Search found 12127 matches

by ruralavalon
Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 75
Views: 6013

Re: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

My crystal ball said 73.54% chance of correction. 82% of statistics are made up on the spot; only 17% of people know that. :beer But the more decimal places that are used, the more accurate and authoritative it seems to the typical reader. (Not BH readers, of course. Well, not 97.325% of them.) Any...
by ruralavalon
Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Planning and portfolio
Replies: 3
Views: 134

Re: Help with Planning and portfolio

Welcome to the forum :) . Please add any new information to your original post using the edit button it helps a lot if all of your information is in one place. Please see the post "asking portfolio questions" for format. Background : Together me and my spouse earn about 270k per year but we started ...
by ruralavalon
Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Help for Retiree
Replies: 8
Views: 543

Re: Portfolio Help for Retiree

Sorry if I was vague. I will spend down most of my savings in my lifetime. When I said "preserve my principal" I meant that I don't want to lose what I have. I want to move from equities to something that could better withstand a bear market. While I was working, I had a large tolerance for variati...
by ruralavalon
Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is This Allocation Crazy?
Replies: 9
Views: 440

Re: Is This Allocation Crazy?

Hello. I'm 68, retired and have 2 retirement portfolios, an IRA and brokerage. My fee only planner has the portfolios allocated as follows: Brokerage: 100% ETF's (Vanguard) IRA 67% Equities (ETFs), 26% Bonds, 7% Mutual Fund. Both portfolios are roughly equal in total value. I'm concerned about the ...
by ruralavalon
Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Getting unstuck from current allocation?
Replies: 6
Views: 393

Re: Getting unstuck from current allocation?

Welcome to the forum :) . I have done a decent job of saving money in my life, but not a great job of getting invested. I currently have saved a good amount of cash, but can't bring myself into deploying know given currently high equity valuations etc. At the same time, I know my current set up is l...
by ruralavalon
Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Jack Bogle Mastered The Paradox To Build His 'Folly' Into Vanguard
Replies: 2
Views: 336

Re: How Jack Bogle Mastered The Paradox To Build His 'Folly' Into Vanguard

Thank you for the link, that's a nice article.
Forbes wrote:The paradox of the markets is that the short-term past is an inverse guide to the future: what goes up must come down, eventually, like a yo-yo in the hand of a woman walking up a hill.
by ruralavalon
Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 75
Views: 6013

Re: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

In a video released today Joe Davis of Vanguard says the chance of a correction this year (at least a 10% decline) is 70% "the highest in 15 years" he's been at Vanguard. Sometimes it seems they do all but say, "rebalance NOW to your chosen stock allocation!". Joe goes on to explain why trying to t...
by ruralavalon
Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review & 401k Fund Options
Replies: 7
Views: 355

Re: Portfolio Review & 401k Fund Options

10%, Prudential Total Return Bond Q (PTRQX) ER 0.43%. Whenever I am researching this bond fund, it is often referred to as "High risk." I thought the point of holding bonds was to balance your high risk equities with low risk bonds? You are correct. Reducing portfolio volatility (risk) is the prima...
by ruralavalon
Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to investing, am I on the right track?
Replies: 20
Views: 1409

Re: New to investing, am I on the right track?

I really appreciate everyone's input thus far. Other than maybe being to ambitious with a 55 goal, for which the plan b would be to delay retirement a few years, are we on the right track to getting a long term portfolio up and running. Are there any major flaws that you guys can see that would be ...
by ruralavalon
Wed Jan 17, 2018 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3250
Views: 943438

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Bringing Up Baby, with Cary Grant and Katherine Hepburn.

A classic comedy, the baby is a leopard.
by ruralavalon
Wed Jan 17, 2018 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newbie - Company 401k Fund selection
Replies: 8
Views: 449

Re: Newbie - Company 401k Fund selection

Thank again for all the help guys. Here's what I'm thinking in light of the advice: The 67k in Raymond James I will consider locked up in total US stocks for now - 72% US Stock Market The Fidelity Account I will move entirely into VANG TOT BD MKT - 21.7% US Bonds The Roth IRA - I will move to VANG ...
by ruralavalon
Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to investing, am I on the right track?
Replies: 20
Views: 1409

Re: New to investing, am I on the right track?

Welcome to the forum :) . Some additional information is necessary. How much is the student loan debt? What are the 3-4 bond funds in his 401k with the lowest expense ratios? What are the 3-4 large cap or total market domestic stock funds in her 401k with the lowest expense ratios? (It's important t...
by ruralavalon
Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Illinois - [State] Retirement [Plan Options]
Replies: 3
Views: 276

Re: Illinois - [State] Retirement [Plan Options]

My wife has recently become an employee for the State of Illinois, her retirement options are various and I was wondering what you guys thought might be the best option. There are Vanguard Target Retirement Trusts 2050 or 2055, there are also Vanguard Treasure Money Market Fund, Vanguard Total Bond...
by ruralavalon
Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation Calculator
Replies: 5
Views: 461

Re: Asset Allocation Calculator

Youngpled - Do you recall where on the Vanguard site that’s located? I had heard of that feature but could never find it on the website. Thank you When I had outside accounts, that feature was located on the "balances and holdings" page. I just checked, it's still there. Also you could use Mornings...
by ruralavalon
Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review & 401k Fund Options
Replies: 7
Views: 355

Re: Portfolio Review & 401k Fund Options

Welcome to the forum :) . 1) in his 401k at Vanguard, the simplest solutions are: 90%, Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares (VFIAX) ER 0.04%; and 10%, Prudential Total Return Bond Q (PTRQX) ER 0.43%. OR 100%, American Funds Capital Income Builder R6 (RIRGX) ER 0.30% 2) Yes, it is easy. Please see ...
by ruralavalon
Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Company 401k - is this optimal?
Replies: 8
Views: 566

Re: Company 401k - is this optimal?

What are the relative sizes of the accounts? Like this:
Taxable account @ (name of fund firm), xx%
His 401k, yy%
His traditional IRA @ Vanguard, zz%
Total = 100%
by ruralavalon
Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Merrill Edge best choice for higher net worth accounts?
Replies: 39
Views: 4391

Re: Merrill Edge best choice for higher net worth accounts?

I have never had a problem with Vanguard customer service, it has always been prompt, courteous and professional. That's pretty disingenuous. You read the forums enough to know that a LOT of people have been reporting problems. The OP was considering a move, and said "I've heard that [Vanguard] cus...
by ruralavalon
Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are we in an Index fund bubble? Are we irrationally overlooking individual stock analysis?
Replies: 18
Views: 2559

Re: Are we in an Index fund bubble? Are we irrationally overlooking individual stock analysis?

In the "extreme case" everything does fall apart. We are nowhere near an extreme case for index investing. According to Morningstar only about 22% of fund assets are passively invested. doesnt matter to me - if i do as well as the overall market, not better or worse, i will achieve my financial goal...
by ruralavalon
Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tom's First Post needing portfolio help
Replies: 12
Views: 1327

Re: Tom's First Post needing portfolio help

Welcome to the forum :) . It's great to see that you have no consumer debt, and that you are using tax-advantaged accounts and broadly diversified index funds with low expense ratios. It looks like you are off to a good start. Please add any new information to your original post using the edit butto...
by ruralavalon
Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Advice
Replies: 2
Views: 222

Re: Portfolio Advice

Welcome to the forum :) . I agree that starting an IRA for her is a top priority. Use a low cost provider, like Vanguard or Fidelity. I agree that all new contributions should be invested in broadly diversified index funds with low expense ratios. Broad diversification is to reduce risk, low expense...
by ruralavalon
Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with young family portfolio
Replies: 12
Views: 986

Re: Help with young family portfolio

Thanks everyone for the helpful and encouraging replies! I updated my original post with most of the additional information requested. Couple of highlights: (1) My company doesn’t do a match - it’s a profit sharing contribution so I receive this regardless of my deferral rate (2) As far as the car ...
by ruralavalon
Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newbie - Company 401k Fund selection
Replies: 8
Views: 449

Re: Newbie - Company 401k Fund selection

Thank you so much for the replies! Yes, I will switch my Roth IRA funds with vanguard from total US stocks to international stocks as I don't have international diversification and there's no need to wait for this diversification. Only the most recent contributions making up 3-4% of my 401k were do...
by ruralavalon
Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 40 years old. Need advises on asset allocation
Replies: 3
Views: 649

Re: 40 years old. Need advises on asset allocation

I am 40 year old and my wife is 38. We have two kids 7 and 6 years old. As a family - 120k in Savings Acc Remaining Mortgage principal - 174k at 4.00%, 30 year fixed started in 2012) Tax filing - MFJ State - CT Total combined annual family income - 132K + 105K = 237K. There is some company bonus of...
by ruralavalon
Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I'm hooked
Replies: 22
Views: 3822

Re: I'm hooked

Welcome to the forum :) .
by ruralavalon
Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newbie - Company 401k Fund selection
Replies: 8
Views: 449

Re: Newbie - Company 401k Fund selection

I think you are right to do Roth 401k contributions until your income accelerates. In the 401k I suggest switching both the existing balances and future contributions to; 1) Vanguard Institutional Index CIT, ER 0.014%; 2) Fidelity International Index Fund Institutional Premium (FSPSX) ER 0.045%; and...
by ruralavalon
Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another 401k Options Post. Please Help!
Replies: 4
Views: 242

Re: Another 401k Options Post. Please Help!

Thanks for the reply, Yes, I do have access to cheap bond indices in my HSA and my IRAs. I guess I don't really understand the potential negative implications when it comes time to withdraw funds from the various accounts if I have a 401k with 100% stocks and an HSA and IRAs with almost 100% bonds....
by ruralavalon
Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA is much harder than I thought...
Replies: 29
Views: 3340

Re: AA is much harder than I thought...

I'm 33 and have only been in the markets about a year. I'm doing my best to learn from the masters -- my first investing read was Common Sense and I just finished The Four Pillars . Those were excellent choices for books to read. Everything I have learned tells me that I should be buying bonds righ...
by ruralavalon
Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Company 401k - is this optimal?
Replies: 8
Views: 566

Re: Company 401k - is this optimal?

Hi all, Is $18.5k. I joined a new company last week. They offer 401k through Vanguard, but no company match, though. The following are the options. The ones with the CURRENT % are the ones I selected. I can change them anytime. I have 2 questions - 1. is my allocation optimal? I impossible to guess...
by ruralavalon
Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another 401k Options Post. Please Help!
Replies: 4
Views: 242

Re: Another 401k Options Post. Please Help!

Hello I am trying to achieve a 50/30/20 ratio of total market index/total bond index/total world index. I have access to a taxable account, an HSA, 2 IRAs and a 401k that will be starting in a few months due to a job switch. My concern is the options for the bond funds in the 401k. I'm not sure the...
by ruralavalon
Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CDs & Savings as a substitute for bonds or bond funds
Replies: 20
Views: 2198

Re: CDs & Savings as a substitute for bonds or bond funds

pfb3326 wrote:
Sun Jan 14, 2018 9:17 pm
Are CDs and savings accounts acceptable alternatives to bonds or bond funds for the fixed income portion of a portfolio? This would seem reasonable to me at times of rising rates when you have about a ten year horizon or am I missing something? Thanks.
Yes.
by ruralavalon
Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: how to figure out the assest allocation that you can sleep well with
Replies: 22
Views: 1829

Re: how to figure out the assest allocation that you can sleep well with

I'm currently at 70/30 (stock/bond) allocation. I know I shouldn't time the market and should stay the course. But I still have this itch to reduce my stock exposure because market is at all time high. I'm wondering if I'm feeling the itch because my assest allocation is too risky? So in that case ...
by ruralavalon
Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Adding 200k to Portfolio, don't want boring old VTSAX again -your criticism, suggestion for a little extra risk?
Replies: 39
Views: 4248

Re: Adding 200k to Portfolio, don't want boring old VTSAX again -your criticism, suggestion for a little extra risk?

Hi Bogleheads community, I'm looking to add 200k to my investment portfolio and have this itch to take a little more risk with the money. I'm willing to take more risk with this new money because I already have a 3fund. I am 29 and won't need access to this money for a while (20+ years). I know the...
by ruralavalon
Sun Jan 14, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Merrill Edge best choice for higher net worth accounts?
Replies: 39
Views: 4391

Re: Merrill Edge best choice for higher net worth accounts?

Just remember the free trades and perks are marketing schemes and they can change at any time. I left Schwab in 2003 because they started charging an annual fee on accounts under $100K. Today I have a lot more than that but I still don't have any money at Schwab because they basically told me I was...
by ruralavalon
Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to see YTD% at Vanguard
Replies: 22
Views: 1925

Re: How to see YTD% at Vanguard

Vanguard does not display the YTD/custom range returns in %; its always in $; Yes and this is very frustrating. Quite Bush League of them. It is very easy to put your portfolio in Morningstar and you get a YTD computation for your portfolio. I don't think it that big of a deal that Vanguard does no...
by ruralavalon
Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K: Should I manage this myself?
Replies: 17
Views: 1057

Re: 401K: Should I manage this myself?

In the second option, (Vanguard funds) the better choice at age 28 would probably be : Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth Fund (VASGX), which has an asset allocation of 80% stocks and 20% bonds. Can you list the funds available in the third option (completely self directed)? Do you have an asset allocati...
by ruralavalon
Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 103
Views: 7661

Re: Heading for a top?

We are up what, 150% in 10 years since the last high in 2007? That doesn't exactly strike me as unsustainable returns. Worth holding for the next 100% even if we have to take 10 years to get there. Companies are making bank right now, the whole point in owning stocks it to share in those profits. V...
by ruralavalon
Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's trivial to outperform Vanguard Total Bond Index for 2018 with same risk!
Replies: 27
Views: 5301

Re: It's trivial to outperform Vanguard Total Bond Index for 2018 with same risk!

YTD is a stupid way to measure performance. It starts out really stupid, then by the end of the year it's almost not stupid any more, and then it resets to being really stupid again. cute... And yet this thread has over 1700 posts: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=145610 And most of...
by ruralavalon
Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Movies of 2017
Replies: 17
Views: 1273

Re: Best Movies of 2017

We are so out of touch :( .

The only movie mentioned which we have seen is Dunkirk. I do think it is a good movie.
by ruralavalon
Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with young family portfolio
Replies: 12
Views: 986

Re: Help with young family portfolio

Welcome to the forum :) . It's always good to see someone starting young, getting debt under control, and being serious about their finances. Long time lurker - first time poster... I’m looking for some advice about my next step. I’ll admit most of the numbers I see on here are huge (it seems everyo...
by ruralavalon
Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rethinking the use of Vanguard Total Bond Fund in my 3 Fund Porfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 870

Re: Rethinking the use of Vanguard Total Bond Fund in my 3 Fund Porfolio

I'm revisiting my bond strategy. I have never been enamored by the Vanguard Total Bond Market Fund in the way I have by Vanguard's Total Stock Index Fund and Total International Stock Index Fund, but have had a hard time articulating, even to myself, why this is the case. But I think it's largely b...
by ruralavalon
Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VIIIX vs other stock fund for employer retirement plan
Replies: 2
Views: 170

Re: VIIIX vs other stock fund for employer retirement plan

You are already 90% stocks. That's plenty. Adding more is a bad idea in my opinion.
by ruralavalon
Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me pick a bond fund
Replies: 19
Views: 1437

Re: Help me pick a bond fund

I still feel that the Virtue Seis intermediate-term bond fund is the better bond fund in your 403b. The fund is overweight in AAA credit quality U.S. government bonds, compared to its benchmark, and Argentine bonds are just 5.16% of the fund (see the "portfolio" tab for the fund on Morningstar). If ...
by ruralavalon
Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Employer New 401K
Replies: 4
Views: 297

Re: New Employer New 401K

The target date fund with an expense ratio of 0.06% looks like a good choice. If you want individual funds and a custom asset allocation, then I suggest: 1) Vanguard Institutional Index Fund (a S&P 500 index fund), ER 0.04%; 2) State Street Global Equity EX-U.S. Index Fund, ER 0.156%; and 3) Dodge &...
by ruralavalon
Sat Jan 13, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: question about VBTLX
Replies: 27
Views: 1553

Re: question about VBTLX

Morningstar's performance table shows shows a 1 year return of 2.54%. That is a total return number, dividend yield plus any increase in Net Asset Value minus expense ratio. No, the fund's dividend yield already accounts for the expenses (for the expense ratio) being taken out. Or you could say the...
by ruralavalon
Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: question about VBTLX
Replies: 27
Views: 1553

Re: question about VBTLX

I am looking at VBTLX - Vanguard Total Bond Market fund and noticed that it returned 0.94% last year which is lower than some CDs right now. Ally no penalty CD (which can be broken without penalty after around 6 days) is returning 1.6%. Am I missing something here? Does the .94% not include taxable...
by ruralavalon
Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the long term average nominal yield of the total bond market index fund ?
Replies: 27
Views: 1215

Re: What is the long term average nominal yield of the total bond market index fund ?

investing1012 wrote:
Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:14 pm
I wanted the information regarding return.
The Morningstar "growth of 10k" graph gives total return net of expenses.

The "performance" table right below the graph gives annualized returns.
by ruralavalon
Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for advice for new 401k fund choices
Replies: 3
Views: 245

Re: Looking for advice for new 401k fund choices

Welcome to the forum :) . Fidelity 500 Index Fund Premium Class ER 0.035% covers 81% of the U.S. stock market, stocks of larger companies. Fidelity Extended Market Index Fund Premium Class ER 0.07% covers 19% of the U.S. stock market, stocks of smaller companies. Fidelity Total Market Index Fund Pre...
by ruralavalon
Sat Jan 13, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Company 401K Fund Change
Replies: 9
Views: 525

Re: Company 401K Fund Change

I would not use either Fidelity Low-Priced Stock Fund, ER 0.58% or TransAmerica Mid Cap Value Fund, ER 0.86%. I think you have made a good choice in Vanguard Institutional Trust Target Retirement 2050 (VTRLX) ER 0.09%, so you could just use that by itself. If you want to switch to separate funds, th...
by ruralavalon
Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me pick a bond fund
Replies: 19
Views: 1437

Re: Help me pick a bond fund

. . . . . I have an aversion to actively-managed funds, but the bond funds seem to have higher returns than the stable value. Like you my preference is a good index fund rather than a good actively managed fund. Also the primary purpose of a bond allocation is to provide portfolio safety and volati...
by ruralavalon
Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K: Should I manage this myself?
Replies: 17
Views: 1057

Re: 401K: Should I manage this myself?

In the second option, (Vanguard funds) the better choice at age 28 would probably be : Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth Fund (VASGX), which has an asset allocation of 80% stocks and 20% bonds. Can you list the funds available in the third option (completely self directed)? Do you have an asset allocati...