydown instead of bond investment

In my view, a 3.75% "risk-free" return trumps whatever the bond market currently offers (assuming no deductibility of mortgage interest, full funding of matched retirement accounts, full funding of Roth, and an adequate emergency fund / cash flow). What's much more important than your asset allocati...
by Cyclesafe
Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AA across different accounts
Replies: 5
Views: 315

Re: AA across different accounts

Your plan seems fine, except you might consider pegging your 401k assets (as well as any other tax deferred account) at x% of market value, where x is the approximate retirement after tax percentage of the account's value. Otherwise, the value of the 401k will be over-weighted in your total asset a...
by Cyclesafe
Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AA across different accounts
Replies: 5
Views: 315

Re: AA across different accounts

No. What matters is whether your entire portfolio reflects your intended asset allocation. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Asset_allocation_in_multiple_accounts However, your placement of VBTLX (duration 6.0) in taxable would be of (slight) concern for higher earning investors. Consider VWLUX (durat...
by Cyclesafe
Mon Aug 12, 2019 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are 34 of 37 Vanguard Bond funds showing no price change today
Replies: 5
Views: 724

Re: Why are 34 of 37 Vanguard Bond funds showing no price change today

I'm seeing some changes now. Probably related to the glitch currently being discussed here: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=288008
by Cyclesafe
Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The One-Fund Portfolio as a default suggestion
Replies: 63
Views: 5739

Re: The One-Fund Portfolio as a default suggestion

The Wiki advocates non-muni bonds in tax deferred and index equity in taxable, when actually, for reasons stated by the OP, investors subject to the NIIT and state full income taxes on all investment income should instead place muni's in taxable and equity in tax deferred. (Particularly at present l...
by Cyclesafe
Mon Aug 12, 2019 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Student loan debt vs. VTSAX
Replies: 37
Views: 2503

Re: Student loan debt vs. VTSAX

No matter what a spreadsheet might indicate, it is driven by probabilities. Do you really want to be that guy who lost his chance to get out from under his student loan because he was greedy? I wouldn't even hesitate. The interest burden of the loan is a certainly, the return from VTSAX is not. No ...
by Cyclesafe
Sun Aug 11, 2019 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Income stream for 10 years
Replies: 32
Views: 3416

Re: Income stream for 10 years

Suggest a 10 year ladder of $2000 bank (not broker) CD's. Simple, and might mostly keep up with inflation. I think a 10 year fixed term annuity will be expensive and inflexible.
by Cyclesafe
Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I'm 31, and 95% stocks. Given economy indicators, would moving 20-30% to BND be "timing"?
Replies: 67
Views: 6174

Re: I'm 31, and 95% stocks. Given economy indicators, would moving 20-30% to BND be "timing"?

A parallel way to asset allocation to get at risk tolerance is to consider how many times your expected expenses (including increases to family and associated obligations) and expected capital investments (like car, house, etc.) are covered by appropriate-duration fixed investments. If you were to l...
by Cyclesafe
Sat Aug 10, 2019 10:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Student loan debt vs. VTSAX
Replies: 37
Views: 2503

Re: Student loan debt vs. VTSAX

No matter what a spreadsheet might indicate, it is driven by probabilities. Do you really want to be that guy who lost his chance to get out from under his student loan because he was greedy? I wouldn't even hesitate. The interest burden of the loan is a certainly, the return from VTSAX is not.
by Cyclesafe
Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Critique my exercise routine because it's not working for me
Replies: 160
Views: 8702

Re: Critique my exercise routine because it's not working for me

Lots of good stuff above. Exercise and diet must be fully integrated into one's life. In fact, one should not need to either make a special effort to exercise or to diet. One's overall energy output and overall energy input must balance to maintain weight: to reduce or gain weight, one must increase...
by Cyclesafe
Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is "termite-proofing" your house (absent termites) an unnecessary form of insurance?
Replies: 15
Views: 1165

Re: Is "termite-proofing" your house (absent termites) an unnecessary form of insurance?

Termidor is the foundation treatment these days, and very effective if not too effective (on other bugs/bees/etc) so I do not know if the that reduces future needs. I know they say the Termidor tends to be bad for future business, because it is so good. But termites are a problem so you have to be ...
by Cyclesafe
Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Location - Tax Efficiency
Replies: 6
Views: 536

Re: Asset Location - Tax Efficiency

Recent thread: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=286161

The Wiki is wishy washy because there is no one answer for everyone. Oh, and IMHO, it matters a lot.
by Cyclesafe
Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is "termite-proofing" your house (absent termites) an unnecessary form of insurance?
Replies: 15
Views: 1165

Re: Is "termite-proofing" your house (absent termites) an unnecessary form of insurance?

Termidor is the foundation treatment these days, and very effective if not too effective (on other bugs/bees/etc) so I do not know if the that reduces future needs. I know they say the Termidor tends to be bad for future business, because it is so good. But termites are a problem so you have to be ...
by Cyclesafe
Tue Aug 06, 2019 8:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Worth it to upgrade to Main Cabin Extra?
Replies: 76
Views: 3806

Re: Worth it to upgrade to Premium Economy?

My wife and I always try to get premium economy, but we are both over 6' tall. At 5'2" we probably wouldn't bother.
by Cyclesafe
Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Increase in Income...do I need a "tax guy"?
Replies: 12
Views: 1225

Re: Increase in Income...do I need a "tax guy"?

TurboTax is the way to go. Use your 2019 software to model your new situation. You'll learn a lot and soon realize that since you have your own best interests at heart you'll be able to make decisions during the year that optimize your taxes paid - all for free.
by Cyclesafe
Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Future LTCG and Safe Withdrawal Rate
Replies: 21
Views: 995

Re: Future LTCG and Safe Withdrawal Rate

This forum does not allow speculation regarding future laws. For good reasons. In the past, there has been no tax preferences for LTCG and history shows a wide range of various preferences. Future rates will likely be different.... Anyway, age 28 is an excellent time to start a retirement investment...
by Cyclesafe
Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial anxiety and next steps in relationship
Replies: 102
Views: 7262

Re: Financial anxiety and next steps in relationship

Crickets from the OP.

Wish I had that 10 minutes back.
by Cyclesafe
Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial anxiety and next steps in relationship
Replies: 102
Views: 7262

Re: Financial anxiety and next steps in relationship

My post was censored. I respect the rules and believe that posting here is a privilege. I am NOT the arbitrator of what is acceptable and not. So if I may restate my point in a more indirect manner..... OP's girlfriend has gotten him into a serious jam. He feels anxiety that he is being forced into ...
by Cyclesafe
Sun Aug 04, 2019 5:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial anxiety and next steps in relationship
Replies: 102
Views: 7262

Re: Financial anxiety and next steps in relationship

Your business. But you're committing financial hara-kiri here. Together, the present combination of your finances is awful, but you're also planning an imminent purchase of a house and immediately having children. There is absolutely no positive financial spin to put on this. [OT comments removed by...
by Cyclesafe
Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clements, HumbleDollar, viewing Vanguard with unease: "Whither Vanguard?"
Replies: 54
Views: 7391

Re: Clements, HumbleDollar, viewing Vanguard with unease: "Whither Vanguard?"

Last year DW and I attended a Vanguard function at a local hotel. We had a niggling feeling that we had been invited by mistake, because upon admittance we were heralded with a sort-of admonition that "this year because of the market, many more people qualified for an invitation". And although our r...
by Cyclesafe
Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fun With Numbers—Why details count!!
Replies: 14
Views: 1711

Re: Fun With Numbers—Why details count!!

That allows me to tweak inflation, growth rates for each of my funds, inflation rate How are you predicting this going forward? What is your confidence range in predicting these variables? Doesn't a small change there has humongous impact at the end of the decade? Don't get me wrong; it is certainl...
by Cyclesafe
Tue Jul 30, 2019 9:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fun With Numbers—Why details count!!
Replies: 14
Views: 1711

Re: Fun With Numbers—Why details count!!

It's the proverbial "squeeze the balloon". Only that if you squeeze one aspect of your investment you just can't assume that it will just expand somewhere else. It may contract. And in ways that you haven't dreamed of. In an ideal world, everyone would have their own personal spreadsheet. I have one...
by Cyclesafe
Sun Jul 28, 2019 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wharton Paper—Preparing for retirement
Replies: 8
Views: 1693

Re: Wharton Paper—Preparing for retirement

I think the author might consider a series of SPIA's to be "laddered" and a series of SPIA's and DIA's to be "staggered". In any event, when I run the numbers in any series of either, using current returns from immediateanuities.com and account for the 2.35% state premium tax Cali takes off the top ...
by Cyclesafe
Sun Jul 28, 2019 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Switch to munis?
Replies: 23
Views: 2473

Re: Switch to munis?

With my assumptions, a high bracket individual such as the OP should have muni's in taxable, non-muni fixed in tax deferred, and equity in tax deferred. The latter deviation from the "rule of thumb" is due to the very high incremental tax (tax drag) this individual would otherwise be paying on qual...
by Cyclesafe
Sun Jul 28, 2019 4:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Switch to munis?
Replies: 23
Views: 2473

Re: Switch to munis?

There's been recent discussion about this. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=286161 A battle of the spreadsheets is useless without reconciling all the different assumptions underlying each model. OP, you need to work the numbers out for yourself. The internets just don't have tim...
by Cyclesafe
Sun Jul 28, 2019 3:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buenos Aires - How many days?
Replies: 33
Views: 2675

Re: Buenos Aires - How many days?

Exchange $100 bills on the "blue" markets (newspaper kiosks) all along Avenue Florida. If you are not converting at the official (bloated) rate everything is reasonably priced. This advice is outdated. You can exchange dollars anywhere now at a reasonable rate. Avoid exchanging in the street or you...
by Cyclesafe
Mon Jul 22, 2019 6:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Accounts that take foreign currency (London Oyster card refund)?
Replies: 6
Views: 441

Re: Accounts that take foreign currency (London Oyster card refund)?

It took over three years for us to get our Oyster card refund. And we have been back twice since! We got the full run around treatment.

Ultimately we used the SWIFT transfer system and we got the full amount into our US bank. Lesson learned: never put too much on an Oyster card.
by Cyclesafe
Mon Jul 22, 2019 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable vs. Tax Deferred Fundamental Concept
Replies: 21
Views: 2013

Re: Taxable vs. Tax Deferred Fundamental Concept

Question: Should I use my "effective tax rate" or "marginal tax rate" when comparing the Tax hit on Tax-deferred withdrawals vs. Taxable 15% LTCG rate withdrawals? Effective Tax Rate: 17% Marginal Tax Rate: 24% vs. LTCG Tax Rate: 15% An oft not asked question and IMHO a very important one. Marginal...
by Cyclesafe
Sun Jul 21, 2019 5:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buenos Aires - How many days?
Replies: 33
Views: 2675

Re: Buenos Aires - How many days?

We enjoyed the tango social clubs - not the tourist traps, but the clubs real people actually go to. Learn a little tango before you go and the people there will be very happy to help you with your moves. Also just walking around BA is pretty interesting. Exchange $100 bills on the "blue" markets (n...
by Cyclesafe
Sun Jul 21, 2019 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strength training is like investment
Replies: 46
Views: 3542

Re: Strength training is like investment

OP, I never put these two together. Thank you for posting! I've kept my weight down and maintained my fitness/appearance/health simply by limiting carbs, limiting portions, daily 15 minute circuit training on a home weight machine, and daily one hour runs. I deviate from the "diet" when tempted and ...
by Cyclesafe
Sun Jul 21, 2019 9:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MBA worth it?
Replies: 93
Views: 7070

Re: MBA worth it?

At age 26 this chemistry major got an MBA from a reasonable school (USC), quit a sales job at one chemical company, to move to another much more successful chemical company but also in a sales capacity. Within 4 years, however, I was in product/brand management, and within 12 years was an executive....
by Cyclesafe
Sun Jul 21, 2019 8:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable vs. Tax Deferred Fundamental Concept
Replies: 21
Views: 2013

Re: Taxable vs. Tax Deferred Fundamental Concept

For completeness sake it bears mentioning that only in taxable can one TLH or pass on a stepped-up legacy. Particularly the latter may trump. Run the numbers.

Shout out to Rick Ferri!
by Cyclesafe
Sat Jul 20, 2019 11:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable vs. Tax Deferred Fundamental Concept
Replies: 21
Views: 2013

Re: Taxable vs. Tax Deferred Fundamental Concept

At my marginal income tax rate of 24%+3.8%(NIIT)+9.3%(Cali) and my QDI/LTCG rate of 15%+3.8%+9.3%, it is always better (for me) to hold equity in tax advantaged. For this conclusion, I assume 4% total annual growth with 2% (half) QDI/realized LTCG. Even if one's marginal rate were 22%, QDI/LTCG rate...
by Cyclesafe
Sat Jul 20, 2019 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forex Trading
Replies: 21
Views: 1199

Re: Forex Trading

No offense, seriously. There's smart money and dumb money.

A partial forex play is non-hedged foreign investments.
by Cyclesafe
Fri Jul 19, 2019 9:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Variable Annuity Question
Replies: 8
Views: 538

Re: Variable Annuity Question

Call Vanguard's annuity desk https://investor.vanguard.com/annuity/. Since they will be moving administration to Transamerica towards the end of 2020, you might also want to consider Fidelity https://www.fidelity.com/annuities/overview?imm_pid=700000001009653&immid=100662&imm_eid=ep36546974302&msclk...
by Cyclesafe
Wed Jul 17, 2019 2:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond fund versus individual bonds
Replies: 39
Views: 1884

Re: Bond fund versus individual bonds

I do not understand the advantage of bond funds over individual bonds besides ease of use. Liquidity is an important advantage of a bond fund. Another is diversification. A disadvantage of a fund is that there are fees. Individual bonds have a guaranteed yield (I think) and you get your money back ...