Search found 1009 matches

by nps
Mon May 25, 2020 6:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Much should I fund my HSA and Why?
Replies: 28
Views: 5646

Re: How Much should I fund my HSA and Why?

Another vote for Maxing HSA after contributing to the match for employer 401k. If your fed tax bracket is 25% and state 5%, you are saving 37.5% on any contributions (due to circumventing FICA). That is what they call "the magic"..... Also, very easy to find a low cost investment provider and roll ...
by nps
Wed May 20, 2020 12:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Safely disinfecting frozen food packages from corona virus?
Replies: 51
Views: 3552

Re: Safely disinfecting frozen food packages from corona virus?

You could do what this guy did (start around 10:30)
by nps
Fri May 15, 2020 5:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: More to TSP or Taxable acct
Replies: 21
Views: 1064

Re: More to TSP or Taxable acct

You're putting in after tax money in either case. One will grow tax free and have tax free distributions, the other will not. I don't see why taxable would be favored, unless you need that money sooner than you could access the Roth TSP?
by nps
Thu May 14, 2020 8:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CARES Act
Replies: 6
Views: 806

Re: CARES Act

You can do that without the CARES act. Do a $33,333 Roth conversion each of the next 3 years. Pay 1/3 of the tax (on a $100,000 conversion) each year. How about if under 59 1/2 with a husband and wife federal employees. Could each one (if qualified) pull 100K from their respective TSP accounts and ...
by nps
Wed May 13, 2020 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dentist charges $10 for PPE
Replies: 234
Views: 10750

Re: Dentist charges $10 for PPE

I don't know if this has been posted up above and apologize if it has, but here's an article in Market Watch today: Down toward the bottom, it says that the ADA has signed off on allowing dentists to charge $10 for PPE. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-really-the-wild-west-out-there-your-trip-...
by nps
Wed May 13, 2020 6:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally lowers APR on savings from 1.5% to 1.25%
Replies: 68
Views: 7853

Re: Ally lowers APR on savings from 1.5% to 1.25%

Waiting_for_Godot wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 5:06 am
I don't remember the name of the phenomenon, but in framing the change in money as an issue of loss aversion vs missing out on a gain, we tend to respond more strongly to the former.
It's simply called loss aversion. You got it.
by nps
Tue May 12, 2020 5:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Market vs. Limit Orders
Replies: 59
Views: 3575

Re: Market vs. Limit Orders

Open limit orders leave you exposed to better informed market participants who will pick off your order when they learn new information. Generally speaking, open limit orders should only be used by professional market makers--never by individual (or even institutional) investors. Could you explain ...
by nps
Sat May 09, 2020 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New era for TSP "I" Fund?
Replies: 119
Views: 17178

Re: New era for TSP "I" Fund?

Keep in mind that the current I fund already forms the bulk of a more complete total international index (about 2/3rds). It can be supplemented by emerging market, international small, and Canada/Korea (if desired) funds in an IRA or other non-TSP account to effectively provide a total international...
by nps
Fri May 08, 2020 5:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Percentage of savings to "prepping"?
Replies: 132
Views: 8259

Re: Percentage of savings to "prepping"?

grettman wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 3:28 pm
oldfort wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 3:09 pm
I can't tell if this post is sarcastic or not.
It’s clear to me it is a serious question. I think most people “prep” to some extent. Some more than others.
It is also the essence of the Boy Scout motto!
by nps
Thu May 07, 2020 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does a downturn begin? What is the market telling us?
Replies: 2
Views: 723

Re: How does a downturn begin? What is the market telling us?

Brofessor wrote:
Thu May 07, 2020 3:20 pm
If the majority of investors took this action it would manifest the actual dead cat bounce. As of today, this has not happened therefore the majority does not believe this is a dead cat bounce.
Market prices do not depend on what the majority of investors think or believe.
by nps
Thu May 07, 2020 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5583
Views: 478841

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Kookaburra Think about the absurdity of this scenario. The last time unemployment was this high, we were going into the Great Depression and the market was headed down to the tune of an 80+% drop and a down market that would last for years. What’s the difference? The Fed, and it’s unspoken 3rd mand...
by nps
Thu May 07, 2020 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Investment strategy from this point forward]
Replies: 50
Views: 2063

Re: Coronavirus economy

How sure are you that airlines, cruise lines, Disney will go lower and Amazon, Netflix will go higher?
by nps
Thu May 07, 2020 6:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Deceased received economic impact check
Replies: 25
Views: 1495

Re: Treasury wants stimulus payment to dead returned

[Merged into existing discussion -- mod oldcomputerguy] "The Treasury Department said Wednesday that people who received a stimulus payment on behalf someone who is deceased should return the money immediately. “A payment made to someone who died before receipt of the payment should be returned to ...
by nps
Thu May 07, 2020 6:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Southwest Airlines Points Discount Offer
Replies: 4
Views: 529

Re: Southwest Airlines Points Discount Offer

Not unless you just need a top off to complete a trip purchase. Otherwise I would save my money. They are not selling them below their value.
by nps
Wed May 06, 2020 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corona impact on Real Estate as a viable asset class
Replies: 16
Views: 1550

Re: Corona impact on Real Estate as a viable asset class

btenny wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 11:29 am
IMO few of these facts are priced into the stock market. Stocks are not cheap at current values. Goldman Sacks say we are in for a 40% drop from here.
I don't think they said that
by nps
Mon May 04, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you count the G fund as bonds or cash?
Replies: 19
Views: 1145

Re: Do you count the G fund as bonds or cash?

It has the return of a bond fund, and the risk of cash, so it can serve both purposes in your portfolio. In particular, if you want to hold cash for the next year's expenses in retirement, you can use the G fund safely and not need a money-market fund in your IRA. I think it'd be more accurate to s...
by nps
Mon May 04, 2020 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18785
Views: 2626438

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

The problem is: We don't know and I do not want to miss the boat when it leaves towards SP500 3'500... :annoyed I'm afraid that boat is docked right alongside the cruise ships and that neither will be heading out to sea any time soon. Carnival announced today it would begin resuming cruises startin...
by nps
Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch
Replies: 138
Views: 21559

Re: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch

How do I bonds compare with the TSP G fund? "The G Fund's investment objective is to produce a rate of return that is higher than inflation while avoiding exposure to credit (default) risk and market price fluctuations." "The G Fund is subject to inflation risk, or the possibility that your G Fund ...
by nps
Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18785
Views: 2626438

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

It took 10 trillion to pump up to 2018 prices. When SPX goes below 2000 they'll pump in another 10 trillion. King US dollar should be a lot higher but it's being swamped by all the pumping... everyone should own some gold & gold stocks. The significant increase in money supply over the last decade ...
by nps
Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please rate my stimulus check plan!
Replies: 19
Views: 1222

Re: Please rate my stimulus check plan!

megabad wrote:
Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:47 pm
Makes more sense to deduct capital losses from income if you are going to go that route.
Agree. If you sell with capital gains, your capital losses will first offset them (no change to AGI) instead of directly lowering AGI. Just watch out for wash sales.
by nps
Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Leaning towards EE Bond Purchase...
Replies: 36
Views: 2052

Re: Leaning towards EE Bond Purchase...

What happens if you dont redeem the EE bond by 30 years? What happens in year 31 and beyond? My understanding is that the bond will retain its value as of year 30. No additional interest is earned. So, don't let them age beyond 30 years. Regards, You'll realize the income at year 30 regardless for ...
by nps
Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Leaning towards EE Bond Purchase...
Replies: 36
Views: 2052

Re: Leaning towards EE Bond Purchase...

Do you have to redeem EE bonds in 20 years? Or can you hold them indefinitely? I would be 59 (assuming I am still alive) so probably still working and in a high tax bracket. Are they a better investment for someone in mid 40s? You can keep them for a total of 30 years. They go back to compounding a...
by nps
Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hold off on refi because of CARE act?
Replies: 4
Views: 662

Re: Hold off on refi because of CARE act?

Unknown33 wrote:
Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:37 am
Just seeing this... to clarify, i was referring to the ppp loan which expresses forgiveness for funds used as mortgage interest and utilities. I can find the wording if that sounds incorrect
Do you mean for your personal residence?
by nps
Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51588

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

SnowBog wrote:
Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:59 am
Wow, that is a long post. Could I try to distill down what you are saying? I think it is that price changes very close to your need for the money will bother you, even if your end-state value over the entire 20 years is more favorable than alternative investing approaches. Does that sum it up?
by nps
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: USO, the snake oil is changing its ingredients
Replies: 20
Views: 1832

Re: USO, the snake oil is changing its ingredients

I wonder what percentage of investors read the prospectus of etf's before putting their money up. I'm guilty myself, but it is an exercise of doing your due diligence. You wouldn't even have to do that. A simple web search on USO would have uncovered its structural downsides on major financial news...
by nps
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: USO, the snake oil is changing its ingredients
Replies: 20
Views: 1832

Re: USO, the snake oil is changing its ingredients

“To include various WTI contracts instead of just the front month.” Does this change anything? I bought into USO when I had no idea what it was. Do you know what it is now? To understand if something has changed or if it matters, seems to me you have to understand the thing in the first place.
by nps
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51588

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Gufomel wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:14 pm
visualguy wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:11 pm
Understood, but if you didn't have it, would you buy that 20% now?
What’s the difference between holding it now vs buying it now?
Capital gains?
by nps
Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: State bankruptcy and pensions
Replies: 14
Views: 1425

Re: State bankruptcy and pensions

Current law does not allow it. You may be talking about a proposed law.
by nps
Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Another tax loss harvest question
Replies: 28
Views: 1324

Re: Another tax loss harvest question

Last Friday, in my ROTH account, I sold all shares of VTSAX (Vanguard total stock market fund) , and today purchased SWTSX (SCHWAB Total Stock Market fund). Today, In my taxable account, I purchased VTI. If VTI goes down, can I sell it and purchase ITOT to TLH, or would I need to wait 30 days? I se...
by nps
Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8071

Re: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]

So what happens if someone shorted the oil market and simultaneously bought up the last 5% or so of available storage capacity in Cushing, Oklahoma. If someone had 5% of the storage capacity in Cushing, Oklahoma available for their use, they could make a nice one-time profit. But from what I am hea...
by nps
Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]
Replies: 154
Views: 8071

Re: [Oil futures price plummets, Bogleheads react]

So what happens if someone shorted the oil market and simultaneously bought up the last 5% or so of available storage capacity in Cushing, Oklahoma. If someone had 5% of the storage capacity in Cushing, Oklahoma available for their use, they could make a nice one-time profit. But from what I am hea...
by nps
Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Did I Royally [mess up] spending $450 on USO today? Bought at $3.84 a piece
Replies: 38
Views: 4976

Re: Did I Royally [mess up] spending $450 on USO today? Bought at $3.84 a piece

manuvns wrote:
Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:28 pm
i sold $1 puts expiring on may 15th and collected $12 . is it possible that USO can trade below $0 ?
It cannot. Not can its investors lose more than 100 percent of their investment.
by nps
Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Japan like "lost decades" possible in US and world stock market?
Replies: 82
Views: 8248

Re: Are Japan like "lost decades" possible in US and world stock market?

The problem with "they will find a way to prop it up / kick the can" arguments, is this assumes you can get something for nothing. The price of bail outs and avoiding pain is reduced growth. I do think what's happened recently has dragged the USA down to the level of everyone else. I am concerned t...
by nps
Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18785
Views: 2626438

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Pandemic, unemployment, oil. Next? Hopefully, equities. These valuations are pants-on-head. They seem pants on head because you are thinking short term whereas the markets are trying to price in future decades worth of profits Even if the the millions of market participants were logically trying to...
by nps
Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stimulus check - Help?!
Replies: 17
Views: 2091

Re: Stimulus check - Help?!

deltaneutral83 wrote:
Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:04 am
Has the govt determined they will use 2018 AGI if you have not filed for 2019? Not going to hit "submit" on 2019 because I want 2018 AGI but want to get 2019 in as soon as that's been determined.
Yes
by nps
Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Another tax loss harvest question
Replies: 28
Views: 1324

Re: Another tax loss harvest question

Can you please clarify if ALL shares are the ones just purchased yesterday, and not my entire VTI position? It wasn't clear from your OP if you had prior purchases. More specifically, any shares purchased within the 30 days prior to the sale date will be considered replacement shares and holding on...
by nps
Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why shouldn´t I buy oil futures now?
Replies: 92
Views: 7177

Re: Why shouldn´t I buy oil futures now?

westcoastnerd wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:35 pm
With the news today of negative oil prices for some delivery dates, how does the analysis in this thread look in retrospect?
It looks spot on to me. Is there something you disagree with?
by nps
Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Another tax loss harvest question
Replies: 28
Views: 1324

Re: Another tax loss harvest question

Can you please clarify if ALL shares are the ones just purchased yesterday, and not my entire VTI position? It wasn't clear from your OP if you had prior purchases. More specifically, any shares purchased within the 30 days prior to the sale date will be considered replacement shares and holding on...
by nps
Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Another tax loss harvest question
Replies: 28
Views: 1324

Re: Another tax loss harvest question

Last Friday, in my ROTH account, I sold all shares of VTSAX (Vanguard total stock market fund) , and today purchased SWTSX (SCHWAB Total Stock Market fund). Today, In my taxable account, I purchased VTI. If VTI goes down, can I sell it and purchase ITOT to TLH, or would I need to wait 30 days? You ...
by nps
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Price of oil has collapsed; how will this impact the economy?
Replies: 108
Views: 8254

Re: Price of oil has collapsed; how will this impact the economy?

BogleMelon wrote:
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:00 pm
What does it mean for crude oil to turn negative? Those who buy crude oil will buy it for free and get additional cash per barrel for it? :shock:
Assuming they have a place to store it
by nps
Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Price of oil has collapsed; how will this impact the economy?
Replies: 108
Views: 8254

Re: Price of oil has collapsed; how will this impact the economy?

How do these futures work so if I buy contract worth $5000 at 2 per barrel do I need to take delivery or is this just paper trading I just dont get how the physical delivery is handled. I thought people just buy and then sell for either profit or loss but nobody really takes the delivery ? These co...
by nps
Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Price of oil has collapsed; how will this impact the economy?
Replies: 108
Views: 8254

Re: Price of oil has collapsed; how will this impact the economy?

At 4.66 now.. can easily go to zero based on movements today. This is truly something amazing to watch. I'm sure a lot of money will be made on this (and of course lost). Any good primers out there on how to conceptually look at these front month futures and what $0 would mean? When do May futures ...
by nps
Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Price of oil has collapsed; how will this impact the economy?
Replies: 108
Views: 8254

Re: Price of oil has collapsed; how will this impact the economy?

Don't see why it couldn't (or shouldn't) go negative for May
by nps
Sat Apr 18, 2020 6:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: JPMorgan Chase Stops Accepting HELOC Applications Due to Coronavirus Uncertainty
Replies: 17
Views: 2097

Re: JPMorgan Chase Stops Accepting HELOC Applications Due to Coronavirus Uncertainty

Certainly food for thought for those who argue that HELOCs can serve as an emergency fund.
by nps
Sat Apr 18, 2020 6:02 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 72263

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I dunno why it seems impossible to deploy 10,000 people into hotspots to do contact tracing out of a population of 300M. We have a uniformed corps of medical personnel 6500 strong...not all HCW but a big percentage and you can’t pull out the ones already deployed. Also hundreds of thousands of cens...
by nps
Sat Apr 18, 2020 5:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1121
Views: 97010

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Were I you, I'd actually look at it like this: if you manage to convince a good number of Bogleheads (the biggest critics of such strategies) your timing strategy is legit -- you are on to something (See HEDGEFUNDIE's Excellent Adventure as an example of this). I agree with your premise but that's ...
by nps
Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1121
Views: 97010

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

This forum is FULL of market timers referencing strategies that have shown to produce comparable (and often far superior) returns as B&H, on a tax and risk adjusted basis. Can you point to a post on this forum that describes a strategy ahead of time and documents its results going forward beating B...
by nps
Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1121
Views: 97010

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

ValuationsMatter wrote:
Fri Apr 17, 2020 8:52 pm
What a convenient way to to avoid ever questioning your dogma. "No matter what happens, the only way to do it right is our way."
Is that quote you provided supposed to be attributed to someone?
by nps
Fri Apr 17, 2020 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1121
Views: 97010

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

When I successfully timed the market several weeks ago and mentioned it, I got practically crucified, and a long thread had to be shut down because it go so bad. More likely it was shut down because it was a thread you started based on a different timing strategy which you no longer updated. BHs ar...
by nps
Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Be wary of taking any capital gains.
Replies: 8
Views: 1069

Re: Be wary of taking any capital gains.

This will be locked but you should really study up on the incredible number of bills that get introduced in Congress. Almost none of them become law.