Search found 5616 matches

by lack_ey
Mon Oct 23, 2017 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 0
Views: 105

Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

Frequently it's said that the bond market prices in information about future Fed funds rate increases and other action, potential Fed unwinding of the balance sheets, economic conditions, growth, etc. And that's true—the information is known to those transacting in the markets and is reflected in pr...
by lack_ey
Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: After Market Beta’s Long Run Do you Consider Diversifying Into Other Factors?
Replies: 31
Views: 1893

Re: After Market Beta’s Long Run Do you Consider Diversifying Into Other Factors?

Increased costs are a problem with DFA multi-factor funds which require paid advisor for access. The AQR multi-factor funds have relatively high expense ratios and their QCELX multi-factor fund which operates in the LC space has actually slightly underperformed Vanguard's S&P 500 etf, VOO, since it...
by lack_ey
Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: After Market Beta’s Long Run Do you Consider Diversifying Into Other Factors?
Replies: 31
Views: 1893

Re: After Market Beta’s Long Run Do you Consider Diversifying Into Other Factors?

From your comments I think we are agreeing. Factors can explain the past but not the future. They may give us hints but to invest as though they can provide additional return or "diversification" by concentration, an oxymoron if I ever heard one, I believe is speculative. This idea also is contrary...
by lack_ey
Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: After Market Beta’s Long Run Do you Consider Diversifying Into Other Factors?
Replies: 31
Views: 1893

Re: After Market Beta’s Long Run Do you Consider Diversifying Into Other Factors?

The one point about the statement that factors explain 90% of security returns is true only in the past. If this was even true by significant margin over 50% in the future, the factors funds would be able to beat the pants off any other fund out there & this is not the case. Depending upon your tim...
by lack_ey
Sun Oct 22, 2017 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are all Vanguard Funds an Index Fund?
Replies: 15
Views: 940

Re: Are all Vanguard Funds an Index Funds?

Some traditional mutual funds are index funds, and some ETFs are actively managed. Check the prospectus or fund description for more details. For Vanguard specifically, an index fund's index is listed a number of places. In the personal investor website, check the "Portfolio & Management" tab for a ...
by lack_ey
Sun Oct 22, 2017 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3-fund of SPDRs is better than of Vanguard ETF (lower ER)?
Replies: 13
Views: 1059

Re: 3-fund of SPDRs is better than of Vanguard ETF (lower ER)?

Thanks for posting this. Now that TD dumped Vanguard, I've been having the same question over the past few days. Does Vanguard allow folks to buy SPDR indexs? If they do, I'm seriously considering transferring over. If I invest in SPDR in TD I don't want to worry about getting that index dumped in ...
by lack_ey
Sat Oct 21, 2017 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab- which money market fund? (taxable account)
Replies: 21
Views: 1076

Re: Schwab- which money market fund? (taxable account)

I wonder if the difference in yield vs ER evens out VMFXX and VMMX to be about the same, also the tax advantage if any of VMFXX ?? I believe the differnece in yield other than a few basis points is based primarily in risk for these two. US goverment obligations vs a more total market approach. I be...
by lack_ey
Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: does S&P 500 included
Replies: 1
Views: 257

Re: does S&P 500 included

The S&P 500 contains all of the 30 DJI stocks and the vast majority of the stocks in the NASDAQ-100. Generally the S&P 500 includes all of the largest US stocks listed on the NYSE and NASDAQ and then most all of the rest of the largest, with some exceptions here and there and a few mid-sized stocks ...
by lack_ey
Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Out of BND and into VTI or VEU?
Replies: 21
Views: 1539

Re: Out of BND and into VTI or VEU?

On average you should not expect much price return from that kind of bond fund, yeah. The SEC yield is a pretty decent estimate of expected return going forward (again, for this kind of bond fund where you don't see much underlying defaults and too much credit downgrades). This is glossing over some...
by lack_ey
Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles schwab - why so much cheaper?
Replies: 35
Views: 4278

Re: Charles schwab - why so much cheaper?

Some are skeptical that all of the players are for sure in this for the long run, keeping ERs low perpetually and keeping the funds open. In a taxable account, it might be worth thinking a couple or few decades down the line. I was with you until this last statement. People have been saying the sam...
by lack_ey
Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: One Total Market Index Fund vs Three Different Cap Index Fund
Replies: 14
Views: 1237

Re: One Total Market Index Fund vs Three Different Cap Index Fund

There's two potential effects: 1. long-term (average) overweighting of smaller stocks relative to the larger stocks 2. rebalancing bonus from buying low and selling high—rebalancing back to fixed percentages results in dynamic overweighting and underweighting relative to market cap weights, with ove...
by lack_ey
Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles schwab - why so much cheaper?
Replies: 35
Views: 4278

Re: Charles schwab - why so much cheaper?

In a lot of core categories, iShares (Blackrock), Charles Schwab, SPDRs (State Street), and Vanguard have very low fund fees and are comparable. Vanguard is sucking up assets like crazy, so the other three are attempting to undercut them slightly, perhaps not profitably, even losing money to get peo...
by lack_ey
Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Bond vs. Vanguard Total Bond
Replies: 2
Views: 636

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Bond vs. Vanguard Total Bond

Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund (VBIIX, VBILX, BIV) is a bit different in composition than the total bond index. It follows a 5-10 year index, so it avoids bonds with maturities more than 10 years, as well as those less than 5 years. On average, this makes the average duration (more or le...
by lack_ey
Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much tax do I pay on stocks sold through brokerage account?
Replies: 6
Views: 371

Re: How much tax do I pay on stocks sold through brokerage account?

You pay capital gains tax on the difference in purchase and sale prices. When you sell $1,000 in 3 months you incur short-term capital gains of $90.91, based on shares being worth 10% more than your purchase price (that is, 1/11th of your $11,000 is capital gains, so selling $1,000 of it means that ...
by lack_ey
Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2311

Re: Currency risk?

I know that there are 50% hedged international ETFs, which could be a reasonable compromise (depending on one's outlook). I don't believe I've ever seen such a product discussed here, however. Half hedged is not really that useful, given that you can just use two different funds, one hedged and one...
by lack_ey
Thu Oct 19, 2017 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: UVXY and contango questions
Replies: 5
Views: 307

Re: UVXY and contango questions

So is a "futures contract" not an option? When you wrote "Currently VIX is 10.29, 43VX/V7 is 10.60, 44VX/V7 is 11.00, 45VX/V7 is 11.13. The latter three are the VIX futures for the 43rd week, 44th week, and 45th week of the year. " are the 43/44/45 just the expected vix scores at those times? If so...
by lack_ey
Thu Oct 19, 2017 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2311

Re: Currency risk?

Emerging markets have more political risk than developed markets. But is political risk compensated ? (Some risks are compensated and some are uncompensated - single stock risks and currency risks are uncompensated because it's risk with no expected reward. Stock market risk and interest rate risk ...
by lack_ey
Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: UVXY and contango questions
Replies: 5
Views: 307

Re: UVXY and contango questions

http://www.proshares.com/media/fact_she ... 7988889375 Link is broken. other than it uses futures contracts on the VIX. I understand the VIX as follows: If the VIX is at 15, the market thinks there is 68% chance (one standard deviation) of a 15% swing either way over the next [time period], unsure ...
by lack_ey
Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is Ally Bank's Overdraft Transfer Service unlimited?
Replies: 7
Views: 939

Re: Is Ally Bank's Overdraft Transfer Service unlimited?

A follow-up question. Could any Ally users please tell me if by "$100 increments" they mean a $250 overdraft would result in one $300 transfer, or whether the $250 overdraft would result in three $100 transfers? One $300 transfer. Most months I let it auto-overdraft-transfer from savings to checkin...
by lack_ey
Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Relationship Between Price of VFIAX and S&P 500 Level
Replies: 5
Views: 412

Re: Relationship Between Price of VFIAX and S&P 500 Level

Your purchase price into the mutual fund reflects the market value of those underlying holdings. If the S&P 500 index dropped a lot one day, that means that the constituents lost value. Given that the fund holdings are very close to an exact weighted replica of the index holdings, that means it owns...
by lack_ey
Wed Oct 18, 2017 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u say?
Replies: 45
Views: 2221

Re: If someone held a gun to your head, and force u to gamble whether the S&P 500 will rise or fall tomorrow, what do u

From July 1926 through the end of August 2017, the US stock market was up on 55.0% of trading days. That according to Ken French data. I just added together Mkt-Rf and Rf together and compared that with zero for each day and counted occurrences. It drops to 53.9% if you look at Mkt-Rf (return above ...
by lack_ey
Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds against Renaissance Medallion Fund if Efficient Markets Hypothesis is valid?
Replies: 18
Views: 1276

Re: Odds against Renaissance Medallion Fund if Efficient Markets Hypothesis is valid?

No, I'm not. But nobody else with the money and resources is coming anywhere close. I'm just interested, to begin with, in knowing what kind of odds are against them doing it by chance alone. To be able to exploit inefficiencies to the extent that they do (clearly mostly as a result of skill), I co...
by lack_ey
Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New for Vanguard!
Replies: 28
Views: 3597

Re: New for VANGUARD!

Previous thread, still active: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=224317&newpost=3577751 Is it the Wellington and Wellesley names that are the attraction? What if they were the Smith and Jones funds? As of now, they are just two new funds with familiar names with no holdings or hi...
by lack_ey
Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds against Renaissance Medallion Fund if Efficient Markets Hypothesis is valid?
Replies: 18
Views: 1276

Re: Odds against Renaissance Medallion Fund if Efficient Markets Hypothesis is valid?

Which market? They're not so much trading stocks there, investing in the same universe as say active equity mutual funds. Obviously their trading record on any set of potential securities and derivatives is amazing and so far removed from any chance-based explanation (though apparently still some do...
by lack_ey
Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon, sometime, maybe later
Replies: 68
Views: 6938

Re: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon

As noted many times above, you completely changed the meaning, so I think you should change the title to more accurately reflect the title. They expect (i.e., they could be wrong, or this is just some idea of what is more likely to happen) that there could be (not that there will be, necessarily) a ...
by lack_ey
Tue Oct 17, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does bond length matter for investing in bond funds?
Replies: 20
Views: 1638

Re: Does bond length matter for investing in bond funds?

That is an exaggeration. Long bonds are certainly not without risk but the risk is not as much as that of stocks. An example of risk estimates for asset classes can be found here: https://portfoliosolutions.com/latest-learnings/blog/30-year-risk-and-return-forecast-2016 High yield corporates really...
by lack_ey
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration [now available]
Replies: 91
Views: 16568

Re: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration

Interesting that the equity managers listed are none of the named managers for the domestic funds. The domestic funds are kind of soft closed, right? I don't think that's over the fixed income side getting too large to handle. Wellington might be. I didn't think Wellesley was. Dividend Growth is cl...
by lack_ey
Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Giving Less in Dividends than Competitors?
Replies: 13
Views: 2100

Re: Vanguard Giving Less in Dividends than Competitors?

For what it's worth, you're both wrong in a sense: Vanguard does not have the lowest fees in a lot of categories. iShares (Blackrock), Charles Schwab, and SPDRs (State Street) undercut them slightly in a number of funds. In fact, some of the iShares ETFs listed are not the cheapest they have in thos...
by lack_ey
Mon Oct 16, 2017 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: State Street Debuts Low Cost ETFs [mostly rebranding old ones and cutting ERs]
Replies: 2
Views: 359

State Street Debuts Low Cost ETFs [mostly rebranding old ones and cutting ERs]

The fee wars continue. Product page (click the "low cost core" category): https://www.spdrs.com/product/ News article: http://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/state-street-debuts-low-cost-etfs?nopaging=1 This morning, State Street launched a dramatic new salvo in the fee war with its SPDR Port...
by lack_ey
Mon Oct 16, 2017 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2311

Re: Currency risk?

... Another weirdness is that the widely-recommended percentages for international have done nothing but go up, up, up and there is very little obvious to explain why this should be so --why Burton Malkiel should have recommended that 16% of stocks be international in 1990 and 50% e international n...
by lack_ey
Mon Oct 16, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VITAX ( vanguard tech fund )
Replies: 9
Views: 512

Re: VITAX ( vanguard tech fund )

What specifically are your trying to target and why? How long do you expect to hold, and when might you sell and under which conditions and triggers? How do you evaluate whether this was a success or failure? Do you specifically want the US tech sector as defined under the index or do you want somet...
by lack_ey
Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 175
Views: 18691

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

What you want from alternatives is at least bond-like returns with stock-like risk on the residual exposure you can't get from stocks and bonds, in a way that can plausibly work across different conditions. That is, the performance of the remainder once you subtract out the market beta and so on. So...
by lack_ey
Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration [now available]
Replies: 91
Views: 16568

Re: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration

tj wrote:
Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:00 pm
Interesting that the equity managers listed are none of the named managers for the domestic funds.
The domestic funds are kind of soft closed, right? I don't think that's over the fixed income side getting too large to handle.
by lack_ey
Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3267

Re: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

There are a number of different ways that people think about diversification. Under some of these, with a number of assumptions it follows that the total market is more diversified than subsets or reweightings of the total market. Under others, that's not necessarily the case. But the reasons for th...
by lack_ey
Sat Oct 14, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does market timing matter for long term investing?
Replies: 11
Views: 1085

Re: Does market timing matter for long term investing?

Of course it matters. The problem is not knowing ahead of time in which direction (positively or negatively) it will matter, and coming up with a plan for execution of your strategy and then actually following through. Most people are bad at this, or at least not any good. I wouldn't be better. Hist...
by lack_ey
Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: “Going Long Volatility”
Replies: 16
Views: 875

Re: “Going Long Volatility”

Thanks, lack_ey. What about my surmise that the VIX index itself has zero expected return in over the long run? Am I right about that? Um... I'm not confident in saying zero, but that would be the natural and reasonable starting point. The VIX index is just a statistic computed on S&P 500 options p...
by lack_ey
Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: “Going Long Volatility”
Replies: 16
Views: 875

Re: “Going Long Volatility”

There's not any Vanguard product you could use for this purpose. FWIW this is one of those market timing kinds of hot tips. Historically this has been a very losing strategy. Think of it as akin to a type of pseudo insurance or hedging of the underlying. Usually if not given further clarification, p...
by lack_ey
Fri Oct 13, 2017 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why would anyone buy long term bonds Now?
Replies: 33
Views: 2874

Re: Why would anyone buy long term bonds?

Maybe you think with demographic trends, productivity growth slowing, etc. we get long-term secular stagnation except worse than what a lot of people are thinking, and rates are not going any higher, and you have a long investing time horizon and don't need to spend the money any time soon, so you c...
by lack_ey
Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual Fund Question
Replies: 3
Views: 386

Re: Mutual Fund Question

This is not something I've looked at before, but apparently there's an ETFMG Prime Mobile Payments ETF (IPAY). Top holdings Paypal, Mastercard, Fidelity National Information Services, American Express, Fiserv, Discover. The catch is that the ER is 0.75%. I guess with some of these narrow niches smal...
by lack_ey
Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 175
Views: 18691

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

What really counts is the performance ex-market. So if you subtract out the market beta of the stocks, what does that residual performance look like and what might it look like going forward? It could be a better deal in the end; I haven't looked in that carefully and I imagine it's difficult with t...
by lack_ey
Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Treasury Zero's Liquid?
Replies: 6
Views: 452

Re: Are Treasury Zero's Liquid?

Oh yeah, Treasury zeroes are liquid. But no, not as liquid as the regular Treasuries. Just as one measure and indication, you might see spreads more like 15 bp rather than 2 bp. There's more of a market in the regular kind.
by lack_ey
Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 175
Views: 18691

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

The returns are stocklike because they're traded as stocks, and people buy and sell with other stocks, and it can move as investor expectations for what valuations and multiples should look like change. https://hostimg.co/images/2017/10/11/Untitled.png http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?...
by lack_ey
Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 175
Views: 18691

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

The costs are the big issue here. You pay 2% for something you can get from some of the best insurance risk managers in the world for a few basis points. These managers are well known & have long track records. They include Warren Buffet & Ajit Jain at Berkshire, the Markel brothers at Markel and P...
by lack_ey
Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Very confused by Bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 2123

Re: Very confused by Bonds

... The Treasury regularly issues new bonds/notes/bills. There's an auction process to determine the exact price, the mechanics of which are not that relevant for your purposes. You can very readily also buy bonds off the secondary market (i.e. from somebody else, effectively, so not a new issue wh...
by lack_ey
Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds
Replies: 3
Views: 582

Re: Vanguard Target Retirement Funds

They're intended to be a one-size-fits-all investing solution potentially suitable for a range of retirement investors to be held for the long term, through accumulation and decumulation. It's not really about wealth maximization, and there are ancillary concerns about plan complexity (and the poten...
by lack_ey
Wed Oct 11, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest $200K cash to stock funds
Replies: 8
Views: 639

Re: Invest $200K cash to stock funds

I never heard of a fund requiring a $100,000 minimum investment. They must have a class of shares that has lower minimums, no? There are some funds with higher listed minimums than that for the most accessible share class. Vanguard actually has one (the equity market neutral fund), and others do as...
by lack_ey
Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1479

Re: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?

...The traditional academic literature on the value factor does the book-to-market sort—or other metrics—over the market minus financials and utilities... I've just looked at Kenneth R. French's website, the page entitled Description of Fama/French Factors , and I do not see either of the words "fi...
by lack_ey
Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?
Replies: 31
Views: 1479

Re: Factor investing: should financial firms be excluded when screening for value?

It's mostly a matter of convention. The traditional academic literature on the value factor does the book-to-market sort—or other metrics—over the market minus financials and utilities. So no financials included on either side (high or low value). The thinking is that particularly with financials th...
by lack_ey
Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Very confused by Bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 2123

Re: Very confused by Bonds

Is there any real difference in a CD and Bond? A brokered CD that you can buy or sell is pretty much just a specific type of bond with government backing of par value via FDIC insurance (under per-person-and-institution insurance limits). A direct CD with a bank is a bit different in the sense that...
by lack_ey
Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Very confused by Bonds
Replies: 18
Views: 2123

Re: Very confused by Bonds

1) I read about US Treasury Bills and follow the link to TreasuryDirect and their seems to be noticeable return rates I can grasp onto and they start talking about buy "at auction"! Oh My, seems like too much. These seem to be short term (0-1 YR). 2) I read about Treasury Notes (1-10 Years) seems c...