Search found 1176 matches

by magicrat
Sat Feb 24, 2024 8:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
Replies: 221
Views: 13743

Re: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks

For all the kids reading this market timing strategy... don't try it at home. It’s NOT a market timing strategy. Stocks can go up at a very high annual return from here for the next ten years. I am not timing the market by tilting away from Mag 7 stocks. Reducing concentration risk by diversifying is NOT timing the market. What you're doing is the definition of market timing. Also, you are reducing diversification, getting more diversified. How is diversifying the same as market timing? Bogleheads promote diversification by adding bonds and international stocks. I want to diversify by reducing concentration within the S&P 500. Changing your asset allocation based on current market conditions is market timing. Changing your allocation f...
by magicrat
Sat Feb 24, 2024 7:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
Replies: 221
Views: 13743

Re: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks

smartinvestor2020 wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 7:46 am
dogagility wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 6:04 am For all the kids reading this market timing strategy... don't try it at home.
It’s NOT a market timing strategy.

Stocks can go up at a very high annual return from here for the next ten years.

I am not timing the market by tilting away from Mag 7 stocks.

Reducing concentration risk by diversifying is NOT timing the market.
What you're doing is the definition of market timing. Also, you are reducing diversification, getting more diversified.
by magicrat
Tue Feb 06, 2024 3:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pre early retirement steps
Replies: 22
Views: 2743

Re: Pre early retirement steps

If you give to charity consider a donor advised funds and contribute many years of charitable giving using appreciated stock. You'll get the full tax deduction now, when you're in a higher tax bracket.
by magicrat
Tue Feb 06, 2024 5:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation in taxable account
Replies: 10
Views: 1395

Re: Asset allocation in taxable account

starhusker wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 10:14 pm

Does this make any sense?
No
by magicrat
Tue Feb 06, 2024 5:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Meta's jump
Replies: 39
Views: 4339

Re: Meta's jump

You take advantage of it by holding a total stock market fund and not watching anything.
by magicrat
Thu Feb 01, 2024 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation strategy
Replies: 37
Views: 3757

Re: Asset allocation strategy

Early 40s, retired. 80-90% equities and 8-10 years of expenses in bonds/cash.
by magicrat
Fri Jan 12, 2024 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Egypt / Kenya safari in October. Thoughts?
Replies: 28
Views: 3725

Re: Egypt / Kenya safari in October. Thoughts?

I have been to Egypt and done safari in East Africa. Cannot imagine doing both in 12 days. I suggest you pick one.
by magicrat
Thu Jan 11, 2024 8:29 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: How to transition from wealth managers to self management
Replies: 7
Views: 1647

Re: How to transition from wealth managers to self management

If taxes are not an issue then transition to the new strategy asap
by magicrat
Tue Jan 02, 2024 7:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Another Lump Sum vs DCA question
Replies: 19
Views: 1870

Re: Another Lump Sum vs DCA question

David_w wrote: Tue Jan 02, 2024 5:52 pm
magicrat wrote: Mon Jan 01, 2024 8:34 pm What does your advisor say?
"Time in the market is more important than timing the market". When I first started my first managed account it was with about $80,000 and maybe 2015 or 2017. I let them lump sum and took a big hit. Yes it recovered but now that I'm 62 and approaching retirement age (not sure when) I was worried about picking the wrong time to lump sum and have the marked drop substantially.
DCA will not alleviate your fear. What if the market crashes the day after you finish the DCA? You will be in the same position and will likely panic and destroy value.

The answer is to adjust your AA such that you are not scared, and separately work on effectively managing your emotions.
by magicrat
Mon Jan 01, 2024 8:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Another Lump Sum vs DCA question
Replies: 19
Views: 1870

Re: Another Lump Sum vs DCA question

What does your advisor say?
by magicrat
Fri Dec 22, 2023 7:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inheritance Financial/Moral Dilemma
Replies: 105
Views: 12937

Re: Inheritance Financial/Moral Dilemma

50/50 unless you want to create a mountain of resentment.
by magicrat
Sun Dec 17, 2023 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I Messed Up How Do I Get Back In
Replies: 97
Views: 20661

Re: I Messed Up How Do I Get Back In

"How do I get back in" is the wrong question. Consider first answering, "how do i ensure that I don't panic in the future"
by magicrat
Fri Dec 15, 2023 3:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does Over-Funding a 529 Make Sense vs UTMA
Replies: 16
Views: 2033

Re: Does Over-Funding a 529 Make Sense

You can also just leave the money in the 529 and change the beneficiary as needed
by magicrat
Fri Dec 15, 2023 3:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: PA to FL drive
Replies: 34
Views: 5924

Re: PA to FL drive

I drove my Mom and her pup from Allentown to Tampa a few weeks ago. We took the 76/81/77/95 route and stayed in Roanoke, VA and Savannah GA. You can do it with only 1 night in a hotel if you want, but that is too much driving per day for me. She just called ahead to hotels once we knew where we wanted to stop for the day - it was not a problem to find pet friendly ones.
by magicrat
Sat Nov 18, 2023 6:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you calculate your savings rate?
Replies: 25
Views: 2643

Re: How do you calculate your savings rate?

In my view, the only useful saving rate calculation is savings / annual expenses.
by magicrat
Sun Oct 15, 2023 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how do you explain theoretically that very few people beat the market long term?
Replies: 76
Views: 8605

Re: how do you explain theoretically that very few people beat the market long term?

BolderBoy wrote: Sun Oct 15, 2023 11:16 am
magicrat wrote: Sat Oct 14, 2023 10:41 am Right. Half the people (or market participants) beat the median. That is the literal definition of median.

The OP asserted that half the people beat the average, which is incorrect.
There is so much pickiness going on in this thread that I guess I'll wade in and point out that "average" is a basket term encompassing mode, median and mean. When one says, "Average", it would be better to say which average is being discussed, wouldn't it?

I'm getting confused by folks talking about the median being different from the average.
The average is the mean, it is not the mode or
median.
by magicrat
Sat Oct 14, 2023 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how do you explain theoretically that very few people beat the market long term?
Replies: 76
Views: 8605

Re: how do you explain theoretically that very few people beat the market long term?

Right. Half the people (or market participants) beat the median. That is the literal definition of median.

The OP asserted that half the people beat the average, which is incorrect.
by magicrat
Sat Oct 14, 2023 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how do you explain theoretically that very few people beat the market long term?
Replies: 76
Views: 8605

Re: how do you explain theoretically that very few people beat the market long term?

David Jay wrote: Sat Oct 14, 2023 8:04 am
magicrat wrote: Sat Oct 14, 2023 7:51 am Half the people beat the median, not the average.
Not half the people, half the assets (think: dollars invested). The market doesn’t know or care about ownership / management.
Yes that is the point I made. The OP said half the people.
by magicrat
Mon Sep 11, 2023 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 3 million for retirement study, question
Replies: 30
Views: 5664

Re: The 3 million for retirement study, question

These are garbage articles. I doubt that even the author would be able to answer your question. Make your own plans.
by magicrat
Wed Aug 16, 2023 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much gold should you hold in your portfolio?
Replies: 195
Views: 17952

Re: How much gold should you hold in your portfolio?

I hold 20 ounces of gold and 200 ounces of silver in my safe to hedge against catastrophic circumstances.
by magicrat
Wed Aug 09, 2023 8:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to Invest Large Cash Position
Replies: 15
Views: 2010

Re: How to Invest Large Cash Position

As soon as you finalize your plan, invest accordingly. If you find yourself unable to execute your plan right away, you have the wrong plan.
by magicrat
Sun Aug 06, 2023 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good Modern Science Fiction
Replies: 760
Views: 149463

Re: Good Modern Science Fiction

Check out The Alpha Upgrade of HD Heathers by Todd S. Glider. Great read.
by magicrat
Sat Jul 29, 2023 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is it accurate to say almost no one beats the market?
Replies: 136
Views: 11794

Re: is it accurate to say almost no one beats the market?

exodusNH wrote: Sat Jul 29, 2023 5:23 pm
linate wrote: Sat Jul 29, 2023 5:14 pm i heard someone say that, and i was thinking it might not accurate.

or is it more accurate just to say that most people dont beat the market? the market return is average, so one might think half the people do better. maybe over longer periods of time more and more people do just average and some dip below average. but isn't it most accurate to say a sizeable amount of people actually do beat the market?

not that we should try to beat it when average is just fine and less risky.
The "market" return is the sum of all the winners and losers. One person outperforming means one or more have to underperform.
Not if those people have different amounts of money.
by magicrat
Sat Jul 08, 2023 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: how to invest 10x in fixed income for early retiree ?
Replies: 7
Views: 1230

Re: how to invest 10x in fixed income for early retiree ?

I use an intermediate term treasury fund for exactly this purpose
by magicrat
Fri Jul 07, 2023 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to perfrom Backdoor Roth IRA with existing traditional IRA
Replies: 5
Views: 682

Re: How to perfrom Backdoor Roth IRA with existing traditional IRA

1. Roll Traditional IRA and Rollover IRA into my present employer’s pre-tax 401k. Do this step in July. 2. After $0 are left in both these IRAs, close them or keep them open? 3. Make a nondeductible (i.e. taxed and not deducted) contribution to traditional IRA in August. Is this IRA which I already have (which now has $0) or open new IRA? 4. Then convert the traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. How do I do this? 5. Will I have to file form 8606 for this after tax contributon that I made to traditional IRA. Thanks [/quote] 1. Yes. Make sure the 401k will accept the rollover 2. Keep open 3. Make the contribution only after the 401k has cashed the check, then wait a few more weeks just to be sure there are no issues. No need to open a different IRA ...
by magicrat
Tue Jul 04, 2023 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not just T-Bills for Fixed Income?
Replies: 13
Views: 2424

Re: Why not just T-Bills for Fixed Income?

Do it. I use intermediate term treasuries.
by magicrat
Wed Jun 21, 2023 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry McDonald Article: THE GREAT HIJACKING (Passive investing at risk?)
Replies: 55
Views: 6170

Re: Larry McDonald Article: THE GREAT HIJACKING (Passive investing at risk?)

So passive investors hold 50% of the market but make 70% of the trades? That is the opposite of passive.
by magicrat
Thu Jun 08, 2023 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bear v Bull
Replies: 24
Views: 2606

Re: Bear v Bull

The flaws in your logic are that these words have meaning, need definition, and are useful.
by magicrat
Tue May 30, 2023 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Independent Financial Advisor or Brokerage House Wealth Management
Replies: 38
Views: 3046

Re: Independent Financial Advisor or Brokerage House Wealth Management

Paying 1% per year will reduce your lifetime wealth by around 1/3. If they put you in high cost funds/products and/or underperform the market, it will be even worse.
by magicrat
Thu Apr 20, 2023 2:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good read from WSJ about not retiring
Replies: 77
Views: 11498

Re: Good read from WSJ about not retiring

I retired early 18 months ago and watch far less TV now than when I had a job.
by magicrat
Thu Apr 20, 2023 8:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Helping Mom after Stepfather passes - looking for checklist
Replies: 5
Views: 1025

Helping Mom after Stepfather passes - looking for checklist

Hi all - My stepfather is in hospice and likely to pass soon. I am trying to compile a list of financial/legal actions that need to be taken so I can support my Mom. For example, settling his will where everything passes to her, dealing with IRAs/pension, death certificate, notifications, credit cards, etc.

They are in their 70s and have IRAs, social security, and he may have a small pension. Very standard stuff.

I would appreciate any help, thank you.
by magicrat
Sat Apr 15, 2023 8:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mega backdoor Roth - how much is too much?
Replies: 10
Views: 1434

Re: Mega backdoor Roth - how much is too much?

Hard to say for sure without knowing your entire situation, but if I could shift from taxable to Roth I certainly would if there are no tax consequences. You can use dividends and sell anything at a loss.
by magicrat
Thu Mar 16, 2023 9:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to calculate the effect of expense ratio on retirement savings?
Replies: 57
Views: 4809

Re: How to calculate the effect of expense ratio on retirement savings?

I admit it is not always a clear-cut issue and that ethics are not absolute. However, in my view there are some pretty obvious examples of industries and companies causing massive amounts of suffering to humans and other animals, without providing much value to anyone. I don't really care to debate specific companies or industries here, so just to give one example that I hope we could agree on: chattel slavery in the United States. If I lived during the 1800s, I would want to avoid investing in the slave trade as much as possible. How do you feel about that? I'm against slave labor because I believe that in a truly free market, individuals should be free to choose, whether it be where they are employed and/or what products they buy. Slaver...
by magicrat
Mon Mar 06, 2023 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2023 Backdoor Roth - 0.81 cents dividend for 1 day
Replies: 20
Views: 2110

Re: 2023 Backdoor Roth - 0.81 cents dividend for 1 day

I suggest using correct terminology which will hopefully clarify things a little more for you.

You did not make any transfers. You made a contribution, and then a conversion.
by magicrat
Fri Jan 27, 2023 6:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Boglehead's version of play money?
Replies: 42
Views: 4294

Re: Boglehead's version of play money?

Small cap value might meet your criteria. But why do you feel the need to do this at all?
by magicrat
Fri Jun 24, 2022 4:10 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: At least -50% in next 2 years - Michael Burry and David Wright
Replies: 91
Views: 13338

Re: At least -50% in next 2 years - Michael Burry and David Wright

What will you do if the market never "crashes" 40% from current levels? Please be specific.
by magicrat
Sat Dec 04, 2021 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Debating on Options trading - any suggestions
Replies: 24
Views: 2555

Re: Debating on Options trading - any suggestions

Can your husband price an option? My guess is no
by magicrat
Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Default Boglehead brokerage/ investment option now that Vanguard abandoned Bogle?
Replies: 56
Views: 6507

Re: Default Boglehead brokerage/ investment option now that Vanguard abandoned Bogle?

kiddoc wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:23 am
Bama12 wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 11:48 pm This board should be renamed to I hate Vanguard.

I don't understand why we get daily post about Vanguard. If you all keep it simple like you say then Vanguard is great.
Thank you. Can you please explain how to keep it simple in a taxable vanguard account and tax-loss harvest a 3-ETF portfolio using their app? I will be very thankful and stop hating Vanguard 50%. I don't want to use a workplace computer to log into their website to do this and their app doesn't show tax lots. I hope I just missed something and Vanguard is as great as you say they are. I hope tax-loss harvesting didn't become too complicated to fit into the definition of simplicity for Bogleheads.
Go to vanguard.com in a mobile browser.
by magicrat
Tue Oct 19, 2021 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Desired AA for potential early retirees
Replies: 14
Views: 1912

Re: Desired AA for potential early retirees

vrr106 wrote: Tue Oct 19, 2021 2:06 pm
magicrat wrote: Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:30 pm Early 40s here, retiring early in two weeks. I find it helpful to consider the number of years of expenses I want to have in cash / fixed income (I have settled on ~10 years). I like to be comfortable with that number, and with the resulting AA.
I'm curious why you settled on that long for cash/fixed income. Is it to reduce volatility or tax or both?
It is what feels right and safe to me and my wife. If there is a prolonged downturn in stocks I want the piece of mind that I can spend from bonds for quite awhile. It also results in a stock allocation that is still >80%, which is right about where I have always been and like to be.
by magicrat
Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Desired AA for potential early retirees
Replies: 14
Views: 1912

Re: Desired AA for potential early retirees

Early 40s here, retiring early in two weeks. I find it helpful to consider the number of years of expenses I want to have in cash / fixed income (I have settled on ~10 years). I like to be comfortable with that number, and with the resulting AA.
by magicrat
Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Funding a 529 or paying for college directly
Replies: 7
Views: 1347

Re: Funding a 529 or paying for college directly

You could fund the 529 and pay for college directly. The 529 then becomes a sort of family education fund.
by magicrat
Tue Oct 19, 2021 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Past returns vs future returns
Replies: 36
Views: 4883

Re: Past returns vs future returns

No, you can't time the market.
by magicrat
Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Withdraw rate for VWIAX
Replies: 41
Views: 2878

Re: Withdraw rate for VWIAX

Houdini563 wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 6:31 am Wouldn’t be best to reinvest dividends and distributions on a constant basis and just take my 4% off the top in equal monthly installments?
Only if you want to pay unnecessary taxes.
by magicrat
Thu Oct 07, 2021 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring Early at 45 on Dividends?
Replies: 36
Views: 7290

Re: Retiring Early at 45 on Dividends?

Wow thank you all for the debate. It has given me some things to think about. It makes a lot of sense to just stick with growth funds like I currently I have I think so I have better control over when I pay taxes. Although, would one argument against the dividend fund being uncontrollable taxable events be wiped by choosing funds where Vanguard does heartbeat trades? https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-vanguard-mutual-fund-tax-dodge/ OP, did you not invest very much money for the first 4-8 years into your brokerage account? I just ran the numbers and if you had consistently invested $2,908.15 every month for the last 10 years, at a 18.3% rate you should be over a million dollars. I think we aren't getting the full picture of your inves...