Search found 376 matches

by SkepticalGuy
Thu Feb 12, 2009 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PlanB Redux:Let's Reconcile Bogle's Advice!Taylor
Replies: 179
Views: 25085

Yeah, I'd certainly find a well-done study that found that doctors smoke every bit as much as others of comparable social class MORE meaningful than, say, some old hidden camera footage of C. Everett Koop chain-smoking a pack of Luckies, but absent the former sort of data I can't honestly say I'd c...
by SkepticalGuy
Thu Feb 12, 2009 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PlanB Redux:Let's Reconcile Bogle's Advice!Taylor
Replies: 179
Views: 25085

Pete wrote: I probably like statistics more than 99.99% of this forum, but I do also like to be able to put a face on a portfolio, so to speak. More generally, I agree with you that a single case is insignificant in its own right, but IF we learn that even people with particularly high incentives no...
by SkepticalGuy
Thu Feb 12, 2009 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PlanB Redux:Let's Reconcile Bogle's Advice!Taylor
Replies: 179
Views: 25085

If Bogle's personal behavior shouldn't be relevant to anyone's investment strategies, what purpose does questioning it serve? I'm not asking what he did, I am asking why he said two different things about what he did. If you found out that he puts his money into leveraged Mongolian yak futures... N...
by SkepticalGuy
Thu Feb 12, 2009 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PlanB Redux:Let's Reconcile Bogle's Advice!Taylor
Replies: 179
Views: 25085

I explained very carefully why I believe that "what he did and when" are irrelevant. I'm still interested in hearing your response Are you really, because I get the impression you are going out of your way to not "hear" it. I'll repeat my response: What Bogle and Larimore do has no bearing on how m...
by SkepticalGuy
Thu Feb 12, 2009 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PlanB Redux:Let's Reconcile Bogle's Advice!Taylor
Replies: 179
Views: 25085

Darryl wrote: When people put their own portfolios out there for discussion or to make a point, they make their business our business. And it's not out of line to ask about inconsistencies. I didn't suggest that Jeffy's query was "out of line" if by that you mean improperly intrusive. I proposed tha...
by SkepticalGuy
Thu Feb 12, 2009 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PlanB Redux:Let's Reconcile Bogle's Advice!Taylor
Replies: 179
Views: 25085

Nice selective editing there, here is an alternative edit: You have stated that you have not touched your asset allocation since March of 2000. That second article states that you sold stocks in 2002 Does that make his inconsistency clear enough? What Bogle and Larimore do has no bearing on how my ...
by SkepticalGuy
Thu Feb 12, 2009 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PlanB Redux:Let's Reconcile Bogle's Advice!Taylor
Replies: 179
Views: 25085

First Darryl was obsessing about Taylor's investments and now jeffyscott wants explanations about Bogle's portfolio. No, what I asked for is an explanation of his inconsistent statements that he has chosen to make and allowed to be published about his portfolio. Jeffy, Here's what you posted: Howev...
by SkepticalGuy
Wed Feb 11, 2009 5:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advisor's Response to Transfer to Vanguard
Replies: 33
Views: 5499

Tedious but nonetheless irritating. At least three different outfits have played the "don't limit yourself to average returns" card with me. I think it must be a pretty successful strategy.
by SkepticalGuy
Wed Feb 11, 2009 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PlanB Redux:Let's Reconcile Bogle's Advice!Taylor
Replies: 179
Views: 25085

OK, that's what I was worried about. The facts about artery plaques aren't changed by what your doctor eats for breakfast, and the realities of financial economics won't change if Bogle and Larimore switch to high-cost active funds (or a cash shredder). I'll bow out of this with a note that it's da...
by SkepticalGuy
Wed Feb 11, 2009 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PlanB Redux:Let's Reconcile Bogle's Advice!Taylor
Replies: 179
Views: 25085

Do you feel personally betrayed when your doctor eats eggs and bacon for breakfast? Does it shake your understanding of cardiology? Do you feel an urge to monitor his or her exercise routines? The answer to your question is basically yes! Cardio health is hard to quantify by looking at someone. But...
by SkepticalGuy
Wed Feb 11, 2009 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PlanB Redux:Let's Reconcile Bogle's Advice!Taylor
Replies: 179
Views: 25085

First Darryl was obsessing about Taylor's investments and now jeffyscott wants explanations about Bogle's portfolio. Do you feel personally betrayed when your doctor eats eggs and bacon for breakfast? Does it shake your understanding of cardiology? Do you feel an urge to monitor his or her exercise ...
by SkepticalGuy
Wed Feb 11, 2009 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Plan B: Is there a new Bogleheads paradigm?
Replies: 148
Views: 21004

I don't know what to make of all the discomfiture over the idea of having a Plan B for when things don't work out as planned..... There has never been a guarantee that sticking with any particular AA or systematic AA scheme (like "age in bonds") would actually be the best course for any individual ...
by SkepticalGuy
Wed Feb 11, 2009 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Plan B: Is there a new Bogleheads paradigm?
Replies: 148
Views: 21004

I don't know what to make of all the discomfiture over the idea of having a Plan B for when things don't work out as planned..... There has never been a guarantee that sticking with any particular AA or systematic AA scheme (like "age in bonds") would actually be the best course for any individual ...
by SkepticalGuy
Wed Feb 11, 2009 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Plan B: Is there a new Bogleheads paradigm?
Replies: 148
Views: 21004

I don't know what to make of all the discomfiture over the idea of having a Plan B for when things don't work out as planned. Seems to me that having a Plan B is just a sensible accommodation to the fact that we're playing a statistical game where nothing is guaranteed. Any given stock/bond allocati...
by SkepticalGuy
Tue Feb 10, 2009 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PlanB Redux:Let's Reconcile Bogle's Advice!Taylor
Replies: 179
Views: 25085

Count me out of any group that thinks it needs or deserves to know about Taylor's own assets. I don't disagree, but the original post was put up by Taylor himself describing his own situation. As to whether Taylor has been completely consistent over time--I don't care and I'm not sure why you would...
by SkepticalGuy
Tue Feb 10, 2009 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PlanB Redux:Let's Reconcile Bogle's Advice!Taylor
Replies: 179
Views: 25085

Why, then, didn't you post your questions there? Why did you have to start a new thread, basically "calling out" Taylor for his remarks on another thread, rather than responding there? Frankly because the old thread is buried deep somewhere and this subject came up again as just an unrelated offsho...
by SkepticalGuy
Tue Feb 10, 2009 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: W. Bernstein: New Efficient Frontier Piece 2/09
Replies: 45
Views: 8523

It's very clear to me. So let me try to explain. (Bill can certainly chime in if I am off on this.) Today's economic environment is full of high risk. Some examples: We are in the midst of recession, high unemployment, fragile financial system and declining corporate profits. This perilous environm...
by SkepticalGuy
Mon Feb 09, 2009 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Health Care Trust Broken
Replies: 42
Views: 5640

I've known a few great docs, a bunch of OK guys, and a couple of scumbags who should have done jail time. Plenty of room for both praise and blame. You always need to be careful in choosing professional help of any kind. That said, I think some of the extreme criticism of physicians stems from a sim...
by SkepticalGuy
Mon Feb 09, 2009 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ok, maybe it IS different this time...
Replies: 18
Views: 3183

sgr000 wrote: I have no opinion what, if anything, I would do differently if this recession were different, though. I'm cowering in fear as fast as I can... This is just so wrong. Take a deep breath and focus your mind. You can't cower for maximum effect if you rush. The trick to handling these situ...
by SkepticalGuy
Sun Feb 08, 2009 8:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: turbo tax help
Replies: 9
Views: 1982

Here's what works in TT 2007. From the EasyStep menu, choose "Federal Taxes". Under the row of tabs ("Personal Info", "Federal Taxes", "Federal Review", etc) near the top of the TT window, you'll see a button labeled "Topic List". Press "Topic List". TT will show you a long list (menu) of topics. Cl...
by SkepticalGuy
Sun Feb 08, 2009 7:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: turbo tax help
Replies: 9
Views: 1982

Turbo Tax should calculate that for you and print out payment vouchers for the quarterly payments.
by SkepticalGuy
Sun Feb 08, 2009 7:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Late 70s/Early 80s back? Anyone notice the commercials?
Replies: 9
Views: 2291

I'm with Nisiprius--this looks potentially much worse. As a side note, though, I didn't think the late 70s were as unsettling as the early 70s when OPEC was experimenting with petroleum price/supply. A lot of us worried that OPEC had our sensitive parts in a vise and might crank the handle indefinit...
by SkepticalGuy
Sun Feb 08, 2009 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market woes fuel prepaid-tuition plans
Replies: 20
Views: 2563

Here's a pile o' data on college tuition inflation: http://www.finaid.org/savings/tuition-inflation.phtml From an economic PoV don't confuse tuition inflation with inflation on the actual cost of running the institution. The amount of money states contribute to running universities have dropped as ...
by SkepticalGuy
Sun Feb 08, 2009 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market woes fuel prepaid-tuition plans
Replies: 20
Views: 2563

Here's a pile o' data on college tuition inflation:

http://www.finaid.org/savings/tuition-inflation.phtml
by SkepticalGuy
Sun Feb 08, 2009 12:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trust/Inhertence Monkey Buisness
Replies: 4
Views: 1245

I believe that as a beneficiary of the trust you generally have a right to timely reports about the trust. My attorney cautioned me strongly about that issue when I acted as a trustee. I am not an attorney, so I can't tell you what "timely" means, but I suspect that 6 months is really pushing it. Th...
by SkepticalGuy
Fri Feb 06, 2009 11:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any experience with dental implants - Nobel "clear choi
Replies: 12
Views: 2890

I had a bone graft followed by the first of two scheduled implants this past year. For me, the bone graft was a more difficult experience than the implant. I was a little surprised by the lengthy healing period after implantation of the stent and before the installation of the new tooth. I was quite...
by SkepticalGuy
Fri Feb 06, 2009 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Potential adviser making up statistics?
Replies: 21
Views: 3546

As others have ably pointed out, the advisor's pitch is misleading at best.

The guy is either dishonest or too ignorant to know the difference. You don't need him in either case.

Bzzzt. Open the trap door. Next contestant.
by SkepticalGuy
Fri Feb 06, 2009 4:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What happened to College costs?
Replies: 121
Views: 17188

James, I think you're mostly right about the costs of PhD students, but it may be that the situation differs some by field. I suspect that grad students in the sciences and engineering are closer to self-supporting than students in (say) philosophy or maybe even business administration. Just a guess...
by SkepticalGuy
Fri Feb 06, 2009 12:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What happened to College costs?
Replies: 121
Views: 17188

I'm a little confused by all this anger about education costs. Sure, school costs more than I'd like at all levels and we ought to do our best to make education affordable. Nonetheless (to take the narrowest possible view of education as a benefit to the economy) we continue to enjoy titanic benefit...
by SkepticalGuy
Thu Feb 05, 2009 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't care if the economy recovers
Replies: 43
Views: 8111

Could it be that you are just bashing him because he staates so obvious that he does not care about problems that affect you or your close friends and family. The demand for more empathy is far less outspoken when it comes to problems of other more distant groups. If you read the original post clos...
by SkepticalGuy
Thu Feb 05, 2009 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't care if the economy recovers
Replies: 43
Views: 8111

richard wrote:
Bob_H wrote:Go back to school. Study Econ 101
Add compassion 101 and we'd almost be complete.
:thumbsup :thumbsup

[Edited to add a second thumbs-up]
by SkepticalGuy
Thu Feb 05, 2009 5:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Nervous signing Revocable Living Trust, Pour-Over Will,.....
Replies: 19
Views: 3581

You're probably OK. Inserting terms to favor herself in your trust would be an outstandingly boneheaded move for your attorney even if she had bad intentions. She could get in hot water tomorrow if you or anyone else noticed. If you're deeply worried about it, though, pay another attorney to spend 3...
by SkepticalGuy
Thu Feb 05, 2009 3:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: reasonable rate for portfolio management?
Replies: 6
Views: 1320

I haven't done a broad survey, but I talked to a few mgmt outfits two years ago on behalf of a relative. Fees on a percentage-of-assets basis were typically 1% or more unless managers also got kickbacks from selling financial products.
by SkepticalGuy
Wed Feb 04, 2009 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What happened to College costs?
Replies: 121
Views: 17188

Just edited my previous remarks to indicate that the doubling of K-12 spending since 1971 is in real (inflation-adjusted) dollars.
by SkepticalGuy
Wed Feb 04, 2009 5:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What happened to College costs?
Replies: 121
Views: 17188

daryll40 wrote: I am not quite sure how to directly prove my point and admit that perhaps it's somewhat subjective. But I will turn the question around and perhaps your answer can help us both come to some common ground. My question is "how much IS enough"? We've been told for at least my 49 year li...
by SkepticalGuy
Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: Retirement Dreams Deferred
Replies: 94
Views: 12051

Saw some clips of "On The Money" (CNBC) with Carmen Wong the past couple of weeks and yes there are people who've called in and are in their 50's but had 80-100% in stocks. Their retirement savings took a whopping 50% drop and were calling in for help. That's the problem - lack of knowledge about r...
by SkepticalGuy
Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What happened to College costs?
Replies: 121
Views: 17188

Ron wrote: I would have to agree with your comment. As an example, my grandparents (all four) came "off the farm" from Western Europe after WWI. They were "uneducated" in the traditionial sense. Of my parents, only one graduated from high school. The other quit to get a job in order to help the fami...
by SkepticalGuy
Wed Feb 04, 2009 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Engagement ring in Net Worth?
Replies: 57
Views: 9189

What, nothing to say about diversification? I considered that, BUT in some areas the HIGH COSTS and HIGH RISKS of diversification make it nearly impossible. You're a prudent investor, dm200. It's OK to glance at a prospectus for something interesting once in a while, but safer to stay the course if...
by SkepticalGuy
Wed Feb 04, 2009 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What happened to College costs?
Replies: 121
Views: 17188

I ask a question. We have been throwing more and more money at education for decades. Has it worked? Are young people at all levels better educated, for all the money we have spent on this? What do you guys think? n42 Exactly the right question. I think the answer is largely "no". Of course those i...
by SkepticalGuy
Tue Feb 03, 2009 11:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What happened to College costs?
Replies: 121
Views: 17188

I have been on a few college tours recently. When I was in college, the gym was a track and some free weights. Now, the students' gym has about 20 StairMasters and treadmills, all with personal video screens. They have all sorts of Nautilus machines. It's like the best gym you were ever in. I had a...
by SkepticalGuy
Tue Feb 03, 2009 10:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What happened to College costs?
Replies: 121
Views: 17188

Tuition was about $7,500 when I went to college in 1977. Tuition now is around $33,000 at a private school, maybe a little more. Basically, tuition has doubled twice in 32 years. I don't know if that is that ridiculous. In today's dollars, your 1977 tuition would be $26,290 according to the Bureau ...
by SkepticalGuy
Tue Feb 03, 2009 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Engagement ring in Net Worth?
Replies: 57
Views: 9189

The RING is an expense . The (future) wife is either a large asset or a large liability, depending on quailty. Beat me to it. :lol: :lol: :lol: yes, IMO, the "key" is quality . Just like an investment, some wives are better in an up market, while others are better in a down market. Focus on both. A...
by SkepticalGuy
Tue Feb 03, 2009 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What happened to College costs?
Replies: 121
Views: 17188

In other words, nearly all of the areas which have moved the US economy ahead in either profitability or productivity--producing millions of follow-in jobs--were possible only because of the contributions of a minuscule fraction of the millions who went to college. To look at it in the coldest poss...
by SkepticalGuy
Tue Feb 03, 2009 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Markets and the Singularity
Replies: 40
Views: 5640

It's a pretty safe bet that something big and interesting will happen, but that isn't saying much. I'm not thrilled by the stuff about machine consciousness. Sure, it could happen eventually. But I've followed the literature on and off since about 1969, and the enthusiasts have regularly predicted ...
by SkepticalGuy
Tue Feb 03, 2009 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: Retirement Dreams Deferred
Replies: 94
Views: 12051

A downturn is unlikely to hurt secondary education all that much. Public school teachers can make up to $100K a year in some districts, get summers off to supplement that income if desired, have lifetime job security and health benefits, and are eligible for a pension of 60% of salary at age 55 or ...
by SkepticalGuy
Tue Feb 03, 2009 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Markets and the Singularity
Replies: 40
Views: 5640

It's a pretty safe bet that something big and interesting will happen, but that isn't saying much. I'm not thrilled by the stuff about machine consciousness. Sure, it could happen eventually. But I've followed the literature on and off since about 1969, and the enthusiasts have regularly predicted t...
by SkepticalGuy
Tue Feb 03, 2009 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Engagement ring in Net Worth?
Replies: 57
Views: 9189

If you already have the ring, then it's part of your net worth, i.e., it's an asset you own. OTOH, if you don't have the ring yet, then it's a future expense. Of course, your net worth won't change after you buy the ring, since you'll be exchanging one asset (cash) for another (ring). That's the ma...
by SkepticalGuy
Tue Feb 03, 2009 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: Retirement Dreams Deferred
Replies: 94
Views: 12051

Not just retirement dreams - this accumulator is delaying buying a home, starting a family, and buying a car, possibly for years. Yeah, good point. Every so often I turn off Lawrence Welk, pour myself a tall Metamucil, and try to think about stuff like that. In addition to the real problems you poi...
by SkepticalGuy
Tue Feb 03, 2009 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Engagement ring in Net Worth?
Replies: 57
Views: 9189

Almost everyone I know who's sold jewelry has been disappointed by the difference between expectation and actual sale price. Unless the engagement ring is something really unusual with a special place in the market (extremely rare antique, enormous high-quality stone, etc) I wouldn't bother counting...
by SkepticalGuy
Tue Feb 03, 2009 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Markets and the Singularity
Replies: 40
Views: 5640

It struck me as unrewardingly vague and shifty. On the rare occasions when he got specific about something (more bubbles recently because people are betting on a Singularity) I thought he did a poor job of supporting what he said. Why not posit that there are more bubbles recently just because the a...