Search found 6656 matches

by lack_ey
Sun May 19, 2019 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility & Inflation Hedge ETF
Replies: 6
Views: 483

Re: Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility & Inflation Hedge ETF

I'm trying to figure out what it's actually holding and its strategy. At first I didn't find much on Quadratic's site at all. They say that the fund Seeks to hedge the risk of rising long-term interest rates, an increase in inflation and inflation expectations, and an increase in interest rate volat...
by lack_ey
Sun May 19, 2019 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market grow faster than the economy?
Replies: 24
Views: 3070

Re: Why does the stock market grow faster than the economy?

Thanks all for your answers! I was not specifically having the US in mind when asking, and I don't think the fact that US companies derive some profit from abroad changes anything. The accounting point applies to the whole world as well. Replace "how can the US stock market grow faster than the US ...
by lack_ey
Wed May 15, 2019 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to interpret price of BND?
Replies: 5
Views: 907

Re: How to interpret price of BND?

It's the price that the market last traded at for that security, which now and usually is pretty close to the market value of the underlying holdings of the fund divided by the number of shares outstanding (okay, there's some further wrinkles because the underlying fund has mutual fund share classes...
by lack_ey
Sun May 12, 2019 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation-- "splitting" VTSAX and VTIAX?
Replies: 5
Views: 1093

Re: Asset allocation-- "splitting" VTSAX and VTIAX?

This is not splitting total (US) stock or total international stock into its constituent pieces. There's little point to doing that if you want to keep the weightings the same as those broader funds*. Instead, this is about shifting the allocation to re-weight the holdings, owning a higher percentag...
by lack_ey
Sun May 12, 2019 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Direction of interest rates
Replies: 19
Views: 1849

Re: Direction of interest rates

Direction of short rates should not be as hard to predict as the stock market especially in the current regime with telegraphed intentions by the central banks, known mandates, etc. Especially if we're looking say 1 month before a FOMC in the US; in the last few years there's often been a 90%+ chanc...
by lack_ey
Sun May 05, 2019 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Realistic Comp Increase with Doubling Job Responsibilities
Replies: 37
Views: 2257

Re: Realistic Comp Increase with Doubling Job Responsibilities

Out of curiosity (and maybe to help explain context), what does your one direct report do? Many people above find it strange to have only one direct report; my limited experience is that this is not strange but normally some kind of scenario where the one direct is an analyst or other kind of suppor...
by lack_ey
Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: MM equivalent ETFs..
Replies: 2
Views: 451

Re: MM equivalent ETFs..

Nothing will have an actually stable value, equivalent to a money market fund not breaking the buck. And there could be some frictions on bid/ask. Maybe you lose a penny or two on average in the round trip, per share. SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) - ER = 0.14%, most like money m...
by lack_ey
Sun Apr 28, 2019 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why so many Vanguard Funds and ETFs if their motto is simplicity and to hold.
Replies: 19
Views: 1512

Re: Why so many Vanguard Funds and ETFs if their motto is simplicity and to hold.

I don't think that simplicity is that much a foundational principle for Vanguard. That's more a Bogle and a Bogleheads thing. Vanguard's principles for investment success, which they mention on the site and in annual reports and so on, are as follows: Goals - Create clear, appropriate investment goa...
by lack_ey
Sun Apr 28, 2019 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund Nominal vs Real Average Duration
Replies: 5
Views: 693

Re: Bond Fund Nominal vs Real Average Duration

I think that would generally be the real duration (sensitivity to changes in real interest rates) for TIPS funds unless otherwise specified. The nominal duration for a TIPS fund would have to be estimated or inferred based on past behavior. Or I'm sure there are some papers out there with some metho...
by lack_ey
Sat Apr 27, 2019 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bond choice in 401K - DEBTM vs DODIX
Replies: 4
Views: 347

Re: Bond choice in 401K - DEBTM vs DODIX

It's a collective investment trust (CIT). These are fairly common in 401k plans. These are usually like mutual funds from an investment point of view, but maybe have lesser reporting requirements and less apparatus around managing shareholders as the underlying investors are institutional (like a 40...
by lack_ey
Fri Apr 26, 2019 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Stock Dilution
Replies: 2
Views: 326

Re: Stock Dilution

There will be more shares, but the company will have more assets than before, possibly better long-term efficiency and market positioning than the two entities separately, etc. (in general, it could be lower, or the market perceive such a move as a negative sign or positive sign, depending) Why shou...
by lack_ey
Sun Apr 21, 2019 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?
Replies: 95
Views: 11008

Re: Re-Examining an assumption: 45% bonds in retirement?

Some notes: 1. Broadly, the distribution of potential future returns conditioned on lower starting yields is probably less favorable (higher likelihood of lower returns). Especially so for bonds. So yes, it's a concern, and you shouldn't ignore it. Now, the solution or the conclusion you're tending ...
by lack_ey
Sat Apr 20, 2019 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond fund duration
Replies: 7
Views: 760

Re: Bond fund duration

What do you take as the rationale behind that suggestion, to use a bond fund with duration similar to the holding time until the money is needed? This is important so we can understand how to extend the results to your regular contributions case. To me the advice doesn't particularly make much sense...
by lack_ey
Sat Apr 13, 2019 8:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Secondary market CD's
Replies: 6
Views: 547

Re: Secondary market CD's

You pay the higher "ask" price when you buy (someone is "asking" you to pay that price). When you do, you will get the associated 2.461% yield, before commission. If you pay the ask price, what is the reason for displaying the bid price? Well, if you're selling, you would get the lower bid price. I...
by lack_ey
Fri Apr 12, 2019 7:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to categorize rental property as an asset?
Replies: 10
Views: 672

Re: How to categorize rental property as an asset?

Real estate is very much not like stocks or bonds. It's another category, just as something like gold would be another category. I'd consider all of the property value as part of the real estate category, and then the mortgage separately as a fixed income liability (negative fixed income). It's the ...
by lack_ey
Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: real estate vs commodities as inflation hedge
Replies: 22
Views: 1316

Re: real estate vs commodities as inflation hedge

A long run fixed rate mortgage is an inflation hedge. Property might, or might not, be an inflation hedge. Because rents rise with inflation so too do real estate prices over the long run. However we can find endless examples where this did not happen. Detroit for example. Buffalo as a city used to...
by lack_ey
Wed Apr 03, 2019 7:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Considerations for Rent v Buying for 4-year stay
Replies: 16
Views: 1326

Re: Considerations for Rent v Buying for 4-year stay

There's places where you could find a comparable house that would be more like $200k relative to that kind of rent with considerably lower HOA. It's not common, but the tail end of the distribution exists. So you could break even in 3 years or less, after frictions and opportunity costs are taken in...
by lack_ey
Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:43 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Your opinion on debt?
Replies: 111
Views: 6602

Re: Your opinion on debt?

I also have a car loan at a rate of 0.9%. Keeping that. I was originally going to pay cash, but why not take this? Mortgage at 3.5%. I'm going to pay it off in around 10 years. The home price was less than 11x the yearly rent the previous owner was getting on it. Debt is just an investment that some...
by lack_ey
Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax-efficient fund placement when considering early retirement
Replies: 28
Views: 2077

Re: Tax-efficient fund placement when considering early retirement

You can withdraw from a 401k or similar before 59.5 without tax penalty with one of the many exceptions, including taking substantially equal periodic payments (in short, you're allowed to take a reasonable amount out every year). https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/retirement-plans-faqs-regarding-...
by lack_ey
Sun Mar 10, 2019 3:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What does it mean that VBTLX lost value?
Replies: 7
Views: 1296

Re: What does it mean that VBTLX lost value?

Bond yields and prices are inversely related (for most bonds, like those in the fund you're referencing). Bond yields are not directly related to any benchmark rate such as the Federal Funds Rate. Monetary policy and the FFR would be among the considerations that bond traders have in mind. In practi...
by lack_ey
Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Replacement ETFs for extended market Index Fund
Replies: 4
Views: 241

Re: Replacement ETFs for extended market Index Fund

Just VB is pretty close. If you wanted to split with the mid cap fund, it'd be closer to 80/20 than 50/50. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/match-factor-exposure?s=y&type=1&symbol=FSMAX&symbols=VB+VO&maxPositions=2&endDate=03%2F08%2F2019&factorDataSet=0&factorModel=3&useHMLDevFactor=false&include...
by lack_ey
Sat Mar 02, 2019 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BIL, puzzling T-bill ETF: why have people put $7.9 billion into it?
Replies: 24
Views: 3633

Re: BIL, puzzling T-bill ETF: why have people put $7.9 billion into it?

I'm personally not interested in ETF's and currently all of my fixed income is in Vanguard money market funds because of low short-term Treasury bond yields. But yes, BIL does seem like a strange one. I wonder why ETF.com doesn't comment accordingly. Even here (BH), a lot of people don't seem to ca...
by lack_ey
Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BIL, puzzling T-bill ETF: why have people put $7.9 billion into it?
Replies: 24
Views: 3633

Re: BIL, puzzling T-bill ETF: why have people put $7.9 billion into it?

There have been significant inflows into BIL in the last couple of years. If you look say 5 years ago I think AUM was more like $1B. Which still begs a question, yes, just to a lesser extent. It has a purpose now as the ETF with basically the most conservative holdings. SHV (the iShares product) hol...
by lack_ey
Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative to VUSXX
Replies: 21
Views: 1239

Re: Alternative to VUSXX

You mean an actual (Treasury) money market fund or something similar, say an ETF with similar holdings?

For the latter, check SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL).
by lack_ey
Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need career advice to get into data science field
Replies: 10
Views: 857

Re: Need career advice to get into data science field

At entry level you wouldn't really need any data science-specific formal training. Would just need to have familiarity with the basics of machine learning algorithms and theory (gradient descent, regularization, model fitting, etc.), maybe some hands-on with deep learning I guess, on top of having t...
by lack_ey
Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Passive Fund in Name Only--Creating your own index to suit your fund
Replies: 12
Views: 955

Re: Passive in Name Only--Creating your own index

1) Something is badly wrong here. Index providers claim to maintain hundreds of thousands of indexes. For example, MSCI says Today, MSCI offers a family of more than 160,000 consistent and comparable indexes which are used by investors around the world to develop and benchmark their global equity p...
by lack_ey
Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3-5 year bond fund. How? simplify this for me.
Replies: 1
Views: 313

Re: 3-5 year bond fund. How? simplify this for me.

That depends, but if they're explicit about 3-5 years somewhere, that usually implies that they intend to almost entirely hold bonds 3-5 years from maturity. This means selling bonds that get closer than 3 years and buying new ones in the range. There are a number of bond index funds that follow mat...
by lack_ey
Sun Feb 03, 2019 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Subwoofer for music recommendations
Replies: 17
Views: 1099

Re: Subwoofer for music recommendations

Apparently this is an SVS hype thread, so I am here to report I am satisfied with my SB-1000 as well. Am I done? Can I leave now? :D
by lack_ey
Sun Jan 20, 2019 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Coupon Rate Short-Term Treasury Holding
Replies: 3
Views: 567

Re: High Coupon Rate Short-Term Treasury Holding

The maturities are in 2020 and 2021, a short time from now but 30 years since they were issued in 1990 and 1991 when the 30-year Treasury rates were above 8%.
by lack_ey
Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Teasury Bill, Notes & Bonds Fund Question
Replies: 3
Views: 295

Re: Teasury Bill, Notes & Bonds Fund Question

First off, I believe you mean to make the distinction between short term, intermediate term, and long term rather than bills, notes, and bonds specifically (which as described above really just map to the maturity range on issuance, not present maturity). What you're suggesting is basically trying t...
by lack_ey
Wed Dec 26, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: what mix of VXUS & VTI = VT?
Replies: 12
Views: 1076

Re: what mix of VXUS & VTI = VT?

someone correct me if wrong but i thought to replicate VT you needed VTI + VEU or VTI + VEA + VWO. VXUS i do not think holds China A shares like VT does. I could be wrong, but I believe VT, VXUS, VEU, and VSS do not include China A shares. VWO does. VXUS (total international) ≈ [VEU (large cap) + V...
by lack_ey
Wed Dec 26, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: what mix of VXUS & VTI = VT?
Replies: 12
Views: 1076

Re: what mix of VXUS & VTI = VT?

Looks like ticker symbols for Vanguard total international stock, total (US) stock, total world stock. Are you trying to target those specific ETFs or those markets (more closely the indexes that they follow)? Vanguard's website and other providers would have monthly updated data, which is unusual i...
by lack_ey
Sun Dec 16, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Factor Tilts, Such As Small Value, Increase Idiosyncratic Risk?
Replies: 52
Views: 2549

Re: Do Factor Tilts, Such As Small Value, Increase Idiosyncratic Risk?

Factor tilts in most implementations should have little impact on idiosyncratic risk, especially through basically any passive or psuedo-passive DFA-type mutual fund or ETF. These run widely diversified, not concentrated allocations. Concentrating in certain parts of the market will increase risk, b...
by lack_ey
Sun Dec 09, 2018 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 0% Long Term Capital Gain rate?
Replies: 22
Views: 3234

Re: 0% Long Term Capital Gain rate?

No, the bottom income ranges prior to 2018 also had a 0% long term capital gains tax rate (for federal income tax; state treatment could be different). What's changed is the exact breakpoints for paying 0% as opposed to 15% or 20%. Though really, those breakpoints used to change every year anyway, p...
by lack_ey
Mon Dec 03, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you get a year end bonus?
Replies: 78
Views: 5383

Re: Do you get a year end bonus?

My bonus is at end of fiscal year based on the role and the company performance, with potential subtractions for bad behavior (infractions requiring discipline and training) I think. In a technical role straight out of grad school with no other experience, my bonus is 0-20% of base salary in cash de...
by lack_ey
Sat Dec 01, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Understanding volatility in ultrashort bond funds]
Replies: 51
Views: 6114

Re: Ultrashort bond funds in freefall

Your point and graph are totally valid. These are low risk stable investments (though not that Fidelity one nisiprius posted earlier). BUT they're not quite as safe and stable as me and others may have thought. We've seen pretty stable times, not huge jumps in rates or credit spreads as of late. We...
by lack_ey
Fri Nov 30, 2018 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Understanding volatility in ultrashort bond funds]
Replies: 51
Views: 6114

Re: Ultrashort bond funds in freefall

So an "ultrashort bond fund" made of floating rate bonds and one made of fixed rate bonds are completely different animals? Not really. It's just that floating-rate bonds have duration much lower than maturity. Maturity is just the time at which a floating-rate bond pays you back the principal. The...
by lack_ey
Thu Nov 29, 2018 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What kinds of market conditions could cause a loss of principal in a MMA?
Replies: 4
Views: 675

Re: What kinds of market conditions could cause a loss of principal in a MMA?

That's a ticker symbol for a money market fund , which is not the same thing as a money market account . The latter product offered by a bank would be FDIC insured like a savings account. Fidelity Government Money Market (SPAXX) is safer than some other money market funds because its holdings are is...
by lack_ey
Mon Nov 19, 2018 10:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: MSCI ACWI ex USA IMI Index
Replies: 7
Views: 683

Re: MSCI ACWI ex USA IMI Index

The actual index has over 6,400 stocks. They're both missing stocks, some small caps in these countries. https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/3588d896-0a28-4762-b355-3844c8c81ff8 It's commonplace for all-cap type index funds not to own all the stocks in the actual indexes, especially for those with ...
by lack_ey
Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where do you get your information? Favorite blogs/sites/resources?
Replies: 25
Views: 2916

Re: Where do you get your information? Favorite blogs/sites/resources?

Well, you can definitely expect asset managers to put their own spin on understandings or "understandings" if you will sometimes, perhaps based on faulty assumptions or models, and be biased to a certain philosophy. That said, they can have some decent material, sometimes good. I don't know if I'd g...
by lack_ey
Sun Nov 18, 2018 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: POV on Vanguard's Global Wellington Fund Admiral Shares (VGWAX)
Replies: 12
Views: 2101

Re: POV on Vanguard's Global Wellington Fund Admiral Shares (VGWAX)

For reference, EUR/USD exchange rate is 1.1414 now (1 EUR = 1.1414 USD). But a forward contract to exchange 1 EUR for USD in a month gets you about 1.1440 USD, owing to the difference in short-term rates available, netting a lift of about 2.8% annualized. I don't see the number of stocks as much of ...
by lack_ey
Sat Nov 17, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1613
Views: 232222

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I wouldn’t use qspix in taxable. It trades tax inefficient categories like commodities, bonds, currencies, etc. it does have equities so it would have higher correlation to the market than a bond fund. The key is diversification. I don’t think judging that benefit since 2014 makes sense. If we get ...
by lack_ey
Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Press Release--Vanguard Continues To Expand Active Fixed Income Offerings With Proposed Global Credit Bond Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 2589

Re: Press Release--Vanguard Continues To Expand Active Fixed Income Offerings With Proposed Global Credit Bond Fund

For the uniformed (e.g. me), what is a credit bond? Credit bonds are basically bonds that aren't (U.S.) government bonds and thus have some (more) credit risk associated with them. So that's corporate bonds plus other things such as bonds from foreign agencies, governments, local municipalities, ta...
by lack_ey
Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks
Replies: 36
Views: 3151

Re: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks

By way of comparison, Vanguard's multifactor fund. If you run it through factor analysis on portfolio visualizer, even with its very short lifetime, you get a near perfect R2. That means the factors included in the model explain the performance of the fund. For the AQR funds, I don't think the resu...
by lack_ey
Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do BHs care about real asset value or stay in course?
Replies: 13
Views: 1346

Re: Do BHs care about real asset value or stay in course?

In the context of the next sentence mentioning a bubble, I interpret "real asset value" as some type of real or fundamental asset value, rather than a value of [real assets]. I care about value in multiple senses, even for traded financial assets, but value is a very weak (poor, ineffective) market ...
by lack_ey
Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent
Replies: 61
Views: 4541

Re: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent

I guess the most important thing they do currently is manage Vanguard's new line of actively managed ETFs. They also manage the Vanguard Alternative Strategies Fund and the Vanguard Market Neutral Fund, VMNFX; these seem to be there only for the purpose of supporting the Vanguard Managed Payout Fun...
by lack_ey
Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Long-term bond index vs Total bond
Replies: 3
Views: 807

Re: Long-term bond index vs Total bond

When analyzing past returns you need to understand the context of the environment over that past period and what has changed since. Yields are not what they once were, and some of the change has resulted in tailwinds for long-term bonds relative to intermediate-term bonds. https://i.imgur.com/26F9Ox...
by lack_ey
Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks
Replies: 36
Views: 3151

Re: AQR fund family's performance relative to its benchmarks

Thanks for running the numbers here. I think everybody is just taking the numbers they want to fit their existing narrative, so if you'll allow me as well... :wink: The main divide I see is actually between the long funds and the market neutral / alt funds. Basically all the long equity funds lost (...
by lack_ey
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 51
Views: 6267

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative in most of 2017, now 2018 too (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

Do you know if any of these models have had a decent predictive value? I don't think so, not really. Is this a practical exercise or just of academic interest? Note I'm not being critical just wondering if there is anything here I should employ in my investments. More just interest, but might have ...
by lack_ey
Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Permanent Portfolio - Interested in Bogleheads thoughts
Replies: 13
Views: 1767

Re: Permanent Portfolio - Interested in Bogleheads thoughts

Gold had a very good run in the 1970s, and it's not done well since 2012. Behavior in the 1970s was probably significantly driven by one-time events relating to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. Getting over 4.5% above inflation from gold over 1972-2012 is probably something of an anomaly. A...