Search found 5696 matches

by lack_ey
Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dave Ramsey says don't use credit cards, even if you pay them off
Replies: 30
Views: 1048

Re: Dave Ramsey says don't use credit cards, even if you pay them off

Nobody cares (should care, in the real world) what Dave Ramsey thinks because he's not an expert on anything relevant.
by lack_ey
Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intrinsic Value
Replies: 5
Views: 401

Re: Intrinsic Value

Can a stock picker subscribe to the EMH? Sure, depending on the stock picker's view of how market pricing works and the stock picker's needs Information can be priced in doesn't mean that there's no identifiable differences between stocks. Now, if you assume a rational pricing model where risk/retu...
by lack_ey
Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?
Replies: 40
Views: 2203

Re: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?

P2,4 would have same expected return as P1,3 I think that's only the case if the T-bill rate is zero. Otherwise the long-only portfolio has higher returns because it's getting the T-Bill interest. The long/short portfolio also gets T-bill interest. If it is net zero invested, that means it's sittin...
by lack_ey
Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?
Replies: 20
Views: 1253

Re: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?

It is probably true that Vanguard has the best index funds out there. Vanguard's index funds outperform the corresponding index funds from Schwab, Blackrock and Fidelity by a basis point or so even if the expense ratio is the same, because Vanguard returns all securities lending income to its share...
by lack_ey
Sun Nov 19, 2017 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 15
Views: 879

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

The averages of the averages...but he's doing something else. Sticking small samples together or using autocorrelation. Which does give me an idea about something else. Still well beyond me. There's a decomposition involved into uncorrelated principal components , which further increases the abilit...
by lack_ey
Sun Nov 19, 2017 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?
Replies: 40
Views: 2203

Re: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?

Clearly the long/short fund incurs more frictions and costs (don't forget borrowing costs on shorting stocks), and in practice also charges higher management fees, so in this scenario it is clear which way you should go. If all you want is equity factors, use the long-only funds unless they're insuf...
by lack_ey
Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?
Replies: 40
Views: 2203

Re: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?

When AQR funds are widely available to retail investors at reasonable minimums, wake me up. Until then, they might as well be DFA or Stone Ridge. They don't exist in my non-advisor retail investor world. While I empathise with the underlying sentiment...Since AQR is a sorta-passive-kinda place, the...
by lack_ey
Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?
Replies: 40
Views: 2203

Re: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?

thanks. that portfolio visualizer is a pretty cool tool. the trouble is that beta's are not stable. i agree with your point that right now QSPIX looks pretty uncorrelated to the stock market, i.e. low or zero beta. It does have a lot of leverage though. so one question is: if we get into a financia...
by lack_ey
Sat Nov 18, 2017 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?
Replies: 40
Views: 2203

Re: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?

Seeing as it would be part of my equity allocation and NOT my bond allocation your comparison isn't valid for me. So I have it right... you are recommending QSPIX as part of a bond allocation? Personally I would not recommend shoving square pegs into round holes and using this equity and bond alloc...
by lack_ey
Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 15
Views: 879

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

Is ACMTP02 the modeled term premium for a 2 year Treasury note? Yeah, that's how it's structured. ACM model, TP term premium, 02 year Treasury. It's the top green line in the graph I posted. One can find monthly changes in foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries here . There looks to be both recent and...
by lack_ey
Sat Nov 18, 2017 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?
Replies: 40
Views: 2203

Re: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?

I hold two AQR funds and I'm surprised at how well they are performing in this "melt-up" environment. As you pointed out, that's not really the environment where you expect to be glad you own them. It's a subtle sign, i think, that the aqr funds actually do have more stock market beta exposure than...
by lack_ey
Sat Nov 18, 2017 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 15
Views: 879

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

Isn't this a case of the U.S. Fed raising short term rates, but international investors piling into longer term Treasuries (driving their prices up and their yields down) — since their home country government bond yields are so low? This table shows the recent yields of longer term bonds in Europe,...
by lack_ey
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?
Replies: 40
Views: 2203

Re: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?

And, just as a reality check... because I did say "the AQR funds I've glanced at"--Rekenthaler chooses to point out four. Going to the Morningstar "portfolio" tab, AQR Long-Short Equity (QLEIX) -- and, yes, as its name implies it's long-short. AQR Equity Market Neutral (QMNIX) -- long-short AQR Sty...
by lack_ey
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 80
Views: 4918

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

Okay, if you're going to do any tactical allocations, which is a bit dangerous (though less so if just mucking around with fixed income, and not changing overall risk exposures much), you need to understand and evaluate the alternatives. What matters is not the 10-year yield but the yield relative t...
by lack_ey
Sat Nov 18, 2017 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 15
Views: 879

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

Updating. Also to bump for a little more exposure, especially given some other threads around.
by lack_ey
Sat Nov 18, 2017 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?
Replies: 40
Views: 2203

Re: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?

I think the chief argument for "alternatives" is: Unless something is different from traditional securities (stocks and bonds), it can't be better than traditional securities. Alternatives are different from traditional securities. Ergo, alternatives are better than traditional securities. The poin...
by lack_ey
Fri Nov 17, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods
Replies: 24
Views: 1288

Re: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods

FWIW you can build and model that kind of dependency, autocorrelation, however you want to think of it, into the Monte Carlo simulations. You're just getting further and further into the unknown with parameters you couldn't possibly estimate accurately and have to guess at, though.
by lack_ey
Fri Nov 17, 2017 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods
Replies: 24
Views: 1288

Re: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods

Ideally you should probably do both and then run Monte Carlo sims over a range of different assumptions. Obviously a big challenge with both approaches is that the future could be quite different from the past in ways we can't predict well. In that case the historical data is misleading and your inp...
by lack_ey
Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: ASUS Student Chromebook - thoughts?
Replies: 21
Views: 958

Re: ASUS Student Chromebook - thoughts?

I'm not a big fan of Chromebooks but they can do all the basic stuff. They're running Chrome OS, a Linux-derived operating system by Google (you know, the one that's not Android) built primarily around the Chrome browser, with applications being mostly Chrome-based. Particularly if you use Google Do...
by lack_ey
Wed Nov 15, 2017 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side
Replies: 40
Views: 2250

Re: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side

PFF really looks like the worst of both worlds here. Am I missing something obvious? I think you said it yourself: most issues are from financial institutions. So another relevant comparison, particularly if we are looking at the last 10 years, may be to financial sector stocks, or maybe a mix that...
by lack_ey
Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beta and the Market
Replies: 9
Views: 518

Re: Beta and the Market

So the beta of an Emerging Markets index fund, or European index fund is compared to the S&P 500 or total US stock market? The US market is the comparison all other diversified funds are compared to? Sure, it is the default or standard benchmark that is everywhere and is overused. In different cont...
by lack_ey
Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Beta and the Market
Replies: 9
Views: 518

Re: Beta and the Market

Depends on context. Generally you could calculate that for any given asset or market. If unspecified, usually the S&P 500 or the US stock market (though those two would be very similar).

It's just running a regression through past values (returns) to find the best fit.
by lack_ey
Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side
Replies: 40
Views: 2250

Re: Do you subscribe to taking risk only on the equity side

I don't think you should accept that you should take risk only on the equity side (though for what it's worth, even a lot of people saying this are deliberately taking term risk outside of equities). But these are not particularly good instruments for that and have limited upside, especially with co...
by lack_ey
Fri Nov 10, 2017 5:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Audiophile Headphones
Replies: 28
Views: 2135

Re: Audiophile Headphones

Hm, you missed a relatively recent Massdrop offering for the HD 6XX at $200, which is just a Sennheiser HD 650 with a slightly different color and cable. With a group buy platform like that and thousands shipped they can get a discount. I think regular price for the HD 650 is more like around $300, ...
by lack_ey
Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stable Value vs Total Bond Market Funds
Replies: 9
Views: 704

Re: Stable Value vs Total Bond Market Funds

The past return is irrelevant. Usually a stable value fund will have the yield declared somewhere. Check that. If not available anywhere, then check the latest month or quarter of returns. They regularly reset the rate, but usually not with big changes. Also see what the stipulations are on transact...
by lack_ey
Thu Nov 09, 2017 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Right Bond Allocation - Government v. Credit?
Replies: 22
Views: 2197

Re: Right Bond Allocation - Government v. Credit?

No, I am about 50-50 stock/bond. I am looking, like I guess anyone/everyone, to maximize cash flows from the fixed side while keep risk as low as possible. Here is what I am comparing on the bond side of my portfolio: Option 1 (standard bond allocation?): TBM (80% @ 2.44 yield) + TIBM (20% @ 0.74 y...
by lack_ey
Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with muni fund decision PCTEX vs VCADX
Replies: 1
Views: 109

Re: Help with muni fund decision PCTEX vs VCADX

The Vanguard fund has the higher SEC yield, which is what actually matters for returns. Also higher credit quality and lower term risk.
by lack_ey
Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard account upgrade to brokerage account prompt
Replies: 2
Views: 471

Re: Vanguard account upgrade to brokerage account prompt

For a few years now they've been trying to consolidate and have been pushing legacy mutual fund account users over to the brokerage platform. It's also been years since you could open a new non-brokerage account. See for example: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=148317 https://www.bo...
by lack_ey
Wed Nov 08, 2017 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Fund question - active vs. managed (VBMFX vs. PICYX)
Replies: 16
Views: 790

Re: Bond Fund question - active vs. managed (VBMFX vs. PICYX)

You are dealing with two different funds. One is a total market fund - government and corporate, short and long. The other I think just does intermediate corporate bonds. The checklist might work if you are comparing apples to apples but you are not. Its like trying to compare a compact hatchback w...
by lack_ey
Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total Corporate Bond ETF listing announced
Replies: 8
Views: 1140

Re: Vanguard Total Corporate Bond ETF listing announced

How is it truly a "Total" Corporate Bond ETF if it is only investment-grade bonds? Would you need high-yield exposure, or at the very least an ETF like iShares Fallen Angels USD Bond ETF (FALN) ? I don't know the answer myself, but it seems strange to call it a "Total" bond fund. Is it simply becau...
by lack_ey
Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds confuse me...
Replies: 13
Views: 1410

Re: Bonds confuse me...

Doesn't tell me current yield on Wells Fargo Stable Return fund. Found this though: Total return quarter ending 9/30/17- 0.42% and YTD 1.20%. Okay, unless it was recently raised a lot (doubt it), that looks like less than 2% annualized so probably not too interesting. I would personally just use a ...
by lack_ey
Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds confuse me...
Replies: 13
Views: 1410

Re: Bonds confuse me...

The thing about the TIPS return is that TIPS were really expensive about 5 years ago, and inflation turned out quite a bit lower than a lot of people were expecting. The yields have gone back up since. On 2012-11-07, the 5-year TIPS yield was -1.41% and the 10-year -0.80% with the 30-year at 0.33%, ...
by lack_ey
Tue Nov 07, 2017 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration [now available]
Replies: 112
Views: 25665

Re: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration

Europe has lower valuations than in Asia, on average. In a way, I like seeing that they're tilting somewhat, or not perfectly matching, say, VT. If I wanted a pure index fund, I'd buy one and pay less. I'd probably be suspicious that they're not doing anything special if all they did was match worl...
by lack_ey
Tue Nov 07, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which of this fund has less turnover ratio?
Replies: 2
Views: 138

Re: Which of this fund has less turnover ratio?

I think it's an error on their end (showing turnover of -30%). Checking US-listed funds for global equity (developed markets, mid/large cap) and the S&P 500 respectively, both typically have turnover around 3-5% to keep up with index changes from mergers/acquisitions as well as market cap and other ...
by lack_ey
Tue Nov 07, 2017 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can I install Linux on a 10-year old netbook?
Replies: 16
Views: 617

Re: Can I install Linux on a 10-year old netbook?

You need to be running a 2.4 GHz Wi-Fi network with legacy 802.11g mode support. Or maybe the network card or something else is dead, if it really sees nothing. That's the issue, not the OS. But yes, Linux. I would go really low end and lightweight, as these original netbooks with the early Intel At...
by lack_ey
Mon Nov 06, 2017 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convert VBMFX to BND?
Replies: 2
Views: 283

Re: Convert VBMFX to BND?

Sure. What else is available in the Solo 401k, though? Is it just the regular Schwab brokerage platform in terms of products offered and fee schedule? Schwab has their own Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate index fund*, Schwab US Aggregate Bond Index (SWAGX) with an ER of 0.04%. There are also competitor ...
by lack_ey
Mon Nov 06, 2017 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends make up for high mutual fund fees
Replies: 31
Views: 2022

Re: Dividends make up for high mutual fund fees

You should introduce them to Global X SuperDividend ETF (SDIV), which has a distribution yield of 6.7%, here with the fund company only taking an ER of 0.58%. :twisted:

actually, there are some MLP funds out there too, huh
by lack_ey
Mon Nov 06, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Right Bond Allocation - Government v. Credit?
Replies: 22
Views: 2197

Re: Right Bond Allocation - Government v. Credit?

The best freely available data series on credit returns that I know would be 1926-2014 here associated with [url=http://www.iinews.com/site/pdfs/JFI_Winter_2017_AQR.pdf]"The Credit Risk Premium" by Asvanunt and Richardson. Check the paper for methodology. The credit excess return series is the retur...
by lack_ey
Sun Nov 05, 2017 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Replacement for IVV (iShares Core S&P 500 ETF) on TD Ameritrade commission free ETF list
Replies: 6
Views: 499

Re: Replacement for IVV (iShares Core S&P 500 ETF) on TD Ameritrade commission free ETF list

I know this has been mentioned before but the spreads will be fine - they are driven by the spreads on the underlying securities not the volume. The depth of the order book may be an issue for large buys and you could look at Level II quotes to get a sense in a given moment. There's a difference be...
by lack_ey
Sun Nov 05, 2017 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happened in 2013 for VIPSX to drop?
Replies: 1
Views: 301

Re: What happened in 2013 for VIPSX to drop?

Rates on TIPS went up fairly substantially, over 1%, even over 1.5% on the 10-year. The fund has substantial (real) interest rate risk because the duration is generally on the high side of the single digits range. TIPS were known to be expensive in 2013, in the sense that the rates started at -1.36%...
by lack_ey
Sun Nov 05, 2017 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do if a money market fund breaks the buck?
Replies: 29
Views: 2873

Re: What to do if a money market fund breaks the buck?

In the past, it has happened exactly once. It happened to the Reserve Primary fund Wikipedia is giving me previous examples prior to the 2008 financial crisis, like Community Bankers US Government Fund in 1994. I'm not sure what you mean by "gates and liquidity controls"--I think those apply to bon...
by lack_ey
Sun Nov 05, 2017 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Replacement for IVV (iShares Core S&P 500 ETF) on TD Ameritrade commission free ETF list
Replies: 6
Views: 499

Re: Replacement for IVV (iShares Core S&P 500 ETF) on TD Ameritrade commission free ETF list

Check the spreads when trading these low-cost SPDR ETFs. These used to trade much wider, but I think after the price drops and TD Ameritrade's changes, there is more action on these and the spreads are tighter. I think you usually see $0.02 on SPTM, which has a share price of $32.12. If you have suf...
by lack_ey
Sun Nov 05, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bonds - Are they needed?
Replies: 11
Views: 714

Re: International Bonds - Are they needed?

I don't see any reason to loan money to Germany for 10 years at .5% interest and take on currency risk when I can loan it to Uncle Sam for 2.5%. Vanguard's fund is currency-hedged. I don't understand exactly how that works. It costs something and can't work perfectly, but Vanguard is hedging agains...
by lack_ey
Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: PRIMECAP Fund
Replies: 63
Views: 2757

Re: PRIMECAP Fund

I agree that consistently beating the benchmark index is not the norm for actively managed funds. I am also not in the business of trying to time the market or pick stocks. But...an actively managed fund like PRIMECAP is hard to ignore when it has on average beaten its benchmark index by over 2.5% ...
by lack_ey
Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Contrarian Fund Investing Advice
Replies: 4
Views: 644

Re: Vanguard Contrarian Fund Investing Advice

"Contrarian" and "Low Volatility" are merely marketing buzzwords that do not deliver what they promise. Chasing buzzwords could cost you a lot of money if your portfolio becomes a very weird construction as a result. What do you think they're promising? Most of the times funds do what they say in t...
by lack_ey
Thu Nov 02, 2017 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultra-Short Term Bond (VUBFX) large drop
Replies: 14
Views: 1868

Re: Ultra-Short Term Bond (VUBFX) large drop

Then the question arises: Why does Vanguard use two different methods for accruing interest in bond funds that pay out monthly? I think they may have just switched over at a certain point for new fund launches and not touched the procedure for the old ones. I checked Core Bond (actively managed), t...
by lack_ey
Wed Nov 01, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultra-Short Term Bond (VUBFX) large drop
Replies: 14
Views: 1868

Re: Ultra-Short Term Bond (VUBFX) large drop

Share price went from $10.02 to $10.00. There was a dividend distribution of $0.017 per share according to the Vanguard website. That is very much more than "some" of the drop. I checked a couple similar ETFs, and they lost about 0.02%, which coincidentally explains most of the rest of the drop. Tho...
by lack_ey
Wed Nov 01, 2017 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Market Portfolio as a single ETF?
Replies: 28
Views: 1716

Re: Global Market Portfolio as a single ETF?

columbia wrote:
Wed Nov 01, 2017 11:52 am
What would be the US Market Portfolio?
...define market.

US equity market to bond market in 2016 was 42:58 according to SIFMA. Maybe higher on stocks now, given the recent gains.