Search found 334 matches

by Blueskies123
Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?
Replies: 99
Views: 8627

Re: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?

I left a similar post on another thread: To me the most frightening aspect of this question is what expected returns all the pension funds are using for calculating current and future benefits. Most are in 7-8%. Can you imagine if all Bogleheads were counting on 7.5% stock returns for the next 30 ye...
by Blueskies123
Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the range of expected stock market returns ever been larger than today?
Replies: 15
Views: 1340

Re: Has the range of expected stock market returns ever been larger than today?

To me the most frightening aspect of this question is what expected returns all the pension funds are using for calculating current and future benefits. Most are in 7-8%. Can you imagine if all Bogleheads were counting on 7.5% stock returns for the next 30 years. https://www.wsj.com/articles/pension...
by Blueskies123
Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?
Replies: 99
Views: 8627

Re: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?

With your portfolio using these numbers will give you a 1.6% real return. [/quote] This is exactly the kind of calculations I was looking for. How do you get 1.6% as the real return from the projections above? [/quote] The poster said he had 40% stocks, 40% bonds, and 20% cash. 3.5% ×40% stocks= 1.4...
by Blueskies123
Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions about my perspective on bond funds
Replies: 13
Views: 894

Re: Questions about my perspective on bond funds

Long rates are stable and recently have been moving down over the last few weeks. Short term rates are definitely going up. Money market funds and short duration bond funds are at 2%.
by Blueskies123
Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I contact GMC about A/C issues?
Replies: 42
Views: 1878

Re: Should I contact GMC about A/C issues?

Something has to be horribly wrong with GMC (and other large GM SUV) AC compressors. I know 2 people with 2015 -2015 GMCs and both their compressors and soon after the condensers we out.
by Blueskies123
Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Inflation Timing Be Done?
Replies: 15
Views: 995

Re: Can Inflation Timing Be Done?

It was pretty clear inflation was going down when Reagan increased the prime rate to 20 percent. Much higher than inflation. http://www.fedprimerate.com/wall_street_journal_prime_rate_history.htm Annual Inflation from 1980 – 1989 Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1980 13.91% 14.18...
by Blueskies123
Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Inflation Timing Be Done?
Replies: 15
Views: 995

Re: Can Inflation Timing Be Done?

I believe trying to determine interest rates is just as hard as determining where the stock market is headed. Back in 2008, just about everyone was saying the government was printing money and interest rates have to go up. Alot of people, including me were wrong. I would suggest you research the hi...
by Blueskies123
Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some 'hints' about brokered CDs
Replies: 33
Views: 7042

Re: Some 'hints' about brokered CDs

But many money market funds have a healthy dose of CD's in their portfolio. They are probably buying very short term original issue CD's. I suppose it is possible they might by an older large CD from another fund where the maturity only has a few weeks or months left. If they do I imagine they avoid...
by Blueskies123
Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some 'hints' about brokered CDs
Replies: 33
Views: 7042

Re: Some 'hints' about brokered CDs

Another Tip: If you are going to buy a secondary market CD at a premium, you should double check the bank's credit worthiness. As pointed out above, FDIC does not cover the amount you have paid at a premium. Bankrate.com has a "Safe & Sound" rating system that you can plug in the name of the bank a...
by Blueskies123
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 107
Views: 8080

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

My take away is that bonds are for safety until inflation starts getting out of control. I have stayed the course for 30 years but living through the inflation of 70's I will move to cash and or short term bonds when and if inflation starts hitting 3-4% with more coming down the road. There were pos...
by Blueskies123
Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking Investments?
Replies: 6
Views: 745

Re: Tracking Investments?

I use mint to track all my spending, yes you have to give them your passwords. I do not spend money directly out of Fidelity where i keep all my investments. I get texts for all activity on my credit cards and checks so I feel fairly secure giving mint my credit card and bank passwords. I do not kee...
by Blueskies123
Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?
Replies: 99
Views: 8627

Re: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?

I am hoping for 4% but planning on 3%. If I see my return is more in the 4% range for several years I will up my spending either in travel or home improvement. My portfolio is 50/50 but as I get hit my late 60's and 70's I will take my RMD's mostly out of bonds and allow my portfolio to edge closer ...
by Blueskies123
Sat Jul 07, 2018 7:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Experience with Generac or Champion generators
Replies: 9
Views: 561

Re: Experience with Generac or Champion generators

The problem with non-inverter generators is they always run full speed and burn thru 5 gallons of gas in about 7 hours. I have had two week long power outages in the last 15 years due to Hurricanes. You can do the math for how much gasoline you need. If your outages are only a day or two get the che...
by Blueskies123
Fri Jun 29, 2018 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your one favorite Fidelity Fund??
Replies: 58
Views: 4423

Re: What is your one favorite Fidelity Fund??

Fidelity Contra Fund. It has been one of my largest holdings for 25 years. I have sold off everything else and moved into index ETFs but my capital gain in Fido kills me every time I sell some. Last time I sold some I had to pay AMT and that 2.x% medicare tax. Contra is one of the only mutual funds ...
by Blueskies123
Fri Jun 29, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Online backup service for a few TB's of data and a 2nd computer with a small amount of data
Replies: 50
Views: 2005

Re: Online backup service for a few TB's of data and a 2nd computer with a small amount of data

House burns down, local backup and computer are both in the house. The End. A decent lightning hit nearby will do the trick as well. One option to mitigate fire and lightning is what I do. Once a month I do a back up and once a quarter I perform an image. I keep the backup unplugged and on the othe...
by Blueskies123
Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella policy-how much liability coverage
Replies: 30
Views: 2206

Re: Umbrella policy-how much liability coverage

As I understand it, your umbrella should be enough to cover your net worth. I would round up some. If someone sues you and wins, they are only going to get what you have which is your net worth. The umbrella provides insurance should this occur. Umbrella coverage in excess of your net worth is wast...
by Blueskies123
Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein watchers - where do you go to see his current writing or current allocation preferences ?
Replies: 32
Views: 3872

Re: Bernstein watchers - where do you go to see his current writing or current allocation preferences ?

I forget if it was on his blog or in an article but he did say he wanted to move on to other things and stop with the investment writing. I could be wrong but I think he said he wanted to move onto other types of writing, I think he said fiction. I would not expect to see much more from him on inves...
by Blueskies123
Wed Jun 27, 2018 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Keeping up with inflation
Replies: 24
Views: 1830

Re: Keeping up with inflation

TIPS are guaranteed to keep pace with inflation plus offer a small real return in addition. Historically, stocks are the best long-term hedge against inflation. Treasury bills should not be dismissed either. If I recall, only once in the last 50 years have they lagged inflation by more than 1% for ...
by Blueskies123
Wed Jun 27, 2018 6:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home AC filters - does MPR matter ? [Microparticle Performance Rating]
Replies: 16
Views: 1488

Re: Home AC filters - does MPR matter ?

I have bad allergies so for years I bought those real expensive high MRV filters. The back pressure created by the highest MRV filters burned out my air conditioner blower fan. Now I buy middle of the road MRV filters and have a proper HEPA filter next to my bed.
by Blueskies123
Sun Jun 24, 2018 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low Bond Duration
Replies: 11
Views: 1024

Re: Low Bond Duration

Higher interest rates are not always good for bonds. As with everything it depends. I am old enough to have lived through the 70's. A gradual rise in rates due to an improving economy may be good for bonds over the long term but a more rapid rise in rates due to inflation is a disaster for bonds. Ma...
by Blueskies123
Sat Jun 23, 2018 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?
Replies: 349
Views: 31269

Re: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?

Corporate finance here, management type. Very good pay but with money comes a lot of stress. The biggest problem with corporate finance is mergers and acquisitions over a very long career. At some point you will be out on the street with a family and a big paycheck to replace. So I would vote no on ...
by Blueskies123
Sat Jun 23, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Am I wasting money on my old car?
Replies: 34
Views: 3399

Re: Am I wasting money on my old car?

And on a newer car you will have more airbags that will most likely work.
by Blueskies123
Sat Jun 23, 2018 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sibling wants to share house sale proceeds - best way to avoid gift taxes?
Replies: 20
Views: 2250

Re: Sibling wants to share house sale proceeds - best way to avoid gift taxes?

No expert here but I found this:

The annual exclusion for 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 is $14,000. For 2018, the annual exclusion is $15,000

Just spread the gift out over a number of years an keep at or less than $15,000. You may need to file a gift tax form, you will have to google it.
by Blueskies123
Sat Jun 23, 2018 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone use “baskets”at fidelity?
Replies: 10
Views: 1280

Re: Anyone use “baskets”at fidelity?

I used them a few times a long time ago, maybe 10 years ago but I could be wrong on the time frame. I think they are OK if you want to build a portfolio of 5-12 stocks over time and do not want to hassle with individual orders on a monthly basis. At some point I sold them because keeping track of a ...
by Blueskies123
Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much (green) cash at home for emergency ?
Replies: 169
Views: 14711

Re: How much (green) cash at home for emergency ?

Imagine a disaster on the scale of 9/11 on the but sized up to Fukushima. Imagine no electricity for two months and no gasoline for 3-6 months. Just because you have never seen a black swan does not mean they are not out there. I suggest you have enough cash to buy food and medicine, if you can fine...
by Blueskies123
Fri Jun 22, 2018 7:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much (green) cash at home for emergency ?
Replies: 169
Views: 14711

Re: How much (green) cash at home for emergency ?

The formula Risk = Probability x Magnitude


If I may, I once saw an even better formula. The formula Risk = Probability x Consequences
by Blueskies123
Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short-term Treasury ETF vs just buying Treasuries
Replies: 41
Views: 2975

Re: Short-term Treasury ETF vs just buying Treasuries

Hello, The iShares Short Treasury ETF (SHV) has an SEC yield of 1.84% and a duration of 0.39 yr. But apparently I can get a 3-month Treasury with an SEC yield of 1.97%. If I wanted to match the duration of the iShares ETF I could make a ladder of 9-month treasuries and that would give me an SEC yie...
by Blueskies123
Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Current Market
Replies: 22
Views: 1815

Re: The Current Market

I still recall this very clearly, the stunned look in my older co-workers expressions. 22% in one day.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)
by Blueskies123
Wed Jun 20, 2018 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: For Those Who Purchased Ally No Penalty CD's in Dec/Jan
Replies: 63
Views: 9195

Re: For Those Who Purchased Ally No Penalty CD's in Dec/Jan

OP here. I have finally decided on a strategy for my excess cash. I have begun the process to close my Ally no-penalty CD's (I have nine of them) and move the funds to Fidelity, where I plan to begin purchasing 6-month Treasuries. My intention is to make that investment in roughly six equal monthly...
by Blueskies123
Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Top Shelf Liquor Overrated?
Replies: 191
Views: 16762

Re: Top Shelf Liquor Overrated?

I thought I would give Costco scotch a try based on recommendations I read on this thread. Oh, was I disappointed. I will keep it for mixing with coke but not for sipping. For $17 it was worth a shot. While there I saw they had Costco Irish whisky but for $33 I will wait until I can sample some befo...
by Blueskies123
Thu Jun 14, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Top Shelf Liquor Overrated?
Replies: 191
Views: 16762

Re: Top Shelf Liquor Overrated?

I have tried Blue many times; as long as someone else was buying. I found it very good. $180 at Costco. I know someone that had all the colors including Platinum. I tried a little of each, the Blue blew them all away.
by Blueskies123
Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bottom hit for bond market?
Replies: 7
Views: 1694

Re: Bottom hit for bond market?

I have already moved about 70% of my bond ETFs and mutual funds to 1 and 2 year Treasuries and CDs.
by Blueskies123
Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Two Year Old Leftover Car
Replies: 15
Views: 1398

Re: Two Year Old Leftover Car

If you want a shock, compare they price they are giving to you to the going price for two year old, very low mileage cars for sale on the internet. You will suffer a large amount of depreciation the moment you drive off the lot but if you plan to keep the car for 10 years it does not make a differen...
by Blueskies123
Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Strategy for a prolonged bear market
Replies: 65
Views: 5602

Re: Strategy for a prolonged bear market

I have not read posts on a prolonged bear market in bonds. Having lived though the 70's I have seen a decade long bond bear market as interest rates went up to 17.5%. My first mortgage was at 12.5%. I did not think that was too bad since my Fidelity money market fund was yielding 15% around that tim...
by Blueskies123
Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 5341

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

If I were not touch my portfolio for hundreds of years this might be useful but I am going to start tapping it in the next few years so the next few decades is what is important to me. Also, I suspect there is some survivor-ship bias in here. If your portfolio was in German, Russian, Chinese, and Ja...
by Blueskies123
Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New issue CD. Mechanics of trading
Replies: 5
Views: 879

New issue CD. Mechanics of trading

In the last months I have started to buy individual treasuries and CDs. I have a few questions on new issue CDs. I was looking at the 2 year new issue CD from wellsfargo paying 2.8%. How do I know if there is a prepayment penalty option with the CD. I looked up the cusip number but found no informat...
by Blueskies123
Sat Jun 02, 2018 8:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Microsoft Edge versus Chrome
Replies: 27
Views: 1752

Re: Microsoft Edge versus Chrome

I use Edge or Firefox for surfing. I have all my online banking and investment favorites in Chrome. When I use Chrome I never save any login for password information and flush the cache frequently. I think this gives me a bit more security but not sure how much more
by Blueskies123
Fri Jun 01, 2018 9:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Top Shelf Liquor Overrated?
Replies: 191
Views: 16762

Re: Top Shelf Liquor Overrated?

The Wizard wrote:
Fri Jun 01, 2018 8:09 am
JPH wrote:
Fri Jun 01, 2018 7:27 am

If the placebo effect is real and adds to your enjoyment, then why not pay for it?
A most excellent observation, this...
These maybe the most anti-Boglehead comments ever written.
by Blueskies123
Thu May 31, 2018 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 15% rate of return in last 15 years can I expect the same in next 16 years
Replies: 39
Views: 4136

Re: 15% rate of return in last 15 years can I expect the same in next 16 years

Is your real estate rental homes or apartments. You should be trying to make 15% on RE but future stock market returns are going to me much less.
by Blueskies123
Tue May 29, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How To Store Blue Rhino Tanks Safely
Replies: 35
Views: 2773

Re: How To Store Blue Rhino Tanks Safely

If you live somewhere where the power can go out for a week you best have a spare tank for cooking and warming water to bath.
by Blueskies123
Mon May 28, 2018 3:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best brand of appliances for new condo
Replies: 21
Views: 2201

Re: Best brand of appliances for new condo

I usually refer to consumer reports for purchases like this. Do you have access to one from friends or the library. You might be able to see some reviews online.
by Blueskies123
Sun May 27, 2018 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US T bills - first time user
Replies: 115
Views: 9206

Re: US T bills - first time user

Kevin, the spreadsheets you are posting are very useful. Can you explain how you do them? I assume you are downloading all the bond data points from Fidelity and then sorting them. Can you give us a few sorting tips or send a link so we can download them?
by Blueskies123
Fri May 25, 2018 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rum and Summer Cocktails
Replies: 30
Views: 2080

Re: Rum and Summer Cocktails

I second Kraken and coke
by Blueskies123
Fri May 25, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When did this start?? [Restaurant tipping on total bill]
Replies: 58
Views: 4008

Re: When did this start??

Like others said most of the people on Bogleheads are either now or will become some of the most lucky and fortunate people on the planet. I had a couple of health scares this year and the last thing in the world I am worried about now is a few dollars going to hard working waitress.
by Blueskies123
Fri May 25, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US T bills - first time user
Replies: 115
Views: 9206

Re: US T bills - first time user

I have been following this thread with some interest. I have been with Fidelity for 30 years and done a lot of trading over the years but never individual bonds. This last week I purchased my first Tbills, notes and CDs because the yields are so compelling vs ETFs and mutual funds with fees and pric...
by Blueskies123
Fri May 25, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Alexa Echo sent family's audio file to a contact
Replies: 64
Views: 5885

Re: Alexa Echo sent family's audio file to a contact

The device is pretty handy, but...you couldn't invent a better surveillance state device, one that people will pay money to install. Fortunately, all our conversation is pretty humdrum. :wink: In George Orwell's novel, 1984,my favorite scene is where Winston is talking with the landlord of the love...
by Blueskies123
Fri May 25, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Alexa Echo sent family's audio file to a contact
Replies: 64
Views: 5885

Re: Alexa Echo sent family's audio file to a contact

I am not concerned. All they would hear is me and wife arguing.
by Blueskies123
Tue May 22, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US T bills - first time user
Replies: 115
Views: 9206

Re: US T bills - first time user

triceratop wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 4:05 pm
bberris wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 4:02 pm
Buy new issues if you can to avoid the spread. Some brokers charge some customers a fee, so check first. Or you can use treasury direct.
OP uses Schwab (I recognize the screengrab) which has no commissions and no markups on T-bills.
Same with Fidelity. I bought some today.
by Blueskies123
Sat May 19, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 320
Views: 42680

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

I am new to looking at individual bonds and had a question. Looking at Fidelity's bond screens I see that at the two year maturity mark CD's beat Treasuries but I also noticed Agency bonds yielding very close to CD rates. They are rated AA+, not AAA. Are these Agency bonds really any less safe or li...