Search found 382 matches

by raven15
Fri Sep 20, 2019 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Extended Duration Funds
Replies: 1
Views: 244

Re: Extended Duration Funds

I use ZROZ but that's because there are no trading fees on it in my employer's Schwab retirement account. Reasons to prefer EDV: More assets under management Lower fees Probably gets a little more capital appreciation from the yield curve - zero coupon bonds typically seem to have flat or even inver...
by raven15
Thu Sep 19, 2019 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Would Vanguard Total World Have Behaved During the Japanese Bubble/Crash
Replies: 20
Views: 2158

Re: How Would Vanguard Total World Have Behaved During the Japanese Bubble/Crash

https://portfoliocharts.com/charts/
You can select Japan in any one of those backtesters. International WLD TSM here means world stock index.
by raven15
Fri May 03, 2019 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets
Replies: 44
Views: 2821

Re: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets

Are there any other longtime dollar cost average buyers questioning putting their biweekly savings into such a highly valued market where both stocks and bonds seem to have nothing but downside risk? If so, what's your plan? Wait you are afraid of dollar cost averaging ? Stop right there like you s...
by raven15
Wed Mar 06, 2019 1:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 205
Views: 53680

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

What about SGOL (Aberdeen Standard Physical Swiss Gold Shares), at 0.17% expense ratio, in place of IAU?

Fewer assets under management, but has had stable AUM for as long as I recall (which is since 2013 when I joined my employer retirement plan where it had no-fee trades).
by raven15
Wed Jan 23, 2019 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock for U.S. retirees?
Replies: 19
Views: 2032

Re: How much international stock for U.S. retirees?

Restating what Svensk Anga said in different words. It doesn't really matter what currency you use. What matters is how much money you have relative to your expenses. The dollar can fluctuate relative to your real cost of living, as can your investments. What you will want is low volatility and high...
by raven15
Sun Jan 20, 2019 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actionable information in order to invest in physical gold
Replies: 25
Views: 1499

Re: Actionable information in order to invest in physical gold

There was lots of actionable information in this thread, starting part way down the first page:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=234480
by raven15
Sun Jan 20, 2019 3:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF "Guarantee"
Replies: 39
Views: 2799

Re: Gold ETF "Guarantee"

I always thought they had done backtesting and found 2% inflation gave the best growth characteristics. 2% inflation implies that a small amount of liquidity is consistently being added to the system, which greases the wheels and keeps the money flowing to all the people who need it. With a gold bas...
by raven15
Fri Jan 18, 2019 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF "Guarantee"
Replies: 39
Views: 2799

Re: Gold ETF "Guarantee"

I've been reading "Big Debt Crises" by Ray Dalio. I have definitely been getting the impression that paper gold is just as valuable as real paper and electronic gold is just as valuable as real electrons. If you find yourself owning gold that is a few protons short and you suspect a crisis is coming...
by raven15
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Visualizer and Vanguard Investor Tickers
Replies: 7
Views: 1890

Re: Portfolio Visualizer and Vanguard Investor Tickers

TL/DR Where does one find the ticker for a closed-to-new-investors Investor class Vanguard fund?? google "vanguard fundname investor shares" has worked for me so far. The corporate and government bond index funds didn't open until 2009 and never had investor shares, so you won't find those, period....
by raven15
Fri Jan 18, 2019 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 974
Views: 76995

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

@willthrill I have two snarky comments. First, I remember when you first started posting here. First you were all about gold and how amazing it was. Then you thought small cap value was the hot asset, but just after that you determined mid cap value was the bees knees. Then I stopped reading for a ...
by raven15
Fri Jan 18, 2019 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 974
Views: 76995

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

@willthrill I have two snarky comments. First, I remember when you first started posting here. First you were all about gold and how amazing it was. Then you thought small cap value was the hot asset, but just after that you determined mid cap value was the bees knees. Then I stopped reading for a f...
by raven15
Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Microcap add diversification to Total Stock Market Index fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 2062

Re: Does Microcap add diversification to Total Stock Market Index fund?

I just shudder at that ER though. I hold my nose and tolerate that type of ER in my wife’s 401k because they match up to a certain percentage every year, and, I have no choice. I am in total agreement. is a small-cap-value factor bet that will pay off if it acts like the FF variety. That might take...
by raven15
Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Microcap add diversification to Total Stock Market Index fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 2062

Re: Does Microcap add diversification to Total Stock Market Index fund?

As far as I know BRSIX doesn't require an adviser. It is available in my fidelity brokeragelink in my 403b. The point about fees is definitely relevant in any case and there really are no cheap options in this space. The etfs are kinda expensive and there are some legitimate concerns about index tr...
by raven15
Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Microcap add diversification to Total Stock Market Index fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 2062

Re: Does Microcap add diversification to Total Stock Market Index fund?

Here is a history of micro through merely smallish cap funds since the most recent two were founded. If diversification is how often each fund crosses the lines of the others, then RZV seems to offer the greatest diversification. Which is not necessarily an endorsement. My other huge concern is cost...
by raven15
Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 430
Views: 46527

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

I remember thinking this through back when the thread was in vogue. I pictured three different ending interest scenarios after 20 years: general bond rates end up much higher than now, rates end up about the same as now, and they end up much lower than now. For each, rates can either go much higher ...
by raven15
Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguards recommends investors to increase international (non-US) stock holdings to 40% ?
Replies: 128
Views: 13937

Re: Vanguards recommends investors to increase international (non-US) stock holdings to 40% ?

I think holding international stocks is dangerous when one wants to retire spending US dollars. Why add forex risk to the equation? Forex exposure has generally reduced risk, with 25% of total allocation or 35% of stock allocation being the lowest risk overall historically. Put those together and y...
by raven15
Mon Dec 24, 2018 5:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was your best investment in 2018?
Replies: 127
Views: 8219

Re: What was your best investment in 2018?

Wife went to nursing school. All in $5,000 per year tuition and fees et cetera, and as soon as she graduated this spring she made as much as me but with two more weeks off per year and better health insurance. Ka-ching!
by raven15
Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3-Fund + Gold: Why not a good idea?
Replies: 42
Views: 3480

Re: 3-Fund + Gold: Why not a good idea?

Tools to test this out: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2753812#p2753812 https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio Oh, excellent :) What symbol should I use for Gold please? Tools to test this out: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2753812#p2753812 https...
by raven15
Sun Dec 16, 2018 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova
Replies: 117
Views: 18146

Re: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova

Right, but by combining the data for all earthquakes around the world you are losing the "sequence matters" idea because globally they are reasonably independent of each other. Both San Francisco and the S&P500 are more likely to go 10 years without a major shock than what that method would indicate...
by raven15
Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova
Replies: 117
Views: 18146

Re: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova

Right, but that's the entire point that you missed. Hi raven15, I'm not 100% sure what I've missed :happy As I said in my last sentence, the model assumptions do not seem to be particularly good ones. What I disagreed with is simply your earlier assertion that noticing a chart "results in a bell cu...
by raven15
Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So Much Red [in cost basis of taxable accounts]
Replies: 26
Views: 2709

Re: So Much Red [in cost basis of taxable accounts]

Yup, it's always like that when I haven't read bogleheads recently. The posts only turn black after you read them.
by raven15
Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova
Replies: 117
Views: 18146

Re: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova

-The fact that it results in a bell curve makes it especially obvious that it is a poor technique when trying to make inferences about events that supposedly should have only a tiny chance of occurring. While I agree that there are issues with the article, this is not one of them. The plots in the ...
by raven15
Sun Dec 09, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Attic insulation-R30 to R60 worth it?
Replies: 33
Views: 5483

Re: Attic insulation-R30 to R60 worth it?

I did some DIY insulation and air sealing in my house five years ago along with a programmable thermostat. The starting point was R19 and exposed studs, added R30. A town in the Western US with a totally different climate but similar heating degree days to Chicago. My heating bill went down by about...
by raven15
Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 372
Views: 64138

Re: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!

Why do you want to shorten your duration? The only correct answer is you have grown old and your investing horizon has shortened below EDV's duration, and so holding an ultra-long bond fund no longer suits your needs. And if this were the case, you would have seen significant total return from the ...
by raven15
Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question: When Bubbles Burst, Do Asset Prices Go Below Instrinsic Value?
Replies: 14
Views: 1658

Re: Question: When Bubbles Burst, Do Asset Prices Go Below Instrinsic Value?

I wonder how far bitcoin will drop before it meets its intrinsic value! :confused
by raven15
Wed Dec 05, 2018 12:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why Is Insurance Worth It (Analytically)?
Replies: 89
Views: 4711

Re: Why Is Insurance Worth It (Analytically)?

It is because the costs of economic disasters do not follow a normal distribution. They are like the distribution of economic wealth in a society, earthquakes, and financial crises, with a few tail cases one one side constituting a significant portion of the total damage. Most (of the time) people w...
by raven15
Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally Invest (Up To $3500 Offer)
Replies: 9
Views: 2735

Re: Ally Invest (Up To $3500 Offer)

That's supposed to be a good deal worth making an account decision over? That's 0.175% of 2 Million. My eyebrow would hardly raise. Agreed, you would be losing money. Keep it parked earning a paltry 2% and you get over $3K per month. Yes, but the idea would be to use the ETF's to earn your normal m...
by raven15
Tue Dec 04, 2018 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova
Replies: 117
Views: 18146

Re: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova

It's worth pointing out that enjoying the gains from stocks has required that one endures long periods where stocks are dead money, in terms of gains above those realized by holding cash (T-bills). Beginning in 1972, you had dead money in stocks for about 14 years. Then came a period of gains that ...
by raven15
Mon Dec 03, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money Weighted returns better for lower volatility assets
Replies: 2
Views: 326

Re: Money Weighted returns better for lower volatility assets

As I was looking through my historic data, I noticed that many higher volatility investments such as SCV, EM, Intl are having lower money weighted returns compared to their time weighted returns. This piqued my interest further to look up other investments that are lower volatility, and I found tha...
by raven15
Mon Dec 03, 2018 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did the bond market lose money this year
Replies: 39
Views: 3806

Re: Why did the bond market lose money this year

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Sat Dec 01, 2018 5:28 pm
Not to be smug or anything, but when I put together my portfolio in 2007 (starting from a position of significant ignorance) I read several books and online sources on investing. All explained what bonds are, what bond funds are, and how the two behave with rising or falling interest rates.
+1
by raven15
Mon Dec 03, 2018 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve = Inverted
Replies: 58
Views: 6785

Re: Yield Curve = Inverted

*yawns*
*hits snooze*
Tell me when the 30 day yield exceeds the 30 year yield.
by raven15
Sun Dec 02, 2018 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally CC Offer
Replies: 35
Views: 3801

Re: Ally CC Offer

I qualified for an AmEx 100k point bonus on 5k (rare bird) which will be 25% of 5k down the road when I dump it into Schwab for 1.25 multiplier. Question: can you get bonuses for both regular AmEx Platinum and Schwab AmEx Platinum? Yes. Hopefully it stays like that for a year or two so I can make a...
by raven15
Sun Dec 02, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally CC Offer
Replies: 35
Views: 3801

Re: Ally CC Offer

Don't get the Ally credit card. The rewards are not competitive. Get a 2% card from Citi, Fidelity, PenFed, or Alliant. So, a 20% reward isn't competitive? Certainly not. The most publicized card on BofA is 200 back on 500 (probably the same gas card mentioned above) and the world is full of 150 ba...
by raven15
Fri Nov 30, 2018 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova
Replies: 117
Views: 18146

Re: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova

Look at those beautiful normal distributions! I think Mandelbrot would write a chapter about the flaws in that piece. Your point only AMPLIFIES the author’s points. Add left skew and fat tails to the implications of the essay, and thinks look worse. Dave :wink: Or it AMPLIFIES that you need to brus...
by raven15
Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova
Replies: 117
Views: 18146

Re: The S&P 500 Goes Supernova

Look at those beautiful normal distributions! I think Mandelbrot would write a chapter about the flaws in that piece.
by raven15
Thu Nov 29, 2018 2:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confused - Seems California Muni ETF is worse than National Muni ETF
Replies: 5
Views: 997

Re: Confused - Seems California Muni ETF is worse than National Muni ETF

My understanding is the expense ratio is taken out of the yield, so I think you are double counting. 0.18% of the yield difference should already be the extra expenses.
by raven15
Fri Nov 23, 2018 1:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you need to invest mostly in stocks to get rich?
Replies: 178
Views: 18249

Re: Do you need to invest mostly in stocks to get rich?

If you use Portfolio Charts you can test all of the intervals simultaneously and avoid most obvious cherry picking. Open two tabs side by side on a PC and compare away.
https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/my-portfolio/
by raven15
Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debunking Bonds in Taxable
Replies: 143
Views: 15243

Re: Debunking Bonds in Taxable

There are so many great options that are best or only available in taxable space such as account signup bonuses, i-bonds, and VWALX/VWAHX that I see no need for the ordinary options here or regret for holding bonds in taxable. A small portion of treasuries in tax sheltered accounts for rebalancing ...
by raven15
Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debunking Bonds in Taxable
Replies: 143
Views: 15243

Re: Debunking Bonds in Taxable

Some other consideration.. if you have to invest bonds on taxable.. use treasuries. They give you the lowest yield (less taxes) and counter-balance better stocks (don't get corporate bonds or high yield bonds). There are so many great options that are best or only available in taxable space such as...
by raven15
Tue Oct 30, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debunking Bonds in Taxable
Replies: 143
Views: 15243

Re: Debunking Bonds in Taxable

Some other consideration.. if you have to invest bonds on taxable.. use treasuries. They give you the lowest yield (less taxes) and counter-balance better stocks (don't get corporate bonds or high yield bonds). There are so many great options that are best or only available in taxable space such as...
by raven15
Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debunking Bonds in Taxable
Replies: 143
Views: 15243

Re: Debunking Bonds in Taxable

I personally won't do it because I may not want to wait till retirement to use may taxable funds. Right. That's my reason for keeping most of the bonds in taxable space, and you are first to mention it. Money is not fungible, there is a 10% penalty to take it out of tax-disadvantaged accounts. I ha...
by raven15
Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debunking Bonds in Taxable
Replies: 143
Views: 15243

Re: Debunking Bonds in Taxable

But under what circumstances will you need $50K in a short time? That is more than the typical emergency fund, which you use to deal with things such as roof replacements and medical bills. If you need to replace a car, you can take out a loan, and pay it back quickly (say by reducing your 401(k) c...
by raven15
Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debunking Bonds in Taxable
Replies: 143
Views: 15243

Re: Debunking Bonds in Taxable

I personally won't do it because I may not want to wait till retirement to use may taxable funds. Right. That's my reason for keeping most of the bonds in taxable space, and you are first to mention it. Money is not fungible, there is a 10% penalty to take it out of tax-disadvantaged accounts. I ha...
by raven15
Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debunking Bonds in Taxable
Replies: 143
Views: 15243

Re: Debunking Bonds in Taxable

I personally won't do it because I may not want to wait till retirement to use may taxable funds. Right. That's my reason for keeping most of the bonds in taxable space, and you are first to mention it. Money is not fungible, there is a 10% penalty to take it out of tax-disadvantaged accounts. I ha...
by raven15
Sun Oct 28, 2018 2:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 117302

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

The US has never had a long run period of 30 years or more with lower than 6% annualized. International stocks have gone lower than 5%. There is honestly something fundamentally wrong with non US stocks as a whole but I don’t know what. BeeebooooBeeebooooBeeeboooo As Bill Bernstein might say, consi...
by raven15
Sun Oct 28, 2018 2:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Averaging, IRR Bias/Misconception: Have we been misled?
Replies: 3
Views: 1086

Re: Value Averaging, IRR Bias/Misconception: Have we been misled?

I've been doing Value Averaging since I started doing investments over a decade ago. I like VA for two reasons vs conventional DCA + rebalancing: 1) I can save towards a final "retirement number" which I can control. 2) I like the idea of methodically "buying low and selling high", because it shoul...
by raven15
Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 123
Views: 13632

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

I read and own it. The first chapter is great investment reading and I highly recommend it. The next chapters are more of a take down of active management which will not really be useful to long time bogleheads.
by raven15
Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better to invest in taxable and not deferred?
Replies: 31
Views: 3465

Re: Better to invest in taxable and not deferred?

Nope, it is never Better. If you think your income tax rate will be higher now than retirement, then defer taxes. If you think your income tax rate will be higher in retirement, then use Roth-type shelters. Either way an HSA is your friend. Else you will pay taxes on ordinary dividends and other peo...
by raven15
Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate Treasuries ETF - SCHR vs VSIGX?
Replies: 4
Views: 659

Re: Intermediate Treasuries ETF - SCHR vs VSIGX?

I now remember that we concluded VSIGX (a.k.a. VGIT) is ever so slightly preferable.

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=221614&p=3420832&h ... R#p3420832