Search found 5545 matches

by lack_ey
Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: iShares Core Dividend Growth (DGRO)
Replies: 2
Views: 221

Re: iShares Core Dividend Growth (DGRO)

DGRO - iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF HDV - iShares Core High Dividend ETF VIG - Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF VYM - Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF Are you sure you don't mean VIG and not VYM, if you're comparing to DGRO? Are you asking about the iShares fund in particular, paying attention...
by lack_ey
Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund VS GNMA
Replies: 7
Views: 718

Re: Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund VS GNMA

The Yale model popularized by David Swensen with the Yale Endowment includes significant allocations to alternative assets, private equity, and other less liquid and typically harder to access investment schemes, including many active strategies. After it was popularized, many institutional managers...
by lack_ey
Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF
Replies: 95
Views: 4299

Re: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF

I see it, and you stated as much... Perhaps I should have indicated I wasn't seriously suggesting having a Vegas gambling vacation as part of ones investment portfolio - but if you do believe that a non-correlated negative returning asset was beneficial, I would like to hear how that would differ f...
by lack_ey
Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF
Replies: 95
Views: 4299

Re: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF

In hindsight, we know where the big dips in the market were, and the things that didn't drop (or things negatively correlated), the problem comes in to play because we can't predict in advance. If you could add a negative returning 'asset' with no correlation and expect a benefit, that means I coul...
by lack_ey
Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF
Replies: 95
Views: 4299

Re: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF

I called their institutional number early today. Turns out it's not cost. It's their dogmatic and incorrect "belief" that commodities don't diversify the portfolio. Hmm I guess Vanguard, the benevolent investment manager, knows something that Bridgewater and AQR don't. I mean they've got the smarte...
by lack_ey
Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF
Replies: 95
Views: 4299

Re: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF

Now, even though it is theoretically possible, just for fun see if you can show me a real-world example, with PortfolioVisualizer or any other tool, of a period of time of, say, more than three years, over which adding an asset wih noticeably negative return made a noticable improvement, either in ...
by lack_ey
Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF
Replies: 95
Views: 4299

Re: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF

Terminology is not really consistent, as some use ETF to mean only '40 Act open-ended funds, while others use ETFs in the broader sense and include unit investment trusts, grantor trusts, exchange-traded notes, etc. that are exchange traded. Some prefer the broader and less descriptive ETP (exchange...
by lack_ey
Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds - Ugh
Replies: 26
Views: 1911

Re: Bonds - Ugh

But they are all losing money this year in a very similar pattern, I hate to put 300K into a fund and watch it keep going down. And rates will likely go up which won't help. Every fund you mentioned is up YTD and last-1-year, at least by total return. If by "rates" you mean the yields on intermedia...
by lack_ey
Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Muted Returns -- Thoughts?
Replies: 9
Views: 1416

Re: Vanguard Muted Returns -- Thoughts?

They've been saying that for the last few years, as have many others. Just keep in mind that there's only so much information in fundamentals, economic forecasts, valuations, or whatever else, and the cone of uncertainty is pretty wide regardless. The central tendency of possible futures is not high...
by lack_ey
Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Russell 3000 Index Fund [offered at Vanguard?]
Replies: 8
Views: 556

Re: Russell 3000 Index Fund [offered at Vanguard?]

oldcomputerguy wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:22 pm
What would be the advantage of a Russell 3000 fund versus a Total Market fund such as VTSAX?
If you're an institution with some mandate or other reason to have that as a benchmark, maybe you want to track it specifically.
by lack_ey
Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factors are not characteristics but correlations
Replies: 11
Views: 742

Re: Factors are not characteristics but correlations

The consistency of a lot of the factors pre-publication and certainly before the modern era is also pretty low. Modern data mining, investment strategies, etc. could make factors worse but it's not like they were consistent to begin with, even on so-called discovery.
by lack_ey
Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is AQR long-short really less risky than TSM?
Replies: 11
Views: 710

Re: is AQR long-short really less risky than TSM?

Well, M* says that the minimum investment is $5 million. I guess I will take a pass on this opportunity. There are some brokerages where you can buy N shares for around $3K minimums in IRAs, like Fidelity. Some have access to institutional shares through advisers as well. The way fund distribution ...
by lack_ey
Wed Sep 20, 2017 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Income from Uncorrelated Commodities
Replies: 26
Views: 927

Re: Income from Uncorrelated Commodities

Have you checked options interest? There's not all that much of a market on those ETFs. And the main thing this would do is just deplete your capital (unless you reinvest), exchanging it for cash in the form of call sales, as you cap upside but participate in all the downside over time. It's not rea...
by lack_ey
Wed Sep 20, 2017 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is AQR long-short really less risky than TSM?
Replies: 11
Views: 710

Re: is AQR long-short really less risky than TSM?

First of all, it shouldn't be less risky by half. If a fund goes between 0.3 and 0.7 beta, averaging 0.5 beta over time, that's still a bit riskier than staying put at 0.5 beta. More importantly, it's not just beta with cash. The other bets add risk, just non-market risk, on top of the market exposu...
by lack_ey
Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering a Bond Ladder. Your opinion?
Replies: 5
Views: 313

Re: Considering a Bond Ladder. Your opinion?

BBB is the bottom end of investment grade and carries higher interest rates for a reason. Expect some defaults sometimes, and downgrades more frequently. Getting $14K from $400K, or 3.5%, is not an incredibly high yield. That's about what you get from intermediate-term BBB corporate bonds now. If yo...
by lack_ey
Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 2146

Re: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?

The formulation leads to the useful intuition that the passive part of the market owns the market return (minus very small costs), and the active part of the market collectively owns the market return (minus higher costs), among other things. But it is not exact in reality. Just close enough for ma...
by lack_ey
Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 2146

Re: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?

Though under Sharpe's definition, index funds following anything other than the total market are active too. If "active" and "passive" management styles are defined in sensible ways I guess the hangup here is "sensible ways". I'm not sure how lack_ey got where is but I would guess that he is using ...
by lack_ey
Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 2146

Re: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?

So by "managed fund" we're not referring to "the total collection of non-passive investors" (in which case the arithmetic would hold), but some particular class of the active funds? E.g. those mutual funds run by professionals, thereby leaving out amateur investors as the potential losers? If the c...
by lack_ey
Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 2146

Re: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?

I take that to mean "across the board." Generally better. By and large, are you better off picking a managed fund over an index fund? Isn't the answer to this question *necessarily* no? No data needed? https://web.stanford.edu/~wfsharpe/art/active/active.htm No, definitely not, even if you ignore a...
by lack_ey
Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the main purpose of rebalancing?
Replies: 56
Views: 4025

Re: What is the main purpose of rebalancing?

It is portfolio maintenance, bringing your allocation closer to what you actually intend, after market forces have caused it to drift out of alignment. As such it can be, or is usually thought of as a form of risk management. In the usual formulation, bringing allocations back to fixed percentages, ...
by lack_ey
Sun Sep 17, 2017 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty
Replies: 41
Views: 2649

Re: The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty

Risk in most contexts is a potential negative outcome, or the likelihood of such an outcome, with the context telling you which is meant. In some more technical settings, it may be more the product (multiplication) between likelihood of bad outcomes and the effect of them. Uncertainty is not knowing...
by lack_ey
Sun Sep 17, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will happen to a USD Hedged fund if the USD Declines, VTABX
Replies: 9
Views: 1120

Re: What will happen to a USD Hedged fund if the USD Declines, VTABX

For illustration: https://hostimg.co/images/2017/09/17/vtabx_bwx_uup.png VTABX - Vanguard International Bond Index (USD hedged, longish intermediate term) BWX - SPDR Bloomberg Barclays International Treasury Bond (unhedged, longish intermediate term) UUP - Powershares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (gai...
by lack_ey
Sun Sep 17, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vangard Index Fund through Merrill Edge
Replies: 26
Views: 1960

Re: Vangard Index Fund through Merrill Edge

and if i plan on buying and holding, i really shouldn't be concerned about transaction fees anyway? If you had 12 mutual fund purchases of $458 each in a Roth IRA per year and each incurred a $19.95 transaction fee, I would consider that a concern. If it's one buy order a year without any selling, ...
by lack_ey
Sun Sep 17, 2017 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vangard Index Fund through Merrill Edge
Replies: 26
Views: 1960

Re: Vangard Index Fund through Merrill Edge

just to play devils advocate, say I did want want to keep my Merill Edge account, does anyone know of balanced index funds with low expense ratios that would be a reasonable purchase for know nothing investors like myself? Vanguard Balanced Index (VBINX) or Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth (VS...
by lack_ey
Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki article - Bitcoin
Replies: 37
Views: 3873

Re: Wiki article - Bitcoin

There are still plenty of important differences with precious metals, but the "digital gold" formulation is not something unique to here. There's for example an article in The Guardian calling it just that: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/may/15/digital-gold-why-hackers-love-bitcoin-rans...
by lack_ey
Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 2146

Re: International Equity: Are managed funds better than Index funds?

On average, no. https://hostimg.co/images/2017/09/16/spiva-intl.png https://us.spindices.com/documents/spiva/spiva-us-year-end-2016.pdf Now, that doesn't matter (and neither does the charts nisiprius shows) if there are persistent winners. That is, even if the average is not good, if you can pick pr...
by lack_ey
Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE over 30
Replies: 17
Views: 1376

Re: Shiller PE over 30

I could prob Google it, but what is the PE ex FANG stocks that have a huge weighting in the S&P? good point, see this: https://www.blackrock.com/investing/literature/whitepaper/bii-global-equity-outlook-august-2017.pdf I'm not a big fan of stripping out companies or doing a "except for XYZ" kind of...
by lack_ey
Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE over 30
Replies: 17
Views: 1376

Re: Shiller PE over 30

Well, it sure isn't peak dot-com or Japan yet. Never mind the fact that bonds aren't paying anything that special, unlike around 2000. We've had a good run that may keep going. So from here either things continue on as is, gradually deflate, prices crash once we hit some kind of triggers/shocks, or ...
by lack_ey
Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying Vanguard ETFs - TD Ameritrade Vs at Vanguard
Replies: 3
Views: 370

Re: Buying Vanguard ETFs - TD Ameritrade Vs at Vanguard

Trade execution might be a bit different at different brokers depending on the outside arrangements they have and how they route orders and to which exchanges. I couldn't say which might be better in that regard, though.
by lack_ey
Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki article - Bitcoin
Replies: 37
Views: 3873

Re: Wiki article - Bitcoin

"Asset" is too general for this purpose, as many investors will think of stocks and bonds first. You think so? I think that calls to mind real estate, valuables, etc. in addition to financial assets like stocks and bonds, whatever else has value. But do you really need to define which asset class t...
by lack_ey
Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which Bond Fund Will Perform Best With Rising Rates?
Replies: 27
Views: 3069

Re: Which Bond Fund Will Perform Best With Rising Rates?

However, mathematically, if you won't need money for 30 years, you may not need bonds at all; 100% stock should have the best 30-year returns for the risk level. If you aren't 100% stock 30 years from retirement, this is because of your psychological risk tolerance, and you may prefer shorter-term ...
by lack_ey
Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedge Your Currency Risk When Investing Abroad ?
Replies: 17
Views: 1044

Re: Hedge Your Currency Risk When Investing Abroad ?

You definitely get lower short-term volatility in local-currency terms by hedging, and the cost for hedging developed market stocks is pretty low. With WisdomTree's new funds they hope to turn the cost of partial hedging effectively negative (being additive to returns) by employing a currency tradin...
by lack_ey
Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do they set the price for ex-US mutual funds?
Replies: 4
Views: 245

Re: How do they set the price for ex-US mutual funds?

The fund gets priced at the end of US trading, with transactions with the fund occurring at that price. That does not coincide with trading for the underlying securities, at least not a lot of them. In general the pricing reflects some estimate of probable price movements in the underlying since tho...
by lack_ey
Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Securities lending revenue: DFA vs vanguard.
Replies: 14
Views: 1139

Re: Securities lending revenue: DFA vs vanguard.

Don't forget patient trading and providing liquidity. DFA is quite good at what they do, and I think some of their funds add value after expenses. Vanguard factor funds are built for the masses and to have more room to run before facing capacity issues. I'm not going to pay an advisor 1% AUM to get...
by lack_ey
Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Money Market vs Capital One 360 Money Market
Replies: 4
Views: 426

Re: Vanguard Money Market vs Capital One 360 Money Market

Vanguard Prime Money Market (VMMXX) is at 1.12% with Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (VFMXX) at 0.98%. Federal Money Market is the default settlement fund in brokerage accounts these days, what transactions get swept into by default. But you could transfer to Prime for the additional yield. Curre...
by lack_ey
Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Securities lending revenue: DFA vs vanguard.
Replies: 14
Views: 1139

Re: Securities lending revenue: DFA vs vanguard.

remember Vanguard gives all of the securities lending income to its funds. DFA like other fund shops only gives its funds the legally required 50% of the lending income. First of all, a number of fund companies return 100% to the funds. Vanguard is hardly the only one. DFA does as well. These days ...
by lack_ey
Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which Bond Fund Will Perform Best With Rising Rates?
Replies: 27
Views: 3069

Re: Which Bond Fund Will Perform Best With Rising Rates?

Of those, Intermediate-Term Investment Grade has a likely edge under those circumstances for reasons given by saltycaper. But it really depends.
by lack_ey
Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 ex-FAANGs
Replies: 26
Views: 1580

Re: S&P500 ex-FAANGs

FWIW it's not exact and the expense ratio makes this unattractive, but for US investors there is a ProShares S&P 500 Ex-Technology ETF (SPXT). You could of course own each of the other sectors individually in individual sector ETFs, which are larger/cheaper/traded more, then maybe add in some other ...
by lack_ey
Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What If U.S. Stocks Stay Expensive For Years?
Replies: 50
Views: 6866

Re: What If U.S. Stocks Stay Expensive For Years?

One aspect not always recognized is that, though U.S. companies have become more richly-valued in recent decades, they have also become much more profitable (chart below). Whether this justifies their higher valuations is hard to say — but it’s entirely possible that, yes, U.S. stocks are expensive...
by lack_ey
Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Differences between retirement-oriented funds?
Replies: 4
Views: 533

Re: Differences between retirement-oriented funds?

The target date-style retirement funds from most fund families fall in the mainstream of thought, with most trying to run a portfolio that looks inoffensive and is not far from conventional wisdom for what is thought to be prudent and relatively low volatility to manage income and withdrawals in ret...
by lack_ey
Sun Sep 10, 2017 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki article - Bitcoin
Replies: 37
Views: 3873

Re: Wiki article - Bitcoin

Almost everything in the article except the second half of the first sentence applies to cryptocurrencies more broadly. Given that there is interest in cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin, I think the existence of other popular cryptocurrencies (e.g. ethereum*, the recent bitcoin cash fork) should i...
by lack_ey
Sat Sep 09, 2017 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEC plans to approve Vanguard request to list actively managed ETFs
Replies: 10
Views: 1163

Re: SEC plans to approve Vanguard request to list actively managed ETFs

You can kind of replicate Vanguard's investment-grade bond funds with passive funds, as the performance and characteristics are so similar. More interesting would be getting Vanguard pricing with wider access via ETFs in areas like the muni bonds, especially the state funds where there aren't good o...
by lack_ey
Fri Sep 08, 2017 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEC plans to approve Vanguard request to list actively managed ETFs
Replies: 10
Views: 1163

Re: SEC plans to approve Vanguard request to list actively managed ETFs

Have there been any indications or even hints about which funds this would be?
by lack_ey
Fri Sep 08, 2017 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally savings rate raised to 1.20%
Replies: 41
Views: 5346

Re: Ally savings rate raised to 1.20%

Will some of you guys explain to me why you would want to go through the hassle of of an "Ally" savings account at 1.2% when the SEC yield on Vanguard's Ultra Short is 1.46% (1.57% for admiral shares). Is not having the price vary by ±20 bps that important? Honestly I never even considered substitu...
by lack_ey
Thu Sep 07, 2017 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does "beat the market" mean?
Replies: 40
Views: 1677

Re: What does "beat the market" mean?

I think that's unfair to Morningstar. (I can't speak to Lipper, I don't know anything about their ratings). The whole point of Morningstar's star ratings is that they do take risk into account, and they do compare only to other funds in the same Morningstar "style box." My point is that the style b...
by lack_ey
Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond diversification
Replies: 9
Views: 730

Re: Bond diversification

All my bonds are investment grade, both corporate & fed. No junk bonds. Mostly total bond & Welesley That would result in more than 0% long-term bonds. And more than 15% short term, under any typical definition of what those are (basically everybody would say less than 3 yrs would be short term). A...
by lack_ey
Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does "beat the market" mean?
Replies: 40
Views: 1677

Re: What does "beat the market" mean?

Short search of some literature seems to show that empirical tests have focused on Hypothesis 2. Exactly why I mentioned '60s finance having that idea. Of course, this paper is 50 years old. Any newer results that change the picture? In the last couple decades it's more common to look at 3-factor, ...
by lack_ey
Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond diversification
Replies: 9
Views: 730

Re: Bond diversification

You can replace a good chunk of it with CDs, preferably direct bank CDs where you can get out with an early withdrawal penalty if necessary (or if other rates become better and it's worth the modest hit and time). I mean, with the 5-year Treasury at 1.63% and the 10-year at 2.05% with the recent dro...
by lack_ey
Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does "beat the market" mean?
Replies: 40
Views: 1677

Re: What does "beat the market" mean?

There are different ideas about risk and return out there in the real world, but one of the important frameworks comes out of academia in the form of factors (factor investing), which seeks to explain what drives stock returns. These include the size tilts (to small caps), value, etc. that were ment...
by lack_ey
Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does "beat the market" mean?
Replies: 40
Views: 1677

Re: What does "beat the market" mean?

It means more like (2). Even '60s finance with CAPM has the clearly spelled-out idea of systematic risk and return being related (and such it being very possible to take more risk than the market for higher expected return in the statistical sense). And there are plenty of index funds (non-total-mar...