Search found 542 matches

by investorguy1
Fri Dec 30, 2016 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The man vs. machine argument and how thinking can hurt you!
Replies: 26
Views: 3058

Re: The man vs. machine argument and how thinking can hurt you!

The machine is simply made up of the inputs that the man could put into the algorithm. The question is what information does man know that he can't put into a machine if any? Maybe it's something like a gut feeling about CEO or product? Maybe it is just behavioral biases? Well you gotta separate tho...
by investorguy1
Wed Dec 28, 2016 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you only have 20% in bonds...
Replies: 42
Views: 8330

Re: If you only have 20% in bonds...

There certainly are some argument in favor of tips. However if you only have 20% of your portfolio in bonds then how much would you put in tips? if you put 10% well that is half your bonds so that is a big bet. 5% would be 25% of your bonds which is still a decently sized bet but this will likely no...
by investorguy1
Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are my parents in good hands with this adviser?
Replies: 88
Views: 8895

Re: Are my parents in good hands with this adviser?

You don't have to be there guy. Stick them in an asset allocation fund. They can still have a guy to give them advise that guy just don't have take money out of their portfolio because they will be taken care of. Their guy could do anything and everything else.
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 27, 2016 8:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are my parents in good hands with this adviser?
Replies: 88
Views: 8895

Re: Are my parents in good hands with this adviser?

They can go with Vanguard advisor services. Charge is 0.30% they could also use an asset allocation fund instead of the 3 fund portfolio. You have to separate advice from asset management. Maybe get all their qualified accounts into Vangaurd Life strategies fund. Then for the rest maybe they could h...
by investorguy1
Sun Dec 25, 2016 12:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard's risk score 4 for US, and 5 for int'l?
Replies: 6
Views: 1119

Re: Why is Vanguard's risk score 4 for US, and 5 for int'l?

As others pointed out US has had a lower standard deviation and that is probably what they are basing the risk on. On the other hand if I had a choice of only investing in US or the rest of the world. I would think the rest of the world is a better choice.
by investorguy1
Sat Dec 24, 2016 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance
Replies: 26
Views: 2690

Re: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance

Blueears DFA wrote a nice paper showing that really not likely to be able to time the value premium. For example, they looked at going long value when the BTM spread was higher than average and long growth when it was lower and it did worse than just staying long value. Reason pretty simple, just l...
by investorguy1
Sat Dec 24, 2016 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance
Replies: 26
Views: 2690

Re: 1 to 2 year periods of value or growth dominance

That chart looks pretty "streaky" to me. For example You don't see one month of value followed by one month of growth and back again. I would love to see a chart like this for market beta.
by investorguy1
Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard transfer nightmare....
Replies: 35
Views: 4376

Re: Vanguard transfer nightmare....

Are you saying that US bank doesn't charge for selling mutual funds? I doubt it.
by investorguy1
Fri Dec 23, 2016 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are my parents in good hands with this adviser?
Replies: 88
Views: 8895

Re: Are my parents in good hands with this adviser?

While the advisor claims to act as a fiduciary and comply with the new DOL rules (which is good) I would point out that the new fiduciary rules only apply to retirement accounts such as 401Ks and IRAs. They do not apply to non-retirement accounts. If most of your parent’s savings are in a taxable a...
by investorguy1
Thu Dec 22, 2016 8:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are my parents in good hands with this adviser?
Replies: 88
Views: 8895

Re: Are my parents in good hands with this adviser?

Here is a recent article from Larry Swedroe on Structured notes http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-fairy-tale-behind-structured-products The bottom line is they sounds like you get high returns with no risk but the truth is the "advisor" or more accurately the salesman gets a ...
by investorguy1
Thu Dec 22, 2016 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Will ETFs make mutual index funds obsolete?
Replies: 28
Views: 2716

Re: Will ETFs make mutual index funds obsolete?

Do you realize they're not even putting 6 ounces of yogurt in the cups any more? It's kind of like SoftSoap. The containers keep getting smaller and smaller. I guess it's so they can keep the price under a buck. Heck, I can barely get 10 hand washes out of a container of SoftSoap anymore. scotch ta...
by investorguy1
Wed Dec 21, 2016 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell house to invest?
Replies: 8
Views: 680

Re: Sell house to invest?

If you don't want to live in the house another option is to rent it out. If there is a lot of appreciation in the house that would leave you with a big tax bill that might me an option too. Are you moving to the trailer because you want to or just to save money? Do you need the money?
by investorguy1
Wed Dec 21, 2016 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VBR higher p/e than VTI & lower growth
Replies: 17
Views: 2474

Re: VBR higher p/e than VTI & lower growth

So I'm the only one who is surprised by the p/e? :happy What may be really surprising to you, is how bad the earnings are depending on how they're aggregated. The way Vanguard computes the P/E ratio for a mutual fund are a bit different than how an index may calculate it. The Index itself may divid...
by investorguy1
Wed Dec 21, 2016 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VBR higher p/e than VTI & lower growth
Replies: 17
Views: 2474

Re: VBR higher p/e than VTI & lower growth

David Jay wrote:
garlandwhizzer wrote:People tend to skate where the puck was, moving into asset classes that have recently outperformed...
+1
I'm not trying to skate I just find it odd that small cap value and total market have the same p/e. Jo money might be on the money.
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: sector contribution to S&P
Replies: 1
Views: 309

Re: sector contribution to S&P

Jeremy Segal has a chart in his book "Stocks for the Long Run" of the historical breakdown over time.
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should everyone use a backdoor Roth?
Replies: 16
Views: 2975

Re: Should everyone use a backdoor Roth?

Since he is in the highest tax bracket and working he would probably be better off in traditional the more he could reduce his income now the better to lower the big tax bite. Once he stops working if his tax bracket lowers maybe that would be a good time to do it. But if he is in a higher tax brack...
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Adviser Portfolio Review
Replies: 7
Views: 1400

Re: Vanguard Adviser Portfolio Review

Are you allowed to transfer while at the job? Is there a limit to the number of times you can transfer? How much longer are you planning on staying at the job? How much more do the funds cost inside than outside? What is your desired asset allocation? Do you have a company match? How much in terms o...
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VBR higher p/e than VTI & lower growth
Replies: 17
Views: 2474

Re: VBR higher p/e than VTI & lower growth

So I'm the only one who is surprised by the p/e? :happy
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 20, 2016 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VBR higher p/e than VTI & lower growth
Replies: 17
Views: 2474

VBR higher p/e than VTI & lower growth

Is this a bad time to tilt to SCV?

VBR p/e 24.4
VTI p/e 24

VBR earnings growth 8.2
VTI growth rate 6.7

Small Cap has a growth rate of 9.4 but a whopping PE of 30!
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 20, 2016 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: iShares Factor ETF Fee Cuts
Replies: 5
Views: 1400

Re: iShares Factor ETF Fee Cuts

Sunnywindy- I thought they were going after people in index funds trying to make some money off them. What I don't like is that all these providers try and charge as much as possible and will only come down if forced. I'd rather go with a company whose goal it is to reduce costs for shareholders not...
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 20, 2016 6:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Car Value For $10K Or Less
Replies: 30
Views: 2795

Re: Best Car Value For $10K Or Less

Why did no one say Hyundai Sonata? You should be able to get one for less than Honda or Toyota and they are still good cars. If you are looking for under $10k I'd say it's worth a look. I would say you have to look around and see what available in your area and test drive.
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 20, 2016 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is VBR a no-brainer over IJS?
Replies: 47
Views: 8565

Re: Is VBR a no-brainer over IJS?

VBR is only 3 basis points more than total stock market. So lets say you want to tilt 10% with IJS instead you could do 20% with VBR and you would get more small and more value for lower cost than IJS. So in terms of bang for your bucks it looks like VBR is the winner.
by investorguy1
Sat Dec 17, 2016 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ellis: "Under 40 years old - 100% in Stocks"
Replies: 54
Views: 7254

Re: Ellis: "Under 40 years old - 100% in Stocks"

...If the definition is something else, then what that else is needs to be specified, and then we can find out what the investor would be best advised to do. How about what I said above as a definite "Maybe it is the very unlikely but devastating chance that stocks crash and don't recover for very ...
by investorguy1
Sat Dec 17, 2016 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ellis: "Under 40 years old - 100% in Stocks"
Replies: 54
Views: 7254

Re: Ellis: "Under 40 years old - 100% in Stocks"

...If the definition is something else, then what that else is needs to be specified, and then we can find out what the investor would be best advised to do. How about what I said above as a definite "Maybe it is the very unlikely but devastating chance that stocks crash and don't recover for very ...
by investorguy1
Sat Dec 17, 2016 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ellis: "Under 40 years old - 100% in Stocks"
Replies: 54
Views: 7254

Re: Ellis: "Under 40 years old - 100% in Stocks"

...If the definition is something else, then what that else is needs to be specified, and then we can find out what the investor would be best advised to do. How about what I said above as a definite "Maybe it is the very unlikely but devastating chance that stocks crash and don't recover for very ...
by investorguy1
Sat Dec 17, 2016 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ellis: "Under 40 years old - 100% in Stocks"
Replies: 54
Views: 7254

Re: Ellis: "Under 40 years old - 100% in Stocks"

I could very well be totally wrong on this but I'll share my thoughts. Many suggest that if it wasn't for emotions or investor behavior 100% stocks would definitely be the prudent investment choice. I question that reasoning. The argument for going 100% socks, if you have a long time horizon, is tha...
by investorguy1
Thu Dec 15, 2016 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Damodaran on Active Vs. Passive, nice piece
Replies: 8
Views: 1667

Re: Damodaran on Active Vs. Passive, nice piece

good article. When he gets to his last comment I really don't understand his perspective. At the end he says that he would be fine with being an active investor and under performing his whole life because "he enjoys investing". That to me seems pretty silly. You could have spent that time with famil...
by investorguy1
Thu Dec 15, 2016 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why risk slicing and dicing at all
Replies: 52
Views: 5882

Re: Why risk slicing and dicing at all

Lots of people in Japan wished they didn't invest. There is no guarantee. Does that mean you should smoke all day because one guy lived till 100? Should you not wear a seat belt or use air bags because sometimes it can be worse? Of course there is no guarantee. No one is claiming that there is. But...
by investorguy1
Thu Dec 15, 2016 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why risk slicing and dicing at all
Replies: 52
Views: 5882

Re: Why risk slicing and dicing at all

it is interesting that past performance is being used to guide future results. We dont know either way. The past doesnt predict the future results. I think that is an overly simplistic view. I don't know exactly what will be but we know some things and it is irrational to ignore it. All research in...
by investorguy1
Wed Dec 14, 2016 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why risk slicing and dicing at all
Replies: 52
Views: 5882

Re: Why risk slicing and dicing at all

I bet if those who did it actually compared their returns to the total return of the S&P 500, they would be disappointed. Really? So we can look at the three domestic funds that a slice and dicer would have used with the longest inception date for them which would be 4/93 through 11/16 over which t...
by investorguy1
Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says (US) has the best investor protections and legal institutions
Replies: 88
Views: 8498

Re: Bogle says (US) has the best investor protections and legal institutions

If US companies made more money than companies should be moving to the US. But we see that the opposite is happening.
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 13, 2016 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why risk slicing and dicing at all
Replies: 52
Views: 5882

Re: Why risk slicing and dicing at all

What conclusions if any do you draw from this? Vanguard Total stock market Investor shares (since inception 4/27/1992): 9.26% Vanguard Value index fund (Since inception 11/2/1992): 9.22% Vanguard small cap value 10 yr 7.49% vs 7.41% for total and 5.88% for value From 1999 to 2016 according to portfo...
by investorguy1
Mon Dec 12, 2016 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel bashes Total Bond Market
Replies: 16
Views: 4555

Re: Burton Malkiel bashes Total Bond Market

nedsaid wrote: Probably most investors today have only seen interest rates fall and it doesn't occur to them that interest rates can have a secular trend upward as well as down. 1+ We are always prepared for the last war, rarely for the next one. Garland Whizzer according to multpl.com the current ...
by investorguy1
Sun Dec 11, 2016 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond funds vs. Dividend Funds?
Replies: 37
Views: 5841

Re: Bond funds vs. Dividend Funds?

... Also he would be paying long term gains tax which is lower than the tax on dividends which are taxed like ordinary income. Dividends can be either ordinary or qualified. Ordinary are indeed taxed as ordinary income but qualified are taxed as capital gains. It is pretty easy for dividends to be ...
by investorguy1
Sun Dec 11, 2016 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond funds vs. Dividend Funds?
Replies: 37
Views: 5841

Re: Bond funds vs. Dividend Funds?

There is a very big difference between bond funds and dividend funds. One holds bonds and the other holds stocks. Stocks are much more volatile than investment grade bonds. Dividend paying stocks are not a replacement for bonds. Thank you. Is there less of a difference between the two if a person n...
by investorguy1
Sat Dec 10, 2016 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond funds vs. Dividend Funds?
Replies: 37
Views: 5841

Re: Bond funds vs. Dividend Funds?

There is a very big difference between bond funds and dividend funds. One holds bonds and the other holds stocks. Stocks are much more volatile than investment grade bonds. Dividend paying stocks are not a replacement for bonds. The nice thing about a bond fund versus individual bonds is that you co...
by investorguy1
Wed Dec 07, 2016 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about hiring Advisor
Replies: 25
Views: 2459

Re: Thinking about hiring Advisor

I took a look at this tool from Vanguard... Sorry if you didn't find it helpful. $400,000 income puts you at the 98 percentile for income. $150,000 puts you at 90th. So for 97% of households that isn't an issue. The slider for return doesn't say it is inflation adjusted so there is no reason to thi...
by investorguy1
Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Auto Rebalance software/broker
Replies: 5
Views: 954

Re: Auto Rebalance software/broker

I would be terribly afraid of using such software because of tax issues. For instance, I did some rebalancing today. I had to sell some large-cap international. I have some in about 5 different accounts, so which one should I sell from or should I sell some from all of them? OK, I know what I would...
by investorguy1
Wed Dec 07, 2016 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Auto Rebalance software/broker
Replies: 5
Views: 954

Re: Auto Rebalance software/broker

The first thing that comes to mind is betterment and wealthfront. https://www.betterment.com/?utm_content=14544782&gclid=CjwKEAiAg5_CBRDo4o6e4o3NtG0SJAB-IatYUZs055NGpVtmvnVhbR-oCCrhgnph8GMvOs0AvoWG7hoCvTPw_wcB https://www.wealthfront.com/ Of course Vanguards PAS service would do this, as would Fide...
by investorguy1
Wed Dec 07, 2016 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Auto Rebalance software/broker
Replies: 5
Views: 954

Auto Rebalance software/broker

There are software programs for financial advisors which allow you to easily rebalance a portfolio such as iRebal, and Tamarac or a 401k. Are there any brokerage accounts where they offer this type of service? If not I hope Vanguard is reading this and starts offering this service.
by investorguy1
Wed Dec 07, 2016 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about hiring Advisor
Replies: 25
Views: 2459

Re: Thinking about hiring Advisor

I took a look at this tool from Vanguard... Sorry if you didn't find it helpful. $400,000 income puts you at the 98 percentile for income. $150,000 puts you at 90th. So for 97% of households that isn't an issue. The slider for return doesn't say it is inflation adjusted so there is no reason to thi...
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Simplyfying to 1-Fund Portfolio?
Replies: 13
Views: 2197

Re: Simplyfying to 1-Fund Portfolio?

If you want a 40/60 you could go with the Life strategies conservative growth fund. You will get the international bonds which you don't want but it could still be worth it to keep things simplified for yourself. I don't think it matters when you do it.
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 06, 2016 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about hiring Advisor
Replies: 25
Views: 2459

Re: Thinking about hiring Advisor

... it seems like giving up the ability to earn my way out of difficult situations (and lacking a guaranteed pension) makes the game more serious. All the more reason to keep more of your money so you can retire sooner. It sounds like you are worried about the market and want to do something to imp...
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 06, 2016 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about hiring Advisor
Replies: 25
Views: 2459

Re: Thinking about hiring Advisor

You could get Vanguard to do it for 0.30%. not 0.03%. Anyways if you want some fancy factor tilts you can do that by adding a couple funds like Vanguard small cap value (VBR) and international small cap (VSS). You can re balance 1/yr it should take you 15 minutes probably even if you aren't interest...
by investorguy1
Tue Dec 06, 2016 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: American Funds: You can beat the Index
Replies: 23
Views: 4154

Re: American Funds: You can beat the Index

As Lackey said their claim is very misleading at best. All of the their US growth and income funds have under performed Vanguard Total Stock market over the past 10 years that is a fact look in Morningstar. With in index fund you get the market return. You get beating 85% of active funds. Here is in...
by investorguy1
Mon Dec 05, 2016 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: active, passive, and factor investing
Replies: 40
Views: 3623

Re: active, passive, and factor investing

active fund = run by people with treadmill desks at Bloomberg terminals. passive funds = run by couch potatoes. I think more useful categories are: 1. hold the market (passive) 2. try and beat the market by reading tea leaves (active) 3. try and beat the market using evidence (smart beta) I think th...
by investorguy1
Sun Dec 04, 2016 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nice short Vanguard videos on factor based investing
Replies: 31
Views: 4099

Re: Nice short Vanguard videos on factor based investing

My conclusion: the current offer of factor ETF's/funds for retail investors is sub-par. Factor portfolios require a high degree of customization: what factors to include, how to measure them, how to weight them, and how to avoid imbalanced factor exposure. You have described the crux of the problem...
by investorguy1
Sun Dec 04, 2016 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shocking Bogle quotes
Replies: 19
Views: 3181

Re: Shocking Bogle quotes

Nothing the slightest bit shocking to me. I understand if you are not shocked by any of the quotes. In fact if you read John Bogle on investing you already know what he said. But are you honestly going to tell me that you can't understand why someone would find this statement from Jack shocking? "o...
by investorguy1
Sun Dec 04, 2016 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shocking Bogle quotes
Replies: 19
Views: 3181

Re: Shocking Bogle quotes

B. Wellington & mickeyd – If you have read “John Bogle on Investing” or others of his books than perhaps you aren’t surprised. However, if you get more information about Jack from reading this forum than you have from reading his books (I’ve only read a couple) then you might get a different impress...