Search found 1898 matches

by knpstr
Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very confused with the current market
Replies: 81
Views: 6422

Re: Very confused with the current market

- It has been history higher and higher. - the fundamental law says it will recycle every 10 years - I had been on cash for 10 months Please don't tell me I should not time the market. What's going wrong? There is nothing saying that the market must "recycle every 10 years". The general trend throu...
by knpstr
Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I am STUNNED over how much help my friends recieved with house purchase!
Replies: 47
Views: 3642

Re: I am STUNNED over how much help my friends recieved with house purchase!

I'm not stunned by this at all.

Some kids get new Mercedes in high school.
Some parents pay for college which can amount to over six-figures.
etc.
by knpstr
Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I was rear ended and the other guy wants a payout!
Replies: 101
Views: 7683

Re: I was rear ended and the other guy wants a payout!

I drive a performance car with much shorter stopping distance than average. Are you required to keep a longer following distance if you follow me? What if I have winter tires in the winter and you are plodding along in your "good enough" all seasons? Or am I required to stop as slowly as your car c...
by knpstr
Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oh my! Cardone says we need $10m net worth
Replies: 58
Views: 8466

Re: Oh my! Cardone says we need $10m net worth

I'm not going to address the notion that people "need" $10M. Skimming it seems his $10M number is the number where you can "do whatever you want to do". This is the historic/popular idea of being a millionaire from decades ago - a millionaire can afford to do whatever they please. But people having ...
by knpstr
Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 125
Views: 9327

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

Dave recommends *no* savings until you are out of consumer debt, even passing up 401k matches. Just to clear this up slightly, he does recommend having $1,000 in savings as a small emergency fund while getting out of consumer debt. I think you meant to say he recommends no investing until you are o...
by knpstr
Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?
Replies: 55
Views: 2433

Re: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?

I find this whole factor-investing propaganda as a very ironic thing coming from fama/academia; especially after he used to say (still does say?) Buffett is just lucky. I recall Munger mocking him (and the fact that he won a share of the nobel prize) in an interview since Bershire was regarded as a ...
by knpstr
Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Living on Your Investments? What Happens When a Bear Market Hits?
Replies: 53
Views: 7433

Re: Living on Your Investments? What Happens When a Bear Market Hits?

I just wanted to test Ken Moraif's assertion and he's right. A person who retired in 2000 with $1 million, used the 4% SWR method (adjusted for inflation), and had an AA of 100% equity , he'd be broke this year. However, even though staying the course has its dangers, I still think it's less danger...
by knpstr
Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Living on Your Investments? What Happens When a Bear Market Hits?
Replies: 53
Views: 7433

Re: Living on Your Investments? What Happens When a Bear Market Hits?

Thanks for the response. I deleted my original reply as I didn't mean for the discussion to devolve into another topic (that I wasn't prepared to fully present). But I shall try - I understand wealth is either generated by relative advances in efficiency or, to your point, new products that improve...
by knpstr
Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sell T & buy VZ to realize a $10,000 loss?
Replies: 14
Views: 965

Re: Sell T & buy VZ to realize a $10,000 loss?

Which do you think will be down more to year end? Since you are trying to MAXIMIZE money lost if you expect T to be down more than VZ in the coming 6.5 months hang onto T a while longer. I'd hate for you to sell T buy VZ then VZ shoot through the moon robbing you of the chance to have more losses wi...
by knpstr
Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Living on Your Investments? What Happens When a Bear Market Hits?
Replies: 53
Views: 7433

Re: Living on Your Investments? What Happens When a Bear Market Hits?

Get a bigger perspective. Markets can't reliably be timed. Dow is at $25,146 today, it can conservatively be at $1,000,000 by year 2100. Stay in for the long run, don't worry about the volatility in the meantime. How? Does it not seem ridiculous that demand for a given good increases in perpetuity?...
by knpstr
Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Living on Your Investments? What Happens When a Bear Market Hits?
Replies: 53
Views: 7433

Re: Living on Your Investments? What Happens When a Bear Market Hits?

Thanks for replies guys and thanks for the real life example sheepdog. I actually don't have that much in index funds as i only started a few years ago, however am really feeling they are overpirced at the moment e.g one index fund I have is up around 30%+ in just 2 years, so i'm not really sure wh...
by knpstr
Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Living on Your Investments? What Happens When a Bear Market Hits?
Replies: 53
Views: 7433

Re: Living on Your Investments? What Happens When a Bear Market Hits?

Bear market. It is a very rear opportunity to load equities. If you capture one bear market, you will have enough. Two, you are doing well. Three, you are doing very well. If you can capture four bear markets, you will be super wealthy. I see bear market good buying opportunity. Live well below mea...
by knpstr
Wed Jun 13, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 4878

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

... It's interesting that inflation is so low. When and why did modern-era inflation set in? When money/bonds stopped being backed by a fixed physical commodity gold/silver standard. To support JoMoney's point, an historical chart showing the deep history of inflation going back to the 1200s (at le...
by knpstr
Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Looking for ways to reduce taxes and keep more of my income]
Replies: 91
Views: 8518

Re: Getting killed on taxes - any ideas?

In my honest opinion while $100,000 seems like an outrageous amount of tax, it is "only" 22% of your pay and that's not an outrageous percentage. You make A LOT of money as ordinary income, taxes come with the territory. While real estate can be great, at your tax and income level a duplex isn't eve...
by knpstr
Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any problem opening fund "Investor", then building to "Admiral"?
Replies: 25
Views: 1552

Re: Any problem opening fund "Investor", then building to "Admiral"?

Of course not.

When you reach the $10,000 level (or any other level that admiral is at) the shares will be exchanged for admiral shares.
by knpstr
Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 125
Views: 9327

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

... Are these people better off than they would have been otherwise? Probably, but that's along the lines of what I've heard called the "better than nothing" fallacy. There can be a big gulf between "better than nothing" and adequate. DR's advice here is akin to throwing a person 200 miles offshore...
by knpstr
Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Psychology of Money - A Blog Post
Replies: 66
Views: 8861

Re: The Psychology of Money - A Blog Post

livesoft wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:21 pm
Sure, she could have left 2 to 20 times or even more to charity. But we have to remember index funds were not available most of her life.
And further to remember that while index funds are great, one can do superb without them. (sorry coming from the Dave Ramsey investment bashing thread)
by knpstr
Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 125
Views: 9327

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

Dave gets beat up a little too much on this forum in my opinion. If you follow his advice to the letter, by getting out of debt and investing your money you will get wealthy. Perhaps not as wealthy if you stayed in debt with low interest rate and invested the difference, perhaps not as wealthy as if...
by knpstr
Mon Jun 11, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which way to save for my child?
Replies: 32
Views: 1805

Re: Which way to save for my child?

I'm no expert but I believe I read Jack Bogle uses the UGMA/UTMA and the Vanguard Balanced fund for his grandkids. I recall him saying that he doesn't like 529 plans due to the restrictions on withdrawals.
by knpstr
Sun Jun 10, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why do we work?
Replies: 121
Views: 9975

Re: Why do we work?

Right now I am contemplating purchasing something nicer. We are currently in need of a new receiver for our entertainment system. I have narrowed it down to two different receivers the Arcam AVR390 or the Arcam AVR550. They cost $2500 and $3400 respectively. Obviously I can buy an even less expensi...
by knpstr
Sat Jun 09, 2018 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 659
Views: 151608

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

We can all cherry-pick various timeframes to prove the superiority of one portfolio over another, so that's an endless argument. I agree with your statement above, but Will did completely refute your point made in #1 to me saying: "The advantage of the PP is completely attributable to the years 197...
by knpstr
Sat Jun 09, 2018 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 659
Views: 151608

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

From my limited look at the PP it seems to do a good job of minimizing the downside and still gives and adequate (though lackluster) overall return. Putting a portfolio in to portfolio visualizer of: 25% US Stock, 25% short term treasury, 25% long term treasury, 25% gold with 4% withdrawals adjusted...
by knpstr
Wed Jun 06, 2018 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What If Your Plan Fails?
Replies: 46
Views: 4011

Re: Larry Swedroe: What If Your Plan Fails?

MrPotatoHead wrote:
Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:06 pm
No factor nonsense, no moss on the north side of a tree mumbo-jumbo...
Haha, well put! :beer
by knpstr
Tue Jun 05, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 159
Views: 17869

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

It is better to ultimately read the Kitces article, than they Yahoo! summary of the article. Kitces wrap up: "The bottom line, though, is simply to recognize that even market scenarios like the tech crash in 2000 or the financial crisis of 2008 are not ones that will likely breach the 4% safe withdr...
by knpstr
Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best case to convert a Bogle skeptic?
Replies: 56
Views: 4837

Re: Best case to convert a Bogle skeptic?

xbc81 wrote:
Mon Jun 04, 2018 3:24 am
This is probably a fool’s errand...
Yes it is. I would not bother with trying to "convert" him. Continue to manage it as he has since you know that is they way he'd want it anyway. Save your breath.
by knpstr
Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dilemma: what if companies stopped going public?
Replies: 27
Views: 2717

Re: Dilemma: what if companies stopped going public?

You are worrying about something which you cannot control. If the time ever came, you would just have to find the best use of your capital among the remaining available assets (which is what you should be doing now anyway). Find better and more productive things to do with your time than worry about...
by knpstr
Sat Jun 02, 2018 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment money is "Fungible"
Replies: 82
Views: 5493

Re: Investment money is "Fungible"

We don't do that. We save mostly in tax-deferred accounts and some in taxable accounts. About 25% of our investment net worth is accessible without retirement account issues while 75% is not. We cash flow most everything (vacations, property tax bills etc.) and if something came up where we couldn'...
by knpstr
Sat Jun 02, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment money is "Fungible"
Replies: 82
Views: 5493

Re: Investment money is "Fungible"

Generally, it suggests avoiding "mental accounting". Mental accounting can take many forms leading to various inefficiencies. Some examples are separate accounts for different budget items (car account, vacation account etc), "spending dividends", etc. Those are mental constructs that could lead yo...
by knpstr
Sat Jun 02, 2018 8:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have $2.5M at 30, career advice needed
Replies: 49
Views: 5175

Re: Have $2.5M at 30, career advice needed

hammond wrote:
Sat Jun 02, 2018 1:58 am
I'm really just looking for general advice on how people would approach this problem.
What is the problem? You enjoy your jobs why quit?
by knpstr
Thu May 31, 2018 7:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have $3m at 33, "approach to career" advice needed
Replies: 99
Views: 12248

Re: Have $3m at 33, "approach to career" advice needed

This is the most depressing thread, and not for the reasons you think. Other than the 40 year old that parked his can on the beach for a year, (no offense, but...) not a one of us is qualified to give you reasonable advice, because we haven’t a clue of what you are facing of feeling since 99.9% are...
by knpstr
Thu May 31, 2018 7:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have $3m at 33, "approach to career" advice needed
Replies: 99
Views: 12248

Re: Have $3m at 33, "approach to career" advice needed

I am thinking more along the lines of a franchise business. Something where you buy yourself a job but if you are smart about it you can scale it up a bit and eventually just buy yourself a job managing a group of small businesses. That would work to your goal. And if that "general idea" appeals to...
by knpstr
Mon May 28, 2018 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Living on Your Investments? What Happens When a Bear Market Hits?
Replies: 53
Views: 7433

Re: Living on Your Investments? What Happens When a Bear Market Hits?

According to portfolio visualizer a person retired in 2000 with $1M using 4%SWR method (adjusted for inflation) and 100% in VFINX would still have $427,641 in their portfolio. :beer What page are you using for that? I thought I should be able to test this in PV but I am not finding where I can set ...
by knpstr
Sun May 27, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Living on Your Investments? What Happens When a Bear Market Hits?
Replies: 53
Views: 7433

Re: Living on Your Investments? What Happens When a Bear Market Hits?

I just wanted to test Ken Moraif's assertion and he's right. A person who retired in 2000 with $1 million, used the 4% SWR method (adjusted for inflation), and had an AA of 100% equity, he'd be broke this year. However, even though staying the course has its dangers, I still think it's less dangero...
by knpstr
Thu May 24, 2018 8:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken Alternatives
Replies: 10
Views: 848

Re: Quicken Alternatives

I rather recently changed from Quicken to GnuCash. But one thing I have not setup (which you specifically asked for) is tracking investments in detail. There was some learning curve in simply migrating the data over (GnuCash accepts quicken transfer files but makes a mess of them) and I did not like...
by knpstr
Mon May 21, 2018 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special
Replies: 49
Views: 7270

Re: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special

Sensationalized headline from Larry.

More accurately it should read: "REITs aren't special" based on a quick skim of his article.
by knpstr
Mon May 21, 2018 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: will the SP500 double in 7 years?
Replies: 101
Views: 11837

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

Everything is possible. But the chance is small. fed is raising interest rate, wage inflation is coming back, oil price is going up, though we have the tax cut. Can company revenue and profit double in 7 years? I doubt. The original post was from about 6.5 years ago. We are currently over double fr...
by knpstr
Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone Deleting Facebook?
Replies: 338
Views: 24001

Re: Anyone Deleting Facebook?

I deleted it about 6 years ago.

Became much less interesting post-college life.
I do not have any "social media" accounts.
by knpstr
Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dave Ramsey on Bonds
Replies: 107
Views: 9147

Re: Dave Ramsey on Bonds

The math may say to keep things like a mortgage and low interest car payments so you can have more money to invest, but for me it never worked out. I was far better off paying off all debt then investing with impunity. Great comment. I think that is a wise statement that holds water for a lot of pe...
by knpstr
Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: On-line rent payment rec's?
Replies: 10
Views: 951

Re: On-line rent payment rec's?

I have been looking into this as well. I have not found a good solution. Actually "cryptocurrencies" are appealing to me since you can have instant transfers with minimal fees. For example with Litecoin, the sender of the payment incurs about a $0.20 fee, transactions are instant and in about 15 min...
by knpstr
Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Exit strategy for bitcoin
Replies: 88
Views: 7859

Re: Exit strategy for bitcoin

Bitcoin is here to stay. It is very unlikely to go to 0. How high will it go? Who knows. The technology it utilizes will likely revolutionize the world economy. Bitcoin is MUCH bigger than just a "new currency". As with any other investments. "Stay the course" "stop peeking" etc. You put in a small ...
by knpstr
Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regrets / Pearls
Replies: 27
Views: 4485

Re: Regrets / Pearls

1. What is an investment regret that you have? I bought I Bonds instead of bitcoin in 2011. 2. What one tip or piece of advice would you give the 20 or 30 year old you if you could go back in time? Buy bitcoins in 2011 instead of I Bonds. Which will you buy in 2018? bitcoin or I Bonds. :twisted:
by knpstr
Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how did you determine your risk tolerance?
Replies: 138
Views: 8221

Re: how did you determine your risk tolerance?

I realized that volatility isn't risk for me and that inflation is a major risk for me. Since I'm very risk adverse, I am 100% equities. I strongly suspect that if inflation is your biggest fear, mixing some TIPS in with your equities would help. In high-inflation environments, equities tend to do ...
by knpstr
Mon Feb 19, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I payoff my Mortgage?
Replies: 25
Views: 1712

Re: Should I payoff my Mortgage?

I'm not a huge fan of debt. But if your goal is to become financially free in 9 years and one vehicle you are using is rental real estate, it almost always makes sense to keep the debt and invest. For example, $206,000 is your remaining balance on your loan. You can pay that off and gain the cash fl...
by knpstr
Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: rule of thumb of when to sell your car
Replies: 50
Views: 3847

Re: rule of thumb of when to sell your car

I have been thinking about this recently as my Prius is now 11 years old - 79,000 miles.

Wife has been wanting a SUV so I may take her car which is a 2014 Fusion - 11,000 miles.

Decisions, decisions.
by knpstr
Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wisdom of Bitcoin
Replies: 90
Views: 7498

Re: Wisdom of Bitcoin

An old friend put thousands of dollars into bitcoin in 2011 and urged me to do the same. He insisted that the government was going to collapse and only bitcoin would withstand the hyperinflation. Instead, I bought VTSMX. My investment has doubled since then... and his investment made him a retired ...
by knpstr
Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are these fees for real?
Replies: 25
Views: 2460

Re: Are these fees for real?

Jgiudici wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:16 am
Is she really paying 2.04% on her account each year???? If so , is it a coincidence that the first two funds I looked at are both around 2%? Do advisers do this knowing it benefits them more by recommending funds with fees this high?
Adviser is a misnomer, it is a salesperson.
by knpstr
Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6593
Views: 1430137

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

RRAAYY3 wrote:
Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:10 pm
screaming back up to mid december! congrats to all who have survived so far.
It's the easiest thing I've ever done.
by knpstr
Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I’m not renewing my Costco membership.
Replies: 80
Views: 7998

Re: I’m not renewing my Costco membership.

I have never had a Costco or Sam's Club membership.
by knpstr
Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how did you determine your risk tolerance?
Replies: 138
Views: 8221

Re: how did you determine your risk tolerance?

I realized that volatility isn't risk for me and that inflation is a major risk for me.
Since I'm very risk adverse, I am 100% equities.
by knpstr
Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Rental Property/Income Same as Bonds
Replies: 38
Views: 2411

Re: Is Rental Property/Income Same as Bonds

We are 44(H)/39(W) with about 8% of our market investments in bonds and rest in primarily US stocks. I am working to make that 15% in bonds over the next two years. However, the thing that keeps coming up in my mind is around rental property. We have two rental properties and the equity in those re...