Search found 269 matches

by paper200
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 COVID Crash Lessons
Replies: 157
Views: 12761

Re: 2020 COVID Crash Lessons

I have learned that my tolerance for stock fund declines is much higher than for bond fund declines. Same for me. I agonized about losing a couple thousand in Muni holdings way more than losing over 100k in stocks. Makes no logical sense to me! Same here. Partially exchanged for short term treasury...
by paper200
Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2955
Views: 526449

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

About -13.5%. Thinking when to re-balance back to 50:50. I am in between accumulation and de-accumulation stage - was wondering this past year the consequence of sequence of returns. Did advise someone older than me by a few years (63) to move from a 80:20 or 90:10 portfolio to some what conservativ...
by paper200
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 217
Views: 15380

Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

I need to change fund name from "Losers are Winners" to "Losers Stay Losers" :D
This dart throwing strategy did not work in 20/20 :beer :greedy
by paper200
Wed Jan 29, 2020 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 217
Views: 15380

Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

I should change my fund name from “losers are winners” :oops: to “loser” :D
Tanelorn and I had had the opposite bets and, oh boy, in a day one ticker went bellyup :sharebeer
by paper200
Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At some point you'll probably lose at least 30% (real) from your diversified portfolio: Meb Faber
Replies: 96
Views: 8355

Re: At some point you'll probably lose at least 30% (real) from your diversified portfolio: Meb Faber

The problem is trying to construct a portfolio minimizing loss and maximizing gain is like oil and water. Closer to retirement, voluntary or in-voluntary, more than ever. Spouse got downsized recently. Even with a 50:50 portfolio, and having been through 2001-2003 and 2007-2009 markets, I am mentall...
by paper200
Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?
Replies: 406
Views: 13997

Re: Gold - How Do Investors Model Price?

Pu239 wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:14 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 4:48 pm


Gold does not compound.
Au2Cl6, Au2(SO4)2, etc. :happy
:D :beer
by paper200
Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 217
Views: 15380

Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Losers are Winners

Long
MDR
KLXE
ACOR
by paper200
Mon Mar 25, 2019 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: M.I.T.'s Andrew Lo says Buy and Hold dosen't work
Replies: 116
Views: 20363

Re: M.I.T.'s Andrew Lo says Buy and Hold dosen't work

MIT prof + CIO title is lot of weight to pull in Other peoples excess capital. Interesting thesis / thought experiment for Prof. Lo, an expert in artificial intelligence, may be to see if Google’s Alpha Zero can come up with solution better than the commonsense approach. IMHO we Bogleheads realize c...
by paper200
Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 856
Views: 60200

Re: John Bogle is dead at 89

A true hero to ordinary folks who want financial peace after years of hard work by being able invest a portion of their labor without fear of being robbed. A person in the investment world equal to MLK or MKG or GW in stature. Peace!
by paper200
Mon Dec 31, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are some critiques of passive investing/index funds?
Replies: 75
Views: 6562

Re: What are some critiques of passive investing/index funds?

Firstly, index investing has been sealing leaks in the money pipeline from average investors to the middlemen - that is why the critique. Secondly, even when "fund/hedge fund managers" and individual investors were owning company stocks as a larger percent share holders of companies (circa 1980's/90...
by paper200
Sat Mar 24, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m looking for a word...
Replies: 114
Views: 12292

Re: I’m looking for a word...

Welcome back Rick!

Interference uncertainty. Interference from optical physics, can be constructive or destructive and uncertainty from QM
by paper200
Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review- Thirty-Something Couple
Replies: 3
Views: 824

Re: Portfolio Review- Thirty-Something Couple

Good planning. Best Wishes for a long term success. I wish I planned like you at your age. Suggestions would be to invest: a) your spouses work IRA in DFA Microcap and Vanguard Small Cap Value DCAed - over the years you will have some factor built in b) Your work deferred comp into 60:40 fund. c) Yo...
by paper200
Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 176
Views: 22901

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Ooops my bad. I meant Endo international plc. Ticker is endp not endo.

Thanks
by paper200
Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 176
Views: 22901

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Tanelorn,

The ENDO stock price seems to be incorrect in my portfolio can you please correct it.
Thnks
by paper200
Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 176
Views: 22901

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Bit-Illusion Gas Fund.

Motto: Bits-in-gas-out

Long: ENDO; FLXN
Short: KERX; TSLA
by paper200
Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)
Replies: 201
Views: 23604

Re: Buying Real Silver and Gold (Not Bitcoin)

Try CNI (golddealer.com). 90% Ag pre-1964 coins are +.30 over spot for buys. Free shipping. Minimum face value for purchase is $250 equivalent to ~178 oz of silver.
by paper200
Tue Aug 22, 2017 7:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My girlfriend and her 401K, need to give her advice
Replies: 61
Views: 6812

Re: My girlfriend and her 401K, need to give her advice

[/i] Michael Alden wrote: there are a lot of people who can live off less than what she'll have OP you are correct. Most folks make do with what they have. Unfortunately, a significant number of members in the forum over analyze their portfolio inputs and potential outputs. It good to understand and...
by paper200
Sat Jul 15, 2017 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Personal Finance Milestone: 20 Times Annual Expense
Replies: 95
Views: 12007

Re: Personal Finance Milestone: 20 Times Annual Expense

Congrats klang! Your words of wisdom in the board is always helpful.
by paper200
Sun Jul 09, 2017 8:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: please help me to fix my portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 1166

Re: please help me to fix my portfolio

You are too young to have bond funds in 401k. So, a suggestion is to have 50:30:20 large us: international: s&p600 small cap in 401 k. For your taxable please put all in vanguard 2020 until you have built up cash reserves for emergencies. Hope this helps.
by paper200
Fri May 19, 2017 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Yahoo Finance no longer works - Alternatives to download securities quotes]
Replies: 289
Views: 63391

Re: Excel Macro using Yahoo Finance- not working

The following will download stock price: https://download.finance.yahoo.com/d/quotes.csv?s=msft,goog,aapl &f=sl1 General code for macro: Https://download.finance.yahoo.com/d/quotes.csv?s=" & Symbols & "&f=sl1 A month back i did not have the "download" nor "https" and it had stopped working. I downlo...
by paper200
Sun Mar 26, 2017 6:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you have enough? How I realized yeah I do.
Replies: 75
Views: 15165

Re: Do you have enough? How I realized yeah I do.

by TheTimeLord » Sat Mar 25, 2017 10:41 am This question has haunted me for about 4 years. I would review my balances, max out our 401Ks, contribute to taxable accounts, build a hefty emergency fund, we hit our number and yet it still never seemed like enough. Instead I would just set a new goal an...
by paper200
Sat Mar 04, 2017 6:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Possibly Financially Independent and Feeling Miserable
Replies: 153
Views: 21816

Re: Possibly Financially Independent and Feeling Miserable

I am close to 20 years ahead of you and at your age was only dreaming of the numbers you have currently. Even though we (DW & I) made up for our follies and we could retire now with one kid out of college (private paid fully no breaks) and another one due in 2018 we are not as anxious. Go to a LCOL ...
by paper200
Sat Mar 04, 2017 6:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review: Newbie w/ $2.8M
Replies: 58
Views: 7869

Re: Portfolio Review: Newbie w/ $2.8M

Hi Waterdog, Sorry to hear about your Mum. It is nice hear someone humble about getting a windfall. Hope I can use your wisdom for my kids. I am hoping to provide them with a reasonable support in their adult life. The portfolio you have suggested for yourself: Revised Allocation: 50% Total Stock Ma...
by paper200
Thu Feb 09, 2017 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A short study of the recent Japanese crisis
Replies: 70
Views: 9197

Re: A short study of the recent Japanese crisis

siamond - very nice write up. Thank you. Should be linked to Wiki. The followup blog quote is very apt. siamond says: Maximizing the diversification of one’s asset allocation, and being flexible with portfolio withdrawals, seem to be strong requirements in order to be adaptive to an unpredictable fu...
by paper200
Sun Jan 01, 2017 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2955
Views: 526449

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

For a 48:52 portfolio, the return was 6.2% with 18% of the portfolio in Munis
by paper200
Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 247
Views: 45214

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Billionaire Yacht Fund Ticker MYG
My Yacht Guaranteed

Long: SUPN, IPXL, BREW

Short: SHLD, WINS, ARIA
by paper200
Fri Dec 23, 2016 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement
Replies: 166
Views: 17677

Re: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement

Monthly Rolling returns since 1926 (all nominal, not dividend adjusted) [*][*][*][*][*][/color]Monthly Yearly 5 year 10 year 30 year Average [*][*][/color]0.6 [*][*][/color]7.9 [*][*][/color]5.8 [*] [/color] 6.1 [*] [/color] 7.1 SD [*] [*] [*] [/color] 4.5 [*] [*] [/color]20.1 [*] [/color] 8.4 [*] [...
by paper200
Wed Dec 21, 2016 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement
Replies: 166
Views: 17677

Re: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement

The driving analogy was expected but it is a false equivalence imo. Actually the probability of dying is 1 once you are born the question is when and how and you have included only a single factor, i.e driving. There are others and if we include all then asymtotically the probability will tend to be...
by paper200
Wed Dec 21, 2016 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement
Replies: 166
Views: 17677

Re: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement

I believe the argument for not being 100% in stocks post retirement has been discussed in this forum using Nikkei Index since 6/1/89, the retirement date, as an example. By 1993 one would roughly have 50 cents to a dollar remaining - withdrawals + dividends. And by 2003, about 30 cents to a dollar r...
by paper200
Wed Nov 23, 2016 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Renaissance Technologies - Inside a Moneymaking Machine Like No Other
Replies: 54
Views: 14628

Re: Renaissance Technologies - Inside a Moneymaking Machine Like No Other

The fund growth for $10K invested in 1988 Jan 1st would have reached $148Million @39.3% CAGR in 2016. The poor customer compounded at 18.3% to $1.3Million. Investing the 5% fees and 20%/44% gain every year (DCA) from the $10K invested for the customer the fund manager grew the zero value to $147mill...
by paper200
Wed Sep 21, 2016 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morgan Stanley explains why the S&P500 wins
Replies: 13
Views: 2943

Re: Morgan Stanley explains why the S&P500 wins

Because the new companies that are added to the index typically have much higher margins than both the companies removed and the surviving constituents ...with faster prior revenue and earnings growth, and higher margins, the stocks added to the index typically have performed much better over the f...
by paper200
Wed Sep 21, 2016 9:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: major remodel: regrets or things you'd do again
Replies: 68
Views: 11312

Re: major remodel: regrets or things you'd do again

Nice job mss. Looks very good.
by paper200
Sun Sep 18, 2016 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Refrigerator issues - Temperature & Other
Replies: 22
Views: 2511

Re: Refrigerator issues - Temperature & Other

We have a Sears Refrigerator for the last 15 years. Roughly 6 years into its life we saw a similar problem. Since it is frost free excess humidity is removed as condensed water via a drain near/below the freezer coils. The tube that removes the water if it is iced will create the problems you see. E...
by paper200
Sun Sep 18, 2016 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: major remodel: regrets or things you'd do again
Replies: 68
Views: 11312

Re: major remodel: regrets or things you'd do again

:oops: Kitchen remodel suggestions. Should have read this prior to my previous post. But nevertheless suggestions welcome
by paper200
Sun Sep 18, 2016 9:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: major remodel: regrets or things you'd do again
Replies: 68
Views: 11312

Re: major remodel: regrets or things you'd do again

We are planning a small Kitchen (20Ft length base + 8ft wall cabinets) re-modelling without changing the flooring in <6 weeks installation process. We want new cabinets (all wood), counter top (quartz), lights (LED), backsplash, appliances (30" gas stove, Miele dishwasher, <33" inch wide fridge). No...
by paper200
Thu Sep 15, 2016 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strategy to buy expensive house
Replies: 67
Views: 9307

Re: Strategy to buy expensive house

800K mortgage @4% interest results in a $3800 monthly payment. High RE Tax area (NY/NJ) >24,000/year for 1M house. Federal/State Taxes on a 200K income 35-40K/year. Left with only 90-95K for expense and savings. Lucky appreciation of RE (4 to 6%/year) = buy the 1M house if you cannot save >50K per y...
by paper200
Mon Sep 05, 2016 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ - Jack Bogle: The Undisputed Champion of the Long Run
Replies: 19
Views: 4683

Re: WSJ - Jack Bogle: The Undisputed Champion of the Long Run

The quote from the article I love it:

Mr. Bogle is no idolater of the management art, not even his own. “I think a lot about leadership and I’ve come to the conclusion, by and large, it’s overrated, and that includes you know who.”
by paper200
Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: $50M+ - Need a sounding board/advice
Replies: 205
Views: 31198

Re: $50M+ - Need a sounding board/advice

That the OP came to this board for suggestions itself answer his questions - cautious and level headed. It is very unlikely OP is going to go the way Mike Tyson. Follow Larry's 3 fund advise modified for Taxes and sip martini's :beer to decide on the charities/making use of the hard earned, but a wi...
by paper200
Sun Aug 28, 2016 6:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Talk me out of 4500 purchase [Camera]
Replies: 133
Views: 12594

Re: Talk me out of 4500 purchase [Camera]

Just a toy for fun. The T1i does a pretty good job with inexpensive f4/f5.6 lenses. In most instances photo quality directly correlate to the photographer not the instrument. For portraits and wide angle shots the cell phone camera is pretty decent when viewed through a 22" diagonal or smaller monit...
by paper200
Sun Aug 28, 2016 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Talk me out of 4500 purchase [Camera]
Replies: 133
Views: 12594

Re: Talk me out of 4500 purchase [Camera]

Though a year old - Interesting thread. So, what was the outcome - kept the 6D? I have a T1i for a long time with primes (35, 50, 400) and zoom (70-200) -does a good job for a hobby. 6D MKII is what I am waiting for so that 6D MKI will be on further sale - FF, good sensor, light. Just like OP the 5D...
by paper200
Sat Aug 20, 2016 2:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Withdrawal method proposal -- Part 1: guiding principles and intent
Replies: 24
Views: 3528

Re: Withdrawal method proposal -- Part 1: guiding principles and intent

Curious - do you have data for the market (Stocks/Bonds) returns in Brazil during the inflationary period? To account for an average portfolio (0.5-2M) minus RE to survive during the time period 1981-89 seems to be difficult unless like in Japan (1980's to date) a portion is invested (diversified) o...
by paper200
Sat Jul 23, 2016 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis
Replies: 119
Views: 15943

Re: Reliving the Nightmare of the Crisis

I was in the audience for the long movie epic 2000-2010, it was was long, chilling, exhilarating, free fall, white knuckle, strapped to seat with unsure ending and no exit lights working. Bulk of my accumulation was during this period and made me a very conservative investor. The light at the end of...
by paper200
Thu Jul 14, 2016 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the deal with Japan?
Replies: 62
Views: 9881

Re: What's the deal with Japan?

A previous post suggested that in terms of Total Returns the Japanese stock market over 27 years maybe better than the index value suggests - very interested to see data, any links or reference?
by paper200
Mon Jul 04, 2016 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Trying to help mother prepare for retirement
Replies: 15
Views: 4224

Re: Trying to help mother prepare for retirement

It seems like you already have a pretty good handle. A suggestion would be to invest the IRA's/401K's in a Vanguard 2020/2025 fund since in 1.5 years RMD's will kick in. If the RMD plus SS can take care of the expenses for 10-20 years then the remaining cash can simply be put in a Vanguard Balanced ...
by paper200
Tue Jun 14, 2016 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inevesting Mistakes or Regrets
Replies: 49
Views: 7927

Re: Inevesting Mistakes or Regrets

Very conservative approach and too much pessimism from 2003 through 2011 coupled with buy/high sell low. Stopped reading sky is falling articles.
Saving grace is high savings rate and prudent spending habits. Organizing a plan for the kids so that history does not rhyme.
by paper200
Sun Mar 13, 2016 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Boglehead investing an FFT vs Time strategy ?
Replies: 16
Views: 1573

Re: Is Boglehead investing an FFT vs Time strategy ?

An interesting thought. But conceptually, as a question, if one did a transform the time domain 500 index values would one not get the individual stock prices or their weight variations/fluctuations, i.e. frequency domain are the stocks comprising the 500 index?
by paper200
Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 has basically gone nowhere for 15 years
Replies: 59
Views: 8797

Re: S&P500 has basically gone nowhere for 15 years

Looks like Dr. Reich did not realize the the chart was excluding dividends reinvested. Its unfortunate that he did not look into this deeper and added more confusion than necessary. Hopefully, someone would have pointed out the facts to him. Further, a balanced portfolio would have done better. In m...