Search found 1217 matches

by wshang
Tue Aug 15, 2023 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Did/Would You Choose Schwab Over Fidelity?
Replies: 167
Views: 32593

Re: Why Did/Would You Choose Schwab Over Fidelity?

Amazing that we are on the 4th page and no one has mentioned the biggest reason, at least for me.

Schwab has now inherited the crown jewel of trading from Td: Think or Swim

While BH's may not generally day-trade, or maybe you do for some portion of your portfolio, TOS has the best stocks, options and futures screening, Level 2 quotes, charting and automated order programming abilities in the industry. TOS allows historic backtesting of strategies and free realtime papertrading.
by wshang
Tue Jan 03, 2023 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 5249
Views: 899948

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

-8.8% but it includes my living expenses without substantive income (retired no pension). 50/25/5 Equities/Bonds/Cash.

The remaining 20% are options trading which were the positive portion.
by wshang
Tue Aug 30, 2022 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much debt is OK in retirement?
Replies: 125
Views: 12935

Re: How much debt is OK in retirement?

Sure, you won't be homeless... You can use your OTHER retirement money to finish up the payments. But it is possible that "investing the $500k" instead of "paying off the mortgage" could end up losing you money instead of making you money. I've been reading your reasoning, but want to poke at your argument a little with your permission. Presuming my free cash flow in retirement is not affected by servicing the mortgage, AND I predict that inflation will continue at a higher rate than my fixed rate mortgage, Then, why wouldn't it make sense for me to be a debtor in inflationary times? - Thanks! The house will be worth more with inflation, so at some point you could sell it, and pay off the mortgage with inflated dollars....
by wshang
Mon Aug 29, 2022 9:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much debt is OK in retirement?
Replies: 125
Views: 12935

Re: How much debt is OK in retirement?

HomerJ wrote: Sun Aug 28, 2022 10:57 am Sure, you won't be homeless... You can use your OTHER retirement money to finish up the payments. But it is possible that "investing the $500k" instead of "paying off the mortgage" could end up losing you money instead of making you money.
I've been reading your reasoning, but want to poke at your argument a little with your permission. Presuming my free cash flow in retirement is not affected by servicing the mortgage, AND
I predict that inflation will continue at a higher rate than my fixed rate mortgage,
Then, why wouldn't it make sense for me to be a debtor in inflationary times? - Thanks!
by wshang
Thu Aug 25, 2022 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Hidden Cost of Retail Purchases of Individual Muni Bonds
Replies: 28
Views: 3241

Re: The Hidden Cost of Retail Purchases of Individual Muni Bonds

Perhaps so, but that was not the finding of the authors of the above paper. If retail traders are buying bonds not available to institutional investors, then there is no basis of comparison. They may have a higher yield because risk is higher. This kind of debate takes place over and over again in the BH's forum. Not everyone wishes to spend the time to ferret out market inefficiencies, certainly not BH's who follow the central BH dictum. To say the rest of us are fools is an overreach. Live and let live. My bond portfolio has done quite satisfactorily. And yes, previously in my investing life, when I was poorer, less educated and had less time on my hands, I was a BH bond index investor who rebalanced annually. You could do a lot worse an...
by wshang
Thu Aug 25, 2022 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Hidden Cost of Retail Purchases of Individual Muni Bonds
Replies: 28
Views: 3241

Re: The Hidden Cost of Retail Purchases of Individual Muni Bonds

Northern Flicker wrote: Thu Aug 25, 2022 1:07 am
wshang wrote: Wed Aug 24, 2022 9:49 pm I generally ladder a muni bond portfolio with bonds maturing decades from the present. These bonds cost me on purchase but not on maturity, so one commission.
The point of the article is the claim that you also are paying a hidden cost via the yield haircut for a bond sold through the retail broker channel.
Right. $5 commission through ML. Haircut via the interest rate. Nothing surprising here. Amortizing that cost over the life of the bond, is that less than or equal to the fund ER and internal costs over the same time? Will my bonds default? Those are the main the questions.

As an aside, I like zero coupon muni's with prices over $100 for tax purposes. If they are pre-refunded, even better. YMMV
by wshang
Wed Aug 24, 2022 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Hidden Cost of Retail Purchases of Individual Muni Bonds
Replies: 28
Views: 3241

Re: The Hidden Cost of Retail Purchases of Individual Muni Bonds

I generally ladder a muni bond portfolio with bonds maturing decades from the present. These bonds cost me on purchase but not on maturity, so one commission. Nor do these bonds cost me like when others sell in a mutual fund. I control the maturity, risk profile and tax consequences. Therefore, on balance I figure my costs are less per year than a mutual fund.

There opportunities are to be had as mentioned by unbiased. When California had their bond crisis years ago, it was 'Buffett' time. Of course you should have more than $1M in bonds and know a lot about bonds, as well as work with a knowledgeable broker. I thank Larry Swedroe for his excellent guidance over the years.
by wshang
Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Borrowing from 401k to reduce RMD
Replies: 9
Views: 1743

Re: Borrowing from 401k to reduce RMD

delamer wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 10:17 am
Lionel Hutz wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 8:59 am The loan remains a line item because there’s the assumption it will be repaid, and also has not been taxed yet.
This makes sense. Seemed too good to be possible. Thanks!
by wshang
Sat Jun 19, 2021 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Borrowing from 401k to reduce RMD
Replies: 9
Views: 1743

Re: Borrowing from 401k to reduce RMD

David Jay wrote: Sat Jun 19, 2021 9:37 pm Help me understand how you think a loan taken out against your 401K reduces the size of the account (and thus the RMD)?
If the loan is taken in December and returned in January, wouldn't the end of the year amount used to calculate the RMD be decreased?
by wshang
Fri Jun 18, 2021 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Borrowing from 401k to reduce RMD
Replies: 9
Views: 1743

Borrowing from 401k to reduce RMD

Recent legislation allows borrowing from a 401k UP from $50k to $100k. It occurs to me that with interest rates so low and if we enter into a period of low returns in the stock market, borrowing from a solo 401k may be a method of decreasing the calculated RMD. Because the RMD is calculated on December 31st, a loan could effectively decrease the amount withdrawn.

Setting aside for the moment whether the tax-deferred return is worth it, what do you think about this strategy?
by wshang
Sun May 09, 2021 7:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: RMD coming.....
Replies: 153
Views: 20281

Re: RMD coming.....

Up to this point in the discussion, I see only Roth conversions being discussed. There are several other avenues which can be explored: 1) Moving to one of the states where retirement income is not taxed. I am not clear whether Roth conversions would be taxed in Florida for someone who is between the ages of 59.5 and 72 though. 2) Find a job, where you can roll your 401k or IRA into the plan and continue to work. Before you dismiss this idea, I wonder if there are online businesses which would accept employees to perform nominal work and allow them to fully participate in their 401k. In this way, you could indefinitely defer RMD's. 3) Create your own charitable organization within your family and donate your would-be RMD to that entity. I w...
by wshang
Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your contrarian/alternative play?
Replies: 102
Views: 11083

Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

khangaroo wrote: Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:17 am Now that crypto is becoming more and more mainstream
MARK MY WORDS, THE PRICE (1) YEAR FROM NOW WILL BE HIGHER THAN THAT.

Adding to my calendar to check this comment 1 year from now.
So you will comp me for any loss? :P
by wshang
Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your contrarian/alternative play?
Replies: 102
Views: 11083

Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

rj49 wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:31 pm My alternative is simply replacing bond funds with Fundrise real estate, since it pays well over 5%, . . . Even bonds are too risky, since we've seen they can lose value and even ultra-safe ibonds have the risk of low yields during extended periods of low inflation. Larry Swedroe and David Swenson warned against taking risk on the bond side.
My corporate bond portfolio has been entirely liquidated due to near zero of interest rates. For the past year, I have replaced the yield with cash backed put selling against the SPY helped by a high VIX.
by wshang
Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EE Savings Bonds in IRA or 401k account
Replies: 16
Views: 1865

Re: EE Savings Bonds in IRA or 401k account

Thanks everyone for their reply. I have to admit my ignorance of the tax fallacy too. [ivgrivchuck] :oops: As always, you guys are a helpful and knowledgeable bunch. :D
by wshang
Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EE Savings Bonds in IRA or 401k account
Replies: 16
Views: 1865

EE Savings Bonds in IRA or 401k account

BH's seem to be an incredibly knowledgeable group. Savings bonds are not subject to local or state taxes, but they are subject to Federal taxes. There are some narrow exemptions for education, but that isn't my future angle. I have inquired at TdAmeritrade and a local bank, and have not been able to figure out a way to purchase EE Savings Bonds in a tax deferred or exempt account. Ideally if I could set up a Roth at TreasuryDirect, (not possible as far as I know) that would be perfect. With a magic twenty-year doubling of these babies, that would be a great investment. Thanks in advance.
by wshang
Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Please advise doc who wants to retire early
Replies: 103
Views: 10864

Re: Please advise doc who wants to retire early

Others, actual doctors, I've known seem to have zero interest in ever retiring. My dermatologist has to be 70ish (degrees were from the 70s) and is still going (in shape and active), my internal medicine doctor has a degree from Temple in the 70s and also is in shape and going full speed and a casual friend is a family physician and told me he has no plans to retire (he is probably 60s). You are very fortunate and should hold on to those physicians! We are in the midst of a worsening physician shortage. Counting myself among the tailend of the Boomer physicians, we are generally financially well off (can pull the ripcord - thanks in part to BH's). Since beginning practice decades ago, have lost many non-monetary incentives: loss of respect...
by wshang
Wed Jan 13, 2021 10:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Please advise doc who wants to retire early
Replies: 103
Views: 10864

Re: Please advise doc who wants to retire early

Carguy85 wrote: Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:25 am You and I are both very close in age and both have spent many years and 100s of thousands on training...I’m not sure if I will make it to 40 though.
I can't exactly remember the statistic, but roughly around 50 y/o, about 50% of physicians have transitioned to a desk job, part to full-time. Maybe a non-clinical, informatics, hedge fund, drug company, organization Medical Director, VP of Medical Affairs are positions to begin thinking about.
by wshang
Sat Jan 09, 2021 4:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Please advise doc who wants to retire early
Replies: 103
Views: 10864

Re: Please advise doc who wants to retire early

Quite honestly a bit of a pickle given our present investment landscape. Personally I don't seen much upside potential relative to past years. I would suggest you spend a good deal of time studying options. It it possible to make money, steady money in all market conditions with options. BTW, speaking as a semiretired physician, it is easier to make a pile working your butt off as a private guy. But as one of my attendings told me in training, "It never gets easier, you just get used to it. Suck it up."
by wshang
Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short covered strangle on your stock allocation
Replies: 14
Views: 2378

Re: Short covered strangle on your stock allocation

There are a couple of ways to improve your chances of consistently coming on top: 1) Trade index options: There is a special tax law that treats 60% of gains are taxed at longer-term rates, while 40% are taxed at short-term rates. But in this case, it doesn’t matter how long you’ve held the position. Index options are also good because of the narrow bid/ask spreads and large liquidity pools. The data is excellent with SPY SPX options because they are tracked by futures contracts, so you can get a feel how they have been trading prior to market opening and after closing. Downside is they trade until 4:15 and can be exercised until 6PM. 2) Unlike BH's, when using this strategy, I time the market. I am looking for high VIX values to sell put o...
by wshang
Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:27 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I would hope the remaining 80% has acquired masks (to decrease risk of inhalation of high viral loads) You are not the only colleague who has been repeating the mantra "high viral load". If viral load did not matter, I and many of my colleagues and nurses would have surely been sick by now (unless we are all some of those asymptomatic people if viral load did not matter.) There is a pathophysiologic rationale for dose dependency. Droplets get trapped for the most part in the nasopharynx. The turbinates create turbulence to send about 80% to the sticky mucus. If that's true, then very few of the ~100 nanometer sized virions make it to the lungs. It does seem for many that the infection is two-tiered. Beat the infection in the nose...
by wshang
Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:57 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:43 pm I would hope the remaining 80% has acquired masks (to decrease risk of inhalation of high viral loads)
You are not the only colleague who has been repeating the mantra "high viral load". I have been searching in vain for studies other than analogies to known diseases in which this occurs, (influenza and HIV), BUT have not been able to find supporting evidence.

Admittedly it is a seductive idea which dovetails to the more established theory of ACE2 receptor upregulation correlating with disease severity. Can you share any studies other than medical or popular press speculative OpEd's?
by wshang
Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:43 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

A person has a positive antibody test. Then what: We do not know answers to many questions (at least I do not). Some reasonable guesses can be made for some questions.( Added: Answer to A can be found but need to read fine print) Question A: Is the antibody test specific to SARS CoV2 or not Option A1: Yes, it is specific to SARS CoV2 Option A2 : No, it tests antibodies against any corona virus. Question B: Are antibodies protective against any strain of SARS CoV2 ? Opt: B1: Yes . They are protective. Opt B2: No. Not protective. Question C: Are antibodies specific to one strain of SARS CoV protective for another strain of SARS CoV2 Option C1: Yes. Antibodies against one strain of Cov2 protect against all strains of SARS CoV2 Option C2: No a...
by wshang
Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:34 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

#1. It is non-parametric, i.e., does not make any assumptions about the type of curve, #2. Does not make assumptions about R0. Rather, infers R0, #3. Models hidden variables such as true number infected, #4. Updates in real-time. https://covid19-projections.com/ https://covid19-projections.com/about/ Its really really hard to predict the future. I recently read a quote from the Imperial College that if you get within 50%, that's a great model. Setting aside that the Imperial College's prediction or whether the NY Governor's dire predictions would have come to pass, (but for drastic measures and interventions), my question for BH modelers: what criteria would define a successful model? If my memory serves me correct, the NY Times repeated n...
by wshang
Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:52 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

#1. It is non-parametric, i.e., does not make any assumptions about the type of curve, #2. Does not make assumptions about R0. Rather, infers R0, #3. Models hidden variables such as true number infected, #4. Updates in real-time. https://covid19-projections.com/ https://covid19-projections.com/about/ Its really really hard to predict the future. I recently read a quote from the Imperial College that if you get within 50%, that's a great model. Setting aside that the Imperial College's prediction or whether the NY Governor's dire predictions would have come to pass, (but for drastic measures and interventions), my question for BH modelers: what criteria would define a successful model? If my memory serves me correct, the NY Times repeated n...
by wshang
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:54 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Antibody tests by a private company have started being offered in my area. My SO got a test today - will have the results in a few days. Be careful what is actually being tested. Her pulmonologist suggested she get the antibody test so she will sign up soon. I assume he wouldn't recommend the antibody test if it wasn't of some clinical value for her treatment. https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-serological-test-validation-and-education-efforts You may not have seen my previous link to the FDA bulletin on their Emergency Use Authorization: "Performance assessments for serological tests will begin soon, and we expect to start seeing results shortly thereafter. We will review NIH’s results exp...
by wshang
Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:17 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

If the results of the test should not change our response, therefor why bother testing? If the test is positive then you isolated a cluster and curtailed a wider spread. That's especially useful if the person was asymptomatic when contact tracing to keep clusters isolated. Let me ask you now a question about the value of contact tracing. Fools errand? I don't think so Let me try coming from another direction . . . . Can we agree that at a certain prevalence of disease, contact tracing will be useless? Certainly 90%, certainly 80% and even 50%. So if you can go with that, then we are in agreement in principal. You can say the prevalence of the stage of the disease is still early enough to make Wack-a-mole a viable strategy. If that is the c...
by wshang
Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:30 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

nigel_ht wrote: Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:16 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:01 am If the results of the test should not change our response, therefor why bother testing?
If the test is positive then you isolated a cluster and curtailed a wider spread. That's especially useful if the person was asymptomatic when contact tracing to keep clusters isolated.
Let me ask you now a question about the value of contact tracing. Let's suppose your asymptomatic shedder has given it to yet another young person or group of people who don't show symptoms and continue the chain of viral shedding. How useful is testing for contact tracing in that context? Fool's errand?
by wshang
Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:54 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

So here in the US, we’re 11 days past the peak. The 7 day average of the number of new cases per day has dropped by 2% since the peak. 2%. By this point, China’s new cases had dropped by 89%, South Korea’s by 81%, Spain and Germany, 34 and 35%, and Italy, 22%. Is there something exceptional about America, or is it just that we aren’t following what public health and infectious disease experts recommend, while the other countries are (continued social distancing, testing, tracing, quarantining)? Or is it that our level of testing continues to be so bad that our peak was artificially low, because of lack of tests? Something else? If we continue like this, we’re never getting out of house arrest. quantAndHold Oh! I misunderstood your question...
by wshang
Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:39 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Is it possible there's a connection? ACE2 connects all the dots. The rate of obesity among my covid patients is....very high. Any knowledge/ educated guess/ general feel for the BMI when you start seeing these patients? In other words, how obese? Research showed obesity was associated with a 4.3-fold increase in hospitalization for those with a BMI between 30 and 40, and a 6.2-fold increase for those with a BMI over 40. Thanks for the link. Nothing sharpens the mind than reading a non-peer reviewed article that hasn't been published anywhere. Right off, there are some interesting little quirks in the data. BMI buckets begin at 30 instead of 25. The race buckets are normalized against white instead of the mean. African-Americans actually ha...
by wshang
Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:16 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

We cannot move forward without more testing I know you don’t agree with me, but once you can rationalize exactly what information a nasopharyngeal swab provides and more importantly what it does not provide, I’m sure you too would understand why mass testing is not required to move forward. Yes, more testing will be beneficial especially if we can pair it with antibody screening if immunity is actually possible. For a lay person this sounds very straightforward. The FDA has granted unprecedented leeway in testing (quoted from their website): https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-serological-test-validation-and-education-efforts the FDA issued a policy explaining that FDA does not intend to object w...
by wshang
Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:03 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I believe it is less to do with socioeconomic status and more to do with pre-existing conditions. In the US some races have a higher prevalence to having high blood pressure and diabetes as well as being overweight. The older Chineses data also shows worse outcomes for people with pre-existing conditions. Is it possible there's a connection? ACE2 connects all the dots. (metabolic syndrome, prediabetes, obesity, DM, hypertension, COPD, vaping, air pollution, inactivity, peripheral and cardiovascular disease) All these people have activated renin-angiotensin systems leading to ARDS, Covid-19 heart, renal and microthrombi related damage. 75% of African Americans have HTN by age 55. Wuhan has a 2.5PM of 80, (WHO lists 35 has the highest level ...
by wshang
Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:10 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

But I read it three times and while I understand it, I think its backwards. Simple question why would a vaccine to the virus affect ACE2? An antibody targeting the spike protein of Sars Cov2 would not necessarily interact with ACE2. We're targeting the proteins on the virus, not protein the virus docks to. I don't understand wshang's comment, either. Antibodies to the spike would not be complementary to the binding region of ACE2, so it is unlikely such a scenario would unfold. To be clear, I am not a strong advocate of this being a likely side effect. If I were that prescient then I'd be running a hedge fund. But there are lots of funky things we don't understand about how the immune system responds. For example, have you noticed the incr...
by wshang
Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:09 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I was doing some reading on Wikipedia about other coronavirus-related diseases like SARS and MERS. Neither of these diseases has an approved vaccine We've never made a successful vaccine for a coronavirus before. This is why it's so difficult The problem with vaccine are multifold: A "targeted" vaccine would present a protein that looked like the spike protein on SARS-coV2, but not necessarily interact with ACE2. Even if it did, the vaccine would circulate in very low amounts and would not replicate like virus. Further, the vaccine itself is not durable. Hopefully the antibody response it generates will be, but not vaccine itself. Because of a phenomenon called viral induced molecular mimicry. I'm not saying that is likely, but a...
by wshang
Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:40 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I was doing some reading on Wikipedia about other coronavirus-related diseases like SARS and MERS. Neither of these diseases has an approved vaccine We've never made a successful vaccine for a coronavirus before. This is why it's so difficult https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-17/coronavirus-vaccine-ian-frazer/12146616 Edit: I think I mentioned earlier that there is a vaccine for a cat disease caused by a feline coronavirus. Unfortunately it doesn't work well and actually is suspected of making some animals sicker. I am assuming this is the type of problem the doctor is talking about in the article posted above. ""One of the problems with corona vaccines in the past has been that when the immune response does cross over t...
by wshang
Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:16 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Given that the current consensus among competent experts disagrees with "Flattening the curve, contact tracing in the face of asymptomatic transmission is a fool's errand" what is the basis of your assertion other than an appeal to your authority? I wouldn't have said this in February, if we had a PCR test and the ability to test all people entering the country. It would have been reasonable to have every person self-quarantine prior to entry into American society, even in the absence of testing had we had the foresight. The purpose of "Flattening the curve," was to decrease the rate of infection, thereby decreasing the intensity of hospital utilization. Related to that was the hope of containment. If we could quarantin...
by wshang
Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:59 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

smitcat wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:52 pm We have had 3 persons we know that have died from Covid 19 that were younger than 65 bit in our case all 3 had some fairly significant pre-existing conditions. We have no idea what the effect is on younger persons with no pre-existing conditions.
Vaping is underrecognized. Illicit drug use like cocaine? If you learn more, we would like to know.
by wshang
Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:44 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

I trust the people I know who have experience and expertise. Have you every asked another pathologist for a second opinion? How do you pick one? Are there authorities in your field whose experience you trust? Maybe you trained with them? Maybe you have read their work before and realize that they have deeper knowledge than you in a particular field? I couldn't PM you because of your settings, so please excuse this if this appears unseemly: -I was in China in January -I was in cash in my retirement accounts prior to mid February -Told my elderly mother to buy masks, prepare for quarantine, go to cash in her account at the same time -told my med school friends to buy N95 masks in late February -Bought puts on SPY and JETS before they crashed...
by wshang
Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:31 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

What has been clear to researchers and increasingly voiced publically is that a safe vaccine is not right around the corner. Flattening the curve, contact tracing in the face of asymptomatic transmission is a fool's errand. Containment strategies must be replaced by mitigation, lest we destroy the economy with false, unachievable hopes. Flattening the curve is definitely not a fool's errand. If you don't, you'll completely overwhelm the healthcare system. You get a situation like in Italy. If you want to go for herd immunity, flattening the curve is essential. You need a slow, controlled spread that keeps the people who need hospital care within the capacity of the healthcare system. Otherwise you'll end up with a LOT of people who will di...
by wshang
Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:24 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

What has been clear to researchers and increasingly voiced publically is that a safe vaccine is not right around the corner. Flattening the curve, contact tracing in the face of asymptomatic transmission is a fool's errand. Containment strategies must be replaced by mitigation, lest we destroy the economy with false, unachievable hopes. No (competent) "researcher"or epidemiologist I know agrees with your statement regarding "flattening the curve, contact tracing etc." We need not appeal to authority. Please explain where the logic is wrong. (As a pathologist, I always welcome a surgeon's questions!) When I say "No (competant) "researcher" or epidemiologist," I mean the following. I have spoken with o...
by wshang
Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:15 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

wshang wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:13 pm
folkher0 wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:09 pm What has been clear to researchers and increasingly voiced publically is that a safe vaccine is not right around the corner. Flattening the curve, contact tracing in the face of asymptomatic transmission is a fool's errand. Containment strategies must be replaced by mitigation, lest we destroy the economy with false, unachievable hopes.
No (competent) "researcher"or epidemiologist I know agrees with your statement regarding "flattening the curve, contact tracing etc."
We need not appeal to authority. Please explain where the logic is wrong. (As a pathologist, I always welcome a surgeon's questions!)
by wshang
Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

wshang wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:13 pm
folkher0 wrote: Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:09 pm What has been clear to researchers and increasingly voiced publically is that a safe vaccine is not right around the corner. Flattening the curve, contact tracing in the face of asymptomatic transmission is a fool's errand. Containment strategies must be replaced by mitigation, lest we destroy the economy with false, unachievable hopes.
No (competent) "researcher"or epidemiologist I know agrees with your statement regarding "flattening the curve, contact tracing etc."
We need not appeal to authority. Please explain where the logic is wrong. (As a pathologist, I always welcome a surgeon's questions!)
by wshang
Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:36 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

One month ago from today there were only 200 deaths in the U.S. Now it is over 40,000 in just one month. There has never been an epidemic in the U.S. with 40,000 deaths in one month since 1918. But 54,000 die every month from heart disease, 50,000 from cancer, 14,000 from accidents, 13,000 from lower respiratory diseases, Yes. Many people die every day. In fact, everybody dies someday. I too will die someday. So will you. I don't want to die in the next two weeks of COVID. Do you? The problem with this conversation is one is talking about rate and the other is talking about cumulative data. With the exception of (1) some preliminary off-label drug use discoveries which might significantly impact the disease course, and (2) presuming we can...
by wshang
Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:24 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Edit: Looks like 3.5 million now. And 200k per day, which is still increasing as the Abbott test becomes more widespread. I don't know where the goalposts were before, but tests/capita would be the most relevant measure. But you have publications like Vox upthread quoting "experts" that say we need tens of millions tests per day. That's not realistic, And look at it the other way: if people gamble and go back to work and cases go right back up, where will we be? I think you guys might want to look at things the other way. Say I clean houses for a living. Or deliver pizzas. Or my job involves face-to-face encounters. Don't you think I would have some incentive knowing or being able to show evidence of prior Covid-19 infection? Tha...
by wshang
Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:48 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

folkher0 wrote: Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:35 pm
Tony-S wrote: Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:10 pm Remdesivir is quite remarkable in its ability to limit COVID-19 pathology. See Figure 6 of this study just out today.
There is a paper there if you click the right spot. More than an abstract. But this is preprint. Unpublished. Hasn’t been peer reviewed.
What's truly amazing is this sentence from the paper:
"virus was still detected in BAL from four out of six control animals (Fig. 2B). "

Two of six control monkey's lungs were highly resistant to Covid-19 infection. Those two untreated monkeys are worth learning more about!

To quote from the "Andromeda Strain": "What do a crying baby and an old man addicted to sterno have in common?"
by wshang
Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:33 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

brianH wrote: Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:57 am
rkhusky wrote: Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:51 am Even in areas that have a lot of cases, why are people that work alone, or outdoors beyond 6 foot proximity with others, prevented from working? Makes no sense. I imagine it is the lack of common sense and flexibility that riles some people.
There's also a distinct lack of logic and consistency in many of the state's orders.
Tolerance for extreme lockdowns in areas that aren't badly affected is growing very thin.
If you want a visual argument why people in Upstate New York might feel there is a lack of common sense and flexibility in the Govenor's decision for a State-wide continued shutdown, (versus a county-by-county) check out this map:
Image
by wshang
Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:07 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

This kowtowing to the single minded goals of the epidemiologists who finally get to play their table top games for real and their to h*** with everyone else attitude about all the collateral damage while they destroy people's lively hoods and cause damage which will reverberate through through the economy and society for years if not decades has got to end. It’s about time those single minded goals of Fire Marshalls and LEOs are put in perspective. I’m an American, with freedom of speech, and if I want to tell FIRE in a crowded theater, it’s my right. It won’t kill anyone; the stampede is what kills, and I’m not stampeding. Anyway, the good news is you can yell what you like; the theater is empty. I don't think we should be so quick to dis...
by wshang
Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:59 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

nigel_ht wrote: Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:15 am There an East Asian saying that nails that stick up get hammered down...

So there is a deep cultural difference between a society that avoids being the nail that sticks up and a society where being that nail is considered a good thing.
Just so the BH audience gets a clearer flavor of what the Chinese sentiment might be: 杀鸡儆猴 means that you take a chicken, make a public display of slaughtering it, and that should silence any chattering monkeys.
by wshang
Tue Apr 14, 2020 8:37 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

For the immediate foreseeable future, we won't be needing anywhere near the 140,000 beds the Governor was calling for in NYC.

In typical BH tradition, anyone want to claim credit for calling the top?

Image
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... atistics_2
by wshang
Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:35 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 106968

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Note that the coronavirus is on the order of 100 nm in size, which is somewhat smaller than the 300 nm particles that are filtered by P95 or P100 masks. There is a real problem from trying to reason from basic physics to biology. Let me share one such aspect which perhaps may not be immediately obvious. The very first immune contact for Covid-19 is not the lung (small particle) but larger particles. We have evidence for this clinically as patients have been describing relatively mild and prolonged symptoms of loss of smell, nasal congestion and perhaps dry cough. Its only until they say, "it went into my chest," before they get into trouble. Over the past week, it has been increasingly obvious that the virus infects and replicate...