Search found 542 matches

by investorguy1
Fri Dec 30, 2016 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The man vs. machine argument and how thinking can hurt you!
Replies: 26
Views: 3427

Re: The man vs. machine argument and how thinking can hurt you!

The machine is simply made up of the inputs that the man could put into the algorithm. The question is what information does man know that he can't put into a machine if any? Maybe it's something like a gut feeling about CEO or product? Maybe it is just behavioral biases? Well you gotta separate those things out and test them individually. Once you have figured out how to do that you could probably find a way to get a machine to do it but maybe not...
by investorguy1
Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you only have 20% in bonds...
Replies: 42
Views: 9222

Re: If you only have 20% in bonds...

There certainly are some argument in favor of tips. However if you only have 20% of your portfolio in bonds then how much would you put in tips? if you put 10% well that is half your bonds so that is a big bet. 5% would be 25% of your bonds which is still a decently sized bet but this will likely not have much impact on your portfolio maybe just lower your returns in the long run. To avoid that you could change to lets say 17% bonds but now were getting really into the weeds here and it seems to be in this case simplicity might be the over riding factor here and you would be well served with total bond market.
by investorguy1
Wed Dec 28, 2016 5:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are my parents in good hands with this adviser?
Replies: 88
Views: 10295

Re: Are my parents in good hands with this adviser?

You don't have to be there guy. Stick them in an asset allocation fund. They can still have a guy to give them advise that guy just don't have take money out of their portfolio because they will be taken care of. Their guy could do anything and everything else.
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 27, 2016 7:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are my parents in good hands with this adviser?
Replies: 88
Views: 10295

Re: Are my parents in good hands with this adviser?

They can go with Vanguard advisor services. Charge is 0.30% they could also use an asset allocation fund instead of the 3 fund portfolio. You have to separate advice from asset management. Maybe get all their qualified accounts into Vangaurd Life strategies fund. Then for the rest maybe they could have it managed or just pay someone per hour to keep them from selling in a down turn. Even if it costs you $400/hr it will probably be worth it. Also as far as annuities go they could look into switching to vanguard or other low cost. Vanguard has a tool to compare fees.
by investorguy1
Sat Dec 24, 2016 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard's risk score 4 for US, and 5 for int'l?
Replies: 6
Views: 1266

Re: Why is Vanguard's risk score 4 for US, and 5 for int'l?

As others pointed out US has had a lower standard deviation and that is probably what they are basing the risk on. On the other hand if I had a choice of only investing in US or the rest of the world. I would think the rest of the world is a better choice.
by investorguy1
Sat Dec 24, 2016 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance
Replies: 26
Views: 3352

Re: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance

larryswedroe wrote:Blueears
DFA wrote a nice paper showing that really not likely to be able to time the value premium. For example, they looked at going long value when the BTM spread was higher than average and long growth when it was lower and it did worse than just staying long value. Reason pretty simple, just like with stocks (beta), there is always an ex ante value premium, just that sometimes it's smaller.
Hope that helps
larry
How about doing a momentum strategy where you would buy value or growth depending on which did better the previous month. I didn't back test it but looking at the chart that would have worked a good majority of the time.
by investorguy1
Sat Dec 24, 2016 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance
Replies: 26
Views: 3352

Re: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance

That chart looks pretty "streaky" to me. For example You don't see one month of value followed by one month of growth and back again. I would love to see a chart like this for market beta.
by investorguy1
Fri Dec 23, 2016 3:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard transfer nightmare....
Replies: 35
Views: 5123

Re: Vanguard transfer nightmare....

Are you saying that US bank doesn't charge for selling mutual funds? I doubt it.
by investorguy1
Fri Dec 23, 2016 2:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are my parents in good hands with this adviser?
Replies: 88
Views: 10295

Re: Are my parents in good hands with this adviser?

While the advisor claims to act as a fiduciary and comply with the new DOL rules (which is good) I would point out that the new fiduciary rules only apply to retirement accounts such as 401Ks and IRAs. They do not apply to non-retirement accounts. If most of your parent’s savings are in a taxable account then they could be sold anything that meets the less stringent suitability rule. I have news for you about the "DOL rule". All you have to do is say you are going to provide more services like annual reviews and "financial planning" things that you won't get with your old 401k or IRA and then you can go ahead and charge outrageous fees. So the laws don't really mean much if someone is dishonest they could get away with ...
by investorguy1
Thu Dec 22, 2016 7:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are my parents in good hands with this adviser?
Replies: 88
Views: 10295

Re: Are my parents in good hands with this adviser?

Here is a recent article from Larry Swedroe on Structured notes http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-fairy-tale-behind-structured-products The bottom line is they sounds like you get high returns with no risk but the truth is the "advisor" or more accurately the salesman gets a nice big fat commission for selling it. His email is a great example of the sales strategy I like to call " confuse and conquer ". The idea is to say a bunch of stuff that sounds really fancy and complicated but doesn't really mean much in order to confuse the ignorant layman into submission. So he uses words like "open end funds" instead of mutual fund. An honest person would use the word mutual fund because people ...
by investorguy1
Thu Dec 22, 2016 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will ETFs make mutual index funds obsolete?
Replies: 28
Views: 3154

Re: Will ETFs make mutual index funds obsolete?

McGilicutty wrote:
nisiprius wrote:Do you realize they're not even putting 6 ounces of yogurt in the cups any more?
It's kind of like SoftSoap. The containers keep getting smaller and smaller. I guess it's so they can keep the price under a buck. Heck, I can barely get 10 hand washes out of a container of SoftSoap anymore.
scotch tape keeps running out!
by investorguy1
Wed Dec 21, 2016 5:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sell house to invest?
Replies: 8
Views: 911

Re: Sell house to invest?

If you don't want to live in the house another option is to rent it out. If there is a lot of appreciation in the house that would leave you with a big tax bill that might me an option too. Are you moving to the trailer because you want to or just to save money? Do you need the money?
by investorguy1
Wed Dec 21, 2016 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VBR higher p/e than VTI & lower growth
Replies: 17
Views: 3314

Re: VBR higher p/e than VTI & lower growth

So I'm the only one who is surprised by the p/e? :happy What may be really surprising to you, is how bad the earnings are depending on how they're aggregated. The way Vanguard computes the P/E ratio for a mutual fund are a bit different than how an index may calculate it. The Index itself may divide the aggregate of the share prices by the aggregate of all the earnings together. A mutual fund might average it by the weighted amount of individual companies, and may disregard companies with negative earnings or set extremely high or low earnings to some arbitrary cap. For example, the broad Russell 2000 Index has not even had positive earnings over the past year. The trailing 12 months P/E is being reported as "NIL" by the WSJ http...
by investorguy1
Wed Dec 21, 2016 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VBR higher p/e than VTI & lower growth
Replies: 17
Views: 3314

Re: VBR higher p/e than VTI & lower growth

David Jay wrote:
garlandwhizzer wrote:People tend to skate where the puck was, moving into asset classes that have recently outperformed...
+1
I'm not trying to skate I just find it odd that small cap value and total market have the same p/e. Jo money might be on the money.
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 20, 2016 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: sector contribution to S&P
Replies: 1
Views: 429

Re: sector contribution to S&P

Jeremy Segal has a chart in his book "Stocks for the Long Run" of the historical breakdown over time.
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 20, 2016 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should everyone use a backdoor Roth?
Replies: 16
Views: 3203

Re: Should everyone use a backdoor Roth?

Since he is in the highest tax bracket and working he would probably be better off in traditional the more he could reduce his income now the better to lower the big tax bite. Once he stops working if his tax bracket lowers maybe that would be a good time to do it. But if he is in a higher tax bracket than his heirs would be roth conversion may not be great option. There are calculators out there that my help.
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 20, 2016 9:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Adviser Portfolio Review
Replies: 7
Views: 1595

Re: Vanguard Adviser Portfolio Review

Are you allowed to transfer while at the job? Is there a limit to the number of times you can transfer? How much longer are you planning on staying at the job? How much more do the funds cost inside than outside? What is your desired asset allocation? Do you have a company match? How much in terms of % of portfolio do you have in an out of the 401k?
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 20, 2016 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VBR higher p/e than VTI & lower growth
Replies: 17
Views: 3314

Re: VBR higher p/e than VTI & lower growth

So I'm the only one who is surprised by the p/e? :happy
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 20, 2016 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VBR higher p/e than VTI & lower growth
Replies: 17
Views: 3314

VBR higher p/e than VTI & lower growth

Is this a bad time to tilt to SCV?

VBR p/e 24.4
VTI p/e 24

VBR earnings growth 8.2
VTI growth rate 6.7

Small Cap has a growth rate of 9.4 but a whopping PE of 30!
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 20, 2016 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: iShares Factor ETF Fee Cuts
Replies: 5
Views: 1693

Re: iShares Factor ETF Fee Cuts

Sunnywindy- I thought they were going after people in index funds trying to make some money off them. What I don't like is that all these providers try and charge as much as possible and will only come down if forced. I'd rather go with a company whose goal it is to reduce costs for shareholders not try and charge as much as possible.
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 20, 2016 5:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Car Value For $10K Or Less
Replies: 30
Views: 3266

Re: Best Car Value For $10K Or Less

Why did no one say Hyundai Sonata? You should be able to get one for less than Honda or Toyota and they are still good cars. If you are looking for under $10k I'd say it's worth a look. I would say you have to look around and see what available in your area and test drive.
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 20, 2016 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is VBR a no-brainer over IJS?
Replies: 47
Views: 10340

Re: Is VBR a no-brainer over IJS?

VBR is only 3 basis points more than total stock market. So lets say you want to tilt 10% with IJS instead you could do 20% with VBR and you would get more small and more value for lower cost than IJS. So in terms of bang for your bucks it looks like VBR is the winner.
by investorguy1
Sat Dec 17, 2016 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ellis: "Under 40 years old - 100% in Stocks"
Replies: 54
Views: 8498

Re: Ellis: "Under 40 years old - 100% in Stocks"

...If the definition is something else, then what that else is needs to be specified, and then we can find out what the investor would be best advised to do. How about what I said above as a definite "Maybe it is the very unlikely but devastating chance that stocks crash and don't recover for very long periods of time (Japan) or at all (Russia)."? Yes, that would be a fear that one would mitigate by diversifying the portfolio. It is an illustration of the possibility that higher return and higher variability of return can result in a worst case that is worse than the worst case of a lower returning, lower variability investments. The other side of that coin is that if the best case for a low returning, low variability investment ...
by investorguy1
Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ellis: "Under 40 years old - 100% in Stocks"
Replies: 54
Views: 8498

Re: Ellis: "Under 40 years old - 100% in Stocks"

...If the definition is something else, then what that else is needs to be specified, and then we can find out what the investor would be best advised to do. How about what I said above as a definite "Maybe it is the very unlikely but devastating chance that stocks crash and don't recover for very long periods of time (Japan) or at all (Russia)."? Yes, that would be a fear that one would mitigate by diversifying the portfolio. It is an illustration of the possibility that higher return and higher variability of return can result in a worst case that is worse than the worst case of a lower returning, lower variability investments. The other side of that coin is that if the best case for a low returning, low variability investment ...
by investorguy1
Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ellis: "Under 40 years old - 100% in Stocks"
Replies: 54
Views: 8498

Re: Ellis: "Under 40 years old - 100% in Stocks"

dbr wrote:...If the definition is something else, then what that else is needs to be specified, and then we can find out what the investor would be best advised to do.
How about what I said above as a definite "Maybe it is the very unlikely but devastating chance that stocks crash and don't recover for very long periods of time (Japan) or at all (Russia)."?
by investorguy1
Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone read Vanguard's commentary on rising interest rates?
Replies: 14
Views: 3294

Re: Anyone read Vanguard's commentary on rising interest rates?

can you post the url for the article please?
by investorguy1
Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ellis: "Under 40 years old - 100% in Stocks"
Replies: 54
Views: 8498

Re: Ellis: "Under 40 years old - 100% in Stocks"

I could very well be totally wrong on this but I'll share my thoughts. Many suggest that if it wasn't for emotions or investor behavior 100% stocks would definitely be the prudent investment choice. I question that reasoning. The argument for going 100% socks, if you have a long time horizon, is that stocks are volatile in the short term but in the long term, 20+ years, they produce higher real returns than bonds. How could this be so if the premium earned by stocks is compensation for taking risk? Seemingly the above argument implies that stocks are the safer investment over the long term. I suppose you could still argue that the risk is solely the short term volatility. In which case it would seem to me that the premium is far to high. Fu...
by investorguy1
Thu Dec 15, 2016 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Damodaran on Active Vs. Passive, nice piece
Replies: 8
Views: 1928

Re: Damodaran on Active Vs. Passive, nice piece

good article. When he gets to his last comment I really don't understand his perspective. At the end he says that he would be fine with being an active investor and under performing his whole life because "he enjoys investing". That to me seems pretty silly. You could have spent that time with family and friends or helping others in some way. Then you could of had more money and spent it or given it to poor who are literally starving. So yes enjoyment is something we all want in life but surly there are better ways to get it then spending time and energy to lose your money. If he had said something like I would be happy because I know the odds were in my favor and I just got unlucky that would be one thing but he didn't say that. ...
by investorguy1
Thu Dec 15, 2016 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why risk slicing and dicing at all
Replies: 52
Views: 6603

Re: Why risk slicing and dicing at all

Lots of people in Japan wished they didn't invest. There is no guarantee. Does that mean you should smoke all day because one guy lived till 100? Should you not wear a seat belt or use air bags because sometimes it can be worse? Of course there is no guarantee. No one is claiming that there is. But there are probabilities. The chances are if you smoke a pack a day for your whole life and eat bigmacs everyday you will likely not live as long. I just don't like this whole you can't know anything argument. If you can't know anything than you also can't prove that you can't know anything. No one is saying there are guarantees. What reasonable people do is look at the facts and make educated decisions based on the best information available.
by investorguy1
Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why risk slicing and dicing at all
Replies: 52
Views: 6603

Re: Why risk slicing and dicing at all

sambb wrote:it is interesting that past performance is being used to guide future results. We dont know either way. The past doesnt predict the future results.
I think that is an overly simplistic view. I don't know exactly what will be but we know some things and it is irrational to ignore it. All research in any field is based on observing what happens and drawing conclusions. That is how it works in science, medicine, psychology and all other areas of research. Now that doesn't mean you could just draw whatever conclusions you want. There is a scientific method that must be followed. If we don't know either way then why invest at all why not just keep your money in cash?
by investorguy1
Wed Dec 14, 2016 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why risk slicing and dicing at all
Replies: 52
Views: 6603

Re: Why risk slicing and dicing at all

I bet if those who did it actually compared their returns to the total return of the S&P 500, they would be disappointed. Really? So we can look at the three domestic funds that a slice and dicer would have used with the longest inception date for them which would be 4/93 through 11/16 over which the S&P returned 9.1%. DFA Micro returned 11.5, DFA LV returned 10.1 and DFA SV returned 12.1 Larry, Thank you for your many thoughts in this thread, and for your book which I eagerly read. I know that you define the factor premia as a monthly long-short portfolio return minus the T-bill rate. My question is whether it might be helpful to convince factor skeptics if you alternatively consider the returns of the factors HmL, SmB, etc minus ...
by investorguy1
Wed Dec 14, 2016 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says (US) has the best investor protections and legal institutions
Replies: 88
Views: 9479

Re: Bogle says (US) has the best investor protections and legal institutions

If US companies made more money than companies should be moving to the US. But we see that the opposite is happening.
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 13, 2016 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why risk slicing and dicing at all
Replies: 52
Views: 6603

Re: Why risk slicing and dicing at all

What conclusions if any do you draw from this? Vanguard Total stock market Investor shares (since inception 4/27/1992): 9.26% Vanguard Value index fund (Since inception 11/2/1992): 9.22% Vanguard small cap value 10 yr 7.49% vs 7.41% for total and 5.88% for value From 1999 to 2016 according to portfolio visualizer: Total stock market outperformed 3 times or 17% Value: 4 times or 22% Small Value: 11 times or 61% 1= total market 2= value 3= small value ..#Initial.......Final Balnc....CAGR... Std.Dev... Best Yr... Worst Yr... Max. Drawdn... Shrpe Ratio... Sortno Ratio... US Mkt Correltn 1 $10,000.....$27,495.........5.81%.... 15.45%.... 33.35%.... -37.04%.... -50.89%......... 0.33........... 0.46.......... 1.00 2 $10,000.....$28,548.........6.0...
by investorguy1
Mon Dec 12, 2016 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel bashes Total Bond Market
Replies: 16
Views: 4891

Re: Burton Malkiel bashes Total Bond Market

garlandwhizzer wrote:
nedsaid wrote:
Probably most investors today have only seen interest rates fall and it doesn't occur to them that interest rates can have a secular trend upward as well as down.
1+

We are always prepared for the last war, rarely for the next one.

Garland Whizzer
according to multpl.com the current PE is 26 the only times it was higher going back to 1870 was before 2000 and 20008. Maybe bonds aren't looking too good but stocks seem pretty richly priced too.
by investorguy1
Sun Dec 11, 2016 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond funds vs. Dividend Funds?
Replies: 37
Views: 6951

Re: Bond funds vs. Dividend Funds?

... Also he would be paying long term gains tax which is lower than the tax on dividends which are taxed like ordinary income. Dividends can be either ordinary or qualified. Ordinary are indeed taxed as ordinary income but qualified are taxed as capital gains. It is pretty easy for dividends to be classified as qualified - the stock in question must be owned for at least 60 days. A fund's distributions are qualified if both the fund and the investor held the stock/fund for at least 60 days. I stand corrected. Thank you for pointing that out! Do you have an idea of % US and international stock dividends that are qualified vs non-qualified? REIT and MLP dividends are non qualified is that right? as a side note. In a case where someone was wi...
by investorguy1
Sun Dec 11, 2016 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond funds vs. Dividend Funds?
Replies: 37
Views: 6951

Re: Bond funds vs. Dividend Funds?

There is a very big difference between bond funds and dividend funds. One holds bonds and the other holds stocks. Stocks are much more volatile than investment grade bonds. Dividend paying stocks are not a replacement for bonds. Thank you. Is there less of a difference between the two if a person never looks at or cares about the price of the fund (i.e. The volatility), and is only interested in the quarterly/annual yield payments as an income stream? Yes there is a difference. Someone holding a bond fund and looks at the statements could see the value of the fund go down. For a bond holder to see the same thing he would likely have to call the broker and ask how much he could get for the bond. So since he doesn't look anyways that is a po...
by investorguy1
Sat Dec 10, 2016 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond funds vs. Dividend Funds?
Replies: 37
Views: 6951

Re: Bond funds vs. Dividend Funds?

There is a very big difference between bond funds and dividend funds. One holds bonds and the other holds stocks. Stocks are much more volatile than investment grade bonds. Dividend paying stocks are not a replacement for bonds. The nice thing about a bond fund versus individual bonds is that you could get a lot diversification which is very important. If you only hold a hand full of bonds and one defaults that could be pretty devastating to a portfolio. They are also more liquid than individual bonds and they could usually buy bonds at better prices than an individual (is my understanding). They can also keep a set duration which with individual bonds you can't really do. Historically if you had a 50/50 stock bond portfolio and withdrew 4%...
by investorguy1
Wed Dec 07, 2016 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about hiring Advisor
Replies: 25
Views: 2868

Re: Thinking about hiring Advisor

I took a look at this tool from Vanguard... Sorry if you didn't find it helpful. $400,000 income puts you at the 98 percentile for income. $150,000 puts you at 90th. So for 97% of households that isn't an issue. The slider for return doesn't say it is inflation adjusted so there is no reason to think it is. I agree the tool is not very advanced and they could have expanded the perimeters. But for most people I think it is pretty useful. There are other tools. Anyways the way I see it the main thing is that for someone who plans on spending 30 years in retirement with a portfolio around 50/50 could use the good old 4% rule. So if are on track to have 25 times the income you will need in retirement less social security you are probably on tr...
by investorguy1
Wed Dec 07, 2016 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Auto Rebalance software/broker
Replies: 5
Views: 1306

Re: Auto Rebalance software/broker

I would be terribly afraid of using such software because of tax issues. For instance, I did some rebalancing today. I had to sell some large-cap international. I have some in about 5 different accounts, so which one should I sell from or should I sell some from all of them? OK, I know what I would do and my thought process to arrive at it, but would I let some programmer or team in some far-away place come up with a solution? No, I would not since there are many solutions, but some are better than others. For me and I think a lot of people a large portion of assets are in tax differed. Some of the programs I've seen to things like "tax loss harvesting" and also have different setting you could chose for how sensitive to taxes yo...
by investorguy1
Wed Dec 07, 2016 5:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Auto Rebalance software/broker
Replies: 5
Views: 1306

Re: Auto Rebalance software/broker

The first thing that comes to mind is betterment and wealthfront. https://www.betterment.com/?utm_content=14544782&gclid=CjwKEAiAg5_CBRDo4o6e4o3NtG0SJAB-IatYUZs055NGpVtmvnVhbR-oCCrhgnph8GMvOs0AvoWG7hoCvTPw_wcB https://www.wealthfront.com/ Of course Vanguards PAS service would do this, as would Fidelity Go or Schwab Intelligent Investor. You will pay fees for any of these service. (well, schwab makes up for no fees by having you in a large cash position I believe) The only other option I know of is to use a spreadsheet or use Vanguards Portfolio watch to manually rebalance. OR buy a Target Retirement Fund. I can't imagine anyone doing this for free. Spreadsheet method: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Using_a_spreadsheet_to_maintain_a_po...
by investorguy1
Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Auto Rebalance software/broker
Replies: 5
Views: 1306

Auto Rebalance software/broker

There are software programs for financial advisors which allow you to easily rebalance a portfolio such as iRebal, and Tamarac or a 401k. Are there any brokerage accounts where they offer this type of service? If not I hope Vanguard is reading this and starts offering this service.
by investorguy1
Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about hiring Advisor
Replies: 25
Views: 2868

Re: Thinking about hiring Advisor

I took a look at this tool from Vanguard... Sorry if you didn't find it helpful. $400,000 income puts you at the 98 percentile for income. $150,000 puts you at 90th. So for 97% of households that isn't an issue. The slider for return doesn't say it is inflation adjusted so there is no reason to think it is. I agree the tool is not very advanced and they could have expanded the perimeters. But for most people I think it is pretty useful. There are other tools. Anyways the way I see it the main thing is that for someone who plans on spending 30 years in retirement with a portfolio around 50/50 could use the good old 4% rule. So if are on track to have 25 times the income you will need in retirement less social security you are probably on tr...
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 06, 2016 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Simplyfying to 1-Fund Portfolio?
Replies: 14
Views: 2914

Re: Simplyfying to 1-Fund Portfolio?

If you want a 40/60 you could go with the Life strategies conservative growth fund. You will get the international bonds which you don't want but it could still be worth it to keep things simplified for yourself. I don't think it matters when you do it.
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 06, 2016 7:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about hiring Advisor
Replies: 25
Views: 2868

Re: Thinking about hiring Advisor

desiderium wrote:... it seems like giving up the ability to earn my way out of difficult situations (and lacking a guaranteed pension) makes the game more serious.
All the more reason to keep more of your money so you can retire sooner. It sounds like you are worried about the market and want to do something to improve your situation. Some times the best thing you can do is nothing. Well the one good thing you could do is come here and get some advice and support. The main thing you could change is your savings rate. Use this super awesome tool to see if you are on track https://retirementplans.vanguard.com/VG ... meCalc.jsf
That may help give you some peace of mind.
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 06, 2016 6:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about hiring Advisor
Replies: 25
Views: 2868

Re: Thinking about hiring Advisor

You could get Vanguard to do it for 0.30%. not 0.03%. Anyways if you want some fancy factor tilts you can do that by adding a couple funds like Vanguard small cap value (VBR) and international small cap (VSS). You can re balance 1/yr it should take you 15 minutes probably even if you aren't interested you can probably spare 15 min it would take more time to talk to an advisor. If you want someone to rebal for you I wouldn't say that is worth 50-80 basis points.
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 06, 2016 6:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: American Funds: You can beat the Index
Replies: 23
Views: 4688

Re: American Funds: You can beat the Index

As Lackey said their claim is very misleading at best. All of the their US growth and income funds have under performed Vanguard Total Stock market over the past 10 years that is a fact look in Morningstar. With in index fund you get the market return. You get beating 85% of active funds. Here is index vs active for for 2016. S&P does this every year: https://www.aei.org/publication/the-spi ... investing/ If you go to the link you could download the pdf.

Whoever wrote that nonsense for your retirement plan probably has a lot of money to gain from selling you stuff. They also probably know very little about investing.
by investorguy1
Mon Dec 05, 2016 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: active, passive, and factor investing
Replies: 40
Views: 4319

Re: active, passive, and factor investing

active fund = run by people with treadmill desks at Bloomberg terminals. passive funds = run by couch potatoes. I think more useful categories are: 1. hold the market (passive) 2. try and beat the market by reading tea leaves (active) 3. try and beat the market using evidence (smart beta) I think the biggest thing about factor investing is using evidence to support your decisions. If that mean don't trade a lot (passive) than you don't if the evidence suggests you should trade a lot (active) than you do. I'm pretty sure that Andrew Ang says that holding the market is the most diversified portfolio for the average person. Most people are not the exact average. We differ based on our age, location, career, risk tolerance etc. So therefore peo...
by investorguy1
Sun Dec 04, 2016 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nice short Vanguard videos on factor based investing
Replies: 31
Views: 4782

Re: Nice short Vanguard videos on factor based investing

Dead Man Walking wrote:
Moonborne wrote:My conclusion: the current offer of factor ETF's/funds for retail investors is sub-par. Factor portfolios require a high degree of customization: what factors to include, how to measure them, how to weight them, and how to avoid imbalanced factor exposure.
You have described the crux of the problem with factor investing for the majority of diy investors.

DMW
Whats wrong with VBR? Vanguard small cap value you get both size and value factors for 8 basis points. Maybe it isn't as small as other funds but still is smaller and valueyer than total stock market.
by investorguy1
Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shocking Bogle quotes
Replies: 19
Views: 3708

Re: Shocking Bogle quotes

goingup wrote:Nothing the slightest bit shocking to me.
I understand if you are not shocked by any of the quotes. In fact if you read John Bogle on investing you already know what he said. But are you honestly going to tell me that you can't understand why someone would find this statement from Jack shocking? "older investor would almost certainly seek stocks with higher yields and a growing income stream, at lower risk" Hello this is called factor investing! In other places he has said that he doesn't believe in it. All the quotes were things that were very surprising to me and apparently some others feel the same way. I don't expect everyone to be shocked by all but I do expect many to be very surprised by some.
by investorguy1
Sun Dec 04, 2016 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shocking Bogle quotes
Replies: 19
Views: 3708

Re: Shocking Bogle quotes

B. Wellington & mickeyd – If you have read “John Bogle on Investing” or others of his books than perhaps you aren’t surprised. However, if you get more information about Jack from reading this forum than you have from reading his books (I’ve only read a couple) then you might get a different impression. I see two general categories of Bogle heads, those who cap weight period and those who do other stuff. I think Jack favors Cap weight and forget it over most other options. However, from the book it seems to me that he is open to other strategies and acknowledges their benefits recognizing things like tilting and market timing in the form of lowering stock exposure during times of extreme valuations as reasonable positions for some to ta...