Search found 1176 matches
- Sat Feb 24, 2024 8:14 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
- Replies: 221
- Views: 13743
Re: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
For all the kids reading this market timing strategy... don't try it at home. It’s NOT a market timing strategy. Stocks can go up at a very high annual return from here for the next ten years. I am not timing the market by tilting away from Mag 7 stocks. Reducing concentration risk by diversifying is NOT timing the market. What you're doing is the definition of market timing. Also, you are reducing diversification, getting more diversified. How is diversifying the same as market timing? Bogleheads promote diversification by adding bonds and international stocks. I want to diversify by reducing concentration within the S&P 500. Changing your asset allocation based on current market conditions is market timing. Changing your allocation f...
- Sat Feb 24, 2024 7:58 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
- Replies: 221
- Views: 13743
Re: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
What you're doing is the definition of market timing. Also, you are reducing diversification, getting more diversified.smartinvestor2020 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 24, 2024 7:46 amIt’s NOT a market timing strategy.dogagility wrote: ↑Sat Feb 24, 2024 6:04 am For all the kids reading this market timing strategy... don't try it at home.
Stocks can go up at a very high annual return from here for the next ten years.
I am not timing the market by tilting away from Mag 7 stocks.
Reducing concentration risk by diversifying is NOT timing the market.
- Tue Feb 06, 2024 3:06 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Pre early retirement steps
- Replies: 22
- Views: 2743
Re: Pre early retirement steps
If you give to charity consider a donor advised funds and contribute many years of charitable giving using appreciated stock. You'll get the full tax deduction now, when you're in a higher tax bracket.
- Tue Feb 06, 2024 5:27 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Asset allocation in taxable account
- Replies: 10
- Views: 1395
- Tue Feb 06, 2024 5:17 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Meta's jump
- Replies: 39
- Views: 4339
Re: Meta's jump
You take advantage of it by holding a total stock market fund and not watching anything.
- Thu Feb 01, 2024 7:54 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Asset allocation strategy
- Replies: 37
- Views: 3757
Re: Asset allocation strategy
Early 40s, retired. 80-90% equities and 8-10 years of expenses in bonds/cash.
- Fri Jan 12, 2024 1:35 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Egypt / Kenya safari in October. Thoughts?
- Replies: 28
- Views: 3725
Re: Egypt / Kenya safari in October. Thoughts?
I have been to Egypt and done safari in East Africa. Cannot imagine doing both in 12 days. I suggest you pick one.
- Thu Jan 11, 2024 8:29 pm
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: How to transition from wealth managers to self management
- Replies: 7
- Views: 1647
Re: How to transition from wealth managers to self management
If taxes are not an issue then transition to the new strategy asap
- Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:11 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Another Lump Sum vs DCA question
- Replies: 19
- Views: 1870
Re: Another Lump Sum vs DCA question
DCA will not alleviate your fear. What if the market crashes the day after you finish the DCA? You will be in the same position and will likely panic and destroy value.David_w wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 5:52 pm"Time in the market is more important than timing the market". When I first started my first managed account it was with about $80,000 and maybe 2015 or 2017. I let them lump sum and took a big hit. Yes it recovered but now that I'm 62 and approaching retirement age (not sure when) I was worried about picking the wrong time to lump sum and have the marked drop substantially.
The answer is to adjust your AA such that you are not scared, and separately work on effectively managing your emotions.
- Mon Jan 01, 2024 8:34 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Another Lump Sum vs DCA question
- Replies: 19
- Views: 1870
Re: Another Lump Sum vs DCA question
What does your advisor say?
- Fri Dec 22, 2023 7:15 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Inheritance Financial/Moral Dilemma
- Replies: 105
- Views: 12937
Re: Inheritance Financial/Moral Dilemma
50/50 unless you want to create a mountain of resentment.
- Sun Dec 17, 2023 1:30 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: I Messed Up How Do I Get Back In
- Replies: 97
- Views: 20661
Re: I Messed Up How Do I Get Back In
"How do I get back in" is the wrong question. Consider first answering, "how do i ensure that I don't panic in the future"
- Fri Dec 15, 2023 3:55 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Does Over-Funding a 529 Make Sense vs UTMA
- Replies: 16
- Views: 2033
Re: Does Over-Funding a 529 Make Sense
You can also just leave the money in the 529 and change the beneficiary as needed
- Fri Dec 15, 2023 3:52 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: PA to FL drive
- Replies: 34
- Views: 5924
Re: PA to FL drive
I drove my Mom and her pup from Allentown to Tampa a few weeks ago. We took the 76/81/77/95 route and stayed in Roanoke, VA and Savannah GA. You can do it with only 1 night in a hotel if you want, but that is too much driving per day for me. She just called ahead to hotels once we knew where we wanted to stop for the day - it was not a problem to find pet friendly ones.
- Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:21 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: How do you calculate your savings rate?
- Replies: 25
- Views: 2643
Re: How do you calculate your savings rate?
In my view, the only useful saving rate calculation is savings / annual expenses.
- Sun Oct 15, 2023 11:23 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: how do you explain theoretically that very few people beat the market long term?
- Replies: 76
- Views: 8605
Re: how do you explain theoretically that very few people beat the market long term?
The average is the mean, it is not the mode orBolderBoy wrote: ↑Sun Oct 15, 2023 11:16 amThere is so much pickiness going on in this thread that I guess I'll wade in and point out that "average" is a basket term encompassing mode, median and mean. When one says, "Average", it would be better to say which average is being discussed, wouldn't it?
I'm getting confused by folks talking about the median being different from the average.
median.
- Sat Oct 14, 2023 10:41 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: how do you explain theoretically that very few people beat the market long term?
- Replies: 76
- Views: 8605
Re: how do you explain theoretically that very few people beat the market long term?
Right. Half the people (or market participants) beat the median. That is the literal definition of median.
The OP asserted that half the people beat the average, which is incorrect.
The OP asserted that half the people beat the average, which is incorrect.
- Sat Oct 14, 2023 8:14 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: how do you explain theoretically that very few people beat the market long term?
- Replies: 76
- Views: 8605
Re: how do you explain theoretically that very few people beat the market long term?
Yes that is the point I made. The OP said half the people.
- Sat Oct 14, 2023 7:51 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: how do you explain theoretically that very few people beat the market long term?
- Replies: 76
- Views: 8605
Re: how do you explain theoretically that very few people beat the market long term?
Half the people beat the median, not the average.
- Mon Sep 11, 2023 12:52 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: The 3 million for retirement study, question
- Replies: 30
- Views: 5664
Re: The 3 million for retirement study, question
These are garbage articles. I doubt that even the author would be able to answer your question. Make your own plans.
- Wed Sep 06, 2023 1:36 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Portfolio Rebalance - Would you sell & hold cash waiting for market correction?
- Replies: 31
- Views: 2864
Re: Portfolio Rebalance - Would you sell & hold cash waiting for market correction?
what happens if prices never fall below where they are today?
- Wed Aug 16, 2023 7:39 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: How much gold should you hold in your portfolio?
- Replies: 195
- Views: 17952
Re: How much gold should you hold in your portfolio?
I hold 20 ounces of gold and 200 ounces of silver in my safe to hedge against catastrophic circumstances.
- Wed Aug 09, 2023 8:33 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: How to Invest Large Cash Position
- Replies: 15
- Views: 2010
Re: How to Invest Large Cash Position
As soon as you finalize your plan, invest accordingly. If you find yourself unable to execute your plan right away, you have the wrong plan.
- Sun Aug 06, 2023 9:42 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Good Modern Science Fiction
- Replies: 760
- Views: 149463
Re: Good Modern Science Fiction
Check out The Alpha Upgrade of HD Heathers by Todd S. Glider. Great read.
- Sat Jul 29, 2023 5:31 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: is it accurate to say almost no one beats the market?
- Replies: 136
- Views: 11794
Re: is it accurate to say almost no one beats the market?
Not if those people have different amounts of money.exodusNH wrote: ↑Sat Jul 29, 2023 5:23 pmThe "market" return is the sum of all the winners and losers. One person outperforming means one or more have to underperform.linate wrote: ↑Sat Jul 29, 2023 5:14 pm i heard someone say that, and i was thinking it might not accurate.
or is it more accurate just to say that most people dont beat the market? the market return is average, so one might think half the people do better. maybe over longer periods of time more and more people do just average and some dip below average. but isn't it most accurate to say a sizeable amount of people actually do beat the market?
not that we should try to beat it when average is just fine and less risky.
- Sat Jul 08, 2023 12:22 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: how to invest 10x in fixed income for early retiree ?
- Replies: 7
- Views: 1230
Re: how to invest 10x in fixed income for early retiree ?
I use an intermediate term treasury fund for exactly this purpose
- Fri Jul 07, 2023 10:30 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: How to perfrom Backdoor Roth IRA with existing traditional IRA
- Replies: 5
- Views: 682
Re: How to perfrom Backdoor Roth IRA with existing traditional IRA
1. Roll Traditional IRA and Rollover IRA into my present employer’s pre-tax 401k. Do this step in July. 2. After $0 are left in both these IRAs, close them or keep them open? 3. Make a nondeductible (i.e. taxed and not deducted) contribution to traditional IRA in August. Is this IRA which I already have (which now has $0) or open new IRA? 4. Then convert the traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. How do I do this? 5. Will I have to file form 8606 for this after tax contributon that I made to traditional IRA. Thanks [/quote] 1. Yes. Make sure the 401k will accept the rollover 2. Keep open 3. Make the contribution only after the 401k has cashed the check, then wait a few more weeks just to be sure there are no issues. No need to open a different IRA ...
- Tue Jul 04, 2023 8:23 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why not just T-Bills for Fixed Income?
- Replies: 13
- Views: 2424
Re: Why not just T-Bills for Fixed Income?
Do it. I use intermediate term treasuries.
- Wed Jun 21, 2023 7:17 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Larry McDonald Article: THE GREAT HIJACKING (Passive investing at risk?)
- Replies: 55
- Views: 6170
Re: Larry McDonald Article: THE GREAT HIJACKING (Passive investing at risk?)
So passive investors hold 50% of the market but make 70% of the trades? That is the opposite of passive.
- Mon Jun 19, 2023 8:37 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: For those of you in early retirement, what is your Asset Allocation and withdrawal rate?
- Replies: 62
- Views: 9699
- Mon Jun 19, 2023 8:37 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: For those of you in early retirement, what is your Asset Allocation and withdrawal rate?
- Replies: 62
- Views: 9699
- Thu Jun 08, 2023 4:29 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Bear v Bull
- Replies: 24
- Views: 2606
Re: Bear v Bull
The flaws in your logic are that these words have meaning, need definition, and are useful.
- Tue May 30, 2023 12:35 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Independent Financial Advisor or Brokerage House Wealth Management
- Replies: 38
- Views: 3046
Re: Independent Financial Advisor or Brokerage House Wealth Management
Paying 1% per year will reduce your lifetime wealth by around 1/3. If they put you in high cost funds/products and/or underperform the market, it will be even worse.
- Thu Apr 20, 2023 2:02 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Good read from WSJ about not retiring
- Replies: 77
- Views: 11498
Re: Good read from WSJ about not retiring
I retired early 18 months ago and watch far less TV now than when I had a job.
- Thu Apr 20, 2023 8:36 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Helping Mom after Stepfather passes - looking for checklist
- Replies: 5
- Views: 1025
Helping Mom after Stepfather passes - looking for checklist
Hi all - My stepfather is in hospice and likely to pass soon. I am trying to compile a list of financial/legal actions that need to be taken so I can support my Mom. For example, settling his will where everything passes to her, dealing with IRAs/pension, death certificate, notifications, credit cards, etc.
They are in their 70s and have IRAs, social security, and he may have a small pension. Very standard stuff.
I would appreciate any help, thank you.
They are in their 70s and have IRAs, social security, and he may have a small pension. Very standard stuff.
I would appreciate any help, thank you.
- Sat Apr 15, 2023 8:49 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Mega backdoor Roth - how much is too much?
- Replies: 10
- Views: 1434
Re: Mega backdoor Roth - how much is too much?
Hard to say for sure without knowing your entire situation, but if I could shift from taxable to Roth I certainly would if there are no tax consequences. You can use dividends and sell anything at a loss.
- Thu Mar 16, 2023 9:32 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: How to calculate the effect of expense ratio on retirement savings?
- Replies: 57
- Views: 4809
Re: How to calculate the effect of expense ratio on retirement savings?
I admit it is not always a clear-cut issue and that ethics are not absolute. However, in my view there are some pretty obvious examples of industries and companies causing massive amounts of suffering to humans and other animals, without providing much value to anyone. I don't really care to debate specific companies or industries here, so just to give one example that I hope we could agree on: chattel slavery in the United States. If I lived during the 1800s, I would want to avoid investing in the slave trade as much as possible. How do you feel about that? I'm against slave labor because I believe that in a truly free market, individuals should be free to choose, whether it be where they are employed and/or what products they buy. Slaver...
- Mon Mar 06, 2023 1:46 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: 2023 Backdoor Roth - 0.81 cents dividend for 1 day
- Replies: 20
- Views: 2110
Re: 2023 Backdoor Roth - 0.81 cents dividend for 1 day
I suggest using correct terminology which will hopefully clarify things a little more for you.
You did not make any transfers. You made a contribution, and then a conversion.
You did not make any transfers. You made a contribution, and then a conversion.
- Fri Jan 27, 2023 6:09 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Boglehead's version of play money?
- Replies: 42
- Views: 4294
Re: Boglehead's version of play money?
Small cap value might meet your criteria. But why do you feel the need to do this at all?
- Fri Jan 13, 2023 12:37 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: What are these abrupt changes in stock prices happening within minutes?
- Replies: 6
- Views: 1378
Re: What are these abrupt changes in stock prices happening within minutes?
What stock is this?
- Fri Jun 24, 2022 4:10 pm
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: At least -50% in next 2 years - Michael Burry and David Wright
- Replies: 91
- Views: 13338
Re: At least -50% in next 2 years - Michael Burry and David Wright
What will you do if the market never "crashes" 40% from current levels? Please be specific.
- Sat Dec 04, 2021 10:35 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Debating on Options trading - any suggestions
- Replies: 24
- Views: 2555
Re: Debating on Options trading - any suggestions
Can your husband price an option? My guess is no
- Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:57 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Default Boglehead brokerage/ investment option now that Vanguard abandoned Bogle?
- Replies: 56
- Views: 6507
Re: Default Boglehead brokerage/ investment option now that Vanguard abandoned Bogle?
Go to vanguard.com in a mobile browser.kiddoc wrote: ↑Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:23 amThank you. Can you please explain how to keep it simple in a taxable vanguard account and tax-loss harvest a 3-ETF portfolio using their app? I will be very thankful and stop hating Vanguard 50%. I don't want to use a workplace computer to log into their website to do this and their app doesn't show tax lots. I hope I just missed something and Vanguard is as great as you say they are. I hope tax-loss harvesting didn't become too complicated to fit into the definition of simplicity for Bogleheads.
- Tue Oct 19, 2021 2:11 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Desired AA for potential early retirees
- Replies: 14
- Views: 1912
Re: Desired AA for potential early retirees
It is what feels right and safe to me and my wife. If there is a prolonged downturn in stocks I want the piece of mind that I can spend from bonds for quite awhile. It also results in a stock allocation that is still >80%, which is right about where I have always been and like to be.
- Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:30 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Desired AA for potential early retirees
- Replies: 14
- Views: 1912
Re: Desired AA for potential early retirees
Early 40s here, retiring early in two weeks. I find it helpful to consider the number of years of expenses I want to have in cash / fixed income (I have settled on ~10 years). I like to be comfortable with that number, and with the resulting AA.
- Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:28 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Funding a 529 or paying for college directly
- Replies: 7
- Views: 1347
Re: Funding a 529 or paying for college directly
You could fund the 529 and pay for college directly. The 529 then becomes a sort of family education fund.
- Tue Oct 19, 2021 8:27 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Past returns vs future returns
- Replies: 36
- Views: 4883
Re: Past returns vs future returns
No, you can't time the market.
- Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:03 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Withdraw rate for VWIAX
- Replies: 41
- Views: 2878
Re: Withdraw rate for VWIAX
Only if you want to pay unnecessary taxes.Houdini563 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 6:31 am Wouldn’t be best to reinvest dividends and distributions on a constant basis and just take my 4% off the top in equal monthly installments?
- Thu Oct 07, 2021 11:07 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Retiring Early at 45 on Dividends?
- Replies: 36
- Views: 7290
Re: Retiring Early at 45 on Dividends?
Wow thank you all for the debate. It has given me some things to think about. It makes a lot of sense to just stick with growth funds like I currently I have I think so I have better control over when I pay taxes. Although, would one argument against the dividend fund being uncontrollable taxable events be wiped by choosing funds where Vanguard does heartbeat trades? https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-vanguard-mutual-fund-tax-dodge/ OP, did you not invest very much money for the first 4-8 years into your brokerage account? I just ran the numbers and if you had consistently invested $2,908.15 every month for the last 10 years, at a 18.3% rate you should be over a million dollars. I think we aren't getting the full picture of your inves...
- Fri Sep 17, 2021 12:59 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Outperforming The Stock Market Long Term!
- Replies: 120
- Views: 29351
Re: Outperforming The Stock Market Long Term!
by getting lucky