Search found 5984 matches

by lack_ey
Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Leveraged ETF of ETFs Targets Retirees Seeking 7% Return
Replies: 3
Views: 379

Re: New Leveraged ETF of ETFs Targets Retirees Seeking 7% Return

It's already trading. Fund page: http://strategysharesetfs.com/funds/nasdaq-7handl-index-etf/ What happens in a crash where stocks, and high yield debt lose a lot of value? Would there be a leverage call? It seem to me like it would amplify sequence of return risk if things got really bad, but gener...
by lack_ey
Fri Jan 19, 2018 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Quesiton about Bond Funds
Replies: 4
Views: 416

Re: Quesiton about Bond Funds

By the way, the percentage of US Treasuries is more like 40%, not 64%. There are agency bonds and agency MBS as well, with most of that being Fannie/Freddie/Ginnie MBS that get counted as "US government" in some situations. Part of that explains the higher yield. Of course the corporate bonds and ot...
by lack_ey
Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SCHZ investment grade bond fund
Replies: 4
Views: 214

Re: SCHZ investment grade bond fund

What does "many months" entail, anyway? Unless you're talking about around September 2017 or July-November 2016, the fund has been positive through today. Do make sure you're looking at total return including dividend payout, and not just the price. Most any investment loses money (relative to the c...
by lack_ey
Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the crypto market efficient?
Replies: 20
Views: 935

Re: Is the crypto market efficient?

ohboy! wrote:
Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:51 pm
I am going to guess that your friend is going to lose, unless he picks a couple of home-run ICOs. How often are you re-balancing?
It says monthly in the OP, and only covering top 90% market cap.
by lack_ey
Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the crypto market efficient?
Replies: 20
Views: 935

Re: Is the crypto market efficient?

Not as efficient as developed stock and currency markets. You get non-trivial discrepancies in pricings across different exchanges. You can't really short any of the cryptocurrencies except bitcoin (conversion rate to USD), and only indirectly via futures. Risk of the exchanges keeps some participan...
by lack_ey
Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Vanguard Multifactor ETF
Replies: 1
Views: 354

Re: New Vanguard Multifactor ETF

What is the new Vanguard Multifactor ETF about? What is the purpose of this? Could you clarify the intent and meaning of these questions? Are you asking about Vanguard's upcoming fund (actually, this fund/ETF is part of a launch that includes several), or are you asking more generally about what "m...
by lack_ey
Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are ETFs Really That Safe?
Replies: 26
Views: 1951

Re: Are ETFs Really That Safe?

I take it that this is a question about the ETF structure rather than a question about ETFs generally, correct? What would constitute not being safe to you? What kind of danger are you thinking about? Most ETFs are '40 Act investment funds, same as traditional mutual funds, with all of the regulator...
by lack_ey
Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Futures on inflation-linked bonds
Replies: 4
Views: 333

Re: Futures on inflation-linked bonds

Hi 24/7bull, and welcome to the forum. I looked it up for you: TIPS futures . PJW I think it's obvious the question was asked because simple searches don't turn up much. "Does X exist and where?" is a fairly reasonable question to ask where you're not sure if something just doesn't exist or is obsc...
by lack_ey
Wed Jan 17, 2018 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Floating Rate Income Funds
Replies: 6
Views: 381

Re: Floating Rate Income Funds

Are you asking more about that specific closed-end fund (which has an expense ratio not including leverage of 1.40% and has 1.37x leverage), bank loans as a category, or investable floating-rate fixed income even more broadly? Nuveen Floating Rate Income Fund (JFR) is a closed-end fund primarily inv...
by lack_ey
Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF Bond Fund ladder
Replies: 1
Views: 204

Re: ETF Bond Fund ladder

There's no guaranteed return of principal, but the uncertainty of future values is lower than for (combinations of) regular bond funds if you're interested in how much the investment will be worth X years from now specifically. If you know when you're going to be spending the money in advance, it co...
by lack_ey
Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was 2017 a unique year for the stock market?
Replies: 11
Views: 1912

Re: Was 2017 a unique year for the stock market?

No, 10% intrayear declines are common but don't happen every year. IIRC maybe there was some kind of statistic such as there being about X 10%+ drawdowns in the last X years for the US market, or some other figure where the two are similar, coming around to about 1 on average a year. But that's beca...
by lack_ey
Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Future US Equity Returns: A Best-Case Upper Limit”
Replies: 20
Views: 1640

Re: “Future US Equity Returns: A Best-Case Upper Limit”

Interesting article on future returns in equities seems to give credence to Jack's(and other's) take on future returns. What? How do you see that? One is saying 4% nominal and one is saying 4% real. Those aren't even in the same ballpark and this post disagrees strongly Bogle's take; it doesn't giv...
by lack_ey
Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it fair to assume the U.S. and Ex-U.S. stock markets will exhibit reversion to the mean?
Replies: 5
Views: 695

Re: Is it fair to assume the U.S. and Ex-U.S. stock markets will exhibit reversion to the mean?

Reversion to which mean? Of what? What's a global mean? Of returns relative to what, or valuations, or market cap, or...? If you're looking at relative market cap, that can shift over time from net stock issuance (including IPOs/delistings, public companies going private, etc.) in addition to the va...
by lack_ey
Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Municipal bonds, pension funds...time to get out of munis and into bonds, stocks?
Replies: 6
Views: 835

Re: Municipal bonds, pension funds...time to get out of munis and into bonds, stocks?

It's not only that plans are underfunded, but most are using unrealistically optimistic assumptions about future returns. But historically, municipal bonds of high quality (especially AA and higher) have had low default rates, and even when they do default, pay back a large percentage of what is owe...
by lack_ey
Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are we in an Index fund bubble? Are we irrationally overlooking individual stock analysis?
Replies: 18
Views: 2608

Re: Are we in an Index fund bubble? Are we irrationally overlooking individual stock analysis?

You know how many actively managed mutual funds, hedge funds, other institutional investors, high-frequency traders, etc. there are? A lot more than there were 20-30 years ago, that's for sure. There are a lot of stock analysts in every side of the business. Manager relative performance persistence ...
by lack_ey
Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for tactical allocation?
Replies: 13
Views: 691

Re: Can the Schiller P/E ratio be used for tactical allocation?

It certainly can, but I'm pretty sure you mean this in the sense of "successfully," in which case the answer is less clear. I'm pretty sure you can devise a lot of backtests that would show outperformance using some relatively reasonable rules (i.e. not overfit and cheating), unlike if you look at t...
by lack_ey
Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do people in the forum hold foreign bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 2506

Re: Do people in the forum hold foreign bonds?

Do you count Yankee bonds as foreign? I've got some, not really deliberately but I don't see a reason to exclude them. They're in most bond funds except those specifically focusing on US government or other municipality debt, MBS, and those kinds of categories. If you mean actual non-USD bonds, no, ...
by lack_ey
Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do Preferred securities let you sleep well at night?
Replies: 13
Views: 881

Re: Do Preferred securities let you sleep well at night?

It depends what you want, but preferred stocks crashed just like equities in 2008, as measured by PFF, the main preferred etf. Plus since then, the broad equity market has outperformed preferred stocks by a huge margin. All the risk of equities in a crash, none of the upside in a bull market? http:...
by lack_ey
Sun Jan 14, 2018 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does wash sale rule apply to money market fund (VFMXX)?
Replies: 5
Views: 421

Re: Does wash sale rule apply to money market fund (VFMXX)?

Yeah, that wasn't worded correctly. The point is that for a wash sale, you need to realize a loss on a given asset and then buy it back (or something "substantially identical"*) within 30 days. You're trading in and out of the money market fund at $1.00 each time, so there's not a loss on that (or g...
by lack_ey
Sun Jan 14, 2018 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Apple Mac Mini/Pro Updates? Don't Want iMac
Replies: 14
Views: 1276

Re: Apple Mac Mini/Pro Updates? Don't Want iMac

You could build a Hackintosh.

Though really, what kind of specs/usage do you need? The 2014 Mac Mini should still chew through most tasks just fine.
by lack_ey
Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why did Vanguard start an Institutional REIT fund?
Replies: 6
Views: 753

Re: Why did Vanguard start an Institutional REIT fund?

The question is why a separate fund and not just adding an institutional plus share class to the existing fund. The REIT index fund already has an institutional share class for a $5 million investment. It would seem to be less effort to offer an institutional plus version of the original REIT index ...
by lack_ey
Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 153
Views: 24543

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

aabcd wrote:
Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:12 pm
It’s 1.42% now
For many, the municipal money market fund would be better at 1.22%. These rates jump around, though, so it may not last.
by lack_ey
Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: tracking funds,etfs etc
Replies: 5
Views: 330

Re: tracking funds,etfs etc

Morningstar growth-of-$10,000 charts would be the easiest way. Click the "chart" tab for any mutual fund. You can add ticker symbols in to compare. For some reason when on an ETF's page, the tab only shows you the price over time; you can access the same by just using the URL directly: http://quotes...
by lack_ey
Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?
Replies: 35
Views: 2429

Re: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?

Suppose I amend my remark and say: "Factor investors are making intelligent bets founded on rational analysis that certain systematic departures from the market will beat the market in risk-adjusted return? " In the case of the Larry Portfolio, his goal is to hold return constant and reduce risk, h...
by lack_ey
Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rethinking the use of Vanguard Total Bond Fund in my 3 Fund Porfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 883

Re: Rethinking the use of Vanguard Total Bond Fund in my 3 Fund Porfolio

With the exception that treasuries and munis are exempt from federal taxes. The Total Bond Fund is mostly treasuries, but also has corporate bonds, so it's not tax exempt and is usually put in tax-advantaged accounts (which is where I have mine). Treasury bonds are exempt from state income tax, not...
by lack_ey
Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: loads and fees Vanguard mutual fund and ETF
Replies: 8
Views: 451

Re: loads and fees Vanguard mutual fund and ETF

HenrysPlan2 wrote:
Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:04 pm
Thank you, I am only buying vanguard emerging market, total stock market, total international, intermediate tax excemt fund, those no fees?
They're very much not on that list (assuming by "emerging market" you mean a stock fund), so take a guess.
by lack_ey
Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A few questions on taxable fund bond fund investments....
Replies: 18
Views: 1129

Re: A few questions on taxable fund bond fund investments....

Could some one explain Why the interest rate increases and the dividend increase? I thought the bond with fix yield (yield = dividend)? There was some ambiguity and I don't think that was the intended meaning. For most individual bonds, the coupon is fixed*. A $1,000 par bond paying $15 twice a yea...
by lack_ey
Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A few questions on taxable fund bond fund investments....
Replies: 18
Views: 1129

Re: A few questions on taxable fund bond fund investments....

There's a difference between short, intermediate, and long rates, as well as differences across classes of issuers (municipal, Treasury, corporate, etc.). Remind me what the return of Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund (VWIUX) in 2017 when the Fed raised the FFR three times. Bad, right? psst...
by lack_ey
Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: question about VBTLX
Replies: 27
Views: 1567

Re: question about VBTLX

Morningstar's performance table shows shows a 1 year return of 2.54%. That is a total return number, dividend yield plus any increase in Net Asset Value minus expense ratio. No, the fund's dividend yield already accounts for the expenses (for the expense ratio) being taken out. Or you could say the...
by lack_ey
Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for the glide path to VFORX
Replies: 2
Views: 131

Re: Looking for the glide path to VFORX

Typo? I assume the title is correct. https://hostimg.co/images/2018/01/13/vanguard-TD-glidepath.png https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/target-retirement/#/mini/overview/0696 For reference, Morningstar has looked at the average across the industry and have a yearly paper about these types of ...
by lack_ey
Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab help - mutual fund vs ETF vs ThomasPartners Balanced Income - overwhelmed!
Replies: 18
Views: 866

Re: Schwab help - mutual fund vs ETF vs ThomasPartners Balanced Income - overwhelmed!

Lots of good information here. Schwab has more and varied choices in their ETF space, but that is only valuable if it offers something you want that you can't get in a mutual fund. The list of mutual funds suggested by ruralavalon above is all you really need and it is very low cost. If you like mu...
by lack_ey
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the long term average nominal yield of the total bond market index fund ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1253

Re: What is the long term average nominal yield of the total bond market index fund ?

Of which total bond market index fund? Vanguard's is the longest running, so maybe that one? What does "long term" mean to you? It's difficult to find data for something like that unless you were to pay the index provider for that info, though Vanguard does show yield on the fund page under price hi...
by lack_ey
Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on these ETFs
Replies: 3
Views: 314

Re: Thoughts on these ETFs

So, the STOXX Europe 600 is not bad for someone like me to start from, right ? That sounds fine, yes. The STOXX Europe 600 is the index that the iShares STOXX Europe 600 UCITS ETF follows. You can invest in the latter but not the former. In some cases there is a meaningful distinction between the t...
by lack_ey
Fri Jan 12, 2018 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Merrill Edge - Platinum Honors
Replies: 17
Views: 1598

Re: Merrill Edge - Platinum Honors

Actually the safest almost-money-market ETF would be SHV (ishares Treasury < 1 year). Currently yields 1.24%. Okay, if you really want to minimize rate and credit risk, there's SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL). SEC yield 1.07%. Coincidentally it actually returned more than SHV in ...
by lack_ey
Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab help - mutual fund vs ETF vs ThomasPartners Balanced Income - overwhelmed!
Replies: 18
Views: 866

Re: Schwab help - mutual fund vs ETF vs ThomasPartners Balanced Income - overwhelmed!

In an IRA, there's not much difference between mutual funds and ETFs (outside, there can be a little more of a difference based on capital gains distributions, owing to the fact that those are taxed, but that's irrelevant here). These are just containers, investment vehicles for accessing underlying...
by lack_ey
Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on these ETFs
Replies: 3
Views: 314

Re: Thoughts on these ETFs

The Euro STOXX 50 only covers Eurozone mega cap stocks. The STOXXX Europe 600 is broader, including mid caps and some (larger) small caps, and also including non-Eurozone European stocks. The iShares ETF here has 7.3 billion EUR in assets, while the Amundi product has 2.4 billion. I would expect liq...
by lack_ey
Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: question about VBTLX
Replies: 27
Views: 1567

Re: question about VBTLX

There is no way to tell what will happen to the fund if the Fed hikes rates 3 or 4 times this year because the rates the Fed sets are not the same as the rates affecting the bonds held by the fund. Also, contrary to popular commentary here, just because the "consensus" is 3 or 4 hikes, that does no...
by lack_ey
Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pfandbriefe: a better investment in high quality bonds?
Replies: 19
Views: 1148

Re: Pfandbriefe: a better investment in high quality bonds?

Since you mention activey managed funds in this sector, do you know the Templeton fund managed by Hasenstab? In Italy wealth managers often advise their clients to buy it (I think at least one of the reasons for this is that Templeton retrocedes part of the fee to the banks selling the fund, but I ...
by lack_ey
Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pfandbriefe: a better investment in high quality bonds?
Replies: 19
Views: 1148

Re: Pfandbriefe: a better investment in high quality bonds?

- "locals" which are EM bonds issued in their home currencies, usually for domestic investors - I believe there are some developed world funds that invest in these In the US, VanEck Vectors J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF (EMLC) is a $5 billion ETF, and there are some others, in addition to ...
by lack_ey
Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 162
Views: 17028

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

[*]While the interest rate is rising, the portfolio continuously loses value and reaches a minimum $1,138, i.e. a -8% loss. [*]When the interest rate levels off, the portfolio starts to gain again. how do you know when the interest rate levels off, the bond will start to gain again? if the interest...
by lack_ey
Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using 1% of portfolio to buy VIX (Volatility Index) as Hedge...
Replies: 5
Views: 745

Re: Using 1% of portfolio to buy VIX (Volatility Index) as Hedge...

It's not possible to buy VIX. If you could, I would use more than 1%, that's for sure. Also leverage. There are VIX futures, which suffer from very heavy contango. Just for reference, the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX), the largest long VIX-related product in the segment, has returne...
by lack_ey
Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to add Bonds
Replies: 10
Views: 1184

Re: When to add Bonds

There are plenty of market declines that last for a lot longer than what we've seen more recently. Sometimes you have to sell even when you don't want to. FWIW the last time the market was similarly expensive, by CAPE (Shiller PE, PE/10), this is what happened the next 15 years: https://hostimg.co/i...
by lack_ey
Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Basic (Dumb) Vanguard Question
Replies: 17
Views: 1244

Re: Basic (Dumb) Vanguard Question

For an even dumber question (don't worry, we'll get this all sorted out :wink:), do you mean mechanically what the steps are to place buy orders for mutual funds in an account (or to open a Roth IRA in the first place), or are you asking a strategic question about relative allocations between differ...
by lack_ey
Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: WSJ: Discount Brokers Win Bonuses to Push Costlier Products
Replies: 38
Views: 3124

Re: WSJ: Discount Brokers Win Bonuses to Push Costlier Products

I think it is false to proclaim these firms as discount brokers and it is a misleading way to make a story. These are NOT discount brokers, they are full service (re: full price) brokerage houses that offer some discount investments. All publicly traded brokerage houses outside of Vanguard HAVE to ...
by lack_ey
Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Merrill Edge - Platinum Honors
Replies: 17
Views: 1598

Re: Merrill Edge - Platinum Honors

Doesn't Merrill Edge have no commission on brokered CDs and treasuries? Their language is "Price & yield as quoted". I have been curious about this for a while, so clarity would help. As mentioned you can use the BIF money market fund, but I have found that is not possible in a Roth IRA at least. F...
by lack_ey
Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Merrill Edge - Platinum Honors
Replies: 17
Views: 1598

Re: Merrill Edge - Platinum Honors

Fidelity has a higher yielding settlement fund, better bond selection (including brokered CDs), no commissions on Treasury bonds, and different mutual funds available (including actually having money market funds). Essentially, Merrill Edge is relatively bad for cash or near-cash allocations. Depend...
by lack_ey
Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate bonds vs. Treasuries
Replies: 52
Views: 4180

Re: Corporate bonds vs. Treasuries

Familiarizing myself with Portfolio Visualizer is on my to do list so I need to ask. With a test like you performed what are the rebalancing parameters built into the analysis? The negative correlation with Treasuries and equities often occurs during "Flight to Quality" situations which revert to "...
by lack_ey
Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on investing in Bond Funds
Replies: 6
Views: 527

Re: Thoughts on investing in Bond Funds

Did you link the right article? It doesn't seem to match and be related to the OP. If you think the broad index funds have too much government bonds for your taste, you can use another bond fund or a combination of funds. The article even lists potential alternatives. That doesn't suggest not to own...
by lack_ey
Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Interm. Invest-Grade vs. Interm. Corp Index
Replies: 2
Views: 180

Re: Interm. Invest-Grade vs. Interm. Corp Index

The index fund is taking more risk now, both term risk (longer duration) and credit risk (lower quality). The investment-grade fund includes some Treasury bonds, and I think the securitized bonds and maybe the corporate bond allocation may be higher quality on average than what's in the index. The I...
by lack_ey
Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate bonds vs. Treasuries
Replies: 52
Views: 4180

Re: Corporate bonds vs. Treasuries

Why not cash, instead of LT treasuries, and a little more stocks to make up for the lost yield ? An asset allocation primarily consisting of stocks is going to be extremely highly correlated with more stocks, whereas the correlation between stocks and long Treasury bonds varies over time (recently,...