Search found 6688 matches

by lack_ey
Sun Oct 27, 2019 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is this new to engineering job hunting?
Replies: 33
Views: 4243

Re: Is this new to engineering job hunting?

Companies may have more restrictions on hiring full-time (policy or trying to maintain a leaner base of full-time people to keep long term) so they may use a fleet of contractors/consultants to help get projects completed. And then not have a high head count to pay full benefits for, especially if t...
by lack_ey
Sun Oct 27, 2019 12:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I’m done with index funds
Replies: 201
Views: 20503

Re: I’m done with index funds

Shouldn't the title of your post be "I'm done with MUTUAL funds"? The original title implies a negative feeling towards indexing when in reality it seems that your intent is to convey to the readers that you would rather buy individual securities instead of a mutual fund, indexed or not. Well, it d...
by lack_ey
Sat Sep 28, 2019 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jonathan Clements: About half your retirement accumulation is just the dollars you put in
Replies: 92
Views: 14303

Re: Jonathan Clements: About half your retirement accumulation is just the dollars you put in

Clements makes reasonable assumptions about forward returns, but FWIW historically the returns have been higher, so a greater percentage could have been from investment returns and not contributions. And there could be significant difference based on realized returns over the accumulation phase (get...
by lack_ey
Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investing in my Company Stock Plan (ESPP) - is it worth it?
Replies: 39
Views: 2145

Re: Investing in my Company Stock Plan (ESPP) - is it worth it?

Given that it's immediately vested, you should immediately sign up (for the $1500). Of course a single stock has risks, but the return is too high to pass up. You're basically getting $1500 minus taxes for reweighting your asset allocation a little bit. Every stock on the market is approximately wor...
by lack_ey
Sat Aug 24, 2019 9:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 3 Stocks Are > 16% of Portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 1352

Re: 3 Stocks Are > 16% of Portfolio

Also, is there a rule of thumb for how much one should have of any one equity in their portfolio? I think they are all good companies, but one never knows! Not a rule of thumb per se but in general the factors that affect this are the volatility of the stock, the volatility of the stock's sector, a...
by lack_ey
Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: White collars- How much is your work downtime?
Replies: 203
Views: 17716

Re: White collars- How much is your work downtime?

Percentage? It's hard to say but including lunch, I guess 10% of the about 45-55 hours a week typically. There's perpetually weeks' worth of work waiting in the backlog that needs to eventually be done by someone on the team. Everybody on the scrum team keeps busy. That's all for one project; I'm al...
by lack_ey
Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taking a graduate data science job offer, or doing a MSc in Statistics
Replies: 34
Views: 2324

Re: Taking a graduate data science job offer, or doing a MSc in Statistics

I would get more information about career paths at the company (and maybe for other employers, as maybe it's different across the pond and everything below is wrong), and also assess the feasibility of getting the M.S. later. In a lot of orgs the data science path (as distinct from data analyst role...
by lack_ey
Tue Aug 06, 2019 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Investing Question
Replies: 9
Views: 733

Re: International Investing Question

I'm not going to address the investment thesis there, so moving on (dangerously?) to implementation, I gather that you're looking for something east / southeast Asia ex-Japan, ex-China? FWIW Taiwan and South Korea have pretty high GDP per capita, and I don't think manufacturing is particularly going...
by lack_ey
Thu Jul 18, 2019 7:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Strategy Input Appreciated
Replies: 16
Views: 1256

Re: Bond Strategy Input Appreciated

That falls in the range of "well within the mainstream" and is cheap, so not much to say. Given the stock-heavy allocation it doesn't matter a huge amount what you're doing in the bonds unless going to some extreme, which this is not. I'd pay more attention to the stock/bond split and what's going o...
by lack_ey
Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Agree? Article: Tracking the Agg? Why the Bond Index May Not Work.
Replies: 14
Views: 2035

Re: Agree? Article: Tracking the Agg? Why the Bond Index May Not Work.

The Agg is weighted toward the companies and agencies that have the most debt What they fail to see is that bonds trade on an open market in which the most desirable bonds are the ones that are bought the most. The index fund simply tracks the proportion of bonds that the market wants. On the stock...
by lack_ey
Mon Jul 15, 2019 9:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VIHAX
Replies: 1
Views: 245

Re: VIHAX

International High Dividend Yield Index Fund Admiral Shares (VIHAX) tracks the FTSE All-World ex US High Dividend Yield Index. How are you defining value in (international) stocks? By holdings, it has nontrivially lower price/earnings, price/book, price/sales, etc. and higher dividend yield than a t...
by lack_ey
Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will you buy Total Bond with a negative yield?
Replies: 112
Views: 13107

Re: Will you buy Total Bond with a negative yield?

but international bonds (some countries of which have negative yields) have done better than U.S. total bond fund this year so far: total U.S. bond index +5.72% total international bond index +6.16% source: https://i.postimg.cc/VkpQMLYb/Capture.jpg This doesn't have much to do with the topic, espec...
by lack_ey
Sun Jul 14, 2019 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will you buy Total Bond with a negative yield?
Replies: 112
Views: 13107

Re: Will you buy Total Bond with a negative yield?

I'd probably not use total bond at 0%, but it depends on what credit spreads are, what the composition of total bond is at the time, how steep the yield curve is, the relationship between term and equity risk, etc. And most importantly, what banks and maybe credit unions are offering on savings acco...
by lack_ey
Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any downside to buying vanguard mutual funds through 3rd party brokers?
Replies: 3
Views: 578

Re: Any downside to buying vanguard mutual funds through 3rd party brokers?

It used to be that it was rare to be able to get admiral shares at other brokerages, but I haven't checked how that is now and especially after the changes with the share classes. Also, a number of the Vanguard funds (many or all of which you may not care about) may not be available on other platfor...
by lack_ey
Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Canada as an EM substitute
Replies: 11
Views: 1015

Re: Canada as an EM substitute

First of all, correlation in of itself doesn't necessarily mean that much. The net movement of the stock market over the course of years is a small fraction of the total movement through all the ups and downs, even at a monthly (or yearly) level. You can easily have two highly correlated assets goin...
by lack_ey
Fri Jul 05, 2019 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: question concerning Total International Bond Fund bond
Replies: 2
Views: 271

Re: question concerning Total International Bond Fund bond

Yields are down YTD overall, meaning the prices of the underlying holdings are up, so fund NAV is higher. NAV changes over the course of months for a fund like that are primarily about yield changes. A higher or lower SEC yield doesn't imply anything directly about NAV changes, but has more to do wi...
by lack_ey
Fri Jul 05, 2019 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: REITS: Domestic and International
Replies: 5
Views: 462

Re: REITS: Domestic and International

The REIT structure is not always seen in other markets (and can have different regulations), and as such Vanguard Global ex-U.S. Real Estate ETF (VNQI) is not a REIT fund, with over half the holdings being other real estate-related stocks. I would think that the answer would depend on your rationale...
by lack_ey
Thu Jul 04, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to find current weighting of index funds
Replies: 8
Views: 558

Re: How to find current weighting of index funds

There's no one universal cutoff between what constitutes a large cap vs. medium or small, or emerging vs. developed market, so any answer you get may not be the one you're specifically looking for. Furthermore, there can be some ambiguity as to the country a company should be tagged with when the co...
by lack_ey
Thu Jul 04, 2019 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to interpret different raise percents?
Replies: 41
Views: 2887

Re: How to interpret different raise percents?

The baseline level varies significantly between industries and companies, and I don't think many are explicitly starting off from inflation or are thinking in those terms, even if they should. So I would say that in some cases that sounds about right, but would frequently be too optimistic or too pe...
by lack_ey
Thu Jul 04, 2019 9:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Switch dad's muni fund from Columbia COLTX to iShares MUB
Replies: 5
Views: 417

Re: COLTX or MUB

Dump it unless maybe you have some very high confidence in that manager specifically for whatever reasons, want to gamble on said manager, and want to reach for yield in muni bonds with somewhat lower credit quality than the norm for the category. It's been riskier than the index (S&P National AMT-F...
by lack_ey
Wed Jul 03, 2019 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Global Credit Bond Fund (VGCIX)?
Replies: 6
Views: 919

Re: Vanguard Global Credit Bond Fund (VGCIX)?

Looks like a nice fund. Curious -- why not just go for a fund such as Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund Admiral Shares (VUSFX) https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/portfolio/vusfx ? Same managers, about the same yield and much lower duration. Just want to diversify to some internati...
by lack_ey
Tue Jul 02, 2019 9:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Global Credit Bond Fund (VGCIX)?
Replies: 6
Views: 919

Re: Vanguard Global Credit Bond Fund (VGCIX)?

Interesting fund, looks like the Vanguard equivalent of PIMIX Maybe, also in the Vanguard sense of (1) having a lower expense ratio, (2) sticking to less exotic instruments overall including not using leverage and not making currency bets, and (3) hewing closer to a given benchmark risk exposure an...
by lack_ey
Mon Jul 01, 2019 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why isn't the distribution yield a valuable number? (for VWIUX)
Replies: 37
Views: 2718

Re: Why isn't the distribution yield a valuable number? (for VWIUX)

My point was that the distribution payout you're getting that's above the SEC yield is essentially a return of capital. Thanks venkman! I've never heard about "the return of capital" part". Is that in any VWIUX official documents? Don't confuse it for distributions paid out by funds that are actual...
by lack_ey
Sun Jun 30, 2019 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many stocks in defensive sectors increase in value despite little to no improvements in fundamentals?
Replies: 25
Views: 2244

Re: Why do so many stocks in defensive sectors increase in value despite little to no improvements in fundamentals?

A significant portion of that could probably be explained by discount rates generally: risk preferences and pricing, perceived forward risk, value of money, expected future growth / inflation / interest rates. People are willing to pay more now. For those stocks in particular there are of course add...
by lack_ey
Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why isn't the distribution yield a valuable number? (for VWIUX)
Replies: 37
Views: 2718

Re: Why isn't the distribution yield a valuable number? (for VWIUX)

Question: There have been many discussions that conclude that distribution yield isn't a valuable number. Distribution yield is valuable for telling you about distributions, just not as valuable for returns. VWIUX (Vang. Intermed. Muni) is my $100,000 rental house. It's projected to pay me .0182% p...
by lack_ey
Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Dividend ETF Offerings: VIG, VYM, VYMI
Replies: 7
Views: 1259

Re: Vanguard Dividend ETF Offerings: VIG, VYM, VYMI

I forgot what the tickers were, so... VIG - Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (cap-weighted US stocks with increasing dividends over last 10 years) VYM - Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (cap-weighted US stocks ex-REITS with sufficiently high dividend yields) VYMI - Vanguard International High Divi...
by lack_ey
Sat Jun 08, 2019 10:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Costco or Sam's Club?
Replies: 134
Views: 9552

Re: Costco or Sam's Club?

Costco makes more money on membership fees than on actual merchandise. According to the latest quarterly filing the contribution profit was 70% fees / 30% merchandise. So they have a clear incentive to pack the stores. Membership income should be a significant focus of profits for any membership-ba...
by lack_ey
Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Costco or Sam's Club?
Replies: 134
Views: 9552

Re: Costco or Sam's Club?

If you're at Sam's, get the app and use Scan & Go, especially on a busy day. Scanning items with your phone as you go and skipping checkout is pretty rad, though there may still be a little bit of a bottleneck out the door. It's also handy to keep tabs on what you're buying and the cumulative price ...
by lack_ey
Sun Jun 02, 2019 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cutting The Cord
Replies: 24
Views: 2366

Re: Cutting The Cord

One of the key differentiators with the streaming services is the coverage or lack thereof of the broadcast networks, and which you can get depends on the specific market. There's also a difference in regional sports networks, in addition to specific sports channels that may be more obvious such as ...
by lack_ey
Fri May 31, 2019 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Adventures in Paranoia: Fidelity core positions
Replies: 3
Views: 645

Re: Adventures in Paranoia: Fidelity core positions

The funds own the Treasuries underlying the repo agreements until the seller buys them back again at the end of the term (and the market value of the collateral for a repo should be higher than the amount of cash borrowed). If the seller never comes back, the fund has gotten Treasuries out of the de...
by lack_ey
Thu May 30, 2019 9:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Newbie Question on Vanguard Bond funds
Replies: 10
Views: 1463

Re: Newbie Question on Vanguard Bond funds

If there were four bond funds given and two were suggested for higher yield, based on what I think I remember reading here from others' interactions with Vanguard, it's Vanguard Total Bond Index Vanguard Total International Bond Index Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade Vanguard Intermediate-Term I...
by lack_ey
Mon May 27, 2019 8:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need to go back to school, but afraid to stop working?
Replies: 8
Views: 879

Re: Need to go back to school, but afraid to stop working?

This is the right forum. Savings rates and "schedules" are rough heuristics that are not suitable when scenario planning like this. Financially, moving to administration is better in the medium term and much better in the long term, even if it costs a couple years. Compounding is frequently overrate...
by lack_ey
Sun May 19, 2019 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility & Inflation Hedge ETF
Replies: 6
Views: 569

Re: Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility & Inflation Hedge ETF

I'm trying to figure out what it's actually holding and its strategy. At first I didn't find much on Quadratic's site at all. They say that the fund Seeks to hedge the risk of rising long-term interest rates, an increase in inflation and inflation expectations, and an increase in interest rate volat...
by lack_ey
Sun May 19, 2019 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market grow faster than the economy?
Replies: 28
Views: 4556

Re: Why does the stock market grow faster than the economy?

Thanks all for your answers! I was not specifically having the US in mind when asking, and I don't think the fact that US companies derive some profit from abroad changes anything. The accounting point applies to the whole world as well. Replace "how can the US stock market grow faster than the US ...
by lack_ey
Wed May 15, 2019 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to interpret price of BND?
Replies: 5
Views: 979

Re: How to interpret price of BND?

It's the price that the market last traded at for that security, which now and usually is pretty close to the market value of the underlying holdings of the fund divided by the number of shares outstanding (okay, there's some further wrinkles because the underlying fund has mutual fund share classes...
by lack_ey
Sun May 12, 2019 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation-- "splitting" VTSAX and VTIAX?
Replies: 5
Views: 1334

Re: Asset allocation-- "splitting" VTSAX and VTIAX?

This is not splitting total (US) stock or total international stock into its constituent pieces. There's little point to doing that if you want to keep the weightings the same as those broader funds*. Instead, this is about shifting the allocation to re-weight the holdings, owning a higher percentag...
by lack_ey
Sun May 12, 2019 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Direction of interest rates
Replies: 19
Views: 1966

Re: Direction of interest rates

Direction of short rates should not be as hard to predict as the stock market especially in the current regime with telegraphed intentions by the central banks, known mandates, etc. Especially if we're looking say 1 month before a FOMC in the US; in the last few years there's often been a 90%+ chanc...
by lack_ey
Sun May 05, 2019 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Realistic Comp Increase with Doubling Job Responsibilities
Replies: 37
Views: 2512

Re: Realistic Comp Increase with Doubling Job Responsibilities

Out of curiosity (and maybe to help explain context), what does your one direct report do? Many people above find it strange to have only one direct report; my limited experience is that this is not strange but normally some kind of scenario where the one direct is an analyst or other kind of suppor...
by lack_ey
Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: MM equivalent ETFs..
Replies: 2
Views: 697

Re: MM equivalent ETFs..

Nothing will have an actually stable value, equivalent to a money market fund not breaking the buck. And there could be some frictions on bid/ask. Maybe you lose a penny or two on average in the round trip, per share. SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) - ER = 0.14%, most like money m...
by lack_ey
Sun Apr 28, 2019 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why so many Vanguard Funds and ETFs if their motto is simplicity and to hold.
Replies: 19
Views: 1709

Re: Why so many Vanguard Funds and ETFs if their motto is simplicity and to hold.

I don't think that simplicity is that much a foundational principle for Vanguard. That's more a Bogle and a Bogleheads thing. Vanguard's principles for investment success, which they mention on the site and in annual reports and so on, are as follows: Goals - Create clear, appropriate investment goa...
by lack_ey
Sun Apr 28, 2019 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund Nominal vs Real Average Duration
Replies: 5
Views: 755

Re: Bond Fund Nominal vs Real Average Duration

I think that would generally be the real duration (sensitivity to changes in real interest rates) for TIPS funds unless otherwise specified. The nominal duration for a TIPS fund would have to be estimated or inferred based on past behavior. Or I'm sure there are some papers out there with some metho...
by lack_ey
Sat Apr 27, 2019 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond choice in 401K - DEBTM vs DODIX
Replies: 4
Views: 494

Re: Bond choice in 401K - DEBTM vs DODIX

It's a collective investment trust (CIT). These are fairly common in 401k plans. These are usually like mutual funds from an investment point of view, but maybe have lesser reporting requirements and less apparatus around managing shareholders as the underlying investors are institutional (like a 40...
by lack_ey
Fri Apr 26, 2019 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Stock Dilution
Replies: 2
Views: 389

Re: Stock Dilution

There will be more shares, but the company will have more assets than before, possibly better long-term efficiency and market positioning than the two entities separately, etc. (in general, it could be lower, or the market perceive such a move as a negative sign or positive sign, depending) Why shou...
by lack_ey
Sun Apr 21, 2019 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?
Replies: 95
Views: 12260

Re: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?

Some notes: 1. Broadly, the distribution of potential future returns conditioned on lower starting yields is probably less favorable (higher likelihood of lower returns). Especially so for bonds. So yes, it's a concern, and you shouldn't ignore it. Now, the solution or the conclusion you're tending ...
by lack_ey
Sat Apr 20, 2019 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond fund duration
Replies: 7
Views: 859

Re: Bond fund duration

What do you take as the rationale behind that suggestion, to use a bond fund with duration similar to the holding time until the money is needed? This is important so we can understand how to extend the results to your regular contributions case. To me the advice doesn't particularly make much sense...
by lack_ey
Sat Apr 13, 2019 8:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Secondary market CD's
Replies: 6
Views: 628

Re: Secondary market CD's

You pay the higher "ask" price when you buy (someone is "asking" you to pay that price). When you do, you will get the associated 2.461% yield, before commission. If you pay the ask price, what is the reason for displaying the bid price? Well, if you're selling, you would get the lower bid price. I...
by lack_ey
Fri Apr 12, 2019 7:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to categorize rental property as an asset?
Replies: 10
Views: 741

Re: How to categorize rental property as an asset?

Real estate is very much not like stocks or bonds. It's another category, just as something like gold would be another category. I'd consider all of the property value as part of the real estate category, and then the mortgage separately as a fixed income liability (negative fixed income). It's the ...
by lack_ey
Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: real estate vs commodities as inflation hedge
Replies: 22
Views: 1547

Re: real estate vs commodities as inflation hedge

A long run fixed rate mortgage is an inflation hedge. Property might, or might not, be an inflation hedge. Because rents rise with inflation so too do real estate prices over the long run. However we can find endless examples where this did not happen. Detroit for example. Buffalo as a city used to...
by lack_ey
Wed Apr 03, 2019 7:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Considerations for Rent v Buying for 4-year stay
Replies: 16
Views: 1430

Re: Considerations for Rent v Buying for 4-year stay

There's places where you could find a comparable house that would be more like $200k relative to that kind of rent with considerably lower HOA. It's not common, but the tail end of the distribution exists. So you could break even in 3 years or less, after frictions and opportunity costs are taken in...
by lack_ey
Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:43 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Your opinion on debt?
Replies: 111
Views: 7669

Re: Your opinion on debt?

I also have a car loan at a rate of 0.9%. Keeping that. I was originally going to pay cash, but why not take this? Mortgage at 3.5%. I'm going to pay it off in around 10 years. The home price was less than 11x the yearly rent the previous owner was getting on it. Debt is just an investment that some...