Search found 887 matches

by gmaynardkrebs
Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?
Replies: 44
Views: 3653

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?

... if one is building a LMP [Liability Matching Portfolio], which is what I am doing, I think the ideal coupon is "0%", ... the bottom line is that I want my present day purchase to at least be equaled in real value at maturity. Additional coupons paid out every year complicate things. Indeed! Acc...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?
Replies: 44
Views: 3653

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?

Auction yield was 1.235% which I think is about 2.5 bps higher than where the secondary was trading just before auction. I.e. the auction”tailed” massively I.e. the market hates long term tips right now. I deployed all the spare cash I could. Wish I had bought more. grok, always interested to read ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?
Replies: 44
Views: 3653

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?

It's at 1.19% now. Even if I knew rates would never be that high again, I wouldn't be interested. There have to be better places to put your money. Even for a TIPS fan like me.
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?
Replies: 44
Views: 3653

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?

To be fair, it’s not as if bond yields have no natural level. But the natural level is I think roughly related to gdp growth. Ie I think long term real rates might be some function of long term real gdp growth. And I don’t think that level is lower than it used to be. I respectfully disagree. Aging...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun Oct 14, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?
Replies: 44
Views: 3653

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?

1.5% I start buying, 2%, I'm all in. I don't expect to see the latter for a long time, if ever.
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is EMH a tautology?
Replies: 108
Views: 4619

Re: Is EMH a tautology?

EMH is better described as reductionist rather than tautological. Information" is not a basic state in the way atoms or perhaps a quark are in physics. For example, that he market price of X reflects the "tastes" of all market participants, but what is a "taste" in the market context? "Tastes" inclu...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's bond screen problems
Replies: 8
Views: 693

Re: Vanguard's bond screen problems

bondsr4me wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:03 pm
Has VG made any recent changes to website?
I never any issues in the past.
I haven't noticed any changes. I have Win7. I have had issues on other screens with ad blockers, but not bonds.
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1552055

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The classic too much money chasing too few goods and services argument. An interesting data point related to the too much money question. At last week's BH conference, Gus Sauter gave a presentation on the Endowment model and Private Equity. (slides and video are on the forum somewhere.) A key take...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's bond screen problems
Replies: 8
Views: 693

Re: Vanguard's bond screen problems

I just tried again on my MBP and asked to see the bond/cd screen. It just gave me a blank screen. So I tried using my SP4 and the bond/cd screen loaded properly. I guess there must be an issue with the website and macOSX. I am gonna try later on to see what happens. Has it worked previously? Have y...
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1552055

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

3% of drop? It's barely a noise. Exactly. Including today, the S&P 500 is up 11.32% in the past year. Who cares what it did along the way. We would all take that 1 year return every year. It will probably be up 3%-4% tomorrow. We've seen this countless times. It will take several years of negative ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1552055

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

hdas wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:40 pm
gmaynardkrebs wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:29 pm
Given how much the market has been up, this is a non-event.
Image
My cat is selling, however. :D
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1552055

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Given how much the market has been up, this is a non-event.
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7401
Views: 1552055

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

This looks like some short covering to me. The only "news" is that stocks are going down today a lot more than usual. Personally, I don't let days like these bother me anymore.
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rolling INTO TSP? [Thrift Savings Plan]
Replies: 12
Views: 1144

Re: Rolling INTO TSP? [Thrift Savings Plan]

Can you roll over just part of a t-ira into the TSP?
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun Oct 07, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should my entire 401k be in total bond market index?
Replies: 20
Views: 2520

Re: Should my entire 401k be in total bond market index?

ElmoHongZito, I went through your older posts (quickly). You have been making steady progress since you joined us back in March (at which time you had a real mess on your hands!). Much has changed since you started and it appears you are trying to figure out how to put your portfolio together on yo...
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 60
Views: 9351

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

One thing I read once was, when markets go south, passive holders sell just like everyone else. I don't remember the article. Obviously the statement wouldn't cover many reading this here, but is there any data to tell us whether holders of SPY would generally start to sell if it tanked by 20%, and...
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Government Back Bonds or FDIC Insured accounts more at risk of Default?
Replies: 33
Views: 1760

Re: Are Government Back Bonds or FDIC Insured accounts more at risk of Default?

Are you aware that not all "US Government Bonds" are backed by the full faith and credit of the US? For example, some US agency bonds are not. Vanguard offers Treasury funds and Federal funds. The latter, while extremely safe, are not backed by the ff&c of the US. I didn't know that. I really do no...
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Government Back Bonds or FDIC Insured accounts more at risk of Default?
Replies: 33
Views: 1760

Re: Are Government Back Bonds or FDIC Insured accounts more at risk of Default?

I agree, both are very low risk. The FDIC doesn't have to cover the whole value of all insured deposits. Even when banks fail they almost always have assets. It's just that their assets aren't completely enough under US regulations to back their obligations. The FDIC only has to provide cash to the...
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon Sep 24, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Government Back Bonds or FDIC Insured accounts more at risk of Default?
Replies: 33
Views: 1760

Re: Are Government Back Bonds or FDIC Insured accounts more at risk of Default?

Are you aware that not all "US Government Bonds" are backed by the full faith and credit of the US? For example, some US agency bonds are not. Vanguard offers Treasury funds and Federal funds. The latter, while extremely safe, are not backed by the ff&c of the US.
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun Sep 23, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I-savings bonds: To do or not to do
Replies: 10
Views: 1557

Re: I-savings bonds: To do or not to do

For higher brackets, I bonds will guarantee loss of spending power over time after redemption. I don’t use them for this reason. All returns are reduced by taxation. I-Bonds and TIPS are unique because they are the only investments that guarantee no loss of purchasing power pre-tax. Stocks and othe...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun Sep 23, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I-savings bonds: To do or not to do
Replies: 10
Views: 1557

Re: I-savings bonds: To do or not to do

I'd also look at Vanguard's short term muni fund, duration is only 1.1y and paying about 1.7% federal tax free, which is extremely attractive if you are in a higher bracket. (Note: Some states tax muni income.) I think of I-Bonds as more of a long term investment that should be part of your "safe" a...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 60
Views: 9351

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

This is my first time posting. I have been following boggleheads for about a year now and have learned so much from posters on this forum. My DH is retiring in 10 months. We are trying hard to get it right. We all know a downturn is coming. None of us know when. Our portfolio is large and tied up i...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat Sep 22, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 60
Views: 9351

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

Here is a related thought: Smart Money vs Dumb Money In the classic financial planning doctrine, those 2% fee money managers and active fund managers are really, really smart because they beat the market so well. But individual schlubs like you and me are dumb. Except that is isn't really that way....
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 60
Views: 9351

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

I just pointed out that efficient prices are a higher bar than having prices alone. With the caveat that we have been discussing an implausibly extreme hypothetical scenario, remember that the full term for the thing you ar pointing out is " market efficient prices". An efficient market is merely o...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 60
Views: 9351

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

Do you understand that "price discovery" requires lots of information, and that information is the product of research? To say that one investor, or anything close to that, is sufficient is not a serious response. This is an an understandable misconception, but a misconception nonetheless. "Price d...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 60
Views: 9351

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

While you are correct in the function that active traders play in the market, the "when that happens" scenario will never happen. I think you are right, because significant mispricing opportunities would bring back active investors. I just feel that they are being trashed unfairly by some posts her...
by gmaynardkrebs
Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 60
Views: 9351

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

Major market meltdowns are pretty common. I hope to live long enough to see several severe drops. Will the drops be CAUSED by indexing? Of course not. Indexers accept what the prices are. The prices are set by the active management side. The active managers are losing investors as more and more inv...
by gmaynardkrebs
Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 60
Views: 9351

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

Major market meltdowns are pretty common. I hope to live long enough to see several severe drops. Will the drops be CAUSED by indexing? Of course not. Indexers accept what the prices are. The prices are set by the active management side. The active managers are losing investors as more and more inv...
by gmaynardkrebs
Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 60
Views: 9351

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

If that is true the number is so small that decades of academic research have failed to find them. Fama and French in the "Luck vs Skill" study concluded that there did exist a tiny number of skilled managers who did outperform the market. But they could not find a way to distinguish them from the ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?
Replies: 152
Views: 11730

Re: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?

65 old..I'm 95% in stocks and 5% cash. No SS yet. Will take SS when stock market go's down and I've used up my cash. I'll sleep well until stocks go down 20% cash is gone then I'll take SS. No bonds ever. Most people who talk like this have a fat defined benefit pension. Do you? I think he said he ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 60
Views: 9351

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

Answer: no. Next question? (At more length...I have confidence that there will be a continuing, inexhaustible supply of people who think they are smarter than the market.) Many of them actually are. If you are one of them, and manage your own investments, you'll come out ahead. Sadly, I am not amon...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu Sep 20, 2018 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 60
Views: 9351

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

The sole argument against active investing is as follows: after fees, passive always beats active. It is a necessary corollary, therefore, that before fees, active investors do as well, if not better, than passive. Therefore, if you do the active investing yourself, you will do exactly the same, if...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 60
Views: 9351

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

The sole argument against active investing is as follows: after fees, passive always beats active. It is a necessary corollary, therefore, that before fees, active investors do as well, if not better, than passive. Therefore, if you do the active investing yourself, you will do exactly the same, if ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu Sep 20, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?
Replies: 60
Views: 9351

Re: Are We Headed For A Passive Index Meltdown?

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 5:24 pm
.....It is to be expected that some active funds will return more than the relevant comparison index every year. The difficulty is predicting in advance which ones will....
The difficulty of all investing is predicting in advance.
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu Sep 20, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller interview: "Market could get a lot higher"
Replies: 28
Views: 4636

Re: Robert Shiller interview: "Market could get a lot higher"

we do have the govt to thank for this. 401Ks, 529s, Roth plans etc. all ensure $$ gets invested in the stock market every month. Not sure I understand your main point but it does remind me of a thought I've had where if so many people automatically invest in the broad market doesnt that inflate val...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?
Replies: 152
Views: 11730

Re: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?

We have 20+ years of expenses in FI. We have 20+ years expenses in equities. We are about 50/50 at 55 years of age. My pension provides 3X our expenses. DW's income provides 1.5X expenses. She retires next year and her pension will provide 1x expenses. I don't feel the need to take more risk since ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?
Replies: 152
Views: 11730

Re: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?

Obviously, you cannot. But the moral of the story is the same as the title of a very popular book: "Triumph of the Optimists." IMHO, too many have bought into the notion that "stocks are volatile, so you always need a healthy proportion of your portfolio in fixed income." I'm not saying that fixed ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?
Replies: 152
Views: 11730

Re: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?

Considering that stocks have roughly quadrupled in the last 9.5 years while bonds have had very meager returns, it would take a market correction on the order of the Great Depression at least for the stock-tilted investor to not come out ahead. And if bonds reacted the same way as they did in the G...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?
Replies: 152
Views: 11730

Re: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?

I would personally feel silly having 40% of my money in fixed income as I'm still needing growth. The real return just isn't there. If high quality bonds had an expected return of 4% real, I would have more fixed income. I doubt I will ever have 40% of my money in fixed income, but we'll see. And I...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?
Replies: 152
Views: 11730

Re: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?

I remember when the conversation on here during 2009/2010 was about how 60/40 was a good all weather portfolio- now the discussion is about how unnecessary (or rather minimal) a bond position is/should be in making up ones portfolio-just an observation Anyone else remember this? Wait until your fir...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?
Replies: 152
Views: 11730

Re: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?

I remember when the conversation on here during 2009/2010 was about how 60/40 was a good all weather portfolio- now the discussion is about how unnecessary (or rather minimal) a bond position is/should be in making up ones portfolio-just an observation Anyone else remember this? Wait until your fir...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?
Replies: 152
Views: 11730

Re: Age in Bonds - Still Recommended?

I started reading Bogleheads in 2007 and have been following on and off since. Early in that process I decided on my Asset Allocation, which includes the decision to implement the “your age in bonds” rule. I have been dutifully increasing my target bond allocation by 1% for the last decade (I’m now...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard and Certificate of Deposits
Replies: 8
Views: 1166

Re: Vanguard and Certificate of Deposits

rkhusky wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:31 am
TIAX wrote:
Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:34 pm
yousha wrote:
Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:18 pm
I now learned that you must have a brokerage account to do so...I am not interested in opening one. Thanks anyway.
I believe you can open a new separate brokerage account and leave your old mutual fund accounts.
True.
For now.
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1185
Views: 97871

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Being not correlated to other assets aren't enough to merit an inclusion, even for diversification purposes. A positive expected return above inflation is required. Commodities do not have a positive expected return above inflation. CCFs are different story since they promise to have double return ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 53
Views: 5178

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

I guess my devil's advocate argument is that there were so many experts with great records who missed 2008. And many who got 2008 right but got the aftermath wrong. We all know that we're experiencing debt levels high by historic standards. But, as Jack Bogle says, "nobody knows nuthin' ". In this ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed Sep 12, 2018 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 18918

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

Nor for me. I recommended an "age-appropriate" Target Date fund for a friend in 2004, and it performed terribly in 2008, just as he was about to retire. We are no longer friends. I still feel terrible about it. Never again.... But just about all funds would have performed terribly in 2008 - and an ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 18918

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

Rick, Perhaps time for a Lifestrategy fund. +1 Or Target Date. Always a solid choice when your friend/relative starts asking for financial advice. Nor for me. I recommended an "age-appropriate" Target Date fund for a friend in 2004, and it performed terribly in 2008, just as he was about to retire....
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 18918

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

Rick, Perhaps time for a Lifestrategy fund. +1 Or Target Date. Always a solid choice when your friend/relative starts asking for financial advice. Nor for me. I recommended an "age-appropriate" Target Date fund for a friend in 2004, and it performed terribly in 2008, just as he was about to retire....
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is there a point where you should stop or hold off rebalancing?
Replies: 15
Views: 1112

Re: Is there a point where you should stop or hold off rebalancing?

rgs92 wrote:
Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:27 pm
I believe specifically buying EM at all is not the Boglehead way. You are supposed to buy the whole forest, not the trees.
EM is a patch of trees that should not be accentuated. It is akin to buying a sector fund.
Pretty big patch of trees.
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1185
Views: 97871

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

The U.S. central bank is shifting its monetary policy in two significant ways: raising interest rates and reducing the size of its balance sheet. Other parts of the world are still seeing QE. Investors should understand this unwinding in the U.S represents some risk with potential consequences. The...