Search found 808 matches

by gmaynardkrebs
Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 630
Views: 38027

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

This! Performance has nothing to do with the Bogleheads strategy. It says, buy and hold your asset allocation and dont mess with it. Be content that you are going to get the market returns. It is highly unlikely that you will be able to beat the market in the long run, so diversify , keep your cost...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 630
Views: 38027

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

No matter how efficient the market is, it cannot change the fact that a European investor buying European stocks with euros experiences less risk than a US investor buying those identical European stocks with dollars, and that a US investor buying US stocks in dollars experiences less risk and the ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 630
Views: 38027

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

No matter how efficient the market is, it cannot change the fact that a European investor buying European stocks with euros experiences less risk than a US investor buying those identical European stocks with dollars, and that a US investor buying US stocks in dollars experiences less risk and the ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 630
Views: 38027

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

If you prefer the safety of US, that's fine, but your returns will likely be greater if you up your international allocation. The market has already priced in everything you have observed. That's why international has lower valuations than US, and why, therefore, the expected returns of internation...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu Aug 16, 2018 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 630
Views: 38027

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

buylowbuyhigh wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:06 am
Sadly, names starting with 'B' are quite rare in Finland, which is why I am 99.65% international.
Not surprised. The Finnish phone book has only four last names.
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maturing Credit Union 3% CD's this year
Replies: 45
Views: 4550

Re: Maturing Credit Union 3% CD's this year

One caveat is to read the reviews on these banks or credit unions, as some of them may have some negative aspects to consider....considering the convenience of not having to open another bank account, make sure beneficiaries for POD are designated.. Does this POD apply to brokered CDs? I hold a few...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu Aug 16, 2018 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very confused with the current market
Replies: 112
Views: 12513

Re: Very confused with the current market

show me the 80 years bull? 1990-2000-2008 all most every ten years Well, if you just look at the start and the finish (1990 to 2018), the market did nothing but go up. It's all about perspective and how long you stay invested. The overall trend is that given enough time the market ALWAYS goes up. T...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu Aug 16, 2018 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 630
Views: 38027

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I must agree with the original poster, Int'l investing has not paid off in the last 26 years. Everyone has their own bias based on their frame of reference. My lens begins in 1992 when I began tracking my investments. Since 1992, Int'l markets (EAFE) have severely underperformed having delivered an...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu Aug 16, 2018 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very confused with the current market
Replies: 112
Views: 12513

Re: Very confused with the current market

Investing has been shown to be the best wealth builder. Get in, don't overthink it! Saving more and spending less should go ahead of "investing," if by that you mean stock market exposure. There are people who always chime in with "but without stocks, there is a risk you won't be able to achieve yo...
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 630
Views: 38027

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Australian stocks have dramatically outperformed US stocks over the period from 1900 to present. That's much longer term than a mere 30 years! Since including US stocks would have dragged down returns compared to an all-Australia portfolio, why are we still considering investing in the US when the ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 630
Views: 38027

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Australian stocks have dramatically outperformed US stocks over the period from 1900 to present. That's much longer term than a mere 30 years! Since including US stocks would have dragged down returns compared to an all-Australia portfolio, why are we still considering investing in the US when the ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 630
Views: 38027

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Of course the 30 year period I referred to is somewhat cherry picked; I said it was. But that doesn't mean that it isn't deemed to be relevant to many investors, as evidenced by the OP's statement. And for the record, the U.S. has outperformed international over the last 20 and 10 years as well. At...
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 630
Views: 38027

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Of course the 30 year period I referred to is somewhat cherry picked; I said it was. But that doesn't mean that it isn't deemed to be relevant to many investors, as evidenced by the OP's statement. And for the record, the U.S. has outperformed international over the last 20 and 10 years as well. At...
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed Aug 15, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 630
Views: 38027

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Where I begin to object most vociferously is when those rationalizations get posted in public in the form of erroneous generalizations or outright misinformation, because then REASONABLE people become confused to the point that they don't even know what is true. So when I say that there have NOT be...
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed Aug 15, 2018 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe's guidelines to Bonds
Replies: 137
Views: 14310

Re: Swedroe's guidelines to Bonds

larryswedroe wrote: The market price based on the historical evidence is that today's yield curve is the best estimate of tomorrow's yield curve. Although this may seem like a niggling question, is it actually based on historical evidence? I thought it was a direct corollary of the EMH. It wouldn't...
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed Aug 15, 2018 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very confused with the current market
Replies: 112
Views: 12513

Re: Very confused with the current market

Investing has been shown to be the best wealth builder. Get in, don't overthink it! Saving more and spending less should go ahead of "investing," if by that you mean stock market exposure. There are people who always chime in with "but without stocks, there is a risk you won't be able to achieve yo...
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11463

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

deleted -- duplicate
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11463

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

I find it a bit strange that he is having private exchanges with various Bogleheads, who are then making his thoughts public. I understand he is being sulky for some criticisms he received years ago, but perhaps if he wants to continue to contribute to discussions wouldn't the most efficient way be...
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11463

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

I am having an interesting exchange with Larry Swedroe via personal message. Pretty much his firm is putting less importance upon the metric of book value. What I have been saying is that the accountants have understated the value of companies, book value pretty consistently is much less than the m...
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11463

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

Well, I guess if you define "bargain" to be what CAPE tells you, then it is a kind of a tautology. I prefer to have the market make those judgements. How does one do that? You buy at whatever the current market price is without any regard to valuations. The problem I have with that view is that it'...
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11463

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

marcopolo wrote:
Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:33 am
Well, I guess if you define "bargain" to be what CAPE tells you, then it is a kind of a tautology. I prefer to have the market make those judgements.
How does one do that?
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11463

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

How many threads/posts were there back in 2008-2009, when CAPE was under its historic mean and median, where CAPE proponents were advocating that people dump everything they could into stocks and advocating 6% withdrawal rates for retirees? The absence of such recommendations should give one pause....
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: More cash instead of bonds
Replies: 15
Views: 1820

Re: More cash instead of bonds

With 2+% money markets are available nowadays; does anyone hold more cash instead of bonds? What are the pros/cons of doing so? More cash than bonds in a retirement portfolio doesn't make a lot of sense, but we have a fair number of people here who say they are staying on the short to intermediate ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11463

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

How many threads/posts were there back in 2008-2009, when CAPE was under its historic mean and median, where CAPE proponents were advocating that people dump everything they could into stocks and advocating 6% withdrawal rates for retirees? The absence of such recommendations should give one pause....
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation adjusted annuity
Replies: 26
Views: 1548

Re: Inflation adjusted annuity

Regardless of BobK's recommendation, I would avoid true inflation adjusted annuities. An insurance company takes a LOT of risk with a product like that and the price to the annuitant will be unreasonably high. Whenever I've checked, the price for a CPI-linked annuity has been a tad less than the pr...
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation adjusted annuity
Replies: 26
Views: 1548

Re: Inflation adjusted annuity

Regardless of BobK's recommendation, I would avoid true inflation adjusted annuities. An insurance company takes a LOT of risk with a product like that and the price to the annuitant will be unreasonably high. Whenever I've checked, the price for a CPI-linked annuity has been a tad less than the pr...
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation adjusted annuity
Replies: 26
Views: 1548

Re: Inflation adjusted annuity

Regardless of BobK's recommendation, I would avoid true inflation adjusted annuities. An insurance company takes a LOT of risk with a product like that and the price to the annuitant will be unreasonably high. Whenever I've checked, the price for a CPI-linked annuity has been a tad less than the pr...
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation adjusted annuity
Replies: 26
Views: 1548

Re: Inflation adjusted annuity

Yes, as they are taking on a lot of tail risk. But maybe, it's not so clear. I'd like to know their ratings. If there is high inflation, a low rated company can easily shift the tail risk to he policyholder by defaulting. Heads they win, tails you lose. Good point. Certainly want to pay attention t...
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard Security Code Requirement [2FA: Two-factor authentication]
Replies: 185
Views: 11565

Re: New Vanguard Security Code Requirement [2FA: Two-factor authentication]

So, I think it's safe, and if your cookies get cleared or change browsers of computers, it's not a probkem. I keep seeing this cookies clear thing. I periodically clear cookies but have not had a 2FA problem. Either cookies are not an issue or I have screwed up somewhere. Help me. It's only a "prob...
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: nytimes buy vs rent calc does not consider new tax law
Replies: 8
Views: 1297

Re: nytimes buy vs rent calc does not consider new tax law

Presumably the calculator was not also updated for the majority of the population for whom these limits do not impact, but received a significant income tax reduction due to an increase in the standard deduction and a reduction in income tax rates. These items would allow more after tax income to b...
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation adjusted annuity
Replies: 26
Views: 1548

Re: Inflation adjusted annuity

Something interesting: The monthly payout amount difference between a CPI annuity and 3% cost of living adjustment is roughly 1% (depending on age input) with the same company. The best quote for a 3% COLA with another company is about 8% (again, depending on age input among other info) more than t...
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11463

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

The blog’s indicator is based on the percentage of household financial assets—stocks, bonds and cash—that is allocated to stocks. This proportion tends to be highest at market tops and lowest at market bottoms. (From the recent WSJ article by Mark Hulburt) So, the logical implication is that if eve...
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11463

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

The blog’s indicator is based on the percentage of household financial assets—stocks, bonds and cash—that is allocated to stocks. This proportion tends to be highest at market tops and lowest at market bottoms. (From the recent WSJ article by Mark Hulburt) So, the logical implication is that if eve...
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard Security Code Requirement [2FA: Two-factor authentication]
Replies: 185
Views: 11565

Re: New Vanguard Security Code Requirement [2FA: Two-factor authentication]

Would checking the box that permits me to only log in from my laptop prevent this? Most likely, yes. It would probably be worth validating with Vanguard that they can disable that setting if you call in and authenticate with voiceprint authentication, just to eliminate the single point of failure. ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Old dog needs to learn to manage his investments
Replies: 60
Views: 5153

Re: Old dog needs to learn to manage his investments

I would suggest reading the article before dismissing the majority of its results. Equities and bonds have different left-tail failure modes and there is no reason that a 50-50 mix could not have significantly lower variance of 30-year of 40-year real returns than either asset class by itself. In f...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: nytimes buy vs rent calc does not consider new tax law
Replies: 8
Views: 1297

Re: nytimes buy vs rent calc does not consider new tax law

Presumably the calculator was not also updated for the majority of the population for whom these limits do not impact, but received a significant income tax reduction due to an increase in the standard deduction and a reduction in income tax rates. These items would allow more after tax income to b...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Old dog needs to learn to manage his investments
Replies: 60
Views: 5153

Re: Old dog needs to learn to manage his investments

To put in in mathematical terms, equity portfolios have a much more perilous left tail than do safe assets, even when on average they are likely to outperform safe assets. In nominal terms, yes. The 30-year or 40-year real returns of nominal bonds have as perilous a left tail as equities. Have you ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Old dog needs to learn to manage his investments
Replies: 60
Views: 5153

Re: Old dog needs to learn to manage his investments

Where I disagree with you is in your mis-characterization of risk. With a higher equity allocation, while you "fail" less often, when you do fail, you are more likely to fail by a lot. Running out of money is running out of money. Not sure what you mean be fail by a lot. With a portfolio of 50% lar...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard Security Code Requirement [2FA: Two-factor authentication]
Replies: 185
Views: 11565

Re: New Vanguard Security Code Requirement [2FA: Two-factor authentication]

You click the link, you're presented with a login page that is cloned from the real Vanguard page, so there are no visual queues to make you think this isn't authentic. Your browser will have a green lock indicating a valid SSL certificate, because anyone can get a free domain-validated SSL certifi...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard Security Code Requirement [2FA: Two-factor authentication]
Replies: 185
Views: 11565

Re: New Vanguard Security Code Requirement [2FA: Two-factor authentication]

Outside of those benefits, for almost all likely scenarios where an attacker is able to obtain your password, they are also going to be able to obtain at least 1 working 2FA code as well. I don't follow. Suppose my password is qwerty, which I only use for Vanguard, and they get that somehow. They t...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Preparing for a bear market
Replies: 43
Views: 5054

Re: Preparing for a bear market

Since you pay attention to the media hype and worry about it 70/30 was provbably too risky for you and 50/50 is probabably better. Although personally I see no signs of a recession with the economy booming, unemployment low, best business growth environment in decades, etc. ... The overwhelming dri...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard Security Code Requirement [2FA: Two-factor authentication]
Replies: 185
Views: 11565

Re: New Vanguard Security Code Requirement [2FA: Two-factor authentication]

... if you change browsers or delete cookies or offline content, your computer may become unrecognized. I don't know the answer to your actual question, but even without changing computers I think your device can become unrecognized just due to updates (along with those other things Vanguard lists)...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard Security Code Requirement [2FA: Two-factor authentication]
Replies: 185
Views: 11565

Re: New Vanguard Security Code Requirement [2FA: Two-factor authentication]

Vanguard says that if I choose the option "Restrict unrecognized computers, browsers, or mobile devices from accessing my accounts,"... if you change browsers or delete cookies or offline content, your computer may become unrecognized. To access your accounts using an unrecognized device, you'll nee...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Old dog needs to learn to manage his investments
Replies: 60
Views: 5153

Re: Old dog needs to learn to manage his investments

The risk adjustment questionnaires are ludicrous. In my experience, even when I choose the most risk averse answers they offer, I end up with an excessive equity allocation. Recommendations for asset allocation by fund companies have been getting more aggressive over the years. I tend to look at ag...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Old dog needs to learn to manage his investments
Replies: 60
Views: 5153

Re: Old dog needs to learn to manage his investments

That 600k in 10 years should be over 1million... with no new contributions. With no new contributions, to achieve $1M in today's dollars would require a 5.1% real return over the next 10 years. The odds of achieving that with a 60/40 portfolio are quite low. I have no quantitative opinion about the...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Preparing for a bear market
Replies: 43
Views: 5054

Re: Preparing for a bear market

Since you pay attention to the media hype and worry about it 70/30 was provbably too risky for you and 50/50 is probabably better. Although personally I see no signs of a recession with the economy booming, unemployment low, best business growth environment in decades, etc. ... The overwhelming dri...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Old dog needs to learn to manage his investments
Replies: 60
Views: 5153

Re: Old dog needs to learn to manage his investments

tesuzuki2002 wrote:
Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:13 pm
That 600k in 10 years should be over 1million... with no new contributions.
With no new contributions, to achieve $1M in today's dollars would require a 5.1% real return over the next 10 years. The odds of achieving that with a 60/40 portfolio are quite low.
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Evaluating Munis beyond rating
Replies: 11
Views: 892

Re: Evaluating Munis beyond rating

I'm looking into buying some AA or better muni bonds. Curious if there are other indicators of risk besides the S&P or Moody's rating? For example ... Date of last rating Underlying rating pay frequency...money in the bank if more frequent? How do you feel about AA- or AA3 vs AA? Are these signific...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Preparing for a bear market
Replies: 43
Views: 5054

Re: Preparing for a bear market

... today’s New York Times (The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt) have me worried that this may not be the time to reallocate to bonds as the best way of reducing our risk if there is a downturn. Any advice? However dangerous the alleged bubble in corporate debt, the danger to equity holders...