Search found 1609 matches

by gmaynardkrebs
Tue May 21, 2019 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lies, Damned Lies, And Index Funds
Replies: 43
Views: 5487

Re: Lies, Damned Lies, And Index Funds

I will only invest in Index Funds, so long as they continue to include my desired asset classes. However, how often have we been told the story that active loses to Indexing, only to find that the author uses the best performing broad indices (i.e. S&P, or even Nasdaq), or that they only look at US...
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue May 21, 2019 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lies, Damned Lies, And Index Funds
Replies: 43
Views: 5487

Re: Lies, Damned Lies, And Index Funds

I don't find this parabolic rise of SPX argument to be convincing at all. Stocks have risen for 100 years, interest rates have fallen from 9% to 3% over the past 20-30 years, and other forces, like corporate buybacks, have also increased. I do not see why you would single out 401k contributions as ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue May 21, 2019 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lies, Damned Lies, And Index Funds
Replies: 43
Views: 5487

Re: Lies, Damned Lies, And Index Funds

but only if I thought the active folks were starting to beat the indexes consistently. Not possible. Active investing is a zero sum game... in order for an active fund to beat the market, another active fund must trail the market. The active funds, on average, will trail the market by their higher ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue May 21, 2019 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lies, Damned Lies, And Index Funds
Replies: 43
Views: 5487

Re: Lies, Damned Lies, And Index Funds

The two most indexed markets are S&P 500 and NASDAQ. They attract a huge amount of 401k monthly inflows, and both are arguably at or near in bubble territory. Indexing is not the problem, it’s indexing in these two markets combined with literally thoughtless 401k contributions that are creating a v...
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue May 21, 2019 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lies, Damned Lies, And Index Funds
Replies: 43
Views: 5487

Re: Lies, Damned Lies, And Index Funds

I don't find this parabolic rise of SPX argument to be convincing at all. Stocks have risen for 100 years, interest rates have fallen from 9% to 3% over the past 20-30 years, and other forces, like corporate buybacks, have also increased. I do not see why you would single out 401k contributions as ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue May 21, 2019 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lies, Damned Lies, And Index Funds
Replies: 43
Views: 5487

Re: Lies, Damned Lies, And Index Funds

The two most indexed markets are S&P 500 and NASDAQ. They attract a huge amount of 401k monthly inflows, and both are arguably at or near in bubble territory. Indexing is not the problem, it’s indexing in these two markets combined with literally thoughtless 401k contributions that are creating a v...
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue May 21, 2019 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lies, Damned Lies, And Index Funds
Replies: 43
Views: 5487

Re: Lies, Damned Lies, And Index Funds

The two most indexed markets are S&P 500 and NASDAQ. They attract a huge amount of 401k monthly inflows, and both are arguably at or near in bubble territory. Indexing is not the problem, it’s indexing in these two markets combined with literally thoughtless 401k contributions that are creating a ve...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu May 16, 2019 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10300

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

On a related note, many are quick to dismiss something like the Great Depression ever occurring again. While I tend to be an optimistic person, and I'm certainly an aggressive investor, I cannot see how people are so quick to dismiss the mere possibility of such an event. Depending on one's age, th...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu May 16, 2019 7:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10300

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

On a related note, many are quick to dismiss something like the Great Depression ever occurring again. While I tend to be an optimistic person, and I'm certainly an aggressive investor, I cannot see how people are so quick to dismiss the mere possibility of such an event. Depending on one's age, th...
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed May 15, 2019 8:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10300

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

I'm guessing the market has gone down lately? I don't bother checking, but I can always get a good idea based on the most recent threads (for example, "100% stocks" threads when the market is doing really well). Anyway, which is the greater risk?: The risk that a 60 year old, entering retirement, e...
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed May 15, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10300

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

this can't happen without some serious societal mayhem.. for example government pensions would go bankrupt and it would even mean total economic collapse, no productive output in the economy for decades?... I don't plan for it since to me it's too miniscule of a possibility to even consider. Not at...
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed May 15, 2019 9:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10300

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

this can't happen without some serious societal mayhem.. for example government pensions would go bankrupt and it would even mean total economic collapse, no productive output in the economy for decades?... I don't plan for it since to me it's too miniscule of a possibility to even consider. Not at...
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed May 15, 2019 8:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10300

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

this can't happen without some serious societal mayhem.. for example government pensions would go bankrupt and it would even mean total economic collapse, no productive output in the economy for decades?... I don't plan for it since to me it's too miniscule of a possibility to even consider. Not at...
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue May 14, 2019 12:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10300

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

Question for those who answered yes to the OP's question, ie that their retirement plan will work even if stocks returns are flat, almost flat, or in decline for decades. What is percentage of your income are you saving every year (including taxable and IRA.401K/TSP/403)? Also, what's your age and w...
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon May 13, 2019 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10843
Views: 1892236

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

A December type dip is always possible. Heck, another Great Depression where it takes a decade to get your money back is always possible. Even a Japan scenario where you never get your money back is possible. You should always be in a position where your tummy can handle a crash. Because it could h...
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon May 13, 2019 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10843
Views: 1892236

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

If the market is only down 2.4% on so much bad news, I see that as a good sign, It only has begun. Perhaps more tomorrow. I need more decline in order for me to Tax Loss Harvest. KlangFool Part of me hopes it will go down more so I can buy the dip. gmaynardkrebs, With my Wellington fund, it is auto...
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon May 13, 2019 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10843
Views: 1892236

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

KlangFool wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 3:56 pm
gmaynardkrebs wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 3:37 pm
If the market is only down 2.4% on so much bad news, I see that as a good sign,
It only has begun. Perhaps more tomorrow. I need more decline in order for me to Tax Loss Harvest.

KlangFool
Part of me hopes it will go down more so I can buy the dip.
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon May 13, 2019 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10843
Views: 1892236

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

If the market is only down 2.4% on so much bad news, I see that as a good sign,
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon May 13, 2019 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe & Kitces recommend government bonds, Vanguard aggregated bonds. What's better?
Replies: 19
Views: 1714

Re: Swedroe & Kitces recommend government bonds, Vanguard aggregated bonds. What's better?

vineviz wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 6:47 am
Kitces and Swedroe are writing for an audience that is different from what I suspect the "average" Vanguard investor represents.
Swedroe? He's super-respected (and followed) at BH IMHO.
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed May 08, 2019 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: point of maximal pessimism for international investing
Replies: 66
Views: 5343

Re: point of maximal pessimism for international investing

I'm for 100% USA. In fact, I refuse to hold index funds because I've recently learned that many US firms actually do business in non-USA countries, depressing returns. This shocking fact has led me to craft a pure "America First" portfolio. I only purchase USA based companies that refuse to do busi...
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue May 07, 2019 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is volatility good or bad?
Replies: 27
Views: 1266

Re: Is volatility good or bad?

Is volatility good or bad? I ask because I think of it as providing opportunity to buy stocks that have been irrationally discounted at lower levels but I don't get the sense this is common view. You have that backwards. It is the common view, but it is wrong, because such a view assumes that stock...
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue May 07, 2019 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is volatility good or bad?
Replies: 27
Views: 1266

Re: Is volatility good or bad?

Is volatility good or bad? I ask because I think of it as providing opportunity to buy stocks that have been irrationally discounted at lower levels but I don't get the sense this is common view. You have that backwards. It is the common view, but it is wrong, because such a view assumes that stock...
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue May 07, 2019 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Latest GMO Letter from Ben Inker
Replies: 0
Views: 267

Latest GMO Letter from Ben Inker

This strikes me as very smart, and also very Boglehead. Not the usual from GMO (albeit, my favorite skeptics). https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/1q-2019-gmo-quarterly-letter/ Stop Worrying About Your Portfolio: It’s only one piece of the puzzle Investors have a tendency to obsess about t...
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon May 06, 2019 10:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy -- Thoughts?
Replies: 10
Views: 1138

Re: Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy -- Thoughts?

Your inflation protection seems to be stocks primarily, with some short bonds. Stocks are not good inflation protection short term, which I understand is your concern until SS starts. Neither are short bonds right now, as real rates are being suppressed by the Fed as a policy tool. Consider TIPS or ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon May 06, 2019 9:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Boglehead investing through a major downturn
Replies: 36
Views: 3659

Re: Boglehead investing through a major downturn

I just kept telling myself that the shares I was buying at (what was hopefully) the bottom of the trough were the ones that were going to make me the most money when things turned around. It wasn't easy. My take-home pay took a number of hits, first through unpaid furloughs and then in some pretty ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun May 05, 2019 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversifying beyond stock and bonds
Replies: 19
Views: 1606

Re: Diversifying beyond stock and bonds

SPIA's, single or laddered. R/E income property. Treasuries, Muni's, CD's, etc, etc. Paying off interest bearing debt. . . . . what are the alternatives? The alternatives include factor investing, non-directional sources of return, and other less-correlated investments, such as TIPS (TIPS did not w...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun May 05, 2019 2:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Boglehead investing through a major downturn
Replies: 36
Views: 3659

Re: Boglehead investing through a major downturn

In general, most people realized they weren't as risk tolerant as they thought. Now that everyone thinks the Fed is likely to bail out the stock market anyway, the problem has only gotten worse. It's pretty easy to say that you are risk tolerant when you don't think there's much risk in the first pl...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun May 05, 2019 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversifying beyond stock and bonds
Replies: 19
Views: 1606

Re: Diversifying beyond stock and bonds

We also own the home we live in. That does not mean buying is superior to renting but that how one obtains income to support needs is already more diversified if you own the home than if you rent and raise the money to pay the rent by owning more in stocks and bonds. If you lose your job, what are ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun May 05, 2019 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversifying beyond stock and bonds
Replies: 19
Views: 1606

Re: Diversifying beyond stock and bonds

I’ve seen many diversifiers discussed here over the years such as commodity futures funds, qspix, metals, but seems like they all peter out. Not sure why stocks, bonds and cash are not enough? Because bonds and stocks now tend to move in the same direction. Cash is uncorrelated, but pays very littl...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun May 05, 2019 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets
Replies: 44
Views: 2389

Re: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets

I don't think we're in a bubble yet. CAPE for USA is about 30, maybe 25 after correcting for buybacks, accounting changes etc. I might start worrying when cape is over 50 :P . At the high of the dot com bubble it was about 45. Not a bubble, but valuations are stretched. Bubbles are not the only way...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun May 05, 2019 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets
Replies: 44
Views: 2389

Re: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets

If you're going to time the market, have the courage of your convictions. Don't just stop buying, sell everything (at least in tax-advantaged) and wait for your magic signal to get back in. Of course, there's always the chance that, like many times before, the market will never be lower than now in...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun May 05, 2019 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets
Replies: 44
Views: 2389

Re: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets

Are there any other longtime dollar cost average buyers questioning putting their biweekly savings into such a highly valued market where both stocks and bonds seem to have nothing but downside risk? If so, what's your plan? I could see stocks collapsing by 50% or more, but not investment grade bon...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat May 04, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 902
Views: 86889

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

In order to keep my interest at 80 years of age, I have an allocation of 75% equities and 25% in bonds. I reached critical mass many years ago with a higher percentage in equities than at present. My reasoning is that my portfolio is over 5 million....$500,000 in annual income (pension(s) , SS and ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat May 04, 2019 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets
Replies: 44
Views: 2389

Re: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets

Are there any other longtime dollar cost average buyers questioning putting their biweekly savings into such a highly valued market where both stocks and bonds seem to have nothing but downside risk? If so, what's your plan? I could see stocks collapsing by 50% or more, but not investment grade bon...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat May 04, 2019 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets
Replies: 44
Views: 2389

Re: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets

mbasherp wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 11:56 am
I’m perfectly comfortable with volatility on the way to achieving superior long term results. I
Everybody is comfortable with volatility on the way to superior returns. On the way to inferior returns, not so much.
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat May 04, 2019 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 902
Views: 86889

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Yep, me too. Locked in some more gains. Since you're 50/50, are you rebalancing pretty frequently? He re-balances every time he posts. Even if you turn out to be right, and the market crashes 90% this year, I've already locked in a good chunk of the gains over the past 10 years (of course, if I had...
by gmaynardkrebs
Fri May 03, 2019 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 902
Views: 86889

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

AerialWombat wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 2:54 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 2:50 pm
Yep, me too. Locked in some more gains.
Since you're 50/50, are you rebalancing pretty frequently?
He re-balances every time he posts.
by gmaynardkrebs
Fri May 03, 2019 10:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: In this case, should I be 100% stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6198

Re: In this case, should I be 100% stocks?

@ CyclingDuo
All good advice in theory, but as a practical matter, 2008 made it abundantly clear that (1) a priori estimates of your personal risk tolerance are highly inacurate (2) most people underestimate how much risk they are actually taking with equities.
by gmaynardkrebs
Fri May 03, 2019 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: In this case, should I be 100% stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6198

Re: In this case, should I be 100% stocks?

People sold all the way down. Check the forum posts from September 2008 onwards; some people sold in September, some in October, and some held on and finally gave up in February 2009. Meanwhile, those who had their risk tolerance set correctly bought more stock by rebalancing in October 2008 or Feb...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu May 02, 2019 9:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: In this case, should I be 100% stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6198

Re: In this case, should I be 100% stocks?

People sold all the way down. Check the forum posts from September 2008 onwards; some people sold in September, some in October, and some held on and finally gave up in February 2009. Meanwhile, those who had their risk tolerance set correctly bought more stock by rebalancing in October 2008 or Feb...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu May 02, 2019 6:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: In this case, should I be 100% stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6198

Re: In this case, should I be 100% stocks?

I might be offered a job working at the VA Hospital as a physical therapist. This would drastically change my current retirement situation because I am now using a 401k and Roth IRA with the average of my wife's and my age as the percentage we put into bonds. My wife works a couple days a week but ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu May 02, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: In this case, should I be 100% stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6198

Re: In this case, should I be 100% stocks?

I truly believe we won't hit a nightmare scenario (markets go to 0) and if we do, there's more important things to worry about than my retirement. I'm not convinced that we wouldn't have another 2008 or 1929 but we probably have enough to get by until things recovered in either scenario up until we...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu May 02, 2019 10:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: In this case, should I be 100% stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6198

Re: In this case, should I be 100% stocks?

Just speculating, but US stocks might be even better if we lost WW2. Because, instead of Germany and Japan, the US might have a cap on military spending and would have spent the money on infrastructure for the next 60 years. +1000 Yeah, except it would have been German infrastructure. The Hitler Pl...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu May 02, 2019 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: In this case, should I be 100% stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6198

Re: In this case, should I be 100% stocks?

I might be offered a job working at the VA Hospital as a physical therapist. This would drastically change my current retirement situation because I am now using a 401k and Roth IRA with the average of my wife's and my age as the percentage we put into bonds. My wife works a couple days a week but ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu May 02, 2019 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Believe 10 Years Return Data Is Just Noise?
Replies: 57
Views: 3192

Re: Do You Believe 10 Years Return Data Is Just Noise?

If have invested billions in machine learning and have a track record similar to Renaissance Technologies, then past data certainly seems useful to you. In that case, why are you posting here? If not, past performance may well not be a very useful predictor for you. I'm going to guess most people w...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu May 02, 2019 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Believe 10 Years Return Data Is Just Noise?
Replies: 57
Views: 3192

Re: Do You Believe 10 Years Return Data Is Just Noise?

Just look at the dispersion of returns from a total stock market portfolio. The dispersion is very large for short time frames and continually becomes smaller for any longer timeframe that is analyzed. Not sure I get this. Don't the tails grow fatter with longer time frames? The paradox is that "no...
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed May 01, 2019 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Believe 10 Years Return Data Is Just Noise?
Replies: 57
Views: 3192

Re: Do You Believe 10 Years Return Data Is Just Noise?

Larry Swedroe has a line he says frequently, something to the effect “for most investors 3 years is a long time, 5 years a very long time, and 10 years an eternity; but financial economists know that 10 years is just noise in the financial data” So many of us cite data looking back various amounts ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed May 01, 2019 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The market is overvalued"
Replies: 90
Views: 6995

Re: "The market is overvalued"

So does this perspective change how you are investing? It does. Aside from INTC which I really bought for fun, I'm all fixed income. I don't plan to invest in a stock index, but as and when I see value I may buy and hold individual stocks. For example, if Apple was 30% below its current price, I wo...
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed May 01, 2019 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The market is overvalued"
Replies: 90
Views: 6995

Re: "The market is overvalued"

I'm a lot older than you, and I can't remember a time when people weren't saying the market was overvalued. Barron's has been doing a "Big Money" survey twice a year since at least 2009, the latest poll being discussed at Stock Market Highs Are Making Even Bullish Money Managers Cautious, Exclusive...