Search found 344 matches

by raven15
Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debunking Bonds in Taxable
Replies: 99
Views: 10378

Re: Debunking Bonds in Taxable

There are so many great options that are best or only available in taxable space such as account signup bonuses, i-bonds, and VWALX/VWAHX that I see no need for the ordinary options here or regret for holding bonds in taxable. A small portion of treasuries in tax sheltered accounts for rebalancing ...
by raven15
Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debunking Bonds in Taxable
Replies: 99
Views: 10378

Re: Debunking Bonds in Taxable

Some other consideration.. if you have to invest bonds on taxable.. use treasuries. They give you the lowest yield (less taxes) and counter-balance better stocks (don't get corporate bonds or high yield bonds). There are so many great options that are best or only available in taxable space such as...
by raven15
Tue Oct 30, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debunking Bonds in Taxable
Replies: 99
Views: 10378

Re: Debunking Bonds in Taxable

Some other consideration.. if you have to invest bonds on taxable.. use treasuries. They give you the lowest yield (less taxes) and counter-balance better stocks (don't get corporate bonds or high yield bonds). There are so many great options that are best or only available in taxable space such as...
by raven15
Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debunking Bonds in Taxable
Replies: 99
Views: 10378

Re: Debunking Bonds in Taxable

I personally won't do it because I may not want to wait till retirement to use may taxable funds. Right. That's my reason for keeping most of the bonds in taxable space, and you are first to mention it. Money is not fungible, there is a 10% penalty to take it out of tax-disadvantaged accounts. I ha...
by raven15
Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debunking Bonds in Taxable
Replies: 99
Views: 10378

Re: Debunking Bonds in Taxable

But under what circumstances will you need $50K in a short time? That is more than the typical emergency fund, which you use to deal with things such as roof replacements and medical bills. If you need to replace a car, you can take out a loan, and pay it back quickly (say by reducing your 401(k) c...
by raven15
Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debunking Bonds in Taxable
Replies: 99
Views: 10378

Re: Debunking Bonds in Taxable

I personally won't do it because I may not want to wait till retirement to use may taxable funds. Right. That's my reason for keeping most of the bonds in taxable space, and you are first to mention it. Money is not fungible, there is a 10% penalty to take it out of tax-disadvantaged accounts. I ha...
by raven15
Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debunking Bonds in Taxable
Replies: 99
Views: 10378

Re: Debunking Bonds in Taxable

I personally won't do it because I may not want to wait till retirement to use may taxable funds. Right. That's my reason for keeping most of the bonds in taxable space, and you are first to mention it. Money is not fungible, there is a 10% penalty to take it out of tax-disadvantaged accounts. I ha...
by raven15
Sun Oct 28, 2018 2:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 105853

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

The US has never had a long run period of 30 years or more with lower than 6% annualized. International stocks have gone lower than 5%. There is honestly something fundamentally wrong with non US stocks as a whole but I don’t know what. BeeebooooBeeebooooBeeeboooo As Bill Bernstein might say, consi...
by raven15
Sun Oct 28, 2018 2:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Averaging, IRR Bias/Misconception: Have we been misled?
Replies: 3
Views: 938

Re: Value Averaging, IRR Bias/Misconception: Have we been misled?

I've been doing Value Averaging since I started doing investments over a decade ago. I like VA for two reasons vs conventional DCA + rebalancing: 1) I can save towards a final "retirement number" which I can control. 2) I like the idea of methodically "buying low and selling high", because it shoul...
by raven15
Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 99
Views: 8702

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

I read and own it. The first chapter is great investment reading and I highly recommend it. The next chapters are more of a take down of active management which will not really be useful to long time bogleheads.
by raven15
Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better to invest in taxable and not deferred?
Replies: 31
Views: 3147

Re: Better to invest in taxable and not deferred?

Nope, it is never Better. If you think your income tax rate will be higher now than retirement, then defer taxes. If you think your income tax rate will be higher in retirement, then use Roth-type shelters. Either way an HSA is your friend. Else you will pay taxes on ordinary dividends and other peo...
by raven15
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate Treasuries ETF - SCHR vs VSIGX?
Replies: 4
Views: 425

Re: Intermediate Treasuries ETF - SCHR vs VSIGX?

I now remember that we concluded VSIGX (a.k.a. VGIT) is ever so slightly preferable.

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=221614&p=3420832&h ... R#p3420832
by raven15
Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert
Replies: 80
Views: 5380

Re: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert

Great. Diversification is dead. So we are all free to put our money into whatever will have the best returns and there will be no consequences. Yay!
by raven15
Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Opinions and experiences with Verizon Prepaid?
Replies: 14
Views: 1099

Re: Opinions and experiences with Verizon Prepaid?

I perused the coverage map and see I will spend a day or two this week in a location which is marked post-paid Verizon yes, pre-paid Verizon no! Unfortunately I need both voice and data for work those days so I can't experiment, I will delay switching to Verizon until after I am done with that locat...
by raven15
Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Opinions and experiences with Verizon Prepaid?
Replies: 14
Views: 1099

Re: Opinions and experiences with Verizon Prepaid?

BeneIRA wrote:
Sat Aug 18, 2018 2:21 pm
The cost for 3GB a month of data that rolls over is great, especially for such a great network.
The 2GB/mo rollover is admittedly pretty great also, I have no fear of running out of data with this plan.
by raven15
Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Opinions and experiences with Verizon Prepaid?
Replies: 14
Views: 1099

Re: Opinions and experiences with Verizon Prepaid?

Thanks for the replies. I probably should have searched reddit instead of bogleheads I now see! Post paid is looking like the way to go to me, just need the parents to realize they rarely visit crowded places and use little data so being throttled a little will not be an issue for $100 a month savin...
by raven15
Sat Aug 18, 2018 1:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Opinions and experiences with Verizon Prepaid?
Replies: 14
Views: 1099

Opinions and experiences with Verizon Prepaid?

Bogleheads seems like a good place for this. The spouse recently switched to Verizon Prepaid and I will be joining shortly. We have been bouncing around a couple MVNOs but getting tired of poor coverage of ATT and Sprint/Tmobile combined with "we don't work nights by Eastern time or weekends any tim...
by raven15
Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does total stock market invest in dying companies like sears?
Replies: 7
Views: 1045

Re: Does total stock market invest in dying companies like sears?

Absolutely. Those are "small cap value" companies. They are all the rage.
by raven15
Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 78
Views: 5887

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

The two that matter to me are: accumulation stage - shortest and most reliable expected median time to meet saving objective at given saving rate Shortest = all stocks Most reliable = likely a mix of some stocks and mostly bonds withdrawal stage - maximum expected safe withdrawal rate Depending on ...
by raven15
Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 78
Views: 5887

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

Better look at returns and standard deviation and other metrics as distinct quantities. The two that matter to me are: accumulation stage - shortest and most reliable expected median time to meet saving objective at given saving rate withdrawal stage - maximum expected safe withdrawal rate The othe...
by raven15
Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 78
Views: 5887

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/efficient-frontier?s=y&type=1&mode=1&startYear=1979&endYear=2018&fromOrigin=false&asset1=IntermediateTreasury&allocation1_1=50&asset2=TotalStockMarket&allocation2_1=25&asset3=HighYield&allocation3_1=25 It looks like the tangent portfolio was about 60% intermediate...
by raven15
Thu May 17, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 4997

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

I understand that when you retire, you still have many years to go, but I wouldn't think I'd be ok with LT bonds at that point. Maybe I would with a smaller portion. Right now BLV (VBLTX, VG LT bond fund) has a duration of 14.9 years. If you had 30 years till retirement when would you stop buying t...
by raven15
Wed May 16, 2018 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 4997

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

OK... so you are saying that longer term bonds did better than shorter term bonds, but actually longer term did worse because if instead you had invested in mostly cash you would have done worse than shorter term bonds. It's all starting to make sense... :confused Do you understand risk-adjusted re...
by raven15
Wed May 16, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 4997

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

I'm talking about relative value. If you had owned 10yr treasuries in 2007 as you suggested was a good idea, you'd have been better off selling them and buying 2yr treasuries instead. That's what the graph I showed says. So, if we presuppose something "has" to give, why would we think it has to be ...
by raven15
Wed May 16, 2018 2:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can a <median household save 1 year of expenses every year?
Replies: 158
Views: 9897

Re: On the topic of Saving vs Savings

Bogleheads: We seem to be getting tripped up on a semantic point: not all saving results in an increase in savings . In fact they even have different units, as expected befitting their different parts of speech. Savings is a stock, an accumulated surplus of wealth. Saving is a rate, a flow, of exce...
by raven15
Wed May 16, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 4997

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

raven15 wrote: Yield curves were flat in 2007 too. Even flatter in fact. Did 2007 turn out to be a bad time to buy long term government debt? IMO the main purpose of bonds in a portfolio is stabilization of volatility from the equity side. Vanguard's Long Term Treasury Bond Fund is down 6.92% YTD. ...
by raven15
Wed May 16, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 4997

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=jRj9 If you had bought 2yr treasuries and sold 10yr treasuries (in duration-weighted proportion), you'd have done very well from 2007-2009. When would you have bought the ten year treasuries you are selling? I'm talking about relative value. If you had owned 10y...
by raven15
Wed May 16, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can a <median household save 1 year of expenses every year?
Replies: 158
Views: 9897

Re: Can a <median household save 1 year of expenses every year?

Paying off student debt absolutely counts as saving. A student loan can be modeled as a negative bond; of course, one could direct their savings there or elsewhere. Net worth increases just the same (likely better with high interest rate loans). Significant judicial error is already present here. P...
by raven15
Wed May 16, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 4997

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

Yield curves were flat in 2007 too. Even flatter in fact. Did 2007 turn out to be a bad time to buy long term government debt? Relative to short/intermediate term government debt? Yes. Evidence? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=jRj9 If you had bought 2yr treasuries and sold 10yr treasuries (in ...
by raven15
Wed May 16, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can a <median household save 1 year of expenses every year?
Replies: 158
Views: 9897

Re: Can a <median household save 1 year of expenses every year?

$900 rent (2 bedroom apartment) Notable exceptions: > We do have a car, but we walk to work and could walk, bike or take public transit to get groceries, so I've excluded car maintenance, insurance and replacement from this. > I haven't accounted for state income tax, so I'm effectively assuming th...
by raven15
Wed May 16, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can a <median household save 1 year of expenses every year?
Replies: 158
Views: 9897

Re: Can a <median household save 1 year of expenses every year?

how do you find a place with public transport without having good tax base and/or HCOL? They don't build shiny new subway system in Dumbfolk, MT do they? No good public transportation in LCOL areas I know of. But it is easier to find a town with a walkable core than it is in the infinite sprawl of ...
by raven15
Wed May 16, 2018 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 4997

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

GodelianKnot wrote:
Wed May 16, 2018 8:51 am
raven15 wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 8:49 pm
Yield curves were flat in 2007 too. Even flatter in fact. Did 2007 turn out to be a bad time to buy long term government debt?
Relative to short/intermediate term government debt? Yes.
Evidence?
by raven15
Wed May 16, 2018 1:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can a <median household save 1 year of expenses every year?
Replies: 158
Views: 9897

Re: Can a <median household save 1 year of expenses every year?

$900 rent (2 bedroom apartment) Notable exceptions: > We do have a car, but we walk to work and could walk, bike or take public transit to get groceries, so I've excluded car maintenance, insurance and replacement from this. > I haven't accounted for state income tax, so I'm effectively assuming th...
by raven15
Tue May 15, 2018 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 4997

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

Good idea investing now in long term funds? No. With a yield curve that is almost flat the risk/reward tradeoff is not favorable for increasing bond duration at present IMO. Historically speaking we're still in a very low rate environment. The point to increase duration risk is not when short term ...
by raven15
Tue May 15, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?
Replies: 27
Views: 1894

Re: Would you be willing to temporarily change your AA?

dkturner wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 12:54 pm
I couldn’t pull the trigger and rebalance into equities in late 2018 or early 2019 either.
I see your point. I haven't been able to do that myself.


First!
by raven15
Thu Mar 22, 2018 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m looking for a word...
Replies: 114
Views: 10766

Re: I’m looking for a word...

A thousand people trying to corner water in a swimming pool. If they move where the water is, they displace it and the water moves somewhere else. If too many people get in they'll push all the water right out of the pool.
by raven15
Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Minimum % for a "tilt" to matter in portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1504

Re: Minimum % for a "tilt" to matter in portfolio

The correlation and volatility of the proposed tilt matter. Tilting VTI 10% towards VBR may only have a modest impact. However, put that same 10% into a gold miner equity fund instead and it will look like an extreme, scary, and questionable tilt. Gold mine stocks have low correlation to the broader...
by raven15
Sat Mar 10, 2018 2:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early Retiree Portfolio
Replies: 4
Views: 975

Re: Early Retiree Portfolio

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/09/13/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-19-equity-glidepaths/ This is a good resource for the basic outline. You'll want about 45% US stocks, 30% international stocks, and 25% bonds for an optimal early retiree static portfolio assuming past history...
by raven15
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 19981

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

Since we are all making up our own definitions of cash I 'll add mine. Cash is risk free in nominal terms and I can spend it in Walmart within the hour. Everything else is investments. Love it, nice and simple. So if I can get "it" out of an ATM machine that counts as cash too? And I count my T-Bil...
by raven15
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab Intelligent Portfolio vs. Schwab Target Fund
Replies: 92
Views: 11603

Re: Schwab Intelligent Portfolio vs. Schwab Target Fund

I also found the following issue at https://thefinancebuff.com/schwab-intelligent-portfolios-the-true-cost-of-a-cash-drag.html#comments - in the comments section. (Only 18 comments): "Actually, it is a two-time cost: at buy AND sell time. Depending on your holding horizon, it could be significant. ...
by raven15
Fri Mar 09, 2018 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash
Replies: 178
Views: 19981

Re: Is Cash Trash? The Purpose of Cash

Since we are all making up our own definitions of cash I 'll add mine. Cash is risk free in nominal terms and I can spend it in Walmart within the hour. Everything else is investments.
by raven15
Fri Mar 09, 2018 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 26637

Re: Why International again?

here's a good reason: it's called the "randomness of global equity returns" page 40 of the DFA matrix book 2017: https://www.ifa.com/pdf/matrix%20book%202017.pdf https://s13.postimg.org/75j8swgjb/Capture2.jpg what do you see? That's right. The good 'ol USA was only the top dog once since 1997 (in 2...
by raven15
Thu Mar 08, 2018 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 26637

Re: Why International again?

Speaking for myself, I just typed all the funds I invest in into Morningstar and was surprised that over my time frame the top three have been international funds, with Vanguard midcap coming in 4th. If I had been invested only in USA I would have less money.
by raven15
Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bogleheads.org" by Kristine Hayes"
Replies: 60
Views: 9709

Re: "Bogleheads.org" by Kristine Hayes"

Interesting article. But if I had to type real estate investment trust, you would literally have to pay me by the hour to post here.
by raven15
Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Treasury Bond Fund/ETF for Taxable Accounts
Replies: 17
Views: 3068

Re: Best Treasury Bond Fund/ETF for Taxable Accounts

I accidentally started a knock down drag out thread about this after forgetting how to use morningstar. It ended up being a better discussion than it should have. Anyhow, the conclusion was that SCHR is the intermediate treasury bond champion. Are you referring to this thread ? I don't see the cons...
by raven15
Thu Feb 15, 2018 1:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Treasury Bond Fund/ETF for Taxable Accounts
Replies: 17
Views: 3068

Re: Best Treasury Bond Fund/ETF for Taxable Accounts

I accidentally started a knock down drag out thread about this after forgetting how to use morningstar. It ended up being a better discussion than it should have.

Anyhow, the conclusion was that SCHR is the intermediate treasury bond champion.
by raven15
Thu Feb 15, 2018 1:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do American Funds hold so much cash?
Replies: 8
Views: 1410

Re: Why do American Funds hold so much cash?

They need a lot of liquidity to fund the departures of investors leaving for Vanguard once they realize American Funds is like a negative pressure pipe in atmospheric pressure.
by raven15
Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keep your eye on the owner, not the dog
Replies: 31
Views: 5362

Re: Keep your eye on the owner, not the dog

Just passing along this quote believed to be from Ralph Wagoner, as recalled by Bill Bernstein: "He likens the market to an excitable dog on a very long leash in New York City, darting randomly in every direction. The dog's owner is walking from Columbus Circle, through Central Park, to the Metropo...
by raven15
Sun Jan 28, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using CAPE to time market- timing?
Replies: 23
Views: 1856

Re: Using CAPE to time market- timing?

Don't to anything drastic. I thought that maybe you could set your bond percentage equal to CAPE during an annual or less often rebalance. So right now bonds would be at 35%. That doesn't take into account bond yields though. Another might be to weight stocks and bonds according to epected returns: ...
by raven15
Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High volatility/returns (SC,EM) for young investors ?
Replies: 11
Views: 1014

Re: High volatility/returns (SC,EM) for young investors ?

Yeah, sure, in theory. 50% VBR, 20% VWO, 20% SCHC, 10% EDV. The real struggle is psychological when the allocation occasionally crashes and burns!