Search found 392 matches

by gmaynardkrebs
Sun May 20, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vangaurd Municipal Money Market VMSXX 1.39%
Replies: 72
Views: 6564

Re: Vangaurd Municipal Money Market VMSXX 1.39%

Is VMSXX FDIC insured? If not, should I worry about that? Money market funds are not FDIC-insured. The likelihood of a Vanguard money market fund "breaking the buck" would have to be considered virtually zero and if it were to happen, you'd have a lot more things to worry about. I've read this here...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat May 19, 2018 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vangaurd Municipal Money Market VMSXX 1.39%
Replies: 72
Views: 6564

Re: Vangaurd Municipal Money Market VMSXX 1.39%

Anyone care to offer thoughts on Muni money market versus vanguard limited term tax exempt bond fund for large short term savings, such as a house downpayment? I chose the bond fund last year compared to a then 1.05% Ally account. Top federal tax bracket. I like the short term muni better -- the du...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu May 17, 2018 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year AA Munis at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 134
Views: 8844

Re: 2-year AA Munis at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Difference in expected return between the two $10k investments over the 1.65 years is thirty bucks, after taxes. Unless one of them defaults. I guess I should have included the emphasis in the original. Does the difference in expected return fully capture the default risk? That’s a question, not a ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu May 17, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year AA Munis at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 134
Views: 8844

Re: 2-year AA Munis at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

ofckrupke wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 7:09 pm
Difference in expected return between the two $10k investments over the 1.65 years is thirty bucks, after taxes.
Unless one of them defaults.
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu May 17, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year AA Munis at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 134
Views: 8844

Re: 2-year AA Munis at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Full faith and credit Treasury vs. some NJ school district with no wrap, for 27.4 basis points? What can happen in 1.65 years in NJ? Ever watch the Sopranos? :wink: Ever heard of Chris Christie? Christine Todd Whitman? NJ is the place where things that just don't happen, happen. I think you have Ke...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu May 17, 2018 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year AA Munis at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 134
Views: 8844

Re: 2-year AA Munis at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Full faith and credit Treasury vs. some NJ school district with no wrap, for 27.4 basis points? What can happen in 1.65 years in NJ? Ever watch the Sopranos? :wink: Ever heard of Chris Christie? Christine Todd Whitman? NJ is the place where things that just don't happen, happen. I think you have Key...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu May 17, 2018 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rates are going up. Should I pull $ out of Munis?
Replies: 10
Views: 977

Re: Rates are going up. Should I pull $ out of Munis?

I think the tax reform came as unexpected surprise to the muni market. I would have thought the the end of SALT would lower yields, but apparently the lower rates for top brackets trumped SALT. In that sense, what happened to muni yields looks like a major surprise, which is possible in any investme...
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed May 16, 2018 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year AA Munis at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 134
Views: 8844

Re: 2-year AA Munis at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Kevin, which Treasuries are you looking at. Can one realistically expect inefficient pricing opportunities in the treasury market? Wouldn’t it have to be more of an intermediation type of situation? Sorry, I don't understand the question. I don't expect inefficient pricing opportunities in the Trea...
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed May 16, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year AA Munis at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 134
Views: 8844

Re: 2-year AA Munis at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Kevin, which Treasuries are you looking at. Can one realistically expect inefficient pricing opportunities in the treasury market? Wouldn’t it have to be more of an intermediation type of situation?
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon May 14, 2018 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Whole Life Insurance Worth It?
Replies: 50
Views: 3617

Re: Is Whole Life Insurance Worth It?

You are mixing investment types, HomerJ, Total Stock Market Index fund is not a bond fund and it carries with it a TON of risk compared to one. Of course it is more tax friendly because it is a STOCK fund. I am talking about the "safe" part of my portfolio, not the risky part. I think you would agr...
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon May 14, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Whole Life Insurance Worth It?
Replies: 50
Views: 3617

Re: Is Whole Life Insurance Worth It?

It's not a horrible investment either. Consumer Reports has made the point through the years that the big problems are twofold: many policies are cancelled within a few years, due to the cost; more importantly, due to the cost, the amount of insurance purchased is simply inadequate to the need. The ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon May 14, 2018 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Whole Life Insurance Worth It?
Replies: 50
Views: 3617

Re: Is Whole Life Insurance Worth It?

The fact that you can still contribute to a Roth account tells me the answer should be term life. When I was younger I bought enough term to cover my salary until my young kids were out of college plus college plus enough to pay off my house so my wife wouldn't have to go back to work until she wan...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun May 13, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard GNMA VS Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund
Replies: 6
Views: 838

Re: Vanguard GNMA VS Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund

Since there won't be a lot of refinancing I suspect, I'd probably stick with the GNMA. Others may feel differently. But, note, the GNMA is a federal obligation, with no default risk. The other fund is a mix of corporate and usgov if I recall correctly.
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun May 13, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: short term investment
Replies: 17
Views: 1010

Re: short term investment

In a rising interest rate environment, 2 year Treasuries are not risk free for short term money. I use the demand notes as my cash buffer. They hold 6 months of expenses that I draw down on monthly plus taxes that are due next April which are above my estimated tax payments. before going with this,...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat May 12, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: short term investment
Replies: 17
Views: 1010

Re: short term investment

If you’re willing to take a little risk, Mercedes Benz Financial First Class Demand Notes are paying 2.6% That’s the best I’ve found on demand deposits. Only available to accredited investors and NOT FDIC insured https://firstclassdemandnotes.com Maybe not. Check today's WSJ Intelligent Investor co...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat May 12, 2018 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: short term investment
Replies: 17
Views: 1010

Re: short term investment

veena9111 wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 5:17 pm
Thank You all. What are treasuries?
Are they risk free?
:happy
Yes. Full faith and credit of the United States government.
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat May 12, 2018 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Mom's portfolio
Replies: 21
Views: 892

Re: Help with Mom's portfolio

It depends on the basis. If you can clear that hurdle, it might make sense to look at the liquidity/fees/spread issues.
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat May 12, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Whole Life Insurance Worth It?
Replies: 50
Views: 3617

Re: Is Whole Life Insurance Worth It?

When I was your age I got sucked into a 250k whole life insurance policy. I thought that was a lot of money, but 35 years later, 250k ain't what it used to be. The only people who might need it are those who will have insurance needs past the age of about 65 to 70. That doesn't sound like you. Nisip...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat May 12, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: short term investment
Replies: 17
Views: 1010

Re: short term investment

Either treasury money market fund or 3 month bills.
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat May 12, 2018 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni Money Market funds starting to look good!
Replies: 139
Views: 23903

Re: Muni Money Market funds starting to look good!

am wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 2:40 pm
Why do you think the mm dips at the end while all other municipal debt rises?
Word got out. It seems like an anomaly.
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat May 12, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Mom's portfolio
Replies: 21
Views: 892

Re: Help with Mom's portfolio

The first thing I would change is the broker who sold her this stuff.
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat May 12, 2018 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni Money Market funds starting to look good!
Replies: 139
Views: 23903

Re: Muni Money Market funds starting to look good!

Has anyone offered a theory about why the muni mm rates have risen so much? Is it entirely the new tax law, or is something else going on?
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat May 12, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 44
Views: 3905

Re: Retirement bonds

As you note, we're probably talking about a maximum 'reasonable' range of $1.8M to $2.4M. The $600k is a chunk of money, but historically that's an average of only a few years of additional growth. Considering the uncertainty surrounding SS benefits according to the SS Administration (they say that...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu May 10, 2018 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Ignore Investor Noise
Replies: 4
Views: 1014

Re: Larry Swedroe: Ignore Investor Noise

Given what Larry reports about the studies regarding the limits of arbitrage, which seem to open the door to rather major mis-pricing to the upside, I was somewhat surprised that impact of high investor sentiment was not a better predictor of future returns.
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed May 09, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 44
Views: 3905

Re: Retirement bonds

Isn't paying into Social Security essentially buying "retirement bonds"? Sounds like this would be like adding a voluntary component. That's my take on this idea as well. I don't see many Americans going for that. "Do you want to contribute even more to SS to increase your monthly benefits decades ...
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue May 08, 2018 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many Americans not own stocks?
Replies: 44
Views: 3514

Re: Why do so many Americans not own stocks?

I don't understand it. People complain about not having enough money. The fact is, the richest people own businesses, or are part-owners. That should give people a clue to buy stocks in companies. People can save up some money from their employment, in order to buy stocks. Why don't more people buy...
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon May 07, 2018 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 44
Views: 3905

Re: Retirement bonds

nisiprius wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 12:59 pm
And in 2048, what?
Le Guillotine?
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon May 07, 2018 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally online savings now at 1.60%
Replies: 171
Views: 25653

Re: Ally online savings now at 1.50%

I'm in the 12% Federal tax bracket for 2018 and pay no state income taxes. I have $50,000 (+ or -) so the difference in yearly interest is $740 at Ally vs $660 with the Vanguard fund but it is tax free. You would be better off with Prime Money Market at 1.83%, which would be 1.61% after 12% tax vs....
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun May 06, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lower expected stock returns means lower expected volatility?
Replies: 28
Views: 2054

Re: Lower expected stock returns means lower expected volatility?

I would speculate reversion to the mean eventually. It's been a long bull run that can't go on forever. That doesn't mean get out and wait for it though. But, it's pretty much impossible to predict. Global politics will be a large factor. I don't think lower returns means lower volatility necessari...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sun May 06, 2018 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing is more like poker than chess
Replies: 91
Views: 6081

Re: Investing is more like poker than chess

I treat investing like checkers. I drip invest each month into a 3 fund portfolio. More like tic tac toe except that you can’t lose at tic tac toe if you know what you are doing. Worse than "can't lose", unless you can find someone who plays worse than you, you can't win and there is a cost to play...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat May 05, 2018 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing is more like poker than chess
Replies: 91
Views: 6081

Re: Investing is more like poker than chess

wootwoot wrote:
Sat May 05, 2018 11:40 pm
I treat investing like checkers. I drip invest each month into a 3 fund portfolio.
More like tic tac toe except that you can’t lose at tic tac toe if you know what you are doing.
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat May 05, 2018 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing is more like poker than chess
Replies: 91
Views: 6081

Re: Investing is more like poker than chess

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 12:37 am
...We're playing the odds when we invest, not solving a math problem.
Huh? Playing the odds is a math problem.
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat May 05, 2018 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chart: When 90% of the Stock Market is Indexed
Replies: 20
Views: 2656

Re: Chart: When 90% of the Stock Market is Indexed

Whether completely indiscriminate buying of stocks could create an asset bubble in stocks as a whole is a worthwhile question, but it is not an argument against using index funds. It is an argument against trying to fund retirement through automatic stock purchases in 401(k) plans. +1 This needs to...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat May 05, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chart: When 90% of the Stock Market is Indexed
Replies: 20
Views: 2656

Re: Chart: When 90% of the Stock Market is Indexed

What matters isn't the number of active traders, but the capital constraints on those that are willing to act on their convictions. I think this is where Bogle is going with this. Samuelson and Shiller both concluded that while markets are micro-efficient (ie the level of individual stocks), they ar...
by gmaynardkrebs
Sat May 05, 2018 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lower expected stock returns means lower expected volatility?
Replies: 28
Views: 2054

Re: Lower expected stock returns means lower expected volatility?

I would speculate reversion to the mean eventually. It's been a long bull run that can't go on forever. That doesn't mean get out and wait for it though. But, it's pretty much impossible to predict. Global politics will be a large factor. I don't think lower returns means lower volatility necessari...
by gmaynardkrebs
Fri May 04, 2018 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks for the Long Run by Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 33
Views: 4319

Re: Stocks for the Long Run by Jeremy Siegel

Lt. Columbo, Here is a interesting article on Jeremy Siegel that you might enjoy. It sounds like Jeremy Siegel & Warren Buffett are on the same page. enjoy... https://seekingalpha.com/article/4072242-total-return-long-run-jeremy-siegels-view-largely-accords-buffetts Siegel, who is a scholar, is far...
by gmaynardkrebs
Thu May 03, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees Never Had It Better
Replies: 31
Views: 5017

Re: Retirees Never Had It Better

Does that include the NPV of all the senior citizen discount buffets at Denny's?
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed May 02, 2018 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally online savings now at 1.60%
Replies: 171
Views: 25653

Re: Ally online savings now at 1.50%

Synchrony Bank is now at 1.65%. Slightly ahead of VG Treasury MM Fund (1.62%, $50k min.), but the Treasury fund has the state tax exemption. I consider VG Prime MM unsuitable for large sums due to lack of FDIC or implied Federal protection. Synchrony takes three days to move money, but that doesn't...
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed May 02, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally online savings now at 1.60%
Replies: 171
Views: 25653

Re: Ally online savings now at 1.50%

txranger wrote:
Tue May 01, 2018 2:06 pm
I got out of the 1.75% cds into vanguard muni mm, yields 1.53%, which is 2.2% at my marginal tax rate
Does muni interest get hit with the 3.8% Medicare/Obamacare tax?
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed May 02, 2018 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kiplinger article "..Guaranteed Inheritance for Kids"
Replies: 53
Views: 5365

Re: Kiplinger article "..Guaranteed Inheritance for Kids"

and we're happy to stay at Marriot Garden Inns when we travel. ???? Do you mean Hilton Garden Inns or Marriott Courtyards? Curious... Bogleheads would stay at either of those only if they got a package with the not-normally-included free breakfast. When it's really "free," we take the breakfast pac...
by gmaynardkrebs
Wed May 02, 2018 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kiplinger article "..Guaranteed Inheritance for Kids"
Replies: 53
Views: 5365

Re: Kiplinger article "..Guaranteed Inheritance for Kids"

If you really want zero risk you have to find an insurance company product and then you have to bet on the odds of them lasting 60+ years. Not sure if I prefer that to market risk:) That is the crazy part. If you are worried that market is NOT going to work for you as an individual investor over 60...
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue May 01, 2018 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kiplinger article "..Guaranteed Inheritance for Kids"
Replies: 53
Views: 5365

Re: Kiplinger article "..Guaranteed Inheritance for Kids"

If you have enough money for an inflation adjusted annuity fora <30 year old, you have enough drastically overfunding the portfolio In theory yes. But Wall Street makes it's living by hiding tail risk. If the broker mentions an inflation adjusted annuity at all, it will be to trash it in favor of a...
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue May 01, 2018 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kiplinger article "..Guaranteed Inheritance for Kids"
Replies: 53
Views: 5365

Re: Kiplinger article "..Guaranteed Inheritance for Kids"

If you have enough money for an inflation adjusted annuity fora <30 year old, you have enough drastically overfunding the portfolio In theory yes. But Wall Street makes it's living by hiding tail risk. If the broker mentions an inflation adjusted annuity at all, it will be to trash it in favor of a...
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue May 01, 2018 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kiplinger article "..Guaranteed Inheritance for Kids"
Replies: 53
Views: 5365

Re: Kiplinger article "..Guaranteed Inheritance for Kids"

I agree that the Kiplinger article plan is abominable from any standpoint.
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue May 01, 2018 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kiplinger article "..Guaranteed Inheritance for Kids"
Replies: 53
Views: 5365

Re: Kiplinger article "..Guaranteed Inheritance for Kids"

:wink: life insurance and annuities! yuck! No thank you. I guess my kids' inheritance won't be guaranteed. Poor kids... :( Actually, for an estate planing situation where you know pretty much how much you want to leave your heirs, they can be extremely good for you and for your heirs. You buy a "la...
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue May 01, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kiplinger article "..Guaranteed Inheritance for Kids"
Replies: 53
Views: 5365

Re: Kiplinger article "..Guaranteed Inheritance for Kids"

If you have enough money for an inflation adjusted annuity fora <30 year old, you have enough drastically overfunding the portfolio In theory yes. But Wall Street makes it's living by hiding tail risk. If the broker mentions an inflation adjusted annuity at all, it will be to trash it in favor of a...
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue May 01, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6545
Views: 1402900

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

We must be getting accustomed to seeing the market drop. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 1% yesterday and is down half a percent so far today with nary a post regarding the drop in sight. Bunny hopping seems to be the new norm. I agree -- I just figure it's temporary at this point. So far, so good. I th...
by gmaynardkrebs
Tue May 01, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kiplinger article "..Guaranteed Inheritance for Kids"
Replies: 53
Views: 5365

Re: Kiplinger article "..Guaranteed Inheritance for Kids"

Having the insurance, in an adequate amount, allows the parents to spend down their assets if the wish, knowing that they have put away enough to care for their child when they are gone. You did not answer the question. How is the child supported before getting the insurance money? Theoretically, t...
by gmaynardkrebs
Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kiplinger article "..Guaranteed Inheritance for Kids"
Replies: 53
Views: 5365

Re: Kiplinger article "..Guaranteed Inheritance for Kids"

MrPotatoHead wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:40 pm
gmaynardkrebs wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:28 pm
and we're happy to stay at Marriot Garden Inns when we travel.
???? Do you mean Hilton Garden Inns or Marriott Courtyards? Curious...
right. We use both. I’d say they are pretty comparable.