Search found 1904 matches

by just frank
Mon Mar 18, 2024 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have any of you Frugal Zebras Changed Your (Spending) Stripes?
Replies: 129
Views: 10620

Re: Have any of you Frugal Zebras Changed Your (Spending) Stripes?

I guess one thing I always had in my head was the power of compound interest....

If I assume that any saved/invested funds double (in real term) every 15 years, then:

A dollar I spend on my retirement day is worth $1.
A dollar I spend 15 years before retirement is worth $2 at retirement.
A dollar I spend 30 years before retirement is worth $4 at retirement.

That $16 cocktail when I'm 40 yo feels like spending $64 for a cocktail!! :oops:

even more if I think about tax advantages.

If I assume I will value a purchase or service as much when I retire as I do beforehand... then I feel a pressure to not spend when young.

But that pressure abates exponentially the closer I get to retirement (currently about 14 years away).
by just frank
Sun Mar 17, 2024 9:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The best game-changing financial advice you ever received (or "discovered")
Replies: 120
Views: 11092

Re: The best game-changing financial advice you ever received (or "discovered")

Why do divorce lawyers cost so much? Because they are worth every penny.
by just frank
Sun Mar 17, 2024 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Yearly AC tune up?
Replies: 14
Views: 1941

Re: Yearly AC tune up?

I have a heat pump which runs a lot more than a central AC, and I skip the annual checkups. I change the filters a few times a year (reminded by the smart stat) and hose off the outdoor coil every couple years.

All the tuneup does is monitor the refrigerant pressure, and that is a very imperfect way to estimate the refrigerant charge.

I do measure the output temps of my system at a common outdoor temp to see that it is performing to 'spec', maybe once or twice a year.

+1 on keeping a capacitor on hand (if you're handy). I didn't do that and the service call (in February) was $300.
by just frank
Sun Mar 17, 2024 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?
Replies: 302
Views: 27385

Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Side note, question for those who might know. If AI has actually evolved emergent understanding and is improving at such a rapid pace, why do AI-generated images still have such trouble counting fingers and legs? Why haven't they learned from Wikipedia that The human hand usually has five digits and learned how to apply this fact? They are supposed to be able to write code, why can't they write "Do hand = new object. Draw(hand). If digits(hand)=5 then exit else repeat." Me: "Show me a picture of six people waving their hands enthusiastically." Microsoft Bing Copilot: For that matter, there's also a problem with "six." Clearly AI's have not (yet) learned to count on their fingers and toes. Like even a toddler c...
by just frank
Sun Mar 17, 2024 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?
Replies: 302
Views: 27385

Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

The big picture is that the per capita productivity of the economy grows continuously. This leads to the same positive real returns that index investors can profit from. Historically, this continuous upward (productivity of capital) curve has been called progress . At the same time, that productivity gain has improved the human condition. Over the span of centuries, the amount of progress has been enormous, and hard for us moderns to wrap our heads around. We live lives that would have be that of royalty a few centuries ago! So the essential questions are (1) how much longer can this continue? and (2) is the trend speeding up, slowing down, or is it exponential? Question (1) is nobody knows. Clearly it can't go to infinity, right? Question ...
by just frank
Sat Mar 16, 2024 6:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I will need a new car or repair one
Replies: 46
Views: 1913

Re: I will need a new car or repair one

What is comparable Japanese car that is being considered? Model Y is good but drive it and see if it works for you. For me it has a few deal breakers like the harsh suspension and no sunroof shade. Also had someone mention the seat foam is not very durable. I would want to wait till the refresh before considering the M-Y because I think they will soften the ride. BMW are money pits and they aren’t even fun to drive anymore. So I would get rid of it. Agree. Model Y refresh coming in late 2024. So you can likely get the older model marked down before the rollout, or get a much better vehicle after. Can you limp the existing car for a year? That is, is it just squeaks at this time? Just squeaks at the moment. I think i will try to limp it for...
by just frank
Sat Mar 16, 2024 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I will need a new car or repair one
Replies: 46
Views: 1913

Re: I will need a new car or repair one

Tesla Model Y vs Comparable Japanese Car Which one would you go for??? What is comparable Japanese car that is being considered? Model Y is good but drive it and see if it works for you. For me it has a few deal breakers like the harsh suspension and no sunroof shade. Also had someone mention the seat foam is not very durable. I would want to wait till the refresh before considering the M-Y because I think they will soften the ride. BMW are money pits and they aren’t even fun to drive anymore. So I would get rid of it. Agree. Model Y refresh coming in late 2024. So you can likely get the older model marked down before the rollout, or get a much better vehicle after. Can you limp the existing car for a year? That is, is it just squeaks at t...
by just frank
Sat Mar 16, 2024 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Older jobless sibling with a daughter and an inheritance - thoughts on managing it
Replies: 31
Views: 2718

Re: Older jobless sibling with a daughter and an inheritance - thoughts on managing it

Sorry for your loss and the situation.

Has OP considered the possibility that brother will sue OP for the house? On the grounds that parents told him he could have it when they passed, or some other nonsense? Even if there are no grounds, he might be assuming that siblings will concede it he makes a big enough stink, and plays the 'poor me and me daughter' game.

I have seen similar happen.
by just frank
Sat Mar 16, 2024 9:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Utilities cost?
Replies: 57
Views: 4073

Re: Utilities cost?

My 2200 sq ft house (and car) are all electric. I use about 14,600 kWh/year (and drive about 9000 miles). Maybe 12,000 kWh without counting the car.

My average monthly elec bill is $220, or $180/mo without the car. 2/3rds of that is heating and cooling.

My water bill is about $40 more.
by just frank
Sat Mar 16, 2024 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I will need a new car or repair one
Replies: 46
Views: 1913

Re: I will need a new car or repair one

Tesla Model Y vs Comparable Japanese Car Which one would you go for??? What is comparable Japanese car that is being considered? Model Y is good but drive it and see if it works for you. For me it has a few deal breakers like the harsh suspension and no sunroof shade. Also had someone mention the seat foam is not very durable. I would want to wait till the refresh before considering the M-Y because I think they will soften the ride. BMW are money pits and they aren’t even fun to drive anymore. So I would get rid of it. Agree. Model Y refresh coming in late 2024. So you can likely get the older model marked down before the rollout, or get a much better vehicle after. Can you limp the existing car for a year? That is, is it just squeaks at t...
by just frank
Fri Mar 15, 2024 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?
Replies: 302
Views: 27385

Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

I accept that entirely. Once that starts happening I think you’ll see what a tiny fraction of human productivity purely intellectual tasks are. Health care might have some interesting exceptions just because of how much doctors are paid. People keep reiterating how AI will make scientific discoveries. These people have evidently never had to make a scientific discovery. There are millions of examples of AI discovering new materials, new solutions to mathematical problems, AI famously solved the protein folding problem, that biologists had never been able to solve. Um, that's far from correct. Physics based models for protein folding have gotten pretty good after much effort. And the AI protein folding models are extrapolating from experime...
by just frank
Fri Mar 15, 2024 9:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Getting new car
Replies: 53
Views: 6233

Re: Getting new car

I am a Toyota outlier. My ex-wife and I drove two gently used Toyota's back in the day (a '94 Corolla and an '05 Camry). Both were terrible cars. Now I would say lemons. Spent thousands getting major repairs on both, check engine lights coming on all the time. The '94 had some thermostat problem I guess (after 140 k miles) that led to the engine running cold and I logged it getting about 14 mpg in city driving. The Camry got about 20 mpg in city, 27 on the HW, and we ditched it before it reached 100k miles. Around here I see that this sort of thing never happens, and these cars can propel you around for decades with no (unscheduled) maintenance while sipping gas. I'll pass. What do you drive now? I have owned 4 EVs since then, a 2013 LEAF,...
by just frank
Fri Mar 15, 2024 5:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Getting new car
Replies: 53
Views: 6233

Re: Getting new car

I am a Toyota outlier. My ex-wife and I drove two gently used Toyota's back in the day (a '94 Corolla and an '05 Camry). Both were terrible cars. Now I would say lemons. Spent thousands getting major repairs on both, check engine lights coming on all the time. The '94 had some thermostat problem I guess (after 140 k miles) that led to the engine running cold and I logged it getting about 14 mpg in city driving. The Camry got about 20 mpg in city, 27 on the HW, and we ditched it before it reached 100k miles.

Around here I see that this sort of thing never happens, and these cars can propel you around for decades with no (unscheduled) maintenance while sipping gas. I'll pass.
by just frank
Wed Mar 13, 2024 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Preparing for Marriage
Replies: 47
Views: 4721

Re: Preparing for Marriage

Agreed there. I make it very clear on my goals for the future and show her what we need to do to achieve them and how much needs to go where. I am definitely the more financially savvy one and these types of things is what I genuinely enjoy doing. I have no problem creating a budget and enforcing saving/paying down debt to the tune of 'we can't go out to eat tonight because we are over our budget for the month and would have to dip into savings'. She may not like it, but it's for the better. Oh, wow. No. Way off. These are decisions y’all need to make together if you want this thing to work out This. If OP wants to overpower his wife, then stop and don’t get married. A lot of fiance's are very agreeable before marriage, and then turn out t...
by just frank
Wed Mar 13, 2024 5:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Preparing for Marriage
Replies: 47
Views: 4721

Re: Preparing for Marriage

Agreed there. I make it very clear on my goals for the future and show her what we need to do to achieve them and how much needs to go where. I am definitely the more financially savvy one and these types of things is what I genuinely enjoy doing. I have no problem creating a budget and enforcing saving/paying down debt to the tune of 'we can't go out to eat tonight because we are over our budget for the month and would have to dip into savings'. She may not like it, but it's for the better. Oh, wow. No. Way off. These are decisions y’all need to make together if you want this thing to work out This. If OP wants to overpower his wife, then stop and don’t get married. A lot of fiance's are very agreeable before marriage, and then turn out t...
by just frank
Tue Mar 12, 2024 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?
Replies: 302
Views: 27385

Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

The concept of Artificial Intelligence has long been with us. In the Iliad, Hephaistos was described as having robot helpers in his workshop. These were in the form of young women, and fashioned of gold:

There were golden handmaids also who worked for him, and were like real young women, with sense and reason [noos], voice also and strength, [420] and all the learning of the immortals; these busied themselves as the king bade them…

Iliad 18.417–421

The greek word used was 'automata', and these stories were part of an oral tradition that predate the written Old Testament.

Should we be surprised that the idea still captures our imagination in 2024 as it did 3000 years ago?
by just frank
Tue Mar 12, 2024 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?
Replies: 302
Views: 27385

Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

. This is an algorithm that's never been programmed to do things like that – it means it's able to juggle abstract concepts and use some kind of imagination – and this has emerged in ways no one really understands .. If you don't get why that's a huge leap, you probably never will .. Exactly! It is the emergent behavior of these systems that is super interesting (and makes them very difficult to debug too). After all, you are talking about systems with many billions of parameters. Rule base systems like LISA (Weizenbaum) could already do a very effective job of therapy in the 70's. Modern nnets are way more than any of that - they aren't even algos in the traditional sense. As most of you likely already know, nnets already passed the US Me...
by just frank
Tue Mar 12, 2024 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Preparing for Marriage
Replies: 47
Views: 4721

Re: Preparing for Marriage

windaar wrote: Sat Mar 09, 2024 2:58 pm Be prepared to give more than you take and you will be happy. And keep your vows.
Didn't work for me. Two times.

10% of people (men and women) have personality disorders that lead them to be deceptive in intimate relationships. These can be detected pre marriage, but most often are not.
by just frank
Tue Mar 12, 2024 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Preparing for Marriage
Replies: 47
Views: 4721

Re: Preparing for Marriage

Prenup. Not kidding. +1 #1 best piece of advice you can get here. The most important form of financial insurance and far more consequential than your asset allocation imo. In modern times, it should have no stigma. I know several recent divorcees, ALL of them will insist on a prenup next time around. I have never met someone that regretted asking for a prenup. You also have far more in assets than the person you are marrying. I would wager the student loans are more than their entire net worth. I have a friend that just shortly before getting married found out his soon to be wife has $350k in student debt. Just sort of forgot about it I guess. You can look at any stats you want, but I think everyone would agree without knowing specifics, t...
by just frank
Tue Mar 12, 2024 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Preparing for Marriage
Replies: 47
Views: 4721

Re: Preparing for Marriage

Marriage advice from a twice divorced man... take it for what it is. :beer read about attachment styles: https://www.helpguide.org/articles/relationships-communication/attachment-and-adult-relationships.htm basically, about 50% of humans are 'secure' attachers. Secure attachers are pretty good at finding other secure attachers (rather, rejecting the other types), so close to half of first marriages are between two secures. Fun fact, these secure-secure marriages have a lifetime divorce rate in the low singe digits. These are the marriages that everyone wants to have. If you and your bride are both secure attachers, then mazel tov. You have it made . Be a good husband to her and she will be a good wife to you. Note that the overall lifetime ...
by just frank
Sun Mar 10, 2024 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have any of you Frugal Zebras Changed Your (Spending) Stripes?
Replies: 129
Views: 10620

Re: Have any of you Frugal Zebras Changed Your (Spending) Stripes?

Once the rate of increase in my savings started to significantly outpace my savings rate (I'm 55, that was a few years back) I stopped sweating the small stuff.
by just frank
Sun Mar 10, 2024 6:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best < $100 purchase?
Replies: 299
Views: 55784

Re: Best < $100 purchase?

A useful rechargeable flashlight that is actually small enough for a keychain:

https://www.amazon.com/OLIGHT-Rechargea ... BMLDV?th=1

Its about as big as the end of my pinky finger. And about 4X brighter than a phone flashlight, and better directed (for 20 minutes). Uses a USB-C charger, not included.

Very handy for finding small objects dropped in dark places, viewing small parts with old eyes, walking in unexpected dark areas, and signaling low flying aircraft.
by just frank
Fri Mar 08, 2024 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?
Replies: 302
Views: 27385

Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

Yes. A smartphone replaces so much as well. It's a hifi, computer, library, sat nav, TV, VCR, editing suite, recording studio, DSLR, movie camera, games console, etc. Arguable. The built-in speaker in a smartphone is a very poor substitute for a hi-fi system. As a computer, it is much less usable due to input devices constraints. A small touch screen is much less reliable than a physical keyboard. It definitely does a good job as sat nav. For TV, the screen is far too small. The camera optics don't come close to a DSLR Not to say it is useless. I did type this post on a smartphone. But it is not a replacement. More of a complement. And CDs were a poor replacement for vinyl and quarter inch tape .. I remember going to a studio with a Studer...
by just frank
Fri Mar 08, 2024 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?
Replies: 302
Views: 27385

Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

What I remember about F-451 is the wife is addicted to social media. Those old Futurists were just uncanny. When it comes to brain chemicals, though, it's different this time. At least I can say I'm different this time, and I'm pretty sure it's not just me. Before Facebook... it was People magazine, and gossiping over the neighbors fence. Humans ARE changing... our attention spans are getting shorter. Like look at the length of time that a given camera shot is in a movie these days, versus the 1940s. Like 5 seconds versus 50. That futurist Marx argued that humans were inseparable from our technology. Change the technology, change the human. One effect of this is productivity gains, which is a quantifiable metric showing clear 'progress'. W...
by just frank
Thu Mar 07, 2024 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?
Replies: 302
Views: 27385

Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

faanger101 wrote: Thu Mar 07, 2024 11:16 pm
just frank wrote: Tue Feb 27, 2024 10:25 am
WhitePuma wrote: Tue Feb 27, 2024 10:17 am
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 2:26 pm I remember a dumb idea I heard back in the 90s. Tech folks were going to create a much smaller handheld device that combined TV, computer, radio and phone (awkward!), that you could bring with you anywhere, even get a call on top of a mountain.

Absurd! Who would want something like that? /s
Well, it has ruined society, ruined normal social functioning and relationships, turned everyone into screen jockeys, made kids lazy, and generally made people dumber.
Source?
Try the following (but be careful!) - slowly open the door, step outside, and see the modern ppl :mrgreen:
I do. We must live in different worlds. I remember the 1900s, and I see the kids nowadays. And my observations are the opposite of those stated.
by just frank
Thu Mar 07, 2024 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?
Replies: 302
Views: 27385

Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

So an AI superintelligence will be able to form new insights from existing scientific data, like another Einstein. That will be super exciting and freak out scientists. But then it will hit a wall, and be limited by new data. Kinda like how LLMs, when they were finally fed the entire internet of data (at the cost of billions of $ of compute) gave us ChatGPTx. But now future breakthroughs will require MORE DATA. Where is that going to come from? Probably some combination of synthetic data, simulations and reward functions. Consider how Deep Mind tackled chess. They simply taught the AI the basic rules of chess and let it play millions of games against an adversarial AI. The reward function was a checkmate. Fast forward two days, and the AI ...
by just frank
Mon Mar 04, 2024 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?
Replies: 302
Views: 27385

Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

So an AI superintelligence will be able to form new insights from existing scientific data, like another Einstein. That will be super exciting and freak out scientists. But then it will hit a wall, and be limited by new data. Kinda like how LLMs, when they were finally fed the entire internet of data (at the cost of billions of $ of compute) gave us ChatGPTx. But now future breakthroughs will require MORE DATA. Where is that going to come from? Probably some combination of synthetic data, simulations and reward functions. Consider how Deep Mind tackled chess. They simply taught the AI the basic rules of chess and let it play millions of games against an adversarial AI. The reward function was a checkmate. Fast forward two days, and the AI ...
by just frank
Mon Mar 04, 2024 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?
Replies: 302
Views: 27385

Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

The internet didn’t fundamentally change things, it just created new ways to process and distribute information. AI has the promise to fundamentally change everything and the ultimate goal is to create minds as good as or smarter than humans. I think AI has much loftier goals and a potential to achieve them. There is also a lot more money involved this time and the players are the most profitable companies in the world. wikipedia changed things, fundamentally. Google, also - at least in its earlier versions. "new ways to process and distribute information". Well, that's true of most human innovations: speech, writing on clay tablets, pony riders in Persia, writing on paper, Arabic numerals, the printing press, the telegraphy, rad...
by just frank
Sun Mar 03, 2024 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question about Solar panels
Replies: 92
Views: 6284

Re: Question about Solar panels

.... I use an inverter like that on my Bolt EV 12V system, 2000 W peak, 1200 W continuous rating. And I can leave my EV in the attached garage when I'm using it. It was $300 for a sine wave model. If the Bolt is fully charged, I can get about 40 kWh out at 120VAC. Wait, so you are saying you just connect a power inverter to the 12v battery of your Bolt EV, and this allows you to pull energy from the large high voltage battery of the EV? If so, this could power refrigerator/small appliances/lights during outage? We have two EV's neither of which have V2H capability. This sounds interesting. Yes. The 12V system is energized by a DC-DC converter from the traction battery whenever an EV is in 'Drive' or 'Ready'. Hooked up to a 12V sine wave in...
by just frank
Sun Mar 03, 2024 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When do electric cars stop making sense?
Replies: 210
Views: 16093

Re: When do electric cars stop making sense?

fortunefavored wrote: Sun Mar 03, 2024 3:55 pm I think this thread has probably run its course. :)
I appreciate your transparency about what you are looking for and not looking for. :beer

I switched bc of the insane cheap kWh, my personal and OT climate concerns, and the fact that my two Toyotas were both lemons that were always in the shop and needed thousands in repairs. :oops:
by just frank
Sun Mar 03, 2024 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When do electric cars stop making sense?
Replies: 210
Views: 16093

Re: When do electric cars stop making sense?

Hi. The point being it is not clear are ev better than ice environmentally and if so how much. The environmental cost of production is 100 percent at birth. The longer it lives the more annual cost to run becomes the primary issue. I read the environmental costs even out at about 70,000 miles but these are all made up numbers as far as I’m concerned. The thought process is what I’m arguing not the exact numbers. Really? If you can compute compound interest, you can do this. To emit a metric ton of CO2, you need to burn about 80 gallons of gasoline. That's chemistry, with a 20% penalty for oil extraction and refining. A kWh of 2023 average US electricity leads to the emissions of 400 g of CO2. A number that is well known, and still falling....
by just frank
Sun Mar 03, 2024 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When do electric cars stop making sense?
Replies: 210
Views: 16093

Re: When do electric cars stop making sense?

Hi. The point being it is not clear are ev better than ice environmentally and if so how much. The environmental cost of production is 100 percent at birth. The longer it lives the more annual cost to run becomes the primary issue. I read the environmental costs even out at about 70,000 miles but these are all made up numbers as far as I’m concerned. The thought process is what I’m arguing not the exact numbers. Really? If you can compute compound interest, you can do this. To emit a metric ton of CO2, you need to burn about 80 gallons of gasoline. That's chemistry, with a 20% penalty for oil extraction and refining. A kWh of 2023 average US electricity leads to the emissions of 400 g of CO2. A number that is well known, and still falling....
by just frank
Sun Mar 03, 2024 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question about Solar panels
Replies: 92
Views: 6284

Re: Question about Solar panels

If a portable generator is too muc bother (maintenance for example) and you do not want an EV which has the capability to feed the house (not all have this) , there is one other option, though I have never tried it, and have no endorsement of it: CarGenerator Basically just a pure sine wave inverter made easy to hook to your car battery. This allows you to have a generator that is easy to start and is maintained, you just hang it on the front of the car and hook clamps like jumper cables on the battery. Caveats: the model for all weather is much more expensive ,but needed in bad weather. You must run the car out of and well away from the house (to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning) It provides only a small amount of power You will likely nee...
by just frank
Sat Mar 02, 2024 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Question about Solar panels
Replies: 92
Views: 6284

Re: Question about Solar panels

Years ago in a similar situation I just got a small cheap gasoline generator and ran cords into my house to run the fridge, wifi, lights, etc. I got a propane camp stove for cooking on. It was under $500 all in and worked like a charm.

I already had a woodstove for backup heat.

Now I run all that stuff off my EV instead. In 10 years, many will have EVs with backup power solutions built in, so it is tempting to wait, IMO.
by just frank
Sat Mar 02, 2024 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Neighbor Got Burglarized, How To Prevent
Replies: 74
Views: 8327

Re: Neighbor Got Burglarized, How To Prevent

Nicolas wrote: Sat Mar 02, 2024 1:21 pm I use this Fake TV. I put it in a back second story window. It works like a charm — all burglars deterred! :D
We used one of these years ago. When we went out of town (telling our neighbors beforehand) they texted us that evening to say that someone was having a Disco party in our house. :D
by just frank
Fri Mar 01, 2024 4:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When do electric cars stop making sense?
Replies: 210
Views: 16093

Re: When do electric cars stop making sense?

With current PG&E rates up to .40 to .50/kwh What is your off-peak rate? The majority of your at-home charging should be occurring during off-peak hours. This has been asked and answered numerous times Not really. OP says it doesn't 'pencil out' to pay higher rates during peak times. There are many people in CA who DO have EVs, and who DO have PG&E for whom EVs seem like an OK purchase. This is OP's question... how do they do that? We can assume all those people are foolish, spending more money on EVs than they would on gasoline. But in the EV fora I read it seems that most of the EV drivers are using TOU rates, and making that 'pencil out' for them. Lots of ways to shift loads to out of peak times, and most utilities can tell you ...
by just frank
Fri Mar 01, 2024 5:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Neighbor Got Burglarized, How To Prevent
Replies: 74
Views: 8327

Re: Neighbor Got Burglarized, How To Prevent

In my case, it helps that my house is about 500 yards from the Town police station.

When we still had an alarm and accidentally triggered it once, the police were there in less than 90 seconds.

I often forget to lock my doors. :?
by just frank
Thu Feb 29, 2024 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Neighbor Got Burglarized, How To Prevent
Replies: 74
Views: 8327

Re: Neighbor Got Burglarized, How To Prevent

I'm always a fan of:

1) having a rustbucket car parked in the driveway, or better, the front lawn.
2) leaving a radio blaring when you are on vacation.
by just frank
Thu Feb 29, 2024 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When do electric cars stop making sense?
Replies: 210
Views: 16093

Re: When do electric cars stop making sense?

You should inquire if PG&E has a discounted rate for EV charging.... https://www.pge.com/en/account/rate-plans/find-your-best-rate-plan/electric-vehicles.html#ev2adetails Did you look at that rate details ? Enjoy paying up to 66 cents/kWh when not charging. It works out if the majority of your electricity consumption is from EV charging. Otherwise it's more likely a wash or an increase. That is how TOU rates work. I know EVs are popular in California, and I think TOU is how many folks make them work. If you have a smart stat and appliances, its not that hard. My (PA) utility Excelon can also look at my last year of data and tell me whether I would have saved on TOU. In my case, it was a wash, with no effort to move demand to favorable ...
by just frank
Thu Feb 29, 2024 6:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When do electric cars stop making sense?
Replies: 210
Views: 16093

Re: When do electric cars stop making sense?

You should inquire if PG&E has a discounted rate for EV charging....

https://www.pge.com/en/account/rate-pla ... v2adetails

Other than that, OP's calculation is sound.
by just frank
Thu Feb 29, 2024 6:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?
Replies: 302
Views: 27385

Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

I was thinking of replying again, but felt lazy. So lets ask ChatGPT4 herself! :D Frank:Are there parallels between the current runup in AI-related equities (e.g. NVDA) and the dot-com era (and crash) of the stock market 20 years ago? There are indeed some parallels between the current run-up in AI-related equities, such as Nvidia (NVDA), and the dot-com era of the late 1990s and early 2000s. Here are some similarities and differences: Hype and Speculation: Similar to the dot-com era, there is a significant amount of hype and speculation surrounding AI-related technologies today. Investors are drawn to the potential of AI to revolutionize various industries, leading to high valuations for companies operating in this space. Valuation Concern...
by just frank
Thu Feb 29, 2024 5:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: First Post, Am I too late? [to contribute to a 529 plan?]
Replies: 18
Views: 2539

Re: First Post, Am I too late?

Not too late. I started 529s around the same age for my two kids (more than 10 years ago), and had a nice appreciation (free money) before they hit college.
by just frank
Wed Feb 28, 2024 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?
Replies: 302
Views: 27385

Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

The internet didn’t fundamentally change things, it just created new ways to process and distribute information. AI has the promise to fundamentally change everything and the ultimate goal is to create minds as good as or smarter than humans. I think AI has much loftier goals and a potential to achieve them. There is also a lot more money involved this time and the players are the most profitable companies in the world. wikipedia changed things, fundamentally. Google, also - at least in its earlier versions. "new ways to process and distribute information". Well, that's true of most human innovations: speech, writing on clay tablets, pony riders in Persia, writing on paper, Arabic numerals, the printing press, the telegraphy, rad...
by just frank
Wed Feb 28, 2024 12:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: North East Heat pump + oil backup feedback
Replies: 45
Views: 4266

Re: North East Heat pump + oil backup feedback

I transitioned from oil heat to HP+oil aux to HP+elec aux more than a decade ago. A key factor is sizing your heat pump (how many tons) such that it can keep up down to a bit below your average January temps. If you know your seasonal oil usage in gallons and your seasonal heating degree days, you can convert to kBTU/HDD, which is a measure of how much heat your house requires per heating degree day. A gallon of oil is, I think 110-115k BTU when you derate for efficiency. If you wanted to know how much heat your house needed at 20° outside to heat it to 70° inside, that would be you (kBTU/HDD)*(70-20°)/24(hr/day) to get BTU/hr. Goodman has online tech manuals (pick the same SEER level as the Trane) that give BTU/h versus outdoor temps for d...
by just frank
Tue Feb 27, 2024 3:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best water heater with solar
Replies: 55
Views: 5240

Re: Best water heater with solar

But the efficiency gain from a Heat Pump is still very great. The average UK home uses something like 13,000 kwhr pa of gas. About 3k kwhr pa is for heating water (using an indirect boiler system, ie same appliance heats hot water and the water in the rads). US has longer showers etc so it's reasonable to think something like 4-5000 kwhr pa of hot water. So the saving going from 4500 kwhr pa to 1500 kwhr pa is not nothing. At 13 c/ kwhr it would be around $400 pa. Are you just thinking circuit size (amps)? Because with a separate water heater, the HVAC heat pump should be an independent decision from the hot water heating HP decision? Agree on efficiency gains but to what end? More complexity, more initial investment with no payback and a ...
by just frank
Tue Feb 27, 2024 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?
Replies: 302
Views: 27385

Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

WhitePuma wrote: Tue Feb 27, 2024 10:17 am
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 2:26 pm I remember a dumb idea I heard back in the 90s. Tech folks were going to create a much smaller handheld device that combined TV, computer, radio and phone (awkward!), that you could bring with you anywhere, even get a call on top of a mountain.

Absurd! Who would want something like that? /s
Well, it has ruined society, ruined normal social functioning and relationships, turned everyone into screen jockeys, made kids lazy, and generally made people dumber.
Source?
by just frank
Tue Feb 27, 2024 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best water heater with solar
Replies: 55
Views: 5240

Re: Best water heater with solar

I replaced my old-style 50 gal electric water heater with a 50 gal heat pump water heater. AO Smith from Lowes. Quiet, works great. My cost analysis: Heat pump is $6,037.50 cheaper over a 10 year operational life span. Even more savings if it lasts more than 10 years. The purchase price difference was largely wiped out by 30% federal tax credit and utility rebate. Plumbers are not cost accountants. Energy guide annual kWH---Old: 4879, New: 854 Annual running cost @ .15/kWH---Old: $731.85, New: $128.10 Intial purchase cost---Old: $500, New: $1950 30% federal tax credit---Old: $0, New: $525 Subtotal purchase cost:---Old: $500, New: $1365 Utility rebate (Pepco)---Old: $0, New: $700 Net purchase cost---Old: $500, New: $665 I installed it in th...
by just frank
Tue Feb 27, 2024 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best water heater with solar
Replies: 55
Views: 5240

Re: Best water heater with solar

It's going to take 29 KW to equal 100Kbtu or 1 therm of natural gas. Natural gas pretty much is always the cheapest way to heat water. If you are getting paid back what you pay for electricity I would buy the natural gas water heater and collect the check from the energy company. Keep it simple, no high efficiency gas water heater or heat pump.I was in the plumbing trade for 26 years and did the math when I needed to replace a water heater in my house. The only thing that took natural gas in the summer months was the water heater. We ended up spending around $30 month to heat our water. A regular power vented water heater cost about $800, a high efficiency one was $2200. There was no way it would ever pay for itself in the savings. Now if ...
by just frank
Tue Feb 27, 2024 6:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks
Replies: 221
Views: 13736

Re: Heavy Value Tilt Away from Mag 7 stocks

Sure. Its a bet that the next bear market will be in tech, and not 'value'.